n1786b
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Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:54 pm

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...pace/2002588498_boeingsales28.html

Highlights:

- Boeing's proposal to Qantas includes:
- 45 787s
- 20 747ADVs
- 20 777-300ERs
- 5 777-200LRs

- Boeing's proposal to SIA:
- 10 777-200LRs
- 20 787s
- 13 747ADVs and ADVFs
- 20-30 "standard 777s"

Other Orders:

- likely to be firmed up by Dec. 31:
- 20 for Air India
- 14 for Air Canada
- 36 for several Chinese airlines (first time I've heard about this)

- Unannounced 787 prospects:
- Turkish Airlines 20 (first time I've heard about this)
- Aeroflot 15 (decision announced for Nov. 3rd)
- GECAS 15 (first time I've heard about this)
- RBS Aviation 10 (first time I've heard about this)

- 777 proposals on the table:
- 50 777-200ERs to Emirates (against the A359 here and no mention of the 787-10X)
- up to 26 to Cathay Pacific

Another interesting note is that AB is selling the A350 for $85 million, just over half the list price.

- N1786B
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:10 pm

Quite impressive, but considering they have launched a new plane in the most popular medium size long haul category, a strong performance was expected.
They are now filling their order book for the next few years at once: Boeing expected some of these orders already last year (200+ 787s by year's end, remember?) but they fall through only now and combine them with orders of this year, as well as maybe some of next year already...

Anybody care to discuss some of the planes on the list??
I mean: the 747-400ADV to SIA for instance, that alone could make a good discussion....
 
Aviation
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:20 pm

Yay!

Go Boeing!
Good to see the old girl going strong!

Cheers,
Signed, Aaron Nicoli - Trans World Airlines Collector
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:40 pm

50 B777-200ERs to EK is dubious. They are more likely to twist Boeing's arm into selling them the B787-10.

Also, I don't see either QF or SQ orders being firm before the end of the year, just announced intentions. They will count as 2006 orders.
 
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keesje
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:54 pm



Boeing thinks Airbus could sell 400 aircraft in the next 2 months.

Lets not ignore the period in which the aircraft will be delivered. Having too many orders for delivery years down the road won't help cash flow / credibility of the order portfolio in the next 5 years.

Also sales margins/discounts & aircraft sizes (TO) are important IMO.

Anyone the value of the backlogs of Airbus & Boeing compared to just the number of airframes? (equalizing A380s with B737s isn't everything..)
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
n1786b
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:09 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Boeing thinks Airbus could sell 400 aircraft in the next 2 months.

Not clear if that accounts for the orders listed here that Boeing might lose. They are already touting 200 - 210 A350s and they've got 43 Indian A320s yet to be officially booked plus handfulls of smaller orders too - Aeroflot comes to mind.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Also sales margins/discounts & aircraft sizes (TO) are important IMO.

Yep, you failed to mention the internal Boeing document saying AB is selling the A350 for $85m. No wonder they need launch aid to keep from "destroying profitability" (their words - not mine!!)  duck 

- N1786B
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:11 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Boeing thinks Airbus could sell 400 aircraft in the next 2 months.

From the related article on this thread...

Quote
According to the Boeing insider, as of the beginning of this month Boeing's forecast for Airbus showed solid prospects of 705 orders and 178 more possible — giving a potential year-end order total of 883.

To get there, Airbus may aggressively compete on price.

Unquote

Cheers
 
Lumberton
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:22 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Lets not ignore the period in which the aircraft will be delivered. Having too many orders for delivery years down the road won't help cash flow / credibility of the order portfolio in the next 5 years.

It's early and I'm not thinking too clearly. Could you please elaborate on that? Thanks.

(OT, how do you guys cut and paste these charts into your posts. I can't get it to work. If I want to paste a photo from an article, all I get is the link to the entire article).
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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keesje
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:26 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 6):
To get there, Airbus may aggressively compete on price.

What do we think the much heralded "aggressive" sales campaign & consequent sales by Boeing of the last 10 months comes down to?

