Byrdluvs747
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787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:08 am

I'm wondering what the effects of a BA 787 would be. Would a BA order influence other airlines?

Am I placing too much emphasis on BA? If so, what airline would be a more important 787 customer?
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ClassicLover
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:25 am

I think all airlines are important to have orders from. The more the merrier Boeing would be!

However, I guess there is a certain prestige to landing some more of the "blue chip" carriers, like Singapore Airlines, Qantas, Cathay Pacific, British Airways and the like...

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N79969
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:29 am

I think the B787 promising sales figures make the existence of the a bellweather customer less important. By all indications, Boeing has quite a bit of forward momentum already. The 787 customer base is fairly diverse.

Of course, BA is one of the world's leading airlines and a big order would serve as big feather in Boeing's cap.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:31 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Thread starter):
I'm wondering what the effects of a BA 787 would be.

If it's a big order, then it will be important.

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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:47 am

I would suggest that a BA order for the 747ADv or A380 would be far more important to these programmes, than one for the 787 which is likely to be a massive success anyway.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:49 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 2):
Of course, BA is one of the world's leading airlines and a big order would serve as big feather in Boeing's cap.



Quoting Wrighbrothers (Reply 3):
If it's a big order, then it will be important.

I think you both are right. I'm sure that when BA gets around to ordering their B-767-300ER replacements, both Airbus, with the A-350 and Boeing with the B787 will be right there competing hard for the sale.

But, today I believe that BA will begin ordering B-787-800/900s in 2008-2009 to replace the B-767-300ERs. I also think they will order the B-747-ADV, about that same time to begin replacing the B-747-400s.

Maybe sometime around 2012 they will begin ordering the B-787-10 to begin replacing the B-777-200/200ERs they took delievery of in the mid to late '90s, unless there is a good deal on the B-777-200LR.

Around 2008, AA will begin to order the B-787-300 to replace the A-300-600Rs. That will be AA's first B-787 order.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:58 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
both Airbus, with the A-350 and Boeing with the B787 will be right there competing hard for the sale.

You bet, but IMHO, BA will go for the B787, However, I think it will be a mix of short haul 787-3's and Long Haul 787-9's.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
also think they will order the B-747-ADV, about that same time to begin replacing the B-747-400s.

Yes, but not untill the 2010 mark, then the oldest 744 will be 20-21 years old, then the replacement will be a valid one , if you get what i'm saying.

BA's first priority is to replace the 767's, and I personaly think they'll go boeing, but Airbus will fight hard.

744 replaqcement- 747ADV around , 2010-2015
767 replacement- 787-3's ( S.H) and 787-9's ( L/H) , around , 2007-2010
777 replacemnet- 777 LR/300, OR 787-10. around , 2008-2010.


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Byrdluvs747
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 3:19 am

Hmmm. I forgot that BA won't be ordering for a few years. So Boeing needs to put heavy pressure on SQ and/or CX.

My thinking was that if Boeing could land a BA or SQ order, that would create a psychological avalanche where it would be perceived that the world's elite airlines were ordering the 787 and other airlines would want to follow.

If Boeing could land BA(which is highly likely) and another major like SQ or CX(also possible) would that be enough to relegate the A350 to bridesmaid status?

Boeing has CO, NW, AA, and most likely UA already, so most of the us is in Boeing's hands.

Thoughts?


** Disclaimer: Yes, I favor the 787 over the A350. The 747 over the A380 and the 777 over the A330/A340. **
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 3:39 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
My thinking was that if Boeing could land a BA or SQ order, that would create a psychological avalanche where it would be perceived that the world's elite airlines were ordering the 787 and other airlines would want to follow.

And I thought the 787 was a so much better plane than the A350 it didn't need that psychological things...  Wink
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 3:45 am

When BA order a big number of 787, then this order is surely a important order. The question is, if an order from BA will affect the aviation industries and other airlines follow BA.
Maybe the coming QF order shows which aircraft other Oneworld-Member will order.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 6:02 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
My thinking was that if Boeing could land a BA or SQ order, that would create a psychological avalanche where it would be perceived that the world's elite airlines were ordering the 787 and other airlines would want to follow.

