luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sat Sep 03, 2005 3:55 am

You can cut the irony with a knife
 
OttoPylit
Posts: 2259
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:58 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sat Sep 03, 2005 8:57 am

What in that article made it so interesting to where it hasn't already been discussed?

[Edited 2005-09-03 01:58:49]
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.
 
OPNLguy
Posts: 11191
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 1999 11:29 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:10 am

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 1):
What in that article made it so interesting to where it hasn't already been discussed?

Maybe because of the article's prediction that Katrina-induced fuel cost increaes and disrupted operations will increase the liklihood or hasten the timing of a filing?
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
KarlB737
Posts: 2630
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:13 am

Courtesy: Atlanta Business Chronicle

Delta Stock Dips Below 1 Dollar

http://www.bizjournals.com/industrie...ts/2005/08/29/atlanta_daily39.html
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:19 am

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 1):
What in that article made it so interesting to where it hasn't already been discussed?

Because now it is not being whispered behind closed doors, and now being said out loud and in front of people.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:20 am

The proverbial fat women is getting ready to sing her heart out.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
commavia
Posts: 9622
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:21 am

Sadly, I agree with the general spirit of the article -- Katrina, and the subsequent spike in fuel prices, will probably end up being the straw that broke the airline's back in the case of DL, forcing the airline into bankruptcy within weeks, IMO. In addition, I think that it very well might mean the end for several airlines already on the brink, like TZ. I could be wrong, and I hope fo the sake of said airlines' employees that I am, but only time will tell.
 
OttoPylit
Posts: 2259
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:58 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sun Sep 04, 2005 1:15 am

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 4):
Because now it is not being whispered behind closed doors, and now being said out loud and in front of people.

What was being said behind closed doors that hasn't been said out loud? Analysts have been predicting a possible filing, fuel prices have been going up, hurricane caused tremendous problems in everyone's flight schedules, and Delta has been on the brink for a while now.

What you are saying was "whispered behind closed doors" has been public for quite a while now, so your behind the power curve or out of the loop. And even if it wasn't out in the open, anyone could figure it out, its not rocket surgery.  Yeah sure


OttoPylit
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.
 
richierich
Posts: 3282
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sun Sep 04, 2005 2:20 am

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 7):
And even if it wasn't out in the open, anyone could figure it out, its not rocket surgery.

Sort of like Song's financial performance??!
None shall pass!!!!
 
OttoPylit
Posts: 2259
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:58 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sun Sep 04, 2005 4:57 am

Quoting Richierich (Reply 8):
Sort of like Song's financial performance??!

Haha, you think Delta would let out Song's financial performance so the other LCC's would pick it to pieces? I don't think so. Watch out Richie, you are speaking on terms of which you do not know...again.

You've been caught with your pants down once, don't let it happen again(or should we start once more the "Song's Death Countdown"). LOL


OttoPylit
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 3927
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sun Sep 04, 2005 5:18 am

I have posted this many times, and I'll direct this time to OttoPylit:

This is a forum! Plain and simple. People come to a forum to discuss things. And yes, as a topic evolves, people discuss things MORE THAN ONCE. (I can't believe I just said that!)

Who would ever expect a possible bankruptcy filing by a respected, major airline to be discussed more than ONE time in ONE thread on an AVIATION forum?

Who would ever expect a NEW THREAD to be started on the possible effect of a major natural disaster that killed thousands of people, devestated a major U.S. city, and drove up Jet Fuel to record levels to be posted on an AVIATION forum?

You, Otto, are absolutely right! None of our members should EVER, EVER, EVER, think of posting another DL possible bankruptcy filing thread EVER AGAIN . . . EVEN, yes EVEN if a major event occurs which could hasten or ebb that process.

Just my two cents!  Smile

PJ
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sun Sep 04, 2005 5:38 am

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 9):
Haha, you think Delta would let out Song's financial performance so the other LCC's would pick it to pieces? I don't think so.

You could also say the same for not releasing it, as it is not delivering like they are always saying. Truth is we have no way of knowing one way or another. Plus or minus, real or fake, truth or lie.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
OttoPylit
Posts: 2259
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:58 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:02 am

Quoting JFKLGANYC (Reply 10):

I'm picking up your sarcasm there, which is good, since your laying it on pretty thick.

