david31998
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Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:40 am

Considering Boeing's recent estimate of future demand for aircraft in China, I thought this is a good time to discuss China's interest in producing planes that will compete directly against the 737 and 320. I regularly work in China and I am aware that the Chinese are actively discussing the possibility of getting into this market. Of course, this effort would be at the government's initiative and my sources are from the government controlled press. So my questions (comments) are:

1. Can a third competitor be successful in the 737-320 market?

2. There is some wishful thinking by the Chinese that B and A will give up this market (as they have done for smaller planes) and focus on more expensive models. Seems to me that high sales and profitability of the 737 and 320 preclude this idea.

3. Does this discussion by the Chinese push B and A to more quickly develop new models for this market.

I am new to this forum and I hope that I am not dealing with a old topic.
David
 
Dougloid
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:01 am

Interesting....we DO know that they can make MD80s....I always thought they should buy up the tooling and go into business with a nice type certificate already printed up....hell, I still got my old DAC inspection stamp somewhere, i'd do that in a heartbeat. Some of my buddies worked at SAIC during the MD80 coproduction program...there was a nice feature in Life magazine called Yanks in China back around 1978 that had a friend of mine on the cover...

They've also got a pretty robust indigenous aircraft and engine industry largely based on Russ designs. Their turboprops look pretty sturdy...the Xian MA60 and the Harbin Y13 call em F27 and Twin Otter if you like....Global Security says they're already working on RJ type project.

They just bought 38 new IL76 transports from the Russians for the military-and got a helluva deal on them too.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/hamc.htm

Bank on it...it's not a question of IF, but WHEN, and they'll kick butt when they decide it's time.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
astral
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:24 am

What China is looking into is the 100-120 seats aircraft market. The B717 is out of production, while the CRJ and ERJ are not really up to that seating size and with the right range. Although Boeing can restart B717, but it is old technology and is too large for most market segments.
The Chinese is developing its ARJ21, and it is very possible for it to grow in size and range to meet airlines demands.
The first flight of the ARJ21 should be mid-2006, and once that is in production, then a growth version can be devloped. So far there is no plan for the Chinese to develope any large size (minimum B737 size/weight) civil aircraft.
 
BR076
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:28 am

Let's just hope that they design their planes better than their cars.
Chinese SUV Gets Zero In Euro Ncap Crash Test (by Cornish Sep 19 2005 in Non Aviation)
ú
 
Dougloid
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:34 am

Yikes.....it'll take em a few years to figure that out....the first Hyundais for sale here (the Excel) did not do well in crash tests and engine life was limited.

I'm surprised that they're selling them in the EU....I do not think their vehicles are even close to Cali or 49 state compliant over on the emission side.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:40 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 4):

I'm surprised that they're selling them in the EU....I do not think their vehicles are even close to Cali or 49 state compliant over on the emission side.

The crash result has lead to many rised doubts on why this driving coffin is allowed to be sold in Europe. Its even worse than my VW Bug from 1983.

The reason is pretty easy: It weighs 2510 kgs, crash tests are only mandatory for a weight up to 2500 kgs. I think this rule will not last.

About the Chinese, it will only be a matter of time. They already presented an airplane that looks like a MD 80 copy. In 30 years they will have great designs, and if we continue to be so stupid to give the Chinese our know-how, this will even go faster.

Michael
 
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scbriml
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:44 am

The size of the market in the 120-200 seater range is big enough to support three manufacturers. Can the Chinese get in to this market? Certainly, they'd have a pretty large home market at a minimum. Can they produce something that the rest of the World wants to buy? That's the big question.

I can certainly see Embraer or Bombardier linking up with the Chinese as a way to break in to the larger plane markets. Would Airbus or Boeing see the need to protect their market share by linking up with the Chinese in a risk-sharing venture? I'm not so sure about that. It's one thing to subcontract the 787 wings to Japan, but would Congress allow a significant transfer of advanced technology to China for a 737 replacement?

If Airbus and Boeing both launch their single-aisle replacements in the next five years, it's difficult to see a new player breaking in for this generation, they may have to wait 20-25 years for the next wave.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
Dougloid
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:14 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 5):
They already presented an airplane that looks like a MD 80 copy.

It was not a copy. It was an MD80 built under license at SAIC in Shanghai with the full cooperation of McDonnell Douglas.

They DID, however, try to reverse engineer a 707 and that was a flop although as an exercise in skill building it mighta been ok. That was known as the Y10 Shanghai.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
flybyguy
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:34 am

I say let the Chinese fly their junk (no pun intended) It's one thing building western aircraft up to western standards, but it's a totally different thing when you have them building their own planes to their own standards. I would fathom that the Chinese ARJ would be banned from flying in or over any other country that cares for the welfare of it's citizens because those Chinese jets will be just like their rubbish Landwind cars, built cheaply with no regard whatever for safety.
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
 
PPVRA
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:45 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 6):
I can certainly see Embraer or Bombardier linking up with the Chinese as a way to break in to the larger plane markets.

