JoFMO
Topic Author
Posts: 1840
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UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 11:39 am

Maybe it was already discussed in one of the other threads around the Wright amendments but I couldn't find it inside these mega-threads. So I would like to get some educated opinions in this separate thread.

What happens if the W.A comes to an end? Is it likely that the small non-hub carriers like UA, DL, NW etc move their flights to DAL? Or will all legacies stay in DFW and only Southwest starts longer routes from DAL?
I have no clue what might happen, because when I look at Houston or Chicago, the big international airports are still favourise over the smaller ones. But in Washington it is the opposite. Everybody seems to prefer DCA and IAD.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 11:49 am

>> What happens if the W.A comes to an end? Is it likely that the small non-hub carriers like UA, DL, NW etc move their flights to DAL?

Move? Probably not.

The accessable market of DFW is well over 4 million and growing, while DAL is convienient for maybe a static 1 million people. The logistic pros and cons have been weighted by many consultants and analyist, and the conclusion is that the biggest flux into DAL from DFW would come from AA.

What you may see is some carriers adding DAL as a spoke to their hubs. CO in particular might add an ERW-DAL, or DL may perhaps attempt to restart ATL-DAL service with aircraft larger than a CRJ200. UA and NW are a little iffy IMO.

Others worth mentioning:

FL would probably consider moving outright, but I doubt they would be able to finding an adequet number of gates could be a challenge.

B6 is still standing clear of the North Texas market. Given their stated preference of ORD gates over MDW gates, and the larger market that could be tapped from DFW, I doubt they would enter the metroplex via DAL.
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hz747300
Posts: 1956
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 11:49 am

Probably DAL will become a regular destination for UA with service from:
Denver
Chicago
Washington - Dulles
Los Angeles
San Francisco

Service from HP from:
Phoenix
Las Vegas

Service from CO from:
Newark
Houston International
Cleveland

Service from US from:
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Fort Lauderdale
Pittsburgh

Service from jetBlue from:
New York - JFK
Long Beach

Etc..., and longer routes from DAL on WN of course!!! The interesting thing will be the battle for gate space. And really, prices will drop for the Metroplex area...
Keep on truckin'...
 
OPNLguy
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RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 11:54 am

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 2):
Etc..., and longer routes from DAL on WN of course!!! The interesting thing will be the battle for gate space. And really, prices will drop for the Metroplex area...

Funny, there's a guy on that other thread that sure doesn't thing so...  Wink

Time will tell...
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
texan
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RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:00 pm

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 2):
Probably DAL will become a regular destination for UA with service from:
Denver
Chicago
Washington - Dulles
Los Angeles
San Francisco

Service from HP from:
Phoenix
Las Vegas

Service from CO from:
Newark
Houston International
Cleveland

Service from US from:
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Fort Lauderdale
Pittsburgh

Service from jetBlue from:
New York - JFK
Long Beach

Etc..., and longer routes from DAL on WN of course!!! The interesting thing will be the battle for gate space. And really, prices will drop for the Metroplex area...

UA maybe from DEN, but that would probably be it. CO already flies to IAH and used to operate DAL-CLE, but dropped it because nobody wanted to fly. US would not switch their flights, nor would jetBlue be likely to fly from DAL. HP would be a wild card. If they operated from DAL, I'd expect a split operation with just 4 or so daily flights from DAL. DL does not want anything to do with DAL again.

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 8828
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:13 pm

>> The interesting thing will be the battle for gate space. And really, prices will drop for the Metroplex area...

It would be one heck of a 6-Day War reenactment...

#1. DAL recently demolished unused concourses in accordance with the 2001 Love Field Master Plan, which limits DAL to a maximum of 32 gates. Some say this is null and void if the W.A. is removed, but at the least, it makes it bitching hard to add gate capacity in anything of a timely matter. Of these 32 gates, 28 are in the main passenger builing and 4 are in a remote terminal built by now defunct Legend Airlines.

The real value is in the 28 main gates, the remote terminal is not accessable from the airport entrance and proved quite confusing to Legend passengers. Perhaps a shuttle bus service could make them accessable, but lets just continue with 28 for the sake of discussion.

#2. WN currently opperates from 14 DAL gates, with immediate rights to an additional 6 if they so choose. WN is currently underutilizing its gates compared to the average arrival/departure rate for other WN stations, so there is a substantial amount of capacity that could be added from the gates they already have. The biggest WN station has 21 gates, but WN has said a WA-free DAL would most resemble HOU with 17 gates.

COex opperates from 2 gates, and AA has immediate rights to 3 gates. That leaves only three unclaimed gates in the main terminal building.

