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1337Delta764
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Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 10:56 am

I'm wondering, what are the chances of Delta ordering 787s if they exit bankruptcy?

I think they may order 787-3s to pick up the capacity lost by sending 8 767-400s to international destinations and retiring the 767-200s. I am unsure of what engine they would pick, as a significant amount of 767s are GE powered, while the 777s are RR powered. For some unknown reason, I am leaning toward GE.
The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
 
Delta4eva
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:01 am

I don't think there is much question of if DL will order the 787, but when. Also, I expect them to order the 787-8 for long haul before the 787-3. DL is committed to flying more internationally, and I think they could find quite a few Asian destinations from ATL and JFK with the 787-8. I'd expect to see them pick GE because of the amount of money GE has given to DL for their restructuring.
FLY DELTA JETS
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:02 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
I'm wondering, what are the chances of Delta ordering 787s if they exit bankruptcy?

It's all but inevitable at some point, so long as DL survives. In the near future, it simply isn't in the picture.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:03 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 2):
In the near future, it simply isn't in the picture.

Depends on if they can spin off Comair.
 
Delta4eva
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:06 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 3):
Depends on if they can spin off Comair

Care to elaborate??
FLY DELTA JETS
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:08 am

Quoting Delta4eva (Reply 4):
Care to elaborate??

Nope.
 
Btriple7
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:17 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
I'm wondering, what are the chances of Delta ordering 787s if they exit bankruptcy?

Delta will have to do much more than just come out of bankruptcy before they buy aircraft.
Just...fly.
 
Alitalia744
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:30 am

Quoting Btriple7 (Reply 6):
Delta will have to do much more than just come out of bankruptcy before they buy aircraft.

Don't be so surprised if you see a 787 order w/i 2 years. Also, expect GE engines.

Comair - everyone will know more soon.
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
cslusarc
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 11:37 am

I expect DL to order the 787s within 12 months after exiting CH 11 By then, there will be more 787 orders, limiting DL to acquiring delivery slots into 2013 and beyond. [Note: I expect an average of 10 787 orders per month from now until the 787 enters into revenue service.]
--cslusarc from YWG
 
kaitak744
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 1:27 pm

Quoting Cslusarc (Reply 8):
[Note: I expect an average of 10 787 orders per month from now until the 787 enters into revenue service.]

Seems rather low. Even with current situations.
 
positiverate
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 1:30 pm

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 7):
Comair - everyone will know more soon.

No surprise that deal is coming...

Regarding the 787, the other posters are right. This airplane is right up a restructured DL's alley. I also wonder if they make a foray into the 737-700 market; it would seem like a good fit to replace the -200's (albeit a little more capacity).
 
rwsea
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 3:10 pm

I think DL will definitely order the 787, to replace the 763/764/777. I think the 777/763 would go first and the 764 would probably be the last to go.

I also agree with the prior poster that the 73G might be a good plane for them to consider, especially with all the recent expansion in Latin America. The planes could also fly from CVG-West Coast or on short hops in the east.
 
cslusarc
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 4:13 pm

[quote=I also wonder if they make a foray into the 737-700 market; it would seem like a good fit to replace the -200's (albeit a little more capacity).[/quote]

I don't think that DL needs the 73G. There is a limited market (to South America for example) which DL could use a small number of 73Gs. Other than that DL is better off flying the 738 and MD-90 as their near 150 seat capacity delivers lower CASM.

I however think that DL would consider the 95-99 seat airplane, such as the EMB-195s or Bombardier C110s.
--cslusarc from YWG
 
manni
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Wed Nov 02, 2005 8:01 pm

Sure, by the time Delta can afford the 787, there will be some great deals on the secondhand market for this aircraft, if only Gulf Air could order a couple 787s first.  Wink

Delta employees on here dont be offended, it's al in the name of fun.
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 3:03 am

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 11):
I think DL will definitely order the 787, to replace the 763/764/777. I think the 777/763 would go first and the 764 would probably be the last to go.

Why would Delta replace a young fleet? The 787 could be simply added to the fleet (a la Continental) for international expansion, and may replace the 767-200 and 767-300 (non-ER).

[Edited 2005-11-02 19:04:18]
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 3:16 am

Sorry to bump, but here is my dream fleet for Delta:


  • Boeing 737-700 (replace 737-200/300)
  • Boeing 737-800 (replace MD-88/MD-90)
  • Boeing 757-200
  • Boeing 767-300ER
  • Boeing 767-400ER
  • Boeing 777-200ER
  • Boeing 787-3 (replace 767-200 and 767-300 non-ER)
  • Boeing 787-8 (for international expansion)
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rwsea
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 3:20 am

Well by the time they start getting the 787s towards the end of the decade, the 763's will be starting to get old. They could start retiring the old ones and moving the newer ones to domestic, and putting the 787s on international.

And it makes sense to phase out the 777s as there would still be a good used market for them, and DL apparently doesn't have plans to get any more of them so it would be wise from a fleet mix perspective. Consolidating 767/777 with the 787 over time will save them lots of $$ in terms of maintenance and training, plus the new fleet will be much more fuel efficient.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 3:23 am

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 16):
And it makes sense to phase out the 777s as there would still be a good used market for them, and DL apparently doesn't have plans to get any more of them so it would be wise from a fleet mix perspective. Consolidating 767/777 with the 787 over time will save them lots of $$ in terms of maintenance and training, plus the new fleet will be much more fuel efficient.

Delta has 5 777s on order, and has 20 as options.
The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 3:30 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 15):
Boeing 737-700 (replace 737-200/300)

Boeing 737-800 (replace MD-88/MD-90)

Boeing 757-200

Boeing 767-300ER

Boeing 767-400ER

Boeing 777-200ER

Boeing 787-3 (replace 767-200 and 767-300 non-ER)

Boeing 787-8 (for international expansion)

737-700
737-800
787-300
787-800

ERJ's for the regionals.
 
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United787
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 4:23 am

Does anyone think that DL will even look at the A350?
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 4:25 am

Quoting United787 (Reply 19):
Does anyone think that DL will even look at the A350?

Only as a measure to get Boeing to make them a better deal on the 787s, at most.
 
akelley728
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 4:27 am

Quoting United787 (Reply 19):
Does anyone think that DL will even look at the A350?

Nope
 
whitehatter
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 4:58 am

Quoting United787 (Reply 19):
Does anyone think that DL will even look at the A350?

ignore all the eminent expert opinions from the cheerleaders.

DL would indeed look at the A350 if it fitted their requirements, and if Airbus could broker them a finance deal after bankruptcy which didn't have any ruinous rates demanded elsewhere.

Delta, if it survives (which is by no means certain) will be wounded by all its debt and defaults following Chapter 11, so any fleet renewal will be difficult to arrange. Airbus are remarkably good at brokering financing and closing deals, and GECAS could be a third partner with their A350 input.
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jetdeltamsy
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 5:02 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 3):
Depends on if they can spin off Comair.

Spinning off Comair would not influence the decision to purchaset the 787. Comair isn't worth nearly as much as it was 5 years ago. Delta could probably only fetch a few hundred million dollars for the unit. Any substantial purchase of the 787 would be a multi-billion dollar committment.
Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
klkla
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 5:06 am

I think there is a good chance of Delta being the U.S. launch customer for the 787-3 after they exit from bankruptcy. Their non ER 767-300's are coming up on twenty years and will need to be replaced as soon as possible. The 787-8 would be a natural replacement for 767-300ER and 787-9 would be a natural replacement for the 767-400ER (Although probably less of a priority because they're only 5-6 years old now).
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 5:08 am

Quoting Klkla (Reply 24):
I think there is a good chance of Delta being the U.S. launch customer for the 787-3 after they exit from bankruptcy. Their non ER 767-300's are coming up on twenty years and will need to be replaced as soon as possible. The 787-8 would be a natural replacement for 767-300ER and 787-9 would be a natural replacement for the 767-400ER (Although probably less of a priority because they're only 5-6 years old now).

Maybe if the 787-10X comes to life, Delta could order some to replace the 777 as some are claiming.
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WINGS
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 5:25 am

Quoting United787 (Reply 19):
Does anyone think that DL will even look at the A350?

I sure hope so. If Deltas management are smart enough they will look for their best options. Even if its only to slash some number on the price tag.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 20):


Only as a measure to get Boeing to make them a better deal on the 787s, at most.

