bakestar
Posts: 87
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QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:22 pm

I as everyone of you are eager to finally know the decision of QF for the their next fleet upgrade, or in other words the 777/A340 & 787/A350 decision,

Here is an article from 'The Australian' newspaper that might put some of you at ease (for the moment anyway)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au.../0,5744,16979228%255E23349,00.html

my money is on a mix of both airbus & boeing.
fly'nhi
 
tsentsan
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QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:24 pm

What an appropriate date for the decision to be made... I'm sure if the order goes either way, the "loosing" party will proclaim it to be FDR did on the same day some years ago.
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NYC777
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QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:07 pm

ATWOnline ran the same story yesterday http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=2778 but with one addition...Airbus has apparently told QF that the A340-500 is out of the running because it can't do LHR-SYD year round non stop. They also added that the 772LR can't do it either (gee that's not a surprise coming from Airbus).

Dixon said Airbus has advised that its A340-500 is not a contender for the Sydney-London Heathrow route and added that the route is not without its challenges for the 777-200LR.

IMO, if this is true then Boeing can amke a great deal for both the 777 and 787 package that QF will find hard to refuse. I think it's going to go Boeing all the way.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
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RE: QF To Made Decision On Dec 7

Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:23 pm

Quoting Bakestar (Thread starter):
my money is on a mix of both airbus & boeing.

I agree...will be interesting to see what kind of plane goes where...One possibility is for QF to get Boeings and JetStar to get Airbus.......

A mix of Boeings and Airbus for both would be interesting, but fleet type and mission profile would probably be the over riding profile.

what would really be interesting is if Boeing offers a "787-10" version,
"Up the Irons!"
 
DAYflyer
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:33 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 3):
what would really be interesting is if Boeing offers a "787-10" version,

It would indeed, for Boeing could then get the whole pie in a mix of 787-8/9/10 and 777-200ULR & 300ER. Plus if they can lock in Emirates with the 787-10 order, the program would be immediately viable, although this would cause the demise of all pax varients of the 777-200 excepting the ULR.
One Nation Under God
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:56 pm

Quoting Bakestar (Thread starter):
my money is on a mix of both airbus & boeing.

All the signs are that it will be a clean sweep for Boeing.
The 783 and 789 are a good fit for what QF require and the 772LR is the only aircraft that can perform their stated intention of SYD-LHR.
QF have stated they will not be adding any more A330's and do not view them as satisfactory for domestic ops.
Its not so much a case of Airbus offering inferior aircraft but of not being able to offer aircraft that fit in well with QF's requirements.

This is going to be a massive order.
My guess at the breakdown would be:

25 783,s firm
35 789's firm
10 772LR's firm
40 783/9 options and 10 772LR options.

Airbus may score some A380 options being converted to firm orders.


Cheers,
StickShaker
 
flyinghippo
Posts: 690
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:05 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
the 772LR is the only aircraft that can perform their stated intention of SYD-LHR.

When did the 772LR got it's range increase to do SYD-LHR non-stop? I thought the wind will prevent it from doing so? The 772ULR is still at the discussion stage, do you think QF will be the launch customer for 772ULR?

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 3):
One possibility is for QF to get Boeings and JetStar to get Airbus.......

I have a question about QF and JetStar... I understand that QF is the parent company of JetStar, but why do they have to operate aircrafts from different manufacturers? Especially if JetStar will start to operate on routes to the US, their mission profiles will become more similar to QF... then why operate different planes?
 
NAV20
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:25 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
All the signs are that it will be a clean sweep for Boeing.

I think that would be the size of it if the decision was taken purely on business terms. But there are many good reasons for not completely 'freezing out' the other manufacturer.

However, I think the A330 and A345 can be ruled out; and so can the A350, on the basis of uncertainty about both eventual performance and delivery dates.

My hunch is that the lion's share will go to Boeing, but that Qantas may order some A346s to replace some of their older 747s, and allocate them to their LCCs for use on holiday routes.

[Edited 2005-10-20 16:26:35]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
PHXinterrupted
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:43 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
My hunch is that the lion's share will go to Boeing, but that Qantas may order some A346s to replace some of their older 747s, and allocate them to their LCCs for use on holiday routes.

With the price of fuel being what it is, and forecasted to be, I think Qantas would be foolish to chose the 346 over the 777.
Keepin' it real.
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:12 am

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
I have a question about QF and JetStar... I understand that QF is the parent company of JetStar, but why do they have to operate aircrafts from different manufacturers? Especially if JetStar will start to operate on routes to the US, their mission profiles will become more similar to QF... then why operate different planes?

To differentiate the low cost brand from the mainline carrier, Jetstar have A320s. In addition, it was to differentiate Jetstar from Virgin Blue, which operates Boeing 737s.

Another guess is that there is a pool of A320 qualified pilots in Australia since the demise of Ansett. Just a guess!

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
When did the 772LR got it's range increase to do SYD-LHR non-stop? I thought the wind will prevent it from doing so? The 772ULR is still at the discussion stage, do you think QF will be the launch customer for 772ULR?

From what I can gather, they're offering a 4 auxiliary fuel tank which will make it viable. You must also remember that the SYD-LHR non-stop would be aimed at business travellers - there may be no first or economy product at all.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 2):
I think it's going to go Boeing all the way.

I agree!

Trent.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
JetMaster
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:09 am

Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 8):

With the price of fuel being what it is, and forecasted to be, I think Qantas would be foolish to chose the 346 over the 777.

There are various aspects to be considered when choosing a new aircraft type, not just fuel burn...


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
kiwiandrew

RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:11 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 9):
Another guess is that there is a pool of A320 qualified pilots in Australia since the demise of Ansett. Just a guess!

that was over 4 years ago - how many of them are

a/ still in Australia?
b/ still current on A320?
 
boysteve
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:44 am

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
he 772LR is the only aircraft that can perform their stated intention of SYD-LHR

I still don't believe this is viable. Too many flights would have to make a stop due to weather. Their 'none-stop' advertising would become essentially a joke
 
jacobin777
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:17 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 4):
It would indeed, for Boeing could then get the whole pie in a mix of 787-8/9/10 and 777-200ULR & 300ER. Plus if they can lock in Emirates with the 787-10 order, the program would be immediately viable, although this would cause the demise of all pax varients of the 777-200 excepting the ULR.

well...there has been a thread and an online article about Boeing potentially offering the 787-10 model....if there are enough customers who want it, you can be sure that Boeing will build it....

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
I have a question about QF and JetStar... I understand that QF is the parent company of JetStar, but why do they have to operate aircrafts from different manufacturers? Especially if JetStar will start to operate on routes to the US, their mission profiles will become more similar to QF... then why operate different planes?



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
allocate them to their LCCs for use on holiday routes.

I think it separates the brand..and that's what the pupose of JetStar is...and quite possibly, the mission profile would be better suited.....just a guess.
"Up the Irons!"
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:55 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 10):
There are various aspects to be considered when choosing a new aircraft type, not just fuel burn...

Irregardless, there are few (if any reasons) to suggest the A340-NG has any favor at QF. These days, the opperational cost of the 777LR outstrip virtually all aspects of the A340.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 4):
It would indeed, for Boeing could then get the whole pie in a mix of 787-8/9/10 and 777-200ULR & 300ER.

I don't believe the QF RFP is focused on any part of the "787-10" concept, A359, 772ER, etc market. They are essentially looking at the 777LR variants and the 787 v A350.

What would interset QF is a 787-9HGW

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 4):
Plus if they can lock in Emirates with the 787-10 order, the program would be immediately viable, although this would cause the demise of all pax varients of the 777-200 excepting the ULR.

I don't think that is of consequence. The 772ER had its day in the sun, and orders had slowed long before the words 787 and "dash 10" had ever been pieced together.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):

My hunch is that the lion's share will go to Boeing, but that Qantas may order some A346s to replace some of their older 747s, and allocate them to their LCCs for use on holiday routes.

The A340 appears to be a lost cause at QF. Airbus best shot would be the A350...
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:59 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 10):
There are various aspects to be considered when choosing a new aircraft type, not just fuel burn...

