jetbluefan1
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When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sat Sep 03, 2005 2:09 pm

It seems that the immediate future for MSY is bleak. Very, at that. However, what should we expect as far as airlines and their schedules in, say, 4 or 5 months from now? Less frequencies? Dropped routes? Or even...a pull-out from the city all together?

I have already looked at B6's future MSY schedules. It looks like they'll be going from their original 3x JFK-MSY to only 1x a day. It's sad because the city was picking up momentum, but very unforunate things happened.

Does anyone know of future cuts from other airlines? I'm unfamiliar with other airlines' schedules out of the airport, but it's interesting to see what airlines are thinking for the future. Is MSY going to be a bare-bones operation?

Good natured comments are appreciated. This is NOT a thread talking about what is currently going on at MSY, but is instead discussing the future of the airport and facts that have already been established, such as future schedule cuts.

JetBluefan1
 
MAH4546
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sat Sep 03, 2005 2:35 pm

I think we are looking at late October/early November, the earliest, and, as you said, airlines will definitley be reducing schedules and cutting routes. I can't imagine, for example, AA will be resuming BOS-MSY.

I have also been hearing that airlines will be boosting capacity to Baton Rouge. For example, Continental Express is supposed to announce, on Monday, new EWR-BTR service, and Northwest Airlink is supposed to be announcing Detroit-Baton Rouge (both stated by New Orleans Time Picuayne).

And there was a rumour today I heard that AA is looking at introducing temporary ORD-BTR and MIA-BTR service as soon as next week that would last until at least MSY opens up, because BTR is acting as the pseudo-airport for people who need to get to the region, which includes a lot of aid traffic, a lot of cargo traffic, and a lot of insurance traffic, among many other things needed to get New Orleans up and running again. AA has already started operating S80s on DFW-BTR, and this will continue for a while.
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A330323X
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sat Sep 03, 2005 3:02 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
I can't imagine, for example, AA will be resuming BOS-MSY.

And I'll go out on a limb and say that US won't be starting the rumored FLL-MSY anytime soon. (More seriously, PIT-MSY certainly won't be returning as mainline, if at all.)

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
I have also been hearing that airlines will be boosting capacity to Baton Rouge. For example, Continental Express is supposed to announce, on Monday, new EWR-BTR service, and Northwest Airlink is supposed to be announcing Detroit-Baton Rouge (both stated by New Orleans Time Picuayne).

And there was a rumour today I heard that AA is looking at introducing temporary ORD-BTR and MIA-BTR service as soon as next week that would last until at least MSY opens up, because BTR is acting as the pseudo-airport for people who need to get to the region, which includes a lot of aid traffic, a lot of cargo traffic, and a lot of insurance traffic, among many other things needed to get New Orleans up and running again. AA has already started operating S80s on DFW-BTR, and this will continue for a while.

I understand US will likely be resuming CLT-BTR service soon, and DCA-BTR is a possibility as well. The CLT service could be permanent (US served the route from 2000 to 2003), but any DCA service would probably just be until MSY reopened. US is a bit trickier than the others since they don't currently serve the airport at all and would likely need more lead time to market new service, open a new station, and arrange for Mesa or PSA to fly there. If they decide to go through with it, I'd probably expect an announcement around Tuesday. I think the only big thing holding it back is that US might not want a distraction like that on top of the merger.

I also read that B6 has expressed interest in BTR, but I think they were probably just being polite to the airport authority.
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FlyingTexan
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sat Sep 03, 2005 3:51 pm

It will be interesting to see what SWA does. They have indefinitely suspended MSY bookings. They are offering ticketed MSY passengers reroutes thru HOU, BHM, LIT, JAN, or BNA no penalty. They are also offering refunds.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
ORD-BTR

Seems to me they were running that route in 2000 with an ER3.
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atrude777
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sat Sep 03, 2005 3:56 pm

with STL, AA operated 2 MD80 and 2 RJ correct? STL-MSY? This was the only n/s. Will this change to BTR?

Or be dropped completely?

Alex
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MAH4546
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 1:25 am

Quoting FlyingTexan (Reply 3):

Seems to me they were running that route in 2000 with an ER3.

