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kc135topboom
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When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 11:43 am

BA has been a B-747-400 operator for close to 20 years now. I'm sure these airplanes will have to be replaced beginning within the next 8 years or so. The B-767-300ERs are also old and will need to be replaced within the next 8-10 years.

That leaves BA with only the B-777-200ERs as their long range jet. These airplanes are relitively young at less than 10 years old.

I know BA got burned a little by being a launch customer on the B-777-200ERs. But is there a timing possibility of being a launch customer on the B-747-ADV? It is not really a completely new design, it is a derivitive airplane. It will also be available with the same RR engines (except non-bleedless version) as the B-787-800. BA already has maintenance and crew training experience with their B-747-400s, so transisioning to the B-747-ADV shouldn't be as expensive as buying a new type. Additionally, the B-747-ADV will carry more cargo and passengers than it's older sister, the B-747-400. The newer model should make a good profit on every route it flys.

Buying new B-787-800s will introduce a new type into the BA fleet, but there isn't much choice there, unless BA decides to buy either the B-777-300ER or the B-777-200LR. As any other Boeing or Airbus airplane will be a new type. The B-787-800 seems to be a perfect fit for BA to replace the B-767-300ERs, it has more range and cargo capability, and carries more passengers. It is a great growth airplane for BA.

BA only has four other long range airplane choices, all from Airbus. The A-380-800, which I believe is to big for BA and will cost them a fortune in infastructure improvements. The A-340-600 is a choice, but does not carry as many passengers and cargo as the B-777-300ER, but has more range. The A-340-600 compares more closely to the B-777-200LR, but has shorter range, about the same number of passengers, and less cargo carrying capability.

The A-350-800 could be a competitor to the B-787-800 buy, but it (if you believe Boeing) may cost up to 20% more to operate.

Finally, there is the A-330-200/300. This is a mature airplane now, and I believe is Airbus's best chance to sell to BA. The A-330-200/300 has some impressive numbers, and the type has been selected by the RAF as their new tanker, with BA doing the maintenance. So, BA will have some experience with the A-330. I do not know how they feel about buying a 1990s ventage design, when there is an updated version of the A-330, the A-350 with newer technoligy available.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 11:52 am

>> I know BA got burned a little by being a launch customer on the B-777-200ERs. But is there a timing possibility of being a launch customer on the B-747-ADV?

It's possible, but this possibility has been discussed hundreds of times. There isn't any new information, so I see this as a further redundancy...

>> The B-787-800 seems to be a perfect fit for BA to replace the B-767-300ERs,

 checkmark 

>> The A-340-600 is a choice, but does not carry as many passengers and cargo as the B-777-300ER, but has more range.

Zero chance in hell that plane will ever fly in BA colors. It has an acedotal amount of range over the 773ER that amounts to nothing in an opperational sense.

It is an inferior and completly foreign fleet type to what would easily integrate into BA's fleet, the 773ER.

>> . The A-340-600 compares more closely to the B-777-200LR, but has shorter range, about the same number of passengers, and less cargo carrying capability.

The 772LR and A346 are not competitors, the 772LR competes with the A345. It isn't much of a competition, either.

The 772LR would only have a chance at BA if Boeing could demonstrate or promise round trip LHR-SYD and SYD-LHR, year-round, with a viable payload. Other than that, the current 648k (656k ?) 772ER suffice for their route network.

>> The A-350-800 could be a competitor to the B-787-800 buy, but it (if you believe Boeing) may cost up to 20% more to operate.

That isn't Boeing's claim.


>> This is a mature airplane now, and I believe is Airbus's best chance to sell to BA.The A-330-200/300 has some impressive numbers, and the type has been selected by the RAF as their new tanker, with BA doing the maintenance.

It's probably the worst time, Boeing would have an equal chance with the 767-400ER. For the same financial investment, they could order the much more advanced (and desirable) 787 or A350.

The A330's days as a canidate in fleet renewal are past. It's remaining role at Airbus is a fill-in tool for new customers awaiting A350 deliveries.

[Edited 2005-10-11 04:53:24]
 
TinkerBelle
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 12:11 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Ooh boy...not another thread about when BA will Boeing airplanes. You can find at least two threads about this in this forum in the last 48 hours.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
I know BA got burned a little by being a launch customer on the B-777-200ERs.