And I would bet that the 773ER still beats the crap out of the A346 on most of these other aspects...and don't give me the ETOPS crap. If the price is right, nobody cares how many engines the plane has (well, as long as it has at least one!).
 
Sydscott
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 7:29 am

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):

25 783,s firm
35 789's firm
10 772LR's firm
40 783/9 options and 10 772LR options

I don't think you'll find a firm order for 60 planes will emerge from all of this. The market would have a heart attack. I think the maximum firm order you will see for Boeings is for 40 aircraft consisting mostly of 787's with a handful of 777's.

Nor do I agree it will be Boeing all the way. Certainly for long haul it seems as if the 787/777 combination will win the day for Boeing. QF has never really shown an interest in the A340 family of aircraft and I can't see that changing. However Airbus is definitely in with a chance of scoring some additional A320's to help Jetstar grow and the A350 is a chance to get over the line for Jetstar International assuming QF wants fleet differentiation between their mainline and LCC aircraft. I think that will be a factor in the decision because if you order just the 787 for both JQ Heavy and Qantas mainline, the labour groups will demand parity of pay & conditions for flying the aircraft. Whereas if you order the 787 for mainline and the A350 for JQ heavy, you automatically have a point of differentiation. Still it is all going to come down to price at the end of the day.
 
QFA001
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:02 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
The 783 and 789 are a good fit for what QF require and the 772LR is the only aircraft that can perform their stated intention of SYD-LHR.

Not that I need to be sold on it, but I'm not sold on QF using -200LRs LHR-SYD vv. IMHO, it's a distance too far for that airplane. Over-engineering an over-engineered airplane is perplexing. I hope that if QF buys the airplane that they will concentrate on routes such as LHR-PER vv or DFW-SYD vv.

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
I have a question about QF and JetStar... I understand that QF is the parent company of JetStar, but why do they have to operate aircrafts from different manufacturers? Especially if JetStar will start to operate on routes to the US, their mission profiles will become more similar to QF... then why operate different planes?

The genesis of the split fleet has come under Dixon's leadership. He believes that the airline needs a dual-supplier strategy in order to keep procurement costs down. (It's fashionable right now. In the early '90s, becoming single-supplier was the way to keep procurement costs down.) However, perhaps more importantly, it means that QF's subsidiaries can hold QF mainline at arm's length and not be subject to the same high cost structure. In other words, internal differentiation.

Anyhow, I think I'm just repeating what other's have mentioned.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 16):
I don't think you'll find a firm order for 60 planes will emerge from all of this. The market would have a heart attack. I think the maximum firm order you will see for Boeings is for 40 aircraft consisting mostly of 787's with a handful of 777's.

It depends on how QF sells the deal, right? If the new airplanes are viewed by the market as being very fuel-efficient and a positive for the company, then the market might not lose their collective minds? Or, is that wishful thinking on my behalf?

 airplane QFA001
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:14 pm

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 16):
I don't think you'll find a firm order for 60 planes will emerge from all of this.

Media releases by QF in the last few days suggest an order of this size - not easy to keep up with what QF want as it changes so often but the current "theme" suggests an order of 60-100 widebodies.
QF are mindful of the encroach of EK, SQ and other onto their territory and want an appropriate fleet to defend that territory. They would have realised that they wont be able to keep these competitors of the pacific routes forever.

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
When did the 772LR got it's range increase to do SYD-LHR non-stop?

QF are looking at an all premium service with slightly modified 772LR's - "lightened interior" and extra tankage.


I think the 346 probably has more merit than some give it credit for here but it doesn't seem to have a snowballs chance in hell in getting over the line at QF. Geoff Dixon has publicly stated his admiration for the 777 on several occasions.

My money is still on a big order (60 firm) and a big win for Boeing.

Cheers,
StickShaker
 
JetMaster
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 2:37 pm

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 15):
And I would bet that the 773ER still beats the crap out of the A346 on most of these other aspects...and don't give me the ETOPS crap.

"Crap" seems to be your favourite word...  Yeah sure

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 15):
If the price is right, nobody cares how many engines the plane has (well, as long as it has at least one!).

