Halibut
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Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 2:30 am

Boeing had a great couple of days in Dubai , no doubt about that . But no one bought the passenger version of there recently launched 747-8 . What's up will that ?

Are airlines interested in Boeing's pax 747-8 ?

http://www.forbes.com/2005/11/22/boe...umbo-cx_cn_1122autofacescan03.html

Boeing's 747-8 family does include the 747-8 Intercontinental passenger airplane alongside the 747-8 Freighter airplane. Yet last week's orders from Cargolux, based in Luxembourg, and Japan-based Nippon Cargo Airlines, were for ten and eight 747-8 Freighters respectively, and Boeing has yet to ink any passenger jet deals.

Halibut
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EI747SYDNEY
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 2:42 am

There will be customers.

Dont you worry...

There's BA and Eva Air to consider...

Rob  wave 
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DeltaWings
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 2:51 am

Quoting Halibut (Thread starter):
Are airlines interested in Boeing's pax 747-8 ?

Boeing even reported that pax orders for the 748 this year are highly unlikely.
Next year though, there will most likely be some orders by various Asian based airlines, like CX, JL, or even CA maybe.
The 748 is not that big of a risk for airlines that want to enter the VLA (very large aircraft) market, so that may generate orders by some unexpected airlines.

Lets hope it will be as successful, as the 744 has been.

DeltaWings
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airfrnt
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:09 am

I really think the 748 is build and designed for BA. BA has made it clear over and over that they are unconfortable with the A380 until it proves itself, and until the market proves that it can sustain a plane the size of the A380. In addition with the new US/EU openskies agreement BA probably will try to increase their transatlantic flights to more cities across the United States for which it needs smaller planes ala the 787 rather then 747/777/380.
 
Glareskin
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:13 am

JL, ANA. Less certain KL and BA and probably in better times UA. Just my  twocents 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:57 am

Yes there will be buyers. NH is probably unlikely (they seem to have hitched their wagon to the 773 and 773ER) and I imagine JL might do the same, as well (since they also operate the 773).

But the B747-8I program will be around as long as the 747-8F program is, and that should be a decade or more. Who knows how air travel loads will shake out. If it increases as much as Airbus believes it will, an A380-sized plane can't land everywhere, so by default airlines facing capacity issues will need to look at the B747-8I for those airports that cannot be served with an A388.
 
Halibut
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:21 am

The question I have is , can Boeing's 747-8 in any way hurt A380's sales . I am beginning to think not !

Would it be in Boeing's best interest to offer the 747-8 very low or even at a lost just to reduce a380 sales ?

Halibut
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:27 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 6):
The question I have is, can Boeing's 747-8 in any way hurt A380's sales. I am beginning to think not!

In any way? Yes they will. Some airlines will buy B747-8Is to replace their 744s just because they now have a choice, where as before they had to downgauge to 773ERs/A346HGWs or upgauge to the A388.

In any "meaningful" way? As in hurting A380 sales so much that Airbus will be in trouble with the program? No, I do not believe they will. Airlines who have ordered the A388 didn't want 747s larger then the B747-8I, so I don't see them wanting the B747-8I over their existing or planned A380 orders.

Quote:
Would it be in Boeing's best interest to offer the 747-8 very low or even at a lost just to reduce A380 sales?

No, because if Boeing really has spent $4 billion (directly or indirectly) on the program, they cannot afford to give it away in an attempt to try and de-rail the A380 program. Even if they only spend $2 billion or less, it would only open them up to shareholder lawsuits to be so fiscally reckless.
 
aeropiggot
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:15 am

Quote:
Stitch: Even if they only spend $2 billion or less, it would only open them up to shareholder lawsuits to be so fiscally reckless.

That is exactly right, people would be lining up to file lawsuits against Boeing management.
A scientist discovers that which exists, an engineer creates that which never was.
 
trex8
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:23 am

Quoting EI747SYDNEY (Reply 1):
Eva Air

BR have already gone the 773ER way, CI would be a good bet though for passenger 747-8.
 
flyinghippo
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:03 am

Quoting EI747SYDNEY (Reply 1):
There's BA and Eva Air to consider

BR is NOT going to order 747-8I!!! After their fleet replacement is done, 773ER will be their long range, largest capacity aircraft.
 