Yes. It ended in April 2002, along with some other routes, as the result of a pilot dispute.

Quoting Atrude777 (Reply 4):
with STL, AA operated 2 MD80 and 2 RJ correct? STL-MSY? This was the only n/s. Will this change to BTR?

Or be dropped completely?

AA operated one daily S80 and one daily ERJ. I have not heard plans to do STL-BTR, only MIA/ORD-BTR. STL-MSY will likely resume when the airport re-opens, but probably only with RJs.
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ER757
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:27 am

I would think that in the months ahead that most if not all airlines will offer reduced frequencies and/or smaller aircraft for a period of time. The city will take many, many months to regain anything close to its former status as a tourist destination and businesses will only gradually get back up to speed. So the demand for seats to/from MSY will naturally follow the same curve. I can only wish all those affected the very best and hope for the speediest recovery possible.
 
ltbewr
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 7:17 am

Some other issues as MSY reopening: The ability to bring the airport back to full operation in a secure and safe enviroment. The ATC systems, the electrical systems, lighting, security infrastrucure, terminal buildings, hangers all must be restored to a resonable level, not only from the flooding in parts of the property, but from the storm damage itself. Access to the airport will be an issue too, from downtown and the region. Many bridges and roads were damaged by the storm and floods. Temporary or restored housing on high ground in the city or just outside of is necessary for the employees to work at all levels at the airport. Conventions and tourists will be long kept away, maybe years, reducing the need for past service levels. I would also suspect that the airport will be a major staging location for relief and recovery operations.
I do agree that BTR will become the defacto commercial airport for the region for the forseeable future - at least into early 2006. It will be needed for the movement of relief and revovery workers, insurance companies, companies restoring their facilities in the region, as well as residents returning to deal with their properties.
 
dutchjet
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:04 am

Its going to take a long time for New Orleans to rebuild and recover - and until the city and the surrounding region regains some sense of normality, demand for travel to and from the area is going to remain depressed. Also consider that New Orleans attracted a good number of tourists and was a major convention city, and its going to be years until New Orleans will again have the infrastructure to accommodate tourists and conventions and even home-port cruise ships, thus, for the forseeable future, New Orleans will see far less air traffic.

On the other hand, once the first stages of this disaster are overcome, the city will rebuild.....there will be an influx of construction workers and business travellers into the area which will create some demand.

The disaster in the Gulf is simply incomprehesible......for how long will New Orleans remain a ruined city that cannot accommodate its residents?
 
LambertMan
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:58 am

Seeing New Orleans in its current state makes me feel sick, literally. This hurricane only adds fuel to the fire that is the stagnant New Orleans economy. Although it had supposedly been getting better and better over the past few years, this has to set it back at least a decade?

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 5):
AA operated one daily S80 and one daily ERJ. I have not heard plans to do STL-BTR, only MIA/ORD-BTR. STL-MSY will likely resume when the airport re-opens, but probably only with RJs.

Although I have no clue what AA's plans are, I wouldn't bet against STL-BTR as a temporary replacement. STL-MSY, last I heard (spring of '04), did well for the most part. That gives me reason to hope for it to return at some point with rj's, mainline is likely gone.

It wouldn't surprise me if some carriers with a small presence in New Orleans pull out completely for the time being (AC, F9, Grupo, YX).
 
N77014
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:50 am

It is obvious that beyond the current situation, the economic recovery of New Orleans will be a process that will be measured in years. NOLA has built itself into a base for conventions and leisure. It did NOT have a large incumbent business community which needed to be there by necessity, such that it couldn't be replicated elsewhere.

My prediction: the Greater Houston area, with IAH, will reap the benefits of this at it is close enough for displaced persons and business to permanently relocate and start over. Houston offers everything that pre-hurricane NOLA did not; a diversified economy, favorable business climate, strong middle class, etc.

However, since it will be some time before economic activity recovers or even relocates, I feel the commercial aviation situation is in a grim state, with fallout affecting much beyond the price of fuel. MSY was a major destination for AA, DL, CO, and WN, and this is lost, with much business perhaps never returning.

