chinaeastern
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Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Tue Sep 13, 2005 7:50 am

there is currently no carriers serving PVG-AKL. so, if ever, who is going to start it first?
a few candidates here:
MU,NZ,BA,VS and LA?

if i don't see NZ1 here...............................................................
 
TG990
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Tue Sep 13, 2005 8:41 am

I think it's about time BA started service into AKL. At the moment if you're flying BA from LHR to New Zealand you have to fly into BKK then into SYD and then to AKL on QF.
I saw a recent study that reported that the British find New Zealand the top travel destination (or something like that). Also we are a commonwealth country with people who have big links with people in the UK and a large amount of people who choose to work/live their. So PVG would be a good opportunity to open a new route for this purpose.

Considering there's a large Chinese population living, studying and visiting here I really don't understand why there hasn't been a flight from mainland China to New Zealand for years already!

I'd love to see NZ fly their new 777's on this route.

[Edited 2005-09-13 01:47:39]
 
HKGKaiTak
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Tue Sep 13, 2005 8:58 am

Quoting TG990 (Reply 1):
I'd love to see NZ fly their new 777's on this route.

Ditto. But is there good enough yield on this route if it terminates at PVG? I have no idea what the business traffic is between NZ and China but I'm guessing it would not be nearly as good as that between Oz and China. Students and VFR traffic only travels in certain times of the year and these are generally low-yielding. (What do the Chinese students in NZ fly to return home?)

One problem too is that Oz and NZ are bundled together as a tourist destination in the view of Asians in general. If they visit NZ they would almost certainly visit Oz as well. They might fly into NZ but out from Oz or vice versa, which means they don't need a direct China-NZ service. And again leisure tourism is low yielding also.

So a PVG-AKL route doesn't make much economic sense to me.

Does NZ have the rights to fly beyond China? Why not fly their 777 to PVG and then onwards to Europe?
4 Engines 4 LongHaul
 
6thfreedom
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Tue Sep 13, 2005 10:19 am

Quoting HKGKaiTak (Reply 2):
So a PVG-AKL route doesn't make much economic sense to me.

Does NZ have the rights to fly beyond China? Why not fly their 777 to PVG and then onwards to Europe?

Agree on both counts.

MU has operated charters into AKL in the past, but given fuel prices and increased capacity to MEL and SYD, I can't see them extending on to AKL.

QF also codeshare on MU services b/w PVG and Australia, so MU prob gets favourable rates on the Tasman.
 
777ER
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Tue Sep 13, 2005 4:15 pm

Rumors started ages ago that NZ were thinking of PVG services when more aircraft arrived. This new possible destination and one or two more in the same rumor has not been confirmed nor denied.

Quoting TG990 (Reply 1):
I saw a recent study that reported that the British find New Zealand the top travel destination

http://www.airliners.net/discussions/non_aviation/read.main/928486 Is this what your talking about TG990?
 
ZK-NBT
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Tue Sep 13, 2005 6:16 pm

Seriously it is about time someone started non stop service to PVG ex AKL! An awful lot of CX and SQ's pax ex AKL connect to China! Also alot of people fly to SYD and then connect to CZ, MU, CA's flights. I definatly think the market is there for non-stop flights! NZ have been as 777ER said above have been looking at the Chinese market for sometime!

NZ do have traffic rights beyond China so an AKL-PVG-LHR route could be possible if they can't get the rights to go via HKG.

LA could also be a possibility here with them looking at China, so a SCL-AKL-PVG service maybe. As much as I would like to see BA come back to AKL its not that likely unfortunatly. Even with the England-NZ market very strong, there is alot of competition. And it takes 3 aircraft and alot of crew to run a daily service.
 
6thfreedom
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Tue Sep 13, 2005 8:52 pm

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 5):
Seriously it is about time someone started non stop service to PVG ex AKL! An awful lot of CX and SQ's pax ex AKL connect to China! Also alot of people fly to SYD and then connect to CZ, MU, CA's flights. I definatly think the market is there for non-stop flights! NZ have been as 777ER said above have been looking at the Chinese market for sometime!

Is there any data that supports this view?

Brisbane for example, has over 220,000 passenger movements to/from China, eyt has no direct services. The market is adequately served by SQ and CX, and it will be at least another 12 months before a carrier launches non-stop services.

