grantcv
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What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 1:30 am

Two years ago, I thought that the Airbus lineup was unbeatable. A modern and consistent single-aisle A318/A319/A320/A321 family at the lower end. And then a rational set of wide body families - A300/A310, A330/A340, and A380 at the top. All of a sudden, things seem to be not so nice. The A320 family is now 20 years old and, while still modern and selling well, overdue for a makeover. The A300/A310 only exist for the freighter market. The A330 is still selling well, but is being replaced by the A350 to better compete with the B739 and the B722ER. The A340 seems to have all but stalled out. And the A380 is grabbing the headlines at the very top, but not finding too many takers.

So what is next for Airbus? Update or replace the A320 family. Replace the A300/A310 family and compete with the 783/788. Replace the A340 with a twin to compete with the 773. Shrink the A380 and compete directly with the 748 - if that is technically feasible at all. It seems to me that Airbus has to do most of these in the next few years. Which one do they do first? Or do they take on the A389?
 
ikramerica
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 1:38 am

It better be pro-active rather than reactive.

Maybe they come out with a true replacement for the 757 series based on the A321/(A322) with a new wing? Force Boeings hand? Of course that would lead boeing to officially launch Y1 including the 737NG replacement, which would force Airbus to NG the A320.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Dirkou
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 1:41 am

When will the first A350 be delivered? And the first 787?
 
ikramerica
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:02 am

788 in first half of 2008, if all goes well. Afterward would be a big setback, as the Chinese want them pre-Olympics.

350 is 2010, and that isn't as tight since nobody cares about the Winter Olympics  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ElGreco
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:06 am

Actual and futur work for Airbus:

Finish the A380-800, -900 and freither;

Still a lot of work of A400M with 1st delivery in 2008 (200 orders and certainlly 100 to 200 more over next 10 years);

A lot of work on A350-800 and -900 with first delivery in 2010 (may be -1000 for EK with 20m more!!!);

Rebuilted the A320 familly with all technologies from A380, A350 and all possible from B787 with first flight in 2012.

This date of 2012 is the AIRBUS official internal target date for the A320 Enance takoff. They are sure that Boeing will replaced their very old design B737 by a brand new full composite plane for take off between 2010 and 2012 (my feeling is Boeing will annouced that at the next Le Bouget Airshow in June 2007 during the presentation in flight of the very nice B787).


Remember that A320/B737 represent half of the market.

Airbus may survive with 30 to 40% of the A350/B787 market, but they need to be in worse case at 50% of small aircraft business.
When you are right alone, you are wrong
 
TheSonntag
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:07 am

You have a valid point. I guess the future of Airbus will depend a lot on the A320 successor. As the 737 and A320 successors likely will have the same engines, I guess both airplanes will not be that different from each other.

The A380 will be succesful, but this isn't the field where Airbus will make too much money for the forseeable future, however the PR effect should not be underestimated. This is largely irrelevant for the typical customer, but still it is a nice side-effect.

The money will be made in the 787 category. The A350 will be a succes, but in order to get a real A340 replacement, more will have to be done.

I think Airbus should concentrate on the A320 replacement and derivatives for now. In 10years, we will see what comes next.
 
ElGreco
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:27 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
788 in first half of 2008, if all goes well. Afterward would be a big setback, as the Chinese want them pre-Olympics

It will be difficult, we need to deliver first parts for B787 middle/end of 2006, so first flight in begining of 2007?

Then one year testing, qualification and production,....

OK seems possible, but I remember that we were so under pressure for the A380, everybody was hopping that somebody else will be late to reduced pressure.

Even if Boeing and Airbus used Catia, their is a lot of work and even if I am really impress by the Boeing Compagny, they are facing to a great chalenge, working and managing people all around the world (USA, Japan, Korea, Europe,...) and even they have done some equivalent work with Japan on the 777, it was long time ago.
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Alessandro
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:31 am

I would like to see a Beluga based on the A340.
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dl021
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:43 am

I think that their next major project will depend entirely on whether they get more orders for the A-380. They need to increase their cash flow in order to afford to create a new from-scratch airplane, so whether they do a totally new replacement for their single aisle product line or a "next-generation" approach depends on them increasing sales on items they are currently producing and able to deliver.