From the EADS site:

..the Boeing 787. This latter has become the world’s most subsidised airliner ever. Boeing has amassed more than US$ 5 billion in government subsidies to pay for its development and production, through US and foreign government R&D funds, tax relief schemes and launch aid. New subsidies are being added every day. But for these subsidies, Boeing could not have launched the 787, which is currently being dumped on the market at unprecedented low prices.


 laughing  I was surprised to read this .. EADS PR apparently was real pissed when they released this  laughing 

Anyway we are in for an exiting two months, SQ, Qantas and CX among the ones out for a big order.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JetMaster
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:41 pm

Interesting article...but:

In the contest of the twin-engine 777s against the four-engine and therefore gas-guzzling A340s, the high price of fuel might tilt the balance Boeing's way.

"Gas-guzzling" is clearly a ridiculous term. The A346 is definitely less fuel efficient than its rival, but it doesn't mean it wastes fuel as a true "guzzler".


An internal Boeing document includes a report from the sales field that Airbus in June was offering the A350 at only $85 million, just over half the list price.

Hm, an internal Boeing document...

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
Another interesting note is that AB is selling the A350 for $85 million, just over half the list price.

IS selling? That's a Boeing claim, so we should be careful in drawing fast conclusions.

Quoting N1786b (Reply 4):
No wonder they need launch aid to keep from "destroying profitability" (their words - not mine!!)

You speak as if you knew for sure...


Regards,
JM

[Edited 2005-10-28 12:43:07]
The Journey is my Destination
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:43 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
From the EADS site:

..the Boeing 787. This latter has become the world’s most subsidized airliner ever. Boeing has amassed more than US$ 5 billion in government subsidies to pay for its development and production, through US and foreign government R&D funds, tax relief schemes and launch aid. New subsidies are being added every day. But for these subsidies, Boeing could not have launched the 787, which is currently being dumped on the market at unprecedented low prices.


I was surprised to read this .. EADS PR apparently was real pissed when they released this

Anyway we are in for an exiting two months, SQ, Qantas and CX among the ones out for a big order.

I guess the old saying "if you can't beat them, join them" fits nicely here. If you can't do anything about your competitors advantage via funding and taxes, do your best to join the party.......

After all, Leahy did say all he would need to do is drop the price on his A330 because there wasn't any development cost to recoup  Smile

Cheers

[Edited 2005-10-28 12:56:34]
 
Glom
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:44 pm

15 772LRs eh? So, combined with AI, what does that bring the order book to?

And the AC order is back?

50 772ERs for EK? Hmm.

And over 30 proposals for the 747ADV. I thought QF wasn't a taker for the 747ADV.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:49 pm

Quoting N1786b (Reply 5):
You failed to mention the internal Boeing document saying A. is selling the A350 for $85m.

So that's roughly a 45% discount then...

Hmmm, just for our own interest, how much do you think Boeing gives as discount on its list prices? 10? 20? Maybe 30 is it is a very big contract???

Airlines and manufacturers often are extremely discrete about this issue, except when you sell to a big-mouth like MOL from Ryanair! He waved papers showing he got his 737s at half price! That's right: around 50% off!

I'd say a 45% discount is on the high end, but certainly not exaggerated.
It is what customers want off the price and seeing the successful latest sales campaign from Boeing, is more than likely also what they've got. Anyway, we should find out over the coming years when we see just how much/few profit B. is reporting on their sales. It could turn out to be a very big disappointment, mind you...
 
trex8
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:35 pm

85million for a A350, whats the big deal, CI got its A333s for 80 and NW for even less. Same old SOP for Airbus. Did anyone expect them to sell at list price?????
 
MidnightMike
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:40 pm

Quote:
While the existing 777-200LR could fly from London to Sydney nonstop, strong headwinds on the reverse path demand a refueling stop. Boeing is offering Qantas a modified version of the jet with six auxiliary tanks and fewer seats that could make the journey nonstop in both directions.
NO URLS in signature
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:54 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 12):


Airlines and manufacturers often are extremely discrete about this issue, except when you sell to a big-mouth like MOL from Ryanair! He waved papers showing he got his 737s at half price! That's right: around 50% off!

