commavia
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DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 12:48 pm

AA apparently wants in on the JFK-SJD market. Up against DL's proposal of a Sat-only 738, AA is proposing a year-round Sat-only 757, plus a Wed-only 757 during the peak December-April period.

Since CO already flies EWR-SJD, and because JFK and EWR are coterminal in the context of the restrictive U.S.-Mexico bilateral, either AA or DL -- but not both -- will be flying this route.

Personally, I think AA stands a very good chance of winning this authority. AA is proposing more capacity, more frequency, a larger plane, a year-round service, and DL is in SkyTeam, along with CO, whereas AA would be injecting a competing nonstop alliance presence for oneworld in the market.
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 12:50 pm

Now the question is, how long until US Airways applies for nonstop Saturday-only LGA-SJD service, using either a 319 or a 757?
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
juventus
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 12:55 pm

I hope its DL. AA already runs the show at CUN, DL show get this one.
 
jetblueatjfk
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 12:55 pm

Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 1):
Now the question is, how long until US Airways applies for nonstop Saturday-only LGA-SJD service, using either a 319 or a 757?

Yup, lol.

I think if it is down to AA and DL, well AA will probably win because they are offering just more capacity. It sounds better so why go with a smaller plane just only Saturday service all year or bigger plane with sat. only service and a wed. flight during peak times, which sound better to you.

 airplane jetBlueAtJFK airplane 
 
A330323X
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 12:57 pm

Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 1):
Now the question is, how long until US Airways applies for nonstop Saturday-only LGA-SJD service, using either a 319 or a 757?

Seeing as how LGA-SJD would have a wee problem with customs/immigration, I wouldn't hold your breath.  Yeah sure
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 1:06 pm

Quoting A330323X (Reply 4):
Seeing as how LGA-SJD would have a wee problem with customs/immigration, I wouldn't hold your breath.

Good thinking...I forgot about that small problem...additionally, I know I left a smiley out of there, but if every other legacy carrier is going to fight tooth and nail on every single international award, hey, why not...that said, I wasn't serious...
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 7:00 pm

Had to be expected that AA just couldn't let DL get that route authority. Hope that DL gets this route, regardless of who offers more seats, as it isn't like DL or AA couldn't add more capacity as the market demands. But regardless of who gets the route authority, JB won't be getting it  devil .
 
DeltaMIA
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:26 pm

Quoting Commavia (Thread starter):
Personally, I think AA stands a very good chance of winning this authority. AA is proposing more capacity, more frequency, a larger plane, a year-round service, and DL is in SkyTeam, along with CO, whereas AA would be injecting a competing nonstop alliance presence for oneworld in the market.

I think it will go to DL. They have shown more of an aggressive approach at JFK over the last year and continue to do so. AA won't be able to run the route year round successfully and the DOT will know that as well. Its just an attempt to one up the competition. Again the additional frequency/capacity is meaningless. DL will be free to operate the route daily on a 777 if desired just as AA would be allowed to go to Saturday only on the 738. Again just trying to one up the competition by taking advantage of knowing what they proposed.
It's a big building with patients, but that's not important right now.
 
LUV4JFK
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:19 pm

I'm surprised they only applied for the one route. During the winter months, Continental flies from EWR to ACA & CZM and now year round to SJD & PVR, all routes Delta wants from JFK. I'm curious as to why American didn't want the other 3 routes as well.  confused 

LUV4JFK
 yes 
John F. Kennedy International Airport: Where America Greets The World.
 
commavia
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:47 pm

Quoting DeltaMIA (Reply 7):
They have shown more of an aggressive approach at JFK over the last year and continue to do so.

Since when has the DOT ever based an international route application on the perceived "aggressiveness" of one of the applicants? Who cares? AA is larger than DL at JFK, and has a much larger presence from JFK to Latin America.

Quoting DeltaMIA (Reply 7):
AA won't be able to run the route year round successfully and the DOT will know that as well.

