klmcedric
Posts: 696
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 11:19 pm

WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:31 pm

Southwest Airlines has asked Boeing to develop a new more fuel efficient
version of the 737-700.The new airliner must contain technical developments
from the 787 dreamliner and new engines.That's what WN CEO Garry Kelly
said in the "Seattle Times".
Although the current profits are secured for the short term, due to strategic
hedging of fuel, the CEO is worried about the future if oilprices keep rising.
A more fuel-efficient airplane will be necessary in the long term.
Kelly also states that WN is very happy about the 737-700 performance, but
now that the 737NG is 8 years old the time has come for a successor.

IMO, very interesting news.
NW is the single largest operator of B737 by far, their demand won't
certainly not be neglected by Boeing.That means that if Boeing makes
a move for a new single-aisler, Airbus won't have the option to wait to long
to do the same thing.

Could this be the startsignal for a next generation of 737/320 coming
up? I certainly hope so.

Regards
 
flypdx
Posts: 603
Joined: Sun Apr 24, 2005 3:19 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:39 pm

Quoting KLMcedric (Thread starter):
NW is the single largest operator of B737 by far, their demand won't

Might want to change that..
 
N1120A
Posts: 26468
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 5:40 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:42 pm

Quoting Flypdx (Reply 1):
Quoting KLMcedric (Thread starter):
NW is the single largest operator of B737 by far, their demand won't

Might want to change that..

Yeah, because NW has never flown a 737. WN, however, is not only the single largest operator of the 737, but they are also the largest operator of any single aircraft family.

BTW, it wont be a new version of the 737-700. It will either be called something different or would be the 737-1100 in this line of thinking
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
keesje
Posts: 8864
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:45 pm

I think there is pressure on Snecma, GE and RR and Pratt to come up with something new.

Maybe R&D is pulled forward..
http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/10/19/biz_biz1cfm.html
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
Btriple7
Posts: 1207
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:58 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:45 pm

Will the next version of the 737 be fly-by-wire? Also, will the next 737 have a fuselage width comparable to the A320 (18 inch seat-width).

Thanks,
Btriple7
Just...fly.
 
klmcedric
Posts: 696
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 11:19 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:48 pm

Sorry for this obvious mistake.
Offcourse I meant WN, I'm having trouble re-editing, can't type my username
anymore, but I stand corrected with this.
 
FriendlySkies
Posts: 3540
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:57 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:50 pm

Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 4):
Will the next version of the 737 be fly-by-wire? Also, will the next 737 have a fuselage width comparable to the A320 (18 inch seat-width).

Nobody could possibly know this, but I will say that Boeing would have to be extremely ignorant to deliver anything less.
 
Boeing Nut
Posts: 5078
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2001 2:42 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:54 pm

Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 4):
Will the next version of the 737 be fly-by-wire? Also, will the next 737 have a fuselage width comparable to the A320 (18 inch seat-width).

I imagine that any short comings of the 737NG, what danm few there are, will be rectified in the "797".
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
luisca
Posts: 1530
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2001 11:37 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:57 pm

Interesting, though I do think that it will be probably 10 more years before a launch. Airbus still has plenty of life left on the A320, but they have to move fast.
If Boeing starts developing something in the next 5-6 years, airbus will have a lot of money spent on the A350, A380 and A400, and probably wont have seen a profit from anyone of them yet. This situation can give Boeing the upper hand when the next cicle comes in, although maybe it still is to soon. AA, DL, CO, WN, CM, GOL, etc still have brand spanking new 737NGs and I dont think they have in mind finding a replacement for another 10-15 years.
If it ain't Boeing (or Embraer ;-)) I ain't Going!
 
Maersk737
Posts: 654
Joined: Sun Feb 22, 2004 3:37 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:04 am

Quoting Luisca (Reply 8):
If Boeing starts developing something in the next 5-6 years, airbus will have a lot of money spent on the A350, A380 and A400, and probably wont have seen a profit from anyone of them yet. This situation can give Boeing the upper hand when the next cicle comes in,

Why does it give Boeing the upper hand?

Cheers

Peter
I'm not proud to be a Viking, just thankfull
 
User avatar
ERJ170
Posts: 5486
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:15 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:11 am

Quoting Luisca (Reply 8):
AA, DL, CO, WN, CM, GOL, etc still have brand spanking new 737NGs and I dont think they have in mind finding a replacement for another 10-15 years.

Correct, but if they offered a new 737 that was compatable with the 787 and new generation 757, thenit might make the other airlines look in replacing their 757 and older "other" models which might included the 737s and MD80s.
Aiming High and going far..
 
FriendlySkies
Posts: 3540
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:57 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:11 am

Quoting Maersk737 (Reply 9):
Why does it give Boeing the upper hand?

