kaitak744
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QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:11 am

I have seen this in MANY threads, and it gets annoying.

With all respect, to all of you people who think that if QF (or BA) orders the 777-200LR, that they will cancel their one-stop LHR-SYD, you are wrong.

IF QF or BA orders the -200LR, it will be a daily non-stop IN ADDITION to their 3-4x daily one-stops. While doing the one-stop, they also pick up passengers along the way and are able to carry some significant cargo. Therefore, it is too profitable and will never end. The non-stop flight will simply be a frequency increase and attract higher paying business travelers who need a quick travel time. Same goes for SQ A340-500 SIN-LAX/EWR.
 
blsbls99
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:26 am

Never seems like a long long long time.
319 320 313 722 732 733 735 73G 738 739 742 752 763 772 CRJ D9S ERJ EMB L10 M88 M90 SF3 AT4
 
Sydscott
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:12 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Thread starter):
IF QF or BA orders the -200LR, it will be a daily non-stop IN ADDITION to their 3-4x daily one-stops

Technically QF doesn't have the Heathrow slots to keep up the current schedule of one stops AND add a non-stop service. So from that point of view you are incorrect.
 
TWA902fly
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:22 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 2):
Technically QF doesn't have the Heathrow slots to keep up the current schedule of one stops AND add a non-stop service. So from that point of view you are incorrect.

What happened to that BAe 146 they used on LHR-MAN to hold their slots? did they allocate those slots to a new route?

'902
life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
 
kaitak744
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:27 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 2):
Technically QF doesn't have the Heathrow slots to keep up the current schedule of one stops AND add a non-stop service. So from that point of view you are incorrect.

Well, with T5, there is a posibility. And if not, they will just slash one of the one-stops. Opposed to what everyone is saying (killing all the one-stops).
 
mNeo
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:38 am

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 3):
What happened to that BAe 146 they used on LHR-MAN to hold their slots? did they allocate those slots to a new route?

I belive it is still there beacause i saw a QF flight to MAN when i was at T4 during the summer.

Does anyone have any pictures, is the plane in QF livery, and can the flight be booked?
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flyinghighboy
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 11:39 am

aren't they putting flights via China to LHR as well?
 
mainMAN
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 11:59 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Thread starter):
I have seen this in MANY threads, and it gets annoying.

With all respect, to all of you people who think that if QF (or BA) orders the 777-200LR, that they will cancel their one-stop LHR-SYD, you are wrong.

IF QF or BA orders the -200LR, it will be a daily non-stop IN ADDITION to their 3-4x daily one-stops. While doing the one-stop, they also pick up passengers along the way and are able to carry some significant cargo. Therefore, it is too profitable and will never end. The non-stop flight will simply be a frequency increase and attract higher paying business travelers who need a quick travel time. Same goes for SQ A340-500 SIN-LAX/EWR.

The UK to Australia/New Zealand market is perhaps the last remaining major market where one-stop services are necessary, and only because of range constraints on the aircraft which are currently available.

There's no reason at all why all services from LON to SYD and MEL shouldn't eventually become non-stop. It's more economically viable (and profitable) to fly non-stop services.
 
antares
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:25 pm

Non-stops will come and they will be successful, unless the fuel crisis gets totally out of control.

However a non-stop from just Sydney is still a one-stop for someone from Melbourne (and a very inconvenient one at that) and a total nonsense for someone from Perth and so forth.

There will have to be a place in the timetable to readily feed onward traffic to London over Singapore or other alternatives.

An important issue is how Qantas gets more capacity into London in the next decade since not even four dailies with an A380 will cope with even modest growth over that period.

My thought is that Qantas will make a move on starting flights to Stanstead, and do its level best to persuade BA (probably unsuccessfully) to give up its own flights to Australia for an attractive code-share deal.

It will face a very difficult situation in respect to Dubai, which may well evolve into an even more competitive hub feeding into ALL of Europe without backtracking, and serving on a daily or multi-daily basis all of the capital city gateways except perhaps Darwin and Hobart.

We should gain fresh insights into the QF thinking if it sticks to the current timetable for a decision on medium sized jets by around mid November.