I too suspect this. Who knows Airbus might even be able to provide a very attractive deal to Delta.

Quoting Klkla (Reply 24):
I think there is a good chance of Delta being the U.S. launch customer for the 787-3 after they exit from bankruptcy.

People don't expect to see many B787-300 orders. Due to its lack of range, airlines would be very limited if they were to need a long haul aircraft in a hurry. I would lean towards the B788 as the perfect option.

I also don't expect Qantas to order the B783 for this very same reason.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
HJAIA
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 5:25 am

Delta will always be a Boeing fleet, sorry Airbus. Also, all aircraft on order from Boeing have been deferred till DL comes out of bankruptcy.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 5:29 am

Didn't Delta have poor past experiences with Airbus (with the ex-PA A310s)?

BTW Delta doesn't need the 787-8's range on the 767-200 and 767-300 (non-ER) domestic routes.

[Edited 2005-11-02 21:31:42]
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 6:03 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 28):
Didn't Delta have poor past experiences with Airbus (with the ex-PA A310s)?

No they did not. They got rid of them because it was better for DL to have one type (767) fly the routes more efficiently. And since they had more 767s, they opted to keep those.

But to answer the question: if (and that's a big IF) Delta survives Chapter 11, the chances of them ordering 787 are 99.99% .

[Edited 2005-11-02 22:27:52]
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whitehatter
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 6:30 am

Amazing how you all seem to think Chapter 11 is like a visit to the money fairy with all 'sins' wiped clean.

Just remember that lenders will remember the old maxim "once bitten, twice shy!". There is no way a reorganised DL will be in any state to buy anything for a long time as their credit will be dreadful. Any fleet expansion would be on leases and probably loaded with conditions and premiums (TW and the 717...), so all the cheerleading about seeing the 787 in DL colours is way too premature.

Try again in about 2010 when they might be able to order. Anything early would only be at a price and Airbus could offer a way out.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 6:44 am

BTW, the A350 doesn't come in the right sizes to fit into Delta's fleet. The smallest A350 is the size of a 767-400, and is too large to replace Delta's 767-300s. I am 100% sure Delta would prefer a more similarly-sized replacement for the 767-300s.
The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
 
klkla
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 6:50 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 25):
Maybe if the 787-10X comes to life, Delta could order some to replace the 777 as some are claiming.

Maybe so, but I don't think the 787-10 as being discussed now would have the same range as the 777ER.
 
klkla
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 6:54 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 26):
People don't expect to see many B787-300 orders. Due to its lack of range, airlines would be very limited if they were to need a long haul aircraft in a hurry. I would lean towards the B788 as the perfect option.

The 787-3 has nearly the exact same range as the 767-300 (non ER) but is much more full efficient and relatively inexpensive. The 787-8 would be too much plane for routes like ATL-MCO that Delta still has a need for larger aircraft. The -3 would be a better match for routes like these than the -8.
 
phollingsworth
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 7:03 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 29):
No they did not. They got rid of them because it was better for DL to have one type (767) fly the routes more efficiently. And since they had more 767s, they opted to keep those.

But to answer the question: if (and that's a big IF) Delta survives Chapter 11, the chances of them ordering 787 are 99.99% .

The ex PanAm A310s were not in the best of shape and several were -200s. However, DL did order and lease several new build A310-300s from Airbus. These aircraft performed reasonably well, though in the end they did not cost that much less to operate as compared to the payload range hit when compared to DLs 763ERs. Therefore, DL returned them at the end of their leases. This is where the animosity between DL and Airbus orignated. The return to leasor was a cluster. The funny thing is that DL ended up maintaining several of these aircraft for a few years after all A310s left the fleet.

When DL did their big order in the mid 1990s. The experience was still fresh in everyones mind. Further, Airbus did not offer an acceptable L1011-1/250 replacement for DL and Boeing was willing to design the 764 to DLs specifications.

Time has changed some of this. However, Airbus does not offer a good 763 replacement for DL, nor does either the A350 or the 787-8/9 make for a good replacement for DLs 764s and many of its 763ERs. They are just too limited in their ability to use DLs facilities at ATL.
 
startknob
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RE: Delta To Order 787 After Bankruptcy?

Thu Nov 03, 2005 8:25 am

When playing cat and mice it's imperative to know, who's the cat.

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