Lemurs
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Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:51 pm

Outside of the Lion Air order (30 firm, 30 options) there haven't been any announcements for this aircraft since the original release mid-July. I kind of figured it'd get more serious attention from some of the legacy cariers who already operate 737NG fleets.

CO and AA in particular, since it gives them an aircraft that approaches (if not exactly matches) capacity parity with the 752, and true intercon range. I'd figure either one would love to have a plane they could plug into their fleet that would allow them to focus their 752's for longer international legs where they can really earn some money.

CO is the real stumper here too, since they already operate the 739, and are pushing the revenue potential envelope of the 752 every month. The 739ER seems like a great fit for them. The -900 is a bit of a black sheep at the moment since they only have 12 in the fleet, and it can't do intercon where that extra capacity over the 738 would be valuable.
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CRJ900
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:58 pm

I think orders will come in when the 739ER is rolled out next year and airlines have the opportunity of seeing the aircraft in person. I believe that AA and CO are being briefed and enticed regularly by Boeing...  Smile
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garpd
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:03 pm

The 739ER strikes me as another 753 or 764. A product with limited development costs designed and built for a customer at request. So, it may not have the widest appeal to all airlines.

Having said that, if all the figures add up correctly, it looks to be a good A321 competitor and bottom end of usage 757 replacement. By that, I mean airlines that don't use their 757s to the fullest extent of range or payload.
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:14 pm

I'm convinced Continental is very intersted in it, they already have the basic 900 variant and every time a new Boeing twin, new model or new variant of an existing model, they seriously consider buying it. The 900ER would suit Continental's transcon flights out of EWR to the West Coast and some destinations in Latin America. The 757-200's would be rescheduled to fly on routes transatlantic and transpacific to Hawaii where ETOPS certification is required. The 757 is ETOPS certified, the NG737 variants are not.

American may consider that one as well, to complement their 737-800 fleet and replace their oldest 757's dating from the late 80's, also to be flown on thin transcon routes (for example JFK-SAN, JFK-SJC and JFK-SEA), but they are not ready to invest in new airplanes.

Alaska would also be interersted in it, if they need a long range aircraft to fly from Anchorage nonstop to destinations in the mainland United States where a non ER 900 wouldn't be able to fly nonstop with full payload. Alaska also operates the basic 900 variant.

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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:24 pm

Sorry, Soriano, but that's not correct.
The NG 737 IS, in fact, ETOPS capable. Several of Continental's 738s are ETOPS, I believe.
But I agree- several more airlines should be interested in this aircraft.
 
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:26 pm

Don't forget that Boeing stated that most orders placed in the year prior to the launch of the 739ER allow the buyer the right to convert to the 739ER, if they so choose, among those mentioned were JAL and S.A.L.E. A recent report also stated that Spicejet were looking to aquire 5 739ER and this is in addition to the 10 738 options that they intend to firm.

Given the rate at which the 737 has sold this year it shouldn't be too long before we see some conversions take place.

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dutchjet
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:20 pm

The 739ER will see additional orders from several carriers, give it some time. Also, there are many 737 commitments out there whereby the customer has the option to select among the various 737NG variants.....some will go for the 739ER. A good number of 739ER orders will come from airlines in Asia and European charter carriers in the future due to its versatility.

I dont expect AA or CO to become 739ER customers, however, atleast in the near term future.....both airlines are using the 757 fleets in new and innovative ways and are happy to cut capacity in US domestic markets. In most cases, 738s have taken over routes once flown by the 757s......neither CO or AA really want or need the extra seats offered by the 739ER....the 738s are more than adequate for most services. Yes, CO does have a number of 739s that mainly fly shorter-haul high-demand routes, but which CO routes require a 739ER?
 
HUYfan
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:34 pm

Have to say, I agree with GARPD, I don't think the 739ER is anything more than a 764 or 753 and will sell accordingly.

Regards

Mike
 
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:52 pm

I believe SpiceJet is in talks for about 5 of them and I won't be surprised if Jet Airways decides to pick them up along the way.
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garpd
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:17 pm

Quoting HUYfan (Reply 7):
Have to say, I agree with GARPD, I don't think the 739ER is anything more than a 764 or 753 and will sell accordingly.

Regards

Mike

In what way do you agree?

That it is a custom job for a select few airlines?
Or that it won't sell in vast numbers?

In either scenario, I'm confident it'll make back its money quickly.


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bomber996
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:00 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 6):
Yes, CO does have a number of 739s that mainly fly shorter-haul high-demand routes, but which CO routes require a 739ER?

Maybe some of the high density, low yield markets from the northeast to Southern Florida where 757s are currently used beside the 737's. This could free up some 757's to help ease the schedule on the Atlantic.

