LipeGIG
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TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:43 am

Now it's official. TAM is expanding its network and is changing one of their frequencies GRU-CDG (nowadays 14 per week), to one GRU-REC-CDG.
The new weekly service will be operated on fridays (REC-CDG) and sundays (CDG-REC):

Flight JJ8088
GRU ETD 19:45
REC ETA 21:50
REC ETD 22:40
CDG ETA 11:45 (+1)

Flight JJ8089
CDG ETD 19:35
REC ETA 01:10 (+1)
REC ETD 02:00 (+1)
GRU ETA 06:20 (+1)

This JJ flight is not one of the 3 frequencies requested by JJ to Brazilian DOT (CERNAI). TAM would announce 3 more frequencies (expect to be a Daily flight GRU-CDG, but as per this change, we can expect more diversion from GRU, which helds very good service to CDG with 35 weekly flights)

REC is nowadays a top ten Brazilian Airport, a city with 1,4 million people capital of Pernambuco state (with around 8 million people). Recently has been announced a major investment from PDVSA (Venezuela) and Petrobras for a new Oil Refinery (a US$ 2,2 billions investment). It's an important touristic destination in Northeast Brazil and also a strong confirmation that Brazilian Government is acting to improve air connections from Northeast to Europe (and soonest to US)

Very good news to Brazil, Northeast, and well done TAM for this new frontier.

Regards,
Felipe

[Edited 2005-10-14 03:49:38]
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
sampa737
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Fri Oct 14, 2005 11:20 am

That really is exciting for the northeast. Perhaps that area of the country is finally getting noticed and recognized for business and tourism. Brasil is one of the world's secrets when it comes to tourist destinations, particularly the northeast including smaller capital cities such as Maceio and Aracaju. Makes one wonder when AA will begin service from MIA! The REC airport is not at all what it was just a few years back. Parabens to REC and TAM!
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:42 pm

Indeed good news, but I wonder what difference only one frequency can stand for to pax between CDG and REC. It's really too few. I hope they increase frequencies.

By the way.. How is TAM one weekly SSA-MIA doing? There will be charters from CDG to REC as of next year as well.

Quoting Sampa737 (Reply 1):
Makes one wonder when AA will begin service from MIA!

Very soon!!! US-Brazil Bilateral is already under revision and extra flights will be granted to US carriers.

It's happening a big decentralization of flights from GRU and airlines are seeing other airports and regions are profitable as well. GIG and Northeast are examples. Other airports are to be announced and you can expect a flood of flights launched to secondary cities next year from TP, AA, DL, LH, G3 (BSB, MCZ, MAO, CNF)... It's extremely tiring making detours to GRU.
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Fri Oct 14, 2005 4:54 pm

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
Very good news to Brazil, Northeast, and well done TAM for this new frontier.

Excellent news. As you mentioned, CDG-GRU route has very, very tough competition with 35 weekly flights operated by RG, TAM and AF. This is yet another interesting niche market explored by TAM, so as to move away from the over-crowded GRU hub.

REC is an interesting hub, the most important capital in Northeast Brazil, and has an excellent airport with state-of-the-art facilities, much superior to GRU.

Good news for the Europe-Brazil market. Btw, I have information that AF is investigating the possibility of operating CDG-SSA as their new market, after the consolidation of AF's two daily CDG-GRU (B772 and A330) and needless to say AF CDG-GIG (B747) is a huge money maker!

Rgs,
 
LipeGIG
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:38 am

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 2):
By the way.. How is TAM one weekly SSA-MIA doing?

Very well. Loads are about 75%-80% but fills more Y than C / F classes. As the flight keeps final destination Sao Paulo, it helps TAM in add traffic SSA-GRU and SSA-South.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
JJMNGR
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:01 am

Could someone confirm to me if the 03 A332 to GRU are regular? As far as I know thay are operating under non-regular frequencies for a short period of time.
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:29 am

JJMNGR,
Are you talking about Air France three weekly additional A332 service?
If so, they are effective only as of October 30/2005 up to March 24/2006.
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
LipeGIG
Topic Author
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:51 am

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 6):
JJMNGR,
Are you talking about Air France three weekly additional A332 service?
If so, they are effective only as of October 30/2005 up to March 24/2006.

Right. It's a seasonal service. We must take a look on AF's code-share decision. If they decide to stay with JJ (GRU), so we can see a second daily flight (depending on bilateral). If they start G3 code-share (GIG), we could see even a second flight at GIG.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 3):
REC is an interesting hub, the most important capital in Northeast Brazil, and has an excellent airport with state-of-the-art facilities, much superior to GRU

Despire REC is by far the best northeast airport, REC keep number 2 in the region, just after SSA. And also, SSA keep the biggest hotel room availability in the region. That's an issue REC must keep looking to improve their hotel network.

Best Regards,
Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:31 pm

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 6):
about Air France three weekly additional A332 service?
If so, they are effective only as of October 30/2005 up to March 24/2006



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 7):
Right. It's a seasonal service. We must take a look on AF's code-share decision. If they decide to stay with JJ (GRU), so we can see a second daily flight (depending on bilateral). If they start G3 code-share (GIG), we could see even a second flight at GIG.