I know exactly what UA paid for their A320s and all I'll say is that I was surprised that the discount was as steep as it was.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:38 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Lets not ignore the period in which the aircraft will be delivered. Having too many orders for delivery years down the road won't help cash flow / credibility of the order portfolio in the next 5 years.

Keesje, now that I've had a couple of cups of coffee, I'm still baffled by this statement. Perhaps it's just me...could you explain this? Is there such a thing as having "too many orders"? Nice problem to have!  Smile
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:44 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 16):
Keesje, now that I've had a couple of cups of coffee, I'm still baffled by this statement. Perhaps it's just me...could you explain this? Is there such a thing as having "too many orders"?

Perhaps I didn't read it correctly, but I think what Keesje meant is that if Boeing were to have too many orders, it would be a problem for Keesje.
 
N79969
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:50 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 16):
Keesje, now that I've had a couple of cups of coffee, I'm still baffled by this statement. Perhaps it's just me...could you explain this? Is there such a thing as having "too many orders"? Nice problem to have!

I actually think Keesje is not a human but a random word generating software application.
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:01 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 18):
I actually think Keesje is not a human but a random word generating software application.

LOL! ... but moving on...

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
- Boeing's proposal to Qantas includes:
- 45 787s
- 20 747ADVs
- 20 777-300ERs
- 5 777-200LRs

This is most interesting.

As it is also said that QF will split the order between two manufacturers, I would hazard a guess and say that the 20 747ADV will end up being exercised A380 options, plus maybe some more firm A380s. At the same time, they may get a good deal as launch customer for the new variant, and go with the 747s.

I think the 787 is a given purchase, as are the 777s.

Would love to see the Airbus proposal that is on the table in contrast.

Trent.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
N79969
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:07 pm

I wonder if the article meant 50 777-300ER for Emirates and not -200ER.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:16 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 20):
I wonder if the article meant 50 777-300ER for Emirates and not -200ER.

What about the 787-10?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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keesje
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:36 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 16):
Keesje, now that I've had a couple of cups of coffee

An OEM would perhaps rather have a 10 aircraft order from China Southern for delivery within 3 years then a (1996 coverted) Garuda order for 10 aircraft for delivery from 2011 (or a little later). Better a Cathay order then one from Primaris, better an Emirates order for 8 then an Ethiopian for 10, agree?

So focussing on the total orders you got this year can be a lot more interesting then on how many aircraft actually roll of the the line in the next three years, agree?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:53 pm

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
- likely to be firmed up by Dec. 31:
- 20 for Air India

I assume this will include AI "firming" their 15 777s and 18 738s too. Just needs to pass one more approval proceedure and they can sign

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
- 14 for Air Canada

Mr Bair has said they've been working with AC to meet their needs if AC can resolve the pilot issue. I assume they'll also get the 777s approved if the 787 order can be firmed too, right?

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
- 36 for several Chinese airlines (first time I've heard about this)

Of the 60 China have ordered this year only 24 are listed on Boeing's site. These are the other 36 but given the politic's of Chinese orders we'll just have to wait for them to be listed. These consist of
- 15 for China Eastern
- 10 for China Southern
- 8 for Hainan
- 3 for Xiamen
Each of those carriers has confirmed that they've signed but for some reason they're not yet listed

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
- Unannounced 787 prospects:
- Turkish Airlines 20 (first time I've heard about this)
- Aeroflot 15 (decision announced for Nov. 3rd)
- GECAS 15 (first time I've heard about this)
- RBS Aviation 10 (first time I've heard about this)

GECAS is no surprise as it was only a matter of time before they committed, the more so now that ILFC have seemingly signed for 20 + 4. As for TK & SU I'd have to say that the A350 is in with an even chance on either of those orders. Apparently we'll see what SU have decided on next week so not long to wait. As for RBS Aviation that's very interesting. They've ordered 40 narrow bodies evenly between Airbus and Boeing this year. Perhaps they are the undisclosed customer for 10 A350 commitments that Airbus have and they can disclose this when the 787 order is finalised, if they do order, just a thought.

