CV990
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Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:46 am

Hi!

This year the production of the 757 finnally ended after more than 20 years. I look to this airplane and the niche he got and now people need to think that one of these days the 757 will need to be replaced. I looked to the 757 Production List and I found that some of the big 757 operators have already some pretty old 757. I will not say that in the next 2 or 3 years they will need to be replaced but in the next decade I think both Airbus and Boeing should consider projecting another airplane of this class. The 757 is not a common airliner, I would say that it's almost an hybrid! We can see both flying domestic and also flying international and even intercontinental. Let's see:

US - The oldest 757 examples come from 1982
DL - The oldest 757 examples come from 1984
NW - The oldest 757 examples come from 1985
AA - The oldest 757 examples come from 1989
UA - The oldest 757 examples come from 1989
CO - The oldest 757 examples come from 1994

If in one way AA, UA, and specially CO can have a few more years in advance with their 757's. Both DL, US and NW have 20 years or more of operation, of course I'm talking about older examples. People can say that for example both 737-900 and the A321 could indeed replace the 757 in the future, but when I look to those planes I don't see them has truly 757 replacement, specially in the intercontinental market! Is it possible that the 787-3 can absorve the 757 class? I really don't think so! I think that both Boeing and Airbus should start to develop the 797 and the A360 ( or whatever designation they would like... ) from 2010 on, or even before that to fill the needs of some airlines that will probably look with nice eyes to a new airliner in this class.
Regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
DLPMMM
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:55 am

I heard the first inklings (I would not rate it as a credible source as it was an airline analysist) of Boeing starting to design a replacement for the 737 based on 787 composite technology. It could make sense to design the 737 replacement to be scalable to replace the 757 as well and perhaps leave the small end of the market to the up and coming rj manufacturers and Airbus. Airbus might have their development hands full between the A380, A400, and A350 programs.

But it is all just speculation.
 
Aviation
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:57 am

I hope the 757 is never replaced  Smile

Its a beauty alright!

Thanks,
Aaron J Nicoli
Signed, Aaron Nicoli - Trans World Airlines Collector
 
zvezda
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:00 am

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 1):
I heard the first inklings (I would not rate it as a credible source as it was an airline analysist) of Boeing starting to design a replacement for the 737 based on 787 composite technology. It could make sense to design the 737 replacement to be scalable to replace the 757 as well and perhaps leave the small end of the market to the up and coming rj manufacturers and Airbus.

The internal Boeing name for the B737/B757 replacement is Y1. However, as long as the order backlog for the B737NG stays as long as it is now, Boeing will not start serious development of Y1.
 
dean
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:03 am

Maybe 737-900X (or ER) could be a replacement...
Also, I like the design of the 757 too.
Airbus doesn't have an aircraft between A320 family and A330. They have the A321 as a competitor of 757. Why should Boeing replace the 757 with a brandnew type? I think the 737-900 is good for this job  Smile
 
zvezda
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:11 am

Quoting Dean (Reply 4):
Maybe 737-900X (or ER) could be a replacement...
Also, I like the design of the 757 too.
Airbus doesn't have an aircraft between A320 family and A330. They have the A321 as a competitor of 757. Why should Boeing replace the 757 with a brandnew type? I think the 737-900 is good for this job

For missions that the B737-900 can perform, the operating costs are lower than those of a B757. However, there are many B757 missions that a B737-900 cannot perform.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:13 am

This topic is so done, but here it is in a nutshell, discussed many times.

783/8 will replace early 762 and 752 planes for some carriers (not a one to one size swap, but the oldest will be retired, newer planes of that size will go on those routes, and the 787 will take over the routes that could use upsizing anyway. 739ER and A321 can take over as well on some routes that the 752 was overkill for. Not one for one replacement there either, but still fits the mission of the 752 in some markets. For that matter A320 and 738 can also take over for 752 routes of 2000nm or less. 3:2 replacement creates more frequency.

That only works for the first few years of the 787, but then the 757 fleet gets older and older.