Since the A-350 is at least 6 years off, and it is a derivative itself, and the A-380 is not selling as well as they projected, and the earlier mentioned A-400 is not exactly going to be a tremendous money maker for them I don't really see what their next step is other than an enhanced or next-gen A-320 airplane....perhaps calling it an A325 or something to create a new airplane feel. Kind of like those cans of "new car smell" you can buy at Pep-Boys.

It feels like the tables are turning a bit, and Boeing now appears to have better prospects over the next couple of years.

Both manufacturers will continue to make airplanes, though, and I'm certain that the A-330/340 is not the last beautiful and popular airplane that Airbus will build. But they need to come up with a better plan than what they currently seem to have if they wish to dominate.
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ElGreco
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:44 am

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 7):
I would like to see a Beluga based on the A340.

About the Beluga, I notice that EADS have been selected on B787, so why not using Beluga to deliver B787 part in place of lanching a B747 with a big "deformation" on the top (it looks like Quasimodo del Seattle).
When you are right alone, you are wrong
 
grantcv
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 2:49 am

When it comes to the single aisle market, Airbus seems to have few choices - extend the current lineup to take advantage of the absence of the 752, upgrade the A320, or replace it outright. Is this their opportunity to regain the upperhand by introducing a state-of-the-art design before Boeing gets to? It seems that Boeing has to develop an all new single-aisle within the next 5 or so years where Airbus could get away with an NG. But if Airbus only do an NG, won't they be where Boeing is just coming from - having a lineup perceived as old designs?
 
dutchjet
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 3:12 am

I think that the next major program for Airbus will be to update and re-engineer the A32X family to incorporate new technologies and the lessons learned from the development of the A350 and A380 aircraft. (The same will be true over at Boeing.....next up will be the 737NG replacement.) While which airliner has the longest range and which airliner has the most capacity is interesting and sexy, the A32X/737NG single aisle families are far more important in terms of volume, sales and profits for both Airbus and Boeing.

Both Airbus and Boeing will develop new comprehensive single aisle airliners that can accommodate anywhere from 125 to 225 passengers (in a typical two class configuration, more for charter/LCC work) over segments ranging from short haul (for intra-European flights, for example) to transatlantic runs (say up to 4,500 miles)......the new single aisle families will play a huge role replacing everything from the 73G/A319 to the 752. Boeing has said that its looking at up to four fuselage lengths with two different wing versions to cover this huge market, my guess is that Airbus will do about the same. Efffecienty and commonality will be the key features within the repective aircraft families.

These will be huge and costly projects which will be the basis of the future of each of the manufacturers.....one cannot emphasize how important the 737NG and A32X successors will be to Boeing and Airbus, respectively.
 
11Bravo
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 3:29 am

Quoting DL021 (Reply 8):
I don't really see what their next step is other than an enhanced or next-gen A-320 airplane....perhaps calling it an A325 or something to create a new airplane feel. Kind of like those cans of "new car smell" you can buy at Pep-Boys.

I don't think that approach is going to work for either Airbus or Boeing. If one of them goes down the “technology upgrade” route for narrow-bodies, the other will launch a completely new aircraft and run the table.

Both the B737 series and the A320s are selling well right now, so I don’t think there’s an immediate need for a replacement. When the time comes, Airbus and Boeing will have to develop new aircraft based on composite technology, new engines, and whatever other advances we see in the next five years or so.

Obviously Airbus has put a lot of its eggs in the A380 basket, and it seems to me that’s where they need to concentrate their efforts for now. They need to get the production up and running and work on tweaking the performance to insure the A380 is a solid seller.

