sq212
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Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:52 pm

Summary of what Randy Baseler said at a Paris press conference:
- confident of year end launch
- will have 6% fewer cost on a seat-to-mile basis, and 13% fewer fuel cost than the older 747 model
- it will have more than one order for the model
- bulk of early order will be freighters rather than passenger capacity
- expects order be divided 50-50 between freight plane and passenger planes over the long term

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...E21-B550-447E-B0F9-EA1AE950E0B6%7D

Cheers
 
Thorben
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:31 pm

450 would be a good size to fill the gap between the A346 and the A388. Definitely a market there for it.

Cost and fuel burn advantages don't seem too big.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
Danny
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:39 pm

Only 6% cost advantage over old 747? I guess this is why they already predict poor sale of passenger version.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:45 pm

6% is too low! No wonder the airlines are not exactly beating down the door of Boeing lining up to order it. If it were 10% or better, it would be a very serious competitor and threat to the A-380 program, but at this point I highly doubt it will have much impact.
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fraport
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:57 pm

In the beginning they said the Freighter will sell better than the Pax version, later they stated the airlines have a stronger interest in the Pax type, and now it's the Freighter again. That raises the question how serious can you take these predictions?
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:00 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 3):
6% is too low! No wonder the airlines are not exactly beating down the door of Boeing lining up to order it. If it were 10% or better, it would be a very serious competitor and threat to the A-380 program, but at this point I highly doubt it will have much impact.

The CASM advantage over the B747-400 is not the important question. After all, no one will be retiring B747-400s early to buy the B747Adv. The important question is what is the CASM advantage over the WhaleJet, if any.
 
na
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:09 pm

"- will have 6% fewer cost on a seat-to-mile basis, and 13% fewer fuel cost than the older 747 model".
I´m not a mathematician, but how can that be? If it burns 13% less fuel and has more seats than the 744 at the same time, mustn´t the savings per seat not logically be higher than 13%?

"- bulk of early order will be freighters rather than passenger capacity"
Sounds like a minimum of one or two freighter operators exluding Cargolux (who are set) plus one or two pax airlines will kick off the production.

"- it will have more than one order for the model"
Don´t know what he´s trying to say here. Does he mean there are probably just two launch Customers? Cargolux with ca. 10 freighters and one airline with less than 10 pax jets?
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:15 pm

Quoting NA (Reply 6):
"- will have 6% fewer cost on a seat-to-mile basis, and 13% fewer fuel cost than the older 747 model".
I�m not a mathematician, but how can that be? If it burns 13% less fuel and has more seats than the 744 at the same time, mustn�t the savings per seat not logically be higher than 13%?

Easy. Fuel costs are just a fraction of total operating costs. Landing fees will not go down. MX will not go down (at least not signficantly). Labor costs will not go down. Etc.

Quoting NA (Reply 6):
"- bulk of early order will be freighters rather than passenger capacity"
Sounds like a minimum of one or two freighter operators exluding Cargolux (who are set) plus one or two pax airlines will kick off the production.

"- it will have more than one order for the model"
Don�t know what he�s trying to say here. Does he mean there are probably just two launch Customers? Cargolux with ca. 10 freighters and one airline with less than 10 pax jets?

Boeing have been saying for a long time that the B747Adv would launch when there were two customers. Cargolux are one. One more (passenger or cargo) are needed. If Boeing are very close to signing two or three, they might wait a few weeks on the formal launch so that they can launch with three or four customers rather than with two.
 
F4N
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:16 pm

';ldsa

Quoting Fraport (Reply 4):
n the beginning they said the Freighter will sell better than the Pax version, later they stated the airlines have a stronger interest in the Pax type, and now it's the Freighter again. That raises the question how serious can you take these predictions?

Fraport:

I do not remember Boeing ever suggesting that the pax version would ever be of primary interest to customers. IIRC, the emphasis has always been towards the F version with the potential for pax sales to current 747 operators which do not want/need A380 type capacity.

