dsa
Posts: 679
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:22 am

Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:58 pm

Hi

With the recent bird flu scares it has made me think about what affect it may have on aviation . . . If human to human transmission occurs no doubt no one will want to travel with the obvious social implications. Is this the point where airlines could collapse? Imagine been on a Long Haul flight say for 9 hours in a metal tube with someone that has the disease and is coughing and spluttering. Give me your thoughts . . .

Regards

DSA
Go Skybus!!!!
 
art
Posts: 2697
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:14 am

Quoting Dsa (Thread starter):
With the recent bird flu scares it has made me think about what affect it may have on aviation ...

It's going to have to mutate an awful lot before it can infect aircraft!
 
dsa
Posts: 679
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:22 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:27 am

Hi

Wow wait a minute a laugh almost came out of my mouth, I meant the business of aviation I thought it was clear. Sorry for flaming.

Regards

DSA
Go Skybus!!!!
 
User avatar
N328KF
Posts: 5810
Joined: Tue May 25, 2004 3:50 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:38 am

3% of the population will perish, and transportation and commerce will come to a standstill. This is not a doomsday scenario, it is fact. It happens about once or twice a century, and the last time was 1918.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
art
Posts: 2697
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:37 am

Quoting Dsa (Reply 2):
Sorry for flaming.

No need to apologise. Well deserved, I think.
 
VSlover
Posts: 1860
Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:36 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 8:31 am

well VS certainly doesnt want to take any chances:

Virgin Buys Tamiflu

Richard Branson, Chairman of Virgin Group Ltd. said today that his company is looking into machines and new technologies to put on aircrafts to kill germs in anticipation of a bird flu pandemic. He said his company has purchased 10,000 doses of the drug Tamiflu for his staff.

In response to questions about companies hording Tamiflu, Branson said, "We've bought [Tamiflu] because our staff is on the front line."

Branson also said that despite Virgin's best efforts to protect staff and passengers, if the flu starts spreading person to person, "it will most certainly affect the airline industry."


http://time.blogs.com/global_health/2005/11/richard_branson.html
 
Lumberton
Posts: 4176
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:34 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 8:35 am

If it's able to mutate and pass from person to person, then the SARS scare a few years back will seem like the good times. The reference to 1918 could well be true.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
Espion007
Posts: 1653
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 9:29 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 8:44 am

Honestly, the way media is handling avian flu, im starting to think its total horeshit. Then again there are some people on the planet who are so stupid I cant wait for little darwinism.
Snakes on a Plane!
 
AsstChiefMark
Posts: 10465
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2004 2:14 pm

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 8:47 am

The UN predicted 150 million worldwide deaths by the time it's done.  pessimist 

The WHO is predicting 7.5 million dead.  optimist 

Now back to our scheduled programming...

Mark
Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Damned MSP...Red tail...Red tail
 
gift4tbone
Posts: 570
Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2004 9:25 pm

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 8:49 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 3):
3% of the population will perish, and transportation and commerce will come to a standstill.

I think as soon as it is found to spread person to person in whatever country. All travel into/and out of that country will cease. It will be quarantined. Not that it couldn't make its way out before then. But thats my guess.

Hey if it lasts a while, maybe the US carriers will begin upgrading domestic flights, like ORD-PVD(767?) i could hope. Big grin

-Tony@PVD
Top 3 airports: PVD 23.9%(138 flights), PHL 14.7%(85 flights), PHX 10.2%(59 flights)
 
TBCITDG
Posts: 851
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2004 5:17 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 8:50 am

Still though, I am sure any time soon we will see Geoff Dixon, blaming the "bird flu EPIDEMIC" on fuel hikes, unfair competition and another reason why SQ should not enter the Pacific market! Big grin
 
Espion007
Posts: 1653
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 9:29 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 8:58 am

Quoting TBCITDG (Reply 10):
Still though, I am sure any time soon we will see Geoff Dixon, blaming the "bird flu EPIDEMIC" on fuel hikes, unfair competition and another reason why SQ should not enter the Pacific market!

Dont forget george bush! Big grin
Snakes on a Plane!
 
vv701
Posts: 5805
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 9:22 am

It seems to me that the authorities - governments and international organisations - are being (correctly) more cautious than the threat requires.

All true flu viruses originate in birds and the pandemic of 1919 was extraordinarily appalling but not the last we suffered. In 1958 we experienced a much less severe pandemic in the UK and Europe.

A mutation of the current virus is required before it can be transmitted from human to human. Since that mutation has not and hopefully will not occur, it is impossible to predict the effect it will have on humans. It could be a worse case scenario as in 1919 but, hopefully, advances in viral medicine would reduce its impact. It could be like 1958 - soon forgotten because it had relatively low real impact.

However if a mutation happens and the mutated virus can be passed from one human to another, it is my view that the impact on commercial aviation to and from the quartile of the world where the mutation occurs will be totally devastating. What potential passengers will wait to see if the mutated virus causes a single death before he or she cancels his or her trip?

I am not an MD and if any of my statements above are the slightest bit wrong I hope someone will correct me.
 
AAgent
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2001 11:41 pm

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 9:31 am

Many airlines could indeed completely collapse. It doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to envision what may happen if a pandemic strain of the H5N1 virus were to develop, not only would a huge number of travelers stay at home, but I suspect a huge number of airline employees would do the same. After all, who would want to be responsible for bringing home a virus that would likely kill both yourself and your family members? Indeed, a pandemic flu virus would definitely kill more than just people. I suspect it would kill many airlines as well.

Here's to hoping the virus is a total dud!

Best Regards,
AAgent

(Edited for grammar.)

[Edited 2005-11-03 01:47:39]
War Eagle!
 
AsstChiefMark
Posts: 10465
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2004 2:14 pm

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 9:34 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
Since that mutation has not and hopefully will not occur

The regular flu season hasn't hit yet. Transmutation acceleration will start once enough people with the "normal" flu come in contact with birds with the bird flu. It'll snowball from there.

The smart thing is to keep sick people away from birds. That will prevent or at least minimize the snowball effect.

Mark
Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Damned MSP...Red tail...Red tail
 
jetdeltamsy
Posts: 2688
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2000 11:51 am

RE: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) And Aviation!

Thu Nov 03, 2005 9:52 am

Quoting Dsa (Thread starter):
Is this the point where airlines could collapse?

You bet it is. Should this develop into a worst case scenario, many airlines would either shut down temporarily or go out of business.

When the SARS situation was at its peak, Cathay Pacific was flying at 5 to 10% load factors. They reduced capacity dramatically and discontinued service to several cities. Fortunately for CX, the company has very deep pockets and was able survive.

An avian flu epidemic like is being talked about would be disasterous to the world economy in general, not just for the airlines.
Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos