sidishus
Posts: 488
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Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:19 am

IF...and at this point (00z 20 Sept) that's a BIG IF...Rita landfalling just to the southwest of the Houston metro area is bad news for HOU in particular and IAH as well.
None of that region has experienced a major hurricane in 23 years. People won't get to work and hub ops (call it whatever you wish but WN hubs in HOU) will be next to impossible with widespread power and phone outages.
A couple of days of IAH shutdown could potentially push CO to near bankruptcy and WN-on top of the MSY loss-will have a tough time maintaining profitability for the quarter. (IMHO)
the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
 
OPNLguy
Posts: 11191
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:39 am

Yesterday, the track was headed straight at BRO...

Today, it's GLS...

Tomorrow, who knows? BPT? LCH? God forbid, MSY?

No doubt, oil production will be disrupted as Gulf rigs are evacuated, and the effect gets worse if refineries, etc., in the HOU-GLS-BPT-LCH area are affected.

I remember that seemingly "harmless" weather system that dumped all that rain that flooded out the Med Center some years back....

Let's wait and see what happens...
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Flyinround731
Posts: 181
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2000 4:47 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:45 am

I'll be getting out of Dodge if Rita makes that northward turn, reports say is could be a Cat. 3 at the least. Last night, the weatherman was all "doom and gloom" about it possibly being Cat. 5 when striking the Houston metro area. Though Houston is about 50 feet above sea level compared to NOLA which has parts below sea level, flooding will still be bad. I was born after Alicia hit, so I've never experienced a direct hit by a hurricane, and I don't want to. Dallas, Houston may hate you very much, but when a major storm comes to town, we'll still hate you and just go up I-35 to OKC instead.  Smile

If Rita comes this way, where do you think CO and WN will fly their equipment out to?
-Joe
 
redngold
Posts: 6673
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:22 am

I'm just guessing here, but I would think:

CO evacuates to MEM (Northwest partner) and ATL (if Delta has any room)

WN evacuates to DAL (whatever space is left) and PHX (their second largest focus city)
Up, up and away!
 
sidishus
Posts: 488
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:45 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:39 am

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 1):
Yesterday, the track was headed straight at BRO...

Today, it's GLS...

Tomorrow, who knows? BPT? LCH? God forbid, MSY?

The model data is beginning to coalesce onto the upper Texas coast...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html

As a long term hurricane veteran -starting with Donna in 1960 ,and including such notables as Camille (PNS), Agnes (was in Hershey PA for that one), Andrew (New Iberia on a seismic ship), Frederick (at sea on a destroyer), Erin, Opal, Ivan, Katrina- I understand about the uncertainties.
WN and CO had best be thinking how the worst case would impact them...Now!. To do otherwise is...well...crazy.

Best sites to follow are the Navy's maps here (click into the tropical storms on the left hand menu). This gives the best represnetaion of the extent of the wind radii:
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html

And of course the source of the data from the TPC. Make it a point to READ!!! the discussions and not just look at the graphics!!!!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

At this juncture I pretty much stop watching the over hype you see on TV (go ahead and ding me about Bastardi Tornado82, but I don't view him nearly as polyannish as you do).
the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
 
ScottB
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:33 am

Quoting Sidishus (Thread starter):
and WN-on top of the MSY loss-will have a tough time maintaining profitability for the quarter. (IMHO)

Someone is really, really, really obsessed, methinks.

Quoting Sidishus (Thread starter):
None of that region has experienced a major hurricane in 23 years.

Actually, 22 years (and I rode Alicia out in Galveston). But the flooding from Tropical Storm Allison was severe enough to cause serious disruptions at IAH (and for Allison to have the unique distinction of being the only tropical storm to have its name retired).

In any case, while Houston would certainly suffer significant wind damage and street flooding as the result of a Category 4 or 5 storm coming ashore near between High Island and Freeport, the level of devastation is unlikely to be anything like what Katrina brought upon New Orleans, given Houston's elevation 50 feet above sea level. I do pray for my family and friends in Galveston.
 
sidishus
Posts: 488
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:45 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:19 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 5):
Quoting Sidishus (Thread starter):
and WN-on top of the MSY loss-will have a tough time maintaining profitability for the quarter. (IMHO)

Someone is really, really, really obsessed, methinks.