Antares
 
ikramerica
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:28 pm

Not sure which threads said that ALL one-stops would be changed (never saw that), but that won't happen. My guess is it would start with only 1 non-stop, then as the idea of a non-stop is welcomed, it could eventually dwindle to 1 remaining one-stop, possibly two if it goes through a different intermediate city.

Remember, nobody thought non-stop across the pacific would be popular and that stops in HNL and NRT would remain, but now there are plenty of non-stops, and very few stops in HNL or NRT if the route is short enough to fly non-stop with other equipment.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
antares
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:50 pm

That's a very valid observation. However with due respects to any South Pacific island members, Nadi, Pago Pago and even Honolulu never commanded the crucial economic/business importance attached to intermediate stops between Australia and London via Asia.

The shortage of slots in London is a real constraint but, all of that taken into account, the availability of a profitable jet for non-stop services will inevitably see this development take place.

I'm not sure about the timing. If we ever get a breakthrough in viable supersonic technology, and it delivers shorter times even with one or more tech-stops, the dictum that time is money will quite possibly see the Son or Daughter of Concorde carve up the market as well. But not in my time, that's for sure.

Antares
 
Trolley Dolley
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:55 pm

I don't see QF pulling out of the stopping service totally.

1) The length of the flight is such that the removal of a mid point stop doesn't consititute a significant journey saving time. eg LON-SIN direct is about 13 hours, compared to about 17 hours (including ground time) via the Middle East. The 4 hours represents about a 25% drop in journey time.

A couple of hours or so saved on a 23 hour trip is not as big a saving, proportionately- less than 10%. Either way, it's still a very long time to spend in an airline cabin.

2) For all the talk of business travellers and those who want to go direct, don't forget the population is aging. In my experience as a travel agent, there still is a demand for a stopover in the long journey for those who simply would not want to fly all that way for 20+hours in one go.

2) I see market fragmentation, where the A380's would operate in a high density economy service for the price sensitive market with a stop, while the 777's would service the time sensitive premium market. This is similar to what's happening on the Atlantic market with the 737/320 business class jets.

3) Because of the flight times, time difference and airport curfews, there are few viable opportunities for departures ex LON back to Australia that would be attractive to the premium market. This limits a full conversion to non-stop services.

4) As already mentioned, SIN is a valuable hub for feeding pax into other Australian ports that lack the volumes of premium traffic to support nonstops.
 
Sydscott
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:09 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):
Remember, nobody thought non-stop across the pacific would be popular and that stops in HNL and NRT would remain,

Pan Am didn't think that.  Smile

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 3):
What happened to that BAe 146 they used on LHR-MAN to hold their slots? did they allocate those slots to a new route?

My understanding was that these would be gradually used by the LHR-HKG services as they step up to daily services.

Quoting Antares (Reply 8):
My thought is that Qantas will make a move on starting flights to Stanstead

Why not Gatwick??
 
antares
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 4:30 pm

Sydscott,

There is a view in the UK that a better demographic is served by Stanstead, and, there is more likelihood of getting slots there.

I can't vouch for that being right, but I do remember a luncheon at which Barbara Cassani, the CEO of Go told the pin striped congregation that she found a rich market existed among business travellers who regarded getting to Heathrow from their semi rural stockbroker belt estate a 'real bore' or something to that effect.

Haven't used Gatwick myself for ages.

Now if they could just add about 3000 metres to London City and rotate it a few degrees we'd have a really attractive place for business travellers.

Antares
 
Leej
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:25 pm

Hang on a minute - on another thread somewhere the Kangaroo route is quoted as being a loss maker for BA (assume QF as well) - so where is all this alternative talk of profitability coming from?
 
antares
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:48 pm

Leej,

It comes from the public record, not the tripe that gets posted here by some people who don't read the annual reports, or the releases filed on the stock exchange, or explore the investor relations section of airline web sites.

Why would you assume anything, with so much accurate information a few Googles away?

Antares
 
whitehatter
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:14 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 8):
Non-stops will come and they will be successful, unless the fuel crisis gets totally out of control.

Please explain how you propose QF and BA can rewrite the economics of the route.

It is already a poor performer with regard to profit, and taking what premium traffic there is away from the existing one stoppers will only drive profits down.

