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PanAm_DC10
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Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:16 pm

At least according to a report on Reuters;

By Chad Thomas
Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Airbus SAS Chief Executive Gustav Humbert does not expect any additional orders this year for the new double-decker A380 airliner, Reuters reported in an interview with Humbert at a conference in Berlin. Hubert told the wire service that his goal is to win an additional two to three contracts for the A380 next year.


(Reuters 10-19 online) http://de.today.reuters.com

Of the contracts that Mr Hubert expects to sign next year I assume Hainan Airlines could be considered to be one of them according to this;

Hainan Airlines is considering the Airbus SAS A380 as ``an aircraft that we could use in the future,'' Ren Weidong, general manager of purchasing, said in a telephone interview on Oct. 13.

Be good to see another Chinese carrier order the A380 any idea as to which other two carriers he could be referring to?

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leelaw
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:07 pm

I'm surprised that Airbus can't scrounge-up an order or option exercise to announce at Dubai. Perhaps, the A350 will take up the slack.

[Edited 2005-10-19 15:11:22]
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Thorben
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:36 pm

I don't expect any orders before the end of 2007, when the big boy will have completed his first year of service with SQ. Then, the economics/reliability will be known. Besides, at what time could anyone get the first one if they ordered now? Before 2009?

Hainan Airlines? Their only widebodies are some 767s, and they have a few 787s on order. It'll take some time before they'll buy an A380.

http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Hainan_Airlines
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Candid76
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:38 pm

Kingfisher only operate A320s. And they haven't been in business for a full year yet.
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:48 pm

I'm really surprised that he said that. AFAIK, SQ has an RFP for 9 388s or 747As that is to be decided before the end of the year. Is he saying that SQ will order the 747As? I find this a bit hard to believe.
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:49 pm

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter):
Kingfisher only operate A320s.

Sure looks like THEY'VE swallowed this 'commonality' thing whole, anyway.....  Smile

Anyone else get the feeling that Airbus should send Gustav Humbert on a management course so he'd learn to stop thinking aloud in the company of journalists who have their notebooks out, ballpoints poised, and tape-recorders switched on?

Or at least just to say 'Off the record' now and again.........
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n1786b
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:01 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 1):
Perhaps, the A350 will take up the slack.

Add the 777/787 to that and I think you may be close to the truth.

One day we have Leahy saying he could sell 30 more if he had the slots and now Humbert says no AB new customers this year?

I wouldn't be surprised to see Leahy pull a deal out of his ... well,... hat - just like the Kingfisher deal at Le Bourget.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 5):
Anyone else get the feeling that Airbus should send Gustav Humbert on a management course so he'd learn to stop thinking aloud in the company of journalists who have their notebooks out, ballpoints poised, and tape-recorders switched on?

Actually, I prefer it to the imp and JLs veiled insults and truth-stretching ad nauseum...

- N1786B
 
HS748
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:23 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
I don't expect any orders before the end of 2007, when the big boy will have completed his first year of service with SQ. Then, the economics/reliability will be known.

Sounds like flawed logic to me. On that basis why would any airline order any aircraft before it had proved itself in service?
 
HEGAN
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:32 pm

Airbus clearly said some time ago they expected one new customer per year. This year we have seen orders from UPS (10, converted from an A300 order), China Southern (5) and Kingfisher (5), what makes a good year. If a new order was made before 2006, it would be great, but really really difficult, as this airplane's sales are necessarily reduced.

Next year, for sure new orders will come, and possibly after the EIS. This Hainan Airlines' can be one of them.

Agur,
HEGAN
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PHXinterrupted
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:45 pm

Quoting HS748 (Reply 7):
Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
I don't expect any orders before the end of 2007, when the big boy will have completed his first year of service with SQ. Then, the economics/reliability will be known.

Sounds like flawed logic to me. On that basis why would any airline order any aircraft before it had proved itself in service?

Yes, but this is a pretty unique aircraft (and quite expensive) that is already behind delivery schedule. If I was an airline, I would probably be cautious about this one too.
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:53 pm

Quoting N1786b (Reply 6):
One day we have Leahy saying he could sell 30 more if he had the slots and now Humbert says no AB new customers this year?

He said no new A380 customers. You can bet EK will announce their 50-frame A350 order in Dubai.
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bakestar
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:06 am

Might we see an increase in orders by QF at its 85th birthday bash next month, in which the A380 is appearing for?
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:10 am

Too bad. I love to see success....not that the program is unsuccessful or anything, just a dissapointment to see no more orders this year.
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:13 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 12):
Too bad. I love to see success....not that the program is unsuccessful or anything, just a dissapointment to see no more orders this year.