Because Airbus is tied up in 3 major projects while Boeing is really only tied up in one. Furthermore, much of what Boeing is learning from the 787 project can be applied to the '797' just as it was applied to the 747Adv. Common sense dictates that Boeing is currently in a much better position to develop an aircraft for the 100-210 seat market than Airbus at this time.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 13471
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:44 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 11):
Because Airbus is tied up in 3 major projects while Boeing is really only tied up in one.

The 747ADV would really make it two for Boeing, and the A400 is being developed by Airbus Military (a separately managed company, so no issue with resources). The A380 is well past it's design 'hump' and of course, for Airbus, money is not a problem!  wink 

Both Airbus and Boeing will probably already have a very good idea what their respective replacements for the A320 and 737 will be like. Being first in this market (the biggest of them all) will make little difference in the long term. A significant factor in when either can produce a new plane is that of engine replacement for the CFM56 and IEA2500. Until one (but preferably two) engine manufacturers have new super-efficient engines of the right size, a new airframe is not much use.

In the shorter term, both have huge backlogs - so there's not exactly a lot of pressure. Both can take their time if they want to.

Just because WN is ready for a replacement for the 737, I don't see Boeing jumping to their tune. Where else will WN go for a more efficient plane?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
MarshalN
Posts: 1474
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:39 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:48 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 11):
Because Airbus is tied up in 3 major projects while Boeing is really only tied up in one. Furthermore, much of what Boeing is learning from the 787 project can be applied to the '797' just as it was applied to the 747Adv. Common sense dictates that Boeing is currently in a much better position to develop an aircraft for the 100-210 seat market than Airbus at this time.

The same can be said of whatever Airbus (if they choose) develops, using know how they've learned from making the A380 and A350. I don't see why this line of thinking should be applied to Boeing and not Airbus.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:59 am

Quoting KLMcedric (Thread starter):
Southwest Airlines has asked Boeing to develop a new more fuel efficient
version of the 737-700.The new airliner must contain technical developments
from the 787 dreamliner and new engines.That's what WN CEO Garry Kelly
said in the "Seattle Times".
Although the current profits are secured for the short term, due to strategic
hedging of fuel, the CEO is worried about the future if oilprices keep rising.
A more fuel-efficient airplane will be necessary in the long term.
Kelly also states that WN is very happy about the 737-700 performance, but
now that the 737NG is 8 years old the time has come for a successor.

It's a bit early to be writing off the 737. I have no doubt that Southwest wants a 787 style plane now. If Southwest is able to commit to a large enough order for Boeing to break even on it's own, then Boeing would be stupid not to chase it.

On the other hand, Boeing makes a tidy little sum off of the 737, which has trounced the A320 this year, and over the entire lifespan of the 737 versus A320.

Quoting KLMcedric (Thread starter):
NW is the single largest operator of B737 by far, their demand won't
certainly not be neglected by Boeing.That means that if Boeing makes
a move for a new single-aisler, Airbus won't have the option to wait to long
to do the same thing.

Airbus would not have a option to wait if Boeing moved. The opposite is true as well.

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 6):
Nobody could possibly know this, but I will say that Boeing would have to be extremely ignorant to deliver anything less.

There are some different technical challenges in delivering a smaller plane. Most notably engines. That being said, after years of GE, RR and PW fighting over the high end market, I am sure they will drool at the possibility of a new 2000+ engine market.

Quoting Maersk737 (Reply 9):
Why does it give Boeing the upper hand?

Simply put, Airbus will have cash flow issues with three large issues. Assuming that Airbus doesn't pull a A310, they will have to repay government aid as well as production cost for each A380. Since they sold much of the first batch of A380s at a significant loss by almost all accounts, the cash drain will be significant.

Put it another way, as it looks more and more likely that the A350 is a new plane rather then a A330 regurgitation, Airbus has to commit more and more resources to a plane design. Assuming a 2010/2011 launch versus a 2008 launch for the 787, Airbus will be at least two years behind on the design curve. Also remember that the 747ADV is pretty well spec'd out already due to work on the various 747 configurations. Boeing has more resources to throw at this problem sooner, as well as a launch customer practically in the bag right now.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 10):
Correct, but if they offered a new 737 that was compatable with the 787 and new generation 757, thenit might make the other airlines look in replacing their 757 and older "other" models which might included the 737s and MD80s.

The 787 is a replacement for both the 767 and 757. There will be no plane directly targeting only the 757.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 12):
The 747ADV would really make it two for Boeing, and the A400 is being developed by Airbus Military (a separately managed company, so no issue with resources). The A380 is well past it's design 'hump' and of course, for Airbus, money is not a problem!

The 747ADV is really not a second plane. It's a slight strech of the existing 747, plus a lot of integration work (engines et all) by Boeing's partners. The A380 may be past the design hump, but it certainly is not past the payoff hump. Airbus will have trouble finding capital for any airplane project if they have two planes (A350 and A380) which have not achieved a decent return on investment when/if Boeing announces a new plane.
 
N1120A
Posts: 26468
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 5:40 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:11 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
The 787 is a replacement for both the 767 and 757. There will be no plane directly targeting only the 757.