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
- 777 proposals on the table:
- 50 777-200ERs to Emirates (against the A359 here and no mention of the 787-10X)
- up to 26 to Cathay Pacific

Again, Airbus is in with an even chance in both these RFPs. I'm surprised that they mention 50 772ERs for EK. IIRC they were more interested in 772LR/F and further 773ERs. IMO CX could go either way and it's interesting the 747Adv is not mentioned when CX is spoken of.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 1):
They are now filling their order book for the next few years at once

Actually, they've filled the first 2 years production already. They're now selling the following years production.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 1):
Boeing expected some of these orders already last year (200+ 787s by year's end, remember?)

Yes and by Boeing's own admission airlines held off from ordering in the hope of better pricing so they'd meet their target. But Boeing didn't yield on price to meet the sales target, remember?

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 1):
Anybody care to discuss some of the planes on the list??
I mean: the 747-400ADV to SIA for instance, that alone could make a good discussion....

It already has made for good discussion in many previous threads. Of more interest is that QF is considering 20 747 Adv. For an airplane that many have written off to have both SQ & QF evaluating orders for up to 33 frames is quite an achievement. To me though the best thing about this is that the market segment for the 747 through to the A380 is about to receive 2 major boosts irrespective of which manufacturer is chosen.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Lets not ignore the period in which the aircraft will be delivered. Having too many orders for delivery years down the road won't help cash flow / credibility of the order portfolio in the next 5 years.

Respectfully, you've got that wrong. Why,? Because I'm not sure your quote actually makes sense.

Boeing are increasing production annually to meet demand and though Airbus still leads in deliveries, 2006 and 2007 should almost see parity in deliveries between the two companies.

Interesting article and it'll be intersting times going into year end

Regards, PanAm_DC10
Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
 
Lumberton
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:55 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 22):
So focussing on the total orders you got this year can be a lot more interesting then on how many aircraft actually roll of the the line in the next three years, agree?

OK, so you are saying that rather than focusing solely on the quantity of the orders, one needs to keep in mind the *quality* of the orders? I can't argue against that in a general sense. However, ALL aircraft orders are subject to many forces beyond the control of the OEM's and the airlines (e.g., SARS, 9-11, market crashes, conflict, etc.). Better the "bird in hand", eh?

Also, large numbers create large "market buzz". Look at the splash Mr. Leahy was able to make at the Paris Airshow with the 100 Indigo order!
Regards,
L
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:14 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 22):
An OEM would perhaps rather have a 10 aircraft order from China Southern for delivery within 3 years then a (1996 coverted) Garuda order for 10 aircraft for delivery from 2011 (or a little later). Better a Cathay order then one from Primaris, better an Emirates order for 8 then an Ethiopian for 10, agree?

I can see your logic - Emirates is a bigger airline, hence more opportunity for follow on orders and so on and so forth.

However, I would disagree with you. I believe every order is important to a manufacturer, regardless of the size of it. Look at the hullaballoo that Boeing made over Air New Zealand's two 787s. For another example, do you think that the people who order business jet versions of airliners are treated with scorn because it'll only ever be a single frame? I don't think so.

Trent.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
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keesje
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:22 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 24):
Also, large numbers create large "market buzz". Look at the splash Mr. Leahy was able to make at the Paris Airshow with the 100 Indigo order!

True, I guess these (opportunistic) orders are seen as less impressive (by the market analists, stockholders etc) as orders from the established biggest 25 airlines. Randy & Leahy won't use them to much in their sales talks.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
United Airline
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:07 am

I suppose CX and BA and JAL will eventually order the B 747 Advanced. Also LH, NW and UA etc etc.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:32 am

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 23):
But Boeing didn't yield on price to meet the sales target.

There's one word missing there.. YET...

It's obvious B has changed its mind since this year, hence the claims from Airbus and -more importantly- the confirmation from several financial analysts that the stream of recent orders is due to the fact B has been marketing its products much more aggressively lately.

