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DAYflyer
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Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:06 am

A few interesting comments.

Speaking of Airliner Forecasts...
A-380 WhaleJet: Even Less Demand Than Earlier Predicted

We are now revising our current Global Fleet Demand Forecast to accommodate the decision by Boeing to build a follow-on to the 747.

As before, the net in-fleet requirements for airliners in the +400 seat category is not expected to be particularly robust in terms of growth. However, the advent of the 747-8 represents the injection of new dynamics in the demand mix.

First, if this slightly larger model has significantly better economics, it would face strong demand mostly as a one-on-one replacement for the -400, as well as some A-340s. Since used widebodies will likely have very limited aftermarket demand as passenger airplanes, this would tend to shove a lot of additional 747-400s into the cargo conversion arena, which could have no telling what effect on residual values.

However, one effect it could have would be to yank just enough potential orders out from under the A-380 to make that program really, really financially challenging for Airbus. Just a dozen feet longer than the -400, the new 747 would not face a world where relatively few airports could handle it, making it a much more flexible aircraft than the A-380. And if the 747-8 can deprive the A-380 of say, 50 or 60 orders it would have otherwise registered, it could make sleeping at night much more difficult for the folks at Toulouse.

You Want the A-380? Or What's Behind Door #3? Boeing by no means holds all the cards. The A-380's flying now. The 747-8 is at least three years away. That means the pressure's on Airbus to peddle as many A-380s as fast as possible in the next 12 months to keep potential customers from deciding to wait for the new Boeing.

So for airlines, it's going to be let's-make-a-deal time with the local Airbus salesman. That, however, puts pricing pressure on Airbus - pricing pressure created by what right now is essentially a concept airplane.

The pressure is also on at Airbus to assure that the A-380 doesn't disappoint when it comes to promised performance and delivery dates. Otherwise, the Europeans will find that they've essentially built the successor to the MD-11.

Regardless, The 747-8 Will Take A Toll. As it stands, the A-380 has about 160 orders, give or take what might be announced this week at the air show in Dubai. With the 747-8 on the horizon, our initial pass at global fleet needs now points to a demand for fewer than 350 A-380s over the next 15 years.
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klmcedric
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:10 am

This reaks of biased! A lot!
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:13 am

Perhaps, but he is frequently right. I found his comments appropriate.
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N79969
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:19 am

I think he is correct in his analysis. If you disagree, please explain how rather than simply using the word "bias" and dismissing the ideas.
 
klmcedric
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:19 am

Offcourse you do!
Anyway, I don't think we need another one of these threads on here, there
are currently a bunch of these going on and we all know the outcome.
Some people have started threads on site-related, about occuring problems
on A-net, and I fear that this has a lot of potential to once more becoming
one of these problems! Consider me out of here!!!!

If this thread would unlikely happen to turn out to be high quality I'll be
more then happy to join in again!

Greets
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:23 am

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 4):
Offcourse you do!
Anyway, I don't think we need another one of these threads on here, there
are currently a bunch of these going on and we all know the outcome.

Interesting considering you are the only one turning this thread into that type of discussion.
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boeingbus
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:23 am

The man doesn't like the A380. He never did and probably never will. Look, you are either on the side of VLA for the future or not. Simple as that... There are some point that I agree, like the MD11 analogy if performance targets are not met... Also, the 747 will apply pricing pressure for both Airbus and also for Boeing. Since, this is small makeover for the 747... Boeing is better to handle this.

Nevertheless, Airbus is not an amateur in making deals so if anyone writes off the A380, like Boyd has, than I think they are being foolish for a start and ignorant at best. Airbus does have some pro's when it comes to this competition and of course Boyd fails to mention like no real competitor (550 plus seating), its all new engineering/wing, more floor space for a creative first class cabin, and Leahey on the sales team.

But anyhew, we won't find out for another several years of what future the A380 has so lets wait and see...

