flydl2atl
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Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:46 am

In light of the recent bankruptcy filings by DL and NW, it seems like a good time to speculate on a possible merger. The fact that they both filed on the same day seems more than coincidental.

One of the biggest obstacles to overcome is their huge differences in fleets. Delta has:

Type Number (Owned / Leased) Orders/Options

737-200 6/34
737-300 0/21
737-800 71/0 51/60
757-200 77/44
767-200 14/0
767-300 4/24
767-300ER 50/9 0/10
767-400ER 21/0 0/21
777-200 8/0 5/20
MD-11 0/3
MD-88 63/57
MD-90 16/0
FRJ-328 0/30
ATR-72 4/8
CRJ 115/128 19/114
CRJ-700 62/0 0/110

Total: 869 Planes

Northwest has:

A319 62/12 7/0
A320 43/35 2/0
A330-200 7/0 5/0
A330-300 10/0 10/0

787 0/0 18/0
757-200 32/24
757-300 16/0
747-200 3/2
747-400 4/12
DC9 141/4
DC10 13/7
RJ85 10/25
CRJ 0/137 17/0
SAAB 0/49

Total: 652


Delta's CEO, Jerry Grinsein, has talked of the need for fleet simplification. He's stated that the ideally Delta would just have two planes - one for short-haul and one for long haul. I interpreted this to mean the 737 and the 787. If a merger were to take place between NW and Delta it would likely take a few years or more to fully integrate the companies. However, right off the bat they could probably consolidate their route structures enough to immidiately eliminate the MD88/90, DC-9, or A319/320. By the end of three years, I'm sure they could get down to 4-5 different aircraft types.

It seems that labor issues would be the biggest hurdle. With Delta being mostly non-union and NWA being mostly union it might be difficult to overcome this. Anybody have any ideas?

Also with the America West/US Air...America West is sort of buying USAir...i.e the new mgmt will come more from AmericaWest than USAir. In the case of DL/NW would we be more likely to see DL mgmt running the show or NW mgmt running the show (or GE mgmt running the show  Smile )?
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:49 am

Bet on system smoothing and fleet simplifcation, not on a merger.
 
F27XXX
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:59 am

Its a ridiculous speculation.

The only thing they have in common at all is the 757 (and a cpl MD80s at NW). Literally everything else is different!

Besides what would they need with hubs so close in CVG, DWA Transworld Airlines (USA)">TW and MSP
and then again in ATL and MEM? Remember when AA had DFW, BNA and RDU ? WHich one is still with us? And US having CLT BWI PHL PIT and DAY after the PI merge?

This is dumb. Besides - - Northwest get rid of a DC9 !??! Never in a million years (and thats prob not too far frm the truth!)

Just stirrin the pot a little is all .. in reality theyre both great airlines with great people working very hard and they both deserve to survive on their own!! We've already lost so many of the classics (PA,EA,TW, WA) .. no more!

OK tomorrow i'll switch to decaf .. i'm done ranting now!  gnasher 

Tony
I'M BAAAAAAAACK!
 
flydl2atl
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:04 pm

Quoting F27XXX (Reply 2):
Besides what would they need with hubs so close in CVG, DWA Transworld Airlines (USA)">TW and MSP
and then again in ATL and MEM? Remember when AA had DFW, BNA and RDU ? WHich one is still with us? And US having CLT BWI PHL PIT and DAY after the PI merge?

Well, the most logical thing to do would be to completely close the Memphis hub. Same goes for CVG....Delta is already talking about downsizing it now. There would be cost saving in being able to close these hubs and rolling them into ATL and MSP/DTW.
 
comorin
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:06 pm

Delta's liabilities - $27B
NW liabilities - $17B

Combined Liabilities - $44B
Combined Net Worth -MINUS $ 8.3B


These numbers won't go away significantly even with Ch11, and are the problem with DL/NW merging.

I would think an acquisition for $1, by another airline, severely pruned, is more likely.
 
SATL382G
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:07 pm

Quoting F27XXX (Reply 2):
The only thing they have in common at all is the 757 (and a cpl MD80s at NW).

