art
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Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:38 am

The problems with the A380's weight may or may not be resolved satisfactorily and the aircraft will now be delivered several months late.

I imagine the UPS order for 744F's was negotiated primarily to extend the lifetime of the 747 line by several months, this giving Boeing more time to decide on a 747Adv launch.

Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out? In a few months time the A380 issues may be clearer, putting Boeing in a better position to reappraise what share of the very large aircraft market they could expect the 747Adv to achieve.
 
sean1234
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:43 am

I think Boeing should go for it. The specs on the A380 are only marginally better than the 747Adv, but with much of a weight premium. Maybe someone could post the side by side comparisons again.
 
Dougloid
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:49 am

Udo and Scorpio front and center!

Coffee break's over.  Cool
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
col
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:50 am

I also believe Boeing should go with the 747ADV, primarily in the form of the freighter. They are outselling the 380 in this roll with the 744F, and even with the conversion market, sales are still good.

Col
 
squirrel83
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:53 am

Quoting Art (Thread starter):
I imagine the UPS order for 744F's was negotiated primarily to extend the lifetime of the 747 line by several months, this giving Boeing more time to decide on a 747Adv launch.



Did UPS cancel or replace the A300-600F order with the A380F orders?

http://ups.com/pressroom/corp/press_releases/press

Quoting Sean1234 (Reply 1):
Maybe someone could post the side by side comparisons again.

The Boeing 747-400 freighter has the capacity to carry a structural payload of 250,000 pounds with a range of 4,400 nautical miles.

Although found this site on how the A380F is a poor freighter!
http://www.payloadasia.com/Magazine/archives/05_05/0505_focus.html
“The A380 Makes A Poor Freighter. “Why does the A380 make a poor freighter? Let’s start with poor structural efficiency. Compared to 747-400ERF, for an additional 32 tonnes of payload, the A380 requires 92 tonnes of additional structure (operating empty weight), every day, for every trip.


Edit: Added more information, hopfully helpfull??

[Edited 2005-08-25 19:15:15]
A346, 7E7, 747, 777, Sonic Cruiser
 
art
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:02 am

Hello again all! I was asking if Boeing's strategy is to buy time, not so much to see reactions to the 747Adv proposal, but to see how the A380 turns out.

Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out? In a few months time the A380 issues may be clearer, putting Boeing in a better position to reappraise what share of the very large aircraft market they could expect the 747Adv to achieve.
 
Ken777
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:03 am

I believe that they 747ADV is going to be approved and is going to pull in its fair share of orders. B isn't rushing it, which probably reflects the discussions they are having with airlines on a wide range of aircraft.
 
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garpd
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:07 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 2):
Udo and Scorpio front and center!

Coffee break's over. Cool

We need Keesje too!
No one else posts can misinterpret and spin like he can Big grin
arpdesign.wordpress.com
 
art
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:12 am

Quoting Squirrel83 (Reply 4):
Are you looking from Boeings Context or UPS'? Others have stated the order has been placed for large and heavy loads, that the 777F/A380F would not be able to handle.

I was looking for Boeing's context. No doubt UPS would not have ordered these frames if they did not have a use for them but they may have been induced to order with an exceptional price. B win / UPS win situation, I think.
 
AirRyan
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:13 am

I think the 747ADV is all but a go and would expect it to be officially announced sometime after the official launch of the A350 if for no other reason other than to take some of the hot air out of their bubble.
 
WINGS
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:21 am

Quoting Squirrel83 (Reply 4):

The Boeing 747-400 freighter has the capacity to carry a structural payload of 250,000 pounds with a range of 4,400 nautical miles.

http://www.airbus.com/en/aircraftfam...ies/a380/a380f/specifications.html

The Airbus A380F will be able to transport 152.4 tones (335lbs) over 10.400km (5,600nm).

It seems to me that the Airbus does have a niche market all to its self.

Does anyone have the figures for the B747ADV Freighter?

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
BostonGuy
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:37 am

Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out? In a few months time the A380 issues may be clearer, putting Boeing in a better position to reappraise what share of the very large aircraft market they could expect the 747Adv to achieve.

Boeing buying time? As in the way Airbus bought time waiting to see what response Boeing would get from the 787?

I get the impression Boeing is very confident in their projections for the marketplace and understands that they are doing really well with the 787, in part, because Airbus bought time.