As before...we'll see when the quarterly earnings are announced

While Alicia put whuppin on the area, Rita promises to be a much larger storm and of the same intensity of an Ivan...
That ain't a pretty picture.
the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
 
Lt-AWACS
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:38 pm

I did Alicia in Houston back in 83 and it sucked. I only hope this veers away from Houston. YOu thought gas got expensive after New Orleans got hit, just wait and see what happens when the "Energy Capital of the World" gets hit  Sad

TS Allison sucked also. The worst Tropical storm in US history.

As for the airlines, I actually think WN would be hurt a bit more because if the storm hits Texas other WN cities will also be affected with heavy rain. I think CO could restart IAH quickly and just cut the other spoke flights that are affected.

Ciao, and Hook 'em Horns,
Capt-AWACS, A Houston Tradition Since 1975
Io voglio fica ogni giorni da mia bella moglie!
 
ScottB
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:54 pm

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 6):
While Alicia put whuppin on the area, Rita promises to be a much larger storm and of the same intensity of an Ivan...

Really now? And the source of your forecasts of wind intensity would be? NHC discussions have Rita predicted to be a Category 3 (like Alicia) at landfall -- and the models are now moving the storm further southwest along the coast.

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 6):
As before...we'll see when the quarterly earnings are announced

The effect on Q3 earnings from 6-7 days at the end of the quarter affecting perhaps at most 10% of daily flights is likely to be small in the grand scheme of things -- especially given how strong their traffic was for July and August. My observation is that you are somehow obsessed with whether or not Southwest will be profitable.
 
Meteorologist
Posts: 99
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 5:01 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:18 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
Really now? And the source of your forecasts of wind intensity would be? NHC discussions have Rita predicted to be a Category 3 (like Alicia) at landfall -- and the models are now moving the storm further southwest along the coast.

Being a governmental weather "insider," you should note that NHC's intensity forecasts have egregious errors regularly. Intensity in both the wind field and depth of the surface pressure are horribly difficult to forecast with any reliability or accuracy with these storms. At the moment from the 00z guidance, the objective aids are spread anywhere from just north of Brownsville to just west of New Orleans...it'll be quite a qhile before any certainty in the track is figured out, let alone any accurate portrayal of the intensity can be estimated.
 
sidishus
Posts: 488
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:45 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:21 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
While Alicia put whuppin on the area, Rita promises to be a much larger storm and of the same intensity of an Ivan...

Really now? And the source of your forecasts of wind intensity would be? NHC discussions have Rita predicted to be a Category 3 (like Alicia) at landfall -- and the models are now moving the storm further southwest along the coast.

The forecasted wind radii (did you go into the navy's plot?) indicates this will be a very large storm.
Good late breaking news!! The intensity forecast has diminished...just a little.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...at3+shtml/025048.shtml?chart?large
However, it must be noted the folks at TPC will be the first to admit the skill at forecating intensity is less than they would like. So its' still a bit of a crapshoot this far out in time. Even so, this is gonna be a big, powerful, storm.

And let's get the facts straight about what intensity Ivan was at landfall...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?
Although Ivan was weakening as it made its first U.S. landfall, it is estimated to have been a category 3 hurricane when it reached the Alabama coast.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
My observation is that you are somehow obsessed with whether or not Southwest will be profitable.

Not really. It would be a good thing for some friends of mine if I'm wrong.
How come you cannot tolerate hearing about te negatives that are impacting WN?You Scott, seem to be the obsessed one.
the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
 
Meteorologist
Posts: 99
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 5:01 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:25 pm

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 10):
However, it must be noted the folks at TPC will be the first to admit the skill at forecating intensity is less than they would like. So its' still a bit of a crapshoot this far out in time. Even so, this is gonna be a big, powerful, storm.

I think it matters more which of the hurricane forecasters is on duty than anything. Each of them will probably only forecast a certain intensity that far out, and it really only matters who amongst them it is and their personal biases. If you have access, you should listen to the verbal discussion between TPC and HPC on the Hurricane Conference line at 4 AM ET. It'll be very enlightening.
 