Recall that Galveston a century ago was a wealthy city along the Gulf. A hurricane changed that, and gave way for Houston to grow from the safer perspective of an inland location. Galveston limped along, and now is not much more than a spring break stop. I fear the same for NOLA.
A new life awaits you in the Off-World Colonies...
 
halls120
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:59 am

Quoting N77014 (Reply 10):
My prediction: the Greater Houston area, with IAH, will reap the benefits of this at it is close enough for displaced persons and business to permanently relocate and start over. Houston offers everything that pre-hurricane NOLA did not; a diversified economy, favorable business climate, strong middle class, etc.

You forgot one other attribute - it isn't surrounded on three sides by water, and below sea level.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
MAH4546
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:08 am

Quoting LambertMan (Reply 9):

Although I have no clue what AA's plans are, I wouldn't bet against STL-BTR as a temporary replacement.

It would not surprise me. It could also turn out to be an important regional route. Though, as of Friday, it wasn't being talked about. Things quickly change, though, especially in this situation.
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RL757PVD
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:26 am

Rumor has it that WN is completely redoing their schedule starting with the 9/14 one, This is further evidenced by the fact that all signs of MSY in their future schedules have been eliminated. (though for other cities is still shows MSY connections, but no MSY flights)

like the thread i started last week, i mentioned that WN is not gonna let these planes sit aorund waiting for MSY to return, and and with significantly reduced demand at that.

I expect WN to add new flights throughout the system and to essentially "re open" the MSY station with 20-30 flights at the appropriate time and add further as demand warrants.

I agree that BTR's role will be significantly changed during this time. The long term picture wont be known for at least 6 months. We can speculate all we want, but the extent to which MSY will rebound (50%-75% or 100%) remains to be seen.
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BostonGuy
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 11:58 am

Huge numbers of small to medium sized business that were based in New Orleans are snatching up office space in Baton Rouge. Companies don't like to move, so it will be a challenge to get these businesses to move back into New Orleans should it re-open.

Another ominous sign is the large number of home sales in Baton Rouge area to upper income people from New Orleans who are seeking to obtain a home and avoid a tight and expensive market should it become clear New Orleans will be uninhabitable for quite some time.

Losing a chunk of locally headquarted business and a chunk of middle and upper income residents, combined with a substantial loss of tourism and convention business (would you want to attend a convention at the New Orleans Convention Center knowing the horrors that went on inside?) will probably set back passenger traffic in New Orleans significantly.

It will take dynamic and visionary leaders (local & state government as well as business) with proven track records to bring New Orleans back.

Without such leadership I think BTR will wind up being the dominant airport and MSY will become a secondary airport serving "exurbs".
 
N77014
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:43 pm

Quoting BostonGuy (Reply 14):
It will take dynamic and visionary leaders (local & state government as well as business) with proven track records to bring New Orleans back.

Seeing how recent events have been handled...how is that supposed to happen? The middle class will leave for good, taking investment money and their business elsewhere. I fear NOLA will become a bit like Venice; a historic enclave dedicated to tourism, with industry and commerce gone elsewhere.
A new life awaits you in the Off-World Colonies...
 
UALPHLCS
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Sun Sep 04, 2005 1:00 pm

Airlines returning to MSY are very dependent on toursit traffic. One reason why discount carriers are so plentiful there including TED. Obviously, Airline schduling will depend heavily on the condition of the airport. And for the immmediate future airlines will probably do a fair buisness for the next few years as NOLA becomes the construction capital of the US. As the largest city it will undoubtedly become the transportation hub of the reconstruction effort.

But once that is done, or at least well underway traffic will probably drop off, due to the lack of tourist infrasructure left. NOLA will lose out on MANY YEARS of conventions because of this. NOLA was second only to Las Vegas in large convention bookings. On the other hand Cruise ships will probably continue to use NOLA as a port. It is a multi-facted problem, with lots of reasons for potential loss of service and losts of reasons for airlines to continue to serve MSY. Only time will tell.
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MAH4546
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:50 pm

Quoting UALPHLCS (Reply 16):
On the other hand Cruise ships will probably continue to use NOLA as a port.