I wouldn't say it would be psychological. Airlines don't order planes because some elite airline did. Airlines just order planes because they suit their needs.

As far as how important a BA order would be, Boeing just wants more orders, whether the orders come from BA or some small, middle-of-nowhere airline. If BA did order some 787s, it would certainly boost the morale of the 787 program, but it wouldn't start a psychological avalanche of orders. I do not see BA ordering the aircraft until after the plane enters commercial service.

Just my  twocents  ,
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 6:10 am

I don't think it matters as BA are not a launch customer or are in the early round of customers.

In the long term, I feel BA are more likely to order versions of the 787 over the A350.

Whilst it appears the A350 will be a superb aircraft, the reduced capacity of the 787-3 will appeal to BA for the euro short hauls whilst 787-8/9 will be work fine for the longer thin routes served by the 763 today.

The A350 will be a superb plane, but just a bit too much of a plane for BA's short haul european flights that the 763 is used on today.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:31 am

Of course it will be important for Boeing to win a 787 order by a prestigious airline as BA , but if they won't get it , doesn't really matter , since this programm will be a success.Do not forget , as soon as the American airlines will recover the health , be sure they will order a huge number of 787s.
BA or not , the 787 will reach very soon the 1000 units sold.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:35 am

As far as psychological/PR values go, I would say that a A350 order from BA would be a bigger victory for Airbus in terms of morale than a 787 order would be for Boeing. It would represent an entry to BA's widebody fleet which is all Boeing.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:46 am

I think BA is one of the airlines Boeing really wants to sell the 787 to, both for the revenues and for the boost it would give the program. But it's the same for all the major airlines.

What I would like to know: Has BA put down their refundable deposits for some slots? My bet is yes, along with QF, CX, SQ and a lot of other airlines.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:55 am

I think the order is more tied to whether or not LHR is opened up. BA will probably use this aircraft for opening up more point-to-point. They casn go on the offensive and not worry about adding larger aircraft to protect their major routes in and out of LHR. If it's opened up, I would go on record that they would reluctantly order the A380 to maximize those flights with the added capacity. Other carriers are way more important to the market for this aircraft right now.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 8:05 am

I don't think BA under Willie Walsh will go for the 787. He's distinctly pro-Airbus and I think Airbus would likely give a better deal on A350 than Boeing would on 787. This is purely because the B787 is more or less guaranteed to be a runaway success whereas its early days for the A350. Engine choice will also be a factor as BA are none too keen on GE after the non ER 772s.

This is all a few years down the track anyway. The 767 fleet will be around for a while yet after the "dusk" cabin upgrade.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 8:17 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 16):
I don't think BA under Willie Walsh will go for the 787. He's distinctly pro-Airbus and I think Airbus would likely give a better deal on A350 than Boeing would on 787.

Where did that come from?! How in the world can you say he is pro-Airbus? I suppose you could say he helped convert EI to an all-Airbus fleet, but this certainly doesn't make him pro-Airbus. Even if he was, I am sure he would be open to the 787.

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 16):
Engine choice will also be a factor as BA are none too keen on GE after the non ER 772s.

Please clarify this. A lot of their 777ERs are GE-powered, and if they didn't power their 787s with GE, then they would just power them with RR.

[Edited 2005-11-02 00:18:57]
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 8:31 am

Ah yes, BA...
Airbus Short Haul
Boeing Long Haul

Hence why IMO you'll never ever see an A380 in BA c/s
The 777 and 747 is much better for BA than the Uglybus.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 10:34 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 16):
I don't think BA under Willie Walsh will go for the 787. He's distinctly pro-Airbus and I think Airbus would likely give a better deal on A350 than Boeing would on 787. This is purely because the B787 is more or less guaranteed to be a runaway success whereas its early days for the A350. Engine choice will also be a factor as BA are none too keen on GE after the non ER 772s.

Of course Willie Walsh is also pro-GE. Anyway what does engine choice have to do with the 787 versus A350 debate?
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 10:45 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 13):
I would say that a A350 order from BA would be a bigger victory for Airbus in terms of morale than a 787 order would be for Boeing.

I agree that it would be a big victory for Airbus if BA chose the A350. However, I think the victory will be bigger for Boeing as it would begin to cement the A350 into the runner up status.

Given the number of major global airlines, I would say Boeing would only need to secure BA, SQ and CX for a virtual blowout of the A350.

AA - Virtually guaranteed as a 787 customer
AC - Locked in
AI - Locked in
AT - Letter of intent
BA - Highly likely to order
CA - Locked in
CO - Locked in
CX - Dead heat between the 787 and A350.
CZ - Locked in
ET - Locked in
FI - Locked in
GA - Locked in
HA - Very good candidate given Boeings financing involvement
KE - Locked in
LO - Locked in
MU - Locked in
NH - Locked in
NW - Locked in
NZ - Locked in
QF - Very close to a deal
SQ - Boeing looks good here.
SU - Good possibility
UA - Likely to order once financially able.

Whether intentional or not, Boeing seemed to use the "Sell a few to many" strategy which locks Airbus out of many carriers with a minimal amount of aircraft.

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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:19 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 20):
I would say Boeing would only need to secure BA, SQ and CX for a virtual blowout of the A350.

Knowing SQ, they will probably order both the 787 and the A350.
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squared
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:22 am

A BA order would certainly be a prestigious one.

But, traditionally SQ has been the order to get. SQ is known for its extremely shrewd aircraft selection, and is certainly influential among some of its Asian peers. Although some of that influence has waned, one cannot simply discount the SIA factor...

SQuared
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:34 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
** Disclaimer: Yes, I favor the 787 over the A350. The 747 over the A380 and the 777 over the A330/A340. **

Gee, what a suprise...lol

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
Boeing has CO, NW, AA, and most likely UA already, so most of the us is in Boeing's hands.

No sure if B has AA and UA on a B787 order...unless you know something we don't.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
If Boeing could land BA(which is highly likely) and another major like SQ or CX(also possible) would that be enough to relegate the A350 to bridesmaid status?

I think it's already a bridesmaid thus far.... more 787 orders will make the A330 on steroids (A350) a flower girl.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
My thinking was that if Boeing could land a BA or SQ order, that would create a psychological avalanche where it would be perceived that the world's elite airlines were ordering the 787 and other airlines would want to follow.

You're absolutely right. Throw AA and UA in the mix and wallaaa.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:36 am

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 4):
I would suggest that a BA order for the 747ADv or A380 would be far more important to these programmes, than one for the 787

I agree with the above, but when an airline the size of BA orders an aircraft model, it's not likely to be 2 or 6 frames, but dozens. So an order from BA would certainly be important to Boeing just for the sheer numbers.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:40 am

Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 21):
Knowing SQ, they will probably order both the 787 and the A350.

That should be EK, not SQ, right?  Smile

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squared
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:45 am

Quoting SNATH (Reply 25):
That should be EK, not SQ, right?

SQ ordered both the 757 and the A310, to test them out. Ultimately the A310 won out, because SQ found that its custumers preferred widebodies. Could be a similar case with the A350 and B787.

SQuared

[Edited 2005-11-02 03:46:17]

[Edited 2005-11-02 03:46:52]
 
SNATH
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 1:10 pm

Quoting SQuared (Reply 26):
SQ ordered both the 757 and the A310, to test them out. Ultimately the A310 won out, because SQ found that its custumers preferred widebodies. Could be a similar case with the A350 and B787.

Oh, I see. I knew that SQ had B757s but I didn't know they got them to test them against the A310. Thanks...

Tony
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:06 pm

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 23):
No sure if B has AA and UA on a B787 order

True, there's no AA order for the 787 yet. However, I think it's highly unlikely we'll see AA run to Airbus for their next widebody order. The two are not on the best terms after flight 587, and AA still has some airframe commitments to Boeing. Also, AA want's to be Airbus-free and get rid of their A300's as soon as possible.

As far as I'm concerned AA = Boeing.

