797
Topic Author
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Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 10:53 am

Hey guys,

As the other threads are going to get packed, I opened this one!

Well, the big new just popped, the all new 747-800!

So far two airlines have ordered this new beauty, but if we look closely, it could work pretty well for other airlines who want to replace their older 747s.

I don't know why, but the first airlines that came to my mind is BA and CX.

BA has a whole bunch of this ladies and it wouldn't be crazy to replace them with this new series. We also have to consider that we were thinking of BA as a possible A380 launcher, so why not a 748 launcher as well?

CX we know were waiting for the 747Adv, and I guess this is their time! Also we have to consider they are the Asian-Market, and as said in other threads, the 8 number is their lucky one!

Back to the point, I would expect these airlines to book some of the ladies:

BA, CX, SA, UA, IB, JL, KL, CA

Also, I wish to see these carriers working with:

AZ, NZ, AA, CO, DL, AV and I wouldn't mind VS flying it!

What do you guys think?

Regards!
Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
 
whitehatter
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 10:58 am

Quoting 797 (Thread starter):
BA has a whole bunch of this ladies and it wouldn't be crazy to replace them with this new series. We also have to consider that we were thinking of BA as a possible A380 launcher, so why not a 748 launcher as well?

British Airways will not like having the GEnx forced upon them. The GE90 fiasco helped ensure GE lost subsequent business for the CFM56 and GE90 with BA.

Forget Iberia. Forget Lufthansa. Delta? Are you joking? They need to survive first! Continental won't be interested as they plan around frequency with twins, same with American. United won't be buying anything for some time, and will be more in the market for big twins.

KLM and Air France might have a look as they use GE engines.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
797
Topic Author
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Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:51 am

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:08 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Forget Iberia

Ok.

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Forget Lufthansa

Never said it...

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Delta? Are you joking?

Actually, I said "I wish"

The airlines I said were potential buyers are BA, CX, SA, UA, IB, JL, KL, CA
Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
 
sq212
Posts: 263
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 6:14 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:10 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
British Airways will not like having the GEnx forced upon them. The GE90 fiasco helped ensure GE lost subsequent business for the CFM56 and GE90 with BA.

Are you saying that BA will not buy planes fitted with GE engines anymore?

Cheers

[Edited 2005-11-16 03:20:47]
 
Korg747
Posts: 502
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:17 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
British Airways will not like having the GEnx forced upon them. The GE90 fiasco helped ensure GE lost subsequent business for the CFM56 and GE90 with BA.

I see your posts toward Boeing and GE to be very Negative. Are you an engineer who deals with those GE-90s?
Please excuse my English!
 
AirRyan
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:21 am

I'm sure NW is or at least will be interested in 10-15 firm pax version within the next 2-5 years to replace their 747-400's based upon the savings in fuel costs alone with a new 747-800. NW is simply just drueling over the 787 and the new 748 will just be a more advanced and ecnomical version of an already highly successful platform for them - I'd be surprised if NW hasn't already discussed an order with Boeing even if they are in Ch11 - any deliveries wouldn't begin until 2009 and NW will be doing just fine by then having accepted the 787's beginning in 2008.

It would then only be logical for NW to covert their remaining 744's into frieghtors and than they would have a pretty sweet fleet of 74's as they have always done - NW has been there with the 747 since Day 1 and they were the the launch customer on the 744 - I wouldn't be suprised to see them announce to become a launch customer for the 748 with a delivery of around 2009/10 either.

With that said, I definately would see UA buy into some eventually, though perhaps not as soon as NW. The real question will be whether or not any other US legacy carrier buys some for pax service. I'd think British Airways, AirFrance, Qantas, and Lufthansa will all eventually buy some as well.

[Edited 2005-11-16 03:25:37]
 
797
Topic Author
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:29 am

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 5):
I don't see AA or DL opting for them I wouldn't be surprised if CO went for a few and started some new routes.

Yeah, I agree with you. I associate AA adn DL with the 787. CO seems to be a little bit more likely to get some 748s, it would be a good change!