'Marketing' meaning 'pricing', 'cos that's what it comes down to in the end. Never mind the aircraft visits, the receptions, the scale models etc... No CEO will decide on a multi-billion euro contract based on the size of the aircraft model he got from either manufacturer, he will evaluate the offers and pick the one that makes most sence from a financial point of view.

I am convinced the management at B has recently decided to abandon their long lasting notoriously cautious sales strategy in which they'd always put decent profit margins before large sales numbers in order to start focusing on a strategy in which they want to win as much orders as possible, even if only at minimal margins.
All this of course in an effort to turn the tide and to gain back some of the lost market share, which in turn is of course a good thing for the immediate value of the B shares, something highly appreciated by the markets.

Now, beyond doubt Airbus can offer its customers very big discounts while at the same time remain extremely profitable (just look at the financial results from the past few years; achieved when A was supposedly dumping planes on the market!). It remains to be seen however how the new aggressive (Airbus style) sales strategy from B will reflect on its long term financial results! We should start to see clear on that in a few years... I am afraid a big disillusion is waiting some of you.
 
Slarty
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:42 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 28):
confirmation from several financial analysts that the stream of recent orders is due to the fact B has been marketing its products much more aggressively lately

Really? I would have thought the 15% or so depreciation of the $US against the Euro and the apparent performance differentials of the 77X vs. A34X were more important than marketing.

Are airline executives that succeptible to marketing hype? I would have thought the commitment decision would be fairly analytical.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:50 am

Quoting Slarty (Reply 29):
Are airline executives that succeptible to marketing hype? I would have thought the commitment decision would be fairly analytical.

may I suggest you read the second paragraph too, before jumping to conclusions?

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 28):
'Marketing' meaning 'pricing', 'cos that's what it comes down to in the end. Never mind the aircraft visits, the receptions, the scale models etc... No CEO will decide on a multi-billion euro contract based on the size of the aircraft model he got from either manufacturer, he will evaluate the offers and pick the one that makes most sence from a financial point of view.
 
Slarty
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:06 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 28):
'Marketing' meaning 'pricing', 'cos that's what it comes down to in the end.

Your second paragraph was full of hooey, as marketing & sales are different ... marketing is not "pricing". If you don't think so ask a VP of Marketing and then a VP of Sales what they think ...
 
elvis777
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:17 am

Hello sabena,

I have a question concerbing your last post

"Now, beyond doubt Airbus can offer its customers very big discounts while at the same time remain extremely profitable (just look at the financial results from the past few years; achieved when A was supposedly dumping planes on the market!). It remains to be seen however how the new aggressive (Airbus style) sales strategy from B will reflect on its long term financial results! We should start to see clear on that in a few years... I am afraid a big disillusion is waiting some of you.'

Are you trying to say that the manufacturing efficiency of the european manufacturer exceeds that of Boeing? I dont agree. If you would like we can talk about the costs associated with manufacturing an airliner in Renton and in Toulouse. Frankly I just dont understand your comment. It sounds to me like sour grapes.

A couple of points. It is a given that Boeing cannot sell Airplanes at a loss since it will impact the bottom line and as a publicly traded company that will not fly. So, even though Boeing had no new designs on the table Boeing kept up with Airbus in the sales front and made a profit from its ailiner manufacturing arm. So now they have a brand new plane that is coveted by many airlines (787) and a 777 that is also selling very well and in no need for discounts. I sometimes attend meetings with the non technical people, marketing guys etc., and it comes out that the best marketing strategy is having a good product. True the deals often involve complex and tortuorus negotiations where a tenth of a percentage point can mean lots of money and there is really lots of wiggle room there but at the end of the day do not sell a product at a loss - esspecially your flagship product. Does not mean it cannot be done , especially on the initial frames where there is more risk but at the end of the day you need to make a buck. In the aviation field that I am familiar with or at least have a passing knowledge of, the mantra is and has always been build a better product than your competitor, Have the technological brawn, the desire for excellence and the will to compete and it will all fall into place. If you have to sell your products at a loss then you do not belong in this bussiness.