It may attract Emirates and Singapore Airlines premium travellers but will still suffer fom the Concorde syndrome. Namely if you want to travel in a certain manner then you have to be prepared to carry the fuel to do so and charge accordingly. A non-stop flight from SYD to LHR (for instance, and let's not even get into winds at this stage) has to carry ALL the fuel it needs to fly the last hour into LHR all the way from SYD, and the same for all the preceding hours. You carry fuel to carry fuel to carry fuel...


With current engines and airframes it may be technically feasible, but economically it is dead in the water. All it would do is dilute traffic yields from other services, and certainly never generate any new passengers. People flying that route in F and C are ALREADY flying it.

There is too much wishful thinking going on here, which cold hard economic fact does not justify.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
vs773er
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:21 pm

Qantas @ STN!?

If the market was that strong there then surely other flag carriers would follow suit. Stn has a lack of major flag carriers which gives way nicely to lcc's and holiday charters. Surley the potential and demagraphic has been analysed by the majors and ruled out - Or is it currently the airport's capacity which is holding up the process? Are we to see a dramatic increase in Majors as well as lcc's and regionals if stansted does open a 2nd runway?
Communicating. Keeping up foreign relations...
 
RichardJF
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:32 pm

Quoting Leej (Reply 14):
Hang on a minute - on another thread somewhere the Kangaroo route is quoted as being a loss maker for BA (assume QF as well) - so where is all this alternative talk of profitability coming from?

That's what I figure.
Even on a nonstop I fail to see how you could charge that much more than EK up front although there is good PR value for QF.
On any rational basis QF 4 times a day into Heathrow seems mad.
On a route like that all the hub airlines have a superior business case CX,SQ,MH,TG,EK.
Growth that comes on the Kangaroo route from Europeans going to Australia will be captured almost completely by the likes of EK going from Glasgow to Melbourne, Munich to Brisbane, Birmingham to Sydney. So the BA/QF link at LHR is not worth anything.

Furthermore
20 years down the track when the planes can very easily and economically make the distance at mach 2 or 3 and it takes 8-10 hours to get to London at that point sure it makes good sense. In the mean time why tie up 10-12 planes making practically nothing.
 
trekster
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:41 pm

Quoting MNeo (Reply 5):
Does anyone have any pictures, is the plane in QF livery, and can the flight be booked

Naa, would be good if it was though

Here is the plane that runs the QF flt


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © TFSPhoto

Where does the time go???
 
richardw
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:56 pm

QF and BA should do a codeshare deal where QF fly from Australia to BKK, HKG, SIN and BA fly from UK to BKK, HKG, SIN.
 
RichardJF
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 11:23 pm

Quoting Richardw (Reply 20):
QF and BA should do a codeshare deal where QF fly from Australia to BKK, HKG, SIN and BA fly from UK to BKK, HKG, SIN.

That's probably a good idea plus I would run a 777ULR daily from SYD.
 
trent900
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Wed Sep 28, 2005 11:50 pm

Would a non-stop LHR - SYD cost more if these carriers cut all one-stop flights? There are alot of people out there (including me) that simply can not afford current 'business class' fares. Airlines must remember this so they do not loose economy passengers to other airlines offering cheaper one-stop flights.

D.
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 1:06 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 16):
It is already a poor performer with regard to profit, and taking what premium traffic there is away from the existing one stoppers will only drive profits down.

Figures to back up your statement would be appreciated. Don't give me a "compared to such and such route" either. Just the SYD-LHR (via wherever)return.

I find your comments surprising because you would think that the frequency on the route, which QF have increased, would have decreased.

Quoting Trent900 (Reply 22):
Would a non-stop LHR - SYD cost more if these carriers cut all one-stop flights? There are alot of people out there (including me) that simply can not afford current 'business class' fares. Airlines must remember this so they do not loose economy passengers to other airlines offering cheaper one-stop flights.

It won't happen that one stop flights will be cut. It is possible that you will see a niche market non-stop flight begin if, and only if, there is a market for it. The one stop flights are here to stay for the forseeable future.

Cheers,

Trent.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
ikramerica
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 1:08 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 16):
A non-stop flight from SYD to LHR (for instance, and let's not even get into winds at this stage) has to carry ALL the fuel it needs to fly the last hour into LHR all the way from SYD, and the same for all the preceding hours. You carry fuel to carry fuel to carry fuel...

I hear this wonderful argument all the time.

it must explain why the 747 never became popular, why we never switched to non-stops across the atlantic and the pacific, why nobody wants to fly their planes non-stop across the US, or europe to asia. After all, you have to carry more fuel to get those planes that far, but if you stopped along the way, you'd have to carry less. No wonder the 747 was such a failure. And the 772ER, and the DC8, and the 707, and the A340, and the DC10, and now the 773ER, etc. ... Big grin
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
antares
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 6:48 am

Whitehatter,

I certainly agree about the amount of wishful thinking on this forum in general.

Delusional is the word that comes to mind.

My reference to non-stops on the kangaroo route was a belief that it time it will happen, but how much time, I'm not sure. In rational business, and the kangaroo route majors are remarkably rational and successful if compared to the industry as a whole, a sound business case for a non-stop service may be taken up sooner or later.

If one or more of them really think they can make money with a very small number of passengers using excellent jets with operating costs that are however compromised by the extreme range and operational conditions concerned, they'll do it.

The guidance that analysts are getting over the kangaroo route is that it tracks only just a little below the average performance of Qantas as a whole.

Qantas is not yet quite as profitable as a whole as it needs to be to justify a blue chip stock investment. But it has made real progress.

I'll bet the issues and concerns that you have are the subject of the most intense and agonisingly detailed analysis in Qantas management as this very moment.

But we'll have to wait to find out what conclusions they come too, or as is often the case with Qantas, push even further into the future.

Antares
 
Sydscott
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 7:07 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 23):
I find your comments surprising because you would think that the frequency on the route, which QF have increased, would have decreased

Exactly!! If they were losing money flying the kangaroo route they wouldn't be so eager to expand it. The only time you hear of about what a poor performer it is is when the JSA comes up for renewal. But the figures can easily be manipulated to move profits from one country to another to avoid tax and make routes look less viable than they really are. American carriers, Braniff & Eastern, used to do that in Latin/South America to avoid paying hefty taxes & charges. I'll admit it is more a question of when rather than if a non-stop to London takes place, but I still haven't seen anyone in this forum make a viable financial argument for a non-stop routing yet.

Quoting Richardw (Reply 20):
QF and BA should do a codeshare deal where QF fly from Australia to BKK, HKG, SIN and BA fly from UK to BKK, HKG, SIN.

Why?? The revenues from BA & QF flying the Kangaroo Route under the JSA are pooled and every flight is a codeshare. I don't think QF withdrawing from Heathrow is a move they would ever contemplate.
 
planesailing
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 7:25 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 24):
it must explain why the 747 never became popular, why we never switched to non-stops across the atlantic and the pacific, why nobody wants to fly their planes non-stop across the US, or europe to asia. After all, you have to carry more fuel to get those planes that far, but if you stopped along the way, you'd have to carry less. No wonder the 747 was such a failure. And the 772ER, and the DC8, and the 707, and the A340, and the DC10, and now the 773ER, etc. ...

Surely the fuel burn on climb out for continuing stops would soon negate any savings made for carrying less fuel?
 
antares
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 7:48 am

Planesailing,

On the basis of second hand reports from the July visit and briefing by the Worldliner, the answer is that per equivalent unit of payload, a 777-300ER flying to London via a stop in China will burn less fuel than a 777-200LR flying the route non-stop.

We asked a technical media journalist to ask this question, framed on the basis that the optimum non-stop route is fairly close to optimal one-stop routing over Hong Kong or Shanghai.

Fuel costs are ugly as we all know. Whether or not the differential, which Boeing did not specify, is sufficiently different to wreck the sums for the non-stop service, is therefore unclear.

I'm sure the fuel burned in landing, taxiing and then takeing off again is significant, but it may be nothing like as signlifcant as carry tons of the stuff for 18 hours from Sydney just to use in the final 90-120 minutes plus reserves and the like.

Even if the jet filed for Warsaw and then 'diverted' to London to crib on the fuel needed, that ploy is unlikely to look very smart in the teeth of a typical northern winter flying the high route over Siberia.

I think non-stops will take place on the route westbound for the philosphical reason that I don't believe it is technologically impossible. The issue is whether it is commercially sustainable or justifiable (two different things) in the current enviroment with the -200 LR.

Antares
 
Slarty
Posts: 302
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 8:01 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 28):
I'm sure the fuel burned in landing, taxiing and then takeing off again is significant, but it may be nothing like as signlifcant as carry tons of the stuff for 18 hours from Sydney just to use in the final 90-120 minutes plus reserves and the like.

But the problem with this argument is the inductive ...

Why are 16 hour flights more popular?
Why are 15 hour flights more popular?
Why are 14 hour flights more popular?
Why are 13 hour flights more popular?
...
Why are 9 hour flights more popular?
...
Why are 6 hour flights more popular?
...

All of these flights had the requirement for the "final 90-120 minutes plus reserves and the like" ... or something suitable, and yet technology/efficiency has moved on, while demand apparently increases.
 
RichardJF
Posts: 565
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2001 7:07 pm

RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 8:39 am

QF trying to defend a market like the Kangaroo route is generally a disasterous strategy. Better to treat London as a niche idea and look for small high value cities in Europe that could sustain some long haul flights. Is anybody running longhaul out of Oslo, Geneva and so on. If your running OSL-HKG 4 times per week and nobody else is doing it your probably charging heaps.
 
Trolley Dolley
Posts: 548
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 9:13 am

Richard JF. London as a "niche market"? Defending it is "disasterous". Why? These suggestions, in my opinion, beggar belief.

The UK is one of the biggest inbound market for Australian tourism, there are huge economic, cultural and family ties between the two nations and if it was loosing as much money as they've been saying over the years, why keep throwing money at the route, including the massive investment in A380's and paying record prices for slots at LHR?

It is a key market to QF that contributes a substaintial portion of its revenues. With the exception of FRA, QF has clearly left the rest of Europe to other players and it's chosen to focus on a market that it knows best and performs well in.
 
pixuk
Posts: 305
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:44 am

RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Thu Sep 29, 2005 9:14 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 4):
Well, with T5, there is a posibility.

Terminal 5 won't bring any more slots, just more gates. For LHR to get more slots, it'll take either another runway or increased night flights.

STN would never be taken seriously by the business market, so I can't see QF flying out of there. LGW is the only real alternative to LHR, but even then it's still dawbed with the Bucket & Spade brush. One of the reasons slots have changed hands for stupid amounts of cash is because LHR attracts the premium cabin passengers, and that's were the profit is.

Pete
 
RichardJF
Posts: 565
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2001 7:07 pm

RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Fri Sep 30, 2005 10:23 pm

Quoting Trolley Dolley (Reply 31):
The UK is one of the biggest inbound market for Australian tourism, there are huge economic, cultural and family ties between the two nations and if it was loosing as much money as they've been saying over the years, why keep throwing money at the route, including the massive investment in A380's and paying record prices for slots at LHR?

QF may be doing OK now but you really have to look at the whole thing 5-6 years out. How many more cities in the UK/Ireland alone will EK fly to. Cardiff, possibly Newcastle, Stansted, Edinburgh, Dublin. And it's a good idea.
Maurice Flanaghan if I'm right started at BOAC back in 1953 and looks like he's having an absolute ball sticking it to BA, QF and SQ. The single hub airlines are in such a strong position to dominate the Kangaroo route in the medium term that QF have to adjust their strategy rather than just look at it as if having A380's puts them on level terms.
Even with the 777ULR another problem would seem to be you can't can't fill it up totally with Skybeds so you must have a lot of Y+. How attractive is that going to be paying much greater prices to knock a couple of hours off the flight for somebody in Y+. The Kangaroo route isn't in any way comparable to Concorde running CDG-JFK and LHR-JFK there was a lot of very rich people or even businessmen that are attracted to halving the time on the Atlantic and will pay a lot for it.
The top end of the market in Australia and New Zealand is sophisticated and worldly. You only have to look at cities like Sydney,Melbourne or even Auckland. To fly to London you probably have to do something completely different. Fly via PPT-CUN-LHR or via PPT-San Juan-LHR and do it on a limited basis.
The stop off can't be exotic enough.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 4896
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RE: QF Will Never Cancel LHR-SYD One-stop!

Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:08 am

I thought QF had a spare set of slots still at LHR? Aren't they allwoed 5x daily? Just that they don't have any aircraft to operate these additional flights.

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