Halibut
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:00 am

Quoting AeroPiggot (Reply 8):

Quote:
Stitch: Even if they only spend $2 billion or less, it would only open them up to shareholder lawsuits to be so fiscally reckless.

That is exactly right, people would be lining up to file lawsuits against Boeing management.

Then I guess it wouldn't be in there best interest .

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
But the B747-8I program will be around as long as the 747-8F program is, and that should be a decade or more.

Agreed ,
747-8F will be around for some time . From what I've read the 747-8F is a very impressive a/c .

Can the 747-8 pax verision be assembled in the line as the freighter ?

Halibut
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astuteman
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:35 am

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 2):
The 748 is not that big of a risk for airlines that want to enter the VLA (very large aircraft) market, so that may generate orders by some unexpected airlines.

I think this reason will cause some airlines to prefer the 748 over the A380 in the early years, until the technical risks associated with the A380 have worked their way out of the system.
As Stitch said, this might deflect some sales, but it's unlikely to harm the A380 programme in any major way.

Quoting Halibut (Reply 6):
Would it be in Boeing's best interest to offer the 747-8 very low or even at a lost just to reduce a380 sales ?

Definitely not! Because of a) the lower risk of the 748, and b) the fact that the 2 products don't compete DIRECTLY, Boeing should make the most of its margins, and forget about the A380.
 
Oz777
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:50 am

Little bird tells me that a South Pacific based airline (who just happened to order the first B747-400) are keen to be first in the queue for the pax version.

Thinking is to look at 3 airframes plus three further options.

Watch this space!!

OZ777
 
A388
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:00 pm

I will join the ones who already mentioned the potential airlines for the 747-8. I also agree the 747-8 almost immediately reminded me of BA but also JL. These airlines are the most likely airlines to be the first to order the passenger version of the 747-8. I would also add CX to this list. Like others have already mentioned I think BA and CX still need to be convinced about the A380. But looking at LHR's situation I think BA will eventually order the A380 or a stretch version of the 747-8 if Boeing will offer this in the future. Other airlines I see as likely candidates are: KL/AF, CI, QF, UA and/or NW (in the very far future though).

A388
 
boeingbus
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:17 pm

Can I just say that if an airline that has A380 on order and decides to go for the 748 early next year... DOES NOT mean they will no longer need the A380. As for many "super-sized" airlines the 748 will compliment, let me say it again - compliment the A380... like brother and sister... a one big happy family... hard to imagine for some on here...

So who will buy the 748? I think most if not all current 744 owners are going to look at this bird. My guess would be a 40% retention rate. All others will opt for the A380 or downsize to the 773ER...

Just my 2 cents...

Cheers,

Ric
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A388
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:29 pm

Talking about the A380, does anyone know the status of the rumoured interest of SA for the A380? I haven't read anything about this in a long time.

A388
 
MarshalN
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:38 pm

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 15):
Can I just say that if an airline that has A380 on order and decides to go for the 748 early next year... DOES NOT mean they will no longer need the A380. As for many "super-sized" airlines the 748 will compliment, let me say it again - compliment the A380... like brother and sister... a one big happy family... hard to imagine for some on here...

So who will buy the 748? I think most if not all current 744 owners are going to look at this bird. My guess would be a 40% retention rate. All others will opt for the A380 or downsize to the 773ER...

One of the few sensible posts about the A380 vs 747-8 I've seen on a.net

Well said  Smile. I wish most people wouldn't just blabber on and on about how the 747-8 will kill A380 sales, blah blah (and funny, the debate never seems to go the other way).
 
BG777300ER
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:19 pm

Theres gotta be at least one right, come on, we have to see an actual 748 in real airline livery...SOMEONE ORDER ONE PEASE!!!
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Carpethead
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:40 pm

Quoting BG777300ER (Reply 18):
real airline livery

CV & KZ have more color than say AF. I have no problem with either airline livery. And except for you, nobody is worrying about if a pax airline ordering until next year (Boeing included). So long as the freighter orders come trickling in, pax order could be zero for a couple more years. After that Boeing has to worry.