Not for now. Carnival Cruise Lines has already announced it is suspending sailings from New Orleans indefinitely.
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luv2fly
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:47 pm

Quoting UALPHLCS (Reply 16):
On the other hand Cruise ships will probably continue to use NOLA as a port.

The reason Cruise lines have started using all these other ports to depart from was for the simple reason, lift available from airlines. No lift available no way to fill the ship, hence you are not likely to see any cruise line returning anytime soon to MSY!
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
whiskeyhotel
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Tue Sep 06, 2005 4:31 am

I'm currently looking into booking an IAH-BTR trip in late september (Girlfriend is relocating to BTR since LSUNO Med School is relocating there) and was curious if the listed 73G service (In addition to the ERJ service) is new since Katrina. I can't recall CO sending anything other than ERJs into BTR in the past.
 
commavia
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:06 am

As for AA, I could envision their MSY schedule after it reopens like this:

DFW - from 8x MD80 down to 6x MD80
ORD - from 4x MD80 down to 3x MD80
LGA - from 2x MD80 down to 1x seasonal MD80
MIA - from 3x 738 down to 2x 738
STL - 1x MD80/1x ERJ cancelled completely
BOS - 1x seasonal MD80 cancelled completely
 
Type-Rated
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:16 am

Plus NO was no slouch when it came to energy businesses. Most oil companies have large offices in NO, and quite a few of these will be moving their offices to Houston for the interim. So they can effectively transfer their NO employees to Houston and set up shop there, but the hitch is all the available housing in Houston is taken up, where do you put these employees besides home sharing? One oil company is doing just that, they are recommending that all their employees "adopt a NO Company Family" and take them in.
Another thing that bothers me is the rather small amount of money these energy companies have donated so far to the hurricane relief efforts. Some that declare their annual profits in the millionS only gave 2 million. Heck, our church alone has donated One Million! And that is just one location! Walmart has effectively donated over 23 million so far.
Rather embarrassing, isn't it?
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stirling
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:57 pm

Quoting N77014 (Reply 10):
the economic recovery of New Orleans will be a process that will be measured in years. NOLA has built itself into a base for conventions and leisure. It did NOT have a large incumbent business community which needed to be there by necessity, such that it couldn't be replicated elsewhere.

I think what we are seeing now, is that for as fun as NOLA was, it was a city on the edge; a fragile system that would have had major problems anyway, 20-30 years down the road; whether or not Katrina hit.
If New Orleans is to be rebuilt...it needs to be brought up to a higher level; and that could take decades or more.....and require billions of dollars, maybe trillions...are we prepared to spend that kind of money? Only for it to happen again?
As painful as all this is, remember, the hurricane only speeded up the process; ushered in the inevitable; forcing NOLA to do what it has needed to do for hundreds of years; address its position below sea-level in a violent storm zone.

Beyond the French Quarter....what in NOLA CANNOT be taken care of in Houston or Baton Rouge?
Welcome to the Modern American Ghost Town.
Sad, very very sad.

Quoting N77014 (Reply 10):
Recall that Galveston a century ago was a wealthy city along the Gulf. A hurricane changed that, and gave way for Houston to grow from the safer perspective of an inland location. Galveston limped along, and now is not much more than a spring break stop. I fear the same for NOLA.

In this scenario Baton Rouge is to New Orleans as Houston was to Galveston, and it's a valid statement. At this early point, it might be too harsh of a reality for some to grasp, but an outcome no less tangible....How does a city survive without residents?

As for Airports and Airplanes....at least Baton Rouge has a nice big piece of ground to build upon..(or at least it does from my memory..)
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IAD2BTR
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:42 am

BTR does have the ability to absorb more flights. The largest challenge will be airport infrastructure. There are only eight gates at BTR & the check-in facilities may not be able to accommodate a great number of additional airlines. Sharing gates & check-in space I would think is a great start, but there will be a limit to its capacity.

Also, due to its geography there is little to no room for runway expansion [similar to MSY]. It is hemmed in by Interstate 110, Plank Road, the town of Baker and the Baton Rouge Zoo to the north.

I would LOVE to see more flights permanently for BTR, but folks there should not count on all the new flights, people, etc. generating short term cash being there for the long haul.