NWs Mad Dogs have been gone for sometime now. Scrapped I believe.
"There’s nothing quite as exhilarating as being shot at and missed" --Winston Churchill
 
LUVRSW
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:11 pm

Is XJ and 9E safe in any reorginization?
 
Kohflot
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:24 pm

We were chatting about this possibility earlier.. and as I speculated, I think there would be one big loser in any NW/DL merger - ATL.

The ATL hub's strengths right now are north-south connections along the east coast, connecting the west with the south, and the international flights. But the competitive landscape has changed north-south flying (particularly Florida) and transcons significantly.. Plus, most of the ATL European flights could be moved to JFK or DTW.. the Asian flights to MSP or SEA. This would make for quicker travel times for most. Not to mention it'd shorten most transoceanic segment lengths..

But the biggest reason to downsize ATL? It's insane to assume you can run over 1,000 flights a day consistently from one airport. One little thunderstorm and you've got a TON of missed connections....

As IAH is to CO, so should ATL be to DL/NW..
Ask why..
 
flydl2atl
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:36 pm

Quoting Kohflot (Reply 7):
But the biggest reason to downsize ATL? It's insane to assume you can run over 1,000 flights a day consistently from one airport. One little thunderstorm and you've got a TON of missed connections....

I totatlly agree on this. On a good weather day, Atlanta works fine. On a bad weather day, it's an absolute mess. I kind of think that DL's goal in strengthening ATL was to keep AirTran at bay. This move has forced AirTran to try and expand elsewhere.
 
797
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:42 pm

I don't think they are going to merge, however, this could be more than a coincidence. Let's see what happens.

PS. Imagine a DL 744!

Greetings!
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commavia
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:56 pm

A few of my thoughts ...

Network

If you just laid the Delta route map on top of the Northwest route map, and don’t look at anything else but this new combined route map, this merger makes pretty good sense. The networks – particularly the international networks – are highly complimentary.

Delta is very strong across the Atlantic, has a relatively strong presence in Central America and the Caribbean, and a minimal but legitimate presence in South America, whereas Northwest’s network is heavily focused on Asia. Domestically, the network is a bit less complimentary, and some of the hubs are a bit redundant, but that could be easily consolidated. Memphis would likely give way to Atlanta, as it serves no real network purpose not satisfied by Atlanta, and Cincinnati would likely be replaced by Detroit, which serves a larger O&D network and has more modern facilities.

Ultimately, I could definitely foresee a combined Delta-Northwest network with four continental U.S. hubs – in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis and Salt Lake City – plus major U.S. focus cities in New York JFK, New York LaGuardia and Orlando. Internationally, Amsterdam would maintain its focus for the U.S.-Europe network, providing onward connections to India, and Tokyo would remain the primary Asian connecting hub.

Fleet

The fleet integration of any Delta-Northwest merger would make the network synergies look pretty insignificant. Northwest’s and Delta’s fleets are almost completely incompatible.

Delta’s predominantly Boeing fleet (with some McDonnell Douglas MD80s and MD90s mixed in) doesn’t exactly “blend” with Northwest’s almost completely Airbus fleet (with many Douglas DC9s). Delta’s wide bodies are all Boeing – mostly 767s, and a few 777s – while Northwest operates a varied mix of Boeing 747s, 787s (soon enough), McDonnell Douglas DC10s, and Airbus A330s.

Any integrated airline would perhaps choose to focus on either Airbus or Boeing for its short haul network – I’m guessing it would be Airbus A319/A320/A321 – and either Airbus or Boeing for its long haul network – I’m guessing Boeing 747/767/777/787.
 
stlgph
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 2:51 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 10):
Cincinnati would likely be replaced by Detroit, which serves a larger O&D network and has more modern facilities.

Have you been to Cincinnati???!?!?!?!?!?!??!!!!!!!?!??!

Quoting Commavia (Reply 10):
Ultimately, I could definitely foresee a combined Delta-Northwest network with four continental U.S. hubs – in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis and Salt Lake City – plus major U.S. focus cities in New York JFK, New York LaGuardia and Orlando

Yes, let's keep our extra capacity problems afloat by having too many hubs and focus cities.

Quoting Kohflot (Reply 7):
Plus, most of the ATL European flights could be moved to JFK or DTW.. the Asian flights to MSP or SEA. This would make for quicker travel times for most. Not to mention it'd shorten most transoceanic segment lengths..