#3. If the W.A. were to go away, AA would likely take the action of immediatly activating their three gates. If AA were to fill 50-60 flights a day in a probable scenario, they would likely require 6 total gates, and having the most at stake, would move at haste to secure the 3 remaining gates.

WN would probably increase utilization at their existing gates, and expand to say, 18 gates. That leaves two prime gates for any and all new comers.

#4. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, AA has just performed a slight-dehub of their vaunted DFW opperations. Why in the heck would the smaller carriers at DFW duke it out over two measly gates when AA has just put a chink in their own DFW armour? The logical choice for the UA, DL, NW, CO, TZ, FL, HP, US types would be to continue competing from DFW.

Remember, it's just as expensive to move from DFW to DAL as it is to move from DAL to DFW... and moving cost is the reason WN won't budge.

#5. An equilibrium would probably be established by AA flying from about 3 gates to their hubs, 1-2 (probably CO mainline, DL) other carriers flying to their hubs, and WN opperating at about 16-18 gates. It isn't likely that HP/US, B6, UA, or NW would touch DAL IMO.

>> I have no clue what might happen, because when I look at Houston or Chicago, the big international airports are still favourise over the smaller ones. But in Washington it is the opposite. Everybody seems to prefer DCA and IAD.

DAL would likely resemble HOU or MDW before it would resemble the "desirable" "close-in" airports like LGA and DCA. Dallas-Fort Worth is so spread out that the majority of the population is equidistant to DFW, while DAL has only a very slight advantage for Dallas travlers. Certainly not anything that would make people fly to DAL because of its geography.

The real debate is low fares and the easiest way to arrive at them: (1)make WN move, (2) or let WN do business from where they are established. IMO, route #2 involves the fewest complications for all parties and ultimatly prevents the far more catastophic turf war that would be invoked if WN were to mossey on over to DFW.

I mean really... I can't imagine what AA would want less than WN at DFW. They should be helping WN glue their feet to DAL rather than looking at the shortsighted geographical/political considerations of the W.A.

[Edited 2005-09-08 05:14:51]
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
hz747300
Posts: 1956
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:19 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
I mean really... I can't imagine what AA would want less than WN at DFW. They should be helping WN glue their feet to DAL rather than looking at the shortsighted geographical/political considerations of the W.A.

Excellent point!  thumbsup 

The long-time big cheese over at AA (I forgot if his first or last name is Aaron--but that guy who would "arm wrestle you for a paperclip"), had a plan in place to move 100 flights to DAL immediately in the event that the Wright Ammendment was repealed. Does the new leadership not have that plan? Or, did they misplace the memo? Why are they so ancy about it?
Keep on truckin'...
 
jdaniel001
Posts: 619
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2005 2:36 pm

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:21 pm

I only see AA moving some flights to DAL to squash WN. No other airline should touch DAL with a ten foot pole.
We Are UNITED!
 
stirling
Posts: 3897
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 2:00 am

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:24 pm

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 2):
Service from CO from:
Newark
Houston International
Cleveland

You know CO already serves DAL from IAH.
Didn't they try CLE once? (Can't remember)

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 2):
Service from HP from:
Phoenix
Las Vegas

I can see both.
PHX and LAS have been big O&D markets from North Texas for as long as I can remember....going back to the 70's when AA and DL, followed later by BN, slugged it out with some serious heavy frequencies. (even AA threw a DC-10 on the route; amazing when one considers 97% of DFW flights were w/ the 727.)

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 2):
Probably DAL will become a regular destination for UA with service from:
Denver
Chicago
Washington - Dulles
Los Angeles
San Francisco

For some reason, I just don't think UA will look that closely at DAL, they have enough plates in the air as it were.

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 2):
Service from US from:
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Fort Lauderdale
Pittsburgh

This should be under the combined heading with HP, since by the time Wright is appealed, they will be most likely integrated fully.
So maybe PHL...WN will surely jump on this route, the other 3, most likely not.

Quoting JoFMO (Thread starter):
Is it likely that the small non-hub carriers like UA, DL, NW etc move their flights to DAL?

I am not sure I'd call these carriers "Small".
Delta? I don't think they'd retrace their failed steps. Remember, ASA once operated DAL-ATL for DL.
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JoFMO
Topic Author
Posts: 1840
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2004 1:55 am

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:26 pm

@DFW:

I understand you point with the geography of the metroplex area. Sounds quite logic.