And if the price is right, an airline might choose one type over another...  Wink


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
antares
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 2:46 pm

Stickshaker,

I can't see any press release in media relations on Qantas.com that endorse the 777 or disendorse the A340. All I have read are statements attirubted to Dixon or Qantas sources.

Personally I think Boeing is in the box seat here, although if it doesn't produce a 787-10 in time it will also loose big time in that part of its renewal requirements.

The Australian today referred to a decision 'early in the New Year' only a day after reporting that a recommendation would go to the board by December 7. Those statements are not mutually exclusive, but the gap between recommendation and action is so long you'd expect the decision to be leaked everwhere.

The crucial external factor here is the lifting of the foreign equity cap by the government. If it doesn't lift it I am also firmly and advisedly of the view that Qantas will suddenly reduce the sweep of the new investments it will otherwise go ahead with.

Antares
 
iwok
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Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 2:35 pm

RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:24 pm

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 10):
There are various aspects to be considered when choosing a new aircraft type, not just fuel burn...

Right you are. Price and availablilty are also very important. Considering that Boeing alreay has orders and commitments for 256 787's plus another 26 UFO's, and their projected production schedule is about 84/year, availability could become an issue. Coupled to that, an in-demand plane has lower discounts. These two factors may weigh heavily on the total number of Boeing planes ordered.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 13):
well...there has been a thread and an online article about Boeing potentially offering the 787-10 model....if there are enough customers who want it, you can be sure that Boeing will build it....

Again, I still worry about the supply side. Even if the 787-10 is built, there will be a mighty long wait. Given that 777, 767, 330 and 346/5 are available now I wouldn't discount significant numbers of either being ordered. A nice little batch of 767's could help on the high frequency routes.

I have a hard time believing that QF would order up to 60 planes all from Boeing. I'd love to be proven wrong, but the all Boeing deal is far from closed in my mind.

iwok
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:44 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
I can't see any press release in media relations on Qantas.com that endorse the 777 or disendorse the A340. All I have read are statements attirubted to Dixon or Qantas sources

Hi Antares
The comments I refer to are those made by Dixon on several occasions in the last 12-18 months in various interviews (dont have a source at hand). Dont think I've ever heard him praise the 340.

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
The crucial external factor here is the lifting of the foreign equity cap by the government

Yes - very crucial. I agree that if the cap remains then QF will be spending much less.

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
Personally I think Boeing is in the box seat here, although if it doesn't produce a 787-10 in time it will also loose big time in that part of its renewal requirements

QF would probably convert some 789 options to 787-10 further down the track once the program is launched - which probably wont be as early as many seem to think. Boeing have quite a bit of R&D ahead of them before launching another derivative.


Cheers,
StickShaker
 
astuteman
Posts: 6341
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:17 pm

Quoting Iwok (Reply 21):
Price and availablilty are also very important.

IMHO one of the key reasons that most large orders get split - the guys want new metal (plastic?), fast.
 
Sydscott
Posts: 3072
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:26 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 18):
Media releases by QF in the last few days suggest an order of this size - not easy to keep up with what QF want as it changes so often but the current "theme" suggests an order of 60-100 widebodies.

Not a firm order though. Fuel efficient or not the market would have a heart attach at such a massive FIRM order. A mix of firm, options and rolling options will most likely be used with only 30% to 40% of the total order being firm up front.

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
If it doesn't lift it I am also firmly and advisedly of the view that Qantas will suddenly reduce the sweep of the new investments it will otherwise go ahead with.

You mean when it doesn't lift. I still can't see any momentum for lifting the cap. Not unless you give the National Party some sweetners in any case. Maybe appoint Tim Fischer to the Board??? I mean the closest James Packer got to an airline business was flying up front before he joined the Qantas Board so why not appoint a farmer??

Quoting Iwok (Reply 21):
Considering that Boeing alreay has orders and commitments for 256 787's plus another 26 UFO's, and their projected production schedule is about 84/year, availability could become an issue

Boeing is already considering increasing the production rate of the 787. A firm commitment from Qantas would, I think, be the deciding factor for this. I therefore don't think that availabiltity issues will come into this. I'd think it likely that QF has hedged its bets both ways and taken some delivery slots on types at both Airbus and Boeing. The winner gets these confirmed, the loser gets them cancelled.

