drinkstrolley
Posts: 484
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:50 pm

Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:48 pm

In a fit of boredom at LHR waiting for my BMI flight to DUB, I bought a book called "The Flying Book" by David Blatner (ISBN 0-140-29787-1) and in it there are some truly mad statistics.

i.) More people die in the US in six months in cars than in aeroplanes in the last 100 years!

ii.) If air travel were as safe as driving a car, a jet carrying 120 pax would crash without survivours every day of the year!

iii.) In 1998 in the US 2.5 million Americans died. 700,000 heart disease. 500,000 cancer. 50,000 medical screw ups in hostpitals and more than 20,000 in car crashes. But in the same year not a single fatality from a US based airline. Even in 1994 with a higher than average crash rate, 239 people died.

iiii.) In 1995 Americans took 505 million car trips of over 100 miles resulting in the death of 22,000 people. The same year U.S carriers flew 8.1 million flights and two crashes resulting in the death of 166. If the average car had 2 people and the average flight 150 there were 22 deaths per million car trips and only 0.14 deaths per million flights therefore making air travel 157 safer than driving (<---MAD!!!).  Wink

The highest risk is on short haul in devolping nations where the odds drop to 1 in 500,000. This equates to one day in 1300 years!!

Finally, using less "damp" statistics. The US Bureau Of Transportation Statistics calculate the the fatalities per million miles travelled are:- Car 9.3. Trains 5. and for commercial flights 1.22. Therefore, flying is eight times safer than driving and twice as safe as the train!

Good book and well worth eight quid!!!

Cheers!
 
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Starlionblue
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Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:58 pm

Nice stats. Thx.

Not surprising really. Commercial flying is done by highly trained professionals in some of the safest and most well maintained machines ever constructed. Much driving is done by barely literate individuals who:
- Never have to repeat a driving test, even after decades of driving.
- Can buy any old beater and neglect maintenance.
- Often don't wear their seatbelts.
- Assume things that other drivers (who are equally inadequate) will behave according to their own ideals.
- Never do a pre-driving check.
- Never check the tyre pressure.

The list goes on.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
BCAL
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RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:01 pm

Well as Mark Twain said:

Quote:
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics."

and the statistics would have meant nothing to those unfortunate souls who boarded the Helios 737 the Sunday before last.

On a more serious note, I shall keep a look out for the book.
MOL on SRB's latest attack at BA: "It's like a little Chihuahua barking at a dying Labrador. Nobody cares."
 
geoffm
Posts: 2082
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 5:58 am

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:08 pm

Quoting Drinkstrolley (Thread starter):
More people die in the US in six months in cars than in aeroplanes in the last 100 years!

Yes, and more than 200x more people travel by car every day than by plane!

Quoting Drinkstrolley (Thread starter):
Finally, using less "damp" statistics. The US Bureau Of Transportation Statistics calculate the the fatalities per million miles travelled are:- Car 9.3. Trains 5. and for commercial flights 1.22. Therefore, flying is eight times safer than driving and twice as safe as the train!

I was shown some UK statistics on a safety course. In terms of miles per passenger, planes were far safer than anything else. But in terms of TRIPS per passenger, TRAINS were just a little bit safer than planes. Makes you think. Statistics can be twisted to present the facts they want you to think.

But other than that... yeah.

Geoff M.
 
voyager747
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Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 4:22 am

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:12 pm

But then again take a look at what happened in Toronto.All those people survived.I think that the statistics in that case are correct.

My best wishes to the families of those who died on Helios 737.
 
ContnlEliteCMH
Posts: 1376
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 8:19 am

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:37 pm

Great statistics! When I leave my client each week, people always say, "Have a safe flight!" I always respond one of two ways:

Safe is a foregone conclusion; on-time is real problem.

and

It's not the flight I'm worried about; it's the drive to the airport.

It's gets even more amazing. I am far, far more likely to be killed by a simple accident in my own home (e.g. -- falling down the stairs) than I am on a commercial airliner. When I settle in to my seat on the airplane, I often think to myself, "You are virtually guaranteed to be alive two hours from now."

This safety is not just a testament to the pilots and ATC system (archaic as it is). To me, it's a statement first to the engineers that built the airplane, and then even moreso to the mechanics that maintain it. Safety starts long before the pilot ever advances the throttles for takeoff.

And it makes perfect sense that people die in cars at 8x the clip they do in airplanes. There's one very obvious fact of traffic that nobody can deny: cars travel on intersecting thoroughfares. Airplanes don't. OH, and cars can't vertically space themselves. Airplanes can. I don't have the stats in front of me, but the fatality rate on divided highways is much, much less than on all other types of roads. Take away the intersections, and you reduce the chances for you car to hit anything.
Christianity. Islam. Hinduism. Anthropogenic Global Warming. All are matters of faith!
 
BHXFAOTIPYYC
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RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:40 pm

I read somewhere that statistically speaking, 90% of all people are caused by accidents  Smile
Breakfast in BHX, lunch in FAO, dinner in TIP, baggage in YYC.
 
drinkstrolley
Posts: 484
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:50 pm

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:48 pm

Quoting Geoffm (Reply 3):
Statistics can be twisted to present the facts they want you to think.

Hence I threw in the phrase "Damp Statistics"!!

 Big grin
 
drinkstrolley
Posts: 484
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RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:50 pm

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 1):
- Never have to repeat a driving test, even after decades of driving.
- Can buy any old beater and neglect maintenance.
- Often don't wear their seatbelts.
- Assume things that other drivers (who are equally inadequate) will behave according to their own ideals.
- Never do a pre-driving check.
- Never check the tyre pressure.

Where do you know my wife from then?


