keesje
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Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:38 pm

The company is due to reveal the successful bidder on Thursday 3 November, awarding business with a list value not far short of $3 billion.

“We are looking at taking deliveries starting in 2009,” says director for route network management Alexander Kanischev. “Our long-term plan envisages acquiring up to 22 long-range passenger aircraft.”

If the airline decides to go with Airbus, it would have to wait a little longer for first deliveries as the A350 is not due to enter service until mid-2010.



From Flight International:
http://www.flightinternational.com/A...350+and+787+next+week.html#Scene_1



[Edited 2005-10-28 11:43:17]
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JoKeR
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:49 pm

This announcement will be the one to watch, could be quite interesting!

Any bets?
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JetMaster
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next W

Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:49 pm

That will be an extremely interesting announcement. Both companies should have realistic chances.

“We are looking at taking deliveries starting in 2009,”

Well, they might have a preference to get the first birds in 2009, but that doesn't exclude a later date. Some months shouldn't make such a big difference if they get a good deal.


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Danny
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:02 pm

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 2):
“We are looking at taking deliveries starting in 2009,”

I think 787 for 2009 are already sold out and A350 will not be ready. I think Airbus still has political advantage.
 
keesje
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:11 pm

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 2):
Both companies should have realistic chances.

I think politics will play a major role here. Expect Washington, Berlin & Paris to give Aeroflot free "advise" to make a "balanced" "realistic" and "wise" decision.

Recent involvement of Russian industry (Irkut) by A is no coincidence IMO.
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:12 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 3):
I think 787 for 2009 are already sold out and A350 will not be ready. I think Airbus still has political advantage.

I think the exact opposite: Russia wants to keep both the US and EU happy, and Airbus already has the narrowbody deal. This order is Boeing's to lose, I believe.
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:03 pm

hmm, could be coincidence however the Russian Minister of Industry will be visiting the US and will be meeting with of all companies... Boeing
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:30 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 5):
I think the exact opposite: Russia wants to keep both the US and EU happy, and Airbus already has the narrowbody deal. This order is Boeing's to lose, I believe.

I have my first agreement with Scorpio.  Wink Yes, I also think Russia will likely play both sides even. So, the scenario of narrowbody orders to Airbus and widebody orders to Boeing seems to be the most logical split.
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:36 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 5):
Quoting Danny (Reply 3):
I think 787 for 2009 are already sold out and A350 will not be ready. I think Airbus still has political advantage.

I think the exact opposite: Russia wants to keep both the US and EU happy, and Airbus already has the narrowbody deal. This order is Boeing's to lose, I believe.

Couldn't agree with you more. Boeing's advantage here is that they may be able to find Aeroflot some used MD-11 freighters which they desperately want.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 6):
hmm, could be coincidence however the Russian Minister of Industry will be visiting the US and will be meeting with of all companies... Boeing

This is telling. And as has been pointed out, Airbus has their short haul fleet pretty much wrapped up. I expect Boeing to get this order.
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Amy
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:37 pm

Quoting Dynkrisolo (Reply 7):
narrowbody orders to Airbus and widebody orders to Boeing seems to be the most logical split.

I'd like to think that Aeroflot will take the aircraft that's best suited to their needs... but you're probably right.
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Korg747
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:39 pm

It also makes sense to get the 787s since the A350s are sized similer to the 777-200ER, which they let go off, versus the 787 which is close to the 767s they operate now.
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:41 pm

Quoting Dynkrisolo (Reply 7):
I have my first agreement with Scorpio. Yes, I also think Russia will likely play both sides even.

Strange...I also agree with Scorpio.
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:56 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 5):
think the exact opposite: Russia wants to keep both the US and EU happy, and Airbus already has the narrowbody deal. This order is Boeing's to lose, I believe.

Could not agree more. SU have just placed order for 7 additional 321's, there are still large numbers of TU's to replace so many more Airbus narrow's could follow, so placing a 787 order will keep Boeing & the USA happy.
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:23 pm

Quoting Korg747 (Reply 10):
It also makes sense to get the 787s since the A350s are sized similer to the 777-200ER

The A350-900, perhaps, but not the -800.
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next W

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:35 pm

Where is the Il-96 in this battle?

IMHO it is a sad sign of the times that there are no Russian jets available or being considered for Russia's once-proud flag carrier.

Having said that, I agree with the other posts --- political 'even-handedness' suggests that this order is Boeing's to lose given Aeroflot's recent A319/320/321 orders.
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:41 pm

Any landing-/overfly rights up for (re)negotiation?
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keesje
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:56 pm

A few weeks ago..

Airbus offered Russia's aerospace industry as much as a 3 percent stake in its new A350 airliner.

