airlinespotter
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US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:02 am

Will US ever consisder Asia in the near future? and if the do which country they will fly to? I realized that all their long-range, widebody A/C are being used, but are they getting more A333-200 and B787 anytime soon? I think Philadelphia and Phoenix are great hubs for the initial service to Asia. What do you'll e.neters think? Thanks for any input.
 
PHXinterrupted
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:08 am

As part of the merger financing, Airbus made them a $250 million loan so that they would buy the 350, so you don't have to worry about them buying the 787.
Keepin' it real.
 
PanAm747
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:35 am

There are two problems with getting routes to Asia: (1) Permission, and (2) slots at certain airports.

It seems to me that everytime a route is announced here at a.net, there are several airlines competing for that route - AA serving CAN (I think), CO hoping for more China routes, UA and NW entrenched but fighting for market share. For another competitor such as US, it would make it that much harder.

Is NRT the only slot restricted airport in terms of planes? I know airlines need permission for slots there. What about other Asian airports?
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supa7E7
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:47 am

LAS-PEK, LAS-PVG, LAS-TPE, LAS-ICN, LAS-BKK come to mind. LAS-NGO, LAS-KIX also.

Around 2010 the US-China traffic will be pumped up beyond all recognition. Coindidentally, US's A350s will be arriving. PHL will be the Europe hub and LAS could be the Asian.
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
vega
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:23 am

Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 3):
LAS-PEK, LAS-PVG, LAS-TPE, LAS-ICN, LAS-BKK come to mind. LAS-NGO, LAS-KIX also

Are you serious?

Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 3):
Around 2010 the US-China traffic will be pumped up beyond all recognition. Coindidentally, US's A350s will be arriving. PHL will be the Europe hub and LAS could be the Asian

We don't really know what Parker, etal. are strategizing regarding the Far East, or Europe for that matter. If they really felt the Asian market was an opportunity not to be missed, they could lease the appropriate aircraft and start service well before the 350, or if not available, the fallback 787 arrives.
We are but a moment in this vast Universe and when gone we will never have existed.
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:36 am

Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 3):
LAS-PEK, LAS-PVG, LAS-TPE, LAS-ICN, LAS-BKK come to mind. LAS-NGO, LAS-KIX also.

Well just a few problems with these routes. PEK/PVG are very difficult to get rights to fly to. TPE and ICN are VERY low margin. KIX is a maybe...but would be difficult. NGO cannot really support an airline with out a Toyota contract from the states. AA pulled there services after they lost the RFP for Toyota and I have herd rumors that NW will be going to 4x weekly on NGO. NRT or HKG are the best bets if they are trying to fly from LAS. However their best bet for new Asia service is from PHL. PHL desperately needs NRT service. With star they could make very good downline connections. I have thought for years that UA should be operating this service. Feeding with O&D and a fair amount of UA passengers off codeshare flights from destinations where UA does not serve. Anyhow just my two cents.

-m

  

Quoting Vega (Reply 4):
Are you serious?

Relax there Chief...not everyone knows the Asia economics. From the number of airlines in those destinations they appear to be lucrative.

[Edited 2005-10-29 00:38:31]
 
gigneil
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:38 am

Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 3):
PHL will be the Europe hub and LAS could be the Asian.

Phoenix would get service long before LAS, and I would expect PHL to get some even before PHX.

I would expect them to foray into NRT if they can get slots... but probably not anywhere else right away.

The 350 will be perfect for these routes when they're ready.

N
 
Cory6188
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:42 am

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 5):
PHL desperately needs NRT service

This is true.....but does the presence of EWR <2 hours away with a CO nonstop to NRT influence this fact?
 
dutchjet
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:46 am

The new US will have A350s that are certainly capable of flying transpacific routes out of not only PHX or LAX, but also out of PHL. PHX or LAS could serve as trans-pacific gateways, or even a PHL-NRT flight is a possibility, so it could happen. If and when the new US will enter the Pacific market is another story - an open skies policy has not been embraced in the pacific region, so route authorities will be hard to obtain and it will take time, there is a good amount of risk associated with entering the longhaul transpacific marketplace due to the long routes and equipment required (DL did not have much luck with the Pacific for example), and LAS and PHX- which could be interesting as pacific gateway cities from a geographic point of view - are more lesiure oriented cities and may not generate enough O/D traffic or premium traffic to make the services interesting financially. Although many people from Asia are fascinated with Las Vegas and gambling, running flights from Las Vegas to Asian destinations has considerable risk.