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 11):
You could also say the same for not releasing it, as it is not delivering like they are always saying. Truth is we have no way of knowing one way or another.

Let's dissect this a little. You state "it is not delivering as they are always saying and we have no way of knowing." And you know this how? Do you work for Delta? Are you a Delta analyst in Rev Mgmt? Do you have friends who are? Unless you do, YOU are right when you say you have no idea. However, I do work for Delta, I do have friends in those places(and on this very forum) and I do see the numbers on a regular basis. And I do know if it is making money or not. I could very easily give you the CASM on it, not that I will. I know the the break even LF is and could give it you, not that I will. I know whether Song is making money. Being that is started out well and has done nothing but expand, I'll just say entertain you and say that it loses millions a day and will shut down within a week. That should keep you quelled for a while.

By the way, when did this turn into a Song thread? Weren't we talking about the "already run into the ground" thread of Delta filing for bankruptcy that you love so much?

I'm bored, off to find something to spend better time on. I think my shoes need to be relaced..........
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.
 
N77014
Posts: 812
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2004 7:16 pm

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:18 am

I tend to agree with the article. MSY was a major market for DL, and the jump in fuel does not help either.
A new life awaits you in the Off-World Colonies...
 
DeltaMIA
Posts: 1622
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2004 11:53 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sun Sep 04, 2005 2:28 pm

They will file. It is painfully obvious. The question comes down to when. Personally I don't think we should discuss it on this forum until that day comes. It seems to make a lot more sense than have a daily discussion on which newspaper editor thinks DL is on the brink. Most of us are smart of enough on this forum to not need to post or read the daily newspaper article as proof DL's financial situation isn't strong and Bankruptcy is imminent.
It's a big building with patients, but that's not important right now.
 
N839MH
Posts: 298
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2001 4:05 pm

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Sun Sep 04, 2005 2:53 pm

Well, talking to some crew members along with a good friend from
Headquaters on the DFW-HNL flight....oh how nice it is to have the
DFW to HNL non-stop flights back...and two of them a day at that....
anyhow...sounds like Delta will file Bankruptcy sometime this coming week.

Oh well...what can anyone do about it....there are definitely worse things
in life than if Delta files Bankruptcy!!!
Solodude!
 
srbmod
Posts: 15446
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 1:32 pm

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:12 am

Some folks are saying that they'll wait until after the sale of EV to OO is done to file, which should be sometime in the next few weeks. I guess they can't find someone to take OH off of their hand yet. The aftermath of Katrina and the fuel issues are just another bump in the rocky road to Chapter 11 for Delta.

As for Song, since it is considered part of DL Mainline for financial and regulatory reasons, the financials on it don't get reported separately (DL Connection's financials aren't reported separately either. The first full quarter that EV is under the OO corporate umbrella could potentially give us a look into how important EV and OH have been to DL's bottom line). A lot of us here thought that when Grinstein became CEO that Song was going to be history ASAP. I think Song will be history as part of the CH. 11 reorganization, but some of the things learned through it that haven't already made it into the mainline product will be rolled out through much of the mainline product.
 
bucky707
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 2:01 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:51 pm

I have heard the only hold up on filing at this point is waiting for the sale of ASA to be complete. CMR will not be sold, will be chopped up in BK, as will the whole CVG hub.
 
Guest

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:56 pm

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 17):
CMR will not be sold, will be chopped up in BK, as will the whole CVG hub.

Um, no.

B
 
DAL767400ER
Posts: 5084
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:47 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:35 pm

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 17):
CMR will not be sold, will be chopped up in BK, as will the whole CVG hub.

If you actually believe what you just wrote, I have a bridge in Hamburg to sell to you.
 
bucky707
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 2:01 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:49 pm

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 19):
If you actually believe what you just wrote, I have a bridge in Hamburg to sell to you.

Ok, lets talk again in a year and see. I think you will find I am right on track.

If Delta were to stay an independent carrier, CVG would survive. However, Delta cannot and will not stay independent. We will merge with someone. CVG will be eliminated in pretty much any merger scenario. Along with that, the need for CMR is pretty much gone.

[Edited 2005-09-05 16:52:07]
 
DAL767400ER
Posts: 5084
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:47 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:05 am

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 20):
Ok, lets talk again in a year and see.

I'll mark it in my calendar  Wink .

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 20):
I think you will find I am right on track.

Remains to be seen.