So now, I don't think Boeing is buying time... I think they're making minor tweaks here and there as they stick with their projections (which will, as all projections do, need a few tweaks now and again).
 
Glareskin
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:33 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 2):
Udo and Scorpio front and center!

Coffee break's over.

This is it! You are not only in my respected users list, you are on top..  Big grin

In this sometimes all too serious stuff we need to laugh once in a while, and this is I believe the second message I read from you and I cannot help laughing.  bigthumbsup 
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
Udo
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 5:44 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 2):
Udo and Scorpio front and center!

How about staying on topic?

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 9):
I think the 747ADV is all but a go and would expect it to be officially announced sometime after the official launch of the A350 if for no other reason other than to take some of the hot air out of their bubble.

If it's such a bubble, why would it need a new Boeing model's launch to burst?



Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
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keesje
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:09 am

Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out?

I´m sure they are. If BA, CX and JAL buy the A380 they´ll probably reconsider.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
AirRyan
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:27 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 10):
The Airbus A380F will be able to transport 152.4 tones (335lbs) over 10.400km (5,600nm).

It seems to me that the Airbus does have a niche market all to its self.

That's nice and all but unless you have that thing full everytime your not going to be making money so plan your fleet accordingly. Even still the A380F will not be as easy to load as the 747F with it's swinging nose; remember the 747 was originally designed for military use. Also, the A380F cannot go into as many airfields as a 744F.

Now of course if you have the need for a A380F and utilize it, I would imagine it would be fairly profitable but not as numerously successful as the 747 has been.
 
art
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:53 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Are Boeing buying time to see how the A380 turns out?

I´m sure they are. If BA, CX and JAL buy the A380 they´ll probably reconsider.

You forgot the smiley after BA and JAL, didn't you?

There must be a few potential buyers waiting to see how the A380 works out. If the news is bad, the projected market for very large aircraft will stay the same so the prospects of selling more 747Adv will improve.
 
checkraiser
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 7:00 am

Quoting Udo (Reply 13):
How about staying on topic?

And he delivers!  Big grin
N1120A is a camel-fucking terrorist.
 
ha763
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:02 am

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 15):
remember the 747 was originally designed for military use.

Negative. The 747 grew out of advancements gained through the CX-HLS competition, which became the C-5. The biggest and probably most important advancement was the development of high thrust engines needed to power the C-5. Without these new engines, the 747 would never have left the ground. Boeing went through over 200 different designs before deciding on the 747 we know today. However, the 747 was always designed to be a cargo aircraft because it was thought that supersonic aircraft would soon takeover passenger traffic, relegating subsonic aircraft like the 747 to cargo duty.
 
hz747300
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:11 am

Quoting Ha763 (Reply 18):
because it was thought that supersonic aircraft would soon takeover passenger traffic

Until people started complaining when hearing the sonic booms over their homes... Selfish bastards!  mad 

Boeing can afford to play it wait and see because the airlines are too. Once the Cargolux order goes through, that will push the building forward from there. I expect then the passenger orders will follow closely. However, I am more curious to know what types of variants will be offered with the B747Adv. Will there be a shorter one providing longer range? Will the be a longer one for high density intra-Asian routes? Will it be a flop, and the prototype is retired and the wings are left to serve as a canopy for a gas station in Aquilla Hills, Texas?
Keep on truckin'...
 
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Revelation
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:37 am

Quoting Udo (Reply 13):
How about staying on topic?

Gee, and I always thought you had a good sense of humor, Udo. Anyhow, to stay on topic, I doubt Boeing is "buying time to see how the A380 turns out". B747Adv is a 450 seat plane, A380 is a 550 seat airplane, so they don't directly compete. I imagine Boeing is doing whatever it can to find a market for their 450 seat plane, and they've already said that finding orders for the 744 is important for them in their goal of offering the 747Adv so it's good to see the UPS order.
Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
Some rise, some fall, some climb, to get to Terrapin!
 
Glareskin
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sat Aug 27, 2005 7:14 pm

Quoting Udo (Reply 13):
How about staying on topic?

Verstehen sie Spass?  Wink Come on Udo, you are well respected but this was good fun! And the answer you gave confirmed your own stereotype....

Scorpio, where are you??
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
Udo
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sat Aug 27, 2005 9:45 pm

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 21):
And the answer you gave confirmed your own stereotype....

Only for those who actually link that stereotype to me.