Was BA really the launch customer for 772ER? I can bet they were'nt but I could be wrong like I've been known to be most of the times.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Buying new B-787-800s will introduce a new type into the BA fleet, but there isn't much choice there, unless BA decides to buy either the B-777-300ER or the B-777-200LR. As any other Boeing or Airbus airplane will be a new type. The B-787-800 seems to be a perfect fit for BA to replace the B-767-300ERs, it has more range and cargo capability, and carries more passengers. It is a great growth airplane for BA.

Why do I get the feeling you're a Boeing cheerleader? The A350 is a head to head competitor with the 788 but you didn't mention it. I heard the new BA chief is a big Airbus fan.
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TinkerBelle
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 12:14 pm

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 2):
The A350 is a head to head competitor with the 788 but you didn't mention it.

I take that back.. I guess I should have read all your post before replying  banghead 
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scotron11
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:26 pm

Well, we do know one thing for certain: BA will definately order something, of course, the question is what?

Broughton stated earlier this year that BA would begin a 9 month review of their fleet requirements. If that review has already started then it should be completed in about 6 months. At that time, he did mention the 787 and 747ADV but he did not see the A350 as being the "right sort of aircraft for BA". For his part, Eddington thought the 777ER a "wonderful" 744 replacement. But he did also mention they had just refurbished their 767s and that they would be flying for another 5 years. So, if they did decide on the 787, when would they have to order them for delivery in 2010?

I also asked this question in another thread: When BA move into T5 in March 2008, it will have 5 stands capable of handling the A380. Is that a clue?

Regards
 
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zeke
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:34 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
>> The A-350-800 could be a competitor to the B-787-800 buy, but it (if you believe Boeing) may cost up to 20% more to operate.

That isn't Boeing's claim.

You can put just about any two jets say 777 or 747 or 330 whatever, load them up with different weights one light, one heavy, different CG's, one at high and one at low cruise altitude and have in excess of 20% differance in operating costs.

A 773ER will cost more to operate on a 300 nm trip with 100 pax than a 772 will, 3000 nm trip and 300 pax its the other way around, statements like that mean nothing to most people on here.
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Slarty
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:55 pm

In another thread, Revelation referenced this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...heet=/money/2005/10/09/ixcoms.html

Of particular note:

"...

Perhaps most striking, Walsh has no plans to expand the airline until at least 2009. He points out that BA has spent lots of money on modernising its fleet and that it will not need to replace any aircraft for several years.

"At this stage, I can't see us taking delivery of additional aircraft until after we've moved into Terminal Five," Walsh says. "So realistically you are looking at probably 2009 before we would be talking about taking delivery of any additional aircraft."

And he rules out replacing any of his existing aircraft with the A380, the superjumbo being developed by Airbus.

"I'm pleased that we haven't ordered them," Walsh says. "I can say that quite genuinely. I wouldn't like to be one of the first airlines to introduce the aircraft. It is a significant change. I think any new aircraft takes time to bed in."

He points out that with a list price of $305m (£175m), he needs some convincing that the economics of the new plane will stack up.

..."
 
scotron11
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:40 pm

Quoting Slarty (Reply 6):

"I'm pleased that we haven't ordered them," Walsh says. "I can say that quite genuinely. I wouldn't like to be one of the first airlines to introduce the aircraft. It is a significant change. I think any new aircraft takes time to bed in."

Maybe as of right now. Then again, is he insulting their partners QF for ordering them?
 
manni
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:58 pm

"The A330's days as a canidate in fleet renewal are past. It's remaining role at Airbus is a fill-in tool for new customers awaiting A350 deliveries."

Jet Airways (10), TAP (11), Kingfisher (5), and Air China (20) have all ordered the A330 for the first time this year, while both the 787 and A350 were also offered.
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B2707SST
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:21 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 8):
Jet Airways (10), TAP (11), Kingfisher (5), and Air China (20) have all ordered the A330 for the first time this year, while both the 787 and A350 were also offered.

China needs capacity for the 2008 Olympics and India is growing like crazy; both need frames now, not in 2010 when the A350 enters service or 787 slots are available. The TAP order was a bit of a mystery, but it also sounded like they did not want to wait for A350s or 787s.

A better way to frame is subject is that the likelihood of Airbus delivering many A330s beyond 2010 is very low. There are few missions for which an A330 would be more economical than an A350.