Why not? AA does quite well in SJD during the summer, albeit not with as much capacity as in the winter. In addition, I think AA has a much better chance of making the route a profitable success, in the summer or winter, than DL ever will. AA is much bigger in New York than DL, much bigger at JFK than DL, and much bigger in Latin America and Mexico than DL.
 
padcrasher
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:04 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 9):
AA is much bigger in New York than DL, much bigger at JFK than DL, and much bigger in Latin America and Mexico than DL.

Per Port Authority statistics. AA/AE has a 16.8% NYC market share. Delta/Song/Comair have a 14.6% market share. This market share gap btw is narrowing each Month and has been for two years at least. So this 2.2 point gap qualifies in our AA koolaid drinker's mind as "much larger"...whoo whoo.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:11 am

Obviously the route will go to the airline who presents the best application, not size/commitment to the airport. Both DL and AA, as far as legacies go, have made JFK/NYC a focus for expanding. We shall see. AA is larger to Mexico and Latin American but that did not stop the feds from awarding AS the LAX-MEX authority.

This aside, do we know when the route will be assigned?
 
DeltaMIA
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:20 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 9):
Since when has the DOT ever based an international route application on the perceived "aggressiveness" of one of the applicants?

At least since F9 started to connect CUN to every US city.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 9):
AA is much bigger in New York than DL, much bigger at JFK than DL, and much bigger in Latin America and Mexico than DL.

Actually in NYC the airlines are dead even. In JFK AA is larger.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 9):
In addition, I think AA has a much better chance of making the route a profitable success

Why? I see no advantage to either carrier in terms of success. Each operate at relatively the same cost and each have the same market share in the region. Just because it is "AA" doesn't mean 20% more passengers over anyone else.
I think DL holds the advantage in this one because they submitted their application first. Just as I feel despite DL's large presence in MCO they won't get the CUN route authority. Time is money and AA is responding to competition not attempting to start up a new route.
It's a big building with patients, but that's not important right now.
 
DeltaMIA
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:22 am

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 10):
Delta/Song/Comair have a 14.6% market share

You forgot to add in DL Shuttle and CHQ. The 1.2-1.5 million passengers/month the Shuttle handles narrows the gap to even.
It's a big building with patients, but that's not important right now.
 
panamair
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:24 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 9):
AA is larger than DL at JFK



Quoting Commavia (Reply 9):
much bigger at JFK than DL

While I agree the size of a carrier in a particular market or airport has very little impact on the DOT's thought process, you'd better check your stats again about DL vs. AA at JFK. Depends on what you use to measure size at JFK, but DL beats AA on several fronts at JFK:

Number of airports/cities served nonstop:

AA (including Eagle): 38
DL (including Song, DCI): 57 (already excluding RSW but including AUS & SAT)

Number of daily flights:

AA (including Eagle): approx. 98
DL (including Song, DCI): over 110

The only metric AA probably beats DL at from JFK could be total number of seats offered as AA runs the 777s while a lot of DL's capacity is with the RJs.
 
commavia
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:25 am

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 10):
Per Port Authority statistics. AA/AE has a 16.8% NYC market share. Delta/Song/Comair have a 14.6% market share.

I was referring to mainline, as it won't be a Comair CRJ flying JFK-SJD (at least not yet!). By that metric -- AA is, indeed, much larger than DL at both JFK and in the New York metro area.

New York:
AA - 15.3%
DL - 7.8%

JFK:
AA - 20.5%
DL - 10.1%

AA mainline being more than twice as large as DL mainline in both cases, I'd say that's "much" larger.
 
padcrasher
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:26 am

I think I included it.

DL 7.8
Song 3.6
OH 1.9
Shuttle 1.3

??
 
padcrasher
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:27 am

Ah....mainline? Yes let's not include Song or the Shuttle...LOL

Like those don't play a factor in whatever your point was about AA having this size advantage..LOL
 
BigGSFO
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:39 am

"And in this corner, in the red, white and widget trunks, Padcrasher. And in the opposite corner in the red, white and silver trunks, Commavia."
 Smile

Does anybody know the criteria the feds review when determining these things? I realize it is probably different in every scenario, but what items in a proposal will the feds see as strengths vs. weaknesses? I guess this is the $64,000 question...
 
padcrasher
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 12:59 am

Primarily the big factors are: Does this provide service for an underserved market? Does it promote more competition?

If those question don't apply, like what you have here. Then it goes by more ambiguous reasons. Alliance considerations, helping an upstart airline, past denials, past approvals, and down right lobbying.
 
SESGDL
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 3:35 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 15):
I was referring to mainline, as it won't be a Comair CRJ flying JFK-SJD (at least not yet!). By that metric -- AA is, indeed, much larger than DL at both JFK and in the New York metro area.

Song is DL mainline by all means except under a different name, it's operated by mainline pilots and the 757 is a mainline plane. DL has upped capacity tremendously at JFK recently, and come winter will do so even more. Look for DL to overtake AA in NYC very soon, DL already carries more passengers at LGA, and will likely overtake AA in terms of passengers carried at JFK as well. CO is the largest airline in the New York area, AA is 2nd, with DL at a very close 3rd.

Jeremy
 
pdxtriple7
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 3:39 am

It is crazy how much SJD has grown over the years. I remember when I first started going there 5 years ago (my family has a timeshare in Cabo) there were very few east coast flights if any at all. Now there is F9, DL, AA, and CO to east of the Rockies. Any chance of widebody service to SJD? Isn't EWR/JFK-SJD a 6 hour flight?
 
MAH4546
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 3:45 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 20):
CO is the largest airline in the New York area, AA is 2nd, with DL at a very close 3rd.

True, though in terms of local traffic, American carries a lot more. Delta carriers a healthy amount of through traffic via JFK, much more so than AA, which carries little through traffic via the airport, most of it coming from Canada.
a.
 
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mariner
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 3:46 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 20):
Song is DL mainline by all means except under a different name, it's operated by mainline pilots and the 757 is a mainline plane.

Which would mean that Ted is United mainline? So why do they break out figures separately?

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
padcrasher
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 4:13 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
True, though in terms of local traffic, American carries a lot more. Delta carriers a healthy amount of through traffic via JFK, much more so than AA, which carries little through traffic via the airport, most of it coming from Canada.

Mark you sure about this?. Delta carriers more domestic passengers than AA in NYC. Very little of it connecting. Much of International now is to the Carribbean so that's not connecting either. I'd say if AA does have more local traffic it is because of their SJU/SDQ operations and it's not much more than Delta.
 
padcrasher
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 4:18 am

Yes I just don't see how AA has more local traffic. Only 1.9 points of Delta's 14.6 points is even International. And half that traffic is local as well. What gives?
 
MAH4546
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 4:31 am

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 24):

Mark you sure about this?. Delta carriers more domestic passengers than AA in NYC. Very little of it connecting. Much of International now is to the Carribbean so that's not connecting either. I'd say if AA does have more local traffic it is because of their SJU/SDQ operations and it's not much more than Delta.

I am sure that AAdvantage members are second to only CO OnePass in New York City, I should have been more clear with what I was saying, I perhaps read too much into that. Though AA does carry very little connecting traffic via JFK. Mostly of it is from their Eagle flights. After all, Halifax and (soon) Newcastle are the only JFK-excluvise destinations, so AA rarely sends connecting passengers through JFK.
a.
 
SESGDL
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 6:39 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 23):
Which would mean that Ted is United mainline? So why do they break out figures separately?

They're broken up separately to provide statistics, but when financial information, load factors, revenue passenger miles, etc., are published, Ted is part of UA mainline, and Song is part of DL mainline.

Jeremy
 
Evan767
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 8:44 am

Quoting JetBlueAtJFK (Reply 3):
I think if it is down to AA and DL, well AA will probably win because they are offering just more capacity. It sounds better so why go with a smaller plane just only Saturday service all year or bigger plane with sat. only service and a wed. flight during peak times, which sound better to you.

