Slarty
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BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 7:59 am

http://www.thebusinessonline.com/Sto...B76EF0-7991-4389-B72E-D07EB5AA1CEE

"...

A former pilot Walsh, 43, said he would be looking at the new Airbus A350 mid-sized jet in advance of expanding its fleet later in the decade. The plane, subject of a trade dispute between Europe and America over launch aid, has the range to enable BA to fly non-stop to South Africa, Singapore and the West Coast of America. Walsh said the plane and its Boeing rival, the 787, both had the advantage of being able to cover a large part of BA’s existing route network.

He also said the airline would evaluate the Airbus A380 superjumbo, and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one. Until now BA has adopted a wait-and-see approach to the supersize jet which underwent its first flights earlier this year.

Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a “niche”, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011.

Walsh will also consider Boeing’s new 787 mid-sized plane and the 747 Advanced, should it launch.

He said fleet expansion “does not make a lot of sense” until after the airline moves to Terminal Five in 2008."
 
planesarecool
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:02 am

Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?
 
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scbriml
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:10 am

Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

Why doesn't LH have PTV?

When will NW replace their DC-9s?

When will AA change their colour scheme?

Why is the A340 such an awful plane?

[ad infinitum]
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ikramerica
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:19 am

Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

Who wants to fly a CO 757 trans atlantic and why don't they have PTVs in coach?

Why would anyone want to fly non-stop 18 hours?

There are plenty of overdone topics people can't get enough of.
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jacobin777
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:40 am

Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

WRONG!! If these comments/statements are true, then it is the first time the new BA boss has said that the A380 just isn't the right aircraft for them, on top of that, Walsh has also gave a date (2011) as to when they want to start replacing their widebodies..........this is already on top of the fact Eddington had stated that The WhaleJet would probably not be in the cards.............


I think if the 747ADV goes and performs well, it will provide BA an opportunity to increase seats on an incremental basis...if BA go for the 747ADV instead of The WhaleJet, I think it would be a blow to The WhaleJet program, as well as increase the probability it will take more years for it to turn into a profit..if that!

The 787/A350 battle is going to be a good one, as Walsh was a big fan of Airbus, but with BA having all its largebody planes as Boeing manufactured, I would probably give it a slight tilt to Boeing's favour...
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yowza
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:05 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 2):

Why doesn't LH have PTV?

When will NW replace their DC-9s?

When will AA change their colour scheme?

Why is the A340 such an awful plane?

I see I'm not the only cynic on this forum. I whole-heartedly agree with you about the DC9s in particular!

YOWza
 
Slarty
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:48 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 4):
If these comments/statements are true, then it is the first time the new BA boss has said that the A380 just isn't the right aircraft for them, on top of that,

Exactly why I posted it ... there are several new pieces of info. here.

On another note: If you see a forum post entitled "BA's Walsh States A380 is Risky for BA" and you are "tired" of hearing about BA, might i recommend that you move on? Nobody is forcing you to read stuff that you don't want to ...
 
commavia
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:26 am

The plane, subject of a trade dispute between Europe and America over launch aid, has the range to enable BA to fly non-stop to South Africa, Singapore and the West Coast of America.

Finally! BA will be able to fly nonstop from LHR to JNB, SIN and LAX! No more technical stops in Des Moines, Cairo or Dhaka! Who writes these things?  Smile

He also said the airline would evaluate the Airbus A380 superjumbo, and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one. Until now BA has adopted a wait-and-see approach to the supersize jet which underwent its first flights earlier this year.

Shhh ... don't tell the Airbus people this!

Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a “niche”, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011.

Is this the first definitive inkling from anyone in a position of authority within BA -- on the record -- that the A380 is not right for BA?

[i]Walsh will also consider Boeing’s new 787 mid-sized plane and the 747 Advanced, should it launch.[.i]

I expect both aircraft to be in the BA fleet by the end of the next decade.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:28 pm

BA--unlike other international airlines that fly in and out of LHR--does not have a pressing need for the A380-800 for this reason: BA controls a large fraction of the landing slots at the airport. As such, BA can easily re-arrange their flight schedules using their LHR landing slot allocation to do things like multiple flights per day to various cities in the USA.
 
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zeke
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:58 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a “niche”, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011.

Is this the first definitive inkling from anyone in a position of authority within BA -- on the record -- that the A380 is not right for BA?

[i]Walsh will also consider Boeing’s new 787 mid-sized plane and the 747 Advanced, should it launch.[.i]

I expect both aircraft to be in the BA fleet by the end of the next decade.

What an airline selects for its fleet does not reflect on a manufacturer, or an aircraft type, it reflects on its business needs and route structure of that airline.

I don’t see the need for BA to go 747-ADV, I do see a need for 773ER, 787/350 aircraft, and maybe a handful of A380's. As pointed out they have the luxury of going high frequency out of LHR, most operators don’t. People who are ordering 380's for LHR operations have limited slots so the 380 is the only way to increase capacity.

If they go 380, it will be for ports where they are limited on slots away from LHR and want to increase capacity.

I see the 380 to sell 500-1000 airframes in pax and freighter configs, with the majority going into Asia.
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redflyer
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:05 pm

Quoting Slarty (Reply 6):
On another note: If you see a forum post entitled "BA's Walsh States A380 is Risky for BA" and you are "tired" of hearing about BA, might i recommend that you move on? Nobody is forcing you to read stuff that you don't want to ...

Very well said. Welcome to my RU list for saying what I always want to say to those folks who get bent out of shape over repeat threads!

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 4):
if BA go for the 747ADV instead of The WhaleJet, I think it would be a blow to The WhaleJet program, as well as increase the probability it will take more years for it to turn into a profit.

I agree, but only from the perspective that without a BA order it makes it harder to validate the business model of the 380. Not that it hasn't been validated thus far with some of the marquee airlines that have ordered it. But without BA and some other global heavy-hitters then I think the jury will be out that much longer on the 380.
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manni
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:05 pm

Yet in another article Walsh claims that he is interested in the A380 as an addition to the existing 747 fleet and not as a replacement.

Wonder what he'll say tomorrow.  Yeah sure

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zeke
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:51 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 10):
But without BA and some other global heavy-hitters then I think the jury will be out that much longer on the 380.

If look at Fedex, they have only ordered 10 A380s, but statements last week from Fedex that they will be operating hundreds in the future.

To judge on the success or otherwise of the 380 at this stage is premature, bit like suggesting since BA havent ordered the 773/773ER or 772LR those programs are doomed. The 773 will have a bright future, like the 380.
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JetMaster
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 4:36 pm

Quoting Slarty (Thread starter):
He also said the airline would evaluate the Airbus A380 superjumbo, and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one. Until now BA has adopted a wait-and-see approach to the supersize jet which underwent its first flights earlier this year.

Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a “niche”, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011.

Could also be a diplomatic way to tell Airbus to make a good offer...I'm convinced we'll see BA ordering A380s in the future.


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astuteman
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 4:45 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 11):
Yet in another article Walsh claims that he is interested in the A380 as an addition to the existing 747 fleet and not as a replacement.

Wonder what he'll say tomorrow.

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...0919/

In both the thread starting article, and this one above Walsh says BA ARE interested in the A380, but NOT as a replacement for its other widebodies, rather as an addition to them (as Manni says).

I can only interpret that as BA will get A380's, but not very many, and not even ruling out 747ADV if they do.
Doesn't sound unreasonable to me.......
 
Glom
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:04 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 9):
I don’t see the need for BA to go 747-ADV,

See I don't get that. Why would they want something of 773ER size and A380 but not something in between? Is 450 seats some kind of black hole while either side is viable?
 
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:37 pm

Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

Because British Airways are one of the few major carriers who are profitable, and in a position to be able to go out and buy aircraft without having to pass the begging bowl round creditors and banks.

Unfortunately they are playing hard to get at the moment. They don't need any capacity or renewal short-term and can play the long game with both major suppliers. I'd expect an order at the other extreme first, some nice new Embraers joining the fleet before anything over 100 seats.

Quoting Glom (Reply 15):

See I don't get that. Why would they want something of 773ER size and A380 but not something in between? Is 450 seats some kind of black hole while either side is viable?

The only people who think an airline has to have aircraft of every possible size are armchair experts. An airline can still make money without needing to plug every available capacity slot in their fleet. It's just a case of tuning fares and demand, and for that reason fleet types can be eliminated altogether and cost savings made.

I doubt if you will see any BA order for the A380 before 2010 at the earliest.
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zeke
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:10 pm

Quoting Glom (Reply 15):
See I don't get that. Why would they want something of 773ER size and A380 but not something in between? Is 450 seats some kind of black hole while either side is viable?

It was my opinion only, I was thinking since they have about 350 seats on their 744's, a 773ER could do much the same job over its routes with just a few less seats and a little more cargo.

I thought BA operate their 772's with more cargo (20t v 18t) than the 744 now.

Being almost limitless on the slots available to BA at LHR, I thought from a marketing point a view higher frequency would have been better than volume, and would let them dominate their main hub LHR.

As I said before the only place I see them using the 380 if they do get them would be on routes where they have limited slots away from LHR, or an A380ER version would enable them do LHR-SYD with 400+ pax.
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art
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:46 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
Walsh says BA ARE interested in the A380, but NOT as a replacement for its other widebodies, rather as an addition to them...

Am I right in thinking that some of BA's 747's are configured with about 300 seats?

According to the A.net 380 aircraft data page, the "A380 has 49% more floor area but only 35% more seats (in 555 seat configuration) than the 747-400".

After the economics of the a/c have been demonstrated, might BA not be interested in the A380 partly because of the space it offers, allowing a higher proportion of premium seating?
 
Slarty
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:12 pm

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 13):
Could also be a diplomatic way to tell Airbus to make a good offer...I'm convinced we'll see BA ordering A380s in the future.

Could be ... he certainly left the "door open" with his comment "... the airline would evaluate the Airbus A380 superjumbo, and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one.". The "significant" comment might be another ploy to get Airbus to offer a super-duper deal  Smile
 
manni
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:30 pm

"if BA go for the 747ADV instead of The WhaleJet, I think it would be a blow to The WhaleJet program, as well as increase the probability it will take more years for it to turn into a profit..if that!"

While BA might be a very respectable airline, an airliner doesn't fail or succeed with a BA order. More than 500 units of the very succesfull A330's have been ordered so far, none of them by BA. Only 14 Concordes have been built, 7 of them for BA. Nevertheless a A380 order by airlines such as BA, QF, SQ and other profitable airlines, certainly is better publicity and an asset for future salespitches as compared to orders from ...
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as739x
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:55 pm

BA has to beautiful of a paint job to go on the A380!

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jacobin777
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 11:09 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 20):
While BA might be a very respectable airline, an airliner doesn't fail or succeed with a BA order. More than 500 units of the very succesfull A330's have been ordered so far, none of them by BA. Only 14 Concordes have been built, 7 of them for BA. Nevertheless a A380 order by airlines such as BA, QF, SQ and other profitable airlines, certainly is better publicity and an asset for future salespitches as compared to orders from ...

correct, but you can be certain that Airbus DEFINITELY had BA in mind, given the status of LHR and BA.........from what I've read, I would almost go as so far to say Airbus is betting that BA would probably replace most, if not all of their 747's with The WhaleJet........
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garpd
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Sun Oct 09, 2005 11:14 pm

Quoting Planesarecool (Reply 1):
Great, another thread on BA's so-called future aircraft plans. Is there nothing else to talk about these days?

Yes but this time we have the head honcho telling us the A380 is NOT the 747 replacement for BA that a lot on these forums have said it would be.

He also says the A380 will not have a big role to play in BA, if they get it. That to me is a crucial bit of news thats has served to dampen a few arguments from the A380 flagwavers RE a BA order.
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JetMaster
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:59 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 23):

Yes but this time we have the head honcho telling us the A380 is NOT the 747 replacement for BA that a lot on these forums have said it would be.

No surprise it won't be "the" B747 replacement. But there's still an option to replace a part of them with the big bird. There are many ways for an airline how to get a good deal...denying interest in public is one of them.


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zeke
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:09 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 23):
Yes but this time we have the head honcho telling us the A380 is NOT the 747 replacement for BA that a lot on these forums have said it would be.

Correct, the 380 is not a general 747 replacement for BA, however it is a 747 replacement for airlines that operate them with 400-550 pax configurations with high load factors, or need growth and are slot limited. I also see them as a replacement for airlines like Eva which have 744 combies, one deck can be still used for pax, and two decks for cargo.

It may also be useful on the asia pacific routes where they have their highest load factors and don’t have unlimited slots.

Does not make sense for an airline to just throw capacity to a route if they are only flying around now with a 77% load factor (from BA investor relations). It just results in a 48% load factor on a A380. Better off with a 773ER and have a 88% load factor.
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:55 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 24):
There are many ways for an airline how to get a good deal...denying interest in public is one of them.

Sure, Udo, and there are ways for CEOs to communicate that they see the A380 as at best a risky, niche product.
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N79969
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:43 pm

Before they began building the A380, Airbus stated that every 747-400 was a candidate for replacement by the A380. This is how they justified spending $13 billion to develop the aircraft. They basically set the standard as a 1:1 replacement ratio and one of their demand forecast for 1,400 aircraft in the 500+ seat category reflect this (wildly optimistic) view.

For this prediction to come true, Airbus would have to persuade the big 744 operators, such as BA, to commit to a wholesale replacement of the 744 with the A380. So far such a committment by any airline is nowhere in sight. Of course, some of this can and has been compensated for by sales to airlines that have no 744 to begin with: Emirates, China Southern, Qatar etc. And also complementary sales to 744 fleets such as those Lufthansa, Qantas, Korean Air, and so on.

In the context of what Airbus predicted, and more importantly, sunk over $10 billion of investment into, the fleet decisions of airlines like BA are very significant to the success of the A380 program.
 
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garpd
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:35 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 25):
Correct, the 380 is not a general 747 replacement for BA, however it is a 747 replacement for airlines that operate them with 400-550 pax configurations with high load factors, or need growth and are slot limited. I also see them as a replacement for airlines like Eva which have 744 combies, one deck can be still used for pax, and two decks for cargo.

It may also be useful on the asia pacific routes where they have their highest load factors and don’t have unlimited slots.

Absolutely, but I didn't deny this in the first place.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 25):
Does not make sense for an airline to just throw capacity to a route if they are only flying around now with a 77% load factor (from BA investor relations). It just results in a 48% load factor on a A380. Better off with a 773ER and have a 88% load factor.

Probably one of the most sensible arguments I've seen RE: the BA and A380 ongoing argument. Kudos.
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vv701
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:16 am

BA are likely to order in time to take delivery in late 2011 and early 2012. They will need temporary extra capacity for the London 2012 Summer Olympics. Then, after the Olympics they will sell those aircraft the new aircraft replace.

With the restriction of slots at LHR we may well see BA wide bodies of short haul routes immediately before until immediately after the Olympics.
 
keesje
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:36 am

So

a. BA is evaluating but won´t replace all their 747s with A380s.
b. Certainly no deliveries before 2008.

shocker, really..
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RedChili
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:03 am

I don't understand how people can interpret this article as a statement like "BA will not order the A380."

Now, I don't know if the reporter chose exactly the best words to describe his talk with Walsh, but assuming that he did choose the right words, this article actually confirms that BA will order the A380. One part of the article reads: "and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one."

What that means in plain language is: "Right now, Walsh believes that BA should buy the A380 for a few routes, but not very many."

This article is in fact the most positive report I've ever read about the prospects for BA buying the A380.
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willyj
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:09 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
The plane, subject of a trade dispute between Europe and America over launch aid, has the range to enable BA to fly non-stop to South Africa, Singapore and the West Coast of America.

Finally! BA will be able to fly nonstop from LHR to JNB, SIN and LAX! No more technical stops in Des Moines, Cairo or Dhaka! Who writes these things?

I agree it's poorly worded, or at least a bit vague, but perhaps they mean that the 787/350 could fly to secondary cities in these markets. For example, San Diego, Durban, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Saigon, etc. - not small cities, but none of them have BA nonstops from London at the moment. As the 787 is smaller than the 772, perhaps these markets could be opened up... Just a thought
 
N79969
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:26 am

I think RedChili is correct in his view.
 
lehpron
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:31 am

Normally, I take a bit of salt with a company's analysis of any product as it can be biased by either resistance or bandwagon-ism within the company.