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
but the gap between recommendation and action is so long you'd expect the decision to be leaked everwhere.

I agree. If the final decision is actually taken to buy aircraft at that board meeting then an announcement will be made very shortly after that. Actually I think the giveaway for when the final announcement is to be made can be made by watching the movements of the respective Airbus and Boeing officials. If both enter the country at one time and one leaves then we know who has won. Alternatively if one arrives in Australia just after, or at the same time as, this meeting then we will know who has won. And I don't just mean the salesman. It will be a major order for either the A350 or 787 so I'd expect the relevant program heads, or someone just below them, to be here.
 
anstar
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:56 pm

Is the 773er still being considered as a 747 replacement?
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 4834
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:58 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 2):
Airbus has apparently told QF that the A340-500 is out of the running because it can't do LHR-SYD year round non stop. They also added that the 772LR can't do it either (gee that's not a surprise coming from Airbus).

I don't think you are reading the article closely enough. It wasn't AIRBUS claiming that the LHR-SYD route was "challenging" even for the 772LR but Dixon. Read your own quote:

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 2):
Dixon said Airbus has advised that its A340-500 is not a contender for the Sydney-London Heathrow route and added that the route is not without its challenges for the 777-200LR.

We're (you're) all assuming that an order for 772LRs is a forgone conclusion. I wonder...
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:04 pm

Quoting ANstar (Reply 25):
Is the 773er still being considered as a 747 replacement?

The B777-300ER is a replacement for the B747-100/200/300.
 
WINGS
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:48 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
The B777-300ER is a replacement for the B747-100/200/300.

I believe that Anstar was referring to Qantas replacement for its B747-300 fleet. In general both the B777-300 and A340-600 are excellent replacement for the B747-200 and -300.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:52 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 28):
In general both the B777-300 and A340-600 are excellent replacement for the B747-200 and -300.

Generally, yes. Specifically, if 4 engines are necessary, then the A340-600 is a good replacement. If 4 engines are not necessary, then the B777-300ER is a good replacement.
 
VHTAE
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Jan 24, 2004 8:19 pm

RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:09 pm

I hope Australian Airlines receive new aircraft, or will they take the Qantas 763's?

It will be disappointing if Qantas abolishes Australian Airlines as I hear they have plans to make Jetstar operate a 2 class operation on international routes.

VH-TAE.
 
Thorben
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:42 pm

Despite all the bashing of it, the A346 would still be the ideal plane for the flights to JFK, SFO, LAX and JNB. It has four engines, makes pax feel more comfortable above the pacific, has the quieter cabin, which is important on very long flights, has a great fleet commonality with the A380 and A330, and costs less than the T7. That should make up for the 5-6% fuel that it needs more.

And how about a non-stop SYD-JFK with an A345??
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
dalecary
Posts: 834
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 6:13 am

Ummm....haven't they specifically ruled out the A345 and reading certain well sourced people's comments here, the A340 is out of the running at QF. So, dream your little fantasies about A345/6 at QF, but they won't turn into reality.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 9:20 am

Quoting Iwok (Reply 21):

I have a hard time believing that QF would order up to 60 planes all from Boeing. I'd love to be proven wrong, but the all Boeing deal is far from closed in my mind.

I couldn't agree more, QF and JetStar will probably go with a Boeing/Airbus tandem selection....

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 24):
Boeing is already considering increasing the production rate of the 787. A firm commitment from Qantas would, I think, be the deciding factor for this.

I think QF and EK are giving Boeing 2nd thoughts about not developing the 787-10................if Boeing does not develop the 787-10, look for the advantage to go towards Airbus..

Quoting PM (Reply 26):

I don't think you are reading the article closely enough. It wasn't AIRBUS claiming that the LHR-SYD route was "challenging" even for the 772LR but Dixon. Read your own quote:

the article was correct....it states that Airbus has told (advised) Dixon that the A345 is out of the running..