Just my 2 cents.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:24 am

This is a unique thread based on new comments from Mike Boyd, like him or not, is an influential analyst. I would hope that someone would thoughtfully rebut his points rather than simply whine about a "bias" without being able to actually identify the supposed bias in the argument.
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:28 am

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 1):
This reaks of biased! A lot!

Annnnnnd, mark.
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
keesje
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:32 am

The widely respected Mr Baseler put down a good comparison for old & new aircraft technology recently.

I think one can translate it very well towards the A380 vs B747 (except 80's should be 60's).


http://www.boeing.com/randy/archives/2005/04/the_game_change.html


Aerodynamically, the A350, as proposed by Airbus, would incorporate some improvements. But it's still based on the A330, an airplane designed 15 years ago. And while the A350 would use the 787 engines, they'll be adapted to the A330 platform, so you won't get the efficiency of a totally integrated design.


Thanks for your wisdom Randy!
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:35 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 6):
Nevertheless, Airbus is not an amateur in making deals so if anyone writes off the A380, like Boyd has, than I think they are being foolish for a start and ignorant at best. Airbus does have some pro's when it comes to this competition and of course Boyd fails to mention like no real competitor (550 plus seating), its all new engineering/wing, more floor space for a creative first class cabin, and Leahey on the sales team.

I do not think he has "written off" the A380 per se. Rather he points out the demand for that size aircraft is not lively to begin with and that Boeing has potentially knocked some of the legs out from under the demand that exists for the A380.

I do agree with you though that he inaccurately lumps both aircraft into the 400+ seat category which misses the distinction that you point out.
 
JetMaster
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:36 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
it would face strong demand mostly as a one-on-one replacement for the -400, as well as some A-340s.

B747-8 as an A340 replacement? What is that guy talking about?

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
Since used widebodies will likely have very limited aftermarket demand as passenger airplanes

What a generalized statement...it simply depends on the aircraft type. Widebody is not widebody. And if he refers to used B744s, these have had no problems in finding new pax operators (e.g. Air India, Cathay Pacific, Corsair).

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 6):
Airbus does have some pro's when it comes to this competition and of course Boyd fails to mention like no real competitor (550 plus seating), its all new engineering/wing, more floor space for a creative first class cabin

You summed it up very well. Ignoring these aspects is not what one would expect from an (objective?) analyst.


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:39 am

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 4):
If this thread would unlikely happen to turn out to be high quality I'll be more then happy to join in again!

On that note, I think Boyd's comments are valid. There will be some operators out there that look at demand on some high-demand low-freq routes and may determine that the 450 seat option is a better one than the VLA 380.

He's correct in that it will have an impact--what the magnitude of the impact will be remains to be seen. But if some existing 744 operators opt for the updated whale, and do so at the expense of the 380, it would be detrimental for Airbus.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
Thanks for your wisdom Randy!

Couldn't agree more- he's speaking from forked tongue. The indictment against the 350 is the same grounds as what he's now going to have to backpedal from with the 748.

One critical distinction, however: the 787 was a clean sheet design, to which Airbus reluctantly responded out of competitive response. They are perfect competitors in midsize widebodies.

The 748 is not meant to be a straight up competitor for the 380, as it's a different seating size entirely, but Boeing certainly is targeting the 380 in its propaganda thus far.
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:41 am

Who is Mike Boyd (sorry for being ignorant)? And if he's a respected analyst (I'm guessing here) why does he use the term "WhaleJet" which I've never heard outside of A.net.......

Also why do people think that composites are the be-all-end-all in aviation?
Metal's aren't dead yet!

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
I think one can translate it very well towards the A380 vs B747 (except 80's should be 60's).

I do hope you mean the A380 is equivalent to the 787 in that comparison!
 
astuteman
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:43 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 3):
I think he is correct in his analysis. If you disagree, please explain how rather than simply using the word "bias" and dismissing the ideas.

OK, I'll have a go.