With regards to UA widebodies, they're a Boeing airline as well. I can't see them running to sign a big Airbus order either. In fact, one could argue that as a financial backer of UA, GE would like to see an order for the 787 to ensure the success of the program, aka engine sales.

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 23):
more 787 orders will make the A330 on steroids (A350) a flower girl.

I won't be satisfied until it's an old maid in the audience.  Wink

Quoting ER757 (Reply 24):
but when an airline the size of BA orders an aircraft model, it's not likely to be 2 or 6 frames, but dozens.

Dozens? Well, BA only has 21 763's, so I don't think any 787 order will be staggering in quantity. We'll probably see some firm number in addition to options.
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vincewy
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:19 pm

Wouldn't 787 be too small for BA's long haul operations out of LHR? If BA ever needs them, it'd be short range versions, intra-EU flights, OR long haul leisure flights out of LGW, I would've thought 773/ER will be more likely.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 21):
Knowing SQ, they will probably order both the 787 and the A350.

I'm really not sure if that would be a good move for SQ. The 787 will have commonality with the 777 and, even though they have the A345 in their fleet, it would be more economical to buy 787s since they have well over 50 777s and are getting 19 more -300ERs.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 4:13 pm

Quoting DistantHorizon (Reply 8):
And I thought the 787 was a so much better plane than the A350 it didn't need that psychological things...

Aside from the flamebait comment, the fact is that having two manufacturers means that weaker aircraft will get more orders than they deserve while stronger aircraft will get less, simply due to some carriers/governments wanting to keep them in check, so to speak.

Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 10):
I wouldn't say it would be psychological. Airlines don't order planes because some elite airline did. Airlines just order planes because they suit their needs.

Probably a little of both, particularly with a plane like the 787 that seems to be a completely new technology for the airlines. I'm a Boeing supporter, but even I have this gnawing feeling that surprises could be in store for the production and maintenance of this aircraft. Not based on anything other than my natural pessimistic self  Smile.

I would think having an SQ order it would be a big statement.

Quoting N79969 (Reply 13):
As far as psychological/PR values go, I would say that a A350 order from BA would be a bigger victory for Airbus in terms of morale than a 787 order would be for Boeing. It would represent an entry to BA's widebody fleet which is all Boeing.

Agreed.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 28):
With regards to UA widebodies, they're a Boeing airline as well. I can't see them running to sign a big Airbus order either. In fact, one could argue that as a financial backer of UA, GE would like to see an order for the 787 to ensure the success of the program, aka engine sales.

I don't get the whole UA is Boeing for widebodies thing. While they currently have 747-767-777, they had a large fleet of DC10's and also have a very large fleet of A32X's. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that in 10 years time the fleet is A358/A359 with perhaps a new A300/A310 replacement from Airbus filling the smaller role. Who knows - certainly no one here.

In fact, BA could very well go the A350 route as well. It might entail less risk, be less expensive (discounts**wink wink**), and might be combined with an A380 order as well. Again, who knows?

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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 4:28 pm

I think Boeing would really welcome BA to its 787 customer list.

Or LH, AF, KLM, SAS, IB, AA, UA, DL, SQ, MH, CX, QF, EK for that matter..
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 4:42 pm

BA would be considered a strategic order for Boeing. Boeing needs strong airlines on every continent to order the airplane, and currently no blue chip airlines in the EU have purchased.

Personally, whilst Boeing would love to land LH or AF/KLM as a customer, none are as strategic as BA, whilst LH or AF/KLM would have to be considered a EU strategic order for Airbus.

If BA were to order the A350 before LH or AF, then these two airlines would see a no glove battle between Boeing and Airbus for their mid size fleet orders.

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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:55 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 20):

AA - Virtually guaranteed as a 787 customer
AC - Locked in
AI - Locked in
AT - Letter of intent
BA - Highly likely to order
CA - Locked in
CO - Locked in
CX - Dead heat between the 787 and A350.
CZ - Locked in
ET - Locked in
FI - Locked in
GA - Locked in
HA - Very good candidate given Boeings financing involvement
KE - Locked in
LO - Locked in
MU - Locked in
NH - Locked in
NW - Locked in
NZ - Locked in
QF - Very close to a deal
SQ - Boeing looks good here.
SU - Good possibility
UA - Likely to order once financially able.

I dont mind you speculating, may I have a go aswell?

AA- speculation, based on buy American because its American
AC- cancelled, likely to reorder
AI-  checkmark 
AT-  checkmark 
BA- Boeing as much likely as Airbus
CA- expect the A350 aswell in their fleet
CO- never been a competition
CX- Boeing as much likely as Airbus
CZ- see CA
ET-  checkmark 
FI- who?
GA-  checkmark 
HA- have they got money to order anything?
KE-  checkmark  they've ordered any widebody (apart from the 767 and A340), A350 is not ruled out.
LO-  checkmark 
MU- see CA and CZ
NW-  checkmark 
NZ-  checkmark 
QF- very close to a deal, but nobody on here knows with whom
SQ- Boeing looks good here? Airlines dont buy aircraft for their looks.
SU- we'll know tomorrow
UA-  checkmark 


Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 20):
Whether intentional or not, Boeing seemed to use the "Sell a few to many" strategy which locks Airbus out of many carriers with a minimal amount of aircraft.

To date there are about 440 order and commitments in total for both aircraft. Wasn't the predicted market for this aircraft size roughly 3000?

Quoting N79969 (Reply 13):
As far as psychological/PR values go, I would say that a A350 order from BA would be a bigger victory for Airbus in terms of morale than a 787 order would be for Boeing.

Very true, nearly as big as a 787 order from LH would be for Boeing.

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 30):
The 787 will have commonality with the 777 and, even though they have the A345 in their fleet, it would be more economical to buy 787s since they have well over 50 777s and are getting 19 more -300ERs.

They'll have the A380 aswell in their fleet, depending on how big the order would be for either the A350 or 787, the commonality factor can be minimalized. Besides the 787 will be a whole new aircraft and share nothing with the 777's, apart from the flightdeck IIRC.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 9:35 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 31):
I'm a Boeing supporter, but even I have this gnawing feeling that surprises could be in store for the production and maintenance of this aircraft

Yes indeed.
Theres a lot of new manufacturing processes and logistics to be put in place on what is quite a tight schedule. Dont think we will see any full scale disasters but a few hiccups here and there would not be suprising on a project of this scale (just ask any A380 engineer).


Cheers,
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 10:11 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 20):
I agree that it would be a big victory for Airbus if BA chose the A350. However, I think the victory will be bigger for Boeing as it would begin to cement the A350 into the runner up status.

This is a good point. I think it would take BA + 2-3 other signficant European 787 orders before Boeing would be able to claim dominance.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 2:09 am

Since the 787-10 is still just speculation, I think BA will order a bunch of 787-3s for the high density European routes but I wouldn't rule out an A350-8/9 order to replace the oldest 777s and longhaul 767s on thinner point to point routes. As far as the 747s and A380 go, I don't think the 747adv is competing against the A380 for BAs 744 replacement. I think it's the 773ER competing against the 747adv. It's totally up to BA to figure out which aircraft suits them better. Same goes for the A380, if BA decides they need a 550 seat aircraft then they will order it.
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jacobin777
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 3:13 am

Quoting SQuared (Reply 26):
Ultimately the A310 won out, because SQ found that its custumers preferred widebodies. Could be a similar case with the A350 and B787.

the A310 and B757 case really can't be used here as the B787 and A350 are both widebodies..

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 31):

I don't get the whole UA is Boeing for widebodies thing. While they currently have 747-767-777, they had a large fleet of DC10's and also have a very large fleet of A32X's. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that in 10 years time the fleet is A358/A359 with perhaps a new A300/A310 replacement from Airbus filling the smaller role. Who knows - certainly no one here.

you may be correct in theory, but I think on a practical level, I see UA sticking with an all-Boeing widebody fleet and an all-Airbus short body fleet...I think we'll see UA purchasing some 747ADV if they want to expand...

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):
They'll have the A380 aswell in their fleet, depending on how big the order would be for either the A350 or 787, the commonality factor can be minimalized. Besides the 787 will be a whole new aircraft and share nothing with the 777's, apart from the flightdeck IIRC.

Manni, you list was quite nice  thumbusp but I have to disagree with the statement above...

According to Boeing's Baseler..

"For instance, even though it may look a little different, the 787 flight deck operates just like the flight deck on a 777. It will take as few as five days of training for 777 pilots to qualify as 787 pilots. The pilot pool for operators of 777 / 787 mixed fleets will be the same."

so basically cross-training won't be a problem one bit...and as Baseler stated, the cockpit pool could be large, as well as mixed..which would bode well for a carrier like SQ..but it will be a good battle between the two aircrafts!

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 37):
Since the 787-10 is still just speculation, I think BA will order a bunch of 787-3s for the high density European routes but I wouldn't rule out an A350-8/9 order to replace the oldest 777s and longhaul 767s on thinner point to point routes. As far as the 747s and A380 go, I don't think the 747adv is competing against the A380 for BAs 744 replacement. I think it's the 773ER competing against the 747adv. It's totally up to BA to figure out which aircraft suits them better. Same goes for the A380, if BA decides they need a 550 seat aircraft then they will order it.

Walsh as already stated that if (big if here) BA purchased the A380, it would only be a dozen or so...thats about it....so far it seems the feeling one gets form Walsh's comments is that BA is looking into the 747ADV before the A380.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 3:57 am

I think it's more important for BA to order the B787 to keep A and B competing with each other, than it is for Boeing to have BA buy the B787. If BA gets branded as an Airbus-only customer, it'll be hard for them to get good prices from Airbus. I know BA is a long way away from that happening, but if they phase out B737s in favor of A320s and buy A350, the direction will be clear. Add an A380 purchase to that, and I don't think Boeing will answer the phone when they ring!
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 4:42 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 39):
I think it's more important for BA to order the B787 to keep A and B competing with each other, than it is for Boeing to have BA buy the B787. If BA gets branded as an Airbus-only customer, it'll be hard for them to get good prices from Airbus. I know BA is a long way away from that happening, but if they phase out B737s in favor of A320s and buy A350, the direction will be clear. Add an A380 purchase to that, and I don't think Boeing will answer the phone when they ring!

Boeing, just like any other commercial aircraft manufacturer will answer the phone to anybody with the money to buy an aircraft and I mean anybody.
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 6:36 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

I dont mind you speculating, may I have a go aswell?

AA- speculation, based on buy American because its American

No it's becuase AA has no love for Airbus. Look at their fleet simplification plan. There's a reason it doesn't include Airbus.

AA -  checkmark  checkmark 

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

AC- cancelled, likely to reorder

Yup, the deal is back on. A346's out B777's/B787's in.

AC -  checkmark 

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

BA- Boeing as much likely as Airbus

Sure Airbus has a chance, but the fact that BA is a 767/777 operator gives Boeing better odds.

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

CA- expect the A350 aswell in their fleet
CZ- see CA
MU- see CZ

Where's the order?

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

CO- never been a competition

Damned right.

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

CX- Boeing as much likely as Airbus

Is CX still suffering from that nasty A346 aftertaste?

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

FI- who?

Icelandair.  checkmark 

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

HA- have they got money to order anything?

With Boeing financing their 763's, you can bet that the 787 is in their future. Hawaiian was looking for an additional 767 not too long ago.

HA -  checkmark 

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

KE- they've ordered any widebody (apart from the 767 and A340), A350 is not ruled out.

Again, when will they place an order. Are they even looking at the A350 yet?

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

QF- very close to a deal, but nobody on here knows with whom

I just feel that Boeing is closer on this one than Airbus. I could be wrong, but that's my feeling.

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

SQ- Boeing looks good here? Airlines dont buy aircraft for their looks.

That's not what I was saying. Boeing's chances look good.

Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

SU- we'll know tomorrow

 crossfingers  For Boeing.