If the A380 is going to perform as promised, there will be a surge of follow up orders in 2007 - and quite a few new customers, too in 2008 and 2009.

If it doesn't perform, then A380 program will be in trouble.
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redflyer
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:17 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 5):
Anyone else get the feeling that Airbus should send Gustav Humbert on a management course so he'd learn to stop thinking aloud in the company of journalists who have their notebooks out, ballpoints poised, and tape-recorders switched on?

Yep, he definitely has not spent enough time around Leahy.

I find it interesting that Leahy's comments - something to the affect of being able to sell another 30 frames if he had the production capacity - were made the same week as Humbert's. Two different ways of looking at the same issue (lack of sales)?

Quoting HEGAN (Reply 8):
Airbus clearly said some time ago they expected one new customer per year. This year we have seen orders from UPS (10, converted from an A300 order), China Southern (5) and Kingfisher (5), what makes a good year.

As I pointed out in a thread a few months ago on this same issue, that's a very poor sales standard because it doesn't mean squat if the one customer per year only ordered 3 or 4 airframes. It would be more impressive if they stepped up to the plate like any other sales organization and forecasted actual unit numbers, with the client number being a simple roll-up function of the forecast report.
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HEGAN
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:21 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 13):
If it doesn't perform, then A380 program will be in trouble.

Yes, like any other new airplane would be in trouble. But if that was the case, Airbus would solve the problems, just like Boeing did with the 777 or would do with the 787 if it was the case. The same thing made McDonnell-Douglas with the MD-11 (too late, but they done).

Agur,
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astuteman
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:51 am

How many airlines out there really waiting for the 389/389F?........
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:53 am

Quoting HEGAN (Reply 15):
Airbus would solve the problems, just like Boeing did with the 777

What were the problems with the 777 that Boeing had to solve?
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leelaw
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:01 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 16):
How many airlines out there really waiting for the 389/389F

IIRC, EK, FX, and VS have publicly expressed interest in the A389. Tim Clark has never been shy about saying it's the A389 EK truly covets.

[Edited 2005-10-19 18:03:30]

[Edited 2005-10-19 18:04:06]
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Halibut
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:11 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 12):
Too bad. I love to see success....not that the program is unsuccessful or anything, just a dissapointment to see no more orders this year.

There's only approx. 70 days left in 2005 !

Halibut
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jonathan-l
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:26 am

Quoting Dynkrisolo (Reply 4):
I'm really surprised that he said that. AFAIK, SQ has an RFP for 9 388s or 747As that is to be decided before the end of the year. Is he saying that SQ will order the 747As? I find this a bit hard to believe

MOU (memorandum of understanding) and PA (purchase agreement) are 2 different things. Only PA appear in order counts. If SQ announces its intention this year, it takes some time from the MOU to the PA, thus it would appear in next year orderbook.
 
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:04 am

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 20):
MOU (memorandum of understanding) and PA (purchase agreement) are 2 different things.

And how do you know SQ will not sign an agreement by the end of the year?

[Edited 2005-10-19 19:05:06]
 
n1786b
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:18 am

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter):
Quoting N1786b (Reply 6):
One day we have Leahy saying he could sell 30 more if he had the slots and now Humbert says no AB new customers this year?

He said no new A380 customers. You can bet EK will announce their 50-frame A350 order in Dubai.

Yes, my bad - I should have said no A380 orders.

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter):
Might we see an increase in orders by QF at its 85th birthday bash next month, in which the A380 is appearing for?

It seems as if Humbert ruled that out too...


- N1786B
 
Thorben
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:36 am

Quoting HS748 (Reply 7):
Sounds like flawed logic to me. On that basis why would any airline order any aircraft before it had proved itself in service?

There are enough airlines that want to see how it performs before they buy. Others want/need it and are willing to order without waiting that long.
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:41 am

Quoting HS748 (Reply 7):
Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
I don't expect any orders before the end of 2007, when the big boy will have completed his first year of service with SQ. Then, the economics/reliability will be known.

Sounds like flawed logic to me. On that basis why would any airline order any aircraft before it had proved itself in service?

the smart ones don't, especially if they are now being asked to pay full price!
 
N79969
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:18 am

The difference between Leahy's remarks and Humbert's remarks is that Humbert's words carry a lot more weight with investors and analysts. I think it is safe to say that his words will always be conservative when compared to those of his salesman-in-chief.
 
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:28 am

Leahy said he could sell 30 more if he had the capacity. He doesn't, so Humbert saying Leahy will not chalk up any more orders this year doesn't strike me as being "double-speak" or a sign the A380 program is suddenly seeing a drop in interest and orders.