I certainly believe Boeing intends to use the 747A as an interim model until such time as the market potential for an A380 competitor becomes clearer. Until that happens, they will probably be content to sell whatever version carriers want. I'm sure that their baseline for sales is not real high.

regards,

F4N
 
na
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:55 pm

"I certainly believe Boeing intends to use the 747A as an interim model until such time as the market potential for an A380 competitor becomes clearer. Until that happens, they will probably be content to sell whatever version carriers want. I'm sure that their baseline for sales is not real high."

Certainly right to some extent. Boeing did the same when they brought out the 777 a few years after the A330/340.

Though I doubt there will ever a direct A380 competitor from Boeing. What Boeing will build eventually under their 3 aircraft family plan (certainly not before 2015) is something with a far larger market. As the 787-10 will virtually kill the 777-200 the 747 successor will replace the 773, 747 and will be able to be stretched to an even bigger aircraft, though smaller than the A380. Everything else would mean Boeing has to change their long-term plan and build a 4th type of aircraft.
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:06 pm

Quoting NA (Reply 9):
Though I doubt there will ever a direct A380 competitor from Boeing. What Boeing will build eventually under their 3 aircraft family plan (certainly not before 2015) is something with a far larger market. As the 787-10 will virtually kill the 777-200 the 747 successor will replace the 773, 747 and will be able to be stretched to an even bigger aircraft, though smaller than the A380. Everything else would mean Boeing has to change their long-term plan and build a 4th type of aircraft.

The fuselage diameter of Y3 will depend on whether or not Boeing produce a B787-11 (A340-600 length) variant. If there will be a B787-11, then Y3 will have a relatively larger fuselage diameter (perhaps 290-300 inches) and the longest version will probably compete directly with the A380-800. If the largest B787 is the B787-10, then Y3 will have a relatively smaller fuselage diameter (perhaps about 270 inches) and will remain smaller than the WhaleJet.
 
PHXinterrupted
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:34 pm

Quoting Fraport (Reply 4):
In the beginning they said the Freighter will sell better than the Pax version, later they stated the airlines have a stronger interest in the Pax type, and now it's the Freighter again. That raises the question how serious can you take these predictions?

No less serious than some of the stuff that comes out of the mouth of John Leahy.
Keepin' it real.
 
Glom
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:30 am

The A380 is supposed to have a 15% lower fuel burn per seat than the 744 and from wbpg's charts a while back, the 747ADV was supposed to beat that. 13% is a bit of a reduction.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:07 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
Boeing have been saying for a long time that the B747Adv would launch when there were two customers. Cargolux are one. One more (passenger or cargo) are needed. If Boeing are very close to signing two or three, they might wait a few weeks on the formal launch so that they can launch with three or four customers rather than with two.

I agree that Cargolux is, most likely one of the launch customers, at least for the B-747-ADV-F. Perhaps an airline like NZ could launch the pax version? AI might also be on the list as a potential, converting some of their B-777-300ERs to B-747-ADVs? What about AC? They need new wide bodies.

UPS could convert some of their B-747-400Fs (they ordered 10, IIRC) to the B-747-ADV-F, couldn't they?

I believe that eventually BA will buy some B-747-ADVs when they start replacing the B-747-400s (maybe around 2011-2012?). About the same time, they will replace their B-767-300ERs with B-787-800s. So, BA could place a big order with Boeing around 2009, or so.

NW and UA will also eventually order the B-747-ADV.
 
Wiggidy
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:11 pm

Quoting Glom (Reply 12):
The A380 is supposed to have a 15% lower fuel burn per seat than the 744 and from wbpg's charts a while back, the 747ADV was supposed to beat that. 13% is a bit of a reduction.

Spot on there, no doubt about it. Makes sense that Boeing can only get one interested company, and why it has taken such an incredible ammount of time for them to actually say "go". I remember many people thought it would launch at paris... more than 4 months ago and many months of speculation before that. Id love to see it flying, but I beleive we will only see it in Boeing loyal airline liveries
-Wes
 
SNATH
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:16 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
What about AC? They need new wide bodies.

I very much doubt it. Milton wants to simplify their widebody fleet with twins (B787/B777). I don't think adding a few quads will be attractive to him. Also notice that AC has not flown anything as big as a B747 for many years (the last few B747s they flew, before they retired them, were combis). Of course, never say never, but I highly doubt it.

Tony
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:40 pm

Quoting Wiggidy (Reply 14):
Quoting Glom (Reply 12):
The A380 is supposed to have a 15% lower fuel burn per seat than the 744 and from wbpg's charts a while back, the 747ADV was supposed to beat that. 13% is a bit of a reduction.

Wasn't that based on something like a 650+ seat configuration, for the A-380, and only a 400 seat B-747-400? But, as I understand it, most of the airlines that have ordered the A-380s have decided to configur then in the 500-550 seat configueration. So, those A-380s will actually burn a lot more fuel, per seat mile, than the current version of the B-747.

Quoting Wiggidy (Reply 14):
Spot on there, no doubt about it. Makes sense that Boeing can only get one interested company, and why it has taken such an incredible ammount of time for them to actually say "go". I remember many people thought it would launch at paris... more than 4 months ago and many months of speculation before that. Id love to see it flying, but I beleive we will only see it in Boeing loyal airline liveries
-Wes

Well, it depends on what Boeing is comparing the B-747-ADV too, doesn't it? If Boeing is saying the B-747-ADV will burn 13% less fuel, with 450 seats, than the B-747-400, with 416 seats, that is significant. I suspect (and I'm only guessing here) that the engineering work needed to put the GEnx engines on the B-747-ADV is taking longer than Boeing wanted. But, then again, this COULD have been Boeing's time table anyway.
 
JetMaster
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:48 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
Wasn't that based on something like a 650+ seat configuration, for the A-380, and only a 400 seat B-747-400?

Based on which source?

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
But, as I understand it, most of the airlines that have ordered the A-380s have decided to configur then in the 500-550 seat configueration.

Airbus sells it a as 555 seater, so what do you expect?

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
So, those A-380s will actually burn a lot more fuel, per seat mile, than the current version of the B-747.

A B777 also burns a lot more fuel than a B737...  Yeah sure



Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
United Airline
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:00 pm

Not sure if the B 777-200/200ER will be replaced by the B 787-10 eventually since the B 787-10 is smaller with a lower capacity.

Hope the B 747 Advanced will do very well and outsell the B 747-400. And hope it will be launched soon.
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:48 pm

Not sure if the B 777-200/200ER will be replaced by the B 787-10 eventually since the B 787-10 is smaller with a lower capacity.
I'm not sure what you mean by "smaller with a lower capacity." According to the data provided by Widebodyphotog, the B787-10 would have a greater cabin floor area and hold more pallets and LD3s than the B777-200ER. Max payload of the B787-10 would be slightly lower, but max payload with max fuel would be considerably higher. RE: First 787-10X Image (by Widebodyphotog Oct 17 2005 in Civil Aviation)
http://theaviationspecialist.com/300seat_comparo_table.gif
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:39 pm

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 17):
Airbus sells it a as 555 seater, so what do you expect?

They also advertise it as an 800 seater.

http://www.airbus.com/en/aircraftfamilies/a380/a380/performance.html

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 17):
A B777 also burns a lot more fuel than a B737...

Exactly, and the B-747-ADV will actually burn less fuel than the A-380 does, in an airplane to airplane comparison.
 
JetMaster
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 5:56 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 20):

They also advertise it as an 800 seater.

Just because it can seat 800 pax in a one-class configuration it doesn't mean they actively advertise that option to the airlines. If you read through their website you will find out that they usually refer to the A380 as a 555-seater.

http://www.airbus.com/en/myairbus/

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 20):
Exactly, and the B-747-ADV will actually burn less fuel than the A-380 does, in an airplane to airplane comparison.

Which is about as helpful as a B737 to B777 comparison...


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
sq212
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:12 pm

I would like to think that operators who only need to fill not more than 450 passengers will likely go for 747ADV. Unless A380 can prove that carrying less than 450 passengers is more economical to operate and maintain than the 747ADV.

Cheers

[Edited 2005-10-22 12:15:55]
 
JetMaster
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:25 pm

Quoting Sq212 (Reply 22):
I would like to think that operators who only need to fill not more than 450 passengers will likely go for 747ADV.

The B747ADV won't seat 450 pax in a comfortable three-class layout...400-415 maybe.

Quoting Sq212 (Reply 22):
Unless A380 can proved that carrying less than 450 passengers is more economical to operate and maintain than the 747ADV.

That depends on the specific layout and the number of different configurations in a sub-fleet. If a majority of A380s in a fleet operates with some 475-500 seats then it may make more sense to have a few A380 with 450 or less rather than a totally different type. One cannot draw a general conclusion here.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
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zeke
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:31 pm

Quoting Sq212 (Reply 22):
I would like to think that operators who only need to fill not more than 450 passengers will likely go for 747ADV. Unless A380 can prove that carrying less than 450 passengers is more economical to operate and maintain than the 747ADV.

I agree, the 773/773ER is too small for some operators, and A380 too big.

Could see KL, CX, BA, QF, ordering them to replace older 744s to provide a 350-400 seat 3 class aircraft on their routes.

Hope to see the new improved Queen of the skies flying again.
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United Airline
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:48 pm

The B 777-200/200ER is still very new and I doubt it will be replaced anytime soon. In fact it doesn't have to be replaced anytime soon.

And I still have some doubts whether the B 787-10 will replace the B 777-200/200ER.

Potential B 747 Advanced customers: LH, BA, KLM, VS, SA, UA, NW, NZ, QF, JL, KE, CI, CA, CX, SQ, TG, MH, AI etc.

AF, ANA, AC......... maybe.
 
NAV20
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 7:59 pm

Apparently both Qantas and Singapore Airlines have reduced their planned seat totals on their A380s to only 474 now:-

"....Qantas has reduced the number of seats in the airline's three-class double-decker A380s from 501 to 474. The move brings the Qantas passenger count into line with Singapore Airlines."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au.../0,5744,16950166%255E23349,00.html
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
JetMaster
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:14 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):
Apparently both Qantas and Singapore Airlines have reduced their planned seat totals on their A380s to only 474 now:-

Not a big surprise considering QF and SQ will fight hard for F and C class dominance on the lucrative SYD-LHR route.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
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PM
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:25 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 25):
The B 777-200/200ER is still very new and I doubt it will be replaced anytime soon. In fact it doesn't have to be replaced anytime soon.

The 2ER is rolling along but Boeing haven't sold a -200 in almost four years and have sold just three new builds (the Cathay plane was the development aircraft) since 1998! I'd say the -200 is past it and therefore, if that market is important to Boeing, it does need to be replaced. (Is there a market? Well, the 777-200's closest competitor is the A330-300 and it's still selling quite well so I'd say there is.)
 
PhilSquares
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:41 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):
Apparently both Qantas and Singapore Airlines have reduced their planned seat totals on their A380s to only 474 now:-

SQ never planned for anything else. It's Qantas that has reduced their seating on the 380.
Fly fast, live slow
 
N503JB
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 8:59 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
Boeing have been saying for a long time that the B747Adv would launch when there were two customers. Cargolux are one. One more (passenger or cargo) are needed. If Boeing are very close to signing two or three, they might wait a few weeks on the formal launch so that they can launch with three or four customers rather than with two.

Cathay, ANA and JAL will be B747ADV customer.

Regards
N503JB
HKIA Ramp Spotters
 
sq212
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 9:25 pm

Quoting N503JB (Reply 30):
Cathay, ANA and JAL will be B747ADV customer.

CV, CI, JL and SQ were consistently mentioned by ATWonline as one closely identified with the 747ADV program. MH, NH and BA are prospects too.

I bet my money on CI as next buyer of 747ADV for freight and JL or CX for passenger version.

Cheers.

[Edited 2005-10-22 14:32:46]

[Edited 2005-10-22 14:42:50]
 
hrhf1
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 9:32 pm

What about a Combi variant? Couldn't that be of interest to some airlines?
 
trex8
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:04 pm

Quoting Sq212 (Reply 31):
I bet my money on CI as next buyer of 747ADV for freight and JL or CX for passenger version.