Short answer, maybe, but its probably far too soon to tell if US will look to add routes accross the Pacific - Pacific services may simply be handled by STAR alliance partner UA.
 
gigneil
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:46 am

Philadelphia's catchment reaches to Baltimore, and Philly is the 4th largest metro in the United States.

It could easily support NRT service, and UA was going to fly it after the US acquisition.

N
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:46 am

Quoting Cory6188 (Reply 7):
This is true.....but does the presence of EWR <2 hours away with a CO nonstop to NRT influence this fact?

Yea but does JFK's large Asian flight presence change EWR's flights? Not really. My bets on US's new Asia service in no particular order:

PHL NRT
PHL HKG
BOS NRT
PHX NRT
PHX HKG

-m

 airplane 
 
gigneil
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:48 am

I dunno about PHX-HKG, but the power of the UA and ANA hubs at NRT make all that NRT service feasible, in my mind.

PHL-HKG sits at only a "maybe" with me.

N
 
JoFMO
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:58 am

SQ tried SIN-HKG-LAS some years ago 3 times a week and they failed.
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:58 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 11):
PHL-HKG sits at only a "maybe" with me

Well with the high demand of east coast passengers wanting to bypass the west coast US shouldnt have too much of a hard time. They have a Power house hub in PHL they shouldnt have too many troubles. Not to mention they could probably code on UA SIN and SGN flights beyond.

-m

 airplane 
 
gigneil
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:06 am

They certainly have a lot of flexibility... I can't wait to see what happens.

I would think PHX-NRT and PHL-NRT are almost foregone conclusions. They have the rights, they just need slots.

N
 
airlinespotter
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:34 am

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 10):
PHL NRT
PHL HKG
BOS NRT
PHX NRT
PHX HKG

What about CLT? it's still US biggest hub isn't it?
 
gigneil
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:27 am

It is... but the O/D power of PHL is significantly greater and most of the connections via CLT can also be made via PHL.

N
 
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malaysia
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:56 am

Quoting Airlinespotter (Reply 15):

What about CLT? it's still US biggest hub isn't it?

That would be more likely to be CLT-VTE

Most Asians in NC are LAO/HMONG
 yummy 
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centrair
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 10:37 am

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 5):
NGO cannot really support an airline with out a Toyota contract from the states. AA pulled there services after they lost the RFP for Toyota and I have herd rumors that NW will be going to 4x weekly on NGO.

Hmmm... I have heard that too. But for some reason it doesn't add up. "NGO cannot really support an airline without a Toyota Contract from the states." I didn't realize that the 10th most economically strong region in the world depended so heavily on Toyota.

Quote:
Chubu is home to the headquarters and production plants of several vehicle manufacturing corporations that are active on a global scale, such as Toyota Motor Corporation, Honda Motor, Mitsubishi Motors Corporation, Suzuki Motor Corporation and Yamaha Motor, producing 5.27 million motor vehicles (9.44% of the world market in 2001) and 1.55 million motorcycles (8.13% of the world market in 2000).

...6,000 local automobile parts manufacturers' production plants, including Denso Corporation, Toyota Industries Corporation, Aisin Seiki and Toyoda Gosei, are all centrally located in the three prefectures of Aichi, Shizuoka and Mie.

Japan's biggest aerospace enterprises, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries and a number of associated enterprises are located in Chubu.


Chubu Economic Federation

We also are home to Epson, Seiko, Hitachi Advanced Technologies, and a host of other IT companies and developers.

What about the European market. We have daily NGO-FRA and NGO-CDG. Soon we are getting 4x week NGO-HEL. Austrian has also stated interest in serving NGO. Do they survive with Toyota Contracts?

NH planning NGO-SEA (a rare move for them) for next year to support Boeing/Mitsubishi/Fuji/Kawasaki with 777, 787 and 737 parts production and engineering.

If US were to start flying to NGO, of course it would be a challenge for them though. Their destinations PHL, PHX and LAS are not big for industry which is why business people come here. They could get NRT but very difficult until the new runway opens (in the next 30 years). ICN would be an easy one as it has low landing fees, very open right now and looking for more carriers. In the next 10 years I think we will see Asia start looking like the European market today. Prices will drop due to increased competition. But...US will have huge hurdles. They have limited experience, A/C and would not only be going up against US carries already in Asia but Asian carries that will be wanting to expand in North America. It goes both ways.
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
cltguy
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:13 pm

As far as CLT is concerned there are about 75 Japanese company's with operations in the Charlotte area so Tokyo is a good candidate.
 
ballsdeep
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:00 pm

When is US Airways taking the delivery if the A330's and are the 200 or 300 version?
 
Squid
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:04 pm

No, I doubt they will go to asia within the next ten years. That is why they belong to the Star alliance.
 
gigneil
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:06 pm

Quoting Ballsdeep (Reply 20):
When is US Airways taking the delivery if the A330's and are the 200 or 300 version?

Here's the thing... nobody is exactly sure.

The upcoming frames were A330-200s due for 2007.

What's unclear is if the order for the A350 replaces these frames, or supplements them.

N
 
N1120A
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:11 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 22):
The upcoming frames were A330-200s due for 2007.

Wasn't that order just straight canceled?
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
gigneil
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:15 pm

Well, no. I don't think so.

"Answer not so clear"

N
 
SonOfACaptain
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:17 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 22):
What's unclear is if the order for the A350 replaces these frames, or supplements them.

The A332's will start delivery in 2009. They were not cancelled, just delayed. US is the launch customer for the A350, so they will come in Airbus is done playing with it, which I think they say 2011, or around there.

-SOAC

[Edited 2005-10-29 07:24:22]
Non Illegitimi Carborundum
 
gigneil
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:19 pm

Quoting SonOfACaptain (Reply 25):
US is the launch customer for the A332, so they will come in Airbus is done playing with it, which I think they say 2011, or around there.

Hmm? What? The A330-200 is a popular variant in service with airlines around the world since 1996.

N
 
SonOfACaptain
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:25 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 26):
Hmm? What?

Haha, thanks for catching that. I mean't the A350.

-SOAC
Non Illegitimi Carborundum
 
karan69
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:38 pm

What i would like to see is the extention of their current PHL-MAN services to BOM. They could do this when the defferred A330-200s come online. It would be a nice route linking all the major textile centers to one another.

How many 330s they still have left to be delivered in 2008-09.
 
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malaysia
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:55 pm

Then it will be CLT-NRT-VTE, freaky! I wonder how Thai would feel, but can the runway handle a big jet from a NRT arrival
There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
 
John
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 10:10 pm

The A332 order was NOT canceled. A total of 10 examples should start arriving in 2008. They are supposed to replace the 762s.
 
A330323X
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 10:13 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 22):
Here's the thing... nobody is exactly sure.

The upcoming frames were A330-200s due for 2007.

What's unclear is if the order for the A350 replaces these frames, or supplements them.

It's quite clear. There's an order for 10x A330-200 for delivery in 2009-10. There's another order for 20x A350-800 for delivery in 2011-13. (There are also a number of A32X on order from the previous US and HP orders.) There are certain provisions for cancellations, but I suspect they're rather standard to most any order.

See, for example, http://www.projectbarbell.com/docs/airbus_term_sheet.pdf.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
kkfla737
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sat Oct 29, 2005 10:59 pm

Didn't HP plan service to Asia about 10-15 years ago only to scrap it at the last minute? I vaguely remember talk that they were going to fly to Nagoya.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:08 am

Quoting Kkfla737 (Reply 32):
I vaguely remember talk that they were going to fly to Nagoya.

They did....errr..HP did. They served PHX-HNL-NGO with a leased 747 in the 90's IIRC. As you can imagine, it didn't last very long.

