aa777jr
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Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:33 am

Will DL and NW filing for Chp 11 protection help or hurt AA and CO?

Curious to hear all your comments.
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
AirRyan
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:37 am

It's most likely not going to severely negatively affect either but the odds are that it won't be doing them any favors, either.
 
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Btriple7
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:38 am

Unless DL or NW cutback routes significantly, I don't think AA or CO will see much benefit.

Regards,
Btriple7
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UnitedTristar
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:39 am

Years ago when UA first filed for bankruptcy they forecasted that the new UA would be soo lean that their competitors would be forced to file to keep up with their cost structures. Now look at them. I laughed when the other carriers pushed for bills preventing airlines from doing in chapter 11 what UA did because they would be shooting them selves in the foot. Now look. They are all running to declare before the laws they pushed for take effect! Funny how things bite you in the butt. Its all about karma. I think these carriers will hurt from their competitors leaner costs. However if they are able to convince their creditors that they should renegotiate with out bankruptcy they will be in better shape. Otherwise they will be just in trouble when the new leaner UA NW and DL.


-m



[Edited 2005-09-15 00:41:20]
 
aa777jr
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:40 am

How could it hurt AA and CO?

How could it help them?

I sure hope they both can stay strong and making profits.


Regards.
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:43 am

It can hurt AA/CO, seeing that being under Chapter 11 allows airlines to take certain cost cutting approaches that would otherwise not be allowed.

At the same time, Chapter 11 means lost consumer confidence, which could lead travelers to AA and CO, and potential fleet, capacity, and route cuts, which could also help AA/CO.

In the end, they pretty much cancel each other out. Chapter 7 is the situation in which AA/CO stand to benefit, and that isn't happening anytime soon.
a.
 
commavia
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:48 am

I'm with MAH. In the end, I doubt that DL's and NW's bankruptcy will have much of an impact on AA or CO at all. As UnitedTristar said, there were tons of predictions when UA entered back in December 2002 that AA and others would be forced to file in order to remain competitive with what would be UA's dramatically reduced costs. Now, going on three years later, UA is still in bankruptcy and about to exit -- and their costs are only going to be slightly lower than AA's. And yet, in that same time, AA has managed to avoid bankruptcy, reduce its costs almost as much, if not as much, maintained at least some semblance of positive management-labor relations and employee morale (relative, of course, to other airlines) and dramatically simplified their operations. For AA and CO -- even considering that three of their legacy competitors are now in bankruptcy -- filing would not, IMO, be a winning proposition. Both companies have managed to reduce their costs almost as much -- if not as much -- as their counterparts in bankruptcy, without the inefficiency and pain of the bankruptcy process.
 
PSA53
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:48 am

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 1):
It's most likely not going to severely negatively affect either but the odds are that it won't be doing them any favors, either.

Well,look at Wall Street@3:30PST-

During/ After Market
AMR -.49 -.53
NWAC +.30 -1.03
DAL -.07 +.02
AWA -.11 +.13
UALAQ.OB +.13 .0
CAL -.45 -.11

[Edited 2005-09-15 00:56:12]
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OPNLguy
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:54 am

Anyone know what AA and CO's debt loads are?
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777Purser
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:54 am

Its going to be all about the pensions in the beginning...it is indeed a scary picture...
 
aa777jr
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:55 am

Quoting 777PURSER (Reply 9):
Its going to be all about the pensions in the beginning...it is indeed a scary picture...

NW and DL, correct?
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
sebring
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:55 am

Notwithstanding what anyone thinks, the impact will depend on what it takes DL and NW to each come up with a restructuring plan that creditors and new equity can buy into. That means taking companies that are now losing millions of dollars a day into companies that can make, on average, $1 million a day or more under current conditions. I would submit that this cannot be achieved solely by gouging labor. The used aircraft market, especially for international-capable, decent widebodies, is exceptionally tight. Are lessors going to be as pliant as they were through the first half of UA's three-year bankruptcy stint? I think not. So while a restructured NW and DL would have lower costs, I don't see how they get there with their current staff size and fleet size. If NW is going to keep its Pacific franchise, which it must, and if DL is going to keep its ATL (strong southeast) franchise, what's in play? Memphis? Cincinnati? Less Detroit or less Minneapolis?
 
aa777jr
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 8:02 am

Quoting Sebring (Reply 11):
DL and NW to each come up with a restructuring plan

Jeez...UA is approaching three years. Any bets on DL and NW?

Quoting Sebring (Reply 11):
Pacific franchise

They only have what everyone else already has and more. ATL is their goldmine.

Quoting Sebring (Reply 11):
what's in play? Memphis? Cincinnati? Less Detroit or less Minneapolis?

DL will lose SLC to WN. odds?
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
777Purser
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 8:07 am

Quoting Aa777jr (Reply 10):
NW and DL, correct?

Right, and as soon as they dump their pensions we will all hear from management about the urgency to stay competitive...
 
incitatus
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:25 am

Companies that go into Ch 11 may never come out, or may come out as very different entities. It's damage to confidence - Delta stands to lose the most in Atlanta where Air Tran may start being regarded in equal terms by big spenders in air travel. I think it's awful to their local market there.

Continental may have to most to benefit in the markets from New York to continental Europe. With the strategy of every single large airline being international expansion, there isn't room for everybody to be a winner. Continental will do better and Delta's expansion will be modest.

American already got the big bang from Delta leaving Dallas, any further gain will be spread thin. Time for AA to augment the schedule between ATL and New York? I'd get a good laugh if they announced an LGA-ATL shuttle with hourly departures tomorrow. Business is war played in slow motion. Big grin
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comorin
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:28 am

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 8):
Anyone know what AA and CO's debt loads are?

AA has Assets of $28.8B and Liabilities (Total Debt) of $29.4B
CO has Assets of $10.5B and Liabilities (Total Debt) of $10.3B

Hope this helps.
 
CO757bos2iah
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:42 am

From todays Houston Chronicle :


AIRLINES
Continental plans to sell securities
Continental Airlines said Tuesday it plans to sell as much as $1 billion in debt securities.

Continental intends to use the proceeds for "general corporate purposes," which may include repayment of debt, pension obligations and working capital requirements, the Houston-based airline said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Continental said Friday it will have a "significant" loss this year because of higher jet fuel costs.

While it didn't say they would pay some of the pension obligations it makes mention ,that we may.. We'll see.
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Boeing7E7
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:56 am

Quoting Aa777jr (Reply 12):
DL will lose SLC to WN. odds?

Slim and none. Recent changes at SLC have made it profitable and an injection of 70 seaters through scope clause modifications will make it even more profitable.
 
aa777223er
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 3:15 pm

This link covers this topic pretty well:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuot...05-09-15_00-16-47_n14682380_newsml

Regards,

AA777223ER
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masseybrown
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RE: Chp 11's Affect On AA And CO?

Thu Sep 15, 2005 3:28 pm

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 17):
Recent changes at SLC have made it profitable and an injection of 70 seaters through scope clause modifications will make it even more profitable.

You say SLC is profitable. In another thread, people swear that CVG is profitable. In other threads, the South American routes are called money machines.

The truth is more likely that all the routes are losers; hence, bankruptcy.