AF already stated that the 3 additional A330 flights to GRU will be turned to regular after March/06 (performance so far has been strong and ahead booking are healthy). AF has the aim to increase GRU flights to two daily flights. As far as I know, there is almost no chance AF will relocate the additional GRU flights to another destinations (i.e. GIG), even taking account of the AF-G3 agreement in GIG.

Although AF is doing extremely well in GIG (flights ARE ALWAYS FULL), additional frequencies to GIG would undermine AF yields. It is a fact that although loads to GIG are high (INCLUDING BUSINESS), AF has a problem with a lot of non-paid tickets to GIG (staff relatives plus miles ticket are widely used on the GIG route which brings yields down).

In my opinion AF should make a slight change in its routes to Brazil. The additional frequencies to GRU should continue onwards to GIG operating CDG-GRU-GIG. This could be a good solution wihtout hurting too much GIG operatinons.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 7):
Despire REC is by far the best northeast airport, REC keep number 2 in the region, just after SSA.

Interesting, that's why an AF internal source told me that AF plans in Brazil in terms of a new market would be SSA (and not REC).
 
PPSMA
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:45 pm

Hey guys

Here´s some food for thought:

Yield versus load

It´s a norm that non-stop, scheduled international flights originating/ending in REC and SSA are offered with higher fares when compared to one or multi stop flights via GIG and GRU. Most surely that means over-the-average yield.

HOWEVER bear in mind that the potential travelling market ORIGINATING in the region is infinitely smaller than in the southern region and that can be translated in good INBOUND / poor OUTBOUND traffic volume !

If it were otherwise, AF would have NEVER pulled out of REC years ago. I remember flying once GRU-GIG-REC-CDG ( ouch!) and the REC-PAR leg looked a lot like a tour bus, with people who seemed to have come straight from the beach because they couldn´t afford an additional hotel room rate.

I can understand JJ giving it a go for 2 reasons: they have a strong domestic market to feed in these flights (but not enough to fill up dailies) and they can use the same plane on a domestic flight as part of an international flight (VERY clever indeed!), so while they add frequency to REC they also manage to maintain a high acft utilization rate.

I don´t mean to say that this is what it´s going to be - perhaps this will be considered and traded as an international flight overall, which I very much doubt will work for one simple reason: people originating/connecting in GRU will avoid a stopover flight at all costs simply because there are plenty of non-stop options to choose from!

Having said that, I am really curious to see if this new service will really last!

Hey Hardiwv, what do you say?

Abraços,

Domenico

P.S.: Lipe, your ticket is already issued and is lookin´good!  bouncy 
Aviation is my thing!
 
AwysBSB
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:53 pm

I believe that if the flights AF456/AF459 (CDG/GRU - GRU/CDG) started to make commercial stops at REC, Air France wouldn’t need increase anymore its capacity to/from GIG and could extend to REC its code-share agreements with TAM (as JJ will start to operate REC/CDG – CDG/REC).
A great number of the passengers that flies between CDG and GIG have their destination and/or origin in the Midwestern and Northeastern Brazil, and all those passengers would prefer to have their connections in REC in spite of GIG.

[Edited 2005-10-15 15:58:13]

[Edited 2005-10-15 15:59:55]
 
JJMNGR
Posts: 924
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:42 am

Brasuca,

Yes, I meant that...thanks a lot.

Some of you are saying that they might become regular. But what about bilateral agreement? Are there open frequencies? It was not easy for TAM to get 14 x week due no bilateral opened. Why should it be opened for OAF?
What a hell of bilateral is this?
Someone could help me on this?

Cheers.
 
commavia
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:55 am

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 2):
Very soon!!! US-Brazil Bilateral is already under revision and extra flights will be granted to US carriers.

Timeframe?!?!

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 2):
Other airports are to be announced and you can expect a flood of flights launched to secondary cities next year from TP, AA, DL, LH, G3 (BSB, MCZ, MAO, CNF)... It's extremely tiring making detours to GRU.

I really can't see too much growth in non-GRU/GIG flying for U.S. carriers beyond AA through MIA. MIA can generate huge O&D traffic and higher yields, but I really don't think any other airlines could take advantage of access to these markets. Maybe -- maybe -- DL might be able to fill up a flight through ATL a few times a week, but I personally think even that is a stretch.
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 2:29 am

Quoting JJMNGR (Reply 11):
Some of you are saying that they might become regular. But what about bilateral agreement? Are there open frequencies? It was not easy for TAM to get 14 x week due no bilateral opened. Why should it be opened for OAF?
What a hell of bilateral is this?
Someone could help me on this?

I don't have a clue about France-Brazil bilateral, but it looks like both countries will have the same number of daily frequencies:
> AF: 2 x CDG-GRU + 1 x CDG-GIG
> JJ: 2 x GRU-CDG + RG 1 x GIG-GRU-CDG

Quoting Commavia (Reply 12):
Timeframe?!?!