The 787 is a 767 and A300 replacement, not a 757 replacement.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
FlyBoy84
Posts: 329
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 4:17 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:22 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
The 787 is a replacement for both the 767 and 757. There will be no plane directly targeting only the 757.

I've read somewhere in this forum that the next narrowbody plane from Boeing will have two different wing designs and will be built in multiple variations from 120 to 220 seats. The smaller wing will be for the 737-sized plane while the larger wing will be for the 757-sized plane seating up to 220 passengers.

This could be a great thing for Boeing since it will hopefully elicit the interest of carriers that fly 737s and 757s.  Wow! Wow...a 757-sized plane with a broader cabin cross section and wider seats! What next? A 737 sized plane that doesn't sit so low to the ground?

Go 'head, WN!! Push for that 737 replacement!
 
bomber996
Posts: 421
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:21 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:33 am

Do you think this new 737/A320 replacement would yield any new aeronautical achievement not seen yet in commercial aviation. Something that's not the old fashioned tube and wing design, but maybe a flying wing, or something similar? I remember seeing Airbus' prototype models somewhere on here and some of the designs look really interesting. I really liked the A320 sized model with the V-wing on the tail. Think we might see something of this nature on this new replacement aircraft.

Peace  box 
Two biggest lies in aviation... "I'm from the FAA and I'm here to help you." & "Traffic in sight."
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:40 am

Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 4):
Will the next version of the 737 be fly-by-wire? Also, will the next 737 have a fuselage width comparable to the A320 (18 inch seat-width).

Yes, I'm sure any new airliner will be fly-by-wire.

I do expect that the B737 replacement will have a circular fuselage similar in diameter to that of the A320 with a slightly greater cabin width. Not only are people around the world getting fatter, but airlines are willing to pay for slightly wider aisles to reduce turnaround times.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
The 787 is a replacement for both the 767 and 757. There will be no plane directly targeting only the 757.

The B787 is arguably a B757-300 replacement. It is not a B757-200 replacement. I expect the next single-aisle Boeing to be a replacement for both the B737 and B757 -- probably by offering two different wings ala B787-3 vs B787-8. Ranges might be about 2500nm for the smaller-winged version and 5000+nm for the larger-winged version. The latter would further fragment the transatlantic market.
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:47 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 18):
The B787 is arguably a B757-300 replacement.

The 290 seat 787-3 is not a replacement for the 220 seat 757-300.

N
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:48 am

Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 4):
Will the next version of the 737 be fly-by-wire? Also, will the next 737 have a fuselage width comparable to the A320 (18 inch seat-width).

FBY Yoke - Don't expect a side-stick from Boeing, Standard 18.25-18.5" wide Seat (19-19.5" Center Seat) w/ 20" Aisle. Embraer and the BBD C-Series have raised the bar in cabin comfort for short haul. Possibly a T-Tail to support the engine diameter (think Twin Engine 727), or a high wing.

Roll out three models: 140, 160 and 180 seats. This would kill off all but the 100 seaters which are a non factor anymore and everything up to the widebodies.

[Edited 2005-09-13 18:50:37]
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:54 am

Quoting FlyBoy84 (Reply 16):
What next? A 737 sized plane that doesn't sit so low to the ground?

Yes, the B737NG replacement is likely to sit at about A320 height. Modern engines are much larger in diameter than those of just 10 years ago.
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 1:59 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 15):
The 787 is a 767 and A300 replacement, not a 757 replacement.

Actually, it's a 757 growth aircraft. Markets that the 757 was purchased for 20 years ago are better suited by a more comfortable 243 seat version 787-3 today - this thing is a major cash cow for major market long haul (NYC to LAX, SFO and SAN) and 2500 mile range Hub to large city flights (ORD to SFO, LAX, SAN etc...). To get to 300 in the 787-3 you need 3+3+3 seating which would suck ass and shorten your range by 1,000-1,200 miles depending on Direction. The -3 is simply a widebody domestic longhaul comfortliner. You can even return to 34" pitch dumping 20 seats (223) and do very well financially. The Direct Replacement for the aircrarft itself would be a 180 seat 737 replacement. But as a "market replacement aircraft", the 787-3 is just that. It's operational cost falls directly between the 757-200 and -300. The -8 is even with the 757-300 and the -9 will have an operational cost that falls between the 767-200 and -300 with the seating roughly that of a 767-400.
 
ANITIX87
Posts: 2958
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2005 4:52 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 2:13 am

Quoting Luisca (Reply 8):
on the A350, A380 and A400

A400? Am I missing something?

TIS
www.stellaryear.com: Canon EOS 50D, Canon EOS 5DMkII, Sigma 50mm 1.4, Canon 24-70 2.8L II, Canon 100mm 2.8L, Canon 100-4
 
WINGS
Posts: 2312
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 1:36 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 2:34 am

Quoting ANITIX87 (Reply 23):
A400? Am I missing something?