But the biggest reason to downsize ATL? It's insane to assume you can run over 1,000 flights a day consistently from one airport. One little thunderstorm and you've got a TON of missed connections....

You're talking about weather problems in Atlanta but want to move European operations to Detroit?!
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PVD757
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:07 pm

A NW and DL merger makes no sense at all. Financially, aircraft commonality, hub airports - it would be an absolute disaster. Besides who the heck would back the billions needed to pull it off. I still can't believe UA and HP/US have gotten as much money as they have despite the industries terrible condition!
 
hjulicher
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:43 pm

Quoting STLGph (Reply 11):
You're talking about weather problems in Atlanta but want to move European operations to Detroit?!

Detroit doesn't experience many weather delays despite contrary belief. DTW may be located in a cold climate, but the average amount of snow we have in one winter is far less than is believed. We are not affected by lake affect snow either. In the past, there have been some major weather impacts, usually one per year, but it's not a daily event during the summer around 4pm. Also DTW's is designed to be efficient and convenient. It has been discussed that the city's location is not the best for transatlantic flights, but nor does CVG's. With the combined efforts of DL and NW, JFK could become a slightly different hub as well. With more gate space, daily flights from all the major markets could fly to JFK and several international flights, but it wouldn't be the backbone to the domestic or international route structure.

DTW does have a bigger O&D market (5.7 million in the metropolitan area, and then include Toledo and we're almost at 7million), but if the merger were to become a possibility, I would place money that CVG would become at least a focus city, or a minimized hub. (The facilities are pretty modern and Proctor and Gamble does need an airport). I could see many of international flights from CVG move to DTW, and probably many of the regional ones too, but I wouldn't rule out the mainline destinations. If the two were to merge, you would probably still see daily departures from each airport to every major destination in the US.

Hubs after the merger: ATL, JFK, DTW, MSP, SLC,
Focus cities: CVG, IND, MKE, SEA, (MEM?), (DFW?)
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N328KF
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:45 pm

Why would merging two airlines in this vein help?
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
redflyer
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:48 pm

An excerpt from this morning's Wall Street Journal:

"Even before the virtually simultaneous bankruptcy filings by Delta and Northwest, some investors speculated that the two carriers could wind up merging with the help of a private-equity firm. Their route networks have little overlap, and Delta's dominance on trans-Atlantic flights would complement Northwest's strength in Asia. Delta and Northwest officials declined to comment."
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NWDC10
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:51 am

As i mentioned earlier, i believe both carriers "will" merge. Robert NWDC10
 
QuestAir
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:02 am

IF these two airlines were to megre, under whose name would they fly? We have two VERY historic airlines - both go back to the twenties. HP's been around since the 80s, and the US Airways moniker is much more recent.

Or would a DL/NW combo come up with a brand new name altogether?
'Do we carry rich people on our flights? Yes, I flew on one this morning and I�m very rich.' - Michael O'Leary
 
ARGinLON
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:08 am

Although they are many differences between both carriers (fleet, labor issues, etc) everybody agrees that consolidation is the only way out in the U.S. right now.

Perhaps CH11 is a good step forward for this two? Time will say
 
PVD757
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:11 am

Oh wait, they both have Pratt powered 757-200's. That's enough fleet commonality for me - it's a done deal!!!

seriously though - the combined airline would have 177 P&W 752's....

...pretty impressive!

after that it just absolutely ugly:

NW = D9S/319/320 narrow bodies
330/747 wide bodies

DL = 732/733/738/M88/M90 narrow bodies
763/764/777 wide bodies

MEM would need to bow to ATL
SLC would need to bow to MSP
CVG would need to bow to DTW

This would crush too many communities making federal approval difficult to say the least.
 
AirRyan
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:18 am

I've seen some analysts speak of this and combined with their opinions and that of my own, one thing more likely than any other is NW management will not succumb to even DL's - so if there is a merger DL would be bye-bye and the new airline would still be run by NW management in Eagan, Minnesota.