About 130 A388 Pax versions sold already.
FEDEX strongly beleieve that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's, and don't tell me they didn't know about the 748
Strong indications from existing customers (like SQ) re the take-up of existing options (could be 100 frames)

I've got to 430 so far.

There will be other 388 customers appearing (like Kingfisher). Furnish a number

Now factor in the A389, when it comes.

No question that this aircraft will have more advantages than the A388 in an admittedly small segment.
But based on comments from EK, VS, Fedex etc, 150-200 frames would be no great surprise.

500 sales is almost beyond question. 700 entirely possible (double boyd's forecast).

Never used the word "bias" once  Wink.
A
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:47 am

Astuteman,

Very nice work...Your post should be the template.
 
RedChili
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:54 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
the new 747 would not face a world where relatively few airports could handle it, making it a much more flexible aircraft than the A-380.

I've also seen Boeing claim this "advantage" of the B748 over the A380. But seriously, almost all major airports are ready, or will shortly be ready, to receive the A380. Those few airports which are so small that they will not prepare for the A380, will probably never get any B748 flights either.

Boyd himself suggests something like 50-60 sales for the B748, and I really don't think that those 50-60 airplanes will be used on flights to small, secondary airports. It's quite obvious that they will fly to LHR, LAX, HKG, JFK, JNB, BKK, SIN, SYD, NRT, etc. And they are ready for the A380.

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
With the 747-8 on the horizon, our initial pass at global fleet needs now points to a demand for fewer than 350 A-380s over the next 15 years.

An extremely low number, considering that Airbus has already sold almost half of that, one year before EIS.

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
Speaking of Airliner Forecasts...
A-380 WhaleJet: Even Less Demand Than Earlier Predicted

Hmmm. Calling the A380 a "WhaleJet" in a forecast which is made public, gives the impression that the author is trying to portray an emotinally negative picture of the A380 from the very beginning.
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:59 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
FEDEX strongly beleieve that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's

IMO, it's slightly more complicated than FX purchasing 200 new build A380s outright. FX predicted a fleet of 200 A380s in 20 years. A mix of A388s and A389s, new builds as well as conversions. Historically, at least, FX has frequently fulfilled its needs via conversions. Perhaps FedEx is anticipating the A380 will play-out in the marketplace much like the MD-11, DC-10, A306, and A310: modest success to failure as pax transports, which will be available on the after-market in the mid-term/long-term in adequate numbers and at reasonable prices for conversion to freighters.
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:05 am

The most compelling disadvantage of the A380 is that the 748 can fly into any airport that can take a 744, where modifications have to be made for A380's.

That said, I also think he is on the low side for the total # of frames over 15 years. The make or break for the whole A380 program will be EIS. If the plane is reliable in service and meets it's performance numbers, then we will see more of them.

One area I would be surprised at would be A380 freighters. 744 conversions would be a lot cheaper. I would be very surprised to see 200+ package freighters, whereas the 744 can be used for general cargo.
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lightsaber
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:12 am

First, I'm not the biggest Boyd fan, but to ignore his comments is foolish. While, like everyone, he has his biases, that doesn't mean he's wrong.

Quoting N79969 (Reply 7):
This is a unique thread based on new comments from Mike Boyd, like him or not, is an influential analyst.

 checkmark 

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
That means the pressure's on Airbus to peddle as many A-380s as fast as possible in the next 12 months to keep potential customers from deciding to wait for the new Boeing.

 checkmark  Once the A388 gets economy of scale, it has a niche that no other airframe is in. As much as I like the queen of the sky, the reality is that at certain airports, there is going to be a demand for the largest economical airframe.

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 4):
If this thread would unlikely happen to turn out to be high quality I'll be
more then happy to join in again!

Hopefully we can keep this one above water. Unfortunately, on a.net, this is a valid critisism when A or B is involved.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 6):
Airbus is not an amateur in making deals so if anyone writes off the A380, like Boyd has, than I think they are being foolish for a start and ignorant at best.

 checkmark  It could have been written the other way, the A388 sales have already put a hit in the 748 sales..