Embraer is already in China:



Cheers
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
MarshalN
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:05 am

Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 8):
I say let the Chinese fly their junk (no pun intended) It's one thing building western aircraft up to western standards, but it's a totally different thing when you have them building their own planes to their own standards. I would fathom that the Chinese ARJ would be banned from flying in or over any other country that cares for the welfare of it's citizens because those Chinese jets will be just like their rubbish Landwind cars, built cheaply with no regard whatever for safety.

I think that's what people said about Japanese cars 30 years ago, small, crappy, flimsy, low powered, you name it.

Look what happened.
 
mrocktor
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:46 am

I'm sure it can be done. Here is hoping we do it before the Chinese...

mrocktor
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:14 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 7):

It was not a copy. It was an MD80 built under license at SAIC in Shanghai with the full cooperation of McDonnell Douglas.


Thats not what I meant. China is planning a new regional jet which has resemblance to the MD80, I don't know the name, though.

Michael
 
SWISSER
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:31 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 12):
Thats not what I meant. China is planning a new regional jet which has resemblance to the MD80, I don't know the name, though.

Michael

I' v seen the stand on Le Bourget of the makers, behind GE, but I dont recall the name either, they did'nt recieve any orders on the airshow though.
What time is top of descent?
 
flight152
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:11 am

the first Hyundais for sale here (the Excel) did not do well in crash tests and engine life was limited.

Except Hyundai is a Korean brand..
 
HKGKaiTak
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:49 am

Well I hope the Chinese will build a good passenger airliner to rival what the western world has done ... it's only a matter of time. What's the bet they'll not only get it right first time but be able to offer a great aircraft at lower costs than either A or B?

I'm sure they'd find a ready market for them in China and the Indian subcontinent for starters.
4 Engines 4 LongHaul
 
Dougloid
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:55 am

Quoting Flight152 (Reply 14):
Except Hyundai is a Korean brand..

I knew that
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
david31998
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:28 am

The quality of Chinese products is a big problem. Many Chinese companies have a business model of immediate profits without regard to quality and customer satisfaction. So they have big problems in global competition. I would never buy electronics, appliances, or a car from a Chinese company.

But getting back to the point, can China within the next 20 years be a direct competitor with B and A? They very much want to step into this position. I have read recent reports from senior aviation government officials that they think they have an opening now. But if they wait they will have a more difficult time getting into the larger market because of new models or replacements for the 737 (that will likely use technology from the 787) and the 320.
 
supa7E7
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:57 am

Big jets are one of the few things China can't (yet) make for itself. It's their leading non-commodity import. So of course it is item #1 along with automobiles on their industrial radar.

To say nothing of military equipment.

Quoting David31998 (Reply 17):
I would never buy electronics, appliances, ... from a Chinese company.

WTF are you saying..? Almost everything Sony makes for example is made in China. Appliances... ever heard of Maytag? That's a Chinese company now. Even you yourself may be an employee of a Chinese company in the future. Then will you will be insulting yourself. Much as Chrysler workers are employees of a German company...
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
TPASXM787
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:16 am

Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 18):
Appliances... ever heard of Maytag? That's a Chinese company now.

IIRC niether Maytag nor Unocal was sold. The boards would not approve it. I can source it if need be.
This is the Last Stop.
 
flyingexpat
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:58 am

While I do believe maytag is not chinese owned, you will be EXTREMELY hard pressed to buy electronics without it at least being assembled in China. While I do not have any experience in a/c manufacturing facilities in China, I have seen multiple vehicle production lines and other misc. facilities in China. The quality level is constantly being improved and in many cases are cleaner and much more efficient than US/ Mexican based facilities. My bet is that it won't happen fast, but China will play a large role in a/c production in the future. It is simply too large of a market to neglect in the long run.
 
david31998
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:31 am

I did not say I would not buy products made in China (although I try to avoid doing so). I said I would not buy products made by a Chinese company.
 
Glareskin
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:26 am

Quoting David31998 (Thread starter):
3. Does this discussion by the Chinese push B and A to more quickly develop new models for this market.

Interesting that you ask this question. This makes me think of a new question: is this going to cause an a&b vs c war on this forum? Airbus and Boeing fans united against the new world... Xenophobics stand together in tough times  Big grin
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
Dougloid
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:50 am

Quoting TPASXM787 (Reply 19):
Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 18):
Appliances... ever heard of Maytag? That's a Chinese company now.

IIRC niether Maytag nor Unocal was sold. The boards would not approve it. I can source it if need be.

Supa7E7, you got this one wrong...Maytag was sold, but it was sold subject to federal approval to Whirpool, a domestic company. The Haier group, a Chinese company, made an offer but Whirlpool's was better.