Sabena, I believe that the one that will be disillusioned is you. I believe that you are already a bit disillusioned that more birds will fly out of Renton than from toulouse for the forseeable future.

Peace

Elvis777
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PHXinterrupted
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:28 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Anyone the value of the backlogs of Airbus & Boeing compared to just the number of airframes? (equalizing A380s with B737s isn't everything..)

Why don't you do that, Keesje. Look at the profit margin on these sales and tell us who's giving planes away. Need an A350 for only $85 million?
Keepin' it real.
 
Thorben
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:39 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 9):
Interesting article...but:

In the contest of the twin-engine 777s against the four-engine and therefore gas-guzzling A340s, the high price of fuel might tilt the balance Boeing's way.

"Gas-guzzling" is clearly a ridiculous term. The A346 is definitely less fuel efficient than its rival, but it doesn't mean it wastes fuel as a true "guzzler".

First, no second time today that I agree with you. That term "four-engine and therefore gas-guzzling" is so dumb that discussing this article is just not worth it.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
Lemurs
Posts: 1320
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2005 5:13 am

RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:53 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 34):
First, no second time today that I agree with you. That term "four-engine and therefore gas-guzzling" is so dumb that discussing this article is just not worth it.

Can I point out that dismissing the entire article because of one exageration is just as dumb as the exageration itself? Because it is.
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:59 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 3):
50 B777-200ERs to EK is dubious. They are more likely to twist Boeing's arm into selling them the B787-10.

If Boeing will not offer 787-10 to EK, they might as well say goodbye to them as a 777-200ER customer.
Say hello to Emirates A350 Big grin Big grin Big grin
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
JetMaster
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:59 am

Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 33):
Why don't you do that, Keesje. Look at the profit margin on these sales and tell us who's giving planes away. Need an A350 for only $85 million?

Do you believe anything Boeing says about Airbus? Show me a neutral source and we may talk again.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:09 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 36):
If Boeing will not offer 787-10 to EK, they might as well say goodbye to them as a 777-200ER customer.
Say hello to Emirates A350

I agree. I think the idea of EK ordering another 50 B777-200ERs is far-fetched. Given Clark's public statements, it appears his first choice is the B787-10 and that if Boeing won't offer it at a reasonable price and on an acceptable delivery schedule, then EK will order the A350-900. Again, if the B787-10 doesn't kill the B777-200ER, then the A350-900 will. Boeing will be lucky to get another B777-200ER orders across all airlines, ever.
 
Lemurs
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:17 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 37):
Do you believe anything Boeing says about Airbus? Show me a neutral source and we may talk again.

If it's an internal document that was not meant to be shared with the public, that increases it's believability quite a bit. Boeing gets no benefit to mis-representing it's competition to ITSELF, and it does not help them run a better business. There's a huge difference between internal communication and PR. You're making no differentiation here, either because you didn't notice it from the article, or you feel there is no difference.
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
 
F4N
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:17 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 28):
'Marketing' meaning 'pricing', 'cos that's what it comes down to in the end. Never mind the aircraft visits, the receptions, the scale models etc... No CEO will decide on a multi-billion euro contract based on the size of the aircraft model he got from either manufacturer, he will evaluate the offers and pick the one that makes most sence from a financial point of view.

Sabenapilot:

An interesting although ludicrous comment. Has it occurred to you that most businesses have a "marketing" department for a reason? Hint: it isn't to help Sales in negotiating a price, either. While you are correct in saying that the "aircraft visits", the "receptions" and the "scale models" do not themselves create sales, they are part of an effort to begin to create a value proposition in the minds of decision makers which is far more complex than your dismissive comments would indicate.
Based on your interpretation, value then is only a factor of price. Features, performance, resale, reliability, operating cost, delivery are inconsequential. It is surprising then that these sales campaigns take so long then, given that all A or B have to do is dump a lowball on an airline CEO and BoD to get the business. In addition to that, A should theoretically win all the business since they generally offer their a/c at a lower price because of their more efficient operations, right?