Beginning of Next year.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 12):
I really can't see too much growth in non-GRU/GIG flying for U.S. carriers beyond AA through MIA

I can't either, but DELTA can. They have stated that they intend to fly to Brazilian NE.
Especially after DELTA launched GIG. The only DL's flight to GIG carries more pax than their 2 flights to GRU summed up, so IMO they would transfer one of GRU's flights to anywhere else, but not before the extra flights concession will be granted, so that they can get those extras too.
I don't know what they would do with all those slots, but it's strategy! CO, UA, DL or AA will grab any slot free slot they can.

[Edited 2005-10-15 19:32:15]
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
LipeGIG
Topic Author
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:06 am

Quoting JJMNGR (Reply 11):
It was not easy for TAM to get 14 x week due no bilateral opened. Why should it be opened for OAF?



Quoting Brasuca (Reply 13):
I don't have a clue about France-Brazil bilateral, but it looks like both countries will have the same number of daily frequencies:
> AF: 2 x CDG-GRU + 1 x CDG-GIG
> JJ: 2 x GRU-CDG + RG 1 x GIG-GRU-CDG

As AF is using only 14 nowadays (growing to 17), they keep with space for improvements.

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 13):
I can't either, but DELTA can. They have stated that they intend to fly to Brazilian NE.
Especially after DELTA launched GIG. The only DL's flight to GIG carries more pax than their 2 flights to GRU summed up, so IMO they would transfer one of GRU's flights to anywhere else, but not before the extra flights concession will be granted, so that they can get those extras too.

Also, DL do not offer code-share in Brazil, they obtain good rates but it's not the same as RG and JJ. A 3x Weekly service REC, FOR "OR" SSA could be a good route. Remember that FOR-LIS is a daily flight, i don't think someone from FOR would like to go to SAO/RIO spending 3 hours in a flight, 3 to 4 hours waiting for the flight to MIA, and more 9 hours while they can go to Europe in a 6h flight.
Visa requirement is also a big problem, someone from FOR need to go to REC to ask for a visa (and they don't know if they can obtain it!).
Changes on this scenario could improve market for US visitors from northeast (i.e. direct flights). But i believe US-Northeast market will represent more than 70% of the demand.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 8):
Although AF is doing extremely well in GIG (flights ARE ALWAYS FULL), additional frequencies to GIG would undermine AF yields. It is a fact that although loads to GIG are high (INCLUDING BUSINESS), AF has a problem with a lot of non-paid tickets to GIG (staff relatives plus miles ticket are widely used on the GIG route which brings yields down).

Hardi, allow me to disagree. AF is highly impressed (well) with Rio route. They change the aircraft from A343 to 744 a year ago, giving to Rio a major 60% increase in seats. After no more than 30 days, the demand goes to top and keep the flight with the high loads you already know.
A couple of months ago, AF has changed the settings on 744 and give to Rio more 21% offer, and again, in less than 30 days, the market "took" the additional offer, and even in low season the flight keep with more than 420 pax per day, with the C class full all the days.
There are plans on AF for an increase in GIG (it could be even the A380 in the future) as Rio at the same time keep as final destination of at least 33% of pax from AMS-GRU flight (boarding thru RG and JJ). Also, AF is all times granting special fares from GRU to CDG, never to/from GIG. It's hard to obtain a Y ticket for less than US$ 900 while you can get a GRU-CDG for US$ 780 nowadays (and remember that today AF keep code-share for GRU flight, not for GIG flight!).
Agree that GIG keep more Frequence Plus Tickets (but i believe its relative to the large 744 capacity, and we can't compare Rio to Sao Paulo as a touristic destination, i believe 8 to 10 pax would spend holidays in Rio).
I can't see with the code share with Gol (and imagine how many people could be added to the route) how AF could take care of extra demand without increasing the offer.
GRU could even receive the second flight, but i believe it will corrupt yields and loads for the 772 flight. There are excessive demand on GRU at this time to CDG. I believe Friday night is one of the top days in the week (could be the top one) for Biz traffic, and TAM has just included a stop in one GRU-CDG flight, the same day AF will run a new A332 flight (the only one with 3 classes, as the other 2 will be C+Y only). No make sense.

In fact we have to wait to take a good picture on Brazil-France route, but this year (dec-mar) will be +21% in GIG and +45% in GRU in increase. GRU-CDG increase is probably the higher in Brazil market.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:34 am

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 13):
The only DL's flight to GIG carries more pax than their 2 flights to GRU summed up



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 14):
with the C class full all the days.



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 14):
There are plans on AF for an increase in GIG

Felipe, I got your point and I am aware GIG is performing well, but absolutely NO airline would compromise their operations in GRU for the GIG market, and this goes for AF as well. Although AF's flight to GIG is a huge success, AF needs the GRU market which is the most important Brazilian market and where they can sell First Class. If you look at the configuration of AF's B772 to GRU you will note that half the a/c is biz/first!

Also, AF additional flights to GRU are, as expected, performing well and in no way are undermining yields. On the cotrary, AF recently stated that it plans to further increase GRU to two daily in 2006.