 Wink
 
Timmytour
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 8:52 pm

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:07 am

I guess the chances of surviving a train or car crash must be considerably higher than surviving an aeroplane crash! (why doesn't spellcheck accept aeroplane!)

Also, as I think has already been pointed out, people undergo many more car journeys than plane journeys and relative safety measured on a per trip measure I imagine would be better in cars.

Something about the terrorism threat has to be added as well. Terrorists with a mindest to do so could probably kill more on an aggregate basis doing something on the roads, or even by driving cars onto railway crossings at crucial times. However, as this would not generate the kind of worldwide headlines they are after, aircraft seem to be their preferred target of transportation (though not exclusive as Madrid and London have proved)

Thus if it's terrorism you fear, then air travel might be something you would be more inclined to steer clear of.
 
GLA MD11
Posts: 264
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2000 12:16 pm

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:16 am

On Yahoo News France yesterday, they said that the chance of dying in a plane crash is 0.005 per million pax km (1 pax for 1 km). What's that supposed to mean?

"Statistics are like bikinis: they give a fairly good idea but hide what's really important".  Wink
 
757lgw
Posts: 137
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RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:29 am

What would be more interesting to know is what is the most common way to die onboard a plane? i wonder if your book has the details of fatailies after being sucked down the toilet? (i still dont understand peoples fear of that)
In all seriousness i would imagine that you are more likley to die on plane having a regular heart attack than during a crash?
 
LFutia
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RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:36 am

i agree with the statistics... in fact you are more likely to be killed going to/from the airport than on a plane.

Leo
Leo/ORD -- Groetjes uit de VS! -- Heeft u laatst nog met KLM gevlogen?
 
SlamClick
Posts: 9576
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 7:09 am

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:50 am

Quoting 757lgw (Reply 11):
In all seriousness i would imagine that you are more likley to die on plane having a regular heart attack than during a crash?

I've had two passengers die of natural causes over the years but I've never killed one in a crash.

So what are my stats?

When I used to fly light planes, down closer to the ground I'd often look down at a two-lane highway and see cars approaching from opposite directions. It struck me what a wild county-fair daredevil act that would make! Two people who don't even know each other, driving cars of unknown mechanical reliability are going to approach head-on at a closure speed of well over one hundred miles per hour and pass within a couple of feet of each other, separated only by a white line painted on the pavement! And the crowd goes wild!!!!
Happiness is not seeing another trite Ste. Maarten photo all week long.
 
DarthRandall
Posts: 294
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 8:17 am

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:03 am

Statistics or no, those are some interesting figures.

Quoting Geoffm (Reply 3):
I was shown some UK statistics on a safety course. In terms of miles per passenger, planes were far safer than anything else. But in terms of TRIPS per passenger, TRAINS were just a little bit safer than planes. Makes you think. Statistics can be twisted to present the facts they want you to think.

Even factoring AMTRAK into the equation? Dang. I guess that isn't too far-fetched for commuter rail.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 1):
Not surprising really. Commercial flying is done by highly trained professionals in some of the safest and most well maintained machines ever constructed. Much driving is done by barely literate individuals who:
- Never have to repeat a driving test, even after decades of driving.
- Can buy any old beater and neglect maintenance.
- Often don't wear their seatbelts.
- Assume things that other drivers (who are equally inadequate) will behave according to their own ideals.
- Never do a pre-driving check.
- Never check the tyre pressure.

Don't forget: are over sixty and have the reflexes of a three-toed sloth; treat stop signs more like guidelines than rules; drive vehicles so large that it is impossible for any other motorist driving a reasonable-sized vehicle to see around it; tries to drive while carrying on lengthy conversations on their cellphone; or, worst of all, are from Florida.

Or, in my particular case, drive with little or no regard to the speed limit.
Ninjas can kill anyone they want! Ninjas cut off heads all the time and don't even think twice about it.
 
AirWillie6475
Posts: 2372
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 1:45 pm

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:30 am

Statistics are only good for insurance companies. They mean nothing to the flying public. How come no body is woried of being killed in a car crash, there is certainly a higher chance of that for you. As long as the company takes care of the plane, the plane will take care of you.
 
yow
Posts: 2125
Joined: Sun Jun 03, 2001 2:47 pm

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:12 am

Quoting Voyager747 (Reply 4):
But then again take a look at what happened in Toronto.All those people survived.I think that the statistics in that case are correct.

Excellent point and welcome to a.net by the way. I saw an interesting documentary (I think on the Discovery Channel) once about how if you were to ride an airplane every single day of your life, you would have to wait, on average, 26,000 years to be in a plane crash, and even then odds are decent that you'd survive.
 
geoffm
Posts: 2082
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 5:58 am

RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Wed Aug 31, 2005 4:19 pm

Quoting DarthRandall (Reply 14):
Quoting Geoffm (Reply 3):
I was shown some UK statistics on a safety course. In terms of miles per passenger, planes were far safer than anything else. But in terms of TRIPS per passenger, TRAINS were just a little bit safer than planes. Makes you think. Statistics can be twisted to present the facts they want you to think.

Even factoring AMTRAK into the equation? Dang. I guess that isn't too far-fetched for commuter rail.

Um... Amtrak doesn't run in the UK (thankfully). Though to be fair, I don't think any of Amtrak's recent derailments or crashes have been due to their own equipment - more the host freight railroad's track condition, and due to road/rail collisions.

Geoff M.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: Statistics Of Being In A Plane Crash

Wed Aug 31, 2005 5:20 pm

Quoting DarthRandall (Reply 14):
or, worst of all, are from Florida.

To quote Seinfeld: "they sit low... they drive slow..."
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo

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