I honestly don’t know what to think of where Airbus is going in the mid-sized market. It would seem that they have no plans to go after the A300/B767 sector and I think the long-term viability of the A350 is still questionable. Targeting the gap between the 787 and the 777 with a derivative airframe may have been a mistake.

If Boeing launches a 787-10, things could go very badly for the A350, and I would also think Boeing could consider a “NG” 777-200ER that would utilize some of the improvements that have made the 777-300ER so successful.

At this point, I think canceling the A350 and building a truly new aircraft in that size range needs to be on the table for Airbus. Obviously if they did that, they’d be late into the market, but it would give them an opportunity to capture a larger portion of the midsize market in the long run. Boeing had success with this type of strategy when they built the 777 after the A340 entered the market.
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khenleydia
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 4:22 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 12):
At this point, I think canceling the A350 and building a truly new aircraft in that size range needs to be on the table for Airbus. Obviously if they did that, they’d be late into the market, but it would give them an opportunity to capture a larger portion of the midsize market in the long run. Boeing had success with this type of strategy when they built the 777 after the A340 entered the market.

Do you really think that Airbus is going to cancel the A350??? They expect to have nearly or over 200 commitments by the end of the year. What, that isn't good?? Maybe they don't have the firm orders that Boeing has, but they have further to go then Boeing.

When it comes to a 737/320 replacement, what makes any of you really think that Airbus and Boeing aren't already working on such projects? I would be very surprised if they aren't coming up with ideas and seeing what technology will go into it. It might not be full force, but they are working on it, to a certain extent.

Boeing in the past has spent time developing a cabin layout using 2 isles for planes around the size of the 737/320 pax load. It will be interesting to see if they use that idea. I don't remember where I read it, but it was maybe a year ago that I read that.

As for Airbus, I imagine they will be doing the same thing that Boeing will be doing. I think it makes sense that they try to match each others moves. The big question is who will do it first. But, I bet in the next 2 or so years, we will see someone make the move.

KhenleyDIA
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BoomBoom
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:13 am

Quoting ElGreco (Reply 4):
They are sure that Boeing will replaced their very old design B737.

You mean that very old design that is out selling the A320 family this year? The 737NG is as much a new plane as the A350 is.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 12):
When the time comes, Airbus and Boeing will have to develop new aircraft based on composite technology, new engines, and whatever other advances we see in the next five years or so.

Airbus says that a composite fuselage is too risky for a commercial application.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
JetMaster
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:19 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 14):
Airbus says that a composite fuselage is too risky for a commercial application.

That's their official opinion...


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
zvezda
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:20 am

If I were Airbus I would be considering a very large twin (larger than the B777) to fill the gap between the A350-900 and the WhaleJet.
 
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Stitch
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:42 am

The A388 is still in testing and has yet to enter passenger service, so I think it is premature to think the program is in danger of "stalling". If it does as well as Airbus believes it will, we will probably see new customers and existing customers increase their orders. And even if she is a little "off", I just don't see everyone moving to the B747-8I...

As for the A350, Airbus really needs to convert some of those letters of intent to hard orders with hard cash behind them. The game is still quite early, of course, and there are so many A330/767/A340 customers who could go for the A350, so it's hardly "make or break" time for the program, but the 787 continues to build momentum. If EK has decided against the A350 (be it in favor of the 787 or eschewing both widebodies in favor of the 777), that's going to hurt.

The A318-A321 still sell extremely well. Not sure how big their backorder is, but I imagine it is enough (considering the program should continue to rack up orders) to push a real replacement back until the mid-2010s. Boeing has so many 73Gs on order that I expect they also will wait until the mid-2010s before the "797" is launched. I'd be shocked (and dismayed, frankly), if Boeing announced the "797" in 2007, personally.
 
ElGreco
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:44 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 14):
Quoting ElGreco (Reply 4):
They are sure that Boeing will replaced their very old design B737.

You mean that very old design that is out selling the A320 family this year? The 737NG is as much a new plane as the A350 is.