United Aircraft Construction Co., a new company combining Russia's existing aerospace businesses, is interested in the stake, Airbus Chief Executive Gustav Humbert said at a conference in Paris Friday. "We have given an offer of work-share of roughly 3 percent to United Aircraft Co., and they're preparing the bid," he said.

Airbus has an engineering center in Moscow that will help design parts for the plane, Humbert said. Airbus said in December that it offered a 5 percent stake in the A350 to Chinese companies.

Russia is planning to set up an aircraft company by the end of 2006 that will combine OAO Irkut Corp., a maker of Sukhoi fighter planes; OKB Sukhoi; MiG Corp.; OAO Ilyushin; OAO Tupolev; and engineering units and factories.


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/243864_russia08.html
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n1786b
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:03 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 20):
A few weeks ago..

Airbus offered Russia's aerospace industry as much as a 3 percent stake in its new A350 airliner.

So?

Maybe that was for the 7 A321s and 5 (?) leased A320s.

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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:05 pm

Should be interesting. Can't wait to see the outcome for this one. Good luck to both companies for the deal.
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:08 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 19):
2. It is unknown if B787 will be a better aircraft than A350.

Depends upon your metric. If you're an airline or its shareholders, the 787 is a more economical choice for many routes. The A350-900 may be a better choice for higher capacity routes, barring the existence of the 787-10.

However, if you are BP, Royal Dutch/Shell, Alcoa, or Alcan, you will root for the A350.  Wink
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:12 pm

Quoting N1786b (Reply 21):
So?

That doesn't seem significant but it is for a 20 year program.

A lot of people say that B will win this, ok then ill go for the underdogs and say Airbus will win it all.  Wink

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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:18 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 19):
1. It is unknown what deals Aeroflot is offered.
2. It is unknown if B787 will be a better aircraft than A350.

You state certain facts correctly. But the tea leaves are clearly pointing a certain way. Airlines and lessors that have signed up for the 787 or A350 clearly have done their homework before signing the dotted line and committing billions of dollars. While there are many unknowns about the 787, it has clearly impressed many important players. The A350 may do the same or perhaps better but that remains to be seen.

Like China, Russia uses aircraft purchases as a part of diplomacy. Given recent history and that fact, I think one can reasonably say that 787 may have the edge.

[Edited 2005-10-28 16:19:23]
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:29 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 19):
Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 14):
Ultimately Aeroflot will try and get the best deal for the best aircraft. This one is clearly leaning towards Boeing.

1. It is unknown what deals Aeroflot is offered.
2. It is unknown if B787 will be a better aircraft than A350.

1. I reference this ENTIRE thread... A.Net is mostly speculation which we all divulge in, and enjoy.

2. I didn't say which one was better. I said the Airlines will decide which one will be better for their own circumstances. The order counts speak for themselves.
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Danny
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:32 pm

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 26):
The order counts speak for themselves.

I'm affraid it doesn't. You need to consider for how long each of the models is being offered. Order count in 10-15 years from now will be speaking for itself. Not now.
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:33 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 25):
Airlines and lessors that have signed up for the 787 or A350 clearly have done their homework before signing the dotted line and committing billions of dollars.

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2147542
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2285612
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2096858

Will ILFC (hopefully) be the first leasing company for the 787? N79969 can you go deeper into this homework thing?
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:35 pm

This order has Airbus written all over it.

It just smacks me as the most obvious choice given the political atmosphere and Airbus' recent "moves" with the russian aerospace industry.
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:41 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 27):
I'm affraid it doesn't. You need to consider for how long each of the models is being offered. Order count in 10-15 years from now will be speaking for itself. Not now.

You can pick and choose any facts you want to believe. Me, I try and look at everything from all perspectives. In 10 or 15 years, the order count might be different, true. But I as of today, sounds like the order count isn't quite going your way. No one here knows for sure what the order count will be a decade from now, what kind of aircraft will be offered, or even if Boeing and Airbus will even be in existance (Although it's a safe bet both will be doing just fine, thank you).
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atmx2000
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:22 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 29):
This order has Airbus written all over it.

It just smacks me as the most obvious choice given the political atmosphere and Airbus' recent "moves" with the russian aerospace industry

I'm surprised that no one has brought up the fact that Boeing has employed many Russian aerospace engineers on commercial aircraft development for many years now, and that Russians engineers are responsible for the 787 nose engineering. Russia has already received contracts from Boeing for materials, and a Russian air transportation company is most likely going to be part of the logistics operations for Boeing manufacturing.