Humbert is more or less confirming that Airbus can't meet the delivery demands of any pending orders Leahy feels he could land if Airbus had the capacity. If Airbus can shake a few more slots out of the delivery tree, and those slots meet the delivery demands of interested parties, then Leahy can probably ink some more deals.
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:33 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 5):
Anyone else get the feeling that Airbus should send Gustav Humbert on a management course

As you know Nav 20. in Australia at least, it is a serious matter for officials to make claims. which may unfairly influence the market, for a publicly traded company. Whilst Airbus is not a publicly traded company its parent is. I would expect Europe is the same.

Maybe Humbert is just more conservative in this regard. or maybe the new management team at Airbus is not as cohesive as we would like, and they are just testing the limits of their power and authority.

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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:06 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 5):
Anyone else get the feeling that Airbus should send Gustav Humbert on a management course so he'd learn to stop thinking aloud in the company of journalists who have their notebooks out, ballpoints poised, and tape-recorders switched on?

For an amateur - as certain armchair managers suggest - he must have had a lot of luck with getting into his position...  Yeah sure


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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:14 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
I don't expect any orders before the end of 2007, when the big boy will have completed his first year of service with SQ. Then, the economics/reliability will be known.

The 346 comes to mind.  Smile
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MarshalN
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:21 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 18):
IIRC, EK, FX, and VS have publicly expressed interest in the A389. Tim Clark has never been shy about saying it's the A389 EK truly covets.

Wasn't there a thread a little while ago saying how FX would place a fairly sizable order for the 389F if it were available now? It sounded like they really want it -- and would eat it up as soon as it shows up
 
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:23 am

NAV20 & N1786b you both attribute quotes to me which I didn't make, must be something with the quote text function  Smile

I believe Mr Humbert would be speaking with more considered view than that of a salesperson. That said, I forgot SQ's RFP, a decision is expected by year end on that, it will be interesting to see whether they place a follow on order.

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BlueSky1976
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:24 am

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 29):
The 346 comes to mind.

I think Airbus learned quite a few lessons from 346s EIS problems and will do their best not to repeat them with A380.
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leelaw
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:39 am

Quoting MarshalN (Reply 30):
Wasn't there a thread a little while ago saying how FX would place a fairly sizable order for the 389F if it were available now? It sounded like they really want it -- and would eat it up as soon as it shows up

IIRC, there was an article in FI a couple of weeks ago reporting that FX anticipates an "ultimate" fleet of approximately 200 A388/389s including new build aircraft and conversions from passenger aircraft.
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mariner
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:48 am

Fascinating, because you have two polarized comments on the same thing.

Clearly, this is not your Forgeard's Airbus.

Whatever dynamic existed between M. Forgeard and Mr. Leahy, it will be a different dynamic between Dr. Humbert and Mr. Leahy.

Mr. Leahy says he could have sold thirty more this year, Dr. Humbert says no more this year.

So - Dr. Humbert may have told Mr. Leahy to be the velvet foghorn and he will be the steel in the glove.

At the other end of the scale, Dr. Humbert may be telling Mr. Leahy to shut up.

Or - they may both just be testing each other.

I don't know which it is. But it is something. Unless you believe in a static world. Which I don't.

cheers

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Meafly
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:02 am

A380 Orders/Commitments

April 2001: 116

Oct. 2005: 159
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:32 am

Quoting Meafly (Reply 35):
A380 Orders/Commitments

April 2001: 116

Oct. 2005: 159

In 2000 they predicted sales of ~1400 a/c the size of the 380. Five years on, and as the only player in this sandbox, they have quite a lot of catching up to do.
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:36 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 36):
In 2000 they predicted sales of ~1400 a/c the size of the 380.

Quite a lot of things were said in civil aviation before 9/11 that are no longer valid.

cheers

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DfwRevolution
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:45 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 34):

Mr. Leahy says he could have sold thirty more this year, Dr. Humbert says no more this year.

To the contrary, there was often a contrast between what Leahy and Foregard would state. There were times of equally striking contradiction...

Quoting Mariner (Reply 34):
At the other end of the scale, Dr. Humbert may be telling Mr. Leahy to shut up.

I think it would be wise of him, the more people talking the more likely some one will say something stupid or contradicting. Either Leahy should be the primary public figure for Airbus (which he would be pleanty obliged and capable of doing) or his comments shouldn't pertain to speculative matters.

This was almost exactly how Boeing claimed they could sell 200 787 orders by the end of 2004...

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 31):
That said, I forgot SQ's RFP, a decision is expected by year end on that, it will be interesting to see whether they place a follow on order.