I'll bet any CI order is for passenger ones first. They have already replaced their 744s from the early 90s. The other Pratt powered 744s were delivered from 95 on, these would be the logical next group to be replaced. Their freighters date from 99 on and most in the last 3 years only, they have a way to go still even if CI replace them at 10-15 yrs age.
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:17 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 25):

And I still have some doubts whether the B 787-10 will replace the B 777-200/200ER.

Why? The B787-10 will outperform the B777-200ER in every meaningful way (except max payload on short routes) and at much lower cost.

Quoting Hrhf1 (Reply 32):
What about a Combi variant?

The FAA has made it clear that they will not certify any more combis. The other certifying agencies are expect to follow the FAA's lead on this.
 
sq212
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:08 pm

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 33):
They have already replaced their 744s from the early 90s. The other Pratt powered 744s were delivered from 95 on, these would be the logical next group to be replaced

I believed the first PW powered 744F was delivered sometime in Feb or Mar of 1990s. By 2010, it will be 20 years old. I think CI will move to replace those prior to 1995 deliveries just like they replace MD11 with 744Fs. If I remember correctly, CI wants to maintain a young fleet. Currently their average age of their aircrafts is less than 6 years old. Considering their 744 passenger version of their aircraft is younger than their freight, hence my thinking that freight will be picked first. Who knows, perhaps you're right for choosing passenger ones first. We should probably know it by December.

Cheers
 
ha763
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:48 am

Quoting N503JB (Reply 30):
Cathay, ANA and JAL will be B747ADV customer.

I don't see ANA being a 747ADV customer anytime soon, if ever. They are reducing their international 744 fleet and replacing them with 773ERs that seat less.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 34):
The FAA has made it clear that they will not certify any more combis.

Incorrect. The new regs require that a combi have a solid, unmoveable bulkhead inbetween the pax and cargo. This means that a new combi will have a set configuration, no more moving the bulkhead to meet pax and cargo demand, making it less economical to operate. An example of a "new" combi meeting the new regs are the AS 734s that are being converted. They will have a set configuration of 70 pax and 4 pallets. As far as I know, no 734 combis were certified previously, so this will be a "new" combi.
 
trex8
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 11:40 am

Quoting Sq212 (Reply 35):
I believed the first PW powered 744F was delivered sometime in Feb or Mar of 1990s.

CI has never had a Pratt powered 744F, all their 744Fs are GE powered and 1st delivered in 2000. They did have one of the last 742Fs (PW), that went to KA last year and was delivered to CI in 89.
They ordered 2 batchs of PW 744s, the first batch of 5 had deliveries in the early 90s, all those have been replaced by the 4 recent GE powered 744s with the Signature interiors (and the 5th was the infamous one which went into HK harbor soon after delivery!). The 2nd batch of 9 started delivery in 95 (actually that first one went originally to subsidiary AE for TPE-YVR flights till CI could operate that itself several years ago). The last was delivered in 99. Given they want a young fleet, the early ones from the 2nd batch are due for replacement in the next few years which would be perfect timing for the 747Adv.

I have a very special relationship with the first 747 CI operated, a -132 ex DL, my head made a visible impression on the ceiling somewhere between TYO and HNL in the 70s in turbulence! My Dad said I was never the same again! That started my special interest in CI!
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 11:51 am

Quoting Ha763 (Reply 36):
Incorrect. The new regs require that a combi have a solid, unmoveable bulkhead inbetween the pax and cargo. This means that a new combi will have a set configuration, no more moving the bulkhead to meet pax and cargo demand, making it less economical to operate. An example of a "new" combi meeting the new regs are the AS 734s that are being converted. They will have a set configuration of 70 pax and 4 pallets. As far as I know, no 734 combis were certified previously, so this will be a "new" combi.

We were discussing B747s, not B737s. Everything I hear is that the bulkhead the FAA would require is too heavy, as well as too inflexible, to be of economic interest and that none are expected to be built. If none are built, then the FAA will not be certifying any more.
 
sq212
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:07 pm

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 37):

Thanks for the correction pal. mistyped PW 742F as PW 744F. I thought the PW742F are still in operation as CI colors without knowing that it went to other carriers earlier.

Regards
 
MarshalN
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:32 pm

Quoting N503JB (Reply 30):
Cathay, ANA and JAL will be B747ADV customer.