Meteorologist
Posts: 99
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 5:01 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:25 pm

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 10):
However, it must be noted the folks at TPC will be the first to admit the skill at forecating intensity is less than they would like. So its' still a bit of a crapshoot this far out in time. Even so, this is gonna be a big, powerful, storm.

I think it matters more which of the hurricane forecasters is on duty than anything. Each of them will probably only forecast a certain intensity that far out, and it really only matters who amongst them it is and their personal biases. If you have access, you should listen to the verbal discussion between TPC and HPC on the Hurricane Conference line at 4 AM ET. It'll be very enlightening.
 
sidishus
Posts: 488
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:45 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:34 pm

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 12):
If you have access, you should listen to the verbal discussion between TPC and HPC on the Hurricane Conference line at 4 AM ET. It'll be very enlightening.

I can't hang with you guys cloaked in your CAPEs behind that Theta-e ridge
 Wink
the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
 
Meteorologist
Posts: 99
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 5:01 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 1:58 pm

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 13):

Oh they won't be talking CAPE or Theta-E, haha. They'll probably be talking about the depth of the upper low in the west and its effects on the high near the Gulf Coast. Those are the two predominate factors that will determine where this bad girl goes.
 
sidishus
Posts: 488
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:45 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:08 pm

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 14):
Oh they won't be talking CAPE or Theta-E, haha

So, do you think this will worst of both worlds? High winds and high QPF?
the truth: first it is ridiculed second it is violently opposed finally it is accepted as self-evident
 
OPNLguy
Posts: 11191
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 1999 11:29 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:15 pm

C'mon guys, let's not get into a pissing match over who's got the biggest barometer....  Wink
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Meteorologist
Posts: 99
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 5:01 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:38 pm

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 15):

I would say that's like...however where it will occur is something I don't have a great handle on at the moment.
 
Aggieflyboi04
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:28 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:50 pm

I just looked at the latest projected track from the National Hurricane center, and it has it coming on shore between Galveston and Freeport on Saturday as a Catagory3 storm.
 
Meteorologist
Posts: 99
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 5:01 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:53 pm

Quoting Aggieflyboi04 (Reply 18):
I just looked at the latest projected track from the National Hurricane center, and it has it coming on shore between Galveston and Freeport on Saturday as a Catagory3 storm.

Looks like the newest guidance is coming in somewhere near CRP.
 
Aggieflyboi04
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 2:28 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:34 pm

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 19):
Looks like the newest guidance is coming in somewhere near CRP.

Where are you seeing that, Hurricane center is saying between Galveston and Freeport as of 11pm est advisory
 
ltbewr
Posts: 12388
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 6:52 pm

The big concern I have is the potential of Rita to be a 'super soaker', dumping huge amounts of rain in LA and TX, causing serious flooding in the areas where many evacuees from Katrina have gone to. This could also undo some of the recovery from Katrina, and at worse, damage more already weaked levies, reflooding the region.
On a broader scale, Rita, on top of Katrina in a critical part of the USA as to shipping and oil sources, transportation and processing, will be to badly affect all airlines, not just WN, CO. Another spike in fuel costs as well as a wide range of economic problems including a potential recession and increased inflation could cause a sharp decline in demand for airflights.
Let's hope and pray Rita weakens or at worst, goes into a less populated area.
 
drerx7
Posts: 4218
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2000 12:19 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:42 pm

I'm not getting worried until it passes the Yucatan--then the hurricane models will be somewhat accurate.
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:07 pm

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 4):
(go ahead and ding me about Bastardi Tornado82, but I don't view him nearly as polyannish as you do).

Stick with NHC, they did damn well with Katrina (they're not responsible for evacuations and levee breaks), and remember that Bastardi sent Ophelia to a landfall over just about every major population area of the SE US as a scare tactic while sometimes being over a thousand miles off of the NHC track... meanwhile NHC was pretty much spot on once Ophelia actually began to move towards the Carolinas.

Quoting Lt-AWACS (Reply 7):
I think CO could restart IAH quickly and just cut the other spoke flights that are affected.