The A400M, is a Military Transport Aircraft. Which is being developed by Airbus Military SAS. This is one division of Airbus and not directly related to its civil projects.

The following link should answer your questions

http://www.eads.com/frame/lang/en/10...F00000000400004/6/03/31000036.html

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
mrcomet
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 2:43 am

Ha. Fools.

Don't you know Airbus and Leahy are working on the A360 which is based on the fuselage of the A320. It's much better than the 797. It's a little larger...it seats 280 but the per seat costs are much, much lower than the 797. Its not composite but it uses advanced technology from the A380 and despite being heavier, bigger and using older technology, it is 10% cheaper to operate. Despite having a smaller hold, it can carry more cargo. Already I hear Qatar and Emirates are thinking of ordering 200 each.  Smile
The dude abides
 
Ken777
Posts: 9061
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 2:45 am

This one is going to be more interesting than the 787 where Airbus doesn't come in with a direct competitor. I have no doubt that both A & B are working on new generation single aisle aircraft at some level. I also believe that B has learned more lessons from the 787 than A has from the 350.

In terms of WN, since the 787 was first announced I have thought that they would be the driving force behind Boeing announcing a 73E. They could probably sign a 7 - 10 year delivery contract that would justify Boeing announcing the plane. Now that would be impressive. The pressure on GE is going to be intense these days. Every time WN talks to a GE rep they are going to push for the engines.
 
N1120A
Posts: 26468
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 5:40 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 2:48 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 22):
Markets that the 757 was purchased for 20 years ago are better suited by a more comfortable 243 seat version 787-3 today - this thing is a major cash cow for major market long haul (NYC to LAX, SFO and SAN)

Given that these markets have been downgauged and not upgauged, in the past several years, and also have more LCC competition that cuts into loads one A32S/737 at a time, that argument does not work. If it was the case that these markets needed such a large aircraft, the 753 would be in UA and AA's fleets and have already sold at least 200 aircraft. Beyond that, I know you are from San Diego, but it is hardly major market in that kind of capacity sense. It gets 2 757s from AA and 2 A320s from B6. That is around 670 seats per day between 2 carriers on 4 flights. If you were to put a 250-290 seat aircraft on the route, you would kill frequency and not likely get the loads, as B6 will likely never fly anything close to that size
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
astuteman
Posts: 6346
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 2:52 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
Simply put, Airbus will have cash flow issues with three large issues. Assuming that Airbus doesn't pull a A310, they will have to repay government aid as well as production cost for each A380. Since they sold much of the first batch of A380s at a significant loss by almost all accounts, the cash drain will be significant.

I struggle a bit with this comment, seeing that the large majority of the A380 development cost must be spent by now, and yet Airbus have had no difficulty in generating significant amounts of cash in the last 3 years ($7.5Bn operating profit in the period), whereas Boeing Commercial Aircraft have only managed $2.5Bn Operating Profit in the same period (the source is both companies own accounts...).
Airbus also have upwards of 4 years of order backlog, placed in a pretty similar business environment to the deliveries being made today, and are continuing to improve their operating margin. Therefore I would expect their profits to continue to grow (for the next few years at any rate).

I would discount the A400M, as it is a separate division, and therefore about as relevant as the F15's for Singapore

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
Airbus has to commit more and more resources to a plane design.

However, this is probably a better argument. I actually see the bottleneck for Airbus as being skilled people, and I'm pretty sure the extra engineering experienced on the A380 will also have impacted the A350, which as you say, itself seems to grow as an engineering programme.

Both companies, though, have publicly said that there is absolutely no point in developing new B737/A320 until the engine manufacturers deliver the "revolution" (whatever WN demand), and as Keejse's link shows the timeframe for this is likely to be c 2012. Both companies will be tensed up waiting, I would imagine.
A
 
roseflyer
Posts: 9606
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2004 9:34 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 3:02 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 6):
Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 4):
Will the next version of the 737 be fly-by-wire? Also, will the next 737 have a fuselage width comparable to the A320 (18 inch seat-width).

Nobody could possibly know this

To be more correct, the people that know can't say because of Non Disclosure Agreements. Wink

Well Boeing has leaked that it is working on a 737NG replacement or at least studying options like shrinking the 787 down, or a new model from scratch with multiple wings. Some have given an entry date of 2013-2016 and that the plane might be just a shrink of the 787 basic design, or it could be an all new design from scratch that incorporates multiple wing designs, but there is no public information on what has been decided. The 2013-2016 date is logical since the brunt of the engineering work would be done after the 787 has entered production.

Boeing is being super quiet about a 737 replacement probably because once word is out that it is on the way 737NG orders will probably fall dramatically. Other than a few small words about it here and there, Boeing has remained quiet. Common business practice would dicatate that Boeing would want the 737NGs to sell as long as possible before announcing their replacement so as to maximize their sales. However they are working on a replacement, or at least studying different options.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
luisca
Posts: 1530
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2001 11:37 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 3:12 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
struggle a bit with this comment, seeing that the large majority of the A380 development cost must be spent by now, and yet Airbus have had no difficulty in generating significant amounts of cash in the last 3 years ($7.5Bn operating profit in the period), whereas Boeing Commercial Aircraft have only managed $2.5Bn Operating Profit in the same period (the source is both companies own accounts...).