JAL I agree, but CX? I don't think they're necessarily predisposed to one or the other. I think they're in the wait and see mode for the A380 and see how it performs before making any sort of decision. If the plane can fly as advertised I'd expect them to pick up a few
 
trex8
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 1:24 pm

I suspect CX may have a hang up about the GE engines on the 747Adv besides any other reasons they may have against it!
Thinking about it, the last GE engines CX used were probably on their CV880s. Now there's a real "jet"- loud and smoky!
 
ha763
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:57 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 38):
We were discussing B747s, not B737s. Everything I hear is that the bulkhead the FAA would require is too heavy, as well as too inflexible, to be of economic interest and that none are expected to be built. If none are built, then the FAA will not be certifying any more.

You said that the FAA will not certify any more combis, not just 747 combis, which is still incorrect. Just because one isn't built doesn't mean the FAA or other countries' regulatory agencies will not certify one. The regulations are there and any new combi that meets them will be certified.
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:58 pm

Quoting Ha763 (Reply 42):
Just because one isn't built doesn't mean the FAA or other countries' regulatory agencies will not certify one.

Of course it does. I didn't write "would not" but just "will not." Were someone build one to the new standards, the FAA would certify it. If, as widely expected, no one will build one, then the FAA will not certify one. There would be nothing to certify.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:11 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 43):
Quoting Ha763 (Reply 42):
Just because one isn't built doesn't mean the FAA or other countries' regulatory agencies will not certify one.

Of course it does. I didn't write "would not" but just "will not." Were someone build one to the new standards, the FAA would certify it. If, as widely expected, no one will build one, then the FAA will not certify one. There would be nothing to certify.

You are correct, Zvezda. The international agreements between the US, EU, and other countries excepts a standard set of aircraft certification procedures. In other words, if the FAA certificates an airplane, it is also certified by the JAA. The same process is going on right now with the A-380 flight test program. The FAA is not actually flying on the whale, they accept what the JAA inspectors have. But, the FAA can request additional information or repeat testing, to clearify something. IIRC, the JAA did that with the MD-11 when it was in flight testing, it was something about the aft cargo door, IIRC.
 
lehpron
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RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:21 pm

Quoting Sq212 (Thread starter):
Summary of what Randy Baseler said at a Paris press conference:
- confident of year end launch
- will have 6% fewer cost on a seat-to-mile basis, and 13% fewer fuel cost than the older 747 model
- it will have more than one order for the model
- bulk of early order will be freighters rather than passenger capacity
- expects order be divided 50-50 between freight plane and passenger planes over the long term

Why are they making this plane again? If the bulk of early orders will be freighters rather than passenger capacity, then this is not a niche aircraft w.r.t. A380's capabilities. Not that is it pointless now and forever, time does vary and so does market environment. What was the original reason for the idea of the plane as a concept? I came to understand that Boeing was not willing to let A380 own the VLA market in which they are attempting to sway carriers to a fuel-efficient 747 with 787 technologies. All the while, insisting that they do not share the same belief as Airbus regarding aircraft like A380 for pax. I am certain that 20 years down the line this insistency cannot possibly apply.

Let us consider any situation where someone did not believe in something. Then there is no reason for them to pursue what they did not believe. I do not think Boeing believes further derivatives of the 747 will have further use as passenger transports, hence their forecasts for planes of that size. They are still incredibly and understandably skeptical of A380's future.

However, this disbelief drives a number of things:
  • It prevents carriers from being interested in a product (literally forcing them to focus on others)

  • It prevents Boeing from doubting themselves (in terms of future reinvestigation for potential uses)

  • It restricts the market by controlling what products are available for use simply because those products are convenient for the company to produce.


  • Grim yes but that is one form of business. It seems that Boeing's response to carriers that need more pax capacity is, "Get some 787's for direct routing (for pax benefit). We are not making a bigger plane to fill your needs, as it is not worth our time and effort. We don’t think anyone else needs it...why not have a 747Adv? It saves fuel and should calm you down, that was the real reason you wanted a bigger plane right?"

      

    Now, consider any situation where someone had a patriotic belief in something. Then they will always pursue what they believe in, i.e. being confident about an idea. IMO, Boeing believes 787 is the key to improving international access and fuel savings over the life of their product: Hence their forecasts. The plane hits the spot (according to BCMO 2005), there is literally nothing wrong with it. Unfortunately, Boeing turns that confidence into arrogance rather quickly when comparing their 787 with Airbus' A380 concerning the future of air travel.

    This belief drives a number of things as well:
  • It can give the customer the idea that your project will work (If you're well known and invest heavily in an idea, some people will take notice and even others will show interest)

  • It also prevents you as a company from doubting yourself in the short term. (I worry about overconfidence in terms underestimating delays, for one)

  • It also restricts the market by controlling what products are available as those products are convenient for the company to produce. (People will have the mindset of how things should be, i.e. 'do what works')


  • Heck, we will end up making more cliché aircraft until we find something else to 'do what works' over again. 'Do what works' makes people ignorant, cynical and over-expectant (specific) about new things. [Being critical is good but being cynical is pessimistic and unhealthy, IMO   ]

    Quoting Thorben (Reply 1):
    450 would be a good size to fill the gap between the A346 and the A388. Definitely a market there for it.

    Markets are driven by belief; those that represent Boeing believe launching this derivative is worth at least two orders! The launching of A380 created that gap based on the belief that there is potential out there based on annual passenger trends along certain routes. Both Boeing and Airbus have created the belief in carriers and pax alike that there can be more than 744. The sheer number of units is difficult to determine, however

    [Edited 2005-10-23 12:29:49]
    The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
     
    sq212
    Posts: 263
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    RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

    Sun Oct 23, 2005 11:13 pm

    Quoting Lehpron (Reply 45):

    Different operators has different reasons and needs. Many needs aircraft right sizing, some believed in hub set up, other requires more seats, and use less frequencies for travel to restricted airports. The reverse is true for more frequencies, less seat count and point to point travel.

    Manufacturers can only influence their products only if there are no alternatives or competition. The prime focus and cost associated with the development of A380 and B787 pretty much summed up with what they believed in future direction of air travel. While A350 and B747ADV is to address competition and customer retention. My thoughts only.

    Cheers
     
    art
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    RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

    Mon Oct 24, 2005 12:30 am

    Quoting Sq212 (Reply 46):
    The prime focus and cost associated with the development of A380 and B787 pretty much summed up with what they believed in future direction of air travel. While A350 and B747ADV is to address competition and customer retention.

    While I agree with your comments, I think there is more concerning the A350 and B747ADV: should the p2p and h2h predictions of A and B not pan out, both have products to mitigate the results of their misjudgement.
     
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    zeke
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    RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

    Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:12 am

    Quoting Art (Reply 47):
    While I agree with your comments, I think there is more concerning the A350 and B747ADV: should the p2p and h2h predictions of A and B not pan out, both have products to mitigate the results of their misjudgement.

    My 2c, H2H is here to stay with modest growth, P2P will expand with increased growth, some will fail P2P as the actual demand is unknown.
    We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
     
    ikramerica
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    RE: Boeing 747ADV Launch Update

    Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:56 am

    B feels the pax market for 450+ sized aircraft is saturated right now, especially with the A380, but has always said that the 20 year forecast is backloaded. It's no surprise that the 747A would not sell so many pax versions right away with many operators who are in need of large planes already taking the A380. But the 744 starts becoming "20 years old" in a few years, and then those planes really start getting "passed down the line" from tier 1 to tier 2 to tier 3 and F operators at a greater pace. Those tier 1 and 2 airlines will need a replacement, and not all will want the A380 when they can have a "common" aircraft in the 747A. Thus for 2005 and 2006, you may not see many pax orders. But come 2007+, when airlines start ordering for 2010 and beyond, you should see demand pick up. This is similar reasoning to why there are few new A380 orders expected through next year. Airlines who wanted to get in on the ground floor have, and the deliveries are sold out through 2010 anyway.

    It looks as if many airlines that are A380/744 customers and will order more in the future are preoccupied with 787/773ER/772LR/350/330/345/356 at the moment...
    Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.

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