Yeah, unlike MSY, and unlike New Orleans as a whole... IAH is far enough above sea level that even with "catastrophic flooding" it'll just drain its way down to sea on its own within a reasonable (couple days total) timeframe. New Orleans, by theory, would remain a swampy lake until the end of time if it wasn't for human and mechanical intervention. Remember, the winds and rains didn't get New Orleans... it was the levee breaks.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
Really now? And the source of your forecasts of wind intensity would be? NHC discussions have Rita predicted to be a Category 3 (like Alicia) at landfall

Agreed

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 9):
Being a governmental weather "insider," you should note that NHC's intensity forecasts have egregious errors regularly.

Likewise, agreed! However, so far NHC has been over-forecasting Rita. Note that little Rita is still a TS right now. NHC has been trying its hardest to make it a hurricane but just can't yet. In the discussions right now they are talking about a lack of explosive development and whatnot so far. Structurally, the storm isn't the most "healthy" tropical storm I've ever seen. Poor outflow so far on the north and south. No well defined eyewall yet on radar, and dry air intrusions still getting sucked into the storm. It's also close enough to the terrain of Cuba to probably get slightly affected by that as well from the south. There's no doubt it'll strengthen over the Gulf, but to say Cat 5 as was mentioned up above is just a scare tactic at this point. Even the latest SHIPS model guidance keeps this one below Cat 3 across the Gulf now.

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 12):
I think it matters more which of the hurricane forecasters is on duty than anything.

Definitely happens at SPC as well. The human fudge factor, happens everywhere in life... and is magnified at SPC/NHC because they really don't have anyone to play off of except themselves. Local NWS FO's have the neighboring offices to discuss with which tends to moderate everyone's fudge factor. NHC is the big time show basically.

Quoting Sidishus (Reply 13):
I can't hang with you guys cloaked in your CAPEs behind that Theta-e ridge



Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 14):
Oh they won't be talking CAPE or Theta-E, haha. They'll probably be talking about the depth of the upper low in the west and its effects on the high near the Gulf Coast.

Lol, Cloaked in CAPEs, I like it, but like Meteorologist said they won't be needing CAPE for a tropical event. The whole issue will where Rita makes its NE turn in the Gulf, and Meteorologist already covered that.

For WN/CO, as long as they're smart enough to get the planes out in time, the effects will only last as long as the storm is effecting the terminals. Even if this thing went against all laws of meteorology and somehow made it to Cat 5, the effects to Houston would be much less severe than MSY's were because quite simply you can rebuild from wind damage easier than you can drain a new lake the size of a major metropolitan area and then rebuild from that. Definitely not enough to drive CO into bankrupcy as someone mentioned.
 
drerx7
Posts: 4218
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2000 12:19 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:23 pm

The effects would be less traumatic than a blizzard at EWR for CO. IAH is so far north it may as well be on the southside of Dallas  silly . I stay on Braes Bayou, during Allison the water came up to the end of my driveway, so I'm slightly alarmed about wind damage. I will be gasin' up the cars just in case though.
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:27 pm

Quoting Drerx7 (Reply 24):
The effects would be less traumatic than a blizzard at EWR for CO

Honestly, a good analogy. Some of the more memorable recent blizzards (Jan '05, Presidents day '02) had effects on BOS, PHL, EWR, etc. that lasted for days. Hell, that was the only way Transatlantic made it back to PIT even (haha).
 
cle757
Posts: 798
Joined: Wed Apr 06, 2005 8:28 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:00 am

Quoting Redngold (Reply 3):
I'm just guessing here, but I would think:

CO evacuates to MEM (Northwest partner) and ATL (if Delta has any room)

I would think they would sent most aircraft to CLE and EWR, some to outstations.
Cleveland the best location in the Nation
 
777gk
Posts: 1488
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2000 3:04 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:15 am

Skyteam partners would have no bearing on Continental weather-related diversions. We have stations all over the Southeast and are well-equipped to spread diversions across our own assets.

Aircraft will go to the nearest "safe" destination where we have Continental staff and support equipment, and will return to IAH as soon as possible.
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:18 am

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 1):
God forbid, MSY?