Longer term, it isn't a "rumor" that the 737 and 752 will be replaced by a composite "Y1" model. Whether it will be like the 737NG and only offer one wing, or like the 787 and offer two wing/range options is up for debate. I believe the latter, with 4 sizes, the smaller 2 available in 3000nm range, and the larger 2 available in both 3000nm and 5000nm versions. The largest will be larger than the 752 and smaller than the 753. My opinion is you will see 1 class sizes of 149, 170, 199, 230 (2-class 135, 149, 174, 199). There would be a new engine family devoted to this plane with a wider thrust range than now, but commonality to integrate better into the fleet (unlike the 737/757 now).

Airbus would be wise to do the same, and not just "NG" the A320. Considering the A320 weight, I don't think doing an A350 job on it will work either. It need not be new in FUSELAGE SHAPE (why mess with a great thing?), but there needs to be a real change in weight and range for that better, and a true 757 replacement, not the the A321 half-solution they have now.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:28 am

I hope any 757 replacement has the same thrust to weght ratio, and the same kick@$$ profile.


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ikramerica
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:33 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
I hope any 757 replacement has the same thrust to weght ratio, and the same kick@$$ profile.

I would bet that if my hunch pays off, the engine family will be such that airlines that want a higher thrust version of the 3000nm plane could have one with little changed besides a higher rated engine than the standard version and different procedures for takeoff.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Newark777
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:37 am

Isn't one of the advantages of the 757 the ability to get out of short and hot and high airports? Is there any other large narrowbody with this ability?

Harry
Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
 
CV990
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 3:55 pm

Hi!

I know that sometime ago Airbus came with an idea of developing the Airbus A330-100, I think that could be a good compromise. But I feel that either Airbus and Boeing still want to wait let's say 2 or 3 years before they come up with something new.
Regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
CPH757
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 6:44 pm

I don't see the need for it right away. Sure, some of the 757's are old, but many of them can relatively easy be replaced by the 737-900 and 321's. This will mainly be seen on domestic US routes and European charter.

The intercontinental 757's have found some niche. But eventually there are adequate 757's out there which won't be fully depreciated for many years to come. These can serve this market.
Last flight: SAW-CPH on H9 on 02/11/09 - Next Flights: 23/12/09 CPH-AAL on QI, 30/12/09 CPH-LHR on SK, 19/01/10 CPH-CDG-
 
Socrates17
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:06 pm

Alas. What a beautiful A/C. What a fabulous takeoff. You can almost imagine that it takes off from standing on its tail "the way God and Robert Anson Heinlein decreed that (it) should."
You Can't Take the Sky from Me
 
Orion737
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:08 pm

Newark777 is right about the ability of the 757 at hot and high airfields. The321 is a poor performer in that field. I am sick of the 321 being said is a 757 replacement. It neither has the range, capacity or performance capabilities of the 757.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:48 pm

The B737-900ER seems a good Successor.
regds
MEL
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CV990
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:21 pm

Hi guys!

Yeah I know that when we talk about the replacement in the future of the 757 people get quite emotional!!! I also agree that the plane is great and when it needs to be replaced both Airbus and Boeing will need to come out with a product truly top-quality! But life is like that, we can't avoid that any longer, specially taking in mind that 757 production is over!!! It almost reminds me when I discussed with my friends in late 70's what's gonna replace the 727!!! the plane was excelent, lot's of airlines had them and we couldn't find out any sucessor!!!!! When Boeing came out with the 757 every one said no way that new plane would replace the 727. Now we look back and see that most airlines found out other airplanes to do that task. Same with 757 one day!
Regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
3201
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:03 am

Quoting CV990 (Reply 15):
in late 70's what's gonna replace the 727!!! the plane was excelent, lot's of airlines had them and we couldn't find out any sucessor!!!!!

Yeah, back then the B757 was too big and expensive to replace the B727 (sound like the B787?) and the MD80 series (and later the new bigger B737's) were the right size but not enough range/payload combo, especially at hot/high fields (sound like the B739/A321?).
7 hours aint long-haul
 
CV990
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:14 am

Hi 3201!

Well we might be seeing "this movie again!!!" with the 757 versus 787! We have now, what? 3 versions of the 787? Maybe Boeing will come up with another "type 757" version in the future!!! That would be excelent! Can we think about a shorter 787???
regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
JetMaster
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:18 am

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 13):
Newark777 is right about the ability of the 757 at hot and high airfields. The321 is a poor performer in that field.