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
FEDEX strongly believe that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's,

Here is a customer I would listen too. FEDEX doesn't care about the nose door and definitely has the pulse on the package market. With UPS and FEDEX expanding into more niches of the global supply chain, its impossible for them not to grow. (Think of the size their China hubs will grow too...)

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):

Now factor in the A389, when it comes.

I'll once again note my opinion that this is the plane the A380 was meant to be.  bigthumbsup 

That said, I see a lot of 748F's going out the door for the next 15 years. Personally, I think the new EU/US open skies will do more against the A380 than the 748, but that's only my opinion.  spin 

FYI, the link to Boyd. Worth reading once a week:
http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

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zvezda
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:16 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 11):

B747-8 as an A340 replacement? What is that guy talking about?

The B747-8 replacing A340-600s seems unlikley but possible. The B747-8 replacing any other A340 variant seems absurd.

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 13):
And if he's a respected analyst (I'm guessing here) why does he use the term "WhaleJet" which I've never heard outside of A.net.......



Quoting RedChili (Reply 16):
Hmmm. Calling the A380 a "WhaleJet" in a forecast which is made public, gives the impression that the author is trying to portray an emotinally negative picture of the A380 from the very beginning.

I frequently see the nickname WhaleJet used outside A.net in a friendly and unbiased manner. Whales are cute and most people have positive associations with them. I just don't see how anyone can claim the WhaleJet nickname is in any way derogatory. It's nicer than calling the B747 JumboJet, which is long accepted.

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 13):

Also why do people think that composites are the be-all-end-all in aviation?
Metal's aren't dead yet!

Many believe the transition from aluminium to composites will be as significant as the transition from wood and fabric to aluminium. That may be optimistic, but it is not far-fetched. We'll have to wait and see.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
Strong indications from existing customers (like SQ) re the take-up of existing options (could be 100 frames)

I've heard nothing of the sort. Quite the opposite, everyone I know at SQ tell me there is not a snowball's chance in hell of SQ exercising WhaleJet options. We'll see in a few weeks whether they order the JumboJet or the WhaleJet. I would take odds that they order the JumboJet.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):

500 sales is almost beyond question.

I think 500 is optimistic -- very optimistic -- but I wouldn't say it's beyond question. I could happen -- especially if the new JumboJet fails to meet expectations.
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:28 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
About 130 A388 Pax versions sold already.
FEDEX strongly beleieve that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's, and don't tell me they didn't know about the 748
Strong indications from existing customers (like SQ) re the take-up of existing options (could be 100 frames)

FedEx has ponied up the money so I will take them at their word. I think your point is good.

I do not know about the "strong indications" from existing customers at Singapore Airlines though. Everything I have read indicates that they are not happy with Airbus right now which does not bode well for follow-on orders in the near or medium term in my view.

About a 1/3 of their pax airplanes are going to Emirates. I think those orders are good as gold. But I wonder how that will affect demand for the A380 from Emirates competitors. A lot of people seem to argue that other companies will have to follow their footsteps in order to offer a comparable product which result in a boom for A380s.

I disagree. In an odd way, I think the very large Emirates order may actually be bad for overall demand for the A380. I think that Airbus and the A380 program would have been better off had those 45 aircraft orders been spread between 3 or 4 carriers. I think the domino effect would have been greater for A380 sales.

The A380 represents such a leap in capacity that if other airlines were to bring in their own A380s to compete, the result would be bloodbath in fare yields. Even assuming that airlines are able to stimulate demand by offering low fares across the board, it would create a great deal of systemic risk for airlines to have that much capacity in the system year around.
 
N79969
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:29 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
About 130 A388 Pax versions sold already.
FEDEX strongly beleieve that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's, and don't tell me they didn't know about the 748
Strong indications from existing customers (like SQ) re the take-up of existing options (could be 100 frames)

FedEx has ponied up the money so I will take them at their word. I think your point is good.

I do not know about the "strong indications" from existing customers at Singapore Airlines though. Everything I have read indicates that they are not happy with Airbus right now which does not bode well for follow-on orders in the near or medium term in my view.

About a 1/3 of their pax airplanes are going to Emirates. I think those orders are good as gold. But I wonder how that will affect demand for the A380 from Emirates competitors. A lot of people seem to argue that other companies will have to follow their footsteps in order to offer a comparable product which result in a boom for A380s.

I disagree. In an odd way, I think the very large Emirates order may actually be bad for overall demand for the A380. I think that Airbus and the A380 program would have been better off had those 45 aircraft orders been spread between 3 or 4 carriers. I think the domino effect would have been greater for A380 sales.

The A380 represents such a leap in capacity that if other airlines were to bring in their own A380s to compete, the result would be bloodbath in fare yields. Even assuming that airlines are able to stimulate demand by offering low fares across the board, it would create a great deal of systemic risk for airlines to have that much capacity in the system year around.
 
astuteman
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:31 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 19):
That said, I see a lot of 748F's going out the door for the next 15 years. Personally, I think the new EU/US open skies will do more against the A380 than the 748, but that's only my opinion.

If there's 200 A38F's flying in 15-20 years, I'd not be at all surprised to see an even bigger number of 748F's flying.
 
RedChili
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 4:45 am

Wow! Already 23 replies, and nobody has so far written a bashing post like "Airbus is stupid" or "Boeing are idiots." Is this a sign that a.netters are indeed able of discussing A and B issues without flaming each other and/or A/B?
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MidnightMike
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 4:50 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 11):
What a generalized statement...it simply depends on the aircraft type. Widebody is not widebody. And if he refers to used B744s, these have had no problems in finding new pax operators (e.g. Air India, Cathay Pacific, Corsair).

Used 747-400's hitting the market can also be converted to freighters, so, Cargo Airlines, presently flying the older 747's may choose this time to replace their older 747's with newer 747's....

S

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
Quoting N79969 (Reply 3):
I think he is correct in his analysis. If you disagree, please explain how rather than simply using the word "bias" and dismissing the ideas.

OK, I'll have a go.

About 130 A388 Pax versions sold already.
FEDEX strongly beleieve that there's a market for 200+ freight A380's, and don't tell me they didn't know about the 748
Strong indications from existing customers (like SQ) re the take-up of existing options (could be 100 frames)

I've got to 430 so far.

There will be other 388 customers appearing (like Kingfisher). Furnish a number

Now factor in the A389, when it comes.

No question that this aircraft will have more advantages than the A388 in an admittedly small segment.
But based on comments from EK, VS, Fedex etc, 150-200 frames would be no great surprise.

500 sales is almost beyond question. 700 entirely possible (double boyd's forecast).

Never used the word "bias" once .
A

Your post is a theory and an opinion, nothing more, nothing less.

Michael Boyd, posted an opinion/theory as well, the only difference is Michael Boyd is paid for giving his opinions, and if he is wrong he is held accountable.
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 4:52 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 16):
Calling the A380 a "WhaleJet" in a forecast which is made public, gives the impression that the author is trying to portray an emotinally negative picture of the A380 from the very beginning.

I do not think so. The A380 is visually striking and stands out. It does not look like an eagle, falcon, or a hawk. Anyway, I do not think the plane's nickname has much to do with the substance of Boyd's commentary which is pretty substantive.
 
astuteman
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 4:58 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 20):
I think 500 is optimistic -- very optimistic -- but I wouldn't say it's beyond question.

I think you might have misunderstood. I was suggesting that 500 sales was almost certain to happen. Optimistically, perhaps, but, like Lightsaber, I believe that the A389 will prove to be the big seller in the long term.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 19):
the reality is that at certain airports, there is going to be a demand for the largest economical airframe.