As for GIG, I dont think AF will increase flights to GIG in the near future. They would rather open a new market such as SSA.

The fact that AF selected GRU intead of GIG for the additional flights speaks for itslelf: everybody is fighting for a share of Sao Paulo's profitable business traffic!

Rgs,
 
LipeGIG
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:36 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 15):
The fact that AF selected GRU intead of GIG for the additional flights speaks for itslelf: everybody is fighting for a share of Sao Paulo's profitable business traffic!

I respect your opinion. Remember that GRU is nowadays Brazilian Hub. If you take a look on top 10 freench companies in Brazil you will see: 4 from Sao Paulo (Carrefour, Coinbra, Rhodia and Alstom), 3 from Rio (Light/EDF, Peugeot-Citroen and Saint Gobain), 1 from Minas (V&M), 1 from Parana (Renault) and 1 from Santa Catarina (Frangosul).
Now Minas, Santa Catarina and Parana (among all others) connects thru GRU. GRU is an important (the top) market for Biz due to the market concentration. Sao Paulo is the stronger market but not more than 40% of GRU pax are from SAO. Lets see in one year.

Rgds,
Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:13 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 16):
Sao Paulo is the stronger market but not more than 40% of GRU pax are from SAO

Yes, but this 40% pax-base is extremely high-yieling that you cannot compare to any other place in Brazil.

Still, I would doubt about your figure of 40%. In the case of KLM, for example, Sao Paulo based pax make about 70-80% of the flight sometimes higher. I'm sure this is the case of other airlines such as LX. Sao Paulo is the most important market and no airline will ever compromise its presence there; as we could see indications are that the SAO hub will grow more and more every year with GIG coming as a first secondary option (see DL or AF which decided first to increase GRU to two daily and only after venture on GIG flights); and SSA and/or REC as tertiary option.

Rgs,
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:51 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 17):
we could see indications are that the SAO hub will grow more and more every year

SAO will certainly grow as a Hub, but just because air traffic demand is increasing. However the growth rate in SAO will certainly decrease.

Airlines still fear venturing other markets, even though they are profitable. But they are gradually introducing flights to others than SAO. We've never seen so much interest in secondary cities (not only GIG).
We agree that SAO is the most important market in Brazil, but flights are excessively concentrated in GRU/CGH that relies more than half of traffic on connections. Just compare GRU demand (40%) with its traffic congestion - it's inconceivable!
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
LipeGIG
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 7:01 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 17):
Yes, but this 40% pax-base is extremely high-yieling that you cannot compare to any other place in Brazil.

Still, I would doubt about your figure of 40%. In the case of KLM, for example, Sao Paulo based pax make about 70-80% of the flight sometimes higher. I'm sure this is the case of other airlines such as LX. Sao Paulo is the most important market and no airline will ever compromise its presence there

I can't doubt that Sao Paulo is the most important market for Business, but Hardi, please understand my point of view, it's not the only one. That's why flights "off-GRU" are so well.

We can discuss during drinking lots of beers and we probably still discussing.

Two years ago SAO was more than 90% of all int'l flights, nowadays is close to 80% and IMO there is space for more diversification. Let's see in one or two years. Nothing is immediate.

Rgds,
Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
LipeGIG
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:54 pm

Also, TAM probably will run a weekly frequency REC-JFK. It was a promisse Mr. Bologna (TAM's president) made to US-Brazil Chamber of Commerce in Recife.

It will take place only (IMO) when the flight become daily.

TAM is paying higher commission to agents (11% while RG keep paying 6%) for its new JFK route. Gifts like digital cameras are granted to agents for Premium Tickets sold.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
IB787
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:58 pm

Any chances seeing TAM openning new destinations in Europe, what about LHR, AMS, FRA, LIS or MAD?
 
LipeGIG
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:08 am

Quoting IB787 (Reply 21):
Any chances seeing TAM openning new destinations in Europe, what about LHR, AMS, FRA, LIS or MAD?

I can't see TAM runing LIS. But London and Frankfurt are in their wish list. Tam has tried Frankfurt in 99 but results were very bad and they decided to
stop. Nowadays with a stronger domestic network (they are ranked first), they could re-introduce FRA (an important biz destination). TAM will receive back 3 A332 next year. One will be used to improve JFK to daily, but for the other two nowadays we keep with only rumors.

FRA is a Star hub, and keeps 4 daily flights to Brazil. AMS and London are the worst served with only 2 daily flights. MAD keep almost 28 weekly flights (14 with IB, 7 RG, 4 PU and more charters and weekly service to SSA/REC/NAT). LIS is very well served by TP with 40 weekly flights.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:20 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 22):
AMS and London are the worst served with only 2 daily flights

I agree with Felipe. I see as potential TAM destinations in Europe: LON, ZRH, AMS. But of course it all depends on agreements with other airlines. But I have the feeling LON will be next through a codeshare with VS; AMS is also possible since KL and TAM have a good partnership.

Rgs,
 
LipeGIG
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:40 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 23):
But I have the feeling LON will be next through a codeshare with VS; AMS is also possible since KL and TAM have a good partnership.

A new flight to LON could hit more RG as i saw very low loads on BA (but i expect to see on BA very high yield Biz and First loads). I see TAM facing some difficults on JFK route (because for JFK they are facing high level equipments, something that MIA and CDG do not present at time JJ start the routes). Tam could take a good Biz traffic (they are the only one with lie-seats), but Economy will be not so full during the first months.
LON and AMS could be another good option as RG use M11's without IFE for Economy and bad Biz seats. Both will "hurt" partners (BA, strong partner of AA and KLM/AF), so Tam probably will be very carefully. We can even see Tam flying to MAD just to avoid "problems" with partners.
Hardi, the only market i wouldn't bet on JJ new flight is Germany. All the other are possible, as well as California, where they keep a store (despite the closer plane arives only in MIA). Even New York only get a store on October (i tried to change my ticket in NYC).
Tam will be in condition to start a new route in the mid-2006 when they receive back 2 A332 from Etihad. Both are non-AVOD equipment.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 3:50 am

TAM new destinations?

To London -> Whereas VARIG is doing good, British is not. So TAM entrance would post losses for all of them: RG, BA and JJ.
To Milan -> It's rather a better option. Flights are full for both RG/AZ. There is room for expansion.
LIS, FRA -> Star All. field. No chance.
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:00 am

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 25):
Whereas VARIG is doing good, British is not

This is not correct. BA is doing extremely well in Brazil. This year BA reported that GRU was one of their top performing destinations in Biz/First, as a result, BA replaced the B772 with the B747 expanding seat capacity on Biz and First.

Rgs,
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:32 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 26):
This is not correct. BA is doing extremely well in Brazil. This year BA reported that GRU was one of their top performing destinations in Biz/First, as a result, BA replaced the B772 with the B747 expanding seat capacity on Biz and First

I meant in exactly in Y, which is not performing high loads. Ok, I know C and F counts more.
These days, I am checking prices from Brazil to Europe, then to DXB (return) in Y and British has always the lowest fares. I then started chekcing to other destinations and BA always comes up with the lowest fares. Incredibly ones.

Some British flights have arrived in GRU with only 88 pax lately. It's low season, we know, but other airlines are posting extraordinarily high loads in this low peak season, why not BA? They are not doing very well.
So, this is correct, despite F and C may have some yields.
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
AwysBSB
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:34 am

I hope REC really becomes a world-class hub!
It seems the Livingston`s weekly charter between MXP and REC became scheduled, but according to amadeus.net, that service is being operated under the ALM Antillean Airlines code “LM175”.
Does anyone have more information about that service?
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:45 am

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 27):
I meant in exactly in Y, which is not performing high loads.

I have factual information that BA is doing very well on its flights to GRU in biz and first. Why do you think they replaced the B772 with the B747?

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 27):
Some British flights have arrived in GRU with only 88 pax lately

BA flight to GRU continues onwards to EZE or GIG, and you have to include these pax as well. You can at least double the number because GIG and EZE are strong stations for Y pax.

In addition, BA is known almost everywhere for cheap Y ticket and expensive C/J ticket. This because BA has developed two separate economy cabins: economy (cheapest) and premier economy (seats recline more and onboard service is enhanced). BA operates in the Brazilian market with four cabins:

- First
- Business
- Premier Economy
- Economy

You can check out:

http://www.britishairways.com/travel.../en_br?prim=aboutjourn&sec=onboard

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 27):
I am checking prices from Brazil to Europe, then to DXB (return) in Y and British has always the lowest fares

It also depends on which travel websearch engine you use...

Rgs,

[Edited 2005-10-16 21:47:52]
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:39 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 29):
I have factual information that BA is doing very well on its flights to GRU in biz and first. Why do you think they replaced the B772 with the B747?

I wonder it too. They've cancelled a substantial number of routes, who knows it's because of idle aircraft. Maybe some yield, but definitely not good loads.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 29):
BA flight to GRU continues onwards to EZE or GIG, and you have to include these pax as well. You can at least double the number because GIG and EZE are strong stations for Y pax.

The situation is even worse. 88 pax were inside the 744 total, not to GRU alone. LipeGIG provided me this info:
BAW0247 LON 0510 B744 GBNLK 088

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 29):
It also depends on which travel websearch engine you use...

www.britishairways.com

GRU-LHR-DXB-LHR-CDG-LHR-GRU, for example, is cheaper than GRU-FRA-GRU

[Edited 2005-10-16 23:41:18]
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:37 pm

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 30):
I wonder it too. They've cancelled a substantial number of routes, who knows it's because of idle aircraft.

Certainly this is NOT the case. You cannot state that an airline has poor loads because you only look at ONE flight.

On the contrary, BA has NO iddle aircraft. They have a LACK of aircraft, and the fact that BA placed their top product to GRU means they are doing very well there. In fact, 2004 was the best year of BA in Brazil in its 20 years of operations in the country.

http://www.panrotas.com.br/canais/re...1&cod_aut=36&nome_model=ultima.asp

And in fact, GRU is one of the top 20 most profitable routes of BA wordwide:

http://www.panrotas.com.br/canais/re...1&cod_aut=51&nome_model=ultima.asp

Rgs,
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:50 pm

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 31):
You cannot state that an airline has poor loads because you only look at ONE flight.