Hello BoomBoom,

The B737 is really old design, far away from A320 familly:

Special engine and pylon design from the B737-400 because it was design for smaller engines, so too close from the ground,

No fly by wire,

No or only few composite,

Old manual reveting manufacturing,

Old electrical design,

Expensive technology, because too old,

....

This is normal, even if some investment was made on that plane (winglet,...), you need to recognize that this plane was design long long time ago, even before 757, 767 which are today consider as old plane compare to B787 or A350.

It will be very easy for Boeing to build the replacement of B737 by a B787 smaller. In fact, we already discust that with Boeing, when they told me future airplanes in place of answering "yes it will be the 737 replacement".
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gigneil
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:49 am

Fly by wire isn't necessarily relevant. The plane is as composite as the A320. The electrical design is brand new as are all the onboard systems. The wing is completely new.

The only thing about the 737 that's the same is the fuselage. Its a valid competitor, to be sure.

Airbus needs to build a plane that covers the 300 - 500 seat market.

N
 
BoomBoom
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:58 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 15):
Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 14):
Airbus says that a composite fuselage is too risky for a commercial application.

That's their official opinion...

So are you saying the have an unofficial opinion to the contrary?
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
ElGreco
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:08 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 19):
Fly by wire isn't necessarily relevant. The plane is as composite as the A320. The electrical design is brand new as are all the onboard systems. The wing is completely new.

The only thing about the 737 that's the same is the fuselage. Its a valid competitor, to be sure.

Airbus needs to build a plane that covers the 300 - 500 seat market.

Fly by wire save weight, optimise the flight so save petrol because it's offer a better aerodynamic efficiency.

Concerning the electrical design, exept the really last models, they are far away even from 777.

For wings design, because they have got still short leg it's not efficient.

In fact these comments are not negative ones, the 320 was launch 20 years after the original 737, and it's still a very good plane, which is continue to be sold, but the price of petrol will continue to grow and Embraer, Bombardier, China and Russia are interest about this market (50% of number of planes in the world), so I can assure you that the replacement of B737 is more important than the new B747-800, it's may be as important at the B787.

Airbus and Boeing know that, and the technical fight as already began.
When you are right alone, you are wrong
 
JetMaster
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:12 am

Quoting ElGreco (Reply 21):

Fly by wire save weight, optimise the flight so save petrol because it's offer a better aerodynamic efficiency.



Quoting ElGreco (Reply 21):
For wings design, because they have got still short leg it's not efficient.

But the B737NG isn't known for having problems with efficiency and fuel burn, right?  eyebrow 


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
ElGreco
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:28 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 22):
But the B737NG isn't known for having problems with efficiency and fuel burn, right?


Regards,
JM

Exept Easyjet prefered A320 for comonality and economy as AF.

Again this plane was and is good, but the future one in full composite, will be much beter!!!  Smile  Smile  Smile  Wink
When you are right alone, you are wrong
 
BoomBoom
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:42 am

Quoting ElGreco (Reply 18):
The B737 is really old design, far away from A320 familly:

Special engine and pylon design from the B737-400 because it was design for smaller engines, so too close from the ground,

No fly by wire,

No or only few composite,

Old manual reveting manufacturing,

Old electrical design,

Expensive technology, because too old,

El Greco, you're really showing your ignorance.

The 737NG has new larger wings, new high-lift devices, new engines, a new empennage, a new landing gear, a new electrical system, as well as, significantly modified fuselage sections (new materials and construction techniques), entirely new avionics, and a new cockpit.

As I said, it's a much a "new" airplane as the A350 is.

If it's so old and outdated, how do you explain why it is selling so well?
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
JetMaster
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:50 am

Quoting ElGreco (Reply 23):
Exept Easyjet prefered A320 for comonality and economy as AF.

First of all, EZY chose A319s and those were cheap like peanuts. And AF built up a large A32X fleet long before any B737NG was available. You can't draw conclusions based on these two airlines.