--B2707SST

[Edited 2005-10-11 08:22:35]
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Glom
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:20 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
It is not really a completely new design, it is a derivitive airplane. It will also be available with the same RR engines (except non-bleedless version) as the B-787-800.

I'm surprised no-one has picked up on this. Has the GE exclusivity been cancelled?
 
manni
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:30 pm

"China needs capacity for the 2008 Olympics and India is growing like crazy"

No airline is going to purchase 20 new widebody aircraft for a 2 week event, not to mention all the other A330s, 787s and A380s ordered by the other Chinese airlines. I'm not sure when the last of these 20 A330s will be delivered to Air China, but I suspect it will be long after the next production slots for the 787 are available, of wich they already ordered 18. LOT, Boeings latest 787 customer will recieve their first aircraft in 2008.


"A better way to frame is subject is that the likelihood of Airbus delivering many A330s beyond 2010 is very low."

Much more likely, and 5 years later then... "The A330's days as a canidate in fleet renewal are past"

"There are few missions for which an A330 would be more economical than an A350."

If an aircraft already exist to these soon to be "few missions", and can be produced at the same assembly line as the A350, Airbus would be stupid not to keep offering it, as long as they dont have a replacement of their own.
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kappel
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:43 pm

Quoting Slarty (Reply 6):
And he rules out replacing any of his existing aircraft with the A380, the superjumbo being developed by Airbus.

"I'm pleased that we haven't ordered them," Walsh says. "I can say that quite genuinely. I wouldn't like to be one of the first airlines to introduce the aircraft. It is a significant change. I think any new aircraft takes time to bed in."

You kind of contradict yourself here. Walsh didn't say he rules out buying them ever, rather he wants to take the wait-and-see approach to it, because it is "a significant change". He wants to see how it performs first, then maybe consider it.

Quoting Glom (Reply 10):
I'm surprised no-one has picked up on this. Has the GE exclusivity been cancelled?

THat'on the a350. GE has exclusivity for the first 2 years IIRC. RR is actually the launch engine for the 787 (ANA).
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Glom
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:48 pm

Quoting Kappel (Reply 12):
GE has exclusivity for the first 2 years IIRC.

So after two years, a customer can get RR on the 747ADV?
 
keesje
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:32 pm

Quoting Slarty (Reply 6):
"I'm pleased that we haven't ordered them," Walsh says. "I can say that quite genuinely. I wouldn't like to be one of the first airlines to introduce the aircraft. It is a significant change.

Remarkable how some people keep quoting BA as being reluctant to buy a not yet proven A380 & in the same reply say the 787 & 747adv make a good chance. Aren't these two a long way from their first flights?

Itwould strenghten KC135topbooms suggestion the A330 is an option. The A330 as an interim is a hard to beat sales tool for the A350. One can have new A330s within half a year.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
The A330's days as a canidate in fleet renewal are past

Airbus today says the a330 will be in production for another 10 years and it has sold extreme well during the last year (Air China, Eastern, Southern, CX & more likely to come..)
http://www.flightinternational.com/A...nd+will+outstrip+supply+chain.html

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
The B-787-800 seems to be a perfect fit for BA to replace the B-767-300ERs,

Short/medium range flights <4000nm? Look at the 788 range / empty weight / wing span etc..

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
The A-340-600 is a choice, but does not carry as many passengers and cargo as the B-777-300ER, but has more range.
Zero chance in hell that plane will ever fly in BA colors.

People said that about the neighbours too (VS).

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
It is an inferior and completly foreign fleet type to what would easily integrate into BA's fleet, the 773ER.

The major parts (wings & engines) are made in the UK. UK tax payer money anywhere? Apart from that full cockpit commonality with the A380 is possible.
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Shenzhen
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:45 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 11):
No airline is going to purchase 20 new widebody aircraft for a 2 week event, not to mention all the other A330s, 787s and A380s ordered by the other Chinese airlines.

The Chinese Government has made a change to their tax laws that make it very advantageous to purchase airplanes now for delivery in the near future. The Chinese feel that the 2008 Olympics will be "a" peak in travel and they are trying to take advantage of the new tax laws before their profits dip.

Cheers
 
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ZSOFN
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:01 pm

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 2):
Was BA really the launch customer for 772ER? I can bet they were'nt but I could be wrong like I've been known to be most of the times.

You're right - they weren't. UA were, although many airlines were involved in the design process, including BA.
 