If it hit's MSY it's time for the US to face a bit of reality and take a hint.
 
texan
Posts: 4059
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2003 2:23 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 3:42 am

Quoting Redngold (Reply 3):
WN evacuates to DAL (whatever space is left) and PHX (their second largest focus city)

Latest update is that the majority of the models show an almost direct hit on Houston, then turning even more northerly with 4 models showing it hitting the DFW Metroplex pretty much head on, albeit as a much weakened storm (low Cat. 1-Med. Tropical Storm). The other model shows it hitting near Corpus then turning up to Austin. We've had a lot of corporate planes call up and say that they are going to come here first, but they also state they are wary at the potential damage that could befall their planes if Rita stays on the projected path. If Rita stays on this path, WN would be unlikely to send their planes to DAL; if we get hit with bad weather for the storm for a few days then the planes are still stuck. Look for them to send planes more westward than up I-45.

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
InTheSky74
Posts: 427
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2005 3:25 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 3:48 am

If a storm like this hit Houston, and it caused major damage to the area, this could be the nail in the coffin for Continental. Not for good, but an excuse to file bankruptcy....

Rob
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:07 am

Quoting InTheSky74 (Reply 30):
If a storm like this hit Houston, and it caused major damage to the area, this could be the nail in the coffin for Continental. Not for good, but an excuse to file bankruptcy....

Once again... New Orleans fared relatively fine through the storm's wind/rain... with no more damage than any other area experiencing a landfalling hurricane. Buildings are pretty robust to winds, folks. It was when the levees broke that did them in down in New Orleans. There are no levees protecting below sea-level sections of Houston, because Houston is above sea level. Any flooding would recede in a day or two. I realize alot of people want to see CO join the bankrupcy ranks with NW/DL/US/UA because misery loves company, but you people seriously need to take a deep breath and relax.

If Katrina had hit anywhere but MSY, the effects would have been MUCH less, even if it had hit Houston. Look at this storm this way, InTheSky74:

Quoting Drerx7 (Reply 24):
The effects would be less traumatic than a blizzard at EWR for CO. IAH is so far north it may as well be on the southside of Dallas



Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 21):
The big concern I have is the potential of Rita to be a 'super soaker', dumping huge amounts of rain in LA and TX, causing serious flooding in the areas where many evacuees from Katrina have gone to.

Won't happen. Regardless of location of landfall, with the location of the upper level features by the time this storm makes landfall, it'll be moving much too fast to cause widespread "super soaking" to any one specific area. We're moving into a more fall-like pattern now than we were a few weeks ago, and generally speaking that brings quicker winds aloft.
 
thomasphoto60
Posts: 3712
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2000 1:04 pm

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:08 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 28):
If it hit's MSY it's time for the US to face a bit of reality and take a hint.

And what might that be?

Thomas
"Show me the Braniffs"
 
drerx7
Posts: 4218
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2000 12:19 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:09 am

Quoting Texan (Reply 29):
Latest update is that the majority of the models show an almost direct hit on Houston, then turning even more northerly with 4 models showing it hitting the DFW Metroplex pretty much head on, albeit as a much weakened storm (low Cat. 1-Med. Tropical Storm).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap..._at3+shtml/174406.shtml?5day?large Houston is not a direct hit any longer nor is Galveston. However, its still too early to say.

Quoting InTheSky74 (Reply 30):
If a storm like this hit Houston, and it caused major damage to the area, this could be the nail in the coffin for Continental. Not for good, but an excuse to file bankruptcy....

'A storm like this' a category 3 will not send CO into bankruptcy--at most IAH would be offline for a day-2 days. Like I said in previous post--a blizzard at EWR would have a far greater impact on CO than this storm.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/
That is a good link to the possible scenarios
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:12 am

Drerx7: Starting to feel like this?  banghead  because I sure am.
 
drerx7
Posts: 4218
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2000 12:19 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:23 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 34):
Drerx7: Starting to feel like this? because I sure am.

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA Big grin ---thats exactly how I feel  crackup 
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
ScottB
Posts: 5446
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:27 am

Quoting Drerx7 (Reply 24):
The effects would be less traumatic than a blizzard at EWR for CO

Agreed 100% unless a tornado hit one of the terminals at IAH or HOU, I suppose.