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 20):
However, Delta cannot and will not stay independent. We will merge with someone.

That also still remains to be seen. While I do not doubt that DL will be involved in a merger/takeover within the next ten years, I doubt it will happen within the next 12 months.
 
bucky707
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 2:01 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:27 am

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 21):
While I do not doubt that DL will be involved in a merger/takeover within the next ten years, I doubt it will happen within the next 12 months.

next twelve months, maybe not. But they will have to start setting up for a merger in the next twelve months. Once a merger is announced, too late to start closing a hub or downsizing. Things will start to move fast once we are in BK.
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 1874
Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 1:15 am

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 20):
CVG will be eliminated in pretty much any merger scenario

there are a handful of cities with service only through the CVG hub. Would they keep DL flights and route them through ATL? Are the recent announcements of moving CVG service from LAN and MLI to ATL a sign of things to come? Its hard to think of a hub with 600 flights being shuttered with nothing nearby to take the capacity. At least when AA downsized STL they still had ORD close by to absorb some of those flights that were cut at STL.
 
panamair
Posts: 3759
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 1:28 am

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 20):
CVG will be eliminated in pretty much any merger scenario

Maybe except in a DL-CO scenario as CVG could replace CLE given that CLE is the smallest of CO's hubs.
 
bucky707
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 2:01 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:40 am

Quoting Panamair (Reply 24):
Maybe except in a DL-CO scenario as CVG could replace CLE given that CLE is the smallest of CO's hubs.

I asked that question and was told a DL-CO merger would probably keep CLE instead of CVG. Evidently, Cleveland has a lot more O+D traffic than CVG, which is pretty much all connecting traffic.

anyway, any other merger will definately can CVG. DL-NW, Close CVG in favor of DTW and probably close MEM in favor of ATL. DL-UAL, CVG gone in favor of ORD.
 
OttoPylit
Posts: 2259
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:58 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:25 am

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 20):
Ok, lets talk again in a year and see. I think you will find I am right on track.

If Delta were to stay an independent carrier, CVG would survive. However, Delta cannot and will not stay independent. We will merge with someone. CVG will be eliminated in pretty much any merger scenario. Along with that, the need for CMR is pretty much gone.

At one time, I used to believe what you said. But now, within 3 posts, I have come to doubt it ever again. A quick couple of questions.

1. CVG-Why give up such a profitable and fortress hub? Its one thing for it to be CMH for HP or CLE for CO, but CVG is much bigger and busier than either of those were for other carriers. We might as well shut down SLC and NYC while we're at it. CVG is the one place where DL still controls everything without the hustle and bustle of other hubs. Wouldn't be wise to shut it down.

2. Comair-I'm guessing this is only pure hope provided by DALPA. But Comair has a place within the Delta system, and you can't just chop up a carrier like that, especially when the carrier is profitable. You can sell it, but you can't just chop it up and close up shop. If you tried that, despite whether they are owned or not, you would hae CALPA, CMR IAM, and even the RJ Defense Coalition shitting bricks and doing what was needed to stop it.

3. Merger-Oh come on, we're not THAT bad off. Hell, it if was that easy, UA would now be called Continental and American would be called Southwest. LOL Mergers are bound to happen in this industry, and some probably sooner than others. But I doubt you would see Delta merging with anyone while in BK. Otherwise, why wouldn't UA have merged with anyone? They are just as large and if I'm not mistaken, has about the same debt rating, and a very nice Asian network, not to mention excellent hub positioning.

But please, entertain us and provide us with your resources. I'm sure they are just rumor and speculation, but I want to know who NOT to get information from in the future. And put down the Kool-Aid, thanks.


OttoPylit
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 1874
Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:59 am

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 25):
I asked that question and was told a DL-CO merger would probably keep CLE instead of CVG. Evidently, Cleveland has a lot more O+D traffic than CVG, which is pretty much all connecting traffic.

Does CLE really have the capacity and room to take on a 600 flight per day hub? If O & D was so good there, why is the CO hub there so small? It would be hard to imagine DL abandoing the investment that have put into CVG with those nice terminals and also CVG will be adding a 3rd runway. Not to mention CLE weather can be awful in the wintertime with lake effect snowstorms while CVG is less prone to winter weather delays since they are a bit farther south.....
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5258
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:08 am

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 26):
CVG-Why give up such a profitable and fortress hub?

I hear this about practically every part of the DL system from DL employees. I've heard that Atlanta is profitable, International is profitable, Song is profitable, Comair is profitable, CVG is profitable, the Shuttle is profitable, etc. If all these things are profitable, then where is DL losing all this money???? The numbers just don't add up.

CVG may be a fortress, but most of CVG's traffic doesn't come from the fortress. It's connecting traffic which has lower yields.

Plus, if CVG was doing so great, why isn't it growing like the rest of DL's system? ATL, SLC, MCO and JFK are gaining (or have gained) lots of new routes/flights, but CVG has stagnated. Even in the restructuring last winter, CVG gained very little compared to the rest of the DL system.



Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 26):
But Comair has a place within the Delta system, and you can't just chop up a carrier like that, especially when the carrier is profitable. You can sell it, but you can't just chop it up and close up shop.

In BK, you most certainly could chop up Comair. Grinstein has already said in meetings with the pilots that in BK, he would dump a significant number of RJ's. Comair has an extremely high CASM and DL is carrying a lot of debt because of Comair. The RJ economics are a disaster with fuel prices this high. If regionals like Comair were so profitable, DL wouldn't have sold ASA at a LOSS.

If DL does file, I expect Comair will be cut down. I don't think Comair will go away completely, but it will be a much smaller airline. That is the grim reality of BK (assuming DL files).

I honestly don't see DL merging anytime soon. There's really no good partners for DL. DL will have to survive on its own or be liquidated.
 
stirling
Posts: 3897
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 2:00 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:03 am

Could Comair survive as a stand alone carrier?
Delete this User
 
CincyBaseFA
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu May 13, 2004 12:45 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 2:21 pm

I want to see comair as a stand alone carrier. I've only been with the company for 2 1/2 years and I don't want to lose my job. but I haven't heard much talk of that rumor anymore around other crew members... I wish I had some sort of knowing what there plan was with us.
 
Squid
Posts: 192
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2005 4:21 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 2:55 pm

I doubt Comair could make it on their own, Flyi should be a powerful lesson. I think DL would make a good merge with Continental. And I don't think CVG should be completely closed either, maybe just radically scaled back. CVG and CLE could both remain open if they were scaled back and timed to complement each other not compete with each other. If DL does go it alone, I think they will emerge a much smaller airline and I doubt SLC will be a part of the operation. Also through the bankruptcy process, one of the biggest concessions that management could get would be allowing Comair to fly unlimited numbers of ERJ-190's that seat 100 passengers, and then ground many of the Super-80's. The Super-80's are not going to be economical for much longer if fuel prices continue to rise.

[Edited 2005-09-06 07:57:46]
 
DeltaA380
Posts: 84
Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 3:18 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:09 pm

In my opinion, I think closing CVG, regrettably, as I think it's our nicest hub by far, would be a possibility. Incidentally, next time you are in CVG make sure you stop by the Wolfgang Puck restaurant in B Concourse and try the smoked salmon pizza, it is the best airport food I have ever had.

Also, now that they got ASA, why couldn't SkyWest pick up Comair at a later date? Or how about some part of the Mesa group getting Comair? Either of these would give some assurance of the product continuity Delta is looking for as the EV/OO combination did.

Lastly, how big of an operation is CLE for CO? I can only remember it as the hub I always forget about.
Vote Democratic in '06 and '08
 
bucky707
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 2:01 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:56 pm

Quoting Squid (Reply 31):
Also through the bankruptcy process, one of the biggest concessions that management could get would be allowing Comair to fly unlimited numbers of ERJ-190's that seat 100 passengers, and then ground many of the Super-80's.

Two thoughts. First, in bankruptcy Delta can get its own pilots to fly an E-190 for pretty much whatever pay they want, so why fly them at CMR? Second, if management tries to chance scope that much, they will have a battle on their hands with the pilots, and they know it. They will seek unlimited 70 seaters, but will not go above that. Every pilot I know would strike over scope, even knowing it would mean the end of Delta.
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5258
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:04 pm

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 33):
First, in bankruptcy Delta can get its own pilots to fly an E-190 for pretty much whatever pay they want, so why fly them at CMR?

Because regional pilots are likely to fly the planes cheaper in the long run. Sure the DL mainline guys might fly them cheaply for a few years, then the moment DL starts making money, DL pilots would want massive raises. This is exactly what happened with the Delta Express 732's back in the 90's.