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
leelaw
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sat Aug 27, 2005 10:51 pm

IMO, Art's hypothesis is certainly plausible...so far, Airbus is making it easy for Boeing to follow such a course given the seemingly prosaic pace of the A380's flight test and certification program.

IMO, this is all academic anyway because the composite hull juggernaut will soon take hold and both the 747 and A380 will be dinosaurs anyway.

[Edited 2005-08-27 15:58:49]
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
art
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:22 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 23):
...the composite hull juggernaut will soon take hold...

How soon is soon in your opinion? Assuming that only A or B could undertake such a development (and it would not seem to be to A's advantage to do this within 15 years), when might B embark on this?
 
Udo
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:22 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 23):
IMO, this is all academic anyway because the composite hull juggernaut will soon take hold and both the 747 and A380 will be dinosaurs anyway.

Tell that to the airlines who have A380s and B747s on order...


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:43 pm

Quoting Col (Reply 3):
They are outselling the 380 in this roll with the 744F, and even with the conversion market, sales are still good.

Why is it so hard for people to remember that the A380F and the B744F/AdvF will both serve their own markets? Not everyone needs a big nose for loading.

Cheers!

[Edited 2005-08-27 16:43:38]
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
Jet-lagged
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:32 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 23):
IMO, this is all academic anyway because the composite hull juggernaut will soon take hold and both the 747 and A380 will be dinosaurs anyway.

Some truth in that, but, that also depends on how much it cost and effort it takes to develop such a new craft. Yes composites would make a far more efficient VLA, but both makers have only so much money (OK, A's funding is pretty much a bottomless cookie jar, but still) and engineering talent available at any one time. Why would either of them develop something new, and gut the potential return on existing aircraft yet to secure their ROI (A380 and 747Adv)?

Still, care to make any educated statement as to how much improvement composites would create? I can start, that 5% weight reduction (just a guess, realy) which means for a theoretical 300 ton airplane with cargo (excluding fuel) that would be another 15 tons of payload. If US$1 per kg of cargo, that adds US$13,636 per flight, largely marginal income. I don't know if that kind of number is enough to make existing VLFreighter a dinosaur.
 
leelaw
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:55 am

Quoting Art (Reply 24):
How soon is soon in your opinion? Assuming that only A or B could undertake such a development (and it would not seem to be to A's advantage to do this within 15 years), when might B embark on this?

IMO, if Boeing is able to introduce the advanced technologies into the marketplace seemlessly it will be relatively rapid, 5-7 years. IMO, on the higher end of the spectrum, only an A389 size aircraft meets the capacity requirements of the business case given for the VLA if growth forecasts hub to hub are accurate. The rest of the market will be served by aircraft smaller than an A388 size aircraft, flying point to point.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sun Aug 28, 2005 1:23 am

The A380 line, as a class, has no competition. The proposed B747Adv, if developed, could only nip at the heels of its bigger competitor. The real question is whether or not there is a market for a line of much bigger aircraft. When we speak of a B747Adv as a 450-seat aircraft, it is important to remember that most international airlines operate existing B747-400's at about 350 seats. Therefore the Adv model will still fall short of 400 seats in actual use. In contrast the A380 will easily seat 500, or an increase of 25% over the B747Adv. With its massive wing, the A380 can easily support a much larger fuselage than any proposed B747 derivative, taking it into truly exclusive territory. Boeing is hoping to grab a part of the A380 market with its latest derivative, but to really compete there is no doubt they will need a new product line. However, the market may be slow to develop and therefore give Boeing time to consider its response.
 
Morvious
Posts: 637
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RE: Is B747 Line Playing Wait And See On A380?

Sun Aug 28, 2005 1:50 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 29):

Good post!!

The A380 has its own market.

For airliners that can't fill the A380 they will wait and see what the future gives them. Airliners that can easily fill the A380 on long haul routes will use it.

As for Boeing, it is not the company that likes to wait. Waiting to long can get you in trouble in this market. You don't want to see airliners buying other aircraft that you had on the drawing board.

But remember that they are in the middle of a giant project. Maybe they need to concentrate on this one before they start a new project.

They will come with the 747(NG/ADV) if they are ready for it, and the market needs it. Timing is everything.

Till then thye have to trust other cariers like BAW, JAL en CPA for example that they hold up for the moment.
have a good day, Stefan van Hierden

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