Regz
Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
 
trex8
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:49 am

You are missing out CI who have 9 Pratt powered 744s ripe for replacement in the next few years (they don't want any "old" planes in the fleet after their 1992 742 crash and 10 years is getting to be old in their eyes) plus 21 744Fs which started delivery in 2000 only but by 2010 by their reckoning will be starting to be too old. Then there are the 4 recent GE powered 744s (probably without doubt the last passenger 744s to be built) they took delivery off in the last year which will need replacing in about 10 years also.
This assumes the Taiwanese govt have gotten over their petty squables with Boeing or CIs ownership finally gets totally privatized in which case they will have less say in the matter of what CI purchases (the last 4 744s and most of the 744Fs were purchased under pressure from the govt to balance CIs A340/330 purchases)
 
TinkerBelle
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 11:52 am

I think every airline that currently operates the 744 is a possibility here. I'm willing to bet my two cents that BA will order the 748 down the road when the time comes to replace their 744's.

Quoting Korg747 (Reply 4):
I see your posts toward Boeing and GE to be very Negative. Are you an engineer who deals with those GE-90s?

I wouldn't pay much attention to him, he rants about Boeing every opportunity he gets.

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Forget Lufthansa

Why is that? I think LH is a very high possibility considering their large 744 collection.

VS-I doubt it.

UA-Once they get out of BK.

NW-Sooner than later.

AF-KLM- Very likely.
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 12:02 pm

Quoting 797 (Reply 6):
Yeah, I agree with you. I associate AA adn DL with the 787. CO seems to be a little bit more likely to get some 748s, it would be a good change!

The only way CO would ever get the 748 would be if they were allowed to fly into LHR.

Then you'd see them order a fleet of 5 to cover EWR and IAH to LHR combined with EWR-NRT.

Otherwise, don't hold your breath.

Well, I guess another way would be for them to merge with UAL...  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
797
Topic Author
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 12:11 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):

The only way CO would ever get the 748 would be if they were allowed to fly into LHR.

Yeah! But there's also a chance of a replacement...who knows!

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):
Well, I guess another way would be for them to merge with UAL...

WOW!
Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
 
Ken777
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 12:37 pm

The odd chance out is QF for a few when they release their order plans, hopefully next month. If Boeing gets the deal I can see a handful of the 748s as insurance against the 380.
 
piercey
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 12:41 pm

BA - Yes, within 10
CX - Yes, within 10
SA - no idea, probably, though
UA - I give them launch of pax or at least one of the first five customers
IB - no, they are going Airbus, wich is a shame
JL - yes for both versions, another first five
KL/AF - another first five. They'll probably be one of the few airrlines using both 748 and A380s
CA - maybe
AZ - yeah right, they are in a worse situation then DL
NZ - yes, within 10
AA and DL - wouldn't fit route network
CO - wildcard, IMO, but they should make CLE a third major international hub first
AV - wildcard
VS - yes, within 10
SQ and QF - yes, within 10. Remember that there is a pax and maybe even a range differance between the 748 and the A380.
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
 
MarshalN
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:02 pm

Quoting Piercey (Reply 12):
no, they are going Airbus, wich is a shame

Why is it a shame except that maybe you're cheering for Boeing?

Quoting Piercey (Reply 12):
but they should make CLE a third major international hub first

I don't think CLE is really viable as an international hub. The airport isn't up for it, and between EWR and IAH -- I don't see the point of them having another hub. In fact, CLE's not that much of a domestic hub anymore.
 
United Airline
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:51 pm

Potential buyers: SA, BA, LH, KLM, AF (maybe), VS, UA, NW, AI, TG, SQ, MH, JAL, ANA, KE, CI, CA, QF, NZ, AC (maybe).

Quoting Piercey (Reply 12):
BA - Yes, within 10
CX - Yes, within 10
SA - no idea, probably, though
UA - I give them launch of pax or at least one of the first five customers
IB - no, they are going Airbus, wich is a shame
JL - yes for both versions, another first five
KL/AF - another first five. They'll probably be one of the few airrlines using both 748 and A380s
CA - maybe
AZ - yeah right, they are in a worse situation then DL
NZ - yes, within 10
AA and DL - wouldn't fit route network
CO - wildcard, IMO, but they should make CLE a third major international hub first
AV - wildcard
VS - yes, within 10
SQ and QF - yes, within 10. Remember that there is a pax and maybe even a range differance between the 748 and the A380.