Glom
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:36 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Remarkable how some people keep quoting BA as being reluctant to buy a not yet proven A380 & in the same reply say the 787 & 747adv make a good chance. Aren't these two a long way from their first flights?

You have a good point here. But then, the A380 is so much more aircraft than any other, with an unproven market, that more caution might be in order when compared to the 787, an aircraft for a proven market, or the 747ADV, a modernisation of an aircraft they already use.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Itwould strenghten KC135topbooms suggestion the A330 is an option. The A330 as an interim is a hard to beat sales tool for the A350. One can have new A330s within half a year.

This makes no sense for BA. They have said they don't want aircraft now so the A330 as an interim option for the A350 is moot. By the time they buy anything, they could get an A350 straight away and certainly a 787.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
People said that about the neighbours too (VS).

They did? Didn't they operate the A343 before launching the A346? And didn't they buy the A346 before the 773ER was available? It would be an amazing shock if BA went with the A346 because not only is the 773ER more capable, but they already operate a large 777 fleet.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
The major parts (wings & engines) are made in the UK. UK tax payer money anywhere? Apart from that full cockpit commonality with the A380 is possible.

Dumb argument. The 773ER has even more commonality (cockpit or otherwise) with their existing 777 fleet than the A346 would have with the A380, which they have not said they will evenutally buy anyway. And BA are too savvy to allow protectionism to cloud their judgement on purchasing.
 
kappel
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:48 pm

Quoting Glom (Reply 13):
So after two years, a customer can get RR on the 747ADV?

No, on the 747adv it will be just the GE. On the 787 both RR and GE are offering engines (and RR is the launch engine) and on the a350 GE will have exclusivity for 2 years (again, IIRC)
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Revelation
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 10:02 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 7):
Then again, is he insulting their partners QF for ordering them?

Of course not. QF is in a totally different situation than is BA, so its aircraft requirements are totally different.

Quoting Manni (Reply 8):
Jet Airways (10), TAP (11), Kingfisher (5), and Air China (20) have all ordered the A330 for the first time this year, while both the 787 and A350 were also offered.

While I disagree with the earlier suggestion that the A330 is now solely a stopgap, you need to consider that as others have stated in this thread that one can get A330s in as little as six months from now, whereas one cannot get B787 or A350 for several years, and this is helping A330 sales. Even B767 is getting a few sales due to the much better availability dates.

Manni, may I suggest you use the "quote selected text" button above each article? It'd make it a lot easier for us to know exactly who you are quoting.
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zeke
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 10:06 pm

Quoting Glom (Reply 17):
They did? Didn't they operate the A343 before launching the A346? And didn't they buy the A346 before the 773ER was available?

VS is on the record saying they will only ever operate quads. 747, A340, Concorde are acceptable. Bit surprising since SQ owns half of them.
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manni
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Tue Oct 11, 2005 10:35 pm

Thank you for the suggestion Revelation, I never noticed that button.
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jacobin777
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:31 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
It is not really a completely new design, it is a derivitive airplane. It will also be available with the same RR engines (except non-bleedless version) as the B-787-800.

from what I know, GE will be the exclusive supplier for the 747ADV, is there a time frame for this, I don't know, but I do think its exclusive to GE

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):

I know BA got burned a little by being a launch customer on the B-777-200ERs

as mentioned above, they weren't the launch customer for the -200ER..in fact, their first -200ER's didn't come into the fleet until 1999..these were their first RR-powered bactch of 777's.
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BlueSky1976
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 12:53 am

Given "No Launch Customer" policy of BA, I'd expect a 787 order sometime after 2008, but probably before 2010. Since 787 in service entry will be in 2008 with ANA, there will be plenty of information available within a few months how the plane is performing in real life.
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sq212
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:02 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 22):
as mentioned above, they weren't the launch customer for the -200ER..in fact, their first -200ER's didn't come into the fleet until 1999..these were their first RR-powered bactch of 777's.

Boeing website say otherwise?

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/777family/background.html

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jacobin777
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:58 am

Quoting Sq212 (Reply 24):

Boeing website say otherwise?

should have been more clear.....the first GE "ER's" were the IGW's, I think those were the one's Boeing has on their website, the first RR-powered ER's were entered into service back in 1999...the RR-powered ER's are the ones with the larger pax config, but lower cargo (and more distance)
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Glom
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:15 am

Quoting Kappel (Reply 18):
No, on the 747adv it will be just the GE. On the 787 both RR and GE are offering engines (and RR is the launch engine) and on the a350 GE will have exclusivity for 2 years (again, IIRC)

So then the OP was wrong saying BA could getthe 747ADV with RR engines.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:17 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 22):
these were their first RR-powered bactch of 777's

No, BA's first B-777-200ERs have GE90 engines.

Quoting Glom (Reply 26):
Quoting Kappel (Reply 18):
No, on the 747adv it will be just the GE. On the 787 both RR and GE are offering engines (and RR is the launch engine) and on the a350 GE will have exclusivity for 2 years (again, IIRC)

So then the OP was wrong saying BA could getthe 747ADV with RR engines.

Yes, I was wrong. The B-747-ADV is only offered with the GEnx engines from the B-787 GE powered airplanes.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:36 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Airbus today says the a330 will be in production for another 10 years

As will the A300. What's your point? For any airline considering long-term fleet renewal, as BA will in the next few years, the A330 is a dead option.

You honestly think an airline like BA would seriously evaluate any number of A330 at this point?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Short/medium range flights <4000nm? Look at the 788 range / empty weight / wing span etc..

Boeing has stated, and statistics shown by some more reputable members have shown, the 787-3/8 can excell in this segment.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
People said that about the neighbours too (VS).

Please elaborate. VS launched the A346, at a point when the 773ER wasn't available. The A346 in BA colors simply isn't going to happen.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
The major parts (wings & engines) are made in the UK. UK tax payer money anywhere? Apart from that full cockpit commonality with the A380 is possible.

That would be fine if they had A380 on order. Commonality with a non-existant fleet type is a tough sell with 40+ 777 already flying.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):

Manni, may I suggest you use the "quote selected text" button above each article? It'd make it a lot easier for us to know exactly who you are quoting.

It doesn't always work for all users. I have a fully supported browser with all plug-ins and it's often hit or miss. In fact this is the first post I've made in weeks where the quote function worked propery. Score !
 
jacobin777
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:45 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 27):
No, BA's first B-777-200ERs have GE90 engines.

This is from the BA website:

"The first British Airways Boeing 777-200ER entered service in 1999, making it the first Rolls Royce powered version of this wide-bodied, twin-engine jet. "
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kc135topboom
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Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 2:26 am

RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 11:44 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 29):
This is from the BA website:

"The first British Airways Boeing 777-200ER entered service in 1999, making it the first Rolls Royce powered version of this wide-bodied, twin-engine jet. "

This is from Boeing's web site.
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 06-Feb-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 18-Feb-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 27-Feb-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 18-Mar-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 09-Apr-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 07-May-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 23-May-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 10-Jun-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 03-Jul-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 29-Dec-1997 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 03-Feb-1998 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 13-Mar-1998 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 26-Mar-1998 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 21-Aug-1998 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 26-Jan-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 09-Feb-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 18-Mar-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 01-Apr-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 26-May-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 28-May-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 29-Jun-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 30-Jul-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 11-Aug-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER GE 22-Oct-1999 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200ER RR 07-Jan-2000 1

As you can see, 19 GE powered B-777-200ERs were delivered to BA, beginning on 6 Feb 1997, before Boeing delivered the first RR powered B-777-200ER. Additionally, 5 B-777-200s were delivered before the first ER version, all of these had GE engines.

British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200 GE 11-Nov-1995 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200 GE 28-Dec-1995 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200 GE 12-Jan-1996 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200 GE 20-May-1996 1
British Airways United Kingdom Europe 777-200 GE 28-Mar-1997 1
 
Ken777
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:07 pm

The first question would be has BA put down some refundable money for 787 production slots? I bet they have and that they would be willing to order some if the contract has some very specific performance guarantees with a right to cancel the contract.

On the 747ADV I would not be surprised to see them order some for delivery in 2009 and onward. There is no doubt in my mind that Boeing would make them a very good deal in order to get the order.

While BA might prefer to wait a while before ordering I think that the high price of fuel is sending a lot of airline financial analysts back to their spreadsheet and there is a lot of late nights trying to find the best directions for a future with high fuel costs.
 
scotron11
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:38 pm

So can anyone elaborate/speculate on why T5 will have 5 stands capable of handling the A380 if BA aren't getting any? Or are they there "just in case" or overflow? Or, maybe QF will share T5 after all?