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dutchjet
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:15 pm

Quoting Bomber996 (Reply 10):

Maybe some of the high density, low yield markets from the northeast to Southern Florida where 757s are currently used beside the 737's. This could free up some 757's to help ease the schedule on the Atlantic.

Peace

True - but the EWR-Florida routes are just fine with the 739, the ER variant is not necessary. Also note that many 752s flying EWR-Florida routes are the same aircraft that fly to Europe (lots of winglet 752s show up on the EWR-FLL segment for example, and most of the 752s on the EWR-FLorida routes are international standard with 16 seat BF interiors) and are being rotated through the CO flight system.

With the additional 753s coming on-line to cover high demand routes, my guess is CO will stay focused on the 738 for any further 737NG orders - it seems to be the right compromise (atleast for CO) of capacity and range.
 
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:17 pm

Quoting Lemurs (Thread starter):
it gives them an aircraft that approaches (if not exactly matches) capacity parity with the 752,

The thing is that the B757 is not available any more because airlines had no interest on it. I think future orders will come for sure, but it won't be a best seller as the B738, for example.

The B737-900ER can be compared to the A321, that is not the best seller neither of the A320 family.

Agur,
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ikramerica
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:29 pm

Quoting Lemurs (Thread starter):
CO is the real stumper here too, since they already operate the 739,

I think the 18/149 config on the 739 is a bit lopsided. The 739ER at 16/158 would be more suitable, but the 739 could have been outfit as 16/155 and they didn't do it, so I'm not sure what CO would do. But the 752 at 24(16)/159 is relatively close, and the 739ER would be a good way of freeing up 752s for Europe/South America.
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hoya
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:37 pm

Whenever someone orders a 739 from now on, it will be a 739ER. Boeing has stated that the 739ER will replace the regular 739 in its offerings and on the production line. There will be no choice between 739 and 739ER, just a number of options on the 739ER.
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whitehatter
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:38 pm

As usual everyone seems to think the aircraft can only be related to US routes and markets.

The 739ER could well sell into asian and other regions due to longer stage length. However many of the operators have substantial orders already out there, and again if this variant had come to market earlier then Boeing could have potentially shifted more.

There may be questions in the mind of buyers regarding the radical new pressure bulkhead design which is causing a wait-and-see effect, or just that the figures don't balance quite as well as they expect. For aircraft of the 737 segment operational cost is everything and the 738 seems much more accepted in fleets.

Don't expect to see them doing anything like the job of a 757 over water as they just don't stack up as well. The 752 has plenty of power and capability for that role, and certainly better takeoff performance. The 739ER is much better suited to a role supplanting the 757 as mentioned above for shorter stages.
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HEGAN
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:48 pm

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 15):
For aircraft of the 737 segment operational cost is everything and the 738 seems much more accepted in fleets.

I agree. New operators of the B737-900ER must operate the 'standard' version (B737-700/800) because it has been designed for the most economical operations.

The family, neither of the B737 nor the A320, can not be so economical because it is a derivate of the original design, and the big benefit of the purchase is the fleet commonality, and not the economy (up to a certain level, of course). All A318's customers use the A320, but they have bought the A318 for this commonality, because if they were looking for economy, they would have ordered Embraers.

Agur,
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mauriceb
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:56 pm

well don't forget is has just been launched... it will be the best 737 build so far, but think the main point here is that airlines wait untill it has flown...

airlines that shown interest in public are :

KLM -might come with a EMB-190 order , in wich KLM is very interrested , as an 737-400/300 F-100 replacement . Also KLM needs an replacement for the AMS-LHR route, wich is now still flown by the 767 1 or 2 times a day (but KLM stated that the 777 and A330 will be a temporary solution untill a good replacement)

JAL - we all know they have shown big interest

SpiceJet - '' ''

other potential airlines:

AA as mentioned above
CO they already operate the 900 , and would be a good 757 replacement
MH maybe when they will replace theire 737-400's?
RyanAir: a good 737 customer
SouthWest: with 190+ pax it can be covered by 4 FA's...
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:57 pm

I believe that the big problems facing ANY US legacy carrier have them not ordering any aircraft right now, including AA and CO. They simply cannot afford to order aircraft, period. No matter how good they are. This is the precise reason why they are not ordering 787's in great big batches either.

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 15):
The 739ER could well sell into asian and other regions due to longer stage length. However many of the operators have substantial orders already out there, and again if this variant had come to market earlier then Boeing could have potentially shifted more.

Very true, although I understand JAL is very interested in this aircraft, saw it in an article somewhere a while ago.
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Lemurs
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:52 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 6):
Yes, CO does have a number of 739s that mainly fly shorter-haul high-demand routes, but which CO routes require a 739ER?