These are initial orders I think. I am sure they will order more after sometime or place a large order
 
hz747300
Posts: 1911
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:02 pm

What about SV? I think they are a great candidate. The new president of Boeing KSA is ex-Saudi Arabian Airlines.

It will fall into place for the 748--now that airlines know it will be built.
Keep on truckin'...
 
Al319
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:08 pm

I think ANA will also be a likely candidate
“atom celled…jet propelled”
 
sq212
Posts: 263
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:11 pm

Quoting Al319 (Reply 16):
I think ANA will also be a likely candidate

PR a very likely candidate too.
 
TinkerBelle
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:13 pm

Quoting Al319 (Reply 16):
I think ANA will also be a likely candidate

'Nippon Cargo Airlines, based in Japan, has ordered eight 747-8 Freighters and will receive its first airplane in fourth-quarter 2009'.

That is a quote directly from the Boeing website. Not only are they a candidate, they ARE a launch customer for the freighter.
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
columba
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:12 pm

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 1):
Forget Lufthansa

Why ? Lufthansa loves their 747s and publicly stated interest in the 747Adv.
They need to fill the gap between A346 and A380.
Lufthansa´s future lies especially in the longhaul market since the German and European market is swept over with low cost carriers.
So I think that you´ll see them order the 747-8 before a 737, A320 or A306 replacement -which are due to replacement around 2012. But before they replace their continental fleet they wait and watch how the markets develops.

Regarding the longhaul market they are getting a huge competition from Emirates and other Asian and Middle Eastern carriers.
Mayrhuber Lufthansa´s CEO said in an interview this is their biggest challenge in the future and in order to compete with them they need to grow -shortly after that interview they bought Swiss.
In order to compete with Emirates, Ethiad and the others they need to offer a fair price on longhaul routes. Since the fuel prices are incredibly high they could need fuel efficient aircrafts like the 747-8.
I think they will order the 747-8 within the next two years as they need the delivery slots. Like with the A380 they will not be the first airline to order it but will not wait that long.
I could think that if they order the 747-8 and the first ones reaches the
fleet the 747-400s will be converted into freighters. Maybe they order some 747-8Fs as well or some 747-400F as they need the nose door to carry outsized cargo. Their largest competitioners in Europe Cargolux and Air France Cargo are flying the 747-400F so Lufthansa Cargo at some time will order 747 freighters, too. The question is if they are -8 or -400s.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
atmx2000
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:15 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 19):
Why ? Lufthansa loves their 747s and publicly stated interest in the 747Adv.

I think he thinks the lack of an RR engine is going to be an issue for them.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
columba
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:24 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 20):
I think he thinks the lack of an RR engine is going to be an issue for them.

No, because they order different engine types already as they want to be qualified in their maintenance. They want to offer maintenance service on as many engine and aircrafts types as possible because LH is making a lot of money with that as well.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
777ER
Crew
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:25 pm

NZ is apparantly seriously considering including the B748 in its big upcoming order that will include more B787 and B777 options being taken up. This order is expected soon. NZ1 and/or TG992 can go further with the order.
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NASOCEANA
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:38 pm

I think EK will place an order for maybe 10 frames. Mostly for cargo!
B777 greatest Airliner ever built!
 
manni
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:54 pm

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 18):
'Nippon Cargo Airlines, based in Japan, has ordered eight 747-8 Freighters and will receive its first airplane in fourth-quarter 2009'.

That is a quote directly from the Boeing website. Not only are they a candidate, they ARE a launch customer for the freighter.

NCA, Nippon Cargo Airlines
ANA All Nippon Airlines

Not only have they a diffrent name, they are 2 different airlines. ANA recently pulled out NCA. ANA operates at the moment a single 767-300F with some more on order in their cargo division. Hope this clears things up for you.
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brightcedars
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 6:53 pm

Well, I'll buck the trend and tell you I don't think many of these airlines will be buying the B747-8 passenger version.