I know. It was not only ONE flight, but several.

I'd rather believe in figures than in the company's advertisement.

Maybe I should have made clearer that BA is not doing good in comparison to RG, that's why I reasoned if there is room for TAM to LON, then this gap should be filled firstly by British Airways flights, which have been far from full. VARIG is performing way better than BA in LHR-GRU (Ops! It's an MD11.. Amazing!).
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:21 pm

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 32):
VARIG is performing way better than BA in LHR-GRU (Ops! It's an MD11.. Amazing!).

Nadson, I got your point but I simply cant believe in the fact that RG is doing better to LHR than BA. Maybe RG is performing better in Y, but this does not mean much. BA is known worlwide for focusing on biz/first.

I also dont know your sources to estimate BA loads to GRU. And the fact that GRU is one of BA's top 20 routes worldwide does mean something. September-October is low season, so to estimate loads you have to make a year-around comparison. I just dont think that a highly professional airline such as BA (with lack of aircraft) would be "wasting" a precious B747 in an underperforming route, whereas they could easily use this B747 to important Asian destinations.

Rgs,

[Edited 2005-10-17 10:42:22]
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:55 pm

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 33):
I simply cant believe in the fact that RG is doing better to LHR than BA

Maybe your Signature in A.net explains why you can't believe it (T.M.R.C.) hehe  laughing 

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 33):
September-October is low season, so to estimate loads you have to make a year-around comparison.

As I have said, AF, KL, AZ, IB, LH and RG are doing extremely well in this low season. Why not BA?

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 33):
airline such as BA (with lack of aircraft)

If they are really in lack of it, interesting there is so long they've ordered an aircraft, even knowing Boeing's slots are full for a long time.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 33):
Nadson, you got your point

I see TAM's best potential at MXP, for those reasons of flights not always full to LHR, plus LON is still an expensive place for brazilians, while Brazil-Italy ties are much closer and MXP-GRU always full. More than 350.000 Brazilians hold Italian citzenship. That´s my point of view.  Smile

[I'm sending you a private message!]
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:05 pm

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 34):
I have said, AF, KL, AZ, IB, LH and RG are doing extremely well in this low season. Why not BA?

And I repeat: BA is doing extremely well in GRU and 2004 was BA's most profitable year in GRU in its 20 years of operations there.

It is a salient fact that BA replaced the B772 with the B747 in GRU. GRU is a money maker for BA and they do have healthy loads there. This is the info I have. Otherwise they could simply close the GRU station the same way they did with BOG.

Rgs,
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:34 pm

Hardiwv,
Then we agree to disagree.  wave 

[Just sent you pvt msg]
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:11 pm

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 36):
Then we agree to disagree.

ok!  Wink (did you sent it to orkut?)

Rgs,
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:58 pm

Brasuca (Nadson):

I got BA loads information for the flight today and tomorrow to GRU and they look as follows:

LHR London Heathrow UK [EGLL]
GRU Sao Paulo Guarulhos Int'l SP BR [SBGR]
MON 17 Oct 2005

Carrier Flight From Depart To Arrive A/C St Availability

BA 247 LHR 21:50 GRU 06:10 +1 744 0

F0 A0 J0 C0 D0 I0 Y1 B0 H0 K0 M0 R0 V0 N0

LHR London Heathrow UK
GRU Sao Paulo Guarulhos Int'l SP BR
TUE 18 Oct 2005

Carrier Flight From Depart To Arrive A/C St Availability
BA 247 LHR 21:50 GRU 06:10 +1 744 0

F0 A0 J0 C0 D0 I0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 R0 V0 N0

This shows that BA loads to GRU are close to 100%, this is an AMAZING PERFORMANCE and indeed confirmed that GRU is one of BA's best performing markets worlwide.

This also indicates that, as suspected, most certainly the next European market TAM will go to is LON, in addition the info confirms VS intentions to start flights LON-GIG nonstop. Most certainly LON is much more attractive than MXP, which although has business demand is mostly ethnic traffic with very poor yields. LON, AMS and ZRH are without doubt market which TAM is looking with priority eyes.

Rgs,
 
Neo
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:54 pm

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 34):
As I have said, AF, KL, AZ, IB, LH and RG are doing extremely well in this low season. Why not BA?

I don't think LH is doing so well in loads either. According to LipeGiG numbers they show quite weak numbers (in general) as well.

DLH 0502 FRA 0430 B744 DABVL PAXS: 123
DLH 0526 FRA 0600 A346 DAIHB PAXS: 223 (max 345)

Now we have to take in account that this is all based on operatinos from one single day (Thurday, Oct13) and can be misleading as it does not necessarily applies for the other days of October.

IMO, I also doubt BA would maintain GRU if it wasn't a highly profitable route, although I must confess I expected BA to show stronger numbers on loads overall, cause they can be filling those F and C seats, but they still have got +350... empty seats in Y, which is a lot.

As for RG, their loads are indeed strong but I wonder if they are filling those F and C seats as they have an inferior product, specially when it comes to these 2 classes. In any case, it's good to see RG with strong loads to most of their Eurpean destinations.

Rgs,

Neo
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:03 pm

Quoting Neo (Reply 39):
IMO, I also doubt BA would maintain GRU if it wasn't a highly profitable route, although I must confess I expected BA to show stronger numbers on loads overall, cause they can be filling those F and C seats, but they still have got +350... empty seats in Y, which is a lot.

See official BA number in the previous reply. BA is doing extremely well in GRU.

Rgs,
 
LipeGIG
Topic Author
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:47 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 40):
See official BA number in the previous reply. BA is doing extremely well in GRU.

Hardi , today they arrive GRU with 154 pax , 54 of them to GIG.
I don't know how many F and C seats they have and how much were sold. BA is a top Biz airline like you said, but anyone could provide us with the seats available on their 744 service ?

This number is given from inside info on Infraero. Could be a high density F/C plane!

Regards
Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:34 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 41):
This number is given from inside info on Infraero. Could be a high density F/C plane!

Felipe, the information from Infraero therefore is WRONG - Infraero does not even keep this type of information, whcih the airlines ONLY disclose (officialy) to DAC.

This is the last post a received today from a friend inside BA (management level), his name I will not disclose for obvious reasons:

246/247 (LHR-GRU/GRU-LHR) is one of BA's most profitable routes- period. It supports the ultimate combination of high fares in all classes (average fares are pretty much the most expensive of all the p2p UK ones systemwide- Y fare alone never drop below £600.. never in any if the sales, doesn't need to be!) plus high loads. It rarely goes out less than full- and thats true J/F loads as well, not cabin rolls from Y. Oh and excellent cargo to!

Felipe, it is obvious that BA is doing extremely well in GRU: 2004 was their more profitable year in GRU over 20 year, and GRU was for the first time ranked as one of BA's top 20 destinations in terms of overal profitability. And if you look at an airline of the scale of BA this is a major achievement.

My friend also told me that 2005 will be even better for BA in GRU and GRU could move up to the top 10 list.

Rgs,
 
Neo
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Tue Oct 18, 2005 3:44 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 40):
See official BA number in the previous reply. BA is doing extremely well in GRU.



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 38):


BA 247 LHR 21:50 GRU 06:10 +1 744 0
F0 A0 J0 C0 D0 I0 Y1 B0 H0 K0 M0 R0 V0 N0

BA 247 LHR 21:50 GRU 06:10 +1 744 0
F0 A0 J0 C0 D0 I0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 R0 V0 N0

Hey Hardi, can you explain me what do all these letters (classes) and numbers mean (seats available)? I only recognize F, J, C and Y classes, what are all the other letters stand for?

Thanks.. From what I understood this new numbers you supplied put things into a total different prospective...and somewhat contradict the numbers that Felipe posted earlier... I know your data comes from BA , but what about Felipe's? Infraero?

Rgs,

Neo
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:25 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 38):
I got BA loads information for the flight today and tomorrow to GRU and they look as follows:

No, you didn't get the loads, but only seats availability in those classes.

Quoting Neo (Reply 39):
it's good to see RG with strong loads to most of their Eurpean destinations.

I can show you even more examples. TAM flies two widebodies to CDG, while VARIG only one. Some days, VARIG carries up to 86-90% of TAM pax.
Last week, two TAM flights arrived with 331 pax from CDG, while VARIG flight with 285. Try in both websites, RG and JJ, looking for fares. VARIG ones are extremely high to Paris. But not TAM's.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 40):
See official BA number in the previous reply.

Again, not official numbers from BA, but class availability that anyone with access to internet can have (including me)

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 42):
It supports the ultimate combination of high fares in all classes

There I can see your source is not that reliable. Firstly, I was exactly talking about BA's (very) low fares. Secondly you said: "British is known for Y low fares". Thirdly, you can compare yourself BA fares with ANY other airline from Europe to Brazil and check it.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 42):
it is obvious that BA is doing extremely well in GRU

I don't doubt BA is doing well, but VARIG is doing better and demand is still lower than capacity. That's why LON is not the biggest potential for TAM.
You mentioned before that Swiss kept their frequency to Brazil only because of they could get onwards traffic to NRT. So how do you say now there is enough demand to ZRH?
The Netherlands and Brazil have veryyy close ties, but AMS itself would not support one TAM direct service. KLM highly relies on AMS as a Hub, not exactly a destination. You've mentioned too that KL is a major player between Brazil and Asia.
All in all, only MXP and maybe MAD can be considered as potential TAM routes. If you classify MXP as low yield, please put MIA into this category as well. And TAM flies two daily to MIA.

Quoting Neo (Reply 43):
Hey Hardi, can you explain me what do all these letters (classes) and numbers mean (seats available)? I only recognize F, J, C and Y classes, what are all the other letters stand for?