Most B757 customers do not need its "hot and high" performance.

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 13):
I am sick of the 321 being said is a 757 replacement. It neither has the range, capacity or performance capabilities of the 757.

"Performance" is relative. Due to its lower weight the A321 is in most cases more economical for airlines which do not need the B757's range and T/O performance. The B757's capacity advantage is only marginal, however the A321's cargo capability is significantly better and offers more flexibility.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
zvezda
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:22 am

Quoting CV990 (Reply 17):
Can we think about a shorter 787???

No, the B787 will probably be stretched again to the B787-10, but it will not be shortened. Instead, Y1 will replace both the B737NG and the B757.
 
Orion737
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:23 am

The 757 is much more flexible than the 321 in what it can do. It is both at home on long, thin toutes as well as useful for shorter, higher density routes and can operate from short runways with a full load of passengers.
 
CV990
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:38 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):
Y1 will replace both the B737NG and the B757.

Hi!

That looks to me so distant..... I can understand Y1 replacing the 757 but the 737NG already???? Doesn't make much sense the 757 beeing around that long and be replaced at the same time!
Let's see this:

737-600 - Started operation from June 1998 with SAS
737-700 - Started operation from April 1997 with Southwest
737-800 - Started operation from February 1998 with Hapag-Lloyd
737-900 - Started operation from March 2001 with Alaska

If we take in mind that normally it takes between 20/25 years for a model to stay around we are talking that only from maybe 2017 that Y1 Boeing will have something comming up, and at that time most of the 757's will be like 30 + years old??? It is difficult for me to accept that!
regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
ken4556
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:48 am

Many airlines decided to retire aircraft, like the 727 for example, because the were not efficient anymore due to 3-man crew and/or fuel efficency. Thus, they retired them before or as major checks were required.

Since the 757 is still are very efficient aircraft, I believe the airlines will keep them and perform the major checks on them; thereby, not requiring a immeadate replacement.

I am not sure the 757 are going to be retired at the 20 or 25 year mark as happened with many other aircraft types.
 
mytravel330
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:55 am

Evan as an Airbus supporter i have admired the B757 for many years and will be sad when the last one flying retires in some 25/30 years time, i have flown in 757's many times and loved everyone of those flights, its a good looking sleek aircraft and will be very hard to replace if only on looks alone, it has a distinct shape that we have come to admire and love.
 
JetMaster
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:59 am

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 20):
The 757 is much more flexible than the 321 in what it can do.

Depends on which aspect you are referring to. For many airlines the A321 might be the more flexible aircraft (cargo, commonality...)

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 20):
It is both at home on long, thin toutes

Though it has been replaced on many long thin routes by B738 and A32X series, especially in the US. And you don't find that many "long" routes in Europe.

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 20):
as well as useful for shorter, higher density routes

But the lighter, the better, especially on short hauls.

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 20):
and can operate from short runways with a full load of passengers.

Not a major aspect on a global scale.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
Orion737
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:05 am

Giving the example of a British inclusive tour carrier. The 757 is useful for them as it can operate on long haul transatlantic flights from regional airports which may not be feasible with larget aircraft and certainly isnt possible with a 321.

They also can get in and out of very short island runways and with a full payload (smaller greek Islands) where the 321 would have payload issues on take off.

They are at home on runs to TFS or on runs to the Carribean. I believe German IT carriers find this useful too!
 
FCYTravis
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:10 am

The A321 in the US has been limited to exactly one operator... US Airways.

It hasn't particularly found a market niche here.
USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
 
JetMaster
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:12 am

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 25):
Giving the example of a British inclusive tour carrier. The 757 is useful for them as it can operate on long haul transatlantic flights from regional airports which may not be feasible with larget aircraft and certainly isnt possible with a 321.

These tour operators are not a majority among B757 customers.

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 25):
They are at home on runs to TFS or on runs to the Carribean. I believe German IT carriers find this useful too!

Besides one B752, only B753 are left in Germany and those don't compare in size.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
JetMaster
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:15 am

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 26):

It hasn't particularly found a market niche here.