First, let us not forget that when the B747-400 came around, there was almost no alternative longer range widebody (I concede the DC10/MD11; I think the L1011 was already dead meat) offer while today there are the entire A330/340/380 and B747/767/777/787 product lines to choose from.

I admit BA and CX are very likely candidates since they have always been cautious on the A380 and have the need for the capacity.

I wouldn't bet on QF just yet. Like SQ, it will depend on what the A380 delivers. JL and NH are a mystery as it seems the Japanese carriers lean towards the B777-300 as their maximum size aircraft. Slot restriction at key hubs and destinations may vote in favor of anything bigger though. Same for VS, although they operate out of LHR I think that it may be more important to increase the offer (# destinations) than the capacity. This votes in favor of A340/(A350)/B777.

The likes of AZ (if alive), IB, SA and others seem more likely to prefer sticking to max B777-300/A340-600 sized aircraft. AF, KL & NW may probably be ordering the new toy as it would fit well in their fleets, mainly to replace B747-400s and fill the capacity gap between B777-300 and A380 in the case of AF. One would wonder of BR, CA, CI, KE and OZ's positions (I see BR and OZ similar to VS in that aspect).

I'm not sure whether LH would replace its B747-400s with B747-800s but there seems to be a possibility given the large fleet they have.

I don't see the Gulf carriers ordering many passenger versions, they usually lean towards Airbus and they have already done quite some shopping by now.

Some interesting prospects are the likes of AI, GA, NZ and PR.

As far as cargo is concerned. Who doesn't buy the A380-800F and needs something bigger than a B777-200LRF will have to buy the B747-8F.
I want the European Union flag on airliners.net!
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:23 pm

Dont forget that by EIS for the 747-8 the oldest 744s out there will be 20 years old - CX certainly has some very "senior" 744s ( they were the launch customer for the RR powered version and a large proportion of their fleet dates from 1989/1990)

I do believe the majority of customers will be based in Asia after all the biggest proportion of the current 744 fleet is Asia based - Boeing need only capture a couple of big customers such as JL or CX to recover the development cost of what is after all a derivative design .... and the 744F fleet in Asia is massive as well SQ/KE/JL just to name a few

I also hope that NZ will be amongst the launch customers for the pax version - even though it would be a relatively modest total - possibly straight one for one replacement of their current 744s the oldest of which dates from 1989 also .
 
TinkerBelle
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Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:46 am

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Wed Nov 16, 2005 10:27 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 24):
NCA, Nippon Cargo Airlines
ANA All Nippon Airlines

Not only have they a diffrent name, they are 2 different airlines. ANA recently pulled out NCA. ANA operates at the moment a single 767-300F with some more on order in their cargo division. Hope this clears things up for you.

Thanx for the correction Manni.
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
slider
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:02 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):
The only way CO would ever get the 748 would be if they were allowed to fly into LHR.

Given the development of routes to China, that's also a possibility. CO has EWR-PEK, and wants PVG. HKG is just on the margin of being too big for a 777 as well, given range/payload/weight restriction/etc.

However, with that said, and given CO's international proliferation, I don't see the 748 ever happening for us.

777 and twinjets will be the staple widebody for years to come for CO unless the industry changes so much that something that big is needed.

Of course, CO has never met a Boeing it hasn't loved or ordered!
 
zvezda
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:25 am

Quoting Piercey (Reply 12):
Remember that there is a pax and maybe even a range differance between the 748 and the A380.

Maybe a range difference? CX have been delaying consideration of a WhaleJet order until it is clear whether or not it can fly SFO-HKG year-round with a commercially viable payload. That means they doubt the WhaleJet has even the range of the current JumboJet, let alone the new JumboJet.
That Airbus and Boeing claim the same range needs to be considered in light of the historical evidence. Boeing have always underpromised and overdelivered. The same cannot be said of Airbus.
 
FlyingDove
Posts: 76
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 1:31 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:46 am

I'll bet on a small LY order to replace their current 747 passenger fleet, which includes:

4 744s + 1 leased 744 + 1 742.

Also, they will have to replace their aging 742 Cargo fleet at some point.
 
A360
Posts: 426
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:51 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 29):
That means they doubt the WhaleJet has even the range of the current JumboJet, let alone the new JumboJet.