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 33):
Every pilot I know would strike over scope, even knowing it would mean the end of Delta.

I doubt it. You really think a bunch of guys making six figures flying the 738, 757, 767, etc are going to throw their careers away over a 90 seat plane. We hear lots of pilots thump their chests about going on strike, but the pilots have too much to lose to let a strike happen.
 
bucky707
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 2:01 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:15 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 34):
then the moment DL starts making money, DL pilots would want massive raises

You think the CMR pilots would not want massive raises?

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 34):
You really think a bunch of guys making six figures flying the 738, 757, 767, etc are going to throw their careers away over a 90 seat plane.

Yes, I do. Think about it. Going to 100 seaters at CMR and getting rid of the 88s and smaller at Delta eliminates 1/3 of the captain seats and also means that the future captain seats of every co pilot in the airline are gone. Would the senior guys, who are already in the captain seat of a 767 balk, sure. But that still leaves about 2/3 of the pilot list who would be affected. Same thing as with the NW mechanics. Is it worth striking over a huge pay cut, even if its another 20-30%, no. But when you start talking about getting rid of the bulk of our jobs, then yes its worth striking and we would.
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5258
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 12:10 am

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 35):
You think the CMR pilots would not want massive raises?

Compared to the DL pilots, no. Also factor in other costs (benefits, work rules,etc) and the DL mainline guys are going to cost more in the long run.

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 35):
Going to 100 seaters at CMR and getting rid of the 88s and smaller at Delta eliminates 1/3 of the captain seats and also means that the future captain seats of every co pilot in the airline are gone.

I don't think the E190 will replace the MD88....the two aren't remotely similar in size. I believe the MD88 will be replaced either by more 737's or whatever 737 replacement that Boeing comes up with.

The E190 at DL would serve two major purposes:
1) Replace the 732/733 and fill the gap betweent the 70 seater and the MD88/737.
2) Upgrade RJ routes currently flown with 50/70 seaters.

Given those uses, I don't think the DL pilots would strike over it. They won't like it, but they aren't going to strike over it.

Of course, I tend to believe any 90 seater would be operated by a contract carrier (not a wholly owned). DL can't finance the planes and doesn't want the additional debt. So as long as CMR is wholly-owned, they'll probably never see any 90 seaters.
 
DeltaMIA
Posts: 1622
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2004 11:53 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 12:49 am

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
I hear this about practically every part of the DL system from DL employees. I've heard that Atlanta is profitable, International is profitable, Song is profitable, Comair is profitable, CVG is profitable, the Shuttle is profitable, etc. If all these things are profitable, then where is DL losing all this money???? The numbers just don't add up.

ATL and CVG are not profitable as a whole; parts though are extremely profitable. ATL for the first time within the last two years has dropped to red ink. It used to be a cash cow for DL and for many years was the only profitable part of DL (in 1999 was profitable to the tune of $1.5 billion when the other hubs lost about half a billion). Presently the cost of fuel with the amount of flights has brought ATL down.
Trans-Atlantic flights, Latin American/Caribbean flights, most Florida markets and Song are all profitable.
The Shuttle right now is not profitable, but is improving every quarter. Taking away the high maintenance 73G's could bring the operating costs down enough to bring it back to profitability.
Comair I don't know specifically. ASA was profitable, however OH has higher costs. OH does take advantage of more incentives that airports offer so DL can bring their higher labor costs down. Personally I think they just bring even or may even operate at a loss with the cost of fuel.
COST OF FUEL is where the money is being lost and only reason DL isn't operating profitably in the industry. Obviously there is no sign of this cost dropping so it is matter of time before the airline files for bankruptcy protection as there is no more cash to bleed and no more face to safe.
It's a big building with patients, but that's not important right now.
 
bucky707
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 2:01 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 4:58 am

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 36):
Compared to the DL pilots, no. Also factor in other costs (benefits, work rules,etc) and the DL mainline guys are going to cost more in the long run.

what can I say, you're wrong. Our contract as it stands today is not much more costly than CMRs. Add in another round of cuts and loosing the pension (which will happen) and our contract will not be a whole lot different from a regional contract. It will be a long, long time before the Delta pilots (or the pilots at any major) are in a position to go after big raises. Either way, I disagree with you. All the Delta pilots realize what's at stake by outsourcing a 100 seat jet. Look at UAL, they did not cave on that even in BK. The USAir pilots caved on what, 20 E-190s. And now that the AWA pilots are in the mix, that is no sure thing. Won't happen at Delta. More 70 seaters, yes, thats given. But I do not see the the Delta pilots allowing something bigger than 70 seats, especially at a time when our wages are so low it will be hard to make an economic argument for outsourcing them.
 