The big transcon flights for CO are SEA-EWR, SFO-EWR, LAX-EWR, which depending on the time of the flight and time of the year, are operated by the 738, 752, and 753. I am certain CO would love to be able to use the 739 for more flexibility on those routes, since sometimes the 752 is still too much aircraft, and could be better used elsewhere. Right now they have no options between the 738 at 18F/132Y (new config) and 752 at 24F/159Y, but the 739ER at 18F/149Y would give them lot more operational flexibility. Each destination has 4x or 5x daily to EWR.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 18):
I believe that the big problems facing ANY US legacy carrier have them not ordering any aircraft right now, including AA and CO. They simply cannot afford to order aircraft, period. No matter how good they are. This is the precise reason why they are not ordering 787's in great big batches either.

While true for most US carriers, CO has been placing conservative orders every year for years now, after the big spurt under Bethune when the economy was booming. Note their 787 orders, additional 737 orders, and the 753 deal they swung with Boeing (even though they're TZ aircraft). I don't think anyone would be surprised by an order or conversion of orders to 739ER.

I have to be honest and admit I didn't consider the order conversion idea. That really does make the most sense for all carriers involved.
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as739x
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:28 am

Wow, no one mentioned Alaska.

SEA-MCO/BOS/MIA current route possibilities
SEA-ZIH/CUN future route between cities served
LAX-SJO/PTY and possible future Central American cities

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RedChili
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:49 am

This whole question depends upon when Boeing will launch the next generation narrowbody, or the new 737. If Boeing decides to launch one soon, then the 739ER will not get very many orders before the 737NG goes out of production. But if it will take another 10-15 years, then the 739ER could end up with a lot of orders.
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Lemurs
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:49 am

Quoting AS739X (Reply 20):
Wow, no one mentioned Alaska.

My bad! I even had them in mind while I mulled this over, for exactly those routes. I've done SEA-CUN r/t on the regular 900 before, and I HATE the LAX shuffle in there. If that could be non-stop I'd do it more often!

I think AS is a great fit, since they obviously like the -900's already, and have the routes that could use the extra range to boot.
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lehpron
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:50 am

Wasn't B739ER a superniche product as one said, at the request of a few customers? It's not like this plane will replace 752/3 variants just because, hence there are many possibilities, but why? If the rumors are true that Boeing may make either a 737-E or a future 797 out of similar engines to 787, they those airplanes might as well wait for that stretch version. Granted it may be longer but with current technology and the price of oil, it may be a better option.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 4):
But I agree- several more airlines should be interested in this aircraft.

Facinating statement; which airlines and under what circumstances? I hope it wasn't an opinion, for your sake.

[Edited 2005-10-20 00:54:23]
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aerokiwi
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:44 am

I would think that Virgin Blue or Qantas could do with them, especially Virgin Blue, as it currently has nothing larger than the 738 on domestic routes at the moment. They would be excellent for both transcon and the eastern seaboard shuttle.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:57 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 2):
The 739ER strikes me as another 753 or 764. A product with limited development costs designed and built for a customer at request. So, it may not have the widest appeal to all airlines.

Not quite. The 764 had the range most customers were asking for. If from the get go the 764 had been available with the same range as the 763ER, it would have sold... ok. The 739 has transcon range and that's what's required.
The 753 didn't make sense to me...

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Stitch
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:58 am

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 22):
I think AS is a great fit, since they obviously like the -900's already, and have the routes that could use the extra range to boot.

Actually, AS doesn't seem to be overly impressed with the 739, as they converted their remaining orders to 738s.

The 739ER strikes me as the plane the 739 should have been from Day 1, so I expect it should garner stronger interest to replace some of the older 752s then the 739 ever did.
 
2travel2know
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:12 am

Maybe CM is a candidate for the new B737-900?
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garpd
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:22 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 25):
The 753 didn't make sense to me...

It made perfect sense to those who pushed Boeing for it and subsequently bought it  Wink
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CRJ900
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RE: Why No Follow-up Orders For 737-900ER?

Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:16 pm

Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 24):
I would think that Virgin Blue or Qantas could do with them, especially Virgin Blue,

I agree. I just looked through an Airliner World mag that I have kept from January 2005 where is says that Virgin Blue and Air Macau are/were possibly getting into an agreement about some joint flying. Perfect! Virgin Blue/Pacific Blue/Asian Blue or whatever could fly the 739ER with 199 pax (4 FAs) Cairns-Macau which is about 5,600 km (source: great circle mapper) or other Northern OZ - Asia destinations also in the 5,000+ km range...

199 seats should allow for a 31" seat pitch which is acceptable for such long flights... (QF fly twice as long with the same pitch...)
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