In any case, the current predictions have Rita headed towards Port Lavaca (or perhaps Indianola for you Texas history buffs) which would also be good news for oil & gas production/refining. Not that you can put too much stock into the forecasts 4-5 days out.

Quoting Meteorologist (Reply 19):
Looks like the newest guidance is coming in somewhere near CRP

I'm waiting now for Sidishus' dire predictions on how this will affect WN and CO as the largest airlines at CRP.
 
OPNLguy
Posts: 11191
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 1999 11:29 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:39 am

Quoting Redngold (Reply 3):
'm just guessing here, but I would think:



Quoting Redngold (Reply 3):
WN evacuates to DAL (whatever space is left) and PHX (their second largest focus city)

What will probably happen (assuming a landfall Saturday somewhere GLS-VCT) is that HOU/IAH will most likely see crosswinds go out of limits sometime 10-12 hours prior to Rita's landfall, or sometime Friday afternoon.

At that point, WN would start "overflying" some HOU flights, and canceling others, both with the idea of keeping the aircraft eventually "flowing" to where they had been orginally planned to park for the night. Anything scheduled to overnight at HOU (and probably CRP too) would not do so, and would be ferried to a point somewhere "downstream" of HOU that it normally would have flown to the next day. For example, if it was scheduled to RON at HOU and originate HOU-AUS-ELP the next morning, it'd ferry HOU-AUS to RON, and originate AUS-ELP the next morning....

WN normally parks 15-20 aircraft at HOU every night, and they won't all be in DAL. They'll be all over the map based upon the aircraft's subsequent routing, and considering the weather at their new destinations...
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:46 am

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 37):
What will probably happen (assuming a landfall Saturday somewhere GLS-VCT) is that HOU/IAH will most likely see crosswinds go out of limits sometime 10-12 hours prior to Rita's landfall, or sometime Friday afternoon.

OPNLguy, from your respected position on here as a dispatcher where you would obviously be dealing first hand with the effects of operational disruptions, and with your knowledge of ops in that geographic area since WN is obviously quite entrenched there...

Do you feel this will be any bigger event than say the blizzard in January '05 which effected everything from PHL to the NYC area to PVD, MHT, etc., as far as it's effect on WN or other airlines in the region?
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:02 am

Quoting Thomasphoto60 (Reply 32):
And what might that be?

Spend a few hundred billion on other things.
 
OPNLguy
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:15 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 38):
Do you feel this will be any bigger event than say the blizzard in January '05 which effected everything from PHL to the NYC area to PVD, MHT, etc., as far as it's effect on WN or other airlines in the region?

It's possible that it could be. I never can remember the name of that seemingly "minor" tropical system a few years back (that dropped so much rain overnight that much of Houston's Med Center flooded), but if I recall correctly, the TRACON out at IAH also flooded. Houston Center stayed up, via back-up power, IIRC. For at least a couple of days, I'd imagine travelers to/from either airport are going to have trouble with flooded roads and downed trees/powerlines

Just too many variables this far out. I'm now hearing that Rita may be a Cat-4 by landfall, and I can't imagine a big storm surge coming up Galveston Bay and the Ship Channel being any more "helpful" to the region than Katrina's was to Mobile and Gulfport.

No offense to those between CRP-BRO, but I wish Rita would head straight for a point equidistant from the two...

(BTW, my Mom lives in NW Houston, and while I don't expect flooding to be a big issue for her, she is 80, and requires daily insulin injections. My brother and his wife (an RN) are driving her up here to the Big D and she'll be shuttling between my sister's place in east Dallas, and my place in the burbs... Once we're assured that her place in Houston has power (for A/C and meds), I'll probably drive her back down M-W of next week sometime...)
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
drerx7
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:20 am

Rita is still being forcasted as making landfall as a 3 and according to the NHC it will make landfall closer to Port Lavaca--not Galveston. That storm you speak of is Allison. When Allison hit--even though TRACON flooded the disruptions were alleviated within 24-48hrs.
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
TransIsland
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:28 am

Last nihgt, when Rita was just a tropical storm, she went over Andros Island in the Bahamas. Haven't heard any reports from the island yet. Nassau got some feeder bands, but at least my area didn't even lose power. This morning, everything was business as usual.