No surprise given the large B757 fleets everywhere.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
ikramerica
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:20 am

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 13):
Newark777 is right about the ability of the 757 at hot and high airfields. The321 is a poor performer in that field. I am sick of the 321 being said is a 757 replacement. It neither has the range, capacity or performance capabilities of the 757.

But for airlines with large 757 fleets, they don't need ALL their planes to do this service. So if they also fly A32X or 73X fleets, the 739ER and 321 replace the 757 on many routes where it is "under used." That means the older 757s go, the younger ones stay for the longest routes and the hottest routes, pushing the need for LIKE replacement a few years further than it first seems.

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 18):
Most B757 customers do not need its "hot and high" performance.

Actually, most do, but not for all their routes.

Quoting CV990 (Reply 21):
If we take in mind that normally it takes between 20/25 years for a model to stay around we are talking that only from maybe 2017 that Y1 Boeing will have something comming up, and at that time most of the 757's will be like 30 + years old??? It is difficult for me to accept that!
regards

The 757 EIS'd Jan 1, 2003, and even at 30 years, that means that a "replacement" needs to happen by 2013, which means 787/358 and 739/321 replacing those early aircraft, need be.

As for the 737, it's not that long. 731 and 732 came first, then the 732Adv, then the 733, then 734 and 735, then the 737NG, over a string of 30 years. But of course nobody of consequence is flying the 731 or 732 and barely anyone is still flying the 732Adv. But using the 30 year rule 737NG should have been EOLed at EIS.

787 will EIS in 2008, replacing the 767 far sooner than any Y1 replaces the 737 "family" , just showing there are no hard rules.

All that said, I think the Y1 is coming sooner than many think, as Boeing has stated for a while that the real future growth is in the 125-225 seat market, far more than the 787/330/350/340/777/747Adv/380 market combined.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
FCYTravis
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:24 am

Agreed, given the vast number of "Classic" 737s and MD-80s still in service with US airlines especially.
USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
 
ChiGB1973
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 5:24 am

I think they will rank up there with the MD-11 when it comes to the freight companies. Very desired and will be around for many moons.

M
 
zvezda
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 5:35 am

Quoting CV990 (Reply 21):
If we take in mind that normally it takes between 20/25 years for a model to stay around we are talking that only from maybe 2017 that Y1 Boeing will have something comming up, and at that time most of the 757's will be like 30 + years old??? It is difficult for me to accept that!

It is not clear that the 20-25 year replacement cycle will hold through the transition to composite fuselage aircraft. If the advantages are as great as some believe, then aluminium fuselage airliners may be obsolete 10-15 years from now.

I don't know when Y1 will be developed. I don't think Boeing have decided yet. As long as Boeing have a huge backlog of orders for the B737NG, then it makes little sense to rush development of Y1.

I still believe there is a small chance that Y3 will preceed Y1. As unlikely as it already seems, it would become even less likely upon the formal launch of the B747Adv.
 
CV990
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 6:38 am

Hi!

That's a good point ChiGB1973!!! I can clearly see the 757 has a great freighter in the future with lot's of potencialities!!! It will be almost like the DC-8 Super Sixties - Converted Super Seventies - that still fly now with 40 years or more!!!
regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
ACdreamliner
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 6:52 am

it was my understanding that Boeing said the 739X will take the bottom end of the market, with the 783 taking the top end, and those that need the extra legs, i.e. the EWR-EDI run would be too long for the 9X, while the 300 version could do it (the route could support it)

G
Where are you going?
 
A350
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:10 am

Quoting Orion737 (Reply 13):
I am sick of the 321 being said is a 757 replacement. It neither has the range, capacity or performance capabilities of the 757.



I think nobody here in the forum claims that the A321 can compete with the 757 in the fields of range and take off performance. However, both are often not needed, especially here in Europe, but also on many US routes. If you just fly 1500nm between two large airports the A321 gets the job done, and does it cheaper.

A350
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Soon The 757 Will Need To Be Replaced!

Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:25 am

Two things:

Some airlines will upsize to the 787-3 in markets that can meet the demand for the larger bird.

Others will downsize to the 737-8/9 or A-320/321 or whatever else is behind closed doors.

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