Yes but this could all go to Hell if the EU looses in the WTO (wich is very likely)
Airbus would be forced to pay back all of the "loans" and "launch aid". This would cause a significant hit in Airbus' cashflow for years. Imagine having to repay BILLIONs of Dollars in Aid, adjusted for inflation, PLUS fines.
We probably won't have a final decision on this case for another 4-5 years, but, if a non favorable decision comes just at the time that they are finishing the A350 design, recovering their investment in the A380, etc, they could be in HUGE trouble.
If it ain't Boeing (or Embraer ;-)) I ain't Going!
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 3:24 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 19):
The 290 seat 787-3 is not a replacement for the 220 seat 757-300.

It only seats 233 in 8 across and the range at 300 seats (9 across) and typical bags and cargo is under that of a 737NG (a max of about 2,500nm). To get the 3,500nm range, 233 seats and typcial cargo is the max payload. Anything beyond that deteriorates the range. It also will cost less to operate than a -300 meaning you can carry the extra seats. So yes, for the markets the -300 was designed for it is a replacement.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 27):
Given that these markets have been downgauged and not upgauged, in the past several years, and also have more LCC competition that cuts into loads one A32S/737 at a time, that argument does not work. If it was the case that these markets needed such a large aircraft, the 753 would be in UA and AA's fleets and have already sold at least 200 aircraft. Beyond that, I know you are from San Diego, but it is hardly major market in that kind of capacity sense. It gets 2 757s from AA and 2 A320s from B6. That is around 670 seats per day between 2 carriers on 4 flights. If you were to put a 250-290 seat aircraft on the route, you would kill frequency and not likely get the loads, as B6 will likely never fly anything close to that size

Clearly you don't know San Diego's market at all. And I'm from Madison, I grew up in San Diego. San Diego has not downguaged. There has been market diversion. Airlines pulled out of JetBlue markets and upguaged to the hubs. UA has smashed Indy which will be leaving soon, October I beleive.

Delta has 3 763's, 2 762's and 1 757 to ATL, 2 757's to CVG and are running an 85% LF int he market. Or AA that runs a 757 to Boston, 4 757's to DFW and have a station LF of 82%. Or UA that runs 75's to DEN and ORD. All potential 787-3 markets.

Hardly major? 7% growth? Only single runway large hub commercial airport in the US with no potential new runway in sight (site selection is in the crapper after BRAC). If any market has potential to be flooded with 787-3's it's San Diego. Look at the list above them.

Hartsfield - Jackson Atlanta International/Delta Hub
Chicago O'Hare International/AA and UA Hub
Los Angeles International/UA and AA Hub International Gateway
Dallas/Fort Worth International/AA Hub
Denver International/UA and F9 Hub
McCarran International/HP Hub
Phoenix Sky Harbor International/HP Hub
John F Kennedy International/AA and DL Hub International Gateway
Minneapolis-St Paul International/NW Hub
George Bush Intercontinental/Houston/ CO Hub
Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County/NW Hub
Newark Liberty International/CO Hub
San Francisco International/UA Hub
Orlando International/DL Hub
Miami International/AA Hub
Seattle-Tacoma International/AS Quasi NW/UA Hub
Philadelphia International/US and WN Hub
Boston Logan International/AA and DL Hub
Charlotte/Douglas International/US Hub
La Guardia/DL Hub (New York)
Washington Dulles International/UA and Flyi Hub
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International/ DL Hub
Baltimore-Washington International/No Hub
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood/ No Hub
Honolulu International/ Hwaiian (Hello.. Hawaii)
Chicago Midway International/No Hub (WN could argue it's one)
Salt Lake City International/DL Hub
Tampa International/No Hub
San Diego International/No Hub

Not a major airport???? You must be joking. San Diego is out of Hub connection opportunties due to the time zone, the only option hub and spoke carriers will have out of there in the coming years it to upguage to meet new demand and still provide the conenction opportunites. This is why they get their asses handed to them in the morning and the place is damn near empty in the late afternoon/early evening. A new airport would change that in terms of additional morning flights backfilled with some new point to point (which may also happen without a move), but a new airport just doesn't look like it will happen meaning larger mainline aircraft and a max out of WN frequencies. Even they will have problems there in the future.

[Edited 2005-09-13 20:34:51]
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 3:29 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
I struggle a bit with this comment, seeing that the large majority of the A380 development cost must be spent by now, and yet Airbus have had no difficulty in generating significant amounts of cash in the last 3 years ($7.5Bn operating profit in the period), whereas Boeing Commercial Aircraft have only managed $2.5Bn Operating Profit in the same period (the source is both companies own accounts...).