So when I see statements like this:

Quoting Slarty (Thread starter):
An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011

It has been my understanding that carriers do not plan up to or more than the life of their purchased products, categorized as such. So from how far is from? I'd like to know. Then Id like to know how do people make decisions on the unknown... :-/

Granted carriers can curve their own markets such that people will fly a certain route at a certain time of day if they so choose; customer coercion IMO.
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Ken777
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:42 am

I believe that BA is conservative enough to wait until actual operational experiences are gained on the 380 before they put their feet in the water. They will certainly be keeping a very close eye on how the 380 does in the fleets. Probably the same for the 787 - looks good (like the 380) but does it exceed expectations in the fleet.

The 777/747ADV may actually have a better chance of some small initial orders to replace BA's older 747s. BA knows enough about the operational performance of the 744 to be fairly comfortable going with the ADV and I think they are happy with their 777.

Basically it's just an interesting topic to watch unfold. We can enjoy it - it's the guys at A&B that will feel the stress.
 
keesje
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:56 am

A few months ago BA (Broughton) said they were not interested in A350. A stupid statement in any case, I quote myself, Mon Aug 1 2005 01:06:26 UTC+2:

Boyle probably already had an "alignment chat" with Broughton on his A350 statement because it damages BA´s negotiation position towards Boeing on the 787. Probably some BA public "interest" in the A350 in a few months .. to restore negotiation positions..

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eral_aviation/read.main/2248094/6/


It happens as predicted. This seems to be a scheduled recovery statement. It is not in BA´s interest to make Airbus or Boeing to enthousiastic by disqualifying the alternative, bad starting point for negotiations..

BA & Airbus : both will continue to say they don´t need each other & are looking at alternatives. This is a multi billion game & a big fish is shopping.. My best guess : 25 A380´s for BA within 10 years & a lot of B787´s from 2009.

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jacobin777
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:15 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 27):
Before they began building the A380, Airbus stated that every 747-400 was a candidate for replacement by the A380. This is how they justified spending $13 billion to develop the aircraft. They basically set the standard as a 1:1 replacement ratio and one of their demand forecast for 1,400 aircraft in the 500+ seat category reflect this (wildly optimistic) view.



Quoting N79969 (Reply 27):

In the context of what Airbus predicted, and more importantly, sunk over $10 billion of investment into, the fleet decisions of airlines like BA are very significant to the success of the A380 program.



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 22):
correct, but you can be certain that Airbus DEFINITELY had BA in mind, given the status of LHR and BA.........from what I've read, I would almost go as so far to say Airbus is betting that BA would probably replace most, if not all of their 747's with The WhaleJet........

that's what I've been saying.........good to know someone here sees it the same way...

Quoting VV701 (Reply 29):
BA are likely to order in time to take delivery in late 2011 and early 2012. They will need temporary extra capacity for the London 2012 Summer Olympics. Then, after the Olympics they will sell those aircraft the new aircraft replace.



Quoting Slarty (Thread starter):

Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a �niche�, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier�s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011.

they aren't going to get the plane just for the Olympics, not going to happen..... no 

Quoting RedChili (Reply 31):

This article is in fact the most positive report I've ever read about the prospects for BA buying the A380.

disagree....BA has always said that they will be "looking" at the A380, and Walsh is toting the company line.....he certainly doesn't want to antagonise Airbus.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 36):
BA & Airbus : both will continue to say they don�t need each other & are looking at alternatives. This is a multi billion game & a big fish is shopping.. My best guess : 25 A380�s for BA within 10 years & a lot of B787�s from 2009.

I finally agree with you on something......almost.........I think they will get maybe 10 WhaleJets within the next 10 years only if the 747ADV isn't launced or doesn't perform up to specs.......
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EI321
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:08 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 27):
Before they began building the A380, Airbus stated that every 747-400 was a candidate for replacement by the A380. This is how they justified spending $13 billion to develop the aircraft. They basically set the standard as a 1:1 replacement ratio and one of their demand forecast for 1,400 aircraft in the 500+ seat category reflect this (wildly optimistic) view.

Your statement grossly contradicts itself. Airbus saying that every 744 is a candidate for replacement by A380 just means that the 380 is a contender, not a sure bet to replace each induvidual 744. A 1:1 replacement would precipitate that every 744 could only be replaced by an A380.
 
RedChili
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:28 am

Walsh did not say anything about BA considering the 773ER. Was this just an oversight on his or the journalist's part, or is this an indication that BA is not interested in that plane? Could it be that the 773 is getting too old for BA, since they apparently plan to start replacing their long haul fleet in 2011?

Since he only mentioned the A350/B787 and B747Adv/A380, this could possibly mean that BA will not have room for 773 sized aircraft in its future fleet? This is just wild speculation from my side...

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 13):
Could also be a diplomatic way to tell Airbus to make a good offer..

Or it could be a diplomatic way of telling Boeing to get their act together and make a decision on the 747Adv.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 8):
BA--unlike other international airlines that fly in and out of LHR--does not have a pressing need for the A380-800 for this reason: BA controls a large fraction of the landing slots at the airport.

If BA wants to stay the same size as today, then the slot issue is not a problem. But air traffic is predicted to double within the next 15 years, and if BA wants a piece of that cake, they will need bigger aircraft. I don't believe that any company which is making money actually plans to reduce the size of their business, like BA would if they would replace the 744 with the 773.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):
disagree....BA has always said that they will be "looking" at the A380, and Walsh is toting the company line....

But now he was saying that he "envisions" the A380 in the BA fleet, which (if the reporter used the correct word) sounds like BA is in the process of making a positive decision.
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vv701
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:43 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):
they aren't going to get the plane just for the Olympics, not going to happen.....

And neither are they going to order any new wide bodies for delivery well in front of the Olympics or just after they have finished. They need new wide-bodied aircraft in the medium to long term. They will need extra capacity in summer 2012. I cannot see BA planning for fleet re-equipment and BA planning for the Olympic peak in 2012 being carried out as if one event does not impact the other. Further, if you read Walsh's words what he has said fits this scenario perfectly.
 
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:09 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 38):
Your statement grossly contradicts itself. Airbus saying that every 744 is a candidate for replacement by A380 just means that the 380 is a contender, not a sure bet to replace each induvidual 744. A 1:1 replacement would precipitate that every 744 could only be replaced by an A380.

how does it contradict itself? The post is correct in saying that Airbus expects each 747 to be replaced by The WhaleJet, I think you are misunderstanding N79969's....which is correct

Quoting RedChili (Reply 39):
Walsh did not say anything about BA considering the 773ER. Was this just an oversight on his or the journalist's part, or is this an indication that BA is not interested in that plane? Could it be that the 773 is getting too old for BA, since they apparently plan to start replacing their long haul fleet in 2011?

though he might not have said it in the interview...BA is seriously looking at the -300ER as Eddington, though no longer in charge, said that the -300ER would be a very good aircraft for BA's fleet...look to BA adding some -300ER to its fleet.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 39):
But now he was saying that he "envisions" the A380 in the BA fleet, which (if the reporter used the correct word) sounds like BA is in the process of making a positive decision.

you fail to mention that Walsh also stated......."Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a “niche”, and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier’s existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011."

Quoting VV701 (Reply 40):
Further, if you read Walsh's words what he has said fits this scenario perfectly.

see above..

edit:

more interesting...

" Walsh, who took over from Sir Rod Eddington only a week ago, also talked of placing a multibillion pound order with Boeing to replace BA's fleet.

No final decision has been made and Walsh's fleet experts are talking to Boeing and Airbus about its requirements. But it is clear that BA is taken by Boeing's Advanced version of the 747, which has yet to be built. "

http://www.rednova.com/news/technolo...lay/index.html?source=r_technology

[Edited 2005-10-11 02:15:52]
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Revelation
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:18 am

More of the same from here:

Quote:
And he rules out replacing any of his existing aircraft with the A380, the superjumbo being developed by Airbus.

