loisencroach
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Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 3:41 pm

This has probably been discussed many times before, or maybe not.

Does anybody else see WN moving into GSO? I don't know too much about the area except that the airport only has two concourses (yes? undercapacity? overcapacity?), isn't too much smaller than CLT in terms of metropolitan area, and would compete directly with US/HP @ CLT? Smart move? Dumb move? Feasible?

Go easy on me...just seeking info and thoughts.
 
vegasplanes
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 5:04 pm

I don't know about GSO, that might deter traffic away from Norfolk and RDU where WN already has ops., just a thought, not too familiar with the GSO area and how close or not to CLT and RDU.
 
FlyGuyClt
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 6:56 pm

GSO is right in the middle of RDU and CLT on I85. About 1 hour 30 or so from each if you are driving the speed limit.

Safe Flying  Smile

In my local opinion. If WN did not want to go to CLT. They should hit GSP. 1 hour 30 South of CLT. About 2 hours or so North of North Atlanta.
Florida Express, Braniff II and ......
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:38 pm

I don't know whether it would cannibalize traffic from other locations nearby. I mean, Manchester (NH) and Providence (RI) are doing fabulously, and neither has drawn away from the other. Exact same circumstances? No. Similar? Absolutely.

Chris in NH
 
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ERJ170
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:48 pm

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 3):
Exact same circumstances? No. Similar? Absolutely.

Not really...

PVD and MHT pull from 2 different locations. PVD pulls from Boston south and east.. MHT pulls from Boston north and east... and are MUCH farther apart than RDU/GSO..

GSO would definitely pull from RDU. RDU pulls from central NC, north, east and south..

Should WN go to GSO, they would pull from Central NC, north, west, and south.. their only advantage would be the western pull.

I would say look for GSO (as well as RDU) to have B6 presence before WN..
Aiming High and going far..
 
FlyGuyClt
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:14 pm

One big factor. NC does not have the population of the North East.

Safe Flying  Smile
Florida Express, Braniff II and ......
 
PVD757
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:53 pm

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 4):
PVD and MHT pull from 2 different locations. PVD pulls from Boston south and east.. MHT pulls from Boston north and east... and are MUCH farther apart than RDU/GSO..

PVD - MHT = 84 miles

not sure what RDU - GSO is but RDU - CLT is 130 miles, and if GSO is right in between, that would put it in the 65-75 miles range.

Not too much closer than PVD & MHT
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:19 pm

Quoting FlyGuyClt (Reply 5):
PVD and MHT pull from 2 different locations. PVD pulls from Boston south and east.. MHT pulls from Boston north and east... and are MUCH farther apart than RDU/GSO..

Southwest serves a market called 'Boston.' They say as much in their promotion and advertising. That they choose to do it from an airport to the north and another to the south is their smart strategy. But it works. If you drew market-area circles around PVD and MHT, the circles would at least touch...and, at best, overlap to a small degree. Another way of putting it: If you drew a market-area circle around Boston, it would touch Manchester and Providence. Don't dismiss MHT and PVD as wholely independent markets, any more than MDW and ORD would be considered wholely independent markets. Or SFO and SJC. In fact, I see SFO as being Boston, and OAK and SJC as being MHT and PVD. The essence is the same.

Chris in NH
 
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ERJ170
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:34 pm

Quoting PVD757 (Reply 6):
PVD - MHT = 84 miles

not sure what RDU - GSO is but RDU - CLT is 130 miles, and if GSO is right in between, that would put it in the 65-75 miles range.

Not too much closer than PVD & MHT

yes, but the big difference is between PVD and MHT you have several million people in an area called Boston..

Between GSO and RDU you have several farms and a few thousand people..

So WN can pull a lot more people and virtually split them between PVD and MHT in a north-south fashion..

The same cannot be said for RDU-GSO..

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 7):
Don't dismiss MHT and PVD as wholely independent markets,

MHT and PVD are a lot more independent than a comparison of RDU and GSO.. the enchachement area of PVD, MHT, BOS is much greater than any encachement you will find in the entire state of North Carolina.. let alone RDU, GSO, CLT.
Aiming High and going far..
 
PVD757
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:38 pm

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 7):
Or SFO and SJC. In fact, I see SFO as being Boston, and OAK and SJC as being MHT and PVD. The essence is the same.

Yes, but PVD and MHT can only dream of having the same levels of service as OAK and SJC...

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 8):
MHT and PVD are a lot more independent than a comparison of RDU and GSO.. the enchachement area of PVD, MHT, BOS is much greater than any encachement you will find in the entire state of North Carolina.. let alone RDU, GSO, CLT.

Point taken. I was just disputing the milage disparity that was brought up!  Smile
 
ejmmsu
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:43 pm

As a resident of the GSO catchment area, I would love to see WN.

However, FL was unable to make GSO work, and...........

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 4):
I would say look for GSO (as well as RDU) to have B6 presence before WN

With WN already at RDU, I just don't see it happening.

When Indy air goes under, there will be no more low fares to be had at GSO.
"If the facts do not conform to the theory, they will have to be disposed of"
 
cltguy
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:49 pm

SWA is much more likely to serve CLT than GSO...their CEO has already said as much. The problem right now is that we are are tight on gate space.

Since SWA already serves RDU, that pretty much knocks GSO out of the picture. I will say though that if SWA had chosen to serve GSO instead of RDU....then they likely would not have served either RDU or CLT.

Honestly I don't think that GSO has the parking available right now to effectively serve SWA. If SWA were to serve GSO they would demand more parking be built.

CLT just completed a 3,000 space parking deck 6 months ago and their 20,000 parking spaces are still running at 90%+ full. They have already embarked on another 3,000 space parking deck.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Wed Sep 28, 2005 11:11 pm

I still say that B6 will serve GSO and probably do very well. The problem with GSO is that even though they have more people than the RDU area, the RDU area has a bigger business/leisure traffic flow than GSO. It makes it a bit more appealing over GSO, but I think that GSO is ripe for an airline to come in and open up some routes..
Aiming High and going far..
 
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FlyPIJets
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 4:28 am

As deserving as GSO is of service from WN, B6, FL, or F9 I don't think it would bee a good move on WN's part to start service to GSO.

RDU serves 40% - 50% of North Carolina's O & D traffic. CLT serves 30% - 35% and GSO 15% - 20%. It is true that GSO is "in between" RDU and CLT - but - RDU (look at a map) is in the center of the state. (As good as just about any place can be). GSO would draw some RDU pax, but much less likely to draw from Fayetteville, Rocky Mount, Wilson or even Wilmington.

If WN were to serve GSO, that would only shift pax from RDU to GSO, no real "new" demand. That, in turn would serve to lower yield at RDU.

Also, Wake County, the county Raleigh is in, is in the top 5% of counties in the country for household income (And I think is the only county in NC in that percentile). People living in the Raleigh area are young, have money and fly. That's not to disparage any other location, but, it is an indication that RTP people are going to be somewhat less likely to travel to GSO or CLT to get a cheap seat.
Rex Kramer: Get that finger out of your ear! You don't know where that finger's been!
 
N1120A
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 4:43 am

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 7):
Or SFO and SJC. In fact, I see SFO as being Boston, and OAK and SJC as being MHT and PVD. The essence is the same.

Not at all. While WN does serve San Fransisco from SJC and OAK, they each have their own massive cachement areas. San Jose has nearly 200,000 more people living in the city proper than San Fransisco, and that doesn't include Santa Clara. Oakland has 400,000 of its own, plus all of the East Bay, including Berkeley. There is a major difference here.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
deltairlines
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 4:53 am

Here are my thoughts:

B6 will be entering with the E190s sometime within the next 3 years. Service will be to BOS, JFK, and Florida (not sure which cities...I'd expect FLL and MCO if they have space down there).

Southwest has a chance of coming in. Gates will be opening up when (a) DH goes Ch. 7 (that's one gate) and when DL moves to North Concourse (opens up 3 gates). As of today, there isn't any room for WN, but there will be in about 6 months. The one drawback is RDU being right down I-40. It's about an hour and a half drive, and RDU does take in people from the Triad (I have several friends here that do drive down to RDU to take Southwest). This would cut into the RDU base; MHT and PVD are no where even close. As it's been said, both airports serve Boston, which is far larger than RDU and the Triad combined and can support both airports (not to mention the traffic in BOS can mean it takes 2.5 hours to drive MHT-PVD...I've experienced it before).

As for new airlines serving GSO, it's been rumoured that 2 are looking at GSO. I'd have to say B6 is one of them, and I wouldn't be shocked if NK were the other. Either way, I'd say it's probably 90% you'll see B6 at GSO within 3 years, maybe 30-40% of WN coming in.

Jeff
 
gsoflyer
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 6:44 am

Ok....
RDU is situated between Raleigh and Durham
GSO is situated between Greensboro and Winston-Salem and North of High Point
CLT is on the Gastonia side of Charlotte

GSO is in a metro of 1.4 million
RDU is in a metro of 1.3 million
CLT is in a metro of 1.6 million

RDU technically serves Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Fayetteville, Wilmington and eastern NC and southern VA.
GSO technically serves Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Winston-Salem, Danville, Roanoke, and NE and Central mountains
CLT technically could serve Charlotte, Rock Hill, Gastonia, Hickory, Kannapolis and south central NC and north central SC ... possibly Columbia before Greenville-Spartanburg.

The deal is, WN has publically stated GSO will be served. That was back when they chose RDU over GSO. They did the same thing when RIC when they chose Norfolk over them.

GSO has the parking. GSO has 8 new gates. GSO can pull from RDU and CLT. GSO also has the lowest landing fees.

Guilford County is also one of the top counties in the country where money is... which is why there are 3 ferrari dealerships, a rolls royce, 2 lamborghini, bentley, etc. And why is GSO sitting at 15-25% of the state's O&D traffic? Primarily because of cheap flights elsewhere, not because demand isn't here.

RDU is in the center of the state, but if you look at the state in a distribution population map, GSO is in the center. Which is why GSO was the bigger airport in the 80s.

As for JetBlue here, I'd be willing to bet that there will be new airline service here within a year.
 
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FlyPIJets
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 7:52 am

Quoting Gsoflyer (Reply 16):
RDU technically serves ...and eastern NC and southern VA.

that's a pretty large area with a lot of people are willing to drive to get to an airport. why would they want to drive further to GSO?

Quoting Gsoflyer (Reply 16):
GSO technically serves ..., Danville, Roanoke, ...

Technically, no they don't. From Danville, its no harder to get to RDU than GSO. And ROA is my old hometown, I know for a fact Roanoker's now drive to RDU (or pay ROA prices, which really aren't that bad.)

Quoting Gsoflyer (Reply 16):
The deal is, WN has publically stated GSO will be served. That was back when they chose RDU over GSO.

that was before they came to NC. Then they came to RDU. Also, what, 7 years ago, times have changed.

Quoting Gsoflyer (Reply 16):
Guilford County is also one of the top counties in the country where money is... which is why there are 3 ferrari dealerships, a rolls royce, 2 lamborghini, bentley, etc.

A few facts:

Population - Guilford County= 433,789 Wake = 695,681 (2003 census est.)
Household income - Guilford = $42,618 Wake = $54,988 (2000 census)
Per Cap income - Guilford = $23,340 Wake = $27,004 (2000 census)

Wake has a bigger population and they all earn more money. Glad you have a few car dealerships.

The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area is one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country.

Quoting Gsoflyer (Reply 16):
And why is GSO sitting at 15-25% of the state's O&D traffic? Primarily because of cheap flights elsewhere, not because demand isn't here.

RDU is in the center of the state, but if you look at the state in a distribution population map, GSO is in the center. Which is why GSO was the bigger airport in the 80s.

In the 80's!?! It's 2005! Welcome to the new century!

Look, if you run an airline, you want to go where the yield is. Right now, between RDU and GSO, RDU is the better choice. SWA thought so.

That's not to imply GSO is some backwater. It isn't. But, where is the value for WN if they serve both GSO and RDU? How would they be better off moving to GSO?
Rex Kramer: Get that finger out of your ear! You don't know where that finger's been!
 
uncgso
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 8:27 am

I think WN would make a killing in GSO....WN as well as any other airline will make $$ outta RDU regardless of who serves GSO....it just seems to be the nature of that region (the Triangle)....the only passengers they would lose are the ones that now drive from the Triad to RDU to catch WN....but they would gain some as well once they had people from CLT, ROA, DAN, HKY, and even AVL coming to GSO for a flight....and as far as the parking goes...plans are being made for a new 2000 space deck adjacent to the current one which will serve the new North concourse expansion....

as far as other airlines looking here....what is the possibility of G4 to SFB? NK would be awesome too....
 
gsoflyer
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 8:47 am

The airlines i've heard are JetBlue and Spirit..... nothing about Allegiant, and to be honest, I know nothing about them.

I know Airtran had good capacity out of here, but they follow the money. If they can get the same passenger revenue out of an airport giving subsidies, then capitalism rules. I for one hated flying them.

Shuttle America had good loads out of here before they folded into an express carrier.

WN serving RDU would still serve half the state's population regardless of them adding CLT, GSO or GSP.
 
jetdeltamsy
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 10:33 am

Continental tried to hub at GSO. It didn't work out. Perhaps the business climate just isn't enough to support the service.
Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
HPRamper
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 11:00 am

Quoting Ejmmsu (Reply 10):
When Indy air goes under, there will be no more low fares to be had at GSO.

Yes there will...Oh wait, I forgot...everyone thinks AWA is turning into US, not the opposite. My bad.
 
gsoflyer
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 11:11 am

Quote:
Continental tried to hub at GSO. It didn't work out. Perhaps the business climate just isn't enough to support the service.

And that myth is that it was Greensboro's fault. GSO gave the good O&D numbers for that, pulled heavily from ROA, CLT, and RDU for it. Fares were cheap, loads were fine and it would have worked if it wasn't for incompetency of CO management. I mean, 5 flights a day from GSO to TOL on a 737? Come on, US Air annd Delta rarely run mainline there.

CO Lite cannot be blamed on GSO. That's like blaming CLT for US Airways going into bankruptcy.... that's just silly.
 
ejmmsu
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 11:12 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 22):

Well, it still costs $430 to fly GSO-DFW on US , so they havn't become an LCC yet. They can call themselves that........ but the fares simply don't match at GSO.
"If the facts do not conform to the theory, they will have to be disposed of"
 
gsoflyer
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 11:13 am

Also, to point out, using a failed hub to note.... RDU serves well even though American and Midway had failed hubs there. Nashville does well even though they have a failed American hub there.

And the list can go on.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 11:20 am

Quoting Gsoflyer (Reply 25):
RDU serves well even though American and Midway had failed hubs there.

American did not have a failed hub. American moved ops to a better location (Miami). A failed hub would be one in which they pulled completely out and only left hub flights.. that only happened recently.. almost 10 years after the fact.

The JI hub did well, but 9/11 was the downfall of JI.. not RDU.
Aiming High and going far..
 
gsoflyer
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 11:53 am

Quote:
American did not have a failed hub. American moved ops to a better location (Miami). A failed hub would be one in which they pulled completely out and only left hub flights.. that only happened recently.. almost 10 years after the fact.

The JI hub did well, but 9/11 was the downfall of JI.. not RDU.

That is exactly my point ERJ, failing hubs or pulled out hubs more often than not have to do with the airline than the airport or area.

Geez, what is it with everyone misunderstanding my points :-/
 
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ERJ170
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 7:28 pm

Isn't/wasn't GSO supposed to be a mini-hub for Comair? Has those plans changed?
Aiming High and going far..
 
cltguy
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Thu Sep 29, 2005 11:13 pm

GSOflyer...what are the current landing fees for GSO?
 