Which will be the A389  Smile
 
MidnightMike
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 4:59 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 16):
Hmmm. Calling the A380 a "WhaleJet" in a forecast which is made public, gives the impression that the author is trying to portray an emotinally negative picture of the A380 from the very beginning.

The 747 has been called, the big pig, big iron, queen of the sky, etc. Nobody really cares about a nickname.

When I was in the Navy, the A3 was called the Whale, so what.
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 4:59 am

LOL this has to be a joke.. ofcourse Boeing's spindoctors would write something like that. Why would anyone believe it? Not saying Airbus is more right, I just think it is rediculous to take it so seriously. Ofcourse he wants to sell Boeing products. It is the company he works for. Airbus does not have to build as many A380s as possible just because a new version of the 747 is being made. The A380 might not be able to land at so many airports right now, but that will change just like the way the 747 changed that when that plane was a new model.

btw guys.. please stop calling him an analyst lol

[Edited 2005-11-21 21:02:58]
 
N79969
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:01 am

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 28):
The 747 has been called, the big pig, big iron, queen of the sky, etc. Nobody really cares about a nickname.

I thought the B727 was called "The Pig." That is a good point...in the US ugly names for aircraft are regarded as affectionate. I am not sure what Boyd's intention is though.
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:05 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 17):
Perhaps FedEx is anticipating the A380 will play-out in the marketplace much like the MD-11, DC-10, A306, and A310: modest success to failure as pax transports, which will be available on the after-market in the mid-term/long-term in adequate numbers and at reasonable prices for conversion to freighters.

Actually, quite the opposite: they said they expect many A380-800s to come onto the market once their owners start replacing them with A380-900s.

Quoting Starrion (Reply 18):
The most compelling disadvantage of the A380 is that the 748 can fly into any airport that can take a 744, where modifications have to be made for A380's.

I disagree. As was already pointed out, the 748 will fly to the big hub airports, not secondary airports. And these airports are the same ones that are now making the adjustments for the A380.
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:07 am

Comparatively speaking, the aircraft in question will both perform well, and the sales will be dictated by mission vs economics. Each will have certain advantadges over the other on various routes and profiles, with the A-380 being the winner in it's proper place: High density requiring 500+ seats. The 748 will be purchased for and used on routes requiring less than 550 seats but more than the 777 can carry. I do believe there were/are operators that were or are considering the A-350 at this moment who may delay such a purchase with the launch of this new 747 derivative-at least until they have a chance to hear what Boeing has to say.
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:13 am

Quoting AirPacific747 (Reply 29):
Ofcourse he wants to sell Boeing products. It is the company he works for

Why would he want to sell Boeing airplanes? He is president of the Boyd Group and is not employed by Boeing.

Quoting AirPacific747 (Reply 29):
please stop calling him an analyst

Why? He is the president of a company which acts as consultors and advisors to the aviation industry.
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:15 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 33):

I'm pretty sure Boeing paid him to say that. It is so far out that its rediculous. The A380 already sold well.. it is not even done with its testing yet
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:19 am

Quoting AirPacific747 (Reply 34):
I'm pretty sure Boeing paid him to say that. It is so far out that its rediculous. The A380 already sold well.. it is not even done with its testing yet

Source? Or are you just guessing? He's an analyst, it's his job to make educated guesses. I suspect your guess is not educated. Just because you don't like what he has to say doesn't mean he's in Boeing's pocket.
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:25 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 27):
Optimistically, perhaps, but, like Lightsaber, I believe that the A389 will prove to be the big seller in the long term.

 checkmark 

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 31):

Actually, quite the opposite: they said they expect many A380-800s to come onto the market once their owners start replacing them with A380-900s.

Now that you mention it, I do recall FEDEX saying that. But with FEDEX grabbing up the used airframes, the resale will allow the A389's to progress into the market.

