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lightsaber
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Airline Financial Reporting Season Start 19th

Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:53 am

Folks, I couldn't help but notice that the airline reporting season for this quarter starts on the 19th of October with CO. Then on the 20th we'll hear from UPS, B6, WN, and AS. DH and FL are set to report on the 27th, DL on Nov. 9th with US, and Fedex way out in December. (Why?) I did not see on yahoo the reporting dates for NW, AA, or F9.

With everything that has happened in the 3rd quarter, I have a feeling this will be one of the more interesting sets of earnings announcements. Some of the airlines will report interesting facts, others will do spins that would make the old Iraqi propaganda minister proud.  spin 

Now for my predictions:

Profit: UPS, Fedex, CO, AA, WN, and maybe B6

Encouraging, but in the red (small loses explained by the 3Q fuel issue):
UA, FL, AS, F9, with US having a larger loss but still manageable.

Large losses: DL, NW, DH (These join in the destroy the investor capital circus.)

If anyone has a link to the investor presentations, please link.

Lightsaber
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727LOVER
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RE: Airline Financial Reporting Season Start 19th

Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:01 am

Will US report as a whole or will they split US/HP results? Sorry, but I don't see AA or CO being profitable in the 3rd quarter. Can you explain why you think AA/CO will, but FL/B6 won't?
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SHUPirate1
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RE: Airline Financial Reporting Season Start 19th

Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:05 am

Keep in mind that I would not take any number US Airways Group (LCC.NYSE) spews to the public without looking deeper into the numbers. Their (and every company's) first quarter out of bankruptcy includes so many special items that it is almost impossible to get a good read on the numbers by simply looking at the press release.
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aa777flyer
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RE: Airline Financial Reporting Season Start 19th

Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:14 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Thread starter):
Profit: UPS, Fedex, CO, AA, WN, and maybe B6

Ahhhh..AA will post a loss. Forcast approx $100M. AA will report tomorrow AM.
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lightsaber
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RE: Airline Financial Reporting Season Start 19th

Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:20 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 1):
Will US report as a whole or will they split US/HP results? Sorry, but I don't see AA or CO being profitable in the 3rd quarter. Can you explain why you think AA/CO will, but FL/B6 won't?

CO hinted with their September load factors that they should be profitable. While that is no guarantee, it does bode well.

AA has been reorganizing like a maniac. That is why I think they'll squeeze a profit.

ATL was hit with a fuel shortage by Katrina and DL reported they were paying for fuel at the equivalent of $100/bbl. Unless FL has *a lot* more hedges than I'm aware of, the fuel spike will pull them into the red. It was brutal for ATL to lose their gulf coast pipeline connections.

B6... I just don't know. Since they only squeaked a profit last quarter, they're going to be iffy with the fuel spikes this quarter. Last I looked, B6 is only ~1/4th hedged. That isn't enough to insulate them from the painful fuel market of 2005. Since I own stock in B6, I hope to be proven wrong!  Smile

As to HP/US, I actually don't know if they'll report separate or not... However, I'm talking about the combined entity reporting an operating loss.

Lightsaber

Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 2):
Their (and every company's) first quarter out of bankruptcy includes so many special items that it is almost impossible to get a good read on the numbers by simply looking at the press release.

True. Very good point and well said.

Lightsaber
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COEWR
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RE: Airline Financial Reporting Season Start 19th

Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:31 am

http://www.continental.com/company/cohome.asp

That is the link for CO's internet stream of their press conference. It is going to happen Wed the 19th at 9:30 central time if anyone is interested.

-C
 
crogalski
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RE: Airline Financial Reporting Season Start 19th

Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:38 am

Oct 20th, http://investor.jetblue.com/ireye/ir...site.zhtml?ticker=jblu&script=2100 will be the jetblue press conf. at 10am...

i'm 99% sure you'll see a loss this qt.
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lightsaber
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RE: Airline Financial Reporting Season Start 19th

Tue Oct 18, 2005 8:06 am

Quoting Aa777flyer (Reply 3):

Ahhhh..AA will post a loss. Forcast approx $100M. AA will report tomorrow AM.

Ok I...  footinmouth  It looks to be a small loss for AA this quarter.  Sad

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051017/earns_preview_amr.html?.v=1

Lightsaber
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RE: Airline Financial Reporting Season Start 19th

Tue Oct 18, 2005 8:27 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Thread starter):
Encouraging, but in the red (small loses explained by the 3Q fuel issue):
UA, FL, AS, F9

Actually, everything I'm hearing is that AS will post some very promising numbers.
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Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group

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