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jetpixx
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Fri Sep 30, 2005 2:47 am

I say bring back Continental Lite!  Smile
ABE, BIL, BOS, BUF, CAE, CAK, CHS, CLE, CLT, CVG, DAY, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, GSO, IAD, IAH, IND, ISP, JAX, JFK, LAS, LGA, M57, MDW, MEM, MHT, MIA, MKE, MLB, MSO, MSP, OMA, ORD, PBI, PHL, PIT, PVD, RDU, SEA, SFO, SLC, SJU, STL, SYR, TLH, TMB, TUL, YVR
 
kfllspotter
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Fri Sep 30, 2005 3:18 am

Now living in GSO, and being exactly 1.5 mile from the threshold of runway 23, I watch the listen to the traffic go in and out of GSO all day. With the new FedEx development, and the rate GSO is trying to pick up the usage of the airport (It's gone as far as commercials asking them to "Fly PTI", I’m sure if WN, B6, or anyone who demanded development, I’m sure they'd be more then happy to develop to their needs, or wants to get more usage out of the airport. Also- People who live in GSO and the surrounding area only go to RDU because fares out of GSO range from 150$-250$ and fares out of RDU, if reserved early enough, are only about 60$ on WN (I know this for a fact since in the past months, I've used WN out of RDU about 5-6 times only because of the cheaper fares). If WN were to move into GSO, they'd make more of a killing. If they moved into both CLT and GSO, they'd have the Carolinas, and a lot of Virginia. Many people here commute to jobs in Virginia since the border is so close, I’m sure many would be willing to also make a short hop to GSO to use the airport. IMO- Southwest should consider a move into GSO, as well as many other airlines should since the development in the triad area is huge. Just my 2c...
 
bcbhokie
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:28 am

Looking at the extended pull for a hypothetical GSO flight... GSO still pulls heavily from the ROA market. Sure, ROA prices are tolerable, but only if I'm not the one paying for the ticket  Smile For past trips I've driven all the way to CRW, IAD, CLT, or (most commonly) GSO. GSO is the most convenient alternate airport for ROA and will become even more convenient someday when they fix US 220, the road connecting the two cities. I can't tell you the number of times I've flown a Dash-8 from GSO to CLT just to save $100 on a ticket over driving to CLT directly, or $200 over ROA prices...

The problem for WN is that travelers from ROA travel in small numbers to a bunch of destinations, and WN doesn't really have a strong hub system they could feed traffic into. Point to point works great for larger cities, but when you start looking at a market like Roanoke/Greensboro you need a strong hub system for connecting flights.

Ben
 
cltguy
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Sat Oct 01, 2005 2:34 am

Does anyone know what the current landing fees are in GSO?
 
gsoflyer
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Sat Oct 01, 2005 4:10 am

Cltguy,

I am waiting for an email back from the airport authority on landing fees since they are public information.

The reason I said lowest is because of a Triad Business Journal article last month saying that Hickory and Kinston (I think) had the lowest landing fees in the state, but GSO had the lowest of a 1+ million area airport in the SE.
 
ScottB
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RE: Southwest...Greensboro A Smart Move?

Sat Oct 01, 2005 4:33 am

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 25):
The JI hub did well, but 9/11 was the downfall of JI.. not RDU.

That's a bit of revisionist history; Midway (II) filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection on August 13, 2001 -- over 4 weeks before September 11. JI had overexpanded and had too many high-cost RJ's in its fleet; the bankruptcy of JI should have been an indication of what was likely to happen to Independence Air.

To go back on topic, I don't doubt that Southwest could make money in GSO -- with PHL, BWI, TPA, MCO, and MDW as destinations, GSO could easily support 20 daily departures in the medium term. I just think Southwest has had bigger fish to fry in the past couple of years, what with PHL going from zero to fifty-plus departures in one year, dramatic growth at MDW, entering PIT, etc. Even considering its proximity to RDU, I'd be surprised if WN weren't there before 2010.

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