Take a look at the documented agrements for state aid. The aid has to be repaid on a plane by plane basis. In this way, if Airbus fails to sell planes, they don't have to repay that aid. However, the repayment amount is the same, which means that Airbus takes just as big a loss due to government aid on the first one as they do 20 in. Since Airbus has a negative margin already due to deep launch discounts, Airbus effectivly must pay out of their own pocket for each plane that leaves.

Also bear in mind that Airbus has a signficant capital investment for the development of the A380. That capital must be repaid.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 13471
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 3:34 am

Quoting Luisca (Reply 30):
Yes but this could all go to Hell if the EU looses in the WTO (wich is very likely)
Airbus would be forced to pay back all of the "loans" and "launch aid".

Wrong!

If, and it's a big one, the EU loses at the WTO, it will just ignore the WTO ruling in exactly the same way the US ignores multiple WTO rulings that have gone against it.  wink 
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
gearup
Posts: 514
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2000 9:23 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 3:37 am

Quoting Luisca (Reply 30):
Yes but this could all go to Hell if the EU looses in the WTO (wich is very likely)

Hmmm! Don't count on it. There will be no winner takes all and loser takes the fall in this competition. Of course the EU could simply ignore any unfavourable WTO decision just as the US has done with NAFTA decisions. Either way, totally forget any notion of EU/EADS taking a knockout blow from anyone, it's not going to happen!

GU  twocents 
I have no memory of this place.
 
luisca
Posts: 1530
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2001 11:37 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:06 am

Quoting Gearup (Reply 34):
Of course the EU could simply ignore any unfavourable WTO decision just as the US has done with NAFTA decisions. Either way, totally forget any notion of EU/EADS taking a knockout blow from anyone, it's not going to happen!

Yes but then the US can put tariffs on Airbus Products. Imagine a 40% tax on all airbus products coming in to the US, no US airline would buy it. And the US is the single largest Aviation Market in the world
If it ain't Boeing (or Embraer ;-)) I ain't Going!
 
RedChili
Posts: 1440
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:23 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:11 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 12):
Being first in this market (the biggest of them all) will make little difference in the long term.

I think you're quite right. I think there are four important things that many people tend to forget:

1. Some customers are very loyal to their plane maker. E.g. Ryanair will not change to Airbus even if Airbus makes an A320NG before Boeing makes a 737NNG.

2. The NG planes will anyway be sold during 15 or 20 years. Even if B would be three years ahead of A, that would mean very little in the big picture.

3. If one of the makers will launch their NG three years before the other company, that only means that the second maker will have three more years of technological advances to make a better plane than the first company.

4. The 737 and A320 production is anyway going at top capacity.

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 11):
Because Airbus is tied up in 3 major projects while Boeing is really only tied up in one.

As several people have noted, the you could also say that A is only tied up in the A350 now, while B is tied up in the 787 and 747Adv.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
If Southwest is able to commit to a large enough order for Boeing to break even on it's own, then Boeing would be stupid not to chase it.

I'm quite sure that Boeing could find large launch customers to launch new versions of the 737 every fifth year. But it would still be stupid to launch a new version so soon.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
Airbus would not have a option to wait if Boeing moved. The opposite is true as well.

See my replies above. It's equally important for both of them not to launch too soon, because launching too soon will give the competitor the advantage of using three or four more years of technological advances to make a much better airplane. If you launch too soon, you could win in the short run, but you would lose in the long run.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
as well as a launch customer practically in the bag right now.

I'm quite sure that both A and B have at least 20 very willing launch customers just waiting for both of them to launch their NG planes.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
The 747ADV is really not a second plane. It's a slight strech of the existing 747, plus a lot of integration work (engines et all) by Boeing's partners.

In a way, you could say that this is true. But you could also say that the A350 is not a new plane but a slight improvement of the existing A330.

But look at what happened when A made too few improvements on the A350: Only Air Europa ordered any, forcing A into developing an airplane which is much more "new" than what they first had in mind. The same thing could happen for B. If they advertise the 747Adv to potential customers as "not really a new plane," they could very well choose to go for the A380 instead, actually forcing B to do the same as A did with the A350.

Quoting Luisca (Reply 30):
Airbus would be forced to pay back all of the "loans" and "launch aid". This would cause a significant hit in Airbus' cashflow for years.

Firstly, you need to realize that it will take years before the WTO makes a final decision in this matter.

Secondly, even if they make a decision which is very bad for Airbus, this will only be after they have actually paid back much of the launch aid for the A380. And even if the WTO would demand that Airbus pay back the interest rates they saved by getting government loans, they could take up a bank loan to do it without losing too much money.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
BCAInfoSys
Posts: 2617
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 11:09 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:15 am

Guys.. I posted some very relevant information about this last week.