The truth is both families don't outperform each other - and that's why they have been selling more or less "50/50" for many years.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
TheSonntag
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:56 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 24):
As I said, it's a much a "new" airplane as the A350 is.

While I agree with you that the 737 is still a competitive airplane, this is not correct. The A350 is based on the A330 which is a much more modern design than the 737. This is not a problem, Boeing knows how to perfect their airplane designs, but it doesn't change the fact that the A350 is based on a newer design.

No matter what, the 737 has reached the end of its development process. This is not bad, as it actually can force Boeing to develop something completely new.

Airbus, on the other hand, already has a family. This is good now, but it might become a problem in 10years. Will Airbus take the risk to develop something completely new in 10years? Boeing will and will base their new designs on the 787 design concept. Airbus must find a compromise between their family strategy and new approaches. I do not think this will be a problem, but it certainly is a challenge.

Michael
 
BoomBoom
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 8:02 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 26):
The A350 is based on the A330 which is a much more modern design than the 737.

I didn't say the 737NG was a newer design than the A350. What I said was the 737NG was as much as new design as the A350 is from the A330, because Boeing made so many changes from the 737 Classic.

[Edited 2005-11-21 00:03:45]
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
TheSonntag
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 8:49 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 27):

Alright, I see your point and agree with it.
 
ikramerica
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 9:06 am

Boeing has a distinct advantage in the 737 and the 767. Being so much older than the 320 and 330 in initial design, Boeing is now more willing to "move on" from those designs to the 787 and 797, while airbus will "350" the 320 and keep it roughly the same in shape.

This is not to imply the 320NG will not be competitive, but just as the 320 was seen as new while the 733/34 and later the NG were seen as derivative, now the shoe will be on the other foot. Same thing for the 787. Replaces a 30 year old design by EIS (based on when the 767 was launched).

And one other thing that the 787 does, it makes the 772 obsolete by 2015, and forces B into a new plane at 10 abreast to replace the 773 and 748 with 3 models (one a bit larger), though when that happens is up in the air considering the huge orders for the 773ER. I still say 2016 for the 773ER sized one, then all three by 2018 Q4.

BTW- if Airbus allows the development of the Q400 to interfere with their commercial program timeline, that would be a very bad thing. Boeing doesn't let that happen with their military projects.


Quoting ElGreco (Reply 6):

It will be difficult, we need to deliver first parts for B787 middle/end of 2006, so first flight in begining of 2007?

It's what has been planned all along, and they are on the schedule they planned, difficult or no. Now, things can happen, but right now they are doing the shedding weight phase after the initial design was finalized earlier this fall.

Quoting ElGreco (Reply 9):
About the Beluga, I notice that EADS have been selected on B787, so why not using Beluga to deliver B787 part in place of lanching a B747 with a big "deformation" on the top (it looks like Quasimodo del Seattle).

I don't think the beluga fits the fuselage of the 787 inside.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
abba
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 9:22 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 16):
If I were Airbus I would be considering a very large twin (larger than the B777) to fill the gap between the A350-900 and the WhaleJet.

I think you are right in that the 777 is a big success for Boeing but also a relative weak point in that the 777 is now so old that newer technology might make it possible to create an aircraft this size (or perhaps a little bigger) that would be cheaper to produce and might be as much as 10-15% cheaper to operate. This would force Boeing's hand to do to the 777 what Airbus did to the 350. In both cases an not too old design that could be improved existed - that is: improved to such an extent that a clean sheet development would not yield a result that would so much better as to justify the extra cost.

Combining this with work on a new 320 should be possible for Airbus.

Abba
 
grantcv
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 9:35 am

If the next big airplane battle is to be in the A32X/B73X market, what key new innovations will drive the need to develop entirely new aircraft? Will it be the 787 technologies like a composite fuselage? Are any new engine or engine technologies on the horizon? What about the basic architecture? Boeing had toyed with the idea of twin aisle narrow body with the 7J7 back in the eighties. Are two aisles with six abreast seating really feasible and wat would be the benefit? Or does the need for larger overhead space given our larger carry-ons these days make that difficult?
 