But why should AA move a significant amount of flights to DAL? DFW is their hub. UA is nearly non existent in DCA and MDW, same with CO and LGA. Why should AA operate more flights from DAL than just to their other hubs?
 
jdaniel001
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Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2005 2:36 pm

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 1:48 pm

AA will add flights at DAL only to squash any chance of WN gaining a foothold on long distance flying. It may get pretty ugly.
We Are UNITED!
 
texan
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RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 1:54 pm

Quoting Stirling (Reply 8):
Didn't they try CLE once? (Can't remember)

Yes they did, I remember 2 daily ERJs, but it could have been 3. The flights did not fill well and had low yields. CLE will not return from DAL.

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
SonOfACaptain
Posts: 1695
Joined: Thu May 27, 2004 5:36 am

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 2:02 pm

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 2):
Service from US from:
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Fort Lauderdale
Pittsburgh

I have a hard time believing US would switch, but with the change coming, who knows. IF they ever decide to fly to DAL IF the W.A. gets lifted, they would most definitely abandon DFW. I just can't see US going into DAL, especially since it would be very congested. I also would think FLL would make the list. DCA I could believe.

Truthfully, I just can't see it happening. There is not enough gates to support WN, AA, UA, ect. along with the new US. US would need 3-4 gates.

-SOAC
Non Illegitimi Carborundum
 
hz747300
Posts: 1956
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 4:20 pm

I think I should clarify. Those proposed routes in my earlier posts would not be switches, rather just alternative service. Let's say HP is to offer seven flights to the Metroplex. 4 to DFW, 3 to DAL, etc...

The more I think about it--the less it makes sense for AA to compete directly with WN at DAL. So while I could see AA offering a ORD-DAL flight, and maybe a JFK-DAL flight, I now doubt that any serious transfer of operations would happen. It just would not be necessary.

The Metroplex is huge, and DAL is great for the corporate lawyer working downtown that needs to get to NY to depose a VP in a patent litigation lawsuit, but for the rest of the Metroplex, DFW is a better option. I've used both myself, and I did not care for DAL (r/t DAL-ELP since it is only a four hour drive to Eastern Arizona from ELP).
Keep on truckin'...
 
kanebear
Posts: 852
Joined: Tue May 28, 2002 12:06 am

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Thu Sep 08, 2005 10:53 pm

Quoting Jdaniel001 (Reply 10):
AA will add flights at DAL only to squash any chance of WN gaining a foothold on long distance flying. It may get pretty ugly.

I doubt it seriously. With oil the way it is, they'd be out of their minds to try to go head to head with a competitor that's got larger reserves and MUCH lower costs. Think about it, in the near term, WN can price themselves much lower than AA and still eke out a profit or at least break even while AA would be hemorrhaging red ink. AA is doing well and has a better leader at the helm. I would hope they'd see this for the tempest in the teapot it really is and realize the amount of traffic involved isn't backbreaking.
 
AAgent
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Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2001 11:41 pm

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Fri Sep 09, 2005 1:45 am

Quoting Kanebear (Reply 14):
Think about it, in the near term, WN can price themselves much lower than AA and still eke out a profit or at least break even while AA would be hemorrhaging red ink.

The thing is that the Wright Amendment will not likely be repealed in the very near term and Southwest's fuel hedge advantage will likely run out prior to the actual repeal (if and when it were to actually occur.) With the fuel hedge advantage likely gone at that point in time the battle will be on much more even footing. Therefore it is quite possible that American Airlines could be in a greatly improved competitive position, better able to market aggressively and effectively against the orange armada. Quite conceivably, the W.A. repeal could come at an awkward time for WN. Just a thought.

Best Regards,
AAgent
War Eagle!
 
jdaniel001
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Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2005 2:36 pm

RE: UA To DAL After W.A. Ends?

Fri Sep 09, 2005 1:56 am

Quoting Kanebear (Reply 14):
Think about it, in the near term, WN can price themselves much lower than AA and still eke out a profit or at least break even while AA would be hemorrhaging red ink. AA is doing well and has a better leader at the helm.

Agree with everything. However, AA will do anything to protect it's high yield revenue generators of the North Dallas, Highland Park, and University Park areas. Most of the platinum AA members live in those areas and WN is drooling over the thought that they could pick those right out of AA's back pocket. If the WA is repelled, AA will start offering ridiculous mile incententives for travel originating or terminating at DFW (much like UA did with IAD during the start up of Indy Air). If they are still loosing ridership from the premium passengers, AA will no doubt start competing service out of DAL. UA, US, NW, DL, and CO will also feel the heat from this little feud. I am only hoping that the others don't feel enough pain to desert DFW. If so, DFW will be forced to offer incentives to the airlines to stay put. Then the downward spiral of economic upheaval will start.
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