My one worry on the A389 is will it allow a high enough floor loading for attractive freighter conversion? Notice I'm asking. One reason the 74X family has had excellent resale is the high allowed floor loading once converted to the freighter configuration.

Quoting AirPacific747 (Reply 29):

btw guys.. please stop calling him an analyst lol

Boyd is employed by his airport customers. Boeing? nyet. He is an airport demand analyst. Love him or hate him, Boyd has earned the title. Oh, he has nothing to do with Boeing sales! Why else would he be praising the E-170/190???? And congrats, in the first "high brow" A380 thread in a long time, you were the first to take the low road.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 20):
Many believe the transition from aluminium to composites will be as significant as the transition from wood and fabric to aluminium. That may be optimistic, but it is not far-fetched. We'll have to wait and see.

In the long run, true. However, no matter the material an airframe is made from, basic economics favor the larger airframe (if it can be filled).

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):

Thanks for your wisdom Randy!

 rotfl  Ok, it is funny how derivative is good on the 748 and not the A350 (which is as much of a derivative of the A330 now as the 737NG is of the 707...). Then again, until there is another fuel efficient nose door freighter, there will be a home for the 748. (Look, I love seeing the A124's, but they just don't have the economics to belong in the major cargo fleets. In specialized fleets, heck yes.)

Folks, I'm so happy to finally see a thread on the A380/748 that is civil. Man I hope it stays this way.

Do I also hope to see the 748 Pax version at LAX? Yes! But then again, I truly feel most a.net members like seeing variety.  bigthumbsup 

Now they just need to build the west terminal at LAX for all of these big beauties...  spin  (Please, don't flame the Tom Bradly terminal. I already know what its like.)

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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:33 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 36):
My one worry on the A389 is will it allow a high enough floor loading for attractive freighter conversion? Notice I'm asking. One reason the 74X family has had excellent resale is the high allowed floor loading once converted to the freighter configuration.

The current 380F has a floor loading of only 7 lbs/sq in, while the 744 is 9.9 lbs/sq in. So, I think the conversion of 380 to 380F won't be that attractive for carriers other than Fedex or UPS.
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:34 am

Quoting AirPacific747 (Reply 34):
I'm pretty sure Boeing paid him to say that. It is so far out that its rediculous. The A380 already sold well.. it is not even done with its testing yet

How are you "pretty sure"? Your assertion is wrong.

Why is it so far out? Why not explain the flaws in his argument which is quite detailed and not resort to attacks on his character?
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:35 am

Quoting AirPacific747 (Reply 29):
btw guys.. please stop calling him an analyst lol

Why? Because you happen to disagree with his opinion?  sarcastic 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:36 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 36):
In the long run, true. However, no matter the material an airframe is made from, basic economics favor the larger airframe (if it can be filled).

I think Alcoa and the other aluminium firms are trying out new aluminium alloys to improve (reduce) weight and strength etc.
Granted composites don't fatigue, but at the moment the cost of manufacturing (and repair?) of metals still beats composites until they are fully mature.

Does anyone know about the new recyclability rules that are coming into place for manufacturers (only Europe?)? I know auto manufacturers have to guarantee that X% of their product can be recycled.
What about the 787 (which is of course mostly composite) and the A380 VTP and HTP, say? Or should I start a new thread for this?
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:38 am

The A380 has impressive economies of scale, but this only works for flights that have high demand year-round. Most of these are slot-restricted flights at high-in-demand hub airports, an artificial situation created by governments eager to protect their flag carriers and domestic air travel market share..

Other airports are being built at cities worldwide eager to improve their economies. If these are used as alternatives to hubs, this won't bode well for the A380's market case...

The A380 will also not work in seasonal markets, if airlines want maximum utilization... If airlines can't fill up 747s now, then how are they gonna fill up A380s?

As for Fedex and their claim for "200" A-380 freighter examples, well, airlines have been seriously mistaken in the past about what will happen in the future. With a future used 747-400 freighter market at cheap prices from passenger conversions, this projection will be a challenge to fulfill.