SWISSER
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:42 am

B737NG is a very modern plane, it looks old, but is isn't!

The biggest difference to me in the eyes of a pilot between the A32S and the B73NG is that when you fly trough rough turbulence, get in a stall, do a rough maneuvre, get in a windshear... the Airbus flight computer will take over and gets you're *ss out of the situation way better then any human could do, in the B73NG, you still are on you're own in a very modern plane, wich is off course also a big benefit!

Anyway,
B77LR/A345 A346/773ER B787/A350...
they are all toy-battles compared to what the replacements will be of the A32S/B73NG.

Airbus made in 1988 an aircraft that was 10 years in advance and actually launched the Airbus concept, let us hope that both A and B will create an aircraft family that is so ahead of it's time we all must sit down to believe it  Wink

I' am really looking forward to them!
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Ken777
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:12 pm

Waiting for A or B to announce a replacement for the single aisle plane is an interesting game. I don't think either wants to move before the 787/350 are flying - at least in the testing phase. I do think, however, that both are ready incase the other makes an announcement. They both would be able to respond to the other's announcement with a well thought out competitor.

As for Airbus coming out with a 300 - 500 seat plane to challenge the 777, I think that would be a big problem for them for two reasons. The first is that it would be a very expensive project on top of the 380. The second is that as soon as Airbus was firmly committed to the new project Boeing could announce their 73E based on 787 technology.

Boeing is actually in a pretty good position right now. The 777 line is selling well, the 747-8 will be comparatively inexpensive to develop and will be profitable without a lot of sales. The 787 is selling well enough for a lot of talk about another production line and Boeing is going to learn a lot of lessons for the 73E. A lot of them have already been learned in the wind tunnel tests. Boeing will probably be able to bring the 73E to market cheaper than Airbus can bring a 32E to market if they max the 787 technologies.

Like the past it is going to be in interesting battle over the next few years.
 
abba
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:02 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 33):
As for Airbus coming out with a 300 - 500 seat plane to challenge the 777, I think that would be a big problem for them for two reasons. The first is that it would be a very expensive project on top of the 380. The second is that as soon as Airbus was firmly committed to the new project Boeing could announce their 73E based on 787 technology

If Airbus announces a 777 competitor Boeing MUST respond whether or not they want to or not.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 33):
Boeing is actually in a pretty good position right now. The 777 line is selling well, the 747-8 will be comparatively inexpensive to develop and will be profitable without a lot of sales. The 787 is selling well enough for a lot of talk about another production line and Boeing is going to learn a lot of lessons for the 73E. A lot of them have already been learned in the wind tunnel tests. Boeing will probably be able to bring the 73E to market cheaper than Airbus can bring a 32E to market if they max the 787 technologies.

Don't forget, that Airbus has two teams developing new aircrafts these days. The 380 team and the M400 (or whatever it is called) for military use. This - as far as I understand - is a 100% fiber plane which means that Airbus has the expertise in building large fiber structures. When the m400 development program is over Airbus can dedicate this team to a 777 competitor and let the A350 team take over the new 320 class aircraft. In this sense I believe Airbus has more development resources than Boeing that only has the 787 team.

Abba
 
WINGS
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:14 pm

I believe that the next project for Airbus will be the introduction of the A322. This will allow Airbus to close the gap between the A321 and the A330-200

An A322 with modified and improved wing + upgraded engines may prove to be a headache towards the B787-300.

Regards,
WIngs
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EI321
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:32 pm

Quoting Grantcv (Thread starter):
Replace the A340 with a twin to compete with the 773.