Each letter depicts the classes available in each flight and the number in the right indicates how many seats are available, however 9, 7 and 4 means that the number is higher. Each class has different prices and restrictions.

[Edited 2005-10-17 23:39:39]
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:27 am

Hardiwv, more numbers for you.


VARIG ... LHR-GRU

F0 A0 C0 D0 J0 Z0 Y0 B0 M0 H0 Q0 L0 V0 W0 G0 S0 (Oct 17)
F0 A0 C0 D0 J0 Z0 Y0 B0 M0 H0 Q0 L0 V0 W0 G0 S0 (Oct 18)
F0 A0 C0 D0 J0 Z0 Y0 B0 M0 H0 Q0 L0 V0 W0 G0 S0 (Oct 19)
F2 A4 C0 D0 J0 Z0 Y0 B0 M0 H0 Q0 L0 V0 W0 G0 S0 (Oct 20)
F2 A4 C0 D0 J0 Z0 Y0 B0 M0 H0 Q0 L0 V0 W0 G0 S0 (Oct 21)



BRITISH AIRWAYS ... GRU-LHR

F5 A4 J9 C9 D9 I9 Y9 B9 H9 K8 M8 R6 V3 N3 0 0 (Oct 18)
F0 A0 J9 C9 D9 I9 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 R9 V9 N9 0 0 (Oct 19)
F0 A0 J1 C1 D0 I0 Y5 B7 H6 K6 M5 R5 V3 N1 0 0 (Oct 20)
F0 A0 J0 C0 D0 I0 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 R9 V9 N9 0 0 (Oct 21)
F3 A2 J2 C1 D0 I0 Y8 B9 H7 K4 M0 R0 V0 N0 0 0 (Oct 22)
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:37 am

I don't doubt British Airways is doing good in GRU, but in one Thread currently discussing why British Airways pulled out of Pittsburgh there is such a comment by PITrules, reply 11:

Quote:

When BA announced the closure of the route, BA said they would have continued with it if they could get only 1 or 2 people more people per day on average in first class. CAL's CLE service may have taken those 1 or 2 First class passengers from BA.

And by the numbers I provided you, BA's first class is doing well. But Y is empty. And it looks like BA doesn't care about low loads.

Here's the thread link. Why Did BA Stop Serving Pittsburgh? (by Wrighbrothers Oct 12 2005 in Civil Aviation)

And there our information match now. You say GRU performs incredibily with F for BA. That's true, but Y is really opened. They cut BOG for low F and C loads. So, demand is still lower than availability to LHR. What would TAM do in LHR? Only post losses for all they three.

One more info: BA gets higher loads when the flight final destination is GIG, rather than EZE.

And INFRAERO does have access to these numbers, as they count day by day pax for taxes and that's the way INFRAERO counts yearly pax transported.
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
hardiwv
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:44 am

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 44):
Again, not official numbers from BA, but class availability that anyone with access to internet can have (including me)

No, they represent LOADS and not AVAILABILTITY! Sorry to say but your numbers are WRONG.

But I will not keep arguing. I also have information and BA makes much, much more money than RG on the LHR-GRU route, especially because BA captures all the high paying business/first pax while RG has to sell those seats with discount...

About the Y fares, I said that BA in general sells cheaper Y fares. IN GENERAL. But this does NOT apply to Brazil, because basically all their daily flights leave full or close to full. BA operations in Brazil are just AMAZING...probably one of the airlines which makes MORE money in GRU, you can bet!

Quoting Brasuca (Reply 45):
more numbers for you.

Again, your numbers are not correct...sorry, but I will stop arguing.

I disagree in almost evrything you wrote above...I will setlle now, but the discussion is proving fruitless.

One thing for sure: BA is not stupid to send their B747 daily to GRU  Wink

Rgs,
 
Brasuca
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:11 am

Hardiwv,

Ok. As I have already said, we agree to disagree.

But there's just no reason why your numbers are correct and mine are not. Maybe for lack of plausible justification, because I showed lots of numbers and facts, and you specially advertisement: "We're doing goood". And you just seem to bash RG in everything they do and TAM is just wonderful for you.

Anyways... Just different thoughts. Je t'aime!  couple 

So, let's come back now to original thread's focus. I hope TAM does very well what others have been doing in Brazilian NE.
Varig, Varig, Varig
 
LipeGIG
Topic Author
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RE: TAM To Start REC-CDG Non Stop

Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:16 am

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 42):
Felipe, it is obvious that BA is doing extremely well in GRU: 2004 was their more profitable year in GRU over 20 year, and GRU was for the first time ranked as one of BA's top 20 destinations in terms of overal profitability. And if you look at an airline of the scale of BA this is a major achievement.

My friend also told me that 2005 will be even better for BA in GRU and GRU could move up to the top 10 list

Hardi, i agree that BA LHR-GRU-GIG/EZE is very profitable. Cargo + Biz traffic and also its a low season month !

But i agree that nowadays RG is doing very well on loads (they are using a M11 with more Y seats) whereas BA is ahead on profits and yields.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !