skibum9
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Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:19 am

According to the local Cincinnati news, OH has called all of its Cincinnati-based workers to a banquet facility near the airport this evening. While an announcement as to the topic of the meeting was not made, the news is speculating that it is about the fate of the airline.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/wlwt/20051012/lo_wlwt/2993177
Tailwinds!!!
 
RJNUT
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 10:20 am

Leave DL and buy into indy air and help them buy more airbus... All regionals should unite and leave their frickin legacies behind!!!!
 
Delta4eva
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 11:48 am

Quoting RJNUT (Reply 1):
Leave DL and buy into indy air and help them buy more airbus... All regionals should unite and leave their frickin legacies behind!!!!

Well considering that Comair is owned completely by DL, I don't think thats gonna happen. I know it was a joke....but I just thought I'd correct you that OH is essentially DL.
FLY DELTA JETS
 
lowrider
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 12:15 pm

My guess is a 20-25% RIF for flight crews, and corresponding cuts elsewhere in the company. Aircraft will be sold, parked, transferred to XX DCI carrier, or returned to the lessor. Possibly pay/benefit cuts as well. There has been extensive hinting at this for weeks. Anyone else have a guess.
Proud OOTSK member
 
akjetBlue
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 12:20 pm

word was that Daddy Delta wants to sell 60 of comairs RJs, but i heard that over almost a month ago...
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DLKAPA
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 12:47 pm

Quoting RJNUT (Reply 1):
Leave DL and buy into indy air and help them buy more airbus... All regionals should unite and leave their frickin legacies behind!!!!

No, they shouldn't. They all operate mostly CRJ-ERJ fleets and the CASM baggage that comes with it. Look what happened to indy air when they left their legacy behind. Regional operators are not airlines, they are vendors, providers of a service. That service is flying around people where/when the legacies tell them to. No Regional sells seats on their own airplanes, they don't sell seats period. They don't do marketing in the tratitional "Fly with us" sense, their marketing departments are much smaller, and court to only a few people in the "Use our airplanes" sense. The legacies do the marketing and sell the seats, then pay the regional vendors to fly people around, this is the only reason why regionals can make money. They are more asset brokers than airlines, they lease out their planes at a cost-plus basis, so that they can cover their costs and make profits. If they all go independent, on top of having to worry about selling their own seats, they also have to get a much larger marketing department to get people to "fly with us," plus, CMIIW they also would have to pay the taxes/fees at airports, which again (CMIIW) they don't do as vendors.
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
flyinryan99
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 12:57 pm

Would "at-risk" flying be an option for Comair? Like have a percentage of their flights be "at-risk" so they could set their own schedule and fly routes that could make them money and just pay DL a fee for the rez and name. This way they could fly routes they think they could make money..etc. Any ideas?

Ryan
 
Lono
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:30 pm

so no news from the OH camp...???
Is it bad?????
Wally Bird Ruled the Skys!
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:48 pm

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 5):
Look what happened to indy air when they left their legacy behind.

Indy Air would have been fine if they had initially gone into Global Distribution Systems. Their hesitance to do so, combined with other missteps they made later that exacerbated that problem (parking airplanes, dropping frequencies, etc.) killed them. Fact is, when they started operations, Independence had United beaten in terms of frequency on every single route they flew, and given the exposure that a GDS would have given them, would have been even on price (yet still keeping yields reasonable), and likely ahead of United on costs, as financials show that airlines' small-jet operations do much better for the legacies when they are on an at-risk basis (like formerly ASA and currently Comair, American Eagle and Executive) versus a fee-per-departure basis (which nearly all non-wholly-owned regionals with jets operate under). Unfortunately for them, they went from a high-frequency business-geared airline without exposure (but with yields) to a low-frequency leisure-geared airline without yields, and as such, the airline is likely on its last legs.
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drewwright
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:56 pm

Funny...apparently Mesaba is announcing closure of the CVG base tonight. I wonder what the news at Comair is...

[Edited 2005-10-13 07:10:28]
 
N1120A
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:01 pm

Quoting Flyinryan99 (Reply 6):
Would "at-risk" flying be an option for Comair? Like have a percentage of their flights be "at-risk" so they could set their own schedule and fly routes that could make them money and just pay DL a fee for the rez and name. This way they could fly routes they think they could make money..etc. Any ideas?

Comair can't fly at risk, they are a subsidiary of Delta. They used to, however, market their own flights

Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 8):
Independence had United beaten in terms of frequency on every single route they flew, and given the exposure that a GDS would have given them, would have been even on price (yet still keeping yields reasonable), and likely ahead of United on costs, as financials show that airlines' small-jet operations

DH's costs are doccumented as significantly higher than those of United.
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SHUPirate1
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:10 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 10):
DH's costs are doccumented as significantly higher than those of United.

I highly doubt they are higher than what United is paying their express partners to operate those planes, on a route-over-route basis...

I would love to see THOSE numbers from last summer, although they aren't readily available.

[Edited 2005-10-13 07:11:26]
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flyboy7974
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:11 pm

a good friend of mine and i were talking monday, and she just moved over to comair after jumping ship from indy air, she said all throughout rj class that rumors coming are that delta wants to go back to the props, that they cant afford to fly an rj nearly as cheap as the props could on routes shorter than 200 miles or so. even since she started flying for comair out cvg, she even says the rj doesnt fly short routes well at all that are in the 100 mile range. the other night she had to hold going into dayton because the flight was so full and also so short, that upon approaching dayton they were too heavy.
 
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mariner
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:39 pm

Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 8):
Indy Air would have been fine if they had initially gone into Global Distribution Systems.

Indy had a CASM in excess of 16 cents. How was GDS going to help that?

cheers

mariner
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LongbowPilot
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:42 pm

I do recall that Turboprops are the most efficient forms of engine.. Correct me if I'm wrong. I also remember a concept design someone had of a MD-80 type airframe with 2 turboprop pushers. Anyone know the answers?
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:57 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 13):
Indy had a CASM in excess of 16 cents. How was GDS going to help that?

Yields were VERY strong at the time, according to the numbers I am looking at, 20.86 cents. The problem for Independence at the time was simple: getting people in seats. Unfortunately for them, by the time they got into a GDS, they had gotten rid of a third of their fleet and cut schedules, which did nothing but drive down yields (lower frequency, meaning fewer time-sensitive passengers willing to pay their highest fares, meaning lower yields) and drive up costs (some costs that were fixed by plane type were now spread over 58 planes instead of 87), and created the abyss they were in. As I have said before, if Independence had put themselves into the GDS' immediately, Kerry Skeen would probably be on the Airline CEO version of Mount Rushmore, rather than the Airline CEO laughingstock.

There are other points that I could easily bash Independence on (which have been rehashed so many times I would rather not repeat them), however, a sound business plan, contrary to popular belief (and I will be THRILLED to point this out to Mike Boyd) is NOT one of them.
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
DLKAPA
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 3:02 pm

Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 15):
There are other points that I could easily bash Independence on (which have been rehashed so many times I would rather not repeat them), however, a sound business plan, contrary to popular belief (and I will be THRILLED to point this out to Mike Boyd) is NOT one of them.

I'm intrigued, how can a business plan that has a 17 cent (and rising, as they continue to dump planes) CASM be sound?
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 3:17 pm

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 16):
I'm intrigued, how can a business plan that has a 17 cent (and rising, as they continue to dump planes) CASM be sound?

Their current one isn't. However, they had a sound business plan (minus the GDS situation) when they started out, with the aforementioned very solid yields that overcame their admittedly high CASM. The problem was that, due to their reluctance to participate in a GDS system, they had abysmal loads, and to fix that problem, they decided to shed planes (raising costs) and frequencies (lowering yields), and that has turned their business plan from one that was workable if they could get more passengers in seats to one that is not workable at all. Go back to their initial 2003-issue business plan, and it bears almost no resemblance to what they are presently doing right now, with the exception of the Dulles hub, and the fact that both use regional jets.
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mariner
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 3:42 pm

Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 15):
a sound business plan

They were an effective new airline. They had no market. All their passengers had been United passengers.

And United retained the majority of those passengers.

In effect, Indy had to start from scratch or steal. In neither case were they going to get great load factors for at least their first six months, probably a year.

There is not an infinite number of people wanting to fly. The market then was probably at saturation level and - ar least in terms of United's express routes from IAD - Indy doubled it overnight.

Unless they could find a way to break even with a low load factor and a high CASM, they could only lose money.

Which is exactly what happened.

It is not as if any of this was a surprise to anyone (except, I guess, Mr. Skeen). It was predicted. Even I could see that they were in trouble when the airline was first announced, and abandoned my plan to buy some shares.

And I surely don't have a Harvard MBA.

cheers

mariner
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syncmaster
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:52 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 18):
They were an effective new airline. They had no market. All their passengers had been United passengers.

And United retained the majority of those passengers.

Exactly, people where going to pay the extra $25-$75 (give or take some depending on the route, and I'm just using this as a number to put out) if it meant that they got their MileagePlus miles and eventually their free tickets. Plus Uniteds route structure and every other aspect about them are totally different, so they really can't even be compared.  Sad
 
VgnAtl747
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:16 pm

I don't know if this has any relevance, but at a company meeting a couple months ago, OH's president Buttrel said, "don't be suprised if regionals start using turboprops on shorter single segment hops" -- or something to that effect, don't remember exactly...

Also... Comair has been going around, buying airstairs from US Airways, and shipping them to MCO... why? I don't know. A contractor for OH came to my OH station last week and picked up airstairs that US Airways no longer uses, he said that Comair bought them, and he's trucking them to MCO. He had also been to ISP and another station (forget which one) to get more.

All of our RJ's have stairs... why does Comair need airstairs in MCO? New aircraft type that doesn't have built-in stairs? Turboprops? ERJ?

Could be part of the announcement, but I don't know... just my $0.02.
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Boeing757/767
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:35 pm

Free-thinking, left-leaning secularist
 
gkirk
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:36 pm

Are Comair finally going to retire their 737-200s?  duck 
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skibum9
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 10:08 pm

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 22):
Are Comair finally going to retire their 737-200s?

???? Comair, at least OH, never had 737-200s. They are a regional subsidiary for DL that flies nothing but CRJs, 40, 50 and 70 seaters. You may be thinking of the other Comair, that I think is in Africa.

The scoop is that OH will be targeting a cost savings of $70 million. To do this they will remove 30 aircraft from its operations. These aircraft will all be 50 seaters, however they say in the long-term they will go after cost reductions for the 40 and 70 seaters (probably lease renegotiations). In addition, they will lay-off 1,000 people and adjust pay and benefits to be in-line with other regional carriers, starting with salary and non-union personnel first. Long term they say they will focus on building on the 70+ seat aircraft market.

Last night on the news, they interviewed the head of OH's pilot union, who said that it is not their fault that DL is bankrupt and as such they don't see why they should give consessions. This will be an interesting battle as it is well known that OH pilots have one of the highest pay rates among the regionals.
Tailwinds!!!
 
gkirk
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 10:10 pm

Quoting Skibum9 (Reply 23):
ou may be thinking of the other Comair, that I think is in Africa.

 Wink
You need to make it clear in your title that you are speaking about a US regional carrier and not the BA franchise carrier in South Africa  Wink
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motif1
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 10:16 pm

Why would they get rid of the 50 seaters and not the 40 seaters?

Is it because they got the 40 seaters at a very low price?

I am flying them on a 40 seater tomorrow (BOS-DCA) and there are 5 seats left. I think that if it were a 50 seater more people would have purchased tickets for this flight.

Regards,

Motif1
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VgnAtl747
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 11:10 pm

That yahoo article has slightly different facts than the internal memo, which is calling for 600-1000 staff reductions, not just a flat 1,000.

Motif1:

Hopefully the 30 aircraft DL is removing from our fleet will the the older 50 seaters. Which is my guess for why they're removing the 50's. The older aircraft frequently break down, which drastically increases the operating costs and degrades on-time performance. My airport frequently handles ships 7011, 7013, 7017, and 7127, which we often have mechanical delays with. Although safe and airworthy, these aircraft are just old...
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SNATH
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 11:56 pm

Quoting Motif1 (Reply 25):
Is it because they got the 40 seaters at a very low price?

Wild guess: the current rules are that a plane should have at least one F/A per 42 (I think it is) passengers. On a 40-seater, you can get away with one F/A. One a 50-seater you have to have two. So, even though they might make a bit more money by putting a few more passengers in the plane, they will also have to pay for an extra F/A.

Tony
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BNAflyer78
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Thu Oct 13, 2005 11:58 pm

Quoting SNATH (Reply 27):
On a 40-seater, you can get away with one F/A. One a 50-seater you have to have two.

Tell me the last time you saw two FAs on a 50-set RJ....
Long live the Widget!
 
SNATH
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 12:24 am

Quoting BNAflyer78 (Reply 28):
Tell me the last time you saw two FAs on a 50-set RJ....

 Smile

Could it be because they do not fill them in order to stay under the passenger limit for one F/A?

Tony
Nikon: we don't want more pixels, we want better pixels.
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 12:32 am

Quoting SNATH (Reply 27):
Wild guess: the current rules are that a plane should have at least one F/A per 42 (I think it is) passengers.

The rule is one flight attendant per 50 passengers. Therefore, having one flight attendant on a CRJ/ERJ is perfectly fine.
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
BNAflyer78
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 12:32 am

Quoting SNATH (Reply 29):
Could it be because they do not fill them in order to stay under the passenger limit for one F/A?

Uh, no.....why buy a 50-seat RJ instead of a 40-seater just to not fill it up??

According to FAR Section 121.391, an airplane with more than 19 seats but less than 51 seats is required to have ONE flight attendant. More than 50 seats but less than 101 seats requires two.....
Long live the Widget!
 