They should have done that years ago
 
EI321
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:59 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 35):
I believe that the next project for Airbus will be the introduction of the A322. This will allow Airbus to close the gap between the A321 and the A330-200

Isn't the 321 already at the limit of how much the model can be stretched?
 
whitehatter
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:07 am

ElGreco,

I see where you are coming from with this (shame the cheerleaders can't).

However the 737 today is further away from the original model than (for example) the 747-400 is from the original 747-100. The current 737 models really only look like the first 737s, and that's probably about it!

The systems have evolved over time, and although the fly by wire concept is now proven and overdue in a Boeing product in that sector the 737's existing mechanical arrangement is adequate and not really so much of a technological burden. In larger aircraft it becomes more of a factor as you have long cable and piping runs, but in the 737 sector it's not as critical. FBW is still desirable but not as much a dealbreaker as you might think.

It has has some features which sell it to airlines over and above the A320, and the opposite can also be said. But the most critical part of an aircraft is its wing and the 737 wing of today is much more evolved than the old 737-200. In that respect it is a completely different aircraft and a much newer design.

Boeing could have renumbered the aircraft when it changed the wing and other components during its evolution, but stuck with 737. They would have been justified to do so as well, just as Airbus have designated their newest project A350 rather than as an evolution of the A330 twin line. There are many similarities in how the two projects stack up and the changes under the skin.
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BoomBoom
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Tue Nov 22, 2005 4:54 am

Quoting SWISSER (Reply 32):
the Airbus flight computer will take over and gets you're *ss out of the situation way better then any human could do,

So why do A320s crash at the same rate as 737s? There is no difference in the safety record of the A320 vs. the 737.

Quoting Abba (Reply 34):
Don't forget, that Airbus has two teams developing new aircrafts these days. The 380 team and the M400 (or whatever it is called) for military use. This - as far as I understand - is a 100% fiber plane which means that Airbus has the expertise in building large fiber structures.

Military planes often cost far more than commercial planes, where the competition is cut-throat. The question is, can Airbus, or Boeing, for that matter, deliver a composite fuselage at a competitive price in the commercial arena.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
SWISSER
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:57 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 39):
So why do A320s crash at the same rate as 737s? There is no difference in the safety record of the A320 vs. the 737

So did I mention any safety record?
737NG was introduced 10 years after A320...
But I would be very interested in a list of fatal accidents between 1988 till now with A32S-B737!
What time is top of descent?
 
ElGreco
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 2:11 am

Hello Boomboom, WhiteHatter, Ikramerika, and others,

Sorry to not answer before (it was impossible to connect Airliners.net) yesterday.

I'm happy to see some answer/comments this time.

Boomboom,

I agree with your definition that there is same level of differences between the B737 "original" and B737NG than between the A330 and the A350.

And you may agree that their is some small details in A320 compared to B737 which are giving today some advantages to AIRBUS.

Even if you don't agree, I accept that without any problem, but you will certainlly agree that this time Airbus:

- partially because of the A400M with only 300 market planes in 15 to 20 years,
- and certainlly because of the lost battle of A340-500 and -600 against the 777,

will play after Boeing (like in chess, they lost their advance),
so considering Airbus A350 is running after B787, A320 replacement will run after the 737NG replacement, if launched by Boeing (and I feel all around me that it will be the case).

This battle will be the one, "The return of Jedi", and we don't know who is the Jedi, may be both are Jedi.

Personally, as my Company is High Innovation oriented in Aerospace in both Airbus and Boeing, next 4 to 6 years will be a long dream period focus on:
- weight saving;
- global cost reduction (intallation and maintenance);
but also in same time,
- recycling problems (old planes, cadmium,...)
When you are right alone, you are wrong
 
BoomBoom
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 2:25 am

Quoting ElGreco (Reply 41):
And you may agree that their is some small details in A320 compared to B737 which are giving today some advantages to AIRBUS

What are these details of which you speak? The only one I can think of is the slightly wider fuselage of the A320, but it's less than six inches inside the cabin and therefore hardly noticeable. But every little bit helps.