DL has a lot more debt than NW does and while I hope both climb out of this mess if I had to bet on just one NW would have my money.
 
incitatus
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:07 am

Quoting STLGph (Reply 11):
Have you been to Cincinnati???!?!?!?!?!?!??!!!!!!!?!??!

The fact that most people would answer NO to that question should be some food for thought!

Take MEM and CVG away and there is a strong common network. The hardest part of an eventual merger would be to prune the fleet - they would have to spend several years with a mixed fleet. That could be mitigated by segregating types by hub.

Unfair to all this is CO, a well managed and prudent company, would be the loser. But who said business got to be fair?
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BOSSAN
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:19 am

It's possible to simplify operations without eliminating all fleet types but one. American, in particular, has been reducing the number of types that visit each of their hubs to simplify their spare parts planning and crew domicile placement.

Starting out as different companies, Delta and Northwest already have such a separation between their hubs. If they were to merge, I would not see them launching a large MD-88 operation out of Minneapolis to complement their DC-9 fleet, nor fly lots of DC-9s out of Atlanta. Future deliveries of 737-800s, A319/20s, A330s and 787s would allow them to retire DC-9s, MD-80s, 757s, 767s and DC-10s over time, going down to a smaller number of aircraft types. In future decades they could make an A vs B choice.

In addition, in bankruptcy the airlines can reject leases and park the remainder of small and old aircraft types: Delta's 737-200s, 737-300s, 767-300 non-ERs (overcapacity for domestic use now, not enough range for transatlantic), and MD-11s (ACA/FlyI is stuck with the FRJs) are largely leased, as are Northwest's Avro RJs. Delta's MD-90s and ATRs and Northwest's 747-200s are such small subfleets that they're likely to be parked as well. The DC-10s would likely continue flying for another year until enough A330s arrive, though they are now being parked even faster than planned. Overall capacity would be reduced by about 60 narrowbodies and 30 widebodies, but some of those are already parked in the desert.

The remaining aircraft each have niches: the 747-400 and 777-200 have long range and cargo uplift for trunk routes to the Tokyo hub, the 767s and A330s run European and thinner Asian routes. The 757s (thankfully all with P&W engines) can connect the hubs and do high-volume domestic runs as well as continuing to joust with jetBlue, with the A319/20s, 737-800s and MD-88s and DC-9s running medium-size spokes and the CRJs and Saabs running the regional routes. Moreover, having more types could save certain routes: I'd speculate that a combined Delta/Northwest might be able to run 2 JFK-NRT rotations with 3 777s, while 747s take over LAX-NRT.

Over a decade, the airline could reduce its own fleet via attrition to: 747-400, 777-200, A330-200 and -300, 787-3 and -8, 757-200 and -300, A319/20, 737-800, CRJ-100, -200 and -700, and one turboprop type, with each hub only operating some of those types -- likely one of A319/20 and 737-800 and one of A330 and 787 out of each hub, 747 and 777s only sent to and from Tokyo, and so forth. There are a couple of size gaps in between that could be filled, perhaps by contract EMB-170s and 190s that provide business class seats in the 70-125 seat gap and 737-900Xes in the 150-250 seat gap if the 757s are retired, but adjustments in frequency should allow for fewer larger subfleets to carry the passengers on each route.

In hub rationalization, CVG and MEM could be drawn down to focus cities with closer to 50% O&D, with RJs replacing some of the lost capacity out of the remaining hubs with the 737-200, 737-300 and RJ85 retirements. That would leave ATL, DTW, MSP and SLC as the domestic hubs. AMS, CDG and NRT would remain as important foreign connection points, and JFK, LGA, MCO, and BOS would likely keep some status as focus cities. The alliance combination between Air France-KLM and Delta-Northwest might happen by default, unless the DOJ steps in to actively prevent it, and politics might prevent that.

That said, the combined airline would need to figure out what its mission is. Is it to haul lots of people to Orlando for cheap? Is it to defend its fortress hubs? Is it to dominate transatlantic and transpacific routes? I'm not sure that it can do all of those things at once, especially with $60/bbl oil. They would be well-served by a long, hard look at the airline business and its future, to find out what types of service they can make a profit on in five to ten years.
 
gigneil
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:26 am

Ugh, come on people. Think outside your tiny little boxes.