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eral_aviation/read.main/2314185/6/

Here's the text of it:

Quoting BCAInfoSys (Reply 6):
It's already being worked on. Boeing is currently defining the product (past concept, into product definition), and starting the engineering on Y1, the eventual 737 replacement. When I asked Alan Mulally about it, he was a little hesitant to answer. But he did tell me that the new family will have 2-3 different cross sections (fuselage widths), and will have a pax range from 70 - 225 seats.

That means you are going to have ONE COMPLETE FAMILY with cockpit commonality, majority common parts, etc. This family is going to cover everything from the RJ range all the way up to 752 capacity! Not to mention massive weight savings and evolutionary aerodynamic increases due to the extensive use of carbon fiber composites on this new a/c.

It is going to be one hell of a family to beat!  bigthumbsup 

Additionally, when I asked when the 737-replacement would go into service (i.e. production), he said the "official" date is 2012. He emphasized the word official, which led me to believe that they're targetting 2011 or maybe something a little more ambitious.

So to recap: the 737-replacement is coming, and coming much quicker then Airbus expects. They will have a hard time coming up with a full a/c family to compete with this in 6-7 years. We're talking about a family that will encompass all single-aisle aircraft needs.

If you have any question, hit me with them. I might not know the answer, but I might be able to give us an idea from my conversation with Mulally.

Steve
Militant Agnostic - I don't know and you don't either.
 
A350
Posts: 1012
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:40 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:16 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 12):
Just because WN is ready for a replacement for the 737, I don't see Boeing jumping to their tune. Where else will WN go for a more efficient plane?

What about the Bombardier C-series? I know it's a bit smaller, but it's a new plane based on new technology and it's not a shrink as the A319 (Please DON'T discuss if the 73G is a shrink Wink ).

Concerning the "Who comes first with a 737/A320 replacement - A or B" I wonder if the first won't have a disadvantage at the end of the day since the second can tailor his plane to outperform the first one. Any thoughts?

A350
 
PHXinterrupted
Posts: 461
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 6:41 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:17 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 33):
Quoting Luisca (Reply 30):
Yes but this could all go to Hell if the EU looses in the WTO (wich is very likely)
Airbus would be forced to pay back all of the "loans" and "launch aid".

Wrong!

If, and it's a big one, the EU loses at the WTO, it will just ignore the WTO ruling in exactly the same way the US ignores multiple WTO rulings that have gone against it.

Oh yeah, as if the EU isn't above twisting or ignoring WTO rulings. Please keep paying your taxes to prop up Airbus, thanks. lol
Keepin' it real.
 
pillowtester
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 9:44 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:19 am

Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 4):
Will the next version of the 737 be fly-by-wire? Also, will the next 737 have a fuselage width comparable to the A320 (18 inch seat-width).

I doubt a single aisle aircraft from Boeing that doesn't share the same fuselage width as the 737 will be called a "737"...

It wouldnt be a very simple design procedure to "widen" the entire aircraft fuselage. If it is wider, it would probably have so many other significan changes as to be called "797" or something.
...said Dan jubilantly.
 
Scorpio
Posts: 4797
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2001 3:48 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:45 am

Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 39):
Oh yeah, as if the EU isn't above twisting or ignoring WTO rulings. Please keep paying your taxes to prop up Airbus, thanks. lol

And yet another well-informed and extremely useful post from phx...  Yeah sure

As for the 'keep paying taxes bla bla bla' comment: you made that a few days ago as well, and someone gave you the facts about all of that, to show you just how full of it you were. But since you're not in the least bit interested in facts (as that would mean you'd have to stop your ignorant oneliner responses), you quite simply chose to ignore them. So... you.
 
Doona
Posts: 3382
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 9:43 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:49 am

If this becomes the 797, what's gonna be next? 7107?

Cheers
Mats
Sure, we're concerned for our lives. Just not as concerned as saving 9 bucks on a roundtrip to Ft. Myers.
 
astuteman
Posts: 6346
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:14 am

Quoting Luisca (Reply 30):
Yes but this could all go to Hell if the EU looses in the WTO (wich is very likely)
Airbus would be forced to pay back all of the "loans" and "launch aid". This would cause a significant hit in Airbus' cashflow for years. Imagine having to repay BILLIONs of Dollars in Aid, adjusted for inflation, PLUS fines.

Airbus is ALREADY paying back these loans. Whitehatter has posted the information regularly straight from Treasury reports - A300 loans 98% repaid, A320 loans already 100% repaid. The business cases for A350 and A380 will have to reflect the fact that the loans have to be repaid. The issue for Airbus if it "loses" at the WTO will be repaying the balance between interest at a preferential interest rate, and market rates of the time (unless of course it doesn't sell any aircraft). I wouldn't hang your hat on this busting Airbus.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 36):
Secondly, even if they make a decision which is very bad for Airbus, this will only be after they have actually paid back much of the launch aid for the A380. And even if the WTO would demand that Airbus pay back the interest rates they saved by getting government loans, they could take up a bank loan to do it without losing too much money.