That range issue has been nothing more than speculation... there's no indication the 380 won't meet it's designed range of 8000nm.

So, for the time being, and from what we know, the 380 and the 748 will have the same range.

Regards:
A360
 
airworlda320
Posts: 306
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:57 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:53 am

How about the current users of the cargo 747:
Atlas Air
UPS
Cathay Pacific
China Airlines
Global Supply Systems
JAL
EVA
just to name a few, thoughts anyone?
Pull off kid, it ill go.
 
DIA
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:13 am

"How about the current users of the cargo 747:
Atlas Air
UPS
Cathay Pacific
China Airlines
Global Supply Systems
JAL
EVA
just to name a few, thoughts anyone?"


You forgot FedEx...they'd probably get if UPS does...

And I'd add Korean to the list. They are one of the top cargo carriers of the world.



Also:

Nippon Cargo ordered this a/c, not ANA (two different entities), even though they both have the same parent company.
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
flyinghippo
Posts: 690
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:48 am

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:36 am

I definitely see CX ordering some 748s, they need to replace their 744s eventually. But if CX finally decides to order A388, then 748 might not be a part of CX's fleet planning, plus they will end up with 3 engine types for their 747 fleet.

SQ - That's still up in the air, rumour has it SQ will order 748F first, and then decide on the PAX version. SQ probably want to see if A388 performance will satisfy SQ's needs first before deciding on 748 PAX.

CI - I can see them ordering both PAX and Cargo version of 748, and will probably order the PAX version first since their 744s are getting old by Asian airline standards (With the exception of their 4 GE powered 744s). Unless CI orders A346 to replace their 744s (I seriously doubt), CI might be one of the launch customers for the 748 PAX version. If they order 748, I just hope they send it to JFK, which is like a step-child city for CI... -___-"

BR will not order 748s, PAX or cargo version. Their long range will be based on 773ERs, and their cargo will be MD11/772LRFs.

AF/KL - I'm not sure if they will order 748s, since they might route any dense routes on AF flights which will operate the A388.

LH - Still a toss up, but a good candidate

QF - Probably in the same situation with SQ, the wait and see approach...

NZ - Rumour has it they will place a decent 748 order.

CA - They do fly 744s, with the huge market there, I wouldn't be surprised.

BA - They're not in the shape to order new planes, and with much discussed issue of GE issues, I predict they might just go with the WhaleJet.

VS - I don't think so, but with Sir Brandson, anything is possible.

IB - Nah

UA - Yes, they will need 748s to replace 744s and make a profit. They're scheduled to be out of BK by March of 2006, so maybe by the end of 2006 they'll place decent order.

AA/CO - Nah

DL/NW - Let's hope they survive first.

SA - hmm... They have 346s, do they need that much more capacity?

SV - A real possibility, but not sure when.

KE - 748F, oh yea!

[Edited 2005-11-16 18:38:36]
 
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Stitch
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:48 am

I don't see NH as a customer. They seem to have settled on the B773 for their intra-Japan high-density flights and the B773ER for their international large widebody fleet.

JL might very well do the same, since they are retiring their older B747s to replace them with smaller planes, and they operate the B773 domestically, as well.

Someone mentioned on another forum that LH now mandates "side-stick controls" for their cockpits, ostensibly to mean they can only order Airbus (or the B787, which will offer a side-stick control), so if true, that probably negates the B748I unless that plane can also be offered with a side-stick control.

The above being said, I agree there are a lot of potentional B747 operators who may find value in the B748I.
 
airworlda320
Posts: 306
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 10:57 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:50 am

[quote=DIA,reply=33]You forgot FedEx...they'd probably get if UPS does...

And I'd add Korean to the list. They are one of the top cargo carriers of the world.

Hi DIA
I did n't include FedEx due to the fact they have ordered the A380 do n't know whether the 747-8 would fit in with their business plan but in total agreement about Korean!