Ditto for CX, aren't they expected to announce an RFP in December?

Quoting HEGAN (Reply 15):
. But if that was the case, Airbus would solve the problems, just like Boeing did with the 777

The 777 didn't have half the production-related problems of the A388 or MD-11. The biggest stumbling block for the 777 was (1) overbudget, (2) after-market IFE problems, (3) Ge90 certification.

The PW4000 and Trent 800 777's nailed their entry into service deadlines and performance expectations. The 777 went remarkably smooth...

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 18):
EK, FX, and VS have publicly expressed interest in the A389.

FX? The A388 already has a low payload density, what would be the point of further inflating volume?
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:51 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 38):
there was often a contrast between what Leahy and Foregard would state. There were times of equally striking contradiction...

I'm not saying there were not. I am saying it was a different dynamic.

All relationships between people are different. I think.

cheers

mariner
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vincewy
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:12 am

Give it some time, there're airlines out there just holding off, too much risk to put in when the aircraft isn't in service, in Taiwan alone, CI could get as many as 20 (combo of cargo and passenger), maybe another 10 from BR, this will all depend on how A380 performs once launched.

Some of the current customers should be getting more than their firm orders, ie: SQ, KE, TG, MH
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:01 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 37):
Quite a lot of things were said in civil aviation before 9/11 that are no longer valid.

One of the things that was never said was that airline traffic would recover so quickly. Traffic returned to pre-9/11 levels in only three year's time and four years later, in 2005, we're about to break all kinds of records for aircraft orders placed with both manufacturers. Even aircraft orders for models many predicted were dead or dying (e.g., 747).

So what seems to be holding up the flood of orders that will take the 380 to the 1400 order mark by 2020?
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:01 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 28):
For an amateur - as certain armchair managers suggest - he must have had a lot of luck with getting into his position...

Why do you assume that everyone you meet on here is - or has only ever been - an armchair manager, JetMaster?

Part of Humbert's job as CEO is to 'square the circle' - to make sure that his public pronouncements 'chime' with what everyone else is saying, so that (in public at least) the company appears to be under efficient direction and working as a team. He should have found a 'form of words' that reconciled his comments with those of Leahy (which wouldn't have been hard to do).

The fact that he didn't do that leaves only two possibilities - either he didn't CARE what Leahy had said, or he didn't KNOW what Leahy had said. I'm not sure which of the two possibilities is the worse.......
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Crosswind
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:17 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 38):
FX? The A388 already has a low payload density, what would be the point of further inflating volume?

Better ask FedEx, but I'd have said as primarily a package carrier the cargo FedEx hauls isn't high density. In any case, they have said they'd take the A389F now if it were available....

FedEx outlines its A380F fleet expansion strategy

FedEx Express expects to bolster its A380 fleet with a cargo version of the planned A380-900 stretch within 10 years, and converted passenger versions of the baseline model by 2020.

Speaking at last month’s Cargo Facts 2005 conference in Seattle, David Sutton, managing director of aircraft development acquisitions and sales in FedEx’s A380 programme office, said that while the package carrier would “love to have the -900 now” he expected a cargo version of the larger model would be available around 2014/2015 – six to seven years after it is due to receive the baseline -800F.


[Full article available via headline hotlink]

Regards
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:54 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 41):
So what seems to be holding up the flood of orders that will take the 380 to the 1400 order mark by 2020?

Gosh. I have never seen history - or even current affairs - in isolation.

The non-US airlines might be in recovery mode - might - the US airlines are not. Almost half the available seats being sold are by bankrupt airlines.

There has been no major aircraft order by a major US airline since 9/11, and I would suggest - only suggest - this has disrupted the usual balance for new aircraft supply.

Without 9/11, it is possible that Boeing would have proceeded with the Sonic Cruiser - and that American Airlines, at least, would have ordered a bunch

That would surely have changed the dynamic of air travel, and it is possible to suggest - only suggest - that the 787 might not have been developed.

Has 9/11 affected the price of oil? I have no idea, but Iraq has. Without 9/11, I could argue there would have been no invasion of Iraq.

And the price of oil has certainly affected the airlines, all of whom - no matter what orders they are placing - have become considerably more cautious than before 9/11. They are not taking risks in what they order.

I would suspect - only suspect - that airlines will remain conservative until (a) they are on sounder economic footing (b) until they know what oil is going to do and (c) they have a somewhat clearer picture of what the future may hold.

At the other end of the scale, before 9/11 and the crsis in US civil aviation, the RJ was the wave of the future. Since 9/11 and the subsequent airline economics, that wave has surely crested.

I did very well with shares in Bombarier before 9/11. I wouldn't want to own those same shares today. Just today, Horizon has converted seven orders for CR7's to Q400's.