"Dixon said Airbus has advised that its A340-500 is not a contender for the Sydney-London Heathrow route and added that the route is not without its challenges for the 777-200LR."

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 18):
QF are mindful of the encroach of EK, SQ and other onto their territory and want an appropriate fleet to defend that territory.

with SQ being the largest 777 operator in the world, and QF matching SQ's WhaleJet pax numbers, you might have something there.....thus, I would like to conculde that QF goes for the 777.. biggrin 


QF/EK/SQ/CX potential orders are the highlights for the next few months.....will be fun to watch.. yes 
"Up the Irons!"
 
dutchjet
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 9:32 am

I think that we are getting a bit too specific here - from what we have been hearing, Boeing seems to have the lead in the order and we will see QF commit to the 777 and 787 families......Boeing will give QF a lot of flexibility as to variants within each family, thus we will see a mix of 772LRs/773ERs with QF having lots of time to decide how many of each variant it will need....so much depends upon whether the 772LR will be tweaked to do LHR-SYD yearround roundtrip with an economic payload. The same is true for the 787 - QF will intially commit for a mix of the current 787 models with the right to upgrade to the 787-10 if and when launched. We are talking about a large order for aircraft that will not be delivered for many many years, and I think that this flexibility will be a key component of the potentional order.

Airbus may or may not pick up some orders here as well - and if JetStar does introduce longer haul routes they will require some Airbus widebodies - the big question I have is whether new build aircraft are ordered for JetStar or if QF transfers its existing A332/A333 fleet to JetStar?
 
pilotdude09
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:54 am

I thought they were ordering more 737-800s? and maybe some 900s?
Because most of their 400s are going to jetconnect. But hopefully it'l be boeing all the way
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PM
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:05 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 33):
Quoting PM (Reply 26):

I don't think you are reading the article closely enough. It wasn't AIRBUS claiming that the LHR-SYD route was "challenging" even for the 772LR but Dixon. Read your own quote:

the article was correct....it states that Airbus has told (advised) Dixon that the A345 is out of the running..

"Dixon said Airbus has advised that its A340-500 is not a contender for the Sydney-London Heathrow route and added that the route is not without its challenges for the 777-200LR."

Will you PLEASE read carefully? (1. the original quote and 2. what I argued in reply #26.)

Yes, Airbus have told QF that the A345 is out of the running.

But it is DIXON in the quote who is saying that the 772LR will also find the route challenging.
 
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 6:18 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
25 783,s firm
35 789's firm
10 772LR's firm
40 783/9 options and 10 772LR options.

Interesting that the B787-8 isn't in that guess. I would have thought QF would also go for the B787-8
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zeke
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:17 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 18):
QF are mindful of the encroach of EK, SQ and other onto their territory and want an appropriate fleet to defend that territory.

I saw something about that in the news, I thought whilst that may in fact be true, overall traffic into Australia has been increased last year by 9.5% it maybe just the sort of ammunition Geoff Dixon needs for industrial reform to lower its cost base for fight, cabin and engineering staff.

I thought from the news articles last week it pointed to more of a justification of starting Jetstar International with wide body aircraft. It has been confirmed that Jetstar will start simulator training on the 330 in the Qantas simulator centre on the 29th of Oct.

Timing has to be an issue, obviously with Jetstar starting training on the 330, it would mean 777's for QF mainline, CX, EK, and SQ are doing well on traffic into Australia from Asia. Think CX had around a 20% increase SQ 12% increase, EK 62% increase of passengers into Australia last year, while QF only 11%.

Its being killed on routes when it competes with SQ, they brought in over 2 million people from Singapore in 2004, whilst QF only about 930000.

News articles from last week suggest 100 aircraft, given the split of domestic and international fleets, I see it being split between manufactures especially for the Jetstar as the initial airframe cost from one manufacturer is less than another.

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 32):
Ummm....haven't they specifically ruled out the A345 and reading certain well sourced people's comments here, the A340 is out of the running at QF.

Dale your 777 passon is noted, could you confirm the only thing that has been publicly said is the 340-500 is out of the running for SYD-LHR ?