Let's not forget that Aeroflot is a 763 operator and has dumped larger aircraft like the 772ER for excess capacity issues. The 788 is most similar replacement for the 763.
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:34 am

Here's whats going to happen: Aeroflot will buy 787s, one of them they will sell to the new Russian aerospace company that will result from the planned consolidation of Tupolev and Ilyushin, they will strip it down to get their hands on the new composite technology and will produce the new Russian widebody 250 seater  Smile

























...just kidding  Smile  Smile
But logically, look at the date of delivery: 2009. That's enough to say who will be the winner. A350s won't come on line until 2011...
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next W

Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:21 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 31):

Let's not forget that Aeroflot is a 763 operator and has dumped larger aircraft like the 772ER for excess capacity issues. The 788 is most similar replacement for the 763.

I agree with you, it makes sense.

But since when has that stopped an airline ordering an aircraft it doesn't need due to "other requirements"?

[Edited 2005-10-28 18:37:36]
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N79969
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:30 am

Keesje,

According to the Wall Street Journal, ILFC has signed up. Given the reputation of that newspaper and that ILFC orders are considered harbingers of things to come...why do I bother explaining anything to you?

Anyway I am not sure how anyone would consider speculative threads from this website as an actual reference or proof of anything. Have you heard of circular reasoning? Do you know the problem with it?
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:00 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 31):
I'm surprised that no one has brought up the fact that Boeing has employed many Russian aerospace engineers on commercial aircraft development for many years now, and that Russians engineers are responsible for the 787 nose engineering. Russia has already received contracts from Boeing for materials, and a Russian air transportation company is most likely going to be part of the logistics operations for Boeing manufacturing.

Interesting that you point this out. Look at the noses of the RRJ and 787, and Boeing has a hand in both.
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atmx2000
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 5:28 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 33):
I agree with you, it makes sense.

But since when has that stopped an airline ordering an aircraft it doesn't need due to "other requirements"?

You ignored the first part of the post.

Which other requirements? Boeing already has a significant relationship with Russian vendors and a direct relationship with a substantial number of Russian employees, with the latter having little to do with industrial offsets. If politics and some new Airbus industrial offsets were to eliminate the 787 from contention, Boeing would have to ask itself whether it would want to deal with Russian vendors and workers in the long term.

My view is that Airbus and Boeing relationships with Russian suppliers will mostly cancel each other out, and airline requirements will be primary. It is best for the airlines and best for the Russian aerospace industry, as they will continue to get strong business from both Boeing and Airbus as they have been as both companies look around for engineering talent and lower cost suppliers. If government interference or other forms of influence peddling enter the equation, that will strain relationships between the losing manufacturer and Russia and Russian industry.
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garpd
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next W

Sat Oct 29, 2005 5:36 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 36):

You ignored the first part of the post.

Which other requirements? Boeing already has a significant relationship with Russian vendors and a direct relationship with a substantial number of Russian employees, with the latter having little to do with industrial offsets. If politics and some new Airbus industrial offsets were to eliminate the 787 from contention, Boeing would have to ask itself whether it would want to deal with Russian vendors and workers in the long term.

My view is that Airbus and Boeing relationships with Russian suppliers will mostly cancel each other out, and airline requirements will be primary. It is best for the airlines and best for the Russian aerospace industry, as they will continue to get strong business from both Boeing and Airbus as they have been as both companies look around for engineering talent and lower cost suppliers. If government interference or other forms of influence peddling enter the equation, that will strain relationships between the losing manufacturer and Russia and Russian industry.

Again, I completely agree with you.
I just get the feeling this is Airbus' order.

Why?
Simply said, they WANT another A350 order. I won't say desperate as that'd just get the flagwavers going.
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atmx2000
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 5:48 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 37):
Simply said, they WANT another A350 order. I won't say desperate as that'd just get the flagwavers going.

If you arguing that Airbus is going to give steep discounts and/or huge industrial offsets to win the order, well that is certainly a possibility. The former would certainly be to Aeroflot's advantage. The latter would only be political if it involved offsets to a non-Aeroflot associated company/organization. But from what you original post said, it sounded more that politics and industrial offsets would make this a natural win for Airbus, not the airline's requirements.
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:20 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 34):
But from what you original post said, it sounded more that politics and industrial offsets would make this a natural win for Airbus, not the airline's requirements.

Perhaps I should have been clearer from the start, my apologies.
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atmx2000
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:29 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 35):
Perhaps I should have been clearer from the start, my apologies.

No problem. My view is that the order probably favors Boeing on the basis of the aircraft, but that Airbus could win if they give a really sweet deal on some A358s.

[Edited 2005-10-28 23:31:04]
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next W

Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:42 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 25):
It just smacks me as the most obvious choice given the political atmosphere and Airbus' recent "moves" with the russian aerospace industry.

GARPD, based on my (very subjective) impression of Mr. Putin's posturing recently, I feel you may be correct. This will be his chance to show the U.S. that Russia's aviation industry is quite capable of getting along without us. Again, just a "feeling".
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FCKC
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:10 am

Probably they will go 787.
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:10 am

My money is on the 788.

The A350 may be a little bit too large for SU as they found with their 772ER frames, replacing them with the 763. Unless Airbus offers a deal with the A330 as a stopgap I can't see this one going their way.

Aeroflot doesn't have the routes and loads for a truly large bird of 777 capacity, and the IL-96 is still in their fleet. Shame the IL-96M/T never happened.
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hjulicher
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:24 am

Aeroflot just recently ordered 6 IL-96 300's so I wouldn't say that the Russian aerospace industry is out of luck. Just wait till the RRJ. Once that is built, you should see a lot of orders for Aeroflot.
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sq212
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:54 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 41):
My money is on the 788.

Roger. SU ordered 7x 321 last week, A350 should have included in that order if they go for it.

Cheers
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:18 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
I think politics will play a major role here. Expect Washington, Berlin & Paris to give Aeroflot free "advise" to make a "balanced" "realistic" and "wise" decision.

I think the Boeing design center in Moskow may be part of this political effort. Also I'd expect Vlad and W to be getting together for a couple of BBQ's to work out some sort of "deal"

iwok
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:00 pm

SU will order whatever Putin wants them to order. Price and performance are very nearly irrelevant. Anyone making a decision that Putin doesn't like would face a hellish nightmare of tax inspections or worse. It's not at all difficult to imagine people going to prison for placing an order (this large and public) that Putin doesn't like.
 
keesje
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:15 am

Interesting :

- deal for 22 aircraft
- acquisition MD-11 freighters for new Aeroflot-Cargo is being tied to a possible 787 deal

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...name+long-haul+winner.html#Scene_1
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EI321
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:23 am

Quoting Korg747 (Reply 10):
It also makes sense to get the 787s since the A350s are sized similer to the 777-200ER, which they let go off, versus the 787 which is close to the 767s they operate now.

SU have like 8 767s but dont forget their fleet of IL86/96 (which are more imminent for replacement) is bigger and closer to the size of the A350.
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Wed Nov 02, 2005 8:26 am

Why is Aeroflot so tied to the MD-11. Couldn't Boeing offer them a deal involving some 744F's?
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RedChili
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Wed Nov 02, 2005 6:42 pm

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 39):
The A350 may be a little bit too large for SU as they found with their 772ER frames, replacing them with the 763.

Actually, SU didn't get rid of the 772 because it was too big. They did it to get fleet commonality. SU had no problems filling up the 772, but they only had two frames of that type.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 45):
SU have like 8 767s but dont forget their fleet of IL86/96 (which are more imminent for replacement) is bigger and closer to the size of the A350

The IL86 has approx 350 seats, almost only economy, and it's mostly used on charter flights to Mediterranean destinations. I would say that an A333 would be the ideal plane to replace the IL86.

The IL96 only has 227 seats, so it could easily be replaced by the 788.

Personally, I give Boeing a 60 percent chance of winning this order, and Airbus a 40 percent chance. But I believe that both planes could do the job.
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next W

Wed Nov 02, 2005 10:07 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 47):

Quoting EI321 (Reply 45):
SU have like 8 767s but dont forget their fleet of IL86/96 (which are more imminent for replacement) is bigger and closer to the size of the A350

The IL86 has approx 350 seats, almost only economy, and it's mostly used on charter flights to Mediterranean destinations. I would say that an A333 would be the ideal plane to replace the IL86.

The IL96 only has 227 seats, so it could easily be replaced by the 788.

I think that Aeroflot will replace the IL-86 way before the IL-96. Aeroflot recently ordered an additional 6 IL-96's, that means they are planning to operate the type for a long time to come. The IL-86 is much older and is already out of production, I don't think it is still in procution is it? Aeroflot may keep a few 86's for a while but they will use them only on charter flights to holiday destinations. The A320's and A321's Aeroflot recently ordered, the 767-300's and the IL-96's are the ones that will be seen on pax mainline flights for years to come, and of course either the A330/A350 or the 787 which is what the subject of this thread is all about. With the exception of the IL-96, all Russian built aircraft will be phased out by the end of the decade.

Ben Soriano
Brussels Belgium
Ben Soriano
 
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RE: Aeroflot To Choose Between A350 And 787 Next Week

Wed Nov 02, 2005 10:33 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 46):
Why is Aeroflot so tied to the MD-11. Couldn't Boeing offer them a deal involving some 744F's?

For the same reason other major freight operators (FedEx, Lufthansa, etc) like the MD-11F..... it does the job in the most effective and economic manner.

Lots of power and lift capacity, excellent range, and lots of life left.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?