This is all fairly basic stuff. I have to wonder if you are joshing me in even asking the question?

cheers

mariner
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:15 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 44):
There has been no major aircraft order by a major US airline since 9/11

Oh, my apologies then; I didn't realize the A380 was geared towards the U.S. airline industry. Especially since so few already fly the 747.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 44):
I would suspect - only suspect - that airlines will remain conservative until (a) they are on sounder economic footing (b) until they know what oil is going to do and (c) they have a somewhat clearer picture of what the future may hold.

Yes, I suppose it's easy to suspect that, especially when some 65 airlines have placed firm orders with both Airbus and Boeing for around 1,052 airframes for just the first nine months of the year.

Gee, I can only wonder what kind of banner year we'll have when the world's airlines are no longer "conservative" and are all on "sounder economic footing".

[Edited 2005-10-20 04:16:30]

[Edited 2005-10-20 04:16:54]
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:25 am

So I was right. If you are not going to read what I write, why did you even ask the question?

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 45):
Oh, my apologies then; I didn't realize the A380 was geared towards the U.S. airline industry. Especially since so few already fly the 747.

I did not say the A380 was was geared towards the US industry. I said that the Sonic Cruiser and the lack of the 787 would have changed the dynamic.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 45):
Gee, I can only wonder what kind of banner year we'll have when the world's airlines are no longer "conservative" and are all on "sounder economic footing".

If you seriously believe that any airline out there - with the possible exception of Emirates - thinks itself to be on "sound economic footing" then I wish you joy in your bubble.

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mariner
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:57 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 46):
If you are not going to read what I write, why did you even ask the question?

I did read what you wrote. I just think the excuses for a lack of 380 orders are just that - excuses. Fact is, the aircraft has been in development for some six years (11 if you count the years spent doing initial research and feasibility studies); is still over a year away from EIS; and the market demand has simply not materialized. And more to the point of your comment about 9/11, all that event did was set the industry back by about three years, four at most. Air travel is now exceeding pre-9/11 levels and is projected to grow by some 3 - 6% annually. Seems to me the market should be begging for 380's to alleviate congestion, which is what the 380 was touted to do by its proponents.

Now you, on the other hand, have failed to tell me why this is turning into one of the best, if not the best, years for Airbus and Boeing sales if the airline travel industry is so bad. Sure, airlines may still not be in pristine financial condition. But given the 1,052 orders as of the end of September, they certainly expect to be shortly by the time those orders mature into deliveries. And remember: airlines don't order based on what's happening this very day; they order based on what they expect to be happening by the time their orders are delivered.

Given that airlines feel confident in the FUTURE of the industry enough that they are placing orders in record numbers, and given that airline travel has surpassed pre-9/11 levels, where are the orders for the 380 that will alleviate the slot-restricted airports that comprise the major hubs? If I were an airline that believed in Messrs. Leahy and Humbert and their highly touted 380, I would place an order immediately, especially since all the initial delivery slots are taken and knowing that in two to three year's time the market could be as much as 18% more congested.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 46):
I did not say the A380 was was geared towards the US industry.

My apologies. I thought since you devoted several lines of text explaining how the U.S. airlines are suffering in answering my question about the lack of orders for the 380...

Quoting Mariner (Reply 46):
then I wish you joy in your bubble.

Frankly, it's not a bad bubble to be in. I would guess Airbus and Boeing would agree with me.
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:07 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 47):
I just think the excuses for a lack of 380 orders are just that - excuses.

Oh. Was I supposed to be offering excuses for the sales of the A380? I don't remember saying I would do that.

I said:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 37):
Quite a lot of things were said in civil aviation before 9/11 that are no longer valid.

When does "no longer valid" become a defense of the A380?

You, on the other hand, seem determined to prove to me that 9/11 has changed nothing in civil aviation.

Okay. If that's what you believe, fine. As I say, your bubble and welcome to it.

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mariner
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RE: Airbus: No More A380 Orders This Year

Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:20 pm

Let's see, I originally said in reply #36:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 36):
In 2000 they predicted sales of ~1400 a/c the size of the 380. Five years on, and as the only player in this sandbox, they have quite a lot of catching up to do.

To which you replied:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 37):
Quite a lot of things were said in civil aviation before 9/11 that are no longer valid.

So, I assumed you were trying to explain away the dearth in orders for the 380. And to that explanation (AKA excuse) I simply said, in essence, I don't buy it.

So for saying I don't buy into your analysis, I am banished to a bubble.

Oh, well. It was a pleasure parrying with you. Sorry to see you gave up so easily.
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.