Cheers!
 
keesje
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:59 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 28):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
People said that about the neighbor's too (VS).

Please elaborate. VS launched the A346, at a point when the 773ER wasn't available. The A346 in BA colors simply isn't going to happen.

BA bought the A346, operated them, looked at the 777-300ER and then ordered 13+13 additional a340-600s, August 2004. (AF introduced -300ER's in April) http://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/stories/2004/08/02/daily26.html

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
The B-787-800 seems to be a perfect fit for BA to replace the B-767-300ERs,



Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 28):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Short/medium range flights <4000nm? Look at the 788 range / empty weight / wing span etc..
Boeing has stated, and statistics shown by some more reputable members have shown, the 787-3/8 can excell in this segment.

Dfw looks like you are bending your assumptions.. -3  Wink

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 28):
You honestly think an airline like BA would seriously evaluate any number of A330 at this point?

They'll be ordering a "dead" or "unproven" aircraft.Seeing how many 330's were ordered in the last 12 months, I would not subscripe you assesment the A330 is dead, many "more reputable members" probably wouldn't  Smile
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
keesje
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:53 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
BA bought the A346

Should be VS as one might understand..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:15 pm

As I see it there is a shorter term need and a longer term need.

747adv - NOT going to happen in BA livery. People place too much emphasis on the commonality issue but i just dont see BA introducing a totally new frame, with GENX engines unless they were going to buy 20+ or more and there just isnt that kind of requirement at the moment, certainly while the newer 744s are still in their prime so to speak. Its all about the A380 i'm afraid. Not yet, but looking at the wider picture, given their route profile - they WILL order the A380, and by the time the 747adv is available, the A380 will be fully matured and there will be more choices available regarding versions etc - Remember why BA said they didnt want to be launch customer for the A380? what makes you think it will be any different for the 747ADV?

772LR - again, I just cant see why they would buy it. Theres no routes that the 744 flies now that the 772ER or 773ER cannot do, is there? IIRC the longest sectors BA flies are LHR-SIN/NRT and the 772ER is able to do these under the same conditions that the 744 has (ie: the occasional fuel stop if the winds are unfavourable etc). The business case would be growth in terms of new routes and I can only think of Manila, Santiago, Honolulu, and Jakarta non-stop stop that BA would maybe consider there being a business case for getting the 772LR for. It cant do Oz non-stop both ways so there is no real benefit there.

773ER - Yes. I can see BA getting 15/20 or so to replace the earliest 25 744s. Remember that the newest of BA 744s is from about 98 IIRC so the later ones are good for a very long time yet. Also remember that they are in very good condition despite the high numbers on the earlier ones. I can also see BA coming back for ten or so more 772ERs as a sweetener for the 787/773ER deal - they will need them.

787- Yes but with Trent engines. These will replace the 767s which will be snapped up like you cannot believe on the second hand charter market amongst 757 operators that use the RB211 - they can get rid of their CF6/PW40 powered 767s and use one common engine type - people say they were nuts to order them with RBs, but they will be tremendously sought after amonst charter airlines in particular - also I dare say Icelandair will be very keen.

By 2015 I see BA's Long Haul fleet as follows:

30 x 787-900 employed on the current 767 routes and some of the thinner 772 routes.
65 x 772ER
25 X 773ER
16 x A380-800
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
zvezda
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:22 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 28):
It doesn't always work for all users. I have a fully supported browser with all plug-ins and it's often hit or miss. In fact this is the first post I've made in weeks where the quote function worked propery. Score !

Interesting. I use a Mozilla/Netscape browser and have never had a problem with it.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Wed Oct 12, 2005 11:59 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 32):
So can anyone elaborate/speculate on why T5 will have 5 stands capable of handling the A380 if BA aren't getting any? Or are they there "just in case" or overflow? Or, maybe QF will share T5 after all?

I think because the terminal will be there for more than fifty years maybe, and it seems a bit silly to build something that doesnt even cater for the biggest planes of today let alone tomorrow - certainly not a clue that BA will or will not buy the A380.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
ChrisM001
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 12:13 am

Quoting ZSOFN (Reply 16):
You're right - they weren't. UA were, although many airlines were involved in the design process, including BA.

BA were the first operator for the B777/GE90 combination, and one of our aircraft (G-ZZZA if I remember correctly) was used in the flight trials as it was the 6th 777 built.