Commavia is right. The route network is perfect for merger (although honestly, I'm not sure MSP has that much of a place in the system in the interests of reduction).

CVG would, in fact, give way to DTW. SLC would be maintained (or sacrificed for MSP, who knows, both west/midwest hubs and MSP really isn't perfectly position for connecting traffic from anywhere but Washington and Maine).

The fleets are in fact large enough to be self sustaining:

The DC-9s and MD-80s would be a single fleet, and obviously be subject to rapid attrition. A huge fleet at that, and perfectly large enough to be self sustaining.

The A320 series at NW is the largest fleet of its kind in the world. Plenty big enough to generate economy of scale.

The 737 fleet at DL not quite so much. As the 732s and 733s go, the relatively small number of 738s at DL are an obvious target for attrition. Not any time in the immediate future, but I think this comparatively small subfleet would give way to the massive A320 fleet.

The 757 fleet would be the largest in the world. Pratt powered. Economy of scale satisfied.

Widebodies are a different story but still workable:

DL's tiny subfleet of 777s is obvious for grounding, especially since NW would handle Asia.
DL's 767 fleet is plenty large enough on its own, and NW has already opened the door for 787s i think that will be the migration path.
NW's A330 fleet will be pretty big, and is necessary for the company to complete its schedule, but I think would be the target of replacement by 787s

The 747 fleet is key to the Asian schedule, and with DL providing feed could even grow a bit with other PW powered used examples.


Anyway, that aside I agree the financials at both companies are precarious and there's no guarantee such a merger would work just due to debt load. However, the mechanics of the two operations are in fact quite compatible.

N
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:30 am

I think the dual filing yesterday has no signifance to a merger of the two. A NW/DL merger would be nothing short of a disaster. Only bigger disaster would have been the proposed UA/US back in 2000.

Major overlap on the eastern 1/2 of the US - ATL DTW CVG MEM JFK
SLC and MSP would be overlap for the west
Major fleet issues
Both have a ton of old planes.

The only way I could conceivably see it, is to switch song to 738s (big expense incurred) then have A319/320 domestic narrowbody, 757 is lighter intl routes.

it is quote possible, probably likelt that BOTH DL AND NW will merge..Just not with eachother!!!

As if there hasnt already been enough merger specilation, ill add mine in for the heck of it

DL/CO
NW/UA

Legacies are transformign more and more to how we see INTL flag carriers like BA and AF, with a primary focus on INTL routes, with the domestics left to LCCs. I expect this to be a continuing trend here.

DL/CO primary flag carrier for the atlantic
UA/NW primary flag carreir for the pacific
AA general more broad flag carrier
US/HP im considering an LCC though with a limited intl presence.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
gigneil
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:53 am

Actually, I want to add to my post but not edit it so that its noticeable.

I think its clear, if not blatantly obvious, that the two are planning to merge.

Both filed with the same court in Manhattan within moments of each other. Manhattan is so far from both of them its almost ridiculous. United filed in Chicago, as is appropriate. US Airways filed in Alexandria, as is appropriate. Yet a Minneapolis and an Atlanta company both file in Manhattan. Crazy.

It is obvious to me that they plan on having their cases consolidated under the same judge, and Steenland's comments about consolidation when pressed followed by the "no comment about future transactions" are almost a confession that there is a future transaction to comment about.

As I said, I think logistically this is a sound merger. Lets see if they can get the numbers together for it.

N
 
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N328KF
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:02 am

Garbage in, garbage out. That's what the concept of a DL/NW merger represents.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
SESGDL
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:06 am

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 20):
I've seen some analysts speak of this and combined with their opinions and that of my own, one thing more likely than any other is NW management will not succumb to even DL's - so if there is a merger DL would be bye-bye and the new airline would still be run by NW management in Eagan, Minnesota.

No way. DL is MUCH better well known and carries many more passengers than NW. DL is also a much bigger carrier and is large in many huge business markets in the US: ATL, LAX, MIA/FLL/PBI, MCO, DCA, LGA/EWR/JFK, and BOS. NW's big in DTW, MSP, MEM, and the Midwest. Now come on. What makes you think that DL's 60,000 employees and management are gonna succomb to a smaller, less-recognized airline's "supposedly" stubborn management team. Get real. If the two merged DL would clearly be the nameholder. Because an airline with its megahub in Atlanta called Northwest would really make sense wouldn't it?  Yeah sure And ATL would definitely be the largest hub, so why would headquarters be moved to Eagan?

What is with everybody saying that if DL merged with smaller airlines the smaller airline would take the brand? DL has the largest number of frequent fliers in the world. Why would they want to end a 75+ year old corporation known throughout the US and the world?

Jeremy
 
DLPMMM
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:30 am

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 20):
I've seen some analysts speak of this and combined with their opinions and that of my own, one thing more likely than any other is NW management will not succumb to even DL's - so if there is a merger DL would be bye-bye and the new airline would still be run by NW management in Eagan, Minnesota.



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 25):
It is obvious to me that they plan on having their cases consolidated under the same judge, and Steenland's comments about consolidation when pressed followed by the "no comment about future transactions" are almost a confession that there is a future transaction to comment about.

You guys are on the right track, but you have left out the wild card! They colsolidate their cases in a Manhattan court as Gigneil theorizes, but the new airline ends up being run by management in HOUSTON!

That's right! CO gets to shed all the debts and assets of DL and NW that they don't want in bankruptcy court and get all the goodies that are left in a stock swap.
 
blackearth
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:33 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 27):
What is with everybody saying that if DL merged with smaller airlines the smaller airline would take the brand?

Wasn't Republic a larger airline than NWA when those two merged?

Not saying that the merged airline would be called Northwest, but I'm not sure that size alone is the factor.
 
burnsie28
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:48 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 25):
Yet a Minneapolis

Technically NW is a Deleware company....

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 27):
DL is MUCH better well known and carries many more passengers than NW

Oh really, you mean like the fact that NW is the oldest airline in the US operating under the same name, the same airline that started operation two years prior to Delta. Northwest historically has a more heritage name and recognized, and in Europe Delta may be a big carrier, but its not "well known" like NW in Asia, most places in Asia they would say "whos Delta?"
 
gigneil
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:50 am

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 30):
Technically NW is a Deleware company....

Technically they all are. The point is, you file where your headquarters is.

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 30):
Northwest historically has a more heritage name and recognized, and in Europe Delta may be a big carrier, but its not "well known" like NW in Asia, most places in Asia they would say "whos Delta?

You have no ground to stand on. Delta is a signficiantly larger airline with significantly better brand recognition and there is simply no argument against that.

Northwest used to be "Northwest Orient" if you want to be picky.

N
 
PVD757
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:59 am

I just can't imagine overcoming the obvious hurdles in pairing these two up with one another...

It would be a gigantic mish-mash of airplanes and hub/focus cities with so much debt that they wouldn't be able to affort a pot to pee in. Who in there right mind (besides Boeing/Airbus/GE, etc.) would put any money into this?

They could each sell thier owned regional partners, but that's it...

This would be akin to the USAirways of the late 90's/early 2000's:

5 of every airplane and too many hubs, too close together.
 
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STT757
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:00 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 21):
Unfair to all this is CO, a well managed and prudent company, would be the loser. But who said business got to be fair?

DL/NWA = CO/UAL
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PPVRA
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:08 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 10):
Any integrated airline would perhaps choose to focus on either Airbus or Boeing for its short haul network – I’m guessing it would be Airbus A319/A320/A321 – and either Airbus or Boeing for its long haul network – I’m guessing Boeing 747/767/777/787.

I agree. DL needs to replace their norrowbody fleet of MDs soon anyways (IMO), so they might as well order a few more A320s with Airbus since NW already has them.

Maybe they can throw in some E-jets as well Big grin Those DC-9s will need to go some time!!  Wink

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 23):
DL's tiny subfleet of 777s is obvious for grounding, especially since NW would handle Asia.
DL's 767 fleet is plenty large enough on its own, and NW has already opened the door for 787s i think that will be the migration path.
NW's A330 fleet will be pretty big, and is necessary for the company to complete its schedule, but I think would be the target of replacement by 787s

Also agree that they would stick with the 787 for widebodies.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 25):
I think its clear, if not blatantly obvious, that the two are planning to merge.