But if Airbus can do it, all power to 'em! The more successful they are, the better Boeing will have to be to compete. And vice versa...

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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:10 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 5):
Interesting considering you are the only one turning this thread into that type of discussion.

No, he is NOT the only one... "We" are simply getting too tired of these kind of arguing... "We" don't understand why so many people spend so much time and energy criticizing the A380...

DH

PS - "We" = non Boeing cheerleaders
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:15 pm

Quoting DistantHorizon (Reply 43):
No, he is NOT the only one... "We" are simply getting too tired of these kind of arguing... "We" don't understand why so many people spend so much time and energy criticizing the A380...

The simple thing to do in such cases is to simply ignore the thread rather than preventing others from discussing something that interests them.

Like I said before, Mike Boyd just added his voice to the debate which brings another perspective to the question.

Besides that, the 747-8 was launched less than a week ago...how can one complain about being tired of this kind of debate?

[Edited 2005-11-22 15:19:48]
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:17 pm

If in 1969 someone would have said that in 35 years time the 747 would have been produced +/- 1300 times,that person would in most likelyhood have been called a psychopath.
Why should that not happen to the whalejet.
Some food for thought
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Tue Nov 22, 2005 11:27 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 31):
Quoting Leelaw (Reply 17):
Perhaps FedEx is anticipating the A380 will play-out in the marketplace much like the MD-11, DC-10, A306, and A310: modest success to failure as pax transports, which will be available on the after-market in the mid-term/long-term in adequate numbers and at reasonable prices for conversion to freighters.

Actually, quite the opposite: they said they expect many A380-800s to come onto the market once their owners start replacing them with A380-900s.

Here's what FedEx's David Sutton is reported to have said at the Cargo Facts Conference:

Meanwhile, FedEx has an eye on the ex-passenger A380 fleet for the longer
term, having traditionally bolstered its fleet of new-build freighters with
secondhand, cargo-converted aircraft. "As the passenger airlines take
the -900, they'll push their -800s over for passenger-to
freighter-conversions - probably around 2020," said Sutton

I'm not sure why this necessarily contradicts my earlier point?
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:09 am

 flamed  by my a.net fellas  Smile

Ok, I admit that it wasn't the best idea to say what I said outloud, but I still totally disagree with him. It has nothing to do about being on Airbus's or Boeing's side, I just think he is totally wrong.
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:19 am

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 31):
As was already pointed out, the 748 will fly to the big hub airports, not secondary airports. And these airports are the same ones that are now making the adjustments for the A380.

There are 210 airports that can accommodate the JumboJet. Are there even 21 airports that can accommodate the WhaleJet?

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 36):
However, no matter the material an airframe is made from, basic economics favor the larger airframe (if it can be filled).

Not necessarily. Notice that nearly all small insects are able to fly. Boeing are claiming that the B747-8 will have lower CASM than the A380-800. Boeing's claims usually turn out to be understated. We'll have to wait and see.
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:22 am

Quoting AirPacific747 (Reply 47):
It has nothing to do about being on Airbus's or Boeing's side, I just think he is totally wrong.

Then explain why. His assumptions and logic are straightforward. He states that demand for the A380 is not particularly robust to begin with and the entry of the 747-8 altered the situation for the worse for Airbus.
 
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RE: Mike Boyd: A-380 Vs 747-8

Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:34 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 11):
B747-8 as an A340 replacement? What is that guy talking about?

So the 346 was a very good 744 replacement, but the 346 can not be replaced by 748? Very objective!

Quoting RedChili (Reply 16):
Those few airports which are so small that they will not prepare for the A380, will probably never get any B748 flights either.

If an airport can get away without investing a lot of money to accommodate the 380, it will not do it, and hope that the airlines will use 777, 340 or 747 instead.
Whether all those airports not accepting 380 the next ten years will get 748 depends on 748 sales, not much else.
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