Being the launch operator can be a real pain at times - as Virgin have found out with the A340-600. The worst experience we had must have been the time that BA were introducing 5 new types into the fleet (B737-400, B747-400, B767-300, ATP and A320 were the ones I think) at approximately the same time.....ouch!!
 
cloudyapple
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Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:01 am

RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:53 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 37):
I think because the terminal will be there for more than fifty years maybe, and it seems a bit silly to build something that doesnt even cater for the biggest planes of today let alone tomorrow - certainly not a clue that BA will or will not buy the A380.

It's a trivial job to reconfigure the stands/jetty and move the centre lines. Cat E and F stands are only 15m different in span so the extra space spared by converting an F to a E probably cant be used for anything else anyway.
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:55 am

Quoting ChrisM001 (Reply 38):
Being the launch operator can be a real pain at times - as Virgin have found out with the A340-600. The worst experience we had must have been the time that BA were introducing 5 new types into the fleet (B737-400, B747-400, B767-300, ATP and A320 were the ones I think) at approximately the same time.....ouch!!

And they have said never again - hence the lack of orders for the A380 thus far.

As I said above - why do people still think they will suddenly forget this viewpoint and order the 747adv?
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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ZSOFN
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:47 am

Quoting ChrisM001 (Reply 38):
BA were the first operator for the B777/GE90 combination, and one of our aircraft (G-ZZZA if I remember correctly) was used in the flight trials as it was the 6th 777 built.

That's correct - according to "Boeing 777" by Norris & Wagner, G-ZZZA undertook 1000 cycle validation tests, building up 300 hours on the GE90s as the testbed.
 
jacobin777
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 3:37 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 30):
As you can see, 19 GE powered B-777-200ERs were delivered to BA, beginning on 6 Feb 1997, before Boeing delivered the first RR powered B-777-200ER. Additionally, 5 B-777-200s were delivered before the first ER version, all of these had GE engines.

interesting..its probably a matter of semantics as BA's first GE-based "200ER" are what they call "BOEING 777-200IGW"....so that's what the confusion might be..

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 35):
ts all about the A380 i'm afraid

not according to Walsh......seems as if the 747ADV has just as much, if not more of a probability being added to the BA fleet than The WhaleJet
"Up the Irons!"
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:18 pm

LOL Jacobin777 - read what I said about the A380 and noting the reasons why BA havent ordered it this far, explain to me, please if you would be so kind, why the 747adv has a better chance?

Example:

Early A346s - lots of issues with MX problems and heavy wings etc - later A346s bugs ironed out and its now every bit as capable as the 773ER, and does a similar job, but with four engines and the advantages that brings, at a slightly higher cost, with the disadvantages that brings. Anyone getting their A346s now are getting themselves the real deal, with the bugs ironed out. Now is a good time to be getting A346s. Must have sucked to be CX/VS etc when the EIS problems were occurring - BA cant afford to absorb that kind of problem on the scale of the size of fleet of XXL airframes they will be looking for.

So again - how will being THE launch customer for the 747ADV as you seem to think BA will be, be any different? If they are unwilling to take a risk on a plane with Trent engines that roughly, they know all about - what makes you think they'll be more keen to take on a new aircraft type with entirely new engines? Remember the early problems they had with the GE90?

So, assuming the 747adv is built (and im not sure it will - sounds too much like a marketing gambit to stem A380 orders to me, ala Sonic Cruiser) - it will not be ready to enter service before 2010, and BA probably cant get A380 slots before them.

But in 2010 do you think they will want a totally new (and it will be totally new) aircraft type entering service and the year of teething troubles it will no doubt encounter (same as any type) or do you think they will want a proven, well-established XXL type that BA's rivals have been flying very successfully for 3/4 years?

Bit of a no brainer really, i'd say. The 747advs numbers will have to be much, much better than the A380 for it to stand a chance at BA.

If BA has a requirement for a XXL type (and thats actually more debatable than people realise) then it will be the A380 - no doubt whatsoever. I'll be absolutely gobsmacked if they go for the 747adv.

Cant see it fella i'm sorry.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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Jetlagged
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:48 pm

BA has always bought long haul Boeings in preference to anything else. The executives like their trips to Seattle too much. They only got into operating A320s by chance, after absorbing BCal's small fleet. The initial reaction was to get rid ASAP, but they found how good they were and eventually ordered more and more.