Both filed with the same court in Manhattan within moments of each other. Manhattan is so far from both of them its almost ridiculous. United filed in Chicago, as is appropriate. US Airways filed in Alexandria, as is appropriate. Yet a Minneapolis and an Atlanta company both file in Manhattan. Crazy.

Agree too.

That would make a mega airline... 1000+ a/c!!!

Cheers,
PPVRA
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
AirRyan
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:11 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 27):
No way. DL is MUCH better well known and carries many more passengers than NW.

Not any more - that's all history now.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 27):
Now come on. What makes you think that DL's 60,000 employees and management are gonna succomb to a smaller, less-recognized airline's "supposedly" stubborn management team

They have nearly twice the debt that NW does for starters, NW will most likely emerge much sooner than DL, and DL could very well be ripe for a buyout from another carrier that will most likely not keep the Delta name unless it's from a substantially smaller carrier.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 27):
Because an airline with its megahub in Atlanta called Northwest would really make sense wouldn't it? And ATL would definitely be the largest hub, so why would headquarters be moved to Eagan?

What is with everybody saying that if DL merged with smaller airlines the smaller airline would take the brand? DL has the largest number of frequent fliers in the world. Why would they want to end a 75+ year old corporation known throughout the US and the world?

NW is older than DL.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 31):
You have no ground to stand on. Delta is a signficiantly larger airline with significantly better brand recognition and there is simply no argument against that.

Significantly, eh? Not anymore - DL's new cutbacks will have them resembling far less a carrier than what they used to be. Better brand recognition? DL only became a significant European carrier when they acquired PanAm in 1991 but NW makes up for it with their much larger and more market-known Asian market.

But let's cut to the chase - I don't want to see DL or NW merge as I like their respective codeshare alliance just fine. I want both airlines to come back more powerful and successful than they have ever been and even if NW were to buy out DL, I'd still be dissapointed. The odds of either airline going under are very, very low - that's why they filed before 10/17.
 
PVD757
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:18 am

NWA said today that intends to return 13 aircaft immediately and has identified 102 more aircraft that they might "remove."

[Edited 2005-09-15 22:19:23]
 
UA772IAD
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:18 am

I don't think its that rediculous. DL is the 3rd largest US airline and NW takes fourth. DL's service area is stronger in the South, particularly the Southeastern quadrant of the United States (South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, etc.) They hold strong ties to cities such as MCO, ATL, TPA, etc. While Northwest, on the other hand, is particularly strong in the upper Midwest and Northern Pacific areas (Detroit, Minneapolis, Seattle, Portland, etc). They overlap somewhere in the midwest- DTW/CVG/MSP/BNA/SLC. Northwest is only second to UA in terms of International service to Asia, while DL has a reputable service to Europe and Latin America.

Both airlines have pretty unique fleets too. And fleet changes are easier to conduct while in bankruptcy/reorganization protection, in fact it's very difficult and expensive to simplify a fleet if your not in protection. Both airlines still continue to rehabilitate and run older planes- the DC 9s and MD-80s, DC-10s, etc. What we won't see is the creditors seizing aircrafts (at least significant amounts) from either company. With UA and US still in protection, and Indy about to go for CH11 as well, taking back planes would only hurt the industry (too many planes on the market will cause it to drop).

I think a merger would make more sense than another airline (which can't afford it anyways) buying out either DL or NW.

Cheers.
 
cdgdtw
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:29 am

Can anyone comment on the story that 5th freedom from Japan must be flown by UAL and the company called NWA? I'm asking because a combined company would certainly not be willing to relinquish these routes by virtue of a name change.
 
bobnwa
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:52 am

Quoting Cdgdtw (Reply 38):
Can anyone comment on the story that 5th freedom from Japan must be flown by UAL and the company called NWA?

The rights were previously held by NWA and Pan AM so it must be OK to change the name.
 
quickmover
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:55 am

"NWA said today that intends to return 13 aircaft immediately and has identified 102 more aircraft that they might "remove."

Any idea what aircraft type they are talking about here?
 
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STT757
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:05 am

Quoting Cdgdtw (Reply 38):
Can anyone comment on the story that 5th freedom from Japan must be flown by UAL and the company called NWA? I'm asking because a combined company would certainly not be willing to relinquish these routes by virtue of a name change.