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
The crucial external factor here is the lifting of the foreign equity cap by the government.

How does that work, I don’t understand. I thought 70% of the Qantas debt was already overseas ?

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
I have a question about QF and JetStar... I understand that QF is the parent company of JetStar, but why do they have to operate aircrafts from different manufacturers?

From what I heard they got 60 odd A320s from Airbus at a good deal (firms and options) and burn less fuel than the 737s. They inherited 717's from Impulse, added a few more to the fleet, and are in the process of transferring these to National Jet to operate as Qatas Link.

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 9):
Another guess is that there is a pool of A320 qualified pilots in Australia since the demise of Ansett. Just a guess!

I think the pool of A320 pilots has grown since Ansett days, with about 30 A320s being operated now out of Australia and Singapore (Jetstar, Jetstar Asia, Valuair).

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
All the signs are that it will be a clean sweep for Boeing.

Apparently Geoff Dixon is in North America this week, make what you will out of that.
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:57 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 38):
How does that work, I don’t understand. I thought 70% of the Qantas debt was already overseas ?

Qantas had a Foreign ownership limit imposed as part of the Qantas Sale Act when it was privatised. Basically it ensures that the majority of the ordinary voting shares of the company are held by Australians. Qantas has been lobbying to have the cap raised from its current 48% or 49% so that it can access foreign equity markets and get more foreing investor money in.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 38):
From what I heard they got 60 odd A320s from Airbus at a good deal (firms and options) and burn less fuel than the 737s. They inherited 717's from Impulse, added a few more to the fleet, and are in the process of transferring these to National Jet to operate as Qatas Link.

Plus there were ex AN pilots around that could fly them and the labour rates were cheaper than for the 737's.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 38):
Dale your 777 passon is noted, could you confirm the only thing that has been publicly said is the 340-500 is out of the running for SYD-LHR ?

Yes it has been ruled out for SYD-LHR. But they wont split the Ultra Long Range fleet as the numbers will be too small. So if Boeing can get the 777LR to fly SYD-LHR-SYD non-stop then they will get the order. If Geoff Dixon is going to North America to meet Boeing then it will be to get an update on the whether the plane can do this or not.
 
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:52 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 36):
Will you PLEASE read carefully? (1. the original quote and 2. what I argued in reply #26.)

Yes, Airbus have told QF that the A345 is out of the running.

But it is DIXON in the quote who is saying that the 772LR will also find the route challenging.

I'm not the only one who seems to be misinterpreting your comments... no 
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dalecary
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:09 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 38):
Dale your 777 passon is noted, could you confirm the only thing that has been publicly said is the 340-500 is out of the running for SYD-LHR ?

Yep, the 345 is the only model to be publicly ruled out, but I'm very confident that no A340 model will be ordered by the QF group. The stories re QF having a general dislike for the A340 are, well.......................TRUE.
Still, QF aren't the only airline preferring the 772LR/773ER to the A345/6. However, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see no 777s ordered and the bulk of this order made up by 787s to QF and A350s to JQ. The 772LR is certainly no sure thing as the case for the SYD-LHR non-stop model looks too flawed to me and 744 replacement is yet to be decided, possibly meaning no 773ER order.
 
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:12 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 31):
It has four engines, makes pax feel more comfortable above the pacific,

QF and NZ have both successfully flown long over water Pacific sectors with 767's for many years against competitors flying 4 engine aircraft.
Respectfully, I don't think your assertion has any basis in fact.
 
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:31 pm

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 12):
Quoting StickShaker (Reply 5):
he 772LR is the only aircraft that can perform their stated intention of SYD-LHR
I still don't believe this is viable. Too many flights would have to make a stop due to weather. Their 'none-stop' advertising would become essentially a joke

Not if you add the extra AUX tanks, right now the 777-200LR can fly the necessary miles for the SYD-LHR route, it is the headwinds that hamper the aircraft to make it. So, add extra fuel, and the 777-200LR will make it just fine.
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:55 am

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 41):
Still, QF aren't the only airline preferring the 772LR/773ER to the A345/6. However, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see no 777s ordered and the bulk of this order made up by 787s to QF and A350s to JQ.