Maytag HQ is about 30 miles from here.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
PavlovsDog
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:53 am

I wouldn't be surprised to see China getting in on the action on the Russian MS-21 project which sounds very promising. The two countries seem quite chummy as of late.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:49 pm

Who would buy the chinese jets,apart from China.
Unless the product proves itself with Performance & after sales.
What news on the RRJ.
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
Aleksandar
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:59 pm

Well, for me it seems that the question is not whether Chinese can make some kind of 100-120 seat airliner, but whether Chinese airlines would be patient enough to wait that model. Chinese airline market is growing fast and airlines need new planes now, so they'll go to A or B (or E if they want something smaller).
R-E-S-P-E-C-T
 
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N328KF
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Sat Sep 24, 2005 2:01 am

The big problem here is that this aircraft will be seeing EIS about the time that Airbus and Boeing are conducting their sales campaigns for their A320/737 replacements, and if the 787 is any indication, those new aircraft will be radical shifts as well.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
david31998
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Sat Sep 24, 2005 2:20 am

Of course, the Chinese are aware that 737/320 replacements are coming. They very much want to enter this market within the next 20 years, but recognize that developing a competitive model will be almost impossible considering the advanced technology of the 737/320 replacements and the well established service and training facilities by B&A. China has at best an uneven record in development of their own civilian and military aircraft.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Sat Sep 24, 2005 2:25 am

Quoting HKGKaiTak (Reply 15):
What's the bet they'll not only get it right first time but be able to offer a great aircraft at lower costs than either A or B?

I will bet any amount of money they won't "get it right the first time" as I've yet to buy anything from China that was "right the first time."
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
mrocktor
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Sat Sep 24, 2005 2:39 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
I will bet any amount of money they won't "get it right the first time" as I've yet to buy anything from China that was "right the first time."

They are going to learn from the ARJ-21, but I agree that it will not be enough to develop a viable 737/A32X competitor for the global market (Russia has a lot more experience and they have trouble with this still). On the other hand, their internal market for the type will be so large they are likely not to be worried about going global at this point.

mrocktor
 
Dougloid
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Sat Sep 24, 2005 2:43 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
Quoting HKGKaiTak (Reply 15):
What's the bet they'll not only get it right first time but be able to offer a great aircraft at lower costs than either A or B?

I will bet any amount of money they won't "get it right the first time" as I've yet to buy anything from China that was "right the first time."

That's a misinformed view.

The "not getting it right the first time" may be when they tried to reverse engineer the 707...but they did build a batch of MD80s that were as good as anything made in Long Beach, because the DAC inspectors signed off on everything. They make some pretty good medium sized turboprop transports as well.

They now have the technology and facilities-the only thing lacking is the direction but make no mistake-they can and will do it cheaper and maybe better.

Here's the source.

http://www.aerospace-technology.com/projects/arj21/arj211.html
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
david31998
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Sat Sep 24, 2005 5:20 am

The Chinese government recently announced orders from Chinese airlines for the ARJ-21:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-09/22/content_3528472.htm

You should be aware that Xinhua is an official communist party press outlet. I have traveled expensively in China for the past 10 years. Based on my experiences there, I have no confidence in quality control, published test results, etc. from Chinese companies or the government. If you don't believe me, consider how China handled the SARS outbreak a couple of years ago: "no problem, no threat, no big deal..." So, I agree with some of the other posts in this thread; I do not buy from Chinese companies. And until the Chinese government understands the concept of transparency in decision-making, I will not fly on a Chinese built plane.
 
Dougloid
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Sat Sep 24, 2005 9:29 pm

Quoting David31998 (Reply 32):
I have no confidence in quality control, published test results, etc. from Chinese companies or the government. If you don't believe me, consider how China handled the SARS outbreak a couple of years ago: "no problem, no threat, no big deal..."

Tell me true....what's public health have to do with quality control of manufactured products? I mean, maybe I'm a little misguided but I don't see any connection unless it's guilt by association-which is, as you know, a discredited principle.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
david31998
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RE: Chinese Competition Against 737 And 320

Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:37 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 33):
what's public health have to do with quality control of manufactured products? I mean, maybe I'm a little misguided but I don't see any connection unless it's guilt by association-which is, as you know, a discredited principle.

The point is that standard operating procedure in China is to cover up anything that can be considered bad news. Government officials, business employees, reporters, (even health care workers) are rewarded for good things that happen under their watch. If you are in a position of authority and something within your area of responsibility is not good, then do anything you can to cover up the problem, and certainly never admit anything is wrong. Even if the problem is not your fault, if something bad is discovered your in big trouble. In short, style is often more important than substance. I could cite 100 examples that I witnessed in China, but this is getting too far off the point. I am simply saying that Chinese companies do not have a good record of quality control, and at this point I do not trust Chinese made aircraft or any internal reports concerning their safety.

Cheers,
David

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