OttoPylit
Posts: 2259
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:58 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 8:48 am

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
If all these things are profitable, then where is DL losing all this money???? The numbers just don't add up

First of all, take a look at DeltaMIA's post. The one thing killing Delta right now is fuel, plain and simple. Seat costs are down to some of the lowest in the industry, but as long as fuel stays high and with no hedging, that is where Delta is stranded. Its like being stuck on a sandbar surrounded by sharks. The more the tide rises, the less chance you have of getting off.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
It's connecting traffic which has lower yields.

Yes, but it also serves as a good airport for those in close secondary stations. LEX, SDF, DAY, CAK, CLE, are all fairly close in proximity and it gives DL a good chance of capturing that traffic if they decided not to fly out of their home cities. Simply a matter of market share. Granted, market share can't guarantee profitability, but its good to know where your customer's are.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
ATL, SLC, MCO and JFK are gaining (or have gained) lots of new routes/flights, but CVG has stagnated. Even in the restructuring last winter, CVG gained very little compared to the rest of the DL system.

Just because it isn't growing now doesn't mean anything. A few years ago, SLC was cut back pretty bad, down to the bone. Everyone was wondering what was gonna happen to SLC. Since Grinstein has come up, he knows the importance of SLC that Mullin didn't and is stepping up ops there. CVG isn't getting much, I feel, because of the shakeup with Comair and the weather last winter. Kinda like a punishment. But more importantly, there is little competition from and around CVG, so you can focus your equipment and routes to make money in other places, like ATL, JFK, and SLC.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
Grinstein has already said in meetings with the pilots that in BK, he would dump a significant number of RJ's.

Yea, he did that by selling ASA.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
If regionals like Comair were so profitable, DL wouldn't have sold ASA at a LOSS.

Because ASA was a shitbag operation. There are good folks there, but DL bought ASA to clean it up. Here were were in 2005 and it still wasn't cleaned up. Since it wasn't doing any good to keep it, why not just sell it. Yea, you sell it at a loss, but end up better in the long run, no more insurance, payscales, contracts, etc.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
I don't think Comair will go away completely, but it will be a much smaller airline.

Exactly what I was saying. You can't just shut it down completely, especially if it IS profitable(which I don't even know to be honest). You would have to have a good reason to do so, but couldn't do it unless you tried to sell it first. By chopping it, you would be paying out so much in lost wages, unemployment, etc, you would be worse off.


OttoPylit
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13173
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:25 am

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 27):
If O & D was so good there, why is the CO hub there so small?

Because CLE is CO's third largest hub while CVG is DL's Second largest hub, after ATL DL's best hub is CVG. After IAH CO's best hub is EWR, big difference between EWR and CVG.

DL's SLC hub would be their third hub, and CLE would be CO's third hub.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
Lono
Posts: 1136
Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2004 5:47 pm

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:33 am

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 39):
First of all, take a look at DeltaMIA's post. The one thing killing Delta right now is fuel, plain and simple. Seat costs are down to some of the lowest in the industry, but as long as fuel stays high and with no hedging, that is where Delta is stranded. Its like being stuck on a sandbar surrounded by sharks. The more the tide rises, the less chance you have of getting off.

This is true.... Along with a outdated business plan... I understand you are a DL employee..... As such what do you think the fix is...???? I used to work for DL and I have many friends still there who are saying the final outcome of this will be very bad indeed... What do you think the final outcome of DL's current environmental challenges are...???
Wally Bird Ruled the Skys!
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Crew
Posts: 11728
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:50 am

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 5):
The proverbial fat women is getting ready to sing her heart out.

I think she's on stage about ready to fling the arms wide for the finale'. DL is amazing in their loss rates.

Quoting DeltaMIA (Reply 14):
They will file. It is painfully obvious. The question comes down to when

Well said.

Quoting Stirling (Reply 29):
Could Comair survive as a stand alone carrier?