How does this make sense? AA will win because they offer "just more capacity". Sounds like AA will LOSE because they offer too much capacity and will be having their planes go out near half full. Whatever Mr. I hate Delta because they have a LCC (Song) competing with B6.
The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
 
AA787
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 9:35 am

Evan767-

Maybe he said that because it's what he truly feels will happen. I don't blame him. As mentioned before, the DOT is meant to promote competition. If 2 SkyTeam partners are the only ones allowed to service the route than that doesn't promote competition now does it? Secondly, more capacity is a plus when it comes to route authority because these authorities are important. The DOT doesn't want these coveted routes to be flown below their potential. If AA thinks JFK-SJD can handl 2 757s a week during high season...all power to them.

AA787
ET In NYC
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 9:38 am

One problem potentially hurting AA's chances will be the AS/AA codeshare that already funnels traffic SJD/LAX/JFK between both carriers. It represents a de-facto presence in the market for AA already, and that might sway the application towards DL.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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mariner
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 9:48 am

Quoting DeltaMIA (Reply 12):
At least since F9 started to connect CUN to every US city.

Funny, that's funny.  Smile

So I guess Delta learned from F9's book when they decided to connect SLC to every Mexican resort.

Quoting AA787 (Reply 29):
As mentioned before, the DOT is meant to promote competition.

Um - that's debatable. If that were true, the DOT would not assign, for example, a Mexican route authority to one airline and the second available authority to that same airline's express carrier.

That kills competition stone dead.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Evan767
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 10:07 am

Quoting AA787 (Reply 29):
Maybe he said that because it's what he truly feels will happen. I don't blame him.

Sure you don't...take a look at your screenname.
The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
 
MAH4546
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 10:08 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 30):
One problem potentially hurting AA's chances will be the AS/AA codeshare that already funnels traffic SJD/LAX/JFK between both carriers. It represents a de-facto presence in the market for AA already, and that might sway the application towards DL.

AA flies LAX-SJD daily with their own metal, no need for the AS application.

And that is not anything that will sway the application towards Delta. Delta can easily take people JFK-ATL-SJD and JFK-SLC-SJD on their own metal, or JFK-MEX-SJD with AM.
a.
 
commavia
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 10:12 am

Quoting AA787 (Reply 29):
If 2 SkyTeam partners are the only ones allowed to service the route than that doesn't promote competition now does it?

Exactly. If DL gets the route, SkyTeam will have the nonstop NYC-SJD market locked up, from the region's two longhaul airports. AA provides not only new (and in my opinion far more dynamic) competition for CO from EWR, but also ensures that one alliance (along with FFP/lounge sharing) doesn't dominate the market.

Quoting AA787 (Reply 29):
Secondly, more capacity is a plus when it comes to route authority because these authorities are important.

The DOT has in the past awarded limited authority rights to competing applicant carriers based on proposed capacity.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 30):
One problem potentially hurting AA's chances will be the AS/AA codeshare that already funnels traffic SJD/LAX/JFK between both carriers.

As said, DL can funnel people just as easily over ATL or SLC, on its own metal, or via partners, just as AA could over DFW or through LAX with AS.
 
DeltaMIA
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RE: DL Has Competition: AA Applies For JFK-SJD

Fri Sep 02, 2005 11:07 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 31):
So I guess Delta learned from F9's book when they decided to connect SLC to every Mexican resort.

Why not connect your hub to Mexican outstations? Makes sense to me. It isn't like there are many airlines fighting DL over that lucrative SLC-Mexico market. DL is serving the resorts from where it benefits more of their customers.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 34):
The DOT has in the past awarded limited authority rights to competing applicant carriers based on proposed capacity.

Do you have a proof of this? or are you basing your assumption on competing applicants proposals? I can't believe the DOT would grant a route over airlines who operate a nearly identical fleet just because airline A said they would fly with one plane on their proposal and then airline B proposes they will offer it with 30 more seats.
It's a big building with patients, but that's not important right now.

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