 Smile
Pull off kid, it ill go.
 
flyinghippo
Posts: 690
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RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
the B787, which will offer a side-stick control

Are you sure about that?
 
pac
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 1999 10:30 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:03 am

well UPS & Fedex are not the best Boeing Friends ..
Remember when UPS switched from 767 to A300 and Fedex's
last "real" Boeing order were the last ever built 727s
and they already ordererd the 380...so they probably
won't go for 747-8..
anyhow what I dont understand is that Boeing always was saying in the past there is no need for an huge plane ,and now they are going to Re-design
the 747 (again...yawn)....
sorry but i dont undersstand that .....are they scared of losing a market ?!?
but which they said said that is no market  Confused
 
Glom
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Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:38 am

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:22 am

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 37):
Are you sure about that?

I think he's wrong. If there was an option, it would require different type ratings.

What's LH's deal with sidesticks anyway? I find it hard to believe they would be so adament about such a minor thing.
 
TWPHIL
Posts: 45
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 3:12 am

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:29 am

EL AL could also a be a potential buyer of the new 748.
It could easely replace remaining 742s still in service as well as the older 744 maybe..B748 would be the perfect fit to fly TLV LAX year round
 
DIA
Posts: 3053
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2001 2:24 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:35 am

Pac:

UPS just ordered new 744Freighters...so they are open for Boeing business

...and the 748 is considerably in another (smaller) class than the A380...so that is why I included them.

The whole 767 thing: UPS found that the A300 works better for them...the 767 could have used a bit more width for their (UPS) specific purposes.


Boeing has come out with the 748 because the market will need a fill-in between the 773/744 size a/c and the A380. So, in keeping up with technology and without killing the 773, Boeing is bringing the 748 to the market. The 748 is not a Superjumbo like the A380. VLA, like the A380, are in a different league according to most airline analysts.

Are they scared of losing market? Yes and no. According to Boeing, they are not losing much potential market for the A380-size a/c. But, Boeing does see the potential in filling in the gap between the 773/744 and the A380. That market will be Boeing's alone....just like the A380 market is Airbuse's alone.

Redisign of the 747 (you said *yawn*) Boeing, and most everybody else says "wow, what a great idea...to build on the successful 747 product line. Smart." Airbus used the A300 basic overall design to make the A310, the A330, the A340, and now to make the A350.....so I don't understand why you think the overall 747 design is boring. This is how Aircraft manufactureres same a lot of time and money. Only when it is a necessity does a manufacturer look at designing something from scratch. this is acroos most industries...Automobile Manufacturers do the same thing (a great example).

So, currently,you have the 787 and A380 to be excited about for a completely new design.
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
Carfield
Posts: 2035
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:49 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:53 am

I definitely see a potential big order with CX, which is not too keen on either Boeing 777-300ERs or Airbus A340-500/600 or A380, so Boeing 747-800 is definitely high on their lists, but I still wonder if CX will be one of the launch carriers for this new type. As we all know, CX does not like to launch a new a/c because of all the teething problems when Boeing 777 is first launched. Anyway, CX is definitely high on the order list... I can actually see 748s eventually replaced the whole 744 fleet...

About JL and NH, both airlines seem to determine that Boeing 767/777 (77W for long haul)/787 will be the future of their fleet, especially most of their routes do not requlre ultra long haul planes, except if they plan to fly to Brazil, which is not likely as of this point but has potentials or even Peru to some extent. But never says never...

Carfield
 
freedom4all
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2005 1:14 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 4:19 am

Had anyone thought about the fact that now that a new 747 model is being built, when the last 747 is taken to the scrap yard it will be of an airframe designed 3 quarters of a century before.....747's should still be in the sky in 2040 and beyond....thats an amazing feat when you think about it

IMHO the greatest aircraft ever built!  Smile  airplane 
long live the 747!
 
YULWinterSkies
Posts: 1266
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:42 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 4:46 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
I don't see NH as a customer. They seem to have settled on the B773 for their intra-Japan high-density flights and the B773ER for their international large widebody fleet.

It is not because they publicly stated 1-2 years ago that their future fleet would be 777-787 that this will never change... Only stupid people never change their mind, after all... and I assume NH are not stupid! I would say maybe, but on a longer term...

JL is likely imo.
BA and VS are very likely customers too.
When I doubt... go running!
 