Thanks Dale for your reply. I was thinking one day (rare event) that oneworld carriers tend to have a reasonable level of Airbus products, with QF, BA and AA having the lowest levels.

Is there any big picture oneworld order for any one brand over another, told one stage that this was used before to get 737-800's at QF ?

Also if the new improved 772LR was ordered for QF, what would it be a 777-238ULR ? What does the extra tanks mean in terms of model designation ?

Given your comments above, do you think its more of a QF 767 replacement and Jetstar International order expansion than a QF mainline growth order ?

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 39):
Plus there were ex AN pilots around that could fly them and the labour rates were cheaper than for the 737's.

Scott, I don’t know exactly how many AN pilots are with JQ, from what I hear there are more ex-AN pilots with QF than JQ. JQ started flying A320s years after AN folded, most had found work elsewhere.

Also from what I have heard is that the industrial agreement dating back to Impulse days is that Impulse pilots have seniority over any "new hires" regardless of their rank when they joined JQ. Heard ex-AN A320 captains were hired on the understanding they will be demoted to FO after 24 months when the JQ 717 pilots get up to speed with the A320.
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:04 am

There has been no speculation on who might get the engines where there is a choice. Now I know this is only a 2-horse race but I will predict that it is GE's to lose. Of course if the -200LR is on the list this will give GE a significant edge. If QF plan to acquire based on "a power by the hour" deal then all bets are off. It hardly matters which brand of engine they have; it will be all to do with the package each company offers and the guarantees that go with it.
I wonder if the reported 3000 job loss among QF maintenance people portends this possibility. Also PBTH means payment from cash flow and not from capital or debt. I think it was Antares that pointed out that QF management were looking to pay for this whole program from cash flow, which means lease to the maximum and grind the vendors down price wise.
 
dalecary
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:45 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 44):
Also if the new improved 772LR was ordered for QF, what would it be a 777-238ULR ? What does the extra tanks mean in terms of model designation ?

Don't know. It could be 777-238ELR, 777-238LRX, or as you mentioned above.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 44):
Given your comments above, do you think its more of a QF 767 replacement and Jetstar International order expansion than a QF mainline growth order ?

I'm assuming you mean a 772LR order by QF??? I don't think it is more of a 763 replacement; as that is clearly going to be done by a 787/350 order. I don't think it will be for JQ International. Could be, but I suspect the 359 delineates JQ from QF and allows different pilot pay scales as per JQ 320 and QF 738.
I think any QF 772LR order will be for the company to gain an operational advantage on ULH routes over competitors, partly replace the 330 fleet(capacity-wise) and for international long-haul/ULH growth, in general. Will probably also pave the way for a 773ER order(now or later) to start replacing older 743/744s.
It is very clear the bulk of the QF/JQ order will be for the 787/350 families and any 777 order would appear to be quite small for the moment.
 
qantas747
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RE: QF To Make Decision On Dec 7

Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:52 pm

Hi guys,

firstly I think it is fantastic QF are investing in new products, either boeing or airbus, as long as it is clean comfortable and professional I am happy.

Just one question/comment regarding SYD-LHR

I understand that QF are looking at the 772ULr modified to their own specs, but just thinking outside the square here, I notice on the boeing website that the 787-8 has a range of 8500nm (16 000 odd km) . I am thinking maybe qF would be better off with a ULR aircraft of the smalle size to better service the proposed markets of SYD-LHR vv, SYD-DFW vv, SYD-JFK vv and other thinner long reange routes (to south america, africa?)

I think this would be much better to get a fleet of 787's possible with some mod's to make the huge ranges, but I would think it would enable the company to have alot of flexibility with just the one family flying the longer thinner legs.

Is there any need for an aircraft in the 777, A340 size bracket? It just seems to me that there is no need for aircraft that big.

Anyway, these are my unqualified opinions on the QF aircraft purchase, and any comments on the need for 300-400 pax aircraft or the use of ULR on 250 pax aircraft would be greatly appreciated.

Qantas747