"I'm pleased that we haven't ordered them," Walsh says. "I can say that quite genuinely. I wouldn't like to be one of the first airlines to introduce the aircraft. It is a significant change. I think any new aircraft takes time to bed in."

He points out that with a list price of $305m (£175m), he needs some convincing that the economics of the new plane will stack up.

Care to put some spin onto this one, Udo?
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N79969
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 11:26 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 38):
Your statement grossly contradicts itself. Airbus saying that every 744 is a candidate for replacement by A380 just means that the 380 is a contender, not a sure bet to replace each induvidual 744.

Do you understand the term "candidate" and the nuance it carries? I chose it for a reason. Re-read my post again. Airbus set its bar very, very high. No one else did.
 
Slarty
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:01 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
"I'm pleased that we haven't ordered them," Walsh says

Oh come on! Tell us how you really feel ...

LOL
 
Scorpio
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:50 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 41):
The post is correct in saying that Airbus expects each 747 to be replaced by The WhaleJet,

Um... Airbus has never said they expect every 747 to be replaced by A380. They said every 747 was a CANDIDATE to be replaced. That's a very big difference with expecting all of them to actually be replaced with it. Also don't forget that about half the A380s ordered so far are not even meant to replace any 744s...

And let's not forget Airbus has always said they expected the A380 to get competition, some of which would capture some of those replacements no doubt. So please, in the interest of this discussion, don't twist Airbus' words around into them expecting to replace every single 744 with an A380.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
"I'm pleased that we haven't ordered them," Walsh says. "I can say that quite genuinely. I wouldn't like to be one of the first airlines to introduce the aircraft. It is a significant change. I think any new aircraft takes time to bed in."

He points out that with a list price of $305m (£175m), he needs some convincing that the economics of the new plane will stack up.

Care to put some spin onto this one, Udo?

What is there to 'spin' about this? It's just another confirmation of what we've known all along: BA is taking a 'wait and see' approach with regards to A380. It doesn't say he doesn't want to order them, just that he's pleased they're not a launch customer, and that he's not completely convinced yet.
 
BestWestern
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:03 pm

IMHO, the BA 744 fleet will be (eventually) replaced by the excellent 773 and targeted A380 implementation (Perhaps as much as twenty) for high density routes that arent affected by low frequencies (South Africa, Australia, West Coast USA, Japan, Hong Kong). Both decisions will enable BA to reduce operating costs.

Walsh is playing hardball with Airbus, just like he did at AerLingus. He is a shrewed and calculated business man that will make BA look like a different airline to what it is today. Just look at Aer Lingus - today a focused, profitable airline with an ever expanding European route network, and about to expand long haul. Four years ago, it was a basket-case Alitalia like airline that he turned around. Expect an Aer Lingus style operation from Gatwick, Birmingham and Manchester. He knows the potential of the A320 and knows how to take the low cost airlines on, and win!
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EI321
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:37 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 43):
Do you understand the term "candidate"

Yes I understand it very well, thanks. Im stressing the difference between ''a candidate'' and as you said, and a ''1:1 replacement ratio'' ie, the only candidate in such a case. If airbus had stated that ''every 744 was a candidate for replacement by A380'' then this would also mean that the door is left open for every 744 to be replaced by aircraft other than the A380, such as 346 or 773. This is not quite ''setting the standard for a 1:1 replacement ratio'', as you stated in the same paragraph, as that would mean every 744 could ONLY be replaced by an A380 and nothing else.

Regards,

EI321

[Edited 2005-10-11 13:39:03]
 
keesje
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:53 pm

[quote=Revelation,reply=42]He points out that with a list price of $305m (£175m), he needs some convincing that the economics of the new plane will stack up.

They are already in price negotiations? Airbus is very silent on BA lately.
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N79969
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RE: BA's Walsh States A380 Is Risky For BA

Tue Oct 11, 2005 10:07 pm

EI321,

You did not catch the point I was making or actually that Airbus was making about 4 years ago. They stated that every 744 was a candidate for replacement by the A380. The statement was accompanied by a demand projection of 1,400 units over x number of years. Airbus themselves implicitly suggested a 1:1 replacement potential for the A380. I did not come up with it.

These bold projections were the basis of Airbus investing over $10 billion into the A380 R&D.