What are the figures for China-NZ?

the latest i can find is for 2002.
http://www.trcnz.govt.nz/Topics/Visi...+Travel/#Countries%20of%20Visitors

76000 chinese visitors to china,

http://www.trcnz.govt.nz/NR/rdonlyre...B05B2B/5933/2004OutboundReport.pdf

the total NZ outbound market is 663,000. so even if 10% is to China [which is a very high estimate], that's 63,000 pax.

so it is fair to say that the current China-NZ market is 139,000 pax per year [absolute maximum].

an airline serving the market non-stop on a 300 seat aircraft 3pw would offer 93,600 seats per annum.

given that SQ and CX etc are daily or more, you would assume the non-stop service would capture 35% market share at best.

35% of 139,000 pax = 48650 pax
48650 pax / 93600 seats pa = 52% seat utilisation.

so why would u bother when u consider fuel costs, staff costs etc...
 
ZKSUJ
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Tue Sep 13, 2005 9:42 pm

It was in the paper last year that NZ were considering PVG. Also if they want to continue to europe, FRA and CDG may be good routes with the 772s.
 
ZKOJH
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:15 am

I heard that (NZ) are planning on going into Zurich ! Since I was at Zurich Airport yesterday, waiting for my flight to MAN, I spoke to some Swiss Staff and they were confidant , thou think it might be a codeshare when SWISS join Star next year, haven't NZ already got a codeshare into Zurich??

The rumor about PVG seems to have gone very quite, from NZ, thou they haven't got ANY planes from Boeing yet, hint someone is on strike !! , more then anything, NZ will start the route, but when is anyone's thinking, the AGM next month , in AUCKLAND, might give some light ,,
Vietnam time..
 
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NZ107
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:26 am

Too bad Mr Norris didn't release anything.. It would have been nice to see him add another flight before he went.
It's all about the destination AND the journey.
 
6thfreedom
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:20 am

Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 7):
It was in the paper last year that NZ were considering PVG. Also if they want to continue to europe, FRA and CDG may be good routes with the 772s

I think that the PVG_AKL route would need to be a stopover for an AIR NZ service onto Europe. I don't think a Chinese carrier could sustain it year round, as indicated in my calculations...

I also don't think that the Chinese carriers have the pulling power in Europe.

NZ operating AKL-PVG-EUROPE, with a chinese carrier codesharing on PVG_AKL is the way to go.
 
ZKSUJ
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:33 am

I think the currently code share with SQ to ZRH. Wouldnt it be interesting if the did daily AKL-PVG and have selected days where they serve ZRH, FRA and CDG fro PVG  Smile Oh well, just dreaming right now  Wink
 
6thfreedom
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:56 pm

Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 11):
I think the currently code share with SQ to ZRH. Wouldnt it be interesting if the did daily AKL-PVG and have selected days where they serve ZRH, FRA and CDG fro PVG Oh well, just dreaming right now

I don't think NZ codeshare on SQ flight to ZRH.


As for the choice between FRA and CDG.. here are the schedules:

MTWTFSS 1:50p PVG 6:25p FRA 1 LH 729 Non-stop 744 11:35
MTWTFSS 1:50p PVG 6:25p FRA 1 *CA 6229 Non-stop 747 11:35
MTWTF*S 12:55p PVG 5:40p FRA 1 CA 935 Non-stop 74E 11:45
MTWTF*S 12:55p PVG 5:40p FRA 1 *LH 2939 Non-stop 74E 11:45

M*W**S* 11:30a PVG 5:00p CDG 1 CA 949 Non-stop 340 12:30
MTWTFSS 12:00p PVG 5:30p CDG 2C AF 117 Non-stop 772 12:30
MTWTFSS 11:55p PVG 5:30a+1 CDG 2CMU 553 Non-stop 346 12:35


Given there is more capacity on CDG, I think NZ would be best placed to go AKL-PVG-FRA, with the departure ex-PVG being around midnight.

This would allow Star carrier LH and Star aligned CA to codeshare on NZ services to FRA.

FRA as a hub would also provide a perfect entry into Europe, with pax feed to/from LH's extensive European network.

A rough schedule would be:
AKL 1620
PVG 2240
PVG 2359
FRA 0540+1
 
ZK-NBT
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:35 pm

I'm not really a figures person. I agree that an NZ service to China would be best extending to Europe.

Strange really how the Chinese carriers aren't big in Europe, considering the size of the Chinese market. That could be a factor in AKL not getting a mainland Chinese carrier.

China Southwest flew a few flights to AKL in the winter of 1999 with an A343. Flights started at 1 weekly and were to increase to 2 over the summer. They only operated 4 flights total. Not that surprising given the time of year they started and also the fact that they aren't 1 of the big 3 carriers in China.

Air China flew to AKL from July 2000 to March 2001, they operated a 744 on a PVG-SYD-AKL 2x weekly. Wrong aircraft, not non-stop and via SYD making it worse being that there is alot of competition on the route.

China Eastern operated charters to AKL in December 2003 January 2004 with 2 weekly 343's. Loads seemed to be ok, and I get the feeling they did it to test the market and loads were reasonable and it was non stop. I did read on another forum that they may make the flight scheduled but that never happened.

While I agree that it is a reasonably seasonal market it seems that there is a need for non stop flights to me, I mean afterall a non stop verse a 1 stop service surely must appeal more to the customer. So weather it be BA, MU, NZ or anyone else, there will be IMO an AKL-PVG non stop service within 2 years. Taking into account also that it is a fast developing market.

I'd say BNE will get a mainland Chinese carrier within 2-3 years aswell.
 
6thfreedom
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:34 pm

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 13):
I'm not really a figures person.

Unfortunately, or fortunately these days, figures do play a role in airline decision making. so while many of us specators have wish lists, I think commercial reality must prevail when airlines are making such big investments on opening new routes.

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 13):
While I agree that it is a reasonably seasonal market it seems that there is a need for non stop flights to me, I mean afterall a non stop verse a 1 stop service surely must appeal more to the customer.

Seasonality is a MAJOR factor for the chinese market. This Nov-March, China Eastern is adding 3pw PVG-MEL-PVG on top of it's scheduled 3pw PVG-MEL-SYD-PVG services. The moral of the story is:
1. It's a safer option to add capacity during peak than operate it year-round
2. With an office and crewing in MEL, it's easier to add capacity
3. As a bonus for all southern hemisphere destinations, Chinese carriers can operate supplementary services to the USA or Europe furing the northern summer, but there is a big opportunity for supps or charters during the northern winter (Nov-Mar), when.. a) The aircraft a surplus to northern hemisphere requirements, b) this coincides with peak season for travel ex-China, and c) we have the warmer weather in the southern hemisphere, and the Chinese are seeking a summer holiday!
 
ZKSUJ
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:43 pm

6th freedom-Funny that. I know they used to cs with SQ on the ZRH route, I was on the plane when they said thanks for flying.....with code share partners Air NZ.....

Things must have changed.
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 8:55 pm

Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 15):
6th freedom-Funny that. I know they used to cs with SQ on the ZRH route, I was on the plane when they said thanks for flying.....with code share partners Air NZ.....

Things must have changed.

NZ's website still shows SIN-ZRH codeshare - but then again we all know how up-to-date a lot of airline websites are(n't)  Wink

http://www.airnz.co.nz/timetablesand...es/international_routes_europe.htm
 
ZKSUJ
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:16 pm

Hmm, I missed that. Maybe they do still CS then.....  Smile
 
6thfreedom
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 8:54 am

Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 17):
Hmm, I missed that. Maybe they do still CS then.....

Hmm, i could be wrong...

The sept issue of Airline Business mag lists ZRH as a codeshare for NZ, yet it does not come up on the latest OAG data, which is what i based my comments on.

Perhaps they still do codeshare...
 
chinaeastern
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:54 am

thanks guys for the replies

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 13):
Air China flew to AKL from July 2000 to March 2001, they operated a 744 on a PVG-SYD-AKL 2x weekly. Wrong aircraft, not non-stop and via SYD making it worse being that there is alot of competition on the route.

actually, that was PEK-PVG-SYD-AKL. CA just seem to be enjoying doing services 2 stops away from their PEK hub. some of their MEL services are still doing that.

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 12):
A rough schedule would be:
AKL 1620
PVG 2240
PVG 2359
FRA 0540+1

not bad timing, that means possibility to connect MUC service as well.

Quoting Chinaeastern (Thread starter):
One problem too is that Oz and NZ are bundled together as a tourist destination in the view of Asians in general. If they visit NZ they would almost certainly visit Oz as well. They might fly into NZ but out from Oz or vice versa, which means they don't need a direct China-NZ service.

this is mainly due to the lack of traffic. a year ago, there was still hongkong-oz bundled package which was really weired. NZ itself is big enough for a holiday and i reckon at least 2 months should be spent in NZ in anyone's lifetime. i absolutely loved it, plus there is destination beyond NZ which QF can't even think about competing with. About the yield, a big proportion of chinese tourists fly J class as they don't pay for it themselves (only happens in communist coutries which r no longer communist, instead about thinking about the ironic aspect, why not just enjoy it?) Y+ could be a bit hard to sell. for Y, just treat the back half of the 777 as low cost. i mean SIN or HKG route still offer lots of cheap seats.

it would be good if NZ extend from PVG beyond to europe. CDG wouldn't help much as there are lots of seats available from PVG-CDG( though i don't know what the hell CA is doing there offering trice-weekly services, they seem to be interested in every european route out of PVG, FRA, CDG, MXP and FCO).
plus there is millions of asian carriers offering AKL-somewhere-CDG plus TN.