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 28):
Now, beyond doubt Airbus can offer its customers very big discounts while at the same time remain extremely profitable (just look at the financial results from the past few years; achieved when A was supposedly dumping planes on the market!). It remains to be seen however how the new aggressive (Airbus style) sales strategy from B will reflect on its long term financial results! We should start to see clear on that in a few years... I am afraid a big disillusion is waiting some of you.

I suspect that there may be some who will be disillusioned over what Boeing has done to become more competitive, but IMO, it will be critics such as yourself, whose lack of objectivity in these matters blinds you to the positives with regard to the "other side".
Boeing has done a great deal to alter their business model with regard to manufacturing costs, efficiencies and product development. They intend to do more. As these strategies begin to impact costs, pressure on margins theoretically should abate, allowing greater flexibility on pricing while still maintaining acceptable return. Sort of what A does...you don't seem to have a problem with that.

Oh, I forgot, that objectivity thing again.

regards,

F4N
 
JetMaster
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:22 am

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 39):
If it's an internal document that was not meant to be shared with the public, that increases it's believability quite a bit.

Well, could all be part of PR. "Internal document" sounds just better, doesn't it?

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 39):
Boeing gets no benefit to mis-representing it's competition to ITSELF, and it does not help them run a better business.

Isn't that a contradiction to what you just said? You say it wouldn't make sense to have such a document circulating internally, though you say it probably wasn't meant to be shared with the public. What's your point now?


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
luisca
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:25 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 41):
Isn't that a contradiction to what you just said? You say it wouldn't make sense to have such a document circulating internally, though you say it probably wasn't meant to be shared with the public. What's your point now?

Im getting a headache triying to understand what you say.

It is an internal memo, probably private, that leaked. not a Internal PR. You and Keesje should get married.
If it ain't Boeing (or Embraer ;-)) I ain't Going!
 
Ken777
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:26 am

Quoting Slarty (Reply 29):
Really? I would have thought the 15% or so depreciation of the $US against the Euro and the apparent performance differentials of the 77X vs. A34X were more important than marketing

That 16% may grow as the VPs top aide has now been indicted and the President's top aid is still at risk. That can sink the Dollar - yet again.

The 747ADV for QF might be the sleeper. I doubt if QF needs 380s on all routes the 744 flies and Boeing could work a pretty good deal to kick the pax version into gear. It'll be interesting to watch that one.
 
JetMaster
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:31 am

Quoting Luisca (Reply 42):
Im getting a headache triying to understand what you say.

Hm, reading again tomorrow may help...  Wink

Quoting Luisca (Reply 42):
It is an internal memo, probably private, that leaked. not a Internal PR. You and Keesje should get married.

Either you are kidding or you have no clue what you're talking about. Hint:
December Might Be A Big Month For Boeing (by NYC777 Oct 27 2005 in Civil Aviation)


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
Lemurs
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Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2005 5:13 am

RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:49 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 41):
sn't that a contradiction to what you just said? You say it wouldn't make sense to have such a document circulating internally, though you say it probably wasn't meant to be shared with the public. What's your point now?

Are you intentionally being obtuse? My point is that if the document is internal, it was meant to be accurate, or else Boeing would get no benefit from it. If you're claiming they're intentionally circulating bad numbers in the hopes that they would be leaked, you would be confusing Boeing for the White House. I can't guarantee the accuracy of the document, but you know what? I'll put more trust in the professional whose job it is to track down this kind of information and report it than anything you have presented me with so far. (Other than just doubt for doubt's sake, or a conspiracy theory motive.)

I'm not claiming the article is fact, I'm just saying your easy dismissal of it is for the wrong reasons, and far more dubious than the original report.
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
 
JetMaster
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RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:02 am

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 45):
Are you intentionally being obtuse?

Just see me IM.

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 45):
My point is that if the document is internal, it was meant to be accurate, or else Boeing would get no benefit from it.

Point taken.

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 45):
I'm not claiming the article is fact, I'm just saying your easy dismissal of it is for the wrong reasons, and far more dubious than the original report.