Thanks RedChilli - you said it better than me.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 32):
Since Airbus has a negative margin already due to deep launch discounts, Airbus effectivly must pay out of their own pocket for each plane that leaves.

If this gets written often enough it will become de-facto truth!
Whatever launch discounts Airbus is offering on launched products, it's being more than offset by profits from established lines - JUST AS IT IS FOR BOEING! Airbus's operating margin of +9.5% for 2004 includes any aircraft sold at a discounted price. (I'll put the plus sign in just in case...)

Whatever discounts Airbus (or Boeing) offers launch customers for A380, A350, 787, 747ADV, must have to support the business plan signed up to by the respective Boards (and which will no doubt anticipate significant discounts for the first frames off the line, as it is normal practice!).

Anybody seriously think Airbus is going to spend $12Bn or whatever developing the A380, and then sell the first 150 at a total of $8Bn below COST? Ridiculous. The shareholders would close the programme down first!
Particularly as (back on topic) the A320 replacement HAS to be funded, whatever happens.

Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 39):
Please keep paying your taxes to prop up Airbus, thanks. lol

Some people on here need to get a life!
 
DAYflyer
Posts: 3546
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:22 am

If WN is pushing for this, it is very interesting indeed; and yes it may well be the start of something at Boeing. An order of 100 firm and 450 options is not easy to walk away from. Can you immagine the headlines?? WOW.
One Nation Under God
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:44 am

Quoting BCAInfoSys (Reply 37):
. This family is going to cover everything from the RJ range all the way up to 752 capacity! Not to mention massive weight savings and evolutionary aerodynamic increases due to the extensive use of carbon fiber composites on this new a/c.

That sounds like:

70,80,90 Seaters (2+2) Say 2017
100,120,140 (2+3) Say 2015
140,160,180 (3+3) Say 2012
777 Replacement 2020
 
RedChili
Posts: 1440
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:23 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:01 am

Quoting BCAInfoSys (Reply 37):
But he did tell me that the new family will have 2-3 different cross sections (fuselage widths), and will have a pax range from 70 - 225 seats.

Very, very interesting! My guess is that, when launching such a family, that Boeing will try to make them sound like they are totally new airplanes. What about calling them 808 and 818 (and 828 if they are at 3 different cross sections)? "The 808/818/828 family of single-aisle airplanes from Boeing."

Quoting BCAInfoSys (Reply 37):
They will have a hard time coming up with a full a/c family to compete with this in 6-7 years.

Maybe. But at the same time, all airlines will not be ready nor able to order airplanes for that exact year when the first new Boeings will be delivered anyway. So even if Airbus needs another three years to come up with a similar or better family, they won't lose many customers that way.

Quoting A350 (Reply 38):
Concerning the "Who comes first with a 737/A320 replacement - A or B" I wonder if the first won't have a disadvantage at the end of the day since the second can tailor his plane to outperform the first one. Any thoughts?

Exactly what I've been trying to say in a couple of posts here.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 44):
An order of 100 firm and 450 options is not easy to walk away from.

I'm quite sure that both Boeing and Airbus will see such mega-orders when they develop their new single aisle airplanes.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:06 am

Quoting A350 (Reply 38):
Concerning the "Who comes first with a 737/A320 replacement - A or B" I wonder if the first won't have a disadvantage at the end of the day since the second can tailor his plane to outperform the first one. Any thoughts?

This is why there will be zero announcement until after the 787 has flown and been proven to perform as anticipated.
 
LCH
Posts: 47
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:19 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:22 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 46):
Very, very interesting! My guess is that, when launching such a family, that Boeing will try to make them sound like they are totally new airplanes. What about calling them 808 and 818 (and 828 if they are at 3 different cross sections)? "The 808/818/828 family of single-aisle airplanes from Boeing."

Or, as the 787 is already a part of that new family of Boeings, how about the 181, 282, 383, 484, 585, 686, 787, 888 (The Chinese are gonna HAVE to buy that one!) and 989? That would make the 787 an elegant transition form the old 7x7to the hypothetic new x8x series. As for the 787 being the first out seeming strange, they could make the name reflect the size, i.e. reserving 888 and 989 for the 777 and 747 replacements, and using the lower number for the smaller planes.

[Edited 2005-09-13 23:51:07]
 
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1605
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: WN Pushes Boeing To Develop New 737-700

Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:23 am

I seriously doubt that Boeing would get into the 70 - 90 seat RJ market. But if Mulally is saying that the new narrowbody will have two different fuselage widths, wouldn't it make that two diffrent aircraft?
That would actually make more sense for Boeing to go into narrower 2+3 cross section - it seems like they are learning their lessons from the 737-600 mistake, as that development would be way more efficient than shrunk 3+3 fuselage.

So if Mullaly is talking about two fuselage widths, we could see something like one model with 2+3 cross-section, covering 100 - 130 seat range with two fuselage lenghts, and the other model with 3+3 cross-section covering 160 - 220 seat range with three fuselage lenghts, with the longest one being the direct replacement for 757-200.
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.