FRA should be good and they can codeshare on MUC as well. maybe they can codeshare with AF as well to CDG given the proximity of MUC and CDG departure time from PVG, as AF does not have a partner to NZ yet.

ZRH sounds very attractive, the yield should be high and LX would be able to provide beyond routes. as ZRH is not part of EU, baggage can be checked through to final distination.
 
ZK-NBT
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:40 pm

An article in the NZ hearld from Thursday.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/7/story.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=10346725

Interesting! Seems the China market is really going to swell. I read the other day somewhere else that the lack of direct (non stop) flights was preventing further growth at this stage.

Also increased flights to Britain and Singapore are possible. Are they looking at SIN-LHR?
 
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NZ1
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Fri Sep 23, 2005 5:25 pm

My lips are sealed - to a certain extent. You won't see much movement on, lets say, new routes, until the 777's arrive. I was told today that ZK-OKA and OKB may not arrive in AKL until mid December at the earliest.

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NZ107
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:36 pm

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 21):
I was told today that ZK-OKA and OKB may not arrive in AKL until mid December at the earliest.

Which trans-tasman flight has priority for the 777 once it returns from the SFO leg? Thanks
It's all about the destination AND the journey.
 
onedude
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:39 pm

I was at an NZ evening function at Parliament House in QLD about 6 months ago. The head of Tourism Queensland was pushing NZ to stop in BNE on the way back from PVG. Ralph Norris said at the time this was a possibility. Also in the past NZ have stopped in BNE to sustain their Asia services.
 
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NZ107
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:46 pm

I think that people would prefer nonstop services to their destinations. TG recently said that they were going to cut out the AKL-BNE-BKK for the sacrifice of a direct flight. I would expect a nonstop service.
It's all about the destination AND the journey.
 
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Fri Sep 23, 2005 7:05 pm

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 22):
Which trans-tasman flight has priority for the 777 once it returns from the SFO leg? Thanks

I'm not sure if there is a priority. Currently, the 744 returning from SFO usually goes on to BNE. However this changes from time to time.

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6thfreedom
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Sat Sep 24, 2005 7:51 am

Quoting Onedude (Reply 23):
I was at an NZ evening function at Parliament House in QLD about 6 months ago. The head of Tourism Queensland was pushing NZ to stop in BNE on the way back from PVG. Ralph Norris said at the time this was a possibility. Also in the past NZ have stopped in BNE to sustain their Asia services.

If the service was only PVG-AKL, then operating via BNE would be feasible, and an excellent idea.

If NZ was able to operate beyond, perhaps to FRA or even LHR, then the stop in BNE would not make sense.
 
ZK-NBT
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RE: Who Is Going To Start PVG-AKL First?

Sat Sep 24, 2005 11:50 am

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 26):
If the service was only PVG-AKL, then operating via BNE would be feasible, and an excellent idea.

If the China NZ market grows 124% as predicted over the next 6 years, then I don't think this flight will be stopping anywhere, it would be daily 772 service AKL-PVG IMO. I guess for a start though stopping in BNE is ok, atleast it is a same plane direct service.

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 26):
If NZ was able to operate beyond, perhaps to FRA or even LHR, then the stop in BNE would not make sense.

I am wondering because if they can go beyond and can't get rights for HKG-LHR, then an AKL-PVG-LHR could start at 3x weekly going to daily after 1 year and would be a 744. I wonder if they would place restrictions on the number of PAX allowed to be picked up in PVG to go through to LHR? Since LAX-LHR is so lucrative for NZ though I think they would place people going AKL-LHR on the service via PVG where possible to make sure they reserve the maximum number of seats on the LAX-LHR service for people to board at LAX. If that makes any sence.

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 24):
TG recently said that they were going to cut out the AKL-BNE-BKK for the sacrifice of a direct flight.

That was actually because the flight was unprofitable. It was AKL-SYD-BKK that was reduced in favour of a non stop flight 3x weekly, which started in July, and will go daily when TG have enough aircraft.

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