PVD757
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 12:34 am

Does anyone have a break-down on Comair's fleet?:

# of 40 seaters
# of 50 seaters
# of 70 seaters
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:09 am

Quoting Flyinryan99 (Reply 6):
Would "at-risk" flying be an option for Comair?

This raises an interesting question though - assume while in Chapter 11, NW is able to renegotiate their cost-plus contracts with their regional partners into at-risk flying. Much like everything else in the cost structure, if one carrier achieves a much lower cost for something, others will clamor for it as well in the name of remaining competitive. Suddenly the REGIONAL picture changes dramatically for carriers like CO, US, F9, and so forth. Anyone who doesn't own their regional subsidiary outright could be faced with a significant competitive disadvantage.

Quoting LongbowPilot (Reply 14):
I also remember a concept design someone had of a MD-80 type airframe with 2 turboprop pushers.

I know what you're referring to. IIRC, it was an unducted fan design on an MD80 airframe.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
KarlB737
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:25 am

Courtesy: WCPO-TV

Comair Announces Job, Salary Cuts

http://www.wcpo.com/news/2005/local/10/13/comair.html

Video Report:

http://wcpo.com/cgi-bin/vembedwxtrac...ews%20Story%20Video&banner=wcpocom

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Courtesy: WLWT-TV

Comair To Slash 1,000 Jobs, Cut Pay

http://www.channelcincinnati.com/news/5091232/detail.html

Video Report:

http://www.channelcincinnati.com/video/5094685/index.html

[Edited 2005-10-13 19:45:07]
 
 
ChiGB1973
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 5:16 am

I know at ATA we had 200 seat 757s that required 4 flight attendants. So, it is 1 f/a per 50 passengers.

50 pax = 1 FA
51 pax = 2 FAs
100 = 2 FAs
101 = 3 FAs

Etc...

M
 
srbmod
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 5:27 am

Quoting Flyboy7974 (Reply 12):
she said all throughout rj class that rumors coming are that delta wants to go back to the props,



Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 20):
I don't know if this has any relevance, but at a company meeting a couple months ago, OH's president Buttrel said, "don't be suprised if regionals start using turboprops on shorter single segment hops" -- or something to that effect, don't remember exactly...

I wonder if OH (and EV) retiring the EMB-120s so early wasn't such a good idea? I wonder how many ex-DL Connection Brasilias are still stored? Perhaps Delta Connection Inc can trade some of the older RJs in for some Dash 8s?

I think EV made a mistake by not renewing the leases on some of their ATR-72s. For flights to cities like CHA, AVL, TRI, MOB, CSG, FLO, GSP, GNV, ILM, AGS, MCN, GPT, DHN, MGM, MYR, FAY, TLH, VPS, PFN, BQK, and PNS, the ATR is a better a/c costwise to operate. And has better cargo capacity than the CRJ-200, especially in regards to cities like DHN, VPS, PNS, FAY, and CSG, which have a lot of military passengers (and their stuff). Back in the Brasilia days, there would be a backlog of bags to some of those cities (especially FAY) because the EMB-120 couldn't handle all of the bags, and bags would have to be left @ ATL to eventually get onto an ATR flight, which still would end up leaving bags because they'd run out of room. EV would have been smart to renew those leases and try to get additional ATRs to run more of the shortest hops.
 
usnseallt82
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 5:28 am

Probably something along the lines of what AA's Eagle flights just announced.....cancelling a butt load of flights.

Other than that, maybe they're going to merge with WN.  bigthumbsup 
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ouboy79
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 5:37 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 24):
You need to make it clear in your title that you are speaking about a US regional carrier and not the BA franchise carrier in South Africa

You're apparently the only one that wasn't able to figure it out.
 
motif1
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 5:48 am

It may sound stupid but I'd love to fly on a prop aircraft. I have only flown commercial jets so far. I hope that the regional carriers go back to use them (if it makes sense economically of course)

Cheers,

Motif1
Not only is this incomprehensible but the ink is ugly and the paper is from the wrong kind of tree
 
SNATH
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RE: Big Comair Announcement

Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:26 am

Quoting BNAflyer78 (Reply 31):
Uh, no.....why buy a 50-seat RJ instead of a 40-seater just to not fill it up??

You might buy it, planning to put two F/As on it, only to realise after you buy it that it's more economical to abuse it as a 40-seater...

Quoting BNAflyer78 (Reply 31):
According to FAR Section 121.391, an airplane with more than 19 seats but less than 51 seats is required to have ONE flight attendant. More than 50 seats but less than 101 seats requires two.....

...but having said that, it seems that you're right and I was wrong: the limit for one F/A is 50 passengers, not 42 as I thought. So, that's the end of that. Thanks for correcting me!

Tony
Nikon: we don't want more pixels, we want better pixels.

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