So what if some of their 744s are in their late teens. A lot are quite new. Age didn't stop BA soldiering on with the 747-136s and -236s until they were practically falling apart. Remember, a fleet which is largely paid for is cheaper to operate overall, despite the lower fuel costs of newer aircraft. The 744 fleet will continue to operate economically for some while, allowing BA to wait and see whether the A380 is viable for them or whether the mature 744adv is the answer. I doubt the A350 will stand a chance, not least on capacity grounds.

There are a few airlines obsessed with fleet age (like SQ), but BA is not one of them. The new CEO may be an Airbus fan, but he will still have to overcome decades of pro-Boeing bias in the company culture.
The glass isn't half empty, or half full, it's twice as big as it needs to be.
 
ChrisM001
Posts: 65
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:19 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 43):
Bit of a no brainer really, i'd say. The 747advs numbers will have to be much, much better than the A380 for it to stand a chance at BA.

The A380 operating costs are estimated to be 15% better than a 747-400. Boeings proposal for the 747ADV is for it to be 20% better than the 747-400, so it is not worth discounting it entirely. There are a lot of cases where a route is unlikely to develop enough to justify a 50% increase in capacity, whereas a more modest increase may be more suitable.

The A380-900 will be the one to watch as far a BA are concerned IMHO. The stretch will make it even more efficient, whereas the A380-800 is carrying the penalty of the wing which has been designed for a bigger aircraft.
 
Glom
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:25 pm

Quoting Jetlagged (Reply 44):
There are a few airlines obsessed with fleet age (like SQ), but BA is not one of them. The new CEO may be an Airbus fan, but he will still have to overcome decades of pro-Boeing bias in the company culture.

Wasn't he also a GE fan? He really took over the wrong company if his biases are that important. I think we should give him a little more credit.

Quoting ChrisM001 (Reply 45):
Boeings proposal for the 747ADV is for it to be 20% better than the 747-400, so it is not worth discounting it entirely.

I think when it comes to choosing the 747ADV vs the A388, the 747ADV has a lot to offer. But when we consider that the 747ADV is the end of the line for the 747, while the A380 can be souped up a lot more, it makes the A380 more attractive for long term fleet planning.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:35 pm

My guess is that they will need to order wide bodies within 6 to 12 months if they have any requirement in the next 5 years. Will they purchase the 747ADV and the 787, well that is the big question. My guess is that they will buy the 787, and being a prime Boeing customer, slots are being held. However, Boeing can only hold them for so long, so BA need to take a decision.

Regarding the 747ADV, I think this airplane has a better chance at BA then the A380. One of the major reasons is the lessons that have been learned (risk) over the last few years, and the ability to get rid of the 747 in the future if it doesn't meet BA's goals. Currently there are limited airports that can support the A380, and as such, that is additional risk. The primary A380 target is LHR, where BA can increase the size of there small and mid size fleet to increase thier revenue (meaning 787 in place of 767s and A320s in place of 737-3)

Cheers
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:38 pm

Quoting ChrisM001 (Reply 45):
The A380-900 will be the one to watch as far a BA are concerned IMHO. The stretch will make it even more efficient, whereas the A380-800 is carrying the penalty of the wing which has been designed for a bigger aircraft

Got to say I agree.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: When Will BA Order The B-787-800, B-747-ADV?

Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:52 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 47):
One of the major reasons is the lessons that have been learned (risk) over the last few years, and the ability to get rid of the 747 in the future if it doesn't meet BA's goals. Currently there are limited airports that can support the A380, and as such, that is additional risk.

Yes but as things stand, if hypothetically speaking BA order the 747Adv, it will be the only major operator of the 747adv - im not saying it will end up being the only one, but it will not be a large group of companies that end up buying it - there are a small number of airlines with a genuine XXL aircraft requirement and of those, only really ANA, SAA, JAL, BA, PIA and AI have not yet ordered the A380 so the customer base isnt going to be all that big. Factor in a couple of surprises (say, KLM, Asiana, ANZ, minute numbers of frames each) and you still only have nine airlines that operate it - and these will likely total less than 100 frames.

Thats probably best case scenario as far as the orders are concerned - it is not going to be any easier shifting unwanted 747ADVs than it would be A380s.

As a side note i think the orders from AI, SAA, and PIA are the kickers - if Boeing does not get these to back up whatever they get from ANA and JAL then i think the project will not go ahead.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???

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