Quoting Squid (Reply 31):
Flyi should be a powerful lesson.

Asked and answered. 50 seaters just do not have the CASM to carry people profitably in today's market except between certain city pairs. I happen to agree with the Boyd group on this one, lots of RJ's are going to the desert/Beer cans. (I disagree with their predictions on which airports will grow, but that's part of the fun.) Oh, there is room for ~1000 50 seat RJ's in the world, but not for the numbers in service today.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
I hear this about practically every part of the DL system from DL employees. I've heard that Atlanta is profitable, International is profitable, Song is profitable, Comair is profitable, CVG is profitable, the Shuttle is profitable, etc. If all these things are profitable, then where is DL losing all this money????

DFW?  duck 

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 28):
Grinstein has already said in meetings with the pilots that in BK, he would dump a significant number of RJ's.

I think a *huge* number are headed that way. ASA just bought themselves a seat at the final table (due to the "clawbacks" if DL tries to cut them out in BK). Ouch, this will hurt Bombardier. In BK, DL would definitely up the allowed E70's/90's, and CR7/9's flown by regionals.

Quoting DeltaA380 (Reply 32):
I think closing CVG, regrettably, as I think it's our nicest hub by far, would be a possibility.

I have to agree that closing CVG is a possibility. Any hub with < 50% O&D is just not going to be very profitable as the LCC's, with their > 70% O&D cities connect more and more of the USA. St. Louis is gone as a hub for a reason.

I wish this wasn't DL problem. I really like the airline. But their caught with poor aircraft utilization (vs. FL or B6, who they compete with) and the wrong aircraft mix.

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
DeltaMIA
Posts: 1622
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2004 11:53 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:50 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 40):
Because CLE is CO's third largest hub while CVG is DL's Second largest hub, after ATL DL's best hub is CVG. After IAH CO's best hub is EWR, big difference between EWR and CVG.

That's a senseless comparison.
CLE and CVG are essentially the same type of hub. It doesn't matter if CO happens to be larger at EWR and IAH. CLE and CVG are serving the same customer and are being used the same. That is the point being made and CVG is much stronger than CLE is. Hubs aren't dependent upon O&D traffic. It helps, but the CVG hub isn't scheduled around CVG locals.
DL's SLC hub is twice the size of CO's CLE and DL's CVG hub is 33% larger than EWR (in terms of daily departures) or three times larger than CLE.
Beyond CLE CO has no other substantial operation. I believe BOS is there next largest market with 44 daily departures. DL meanwhile has over 100 daily flights at MCO, LGA, JFK, and BOS and over 50 daily departures at a handful of other cities including DCA, TPA, FLL, and LAX.
It's a big building with patients, but that's not important right now.
 
Squid
Posts: 192
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2005 4:21 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:26 pm

Here is the deal at Delta in my opinion. Many things are working against them tremendously, and it's not just fuel. Delta has a terrible fleet mix and desperately needs to make updates. So in my opinion, NWA being a perfect example by suggesting "NEWCO", the ERJ-170, 175, 190, & 195, are going to be considered as future replacement aircraft for many aging 737's, DC-9's and Super-80's at many airlines soon. These aircraft really are perfect for the smaller hubs like CVG, CLE, SLC, MEM where airline are, and have for some time, been having trouble making these hubs work because of lower O&D traffic and lower yields. Additionally, these aircraft are going to explode the point to point market, and who ever is caught without this aircraft in their fleet, is going to be the looser.

It may be hard for mainline employees to accept the drastic changes this aircraft is going to bring to the domestic market, but Delta doesn't need a slight tweaking of the business plan, it needs major overhaul. NWA does as well. Grounding over a third of the main line fleet and replacing it with a 100 seat regional aircraft that offer a mainline aircraft experience and can fly 2000 miles is really the only option, other then more pay concessions, the major airlines are going to have to fend off the LCC's. The LCC's like JetBlue are gearing up to do this type of expansion as we sit here today. These aircraft are called regional aircraft and should therefore be flown by regional crews. And even if the mainline crews agree to regional wages on it, they will still demand better work rules and over time will also demand pay raises that will out pace regional airline pay, thus negating the cost saving advantages of this aircraft. Additionally, why would you separate the 170's and the 190's? The flight deck is identical, and having the 170's flown by regional and the 190's by mainline is just plain dumb.