HanginOut
Posts: 521
Joined: Sun May 29, 2005 3:24 am

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 5:52 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 14):
Potential buyers: SA, BA, LH, KLM, AF (maybe), VS, UA, NW, AI, TG, SQ, MH, JAL, ANA, KE, CI, CA, QF, NZ, AC (maybe).

Air Canada has no interest in an aircraft this big. The biggest plane that they will operate will be the 777-300ER.
Dreaming of the day I can work for an airline
 
UAMAYBACH1239
Posts: 213
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2004 12:46 am

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 6:03 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 33):
You forgot FedEx...they'd probably get if UPS does

Fred Smith the Head Honcho at fedex for some reason hates the thought of 747's in any way. Not sure why. When he first came on board after the Flying Tiger integration, he stated that was his first priority. To retire the fleet of 747's ASAP.
 Cool
a/c flown 737-222/322/522 757/747-1-2-4, 767-2-3, 777-2-3, A319-20, DC10-10-30, L1011-3-5, 727-222adv, MD85-90 flyourfri
 
pac
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 1999 10:30 pm

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 6:03 am

DIA:

thx for that info yea forgot that the "brown Bananas" are already got ´747's
and Fedex don't so its normal that they looking for an equal Product,yea
maybe theyll might have some of those...

But for me it seems that Boeing didnt have much "new" ideas ,well yes the 747 is an good an very popular product ,but in my opinion you can't redesign
an Product until death....!
my concern is that they might fail even with the 787 project,they first
announced it as an totaly new plane but when you see the last designs
now,it just looks like an revised 7672...that reminds me of
McDonnell Douglas which redesignd the best 3-Holer ever (or maybe the best Plane ever) created the MD 11 and failed ,wont hope that it will happens to Boeing ,or look at NOKIA for example ,they missed something and now they
have huge Problems...youll find it everywhere,without question the 747
is one one the most spectacular planes ever build but ask how much a
Boeing-Designer have in his Pocket in year...and for that im missing
really "new ideas" !
yea and well the A300 is also one of the best planes ever flown (ask some pilots) ,and I really also dont understand why the call the 350 an new thing??? also just an re-design...
310? short version Ok ,340?? 4 holer ok kinda different ,330...longer +Winglets
ja Ok ,350 ??? bah thats were the money goes...but there were billions of
dicussion here ,we dont have the decision ,we just can fly with the Planes
form A to B or C should the Airlines decide whom they gonna give the money
but its fun to discuss about it.....  Smile
 
piercey
Posts: 2188
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 11:07 am

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 6:09 am

Some more airlines and my opinions

TG - I can't belive that they haven't been mentioned yet. Nothing claims they're unhappy with the 744, and they don't have orders for the A380s, so why not?
SV - wildcard
SQ cargo - heres something no one thought about, what about the cargo arm of SQ? They are a wild card, but a possibility.
AT - any guesses on this operator? Probably not, but who knows.
PO - probably
PR - I honestly don't see them ordering any.
MH - they'll order, they have routes that the A380 would be to big to fill that they would love to have a 748 for.
LH - same as MH. They'll order.
KU - ?????
KE - no doubt cargo, probably pax too
GA - wildcard
BR - I don't see why you think they would not get both versions.
LY - within 10 yrs
SS - They could, but someone would have to shoot me to see them in the TUI colors
CZ cargo - they'll announce soon
CI - pax and cargo orders, but they'll be getting some later slots due to age
5Y - I'd be shocked if they didn't
OZ - wildcard
NH - first 5 customer
FJ - they'll lease some, but I doubt order
AI - within 10
CA - probably
AR - wildcard
AC - I predict that AC will buy the 748 and go back to Boeing for longhaul. they like the A330s it looks like, but the A340s are out of their!
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
 
SthPacific787
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 6:25 am

RE: Potential 747-800 Orders

Thu Nov 17, 2005 6:41 am

One question regarding AA. How is it, such a big Trans Atlantic carrier flying a lot of PAX into slot restricted LHR relies on a 300 seat aircraft to do this? Surely a 747 could be justified here?

I think I must be missing something because everyone immediately discounts them as a potential 748 customer  confused 
Aussie Based Air NZ 787 fan