[Edited 2005-10-29 17:08:57]
 
dutchjet
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:09 am

As I understand it, US still has the A332s on order, and delivery has been pushed back......the timeframe is still a bit unclear, but it now seems that the A332s will be delivered between 2008 and 2010 (a few years late, origianlly, the aircraft would have been delivered in 2006 I think) and will replace the 762 fleet on a one-for-one basis, although some tend to think that with the merger, the 762s may hang around a bit longer to introduce additional longhaul routes, operate some of the new Hawaii services, and/or fly some high-demand domestic segments. Its still too soon to tell - also consider that the A332 is a much bigger airplane than the 762, will the A332 make economic sense on some of the thinner transatlatnic routes out of PHL, such as AMS and MUN on a year-round basis? The A332s are still a few years away, and there is still a lot to be worked out.

As for the A350s - its still unknown as to whether the new US will use the aircraft for expansion or to replace the A330 fleet......on one hand, a fleet of 40 widebody A330s/A350s is rather large for the new airline unless they have huge longhaul expansion plans in mind, but on the other hand, the US A330 fleet is very young (the A332s have not even been delivered yet) and it seems unlikely that US will quickly dispose of the A330s. The A350 purchase was a controversial provision in the deal whereby Airbus provided a portion of the exit financing for US and the combined HP/US - while it was clear as to why Airbus wanted to keep HP/US in the air (they are both large A32X operators), it was very unclear as to why the new airline would commit to or need twently additional widebody airliners. The good news is that there are years to figure all of this out - lots can change (for better or for worse) in the coming years which will determine the exact use of the A350 over at US/HP.
 
iMac7477
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:29 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 34):
will the A332 make economic sense on some of the thinner transatlatnic routes out of PHL, such as AMS and MUN on a year-round basis?

Doesn't US already use a lot of A333s to MUC(edit)? I understand the AMS reasoning completely, though.

With a lot of us agreeing that PHL needs some Asia service (besides the direct to HKG through SFO), what do you think of the likelihood--or not--of an Asian carrier serving PHL...i remember reading on another post that PHL and KE were in talks a while back...why did that fall through?

Also, if US was planning on starting Asia service at some point, would they fight to keep out foreign carriers that had any plans?

[Edited 2005-10-29 17:50:06]
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:42 am

Quoting IMac7477 (Reply 35):
Doesn't US already use a lot of A333s to MUN?

sorry to be ignorant...but whats MUN?

-m

 airplane 
 
iMac7477
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:45 am

i'm sorry...i meant MUC...thanks for catching that.
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:47 am

Quoting IMac7477 (Reply 37):
i'm sorry...i meant MUC...thanks for catching that.

oh ok cool...makes since...I thought I was missing something...it wouldnt supprise me...I am a blond after all!

-m

 airplane 
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 1:24 am

Quoting IMac7477 (Reply 35):
With a lot of us agreeing that PHL needs some Asia service (besides the direct to HKG through SFO), what do you think of the likelihood--or not--of an Asian carrier serving PHL...i remember reading on another post that PHL and KE were in talks a while back...why did that fall through?

I would imagine IAD would get Asian service before PHL. Does ANA still operate IAD-NRT? I am actually surprised UA doesn't fly IAD-NRT.

The first Asian city/route I can see US operating is PHX-NRT. The new US is HP management and I can see them maximizing new international opportunites at PHX before expanding across the Pacific (err North Pole?) from PHL. LAS-NRT possible second, but not daily. PHL-NRT/Asia in perhaps 5 years or so, but before then is a long shot in my opinion.
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:44 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 39):
Does ANA still operate IAD-NRT? I am actually surprised UA doesn't fly IAD-NRT.

Yes ANA dose still fly IADNRT. They mostly do it for high margin diplamatic traffic. They are able to pick up the incramental O&D as well. If another carrier would enter the market they wouldnt get the largest chunk of the dip traffic because they would want to stay on a Japan national carrier. That would leave the new entrent with a split of the O&D. Right now that does not ammount to enough for a nonstop flight with year round profitability. It makes more since for UA to operate direct service via ORD and SFO.