There is also some downside to this wider fuselage. It adds weight and increases drag. So there are tradeoffs here.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
art
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:03 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 39):
The question is, can Airbus, or Boeing, for that matter, deliver a composite fuselage at a competitive price in the commercial arena.

Both A & B have a strong incentive to wait for this question to be answered before launching program(me)s based on this technology.

Other unknowns are whether jet fuel is going to rise to a much higher price and stabilise there over the next few years and whether carbon taxes are introduced into the domain of aviation.

Given the possible transition from ally to composite and the possible transition from low cost to high cost fuel, both manufacturers might do best to focus on production and refinement of existing types and to hold off launching any brand new designs for the next few years.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:20 am

I think right now the next major program after the A350 will be a de facto replacement for the A320 Family of airliners.

Most likely using the same fuselage cross-section as the A320 Family, I expect the plane (probably called A370 Family) to offer the following:

1. Improved interior design for more passenger roominess.

2. Redesigned nose for lower drag.

3. A380-style cockpit.

4. All-new wing for faster cruise speeds.

5. Redesigned tail surfaces.

6. Extensive use of GLARE and/or composite materials for the aircraft skin.

7. New, next-generation jet engines that offer far lower fuel burn than the CFM56 and V2500 engines used today.

8. Possible implementation of "bleedless engine" operation.

9. Fuselage lengths not much different than what is available now with the A318, A319, A320 and A321.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:46 am

Quoting Art (Reply 43):
Both A & B have a strong incentive to wait for this question to be answered before launching program(me)s based on this technology.

They BOTH can't wait for the other to go first.
Boeing has already made the leap with the 787.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
A319XFW
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:55 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 44):
(probably called A370 Family)

Surely you mean A360.. After A350 logically follows A360.... But I guess the A380 does fall out of that pattern...
 
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Stitch
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:52 am

I would think Airbus would want to concentrate on a narrowbody upgrade before taking on the 777.

The A359 will encroach upon the 772 and 772ER, and by launching a 773ER and larger model, that would somewhat invalidate their reasons for launching the A380 program, which implies long-term growth will push towards much larger planes then the 773(ER).

Meanwhile, as noted, narrowbodies is where the real money is made, thanks to volume, so Airbus can't really use an A32NG against an all-composite, all-electric, bleedless engine 797.
 
ElGreco
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:03 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
Meanwhile, as noted, narrowbodies is where the real money is made, thanks to volume, so Airbus can't really use an A32NG against an all-composite, all-electric, bleedless engine 797.

They are able to do the A320 familly in full composite, they already performed A400M wings in full composite, central box of A380 (around 7m x 8m x 2.4 m), concerning electricity, Labinal (French) do harnessing for Airbus and Boeing, Radial (French) do most of connectors for Boeing, there is many cables manufacturer working for both (Draka Fileca, Nexans,..)(also French), electrical parts of GE engines (Snecma/Hypano Suiza)(French) actuators from Goodrich (important factories in France and UK), and some other technology which are on A380 and which are not on B787.

This list is not to say "hello, Frogs are comming back", but they have got all necessary technologies.

For Engines GE and RR are may the Best one followed by PW, but SNECMA have great knoledge in engine materials, accessory box (electrical production), and engines wiering.

Furthermore, new technology investment are so important, aeropace subcontracting compagnies are obliged to on a program representing 200+ planes per year.

Concerning composit capacity, the French DCN have already built 15 years ago few Fregates (Lafayette types) of 100m full in composite carbon.

In conclusion:

They intend to deliver A32NG (may be they will call him A360) in 2012, and they will used all necessary technology to be at the level of B797 (no choice).
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BG777300ER
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RE: What Is The Next Major Program From Airbus?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:15 am

Quoting Grantcv (Thread starter):
Replace the A340 with a twin to compete with the 773.

I think that this is what they should focus on. The 773ER has been selling VERY well lately and I bet Airbus would like a part of that.
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