UAL bought those rights from Pan Am, so obviously they can be sold or transfered to another carrier.
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SESGDL
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:08 am

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 30):
Oh really, you mean like the fact that NW is the oldest airline in the US operating under the same name, the same airline that started operation two years prior to Delta. Northwest historically has a more heritage name and recognized, and in Europe Delta may be a big carrier, but its not "well known" like NW in Asia, most places in Asia they would say "whos Delta?"

Who cares about Asia? It's America that counts buddy.  Wink

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 35):

Significantly, eh? Not anymore - DL's new cutbacks will have them resembling far less a carrier than what they used to be. Better brand recognition? DL only became a significant European carrier when they acquired PanAm in 1991 but NW makes up for it with their much larger and more market-known Asian market.

Um.... I do recall NW also filing for bankruptcy, what, you don't think they're gonna downsize. DL will still be bigger than NW by all means. DL's domestic operations alone are bigger than all of NW's network. Add in DL's international network, which will only get larger and NW's only 2/3rds the size of DL.

And look at the nation's largest airlines markets: NYC, LA, Chicago, San Francisco, D.C., Atlanta, Las Vegas, Orlando, Miami area, Dallas area, and Boston. NW's presence is not significant in any of them. DL's presence is great in NYC, Atlanta, D.C., Orlando, the Miami area, and Boston. And DL's presence at every single one of those markets is bigger than NW's besides Chicago. You all must be insane to think that DL would get rid of its name in favor of NW's. Maybe DL to UA, AA, or even CO. But NW? Come on.

Jeremy
 
midnights
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:10 am

Look for UA and DAL to talk about merging......
 
SESGDL
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:16 am

Quoting Midnights (Reply 43):
Look for UA and DAL to talk about merging......

Where's this coming from? UA/DL would never get approved. They would control the US market in LA, San Francisco, Denver, Chicago, Atlanta, D.C., Orlando, New York, Boston, Cincinnati, Salt Lake City, and most other US airports. There's no way anyone would allow it. Imagine the size of a DL/UA airline.

Where are all these dumb SUPER-merger threads coming from? It's getting to be a bit ridiculous.

Jeremy
 
redflyer
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:21 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 25):
US Airways filed in Alexandria, as is appropriate. Yet a Minneapolis and an Atlanta company both file in Manhattan. Crazy.

Not necessarily crazy. They may have done it for expediency purposes. After all, I'm sure they share many of the same creditors so why not make it easier on the creditors? And it will be a lot easier to get a ruling by the BK court when a decision is rendered for one company that has the same affect on the other. It's simple consolidation.

But, more to the point in your thread, I do think it reflects a certain amount of coordination between the two companies, which can only mean they are in the nascent stages of a potential merger deal.

[Edited 2005-09-15 23:33:39]
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galapagapop
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:24 am

this undertaking would be on the scale of AA/TWA, but the biggest differecences are the little numbers of common fleets, close proximity of hubs, and both carriers are in trouble. AA pretty much stabbed themselves when it came to TWA. But you cannot deny the similarities when filing.
 
NWDC10
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:42 am

"When" merged, i would keep all 757's, 319's, 320's,330's and 747's. I would use the 767's/777's till they can be replaced by A330's. I would keep MEM as a "minor hub" but make ATL the major hub for the south east. I would close down CVG and concentrate on DTW in addition i would keep SLC and make it a major hub for the west. Robert NWDC10
 
satx
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:45 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 24):
I think the dual filing yesterday has no signifance to a merger of the two. A NW/DL merger would be nothing short of a disaster

And I thought bankrupcy was 'nothing short of disaster'.  Big grin

Anyway, I'll throw my hat into the ring and say that I think NW+DL will eventually become one company with two names, similar to KL+AF.
Open Season on Consumer Protections is Just Around the Corner...
 
slider
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RE: Speculation On DL/NW Merger

Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:51 am

Quoting QuestAir (Reply 17):
IF these two airlines were to megre, under whose name would they fly?

Fubar Airways?

LOL!

Gotta love threads like this. It's why the internet was created.  Smile

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