TL8490
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Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 3:19 am

I have been reading all of the posts and have been talking to a few friends who work for Delta and more and more it does not appear that Comair is a part of any plans for Delta. ASA seems to be taking over a lot of the flying along with Chautauqua. In addition, Delta talked about returning 50 regional jets to leasors. While I realize this is not their entire fleet it does seem to be very substantial...Any Thoughts??
 
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litz
Posts: 1884
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:27 am

Comair and ASA's costs are astronomical ... both the cost of operations of the planes themsevles, and the cost of the personnel ...

ASA has been taken care of via sale-to-Skywest (I would expect to see major labor cost changes under new ownership) ...

Comair ... now that's another story ... expect to see MAJOR cost reductions in salaries under the bankruptcy court's supervision, and major fleet reductions or transformations.

Gone will be the high-lease-cost CRJ's, probably replaced with much more reasonably priced E170/E190, if anything; mother DL may just reduce some of those routes right out of DCI and back into Mainline.

This does beg a related question - where on earth are all these CRJ's gonna go?

It's pretty much a given fact that both DCI and Northwest's Pinnacle operation are going to pretty drastically shrink.

That's a lot of little, expensive-to-operate, airplanes that will be idled.

Is there a secondary market (other countries, or perhaps rehab to corporate jets?) for these little planes?

- litz
 
CRJ900
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:19 am

Quoting Litz (Reply 1):
Gone will be the high-lease-cost CRJ's, probably replaced with much more reasonably priced E170/E190,

I thought it was the other way around, that the myriads of CRJs were cheap to lease while the much-hyped E170/190s were expensive being new and in greater demand... ?
Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
 
N766UA
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:38 am

Quoting Litz (Reply 1):
Gone will be the high-lease-cost CRJ's, probably replaced with much more reasonably priced E170/E190, if anything; mother DL may just reduce some of those routes right out of DCI and back into Mainline.

No way is DL gunna replace or remove from service all those CRJs. Heck, they just bought more from DH and the CR7s continue to roll in. Besides, they're my favorite bins to work in!  silly 
This Website Censors Me
 
commavia
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:42 am

Quoting Litz (Reply 1):
This does beg a related question - where on earth are all these CRJ's gonna go?

Maybe this is the coming RJ glut that Mike Boyd has been predicting for a few years.
 
skibum9
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:55 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 4):
Maybe this is the coming RJ glut that Mike Boyd has been predicting for a few years.

I guess not to far off in the future, we will be seeing 100s of RJs, at least the CRJ 50s/40s, baking in the desert, with no buyers. The leasing/finance companies will probably take a bath on them. A few corporations may snatch a few up, but many will just sit or be scrapped. I don't see many airlines picking them up second hand given their high CASM.
Tailwinds!!!
 
LUVRSW
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:16 pm

What is a CASM? Thanksssssssssssss
 
wukka
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Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 1:08 pm

RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:41 pm

Quoting LUVRSW (Reply 6):
What is a CASM?

"Cost for (per) Available Seat Mile"

I understand the ramifications on a high level, but I'm not a financial number-cruncher, so spilling my thoughts on it would be worthless.  Smile

Hopefully knowing what the phrase means will be enough to get you going on a google-hunt; and maybe you can come back and help me with some of the funky math!

Best of luck... hope that helps a little bit.
We can agree to disagree.
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:12 pm

Quoting N766UA (Reply 3):
No way is DL gunna replace or remove from service all those CRJs. Heck, they just bought more from DH and the CR7s continue to roll in.

While DL isn't going to dump all of Comair's CRJ's....I could easily see DL dumping 50-60 of them. Comair has no CR7's coming in...in fact Comair has no new aircraft scheduled for delivery. The only reason DL picked up some of the DH RJ's was part of the agreement with GE for financing. DL didn't want the DH RJ's, but they had to take them as part of the deal.

I see two paths for Comair:

1) DL dumps 50-60 of Comair's CRJ's. Then DL slashes Comair wages, benefits, etc. Then DL sells off the leaner and sleaker Comair to Mesa (or Republic). The money from the sale is used to payback part of the DIP financing as part of DL's emergence from BK.

2) DL dumps 50-60 of Comair CRJ's. Then DL slashes Comair wages, benefits, etc. With lower costs and a better business model, DL (with help from GE) picks up a ton of 70 seaters for Comair to fly. The 70 seaters allow for some growth at Comair, but also continue to replace 50 seaters.

Either option would be rough for Comair employees, but (2) would probably be better. However, given DL's rocky financials I think (1) is more likely.
 
VgnAtl747
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:52 pm

A) If DL didn't have future plans for us, they would have dumped us before CH 11 and not carried us with them. Personally I think going through this entire mess, pulling Comair along with them, shows that they're committed to keeping the Comair relationship going, although they could just be doing it to make us get costs under control, so they can sell us for a more attractive price.

B) Re: FlyPNS1... DL doesn't control Comair wages/benefits (with the exception of our flight pass benefits), but you can expect to see cuts within OH.

C) The post that said DL will start to take over RJ lines with Mainline is completely false. Every document I've seen has said that DL wants to become an INTERNATIONAL carrier, and leave domestic travel to the regionals, OH, EV, RP, etc.

D) Fred Buttrel's plan is for Comair to exit CH11 within 6 months, seperate from DL. Will that happen? I don't think so, but many people in Erlanger would love to go independent from DL again. He is trying to position OH to be the lowest cost carrier of DCI. That means there's a lot of work to do, including labor cost reduction. I've heard the OH is the highest paying regional airline, at least for customer service agents, that is going to have to be reduced.

E) Although OH was the first regional to go to all jet service, in a meeting I was at, Fred said, "Don't be supprised if airlines start using turboprops again, on short single segment hops, as they are more fuel efficient." Does that mean we may start flying props again on some of our shorter, lower yield routes? Perhaps, but nobody knows. He also was in a big push to fly the ERJ170, but as DL's financial position worsened, Comair couldn't find funding for these aircraft. Perhaps after the exit from CH 11, this is a possibility.

F) We're not going to really see any major changes until DL finalizes the winter schedule. It looks like a lot of OH 3 flight/day stations are being reduced to 2 flights. Odly enough, this goes against DL's "International Plan", so who knows. My station is slated to loose our 1pm flight, the flight all of our international passengers take. The flight after that, doesn't arrive CVG until well after 7:30, making CVG international connections virtually impossible, and insuring there's no chance of hopping a CVG-ATL bridge flight for an ATL international... it's just not going to work.
Work Hard. Fly Right. Continental Airlines
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:52 pm

I would frankly rather see less frequency with DL mainline service than hop on a cramped CRJ every two hours out of DAY.
One Nation Under God
 
skibum9
Posts: 862
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2001 1:13 pm

RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:02 am

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
A) If DL didn't have future plans for us, they would have dumped us before CH 11 and not carried us with them.

From what I understand, DL tried to shop OH, but there were no takers as the cost structure was too high.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
I've heard the OH is the highest paying regional airline, at least for customer service agents, that is going to have to be reduced.

It is also the 1st or 2nd highest for pilot pay, which significantly adds to the CASM of those RJS. Check out www.airlinepilotpay.com
Tailwinds!!!
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:20 am

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
Personally I think going through this entire mess, pulling Comair along with them, shows that they're committed to keeping the Comair relationship going, although they could just be doing it to make us get costs under control, so they can sell us for a more attractive price.

Exactly. DL couldn't find anyone to take Comair...in part because of Comair's high costs. In BK, Comair's costs will be cut which would make Comair a more appealing item.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
B) Re: FlyPNS1... DL doesn't control Comair wages/benefits (with the exception of our flight pass benefits), but you can expect to see cuts within OH.

DL OWNS Comair, so ultimately they have the say on what they think pay at Comair should be. They will pass that number to Comair management who will then negotiate with the Comair unions.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
The post that said DL will start to take over RJ lines with Mainline is completely false. Every document I've seen has said that DL wants to become an INTERNATIONAL carrier, and leave domestic travel to the regionals, OH, EV, RP, etc.

In the past, this might have been true. But if DL wants to survive in the long-run, this plan won't work. Flying a bunch of high-CASM RJ's up against WN, B6, FL is doomed to fail. I'm sure the E170's will likely replace some mainline flying....but in the long-term DL will need larger planes (E190's, 737's,etc) to compete with the LCC's.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
Although OH was the first regional to go to all jet service, in a meeting I was at, Fred said, "Don't be supprised if airlines start using turboprops again, on short single segment hops, as they are more fuel efficient." Does that mean we may start flying props again on some of our shorter, lower yield routes?

I could see this happening if OH can get the financing. RJ's don't work well on short-hauls....particularly with jet fuel prices so high.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 9):
We're not going to really see any major changes until DL finalizes the winter schedule

While the winter schedule isn't finalized, we already know that Comair is taking big cuts....it's just a matter of how big. From what I've heard, an announcement should be coming pretty soon.
 
TL8490
Topic Author
Posts: 132
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:50 pm

RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:15 am

Comair's problem is not only the size of their planes but the customer service product on the ground. The Christmas Fiasco, the pilot's strike, and in general the lack of respect for the customer. Comair will cancel a flight much faster than any other carrier I have seem.
 
atcrick
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:26 am

The RJ world has got out of hand.. When ACA first started flying them, they would only use them on their longer legs because short flights (IAD-RIC, IAD-CHO) etc, were too short for the RJ to make money. Then the world exploded and the flying pubic became afraid of anything that had a prop cause they didn't think it was safe. This MUST come to an end. There are old prop jobs (Twin Otters, DO-228's) etc flying millions of people from Vegas to GCN every year and not one passenger yet had died of fear of the dreaded prop. Sorry to go off on a tangent but I think the turboprop will return as mainline airlines begin taking back some of their routes. Maybe Skywest will buy Comair too.

My two cents all,

Rck
natch!!
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2566
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Thu Oct 06, 2005 8:34 am

Comair has some of the oldest RJs at about 13/14 years old. I am not sure what the RJ's design limits are but are they anywhere near reaching their cycle/hour limits?
 
KarlB737
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:13 am

Courtesy: The Cincinnati Enquirer

Pay, Job Cuts Coming Soon At Comair

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...icle?AID=/20051005/BIZ01/310050010
 
nkops
Posts: 2159
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RE: Will Comair Exist After Bankruptcy?

Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:11 pm

What would be the odds of DL selling some of OH CRJ's to someone who could operate them for a lot cheaper... ( You all know who I'm referring to, don't make me say it!!)




OK, Mesa!!!
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