I'm just glad BTR has the ability to service some of the folks down home.
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BostonGuy
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:57 am

Quoting IAD2BTR (Reply 23):
BTR does have the ability to absorb more flights. The largest challenge will be airport infrastructure. There are only eight gates at BTR & the check-in facilities may not be able to accommodate a great number of additional airlines. Sharing gates & check-in space I would think is a great start, but there will be a limit to its capacity.

Airstairs and self-serve kiosks will go a long way.

I'm sure BTR can handle it!
 
MSY-MSP
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:39 am

One thing that I have heard that will seriously effect the return of flights to MSY is how the city tries to restore the convention business and the sports business. Now before you all jump on me about what I am about to say i should tell you that I own a business in the French Quarter, so I do hear a lot from folks regarding the rebuilding of the city and the shape it will take. The city realizes that it needs this business to survive. without it they cannot survive as just a port.

1) The convention center needs to be cleaned up. The folks who went there made it an abosultly disgusting place to be. However, they will be able to clean this up and the current estimates are between 3 and 4 months.

2) The Superdome. Current thoughts are that it will be razed and a new stadium will be built there. There is talk about guarenteeing the city of New Orleans a large number of future superbowls. If this can be done, that is a good step forward. Also a new staduim may keep the saints in town, which will help as well. This will take time, but is probably a 2 year project

3) Returning businesses to NOLA. Most of the oil companies will return to New Orleans, as well as many others that were there pre-Katrina. The reason is the location of NOLA. BTR is just too far up the river to be usable as a major port. The rail lines are all there and for the most part intact. Also there will be large areas of land that will be available to build cargo facilities.

4) Residents returning. In truth this is going to be the hardest part of the whole situation. Many have said they will not return. Those that are returning are going to have to find places to live. We lost two homes in the lakeview area, and are hearing that they will be bulldozed down. That is roughly 10,000 homes that are going to be taken down. Then there is the 9th ward that will also be bulldozed down. The thing we haven't heard is are they going to let people rebuild there? That is really going to drive the recovery process. Our gut feeling is they are, but are going to require homes to be elevated significantly relative to the ground level. If the people do not return there will be no workers and everything falls apart. The poorer people are likely not to return, but some will. There will be many jobs that come open as rebuilding starts, and this will bring residents to the city. If the stay afterwards is the question.

5) Rumor has it that the city is planning on throwing out a lot of incentives to get the convention business back into the city. I have seen proposals of free convention space and some reduced or free hotel rooms. The fact remains that the city needs to get these folks back, and once they see that it has returned to "normal" the conventions will return. I am guessing that in 6 months you will see this publicity push.

Now after all of that, what does this mean for traffic at MSY.
1) When the airport re-opens for normal operations there will be significantly less traffic into and out of the airport. Most likely you will see service dropped from weaker markets. I would expect a 50% reduction in flights and about 75% reduction in capacity.

2) There will be a surge in traffic around Mardi Gras time, February 28, 2006. If the city comes out of this well, then you will start to see the return of traffic to MSY.

3) If Mardi Gras has serious problems we are looking at late August early September as the next gauging point. This is when the second set of conventions come to NOLA. At this point it is make or break for the city. If the conventions don't come, then that is it, NOLA becomes a small city with a port economy and that is it.

The truth on the whole situation turns on if the convention traffic returns, and how soon it returns. I think we should have a better idea in a year or so.
 
DeltaMIA
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RE: When MSY Reopens For Business (Future)

Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:38 am

From the MSY Airport Director.

They plan on opening up operations in about a month. However it will be limited to 8 flights per day. With 14 carriers not everyone will be able to use MSY initially. DL is only getting 1 flight per day.
BTR has taken on a lot of flights. DL has been operating 2 mainline flights a day in addition to their heavy DCI operation. However as already said it is getting difficult for BTR to successfully take on the increased operation by the incumbent airlines (with DL being the largest). UA, F9, and B6 are all fighting with the BTR airport authority in starting operations into BTR, but again infrastructure is the biggest issue as obviously BTR can't become MSY overnight. Fortunately for DL, CO, AA, NW they already were in position to quickly turn their BTR operation into something that can benefit the region. Time will tell.
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