Well, I just say it could be part of PR, in the sense of giving some news to the press and calling it "internal" to make it look more accurate. Just my thoughts, we are free to disagree.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
N60659
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Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:24 pm

RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:15 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 38):
I agree. I think the idea of EK ordering another 50 B777-200ERs is far-fetched. Given Clark's public statements, it appears his first choice is the B787-10 and that if Boeing won't offer it at a reasonable price and on an acceptable delivery schedule, then EK will order the A350-900.

I agree that the number is rather high, but I wouldn't completely rule the 772ER out. Why? I think quite a bit hinges on EIS of both the 787 (-9, -10) and the A359. Both the A359 and 789 are targeting a 2010-2011 EIS and I have not heard of a concrete EIS date for the 787-10. So if EK is looking to fill capacity immediately, it is possible that they could either lease or purchase-leaseback 772ERs to fill the immediate (2007-2010 perhaps) need while waiting for the 787/A359.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 38):
Again, if the B787-10 doesn't kill the B777-200ER, then the A350-900 will. Boeing will be lucky to get another B777-200ER orders across all airlines, ever.

Possibly in the long-run, but just like Continental, TAAG and Austrian did this year, I think we will see a few more orders trickle in for a couple more years.

Quoting Luisca (Reply 42):
You and Keesje should get married.

I doubt it would be legally binding if this were to be true:

Quoting N79969 (Reply 18):
I actually think Keesje is not a human but a random word generating software application.

-N60659
Nec Dextrorsum Nec Sinistrorsum
 
astuteman
Posts: 6406
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:32 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 28):
I am convinced the management at B has recently decided to abandon their long lasting notoriously cautious sales strategy in which they'd always put decent profit margins before large sales numbers in order to start focusing on a strategy in which they want to win as much orders as possible, even if only at minimal margins.

If that was their goal, they've failed miserably. 3% - 7% margin in the last 4 years is NOT a decent profit margin. In fact, up until last year at least, Boeing ere out discounting Airbus by quite a margin - one of the reasons for lower profit. There's heaps of data supporting this.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 28):
Now, beyond doubt Airbus can offer its customers very big discounts while at the same time remain extremely profitable (just look at the financial results from the past few years; achieved when A was supposedly dumping planes on the market!). It remains to be seen however how the new aggressive (Airbus style) sales strategy from B will reflect on its long term financial results! We should start to see clear on that in a few years... I am afraid a big disillusion is waiting some of you.

You're right, except the disillusionment is already here. how long have we been bombarded with A "giveaways"?

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 32):
Are you trying to say that the manufacturing efficiency of the european manufacturer exceeds that of Boeing? I dont agree. If you would like we can talk about the costs associated with manufacturing an airliner in Renton and in Toulouse

Still not understand the 787 yet, then? Why do you think the 787 will be the biggest outsourced aircraft in Boeing's history? Why do you think Airbus want to increase outsourcing beyond 60%?
The final integrator ALWAYS carries the highest overheads (be it Airbus OR Boeing), and until the 787, Airbus have been cannier at the outsourcing. Boeing (CA) will struggle to beat Airbus profits until it has a product range outsourced to the same degree. 787 is the perfectly correct first step down that road (just to prove I'm not Boeing bashing..), and what a good step it is.

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 6):
To get there, Airbus may aggressively compete on price.

Both manufacturers ALWAYS compete aggressively on price - don't for one moment kid yourself its any different, or ever will be.

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 23):
But Boeing didn't yield on price to meet the sales target, remember?

Didn't they? They must have had the large discounts built in from the start. In fact, both companies do that. You think they don't know they're going to get hit for discounts?

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 25):
For another example, do you think that the people who order business jet versions of airliners are treated with scorn because it'll only ever be a single frame? I don't think so.

Quite the opposite I would guess. These smaller orders are way the most profitable in margin terms.
 
mham001
Posts: 4348
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

RE: Boeing To Sell Up To 965 Jets In 05

Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:34 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 43):
That 16% may grow as the VPs top aide has now been indicted and the President's top aid is still at risk. That can sink the Dollar - yet again.

Ridiculous. There are much more important issues affecting currency values than some aid indicted for perjury.

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