I hope she won't do another She-who-must-not-be-named to the Gulf Coast...
I'm an aviation expert. I have Sky Juice for breakfast.
 
Tornado82
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:49 am

The difference with Allison was that she practically stalled over Houston (somewhat like Ophelia did last week) and that rain was able to repeatedly fall over Houston for a prolonged period of time.

Rita, regardless of where she landfalls, will be moving significantly quicker than Allison, and there will be no problems of those types because while the rains will still be quite heavy, they won't last for nearly as long. The storm surge surely wouldnt make it to the facilities at IAH. I don't know where tracon is down there, but if they survived flooding from Allison I'd assume they could do likewise this time.
 
CO757bos2iah
Posts: 78
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:27 am

Quoting Drerx7 (Reply 24):
IAH is so far north it may as well be on the southside of Dallas

It is far north. At least 76 miles from the coast.Just off the top of my head,it's 56miles from Freeport ( somewhat in the area of galveston,Brazoria County. ) and IAH is 20 miles north of Houston. If anything lots of rain and heavy gusts.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 43):
The storm surge surely wouldnt make it to the facilities at IAH. I don't know where tracon is down there, but if they survived flooding from Allison I'd assume they could do likewise this time.

I live in Spring/The Woodlands area and the only flooding I need to worry about is Spring Creek off Cypresswood. My neighborhood had no flooding, and as far as the northside, area's around the Hardy Toll / N Beltway 8 sustained flooding, JFK in and out( there's an FAA facility on JFK which I think is TRACON ) and Sam Clayton in and out of IAH where underwater. But it'll take alot of drain stoppage to cause significant flooding.A storm surge that far north I doubt it.
Continental Airlines. We span the globe,because the world is your workplace.
 
redngold
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:37 am

Quoting TransIsland (Reply 42):
she went over Andros Island in the Bahamas. Haven't heard any reports from the island yet.

I read something on a http://www.wunderground.com blog about a wind reading of 65 mph on Andros Island yesterday... I can't find it now... It was either in Dr. Jeff Masters's or Steve Gregory's blog.
Up, up and away!
 
Tornado82
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:04 pm

Quoting Redngold (Reply 45):
wind reading of 65 mph on Andros Island yesterday...

65 is relatively nothing. Any coastal area sees 65mph time and time again... nothing to worry about.
 
ScottB
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:19 pm

Quoting CO757bos2iah (Reply 44):

It is far north. At least 76 miles from the coast.

Well, that depends on where you're talking about the coast. La Porte to IAH is probably only 30 miles as the crow flies, and it's 57 straight-line miles from GLS (1 mile behind the Seawall) to IAH. You will not have storm surge flooding at either IAH or HOU because both are far too high in elevation; IAH is at roughly 100'.
 
Meteorologist
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:47 pm

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 23):
Stick with NHC, they did damn well with Katrina (they're not responsible for evacuations and levee breaks), and remember that Bastardi sent Ophelia to a landfall over just about every major population area of the SE US as a scare tactic while sometimes being over a thousand miles off of the NHC track... meanwhile NHC was pretty much spot on once Ophelia actually began to move towards the Carolinas.

Just a quick note on this...and again I say listen to the conference calls at 02z, 05z, 08z, 11z, 14z, 17z, 20z for real in depth information, but HPC forecast tracks outperformed NHC's tracks for Katrina on almost every model run cycle. The problem with NHC's track positions is that they dwell on persistence too long sometimes, so it's easy for HPC to out-threat-score them, if you will. Maybe this is just my bias toward HPC (since I work there), but it really does seem to be the case.
 
Aggieflyboi04
Posts: 164
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RE: Rita Threatening WN And CO

Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:59 pm

I spent the day on campus in the metorolgy department with a frined that is a grad student that studies Hurricanes. He is showing a Cat 4 direct hit on Galveston then perrty much moving up I-45 and staying at least to a Catogry 1 until it gets around Madisonville, the FEMA people that are in town working with Kartina evacuess are saying that they are hearing perrty much what he was saying excpete they are hearing cat 5. IAH and HOU will both be able to reopen rather quickly, so I would say the effects on WN and CO will be bad, but not as bad as they could be.