-m

 airplane 
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:51 am

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 40):
Yes ANA dose still fly IADNRT.

Thanks UnitedTristar. I would assume UA code shares.
 
iMac7477
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:30 am

I don't think that it's so clear cut that the new US would start Asia servire--if they start it at all--first from Phoenix...I realize that their new management is the HP management, and that they have sentimental ties to PHX...but they know that there won't be much O&D traffic on Asian routes to/from PHX, and that PHL would have a lot more...Plus, as was said in a previous post, it would be a relief for many people to have to bypass the West Coast...

Sure the HP management has ties to PHX, but they're smart guys, the airline is in the business of making money and staying around, and I doubt they'd start PHX service just because they are from America West.
 
flyboyaz
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:43 am

Quoting IMac7477 (Reply 42):
Sure the HP management has ties to PHX, but they're smart guys, the airline is in the business of making money and staying around, and I doubt they'd start PHX service just because they are from America West.

Very true but a PHX flight would most likely have a lot of connections from other places anywhere in the system. I see alot of people connecting to Asia on our flights...mostly going to LAX and then to points in the Orient.
Catch a ride on a smile!
 
iMac7477
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:46 am

I think it would be awesome and great for PHX to get flights to Asia...but as I said, the problem is not connecting traffic, it's O&D.
 
ballsdeep
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:17 am

What kind of O&D numbers would they need to see for a PHX-NRT or PHX-HKG Flight to be profitable or at least break even?
 
laxtwin
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:27 am

I think that Phoenix will be the west bound hub much like Philadelphia is the east bound. The majority of transpacific flights will be from PHX, which will also gain some European flights. And PHI will remain the primary departure point for Europe with some transpacific flights. Any transpacific routes from LAS will be primarily O/D.
 
dutchjet
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:32 am

Quoting Ballsdeep (Reply 45):
What kind of O&D numbers would they need to see for a PHX-NRT or PHX-HKG Flight to be profitable or at least break even?



Quoting Laxtwin (Reply 46):
I think that Phoenix will be the west bound hub much like Philadelphia is the east bound. The majority of transpacific flights will be from PHX, which will also gain some European flights. And PHI will remain the primary departure point for Europe with some transpacific flights. Any transpacific routes from LAS will be primarily O/D.

HP would hope that atleast 50% of the traffic on the routes would be O&D traffic as, in general, O&D traffic commands higher fares than connecting services. There is also the issue of premium cabin demand, which could be problematic for both PHX and LAS as both cities tend to be leisure oriented destinations.

While PHX or LAS as a pacific gateway are interesting from a geographic point ov view, there is a big issue of whether there is adequate O&D demand to support the flights, and if there is, is there any premium demand? A flight filled with tourists on bargain fares is not what US will be looking for on these types of longhaul routes. PHL-NRT could be far more interesting from the point of view of pax mix.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:34 am

Quoting IMac7477 (Reply 42):
Plus, as was said in a previous post, it would be a relief for many people to have to bypass the West Coast...

Yes I am sure you are right. However there are currently many options to key destinations in Asia that bypass the West Coast: via NYC, Chicago, Washington DC, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Minneapolis, Detroit....I still think PHX-NRT (for starters) would be more viable for US' debut into Asia.

With that being said, I would love to be proven wrong - does anybody have information, just by numbers, of O&D NRT-PHX vs. NRT-PHL? The Southwestern US is growing in popularity with Asian-Americans, overseas industries, tourism and of course, PHX itself is one of the fastest growing metropolises in the US. Which isn't to dilute the merits of PHL and it's significance in American business, tourism and population. However US can link Asia via PHX with more of their network, such as LAS, Texas, and, yes, PHL.

Just a thought. Now watch us all be proven wrong and they announce CLT-NRT or something else unexpected.  Smile Wouldn't be the first time we'd all be surprised.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: US Airways In Asia In Near Future?

Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:38 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 47):
There is also the issue of premium cabin demand, which could be problematic for both PHX and LAS as both cities tend to be leisure oriented destinations.

Very true. But I read on A.net (so it's credibility is suspect) that international passengers to LAS are higher yield than domestic passengers. Is that true?