And if DL ever gets back in shape, I'd put them in Boeing's column also.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 10:03 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 16):
I don't think BA under Willie Walsh will go for the 787. He's distinctly pro-Airbus

I have read a significant number of times that Walsh (and hence from now on BA) are pro-Airbus. Is this just because Aer Lingus operate the A320 and A321 while BA only operates both of these types and the A319? Or have I missed something?
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 10:12 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 41):
No it's becuase AA has no love for Airbus. Look at their fleet simplification plan. There's a reason it doesn't include Airbus.

American Airlines acquired factory new A300s. However after the 2001 crash in New York, Airbus and American blamed each other for the accident and that created bad blood which will not go away anytime soon.
 
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 10:52 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 42):
I have read a significant number of times that Walsh (and hence from now on BA) are pro-Airbus. Is this just because Aer Lingus operate the A320 and A321 while BA only operates both of these types and the A319? Or have I missed something?

Walsh's job was to get the fleet intact, and Airbus had provided EI the best combinations and deals...it doesn't have to do with the fact Walsh is an "Airbus" lover.

Not to mention, Walsh was under the wing (no pun intended) of Rod Eddington, and Eddington has been a big widebody Boeing fan for years, so I'm sure that's been some influence on Walsh.

Finally, from Walsh's own words, it seems as if BA is looking at the 747ADV as much as the A380, and if anything, Walsh has specifically said that BA would only purchase a dozen or so A380's for some routes, if BA decide to purchase some of them in the first place.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 11:54 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 41):
Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

CO- never been a competition

Damned right.

You're missing the point. Did it ever cross your mind that the former CEO of Continental (the one in charge when they commited to the 787) was an ex Boeing employee?

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 41):
No it's becuase AA has no love for Airbus. Look at their fleet simplification plan. There's a reason it doesn't include Airbus.

Using your logic, Boeing should rule out AY, SK, LX, IB, TP, EI, SN, LH, BM, etc. as far as the 787 is concerned.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 41):
Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

HA- have they got money to order anything?

With Boeing financing their 763's, you can bet that the 787 is in their future. Hawaiian was looking for an additional 767 not too long ago.

HA - checkmark

But, using your words  Wink , were's the order?

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 41):
Quoting Manni (Reply 34):

SQ- Boeing looks good here? Airlines dont buy aircraft for their looks.

That's not what I was saying. Boeing's chances look good.

But, again, were's the order?

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 41):
And if DL ever gets back in shape, I'd put them in Boeing's column also.

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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Fri Nov 04, 2005 1:22 am

Quoting SQuared (Reply 22):
But, traditionally SQ has been the order to get. SQ is known for its extremely shrewd aircraft selection, and is certainly influential among some of its Asian peers. Although some of that influence has waned, one cannot simply discount the SIA factor...

Ditto QF incidentally.

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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Fri Nov 04, 2005 7:43 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 44):
Walsh's job was to get the fleet intact, and Airbus had provided EI the best combinations and deals...it doesn't have to do with the fact Walsh is an "Airbus" lover.

I agree 100%, Jacobin777. Walsh is a smart airline CEO. He will go for the best plane for BA. I know he will be open to listen and negociate with both sides.

I do not believe BA will place an order for a least a year if not longer. Their 767s still have quite some time left on them. The same applies for the 747s. I sure BA is thinking about which planes they will order when these two pass their time, but they won't go public with any information for a while. All we can do is...

...wait.  optimist 

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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Fri Nov 04, 2005 8:31 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 28):
In fact, one could argue that as a financial backer of UA, GE would like to see an order for the 787 to ensure the success of the program, aka engine sales.

GE is also offered on A350, so the engines by themselves don't guarantee the sale of particular frame in this case.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 28):
I won't be satisfied until it's an old maid in the audience.

Keep dreaming... 140 orders + another 64 on the way*... The 787 will have the majority of the market, but only because its smallest frame is 220 seater and has the market to itself...

*) Yes, Emirates will order A350, since so far Boeing did not make a formal offer on 787-10.
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RE: 787:How Important Is A BA Order?

Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:03 pm

My guess right now is that BA will likely order the 787-8 either in 2006 or 2007 to replace the 767-300's powered by Trent 1000 engines. With the new EU/US air rights agreement coming very soon, BA will likely use the 788 on routes from LHR to smaller American cities.

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