So really, this is how Delta can save themselves. Allow Comair or Skywest to fly unlimited numbers of the ERJ-170/175/190/195, configured up to 100 seats, but then set up a flow through agreement with the pilots and flight attendants so being removed from the mainline isn't as painful and they will have something to look forward to. Also, Comair, and Skywest need to park about half of their CRJ's and replace a large portion of them with the new Dash-8's, especially the Q400, because these new Dash-8's are much more economical to fly on shorter stage segments as well as quiet and comfortable. SLC and CVG need to be "right sized, which will help by the fleet changes from the ERJ's and Dash-8's, but I also think there needs to be additional cuts made. Delta needs to position the ERJ's into point to point flights into Florida to take back its market share. And finally, the experience of flying song needs to be integrated into Delta, and Delta Connection flights longer than two hours, although slightly toned down into a more professional experience but still hip with a bit of color.
 
bucky707
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 2:01 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:11 pm

Quoting Squid (Reply 44):
The LCC's like JetBlue are gearing up to do this type of expansion as we sit here today. These aircraft are called regional aircraft and should therefore be flown by regional crews

interesting how you think an E-190 is a regional aircraft and should be flown by regional crews, yet JetBlue is not flying these with regional crews. Jetblue E-190s will be flown by JetBlue pilots, JetBlue FAs and worked on by JetBlue mechanics. Why is it you people think outsourcing is the silver bullet that will save the airlines? The three best and most profitable airlines in this country right now are Southwest, JetBlue and Airtran. Isn't it interesting that not one of them outsources any flying. And Southwest pays its employees the best wages in the industry. You can outsource all you want. Bottom line is with piss poor management, you still will not make a profit.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13173
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:21 pm

Quoting DeltaMIA (Reply 43):
CLE and CVG are essentially the same type of hub. It doesn't matter if CO happens to be larger at EWR and IAH. CLE and CVG are serving the same customer and are being used the same. That is the point being made and CVG is much stronger than CLE is.

They are not the same hubs, when concentrating assets and investments CVG is second only to ATL for DL while CLE is behind IAH and EWR. DL has put so much into building a connecting hub at CVG because after Atlanta it's their best hub.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13173
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:25 pm

Quoting DeltaMIA (Reply 43):
Beyond CLE CO has no other substantial operation.

Except for Guam where they have 737-800s and 767-400s operating to Fukuoka, Niigta, Sapporo, Sendai, Nagoya, Tokyo, Okyama, Hiroshima, Saipan, Taipei, Hong Kong, Denpasar/Bali, Cairns, Manila, Yap, Truk, Kosrae, Kwajalein, Majuro, Honolulu, etc..
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
stirling
Posts: 3897
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 2:00 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:07 pm

Well it looks like the CVG hub is going to get smaller.

26% reduction in capacity. Ouch!

Is Delta really on it's way to being an ATL-Only carrier?
CVG is surrounded on all sides by LCC competition, no wonder O&D there is in the toilet......Reality is; business travelers are acting like leisure travelers more every day...meaning; no longer are they so willing to accept high fares for convenience.

Knowing CVG's predominance of RJ flights; and the fact that the RJ is known as a more expensive aircraft to operate; could Delta have dug it's own grave in CVG?
As they say; "Hindsight is 20/20", but looking back in time, what should have Delta done instead?
Delete this User
 
padcrasher
Posts: 1815
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:17 am

RE: DL Stocks Continue Falling, Analysts Predict Filin

Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:23 pm

Quoting Stirling (Reply 48):
CVG is surrounded on all sides by LCC competition, no wonder O&D there is in the toilet......

Stirling you really need to get read up on industry news before spouting some nonsense straight out of the 1990's. CVG simplified fares long ago and saw a large surge in local travel. Being "surrounded" by LCC had nothing to do with it.
The fact of the matter is International and point to point service is where the higher yields are.

CVG has outlasted PIT/CLE/CMH and IND to be the only Midwest hubs not supporte by huge population centers ORD/DTW. To imply that CVG's problems stem from RJ use is uneducated puffery on your part.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 76er, AAlaxfan, asqx, Baidu [Spider], CANPILOT, connorc, Google Adsense [Bot], HALFA, legacyins, MrHMSH, msycajun, Pengaea, PSAjet17, rutankrd, shamrock350, SQfan1, StTim, WIederling and 279 guests