Speaking of AF, I wonder if they will order a few down the road. They have a handful of 744/74Es that could see replacement early next decade. It's powered by GE not RR so there's a chance.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:01 pm

Well, one would think that it has a pretty good potential at Singapore, Qantas, BA, China Airlines, Cathay, United, and all the other small nich 747-400 operators.

I heard that Qantas aren't too pleased with how the A380 is going, as they have had to significantly reduce to seat count due the airframe weight issues and Airbus' stance that it could be recovered via a reduction in interior weight.
Qantas' problem is the seats they purchased aren't light, therefore they had to reduce the number.

If this is industry wide, then the 747-8 could garner a healthy share of the market.

I didn't notice any A380 orders are Dubai either????
 
sq212
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:33 pm

All operators that would need a capacity between 350 to 500 pax in one go are potential users of 748. Would like to see KE, JL, MH, PR, and a couple of Chinese operators going for this type aside from already mentioned candidates.

Like the chances of orders to show up next year.

Cheers
 
scotron11
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:46 pm

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 15):

So who will buy the 748? I think most if not all current 744 owners are going to look at this bird. My guess would be a 40% retention rate. All others will opt for the A380 or downsize to the 773ER..

Can't argue with that. There sure are tons of 744 operators out there, and with an 748 EIS of 2008/2009, plenty of them will need replacing.

I am still kinda "gobsmacked" at the low-key go-ahead announcement for the 748. After years, months and days of speculation, will they, won't they, they finally announced it. I really couldn't imagine the demise of the 747.
 
Halophila
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:46 pm

I'm hoping NZ and QF will buy at least a few frames. I agree with everyone here saying that any operator of the 744 might find it in their fleets at some stage of the game.

I can't wait until Dec 7th... My prediction: a mix of 787s to replace 767's, 773ERs to replace 743s, 777LR as a new a/c type to do US east coast (but maybe not europe on the nonstop/1-stop routing), and maybe if we're lucky, 748s to compliment their 388s on the high capacity long-haul routes.
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manni
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:26 pm

Quoting Halophila (Reply 23):
and maybe if we're lucky, 748s to compliment their 388s on the high capacity long-haul routes.

If the decision is due december 7th, you can rule out an order for the 748 from QF in the near future, if Allan Mulally's comment in this article is correct.

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...s+-+special+report+on+the+new.html

The passenger version, stretched by only 3.6m and dubbed the “Intercontinental”, will follow but has yet to attract a launch operator, a situation that Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and chief executive Alan Mulally expects to be rectified “next year”. It will accommodate around 34 more passengers in a typical three-class layout and fly around 1,570km (850nm) further than today’s -400.
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astuteman
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:29 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 20):
I heard that Qantas aren't too pleased with how the A380 is going, as they have had to significantly reduce to seat count due the airframe weight issues and Airbus' stance that it could be recovered via a reduction in interior weight.
Qantas' problem is the seats they purchased aren't light, therefore they had to reduce the number.

I heard.........from NAV20  Wink

Ah, bulk buying power! No wonder EK bought 43 - they get the lightweight A388's that they can put 650 seats in.... Smile
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:57 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 25):
I heard.........from NAV20

Ah, bulk buying power! No wonder EK bought 43 - they get the lightweight A388's that they can put 650 seats in....

So, whats your point? I haven't heard anything about Emirates, just Qantas. Take if for what its worth, someone in the industry sharing what they have heard, nothing more.

I'll listen to you if you tell me something you've heard about ship building or some make believe A340/A350 derivative  Smile
 
Halibut
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:09 pm

From Manni's link :

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...s+-+special+report+on+the+new.html

He claims that the –8 will offer 8% lower seat-kilometre costs than the 747-400 and 6% lower than those of the A380, but with trip costs “25-30% less than the A380”, principally because the Boeing aircraft will weigh 13% less per seat.

I find these #s' ingtriqueing . But are they accurate ? If so , then I do see airlines buying the 747-8 . But still no orders yet !  no 


Halibut
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piercey
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 11:24 pm

You guys are surprise at no orders? I'm not! How many potential customers have we listed have either:

a: financial problems
b: have ordered an A380 and is waiting to what's going to happen
or c: have a younger fleet or are fine with older planes (NW)

After that, I can only think of CX, JL, AT, and SS. Maybe BR, but we know that that's a wildcard.
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
 
astuteman
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 11:36 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 26):
Take if for what its worth, someone in the industry sharing what they have heard, nothing more.



Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 26):
I'll listen to you if you tell me something you've heard about ship building

You're probably right Shenzen. Those of us who aren't "in the industry" don't have anything worthwhile to contribute to aviation forums, do we? Maybe we should all just leave, and let you get on with it...  Smile
 
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distanthorizon
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Wed Nov 23, 2005 11:38 pm

Quoting Halibut (Reply 6):
Would it be in Boeing's best interest to offer the 747-8 at a lost just to reduce a380 sales ?

That is called "dumping", and is illegal - in the States and in the EU.

DH
Regards
Nelson SE
 
tockeyhockey
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:50 am

i think it's pretty clear that the 748 will become a mainstay of several US carriers, most notably UA and NW (if they can survive bankruptcy).

there is too much political pressure against making airport improvements for the a380. the 748 will be the biggest passenger airliner flying out of US airports for many years to come.
 
bobnwa
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 2:11 am

Quoting Tockeyhockey (Reply 31):
i think it's pretty clear that the 748 will become a mainstay of several US carriers, most notably UA and NW (if they can survive bankruptcy).

In your opinion which US passenger carriers other than UA and NW will get the 748?
 
piercey
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 2:18 am

Quoting Bobnwa (Reply 32):
In your opinion which US passenger carriers other than UA and NW will get the 748?

US and DL won't touch them with a mile long stick.

AA only if they can run a lot of frequencies and can compliment 777, but I doubt it

CO I can actually see ordering it. They have a route network that can compliment it greatly and could free up some 777/787 for asia.
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
 
baw716
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 2:55 am

Greetings all,
While it is correct that there have not been any orders for the passenger version of the aircraft, there will be some orders, eventually. I was disappointed to learn that the passenger aircraft will have a shorter fuselage than the cargo version. To me, that doesn't make a great deal of sense; the idea is to have a "larger" 747 to compete in the same markets as the A380.

Note that I say "compete" and not match, because Boeing is conversative enough to understand that there will need to be a -400 replacement in the next 8-10 years, the question is how to redesign it to be attractive to airlines, especially with the advent of the 777-300ER? The 777-300 carries nearly as many passengers as the -400 and with the advent of the A380, Boeing will need a larger version of the 747 to make it attractive to new buyers.

If Boeing were to offer a choice between the current shorter fuselage 747-8 vs. a longer 747-8 fuselage for passenger aircraft, the customer will be presented with opportunity to purchase either size airframe. It will also be able to make a combi aircraft; which has been attractive to markets in which the freight and passenger lads merit the use of one aircraft. So, really, Boeing is moving forward with the 787 technology, while preserving the aircraft which has to this day, earned its reputation as the queen of the skies.

Until the A380 goes into operation next year, I don't think you'll see many orders for the 747-8 passenger. However, if what I believe will happen to the A380 will come about, then if Boeing is ready with a solid 747 alternative ready to go to market in 2009, there will be plenty of options that could be cancelled for the A380 that could be converted to the 747-8. I recognize this is wishful thinking; however, Airbus continues to struggle with weight issues on the A380 and at the end of the day, I don't think the aircraft will have the range capability to make it in the ULH market. If the A380 can't make 7000 miles, then the plane is just a big high density aircraft.

What interests me is that why are there not more orders for the 772LR. So far in testing, it is proving to be everything that Boeing has promised, and more. But alas, this is for another thread.

baw716
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Morvious
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:07 am

Is there a combo availible for the 747-800?

If there will be, KL will be a future customer. Same amount of pax, but a little more cargo seems to do it pretty well for them  Smile

I don't see them buying total new 747-800 all PAX though!
have a good day, Stefan van Hierden
 
astuteman
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:10 am

Quoting Baw716 (Reply 34):
If the A380 can't make 7000 miles, then the plane is just a big high density aircraft.

You're absolutely right, but who's questioning the A380's ability to exceed 7000 miles?
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:13 am

Quoting Morvious (Reply 35):
Is there a combo availible for the 747-800?

If there will be, KL will be a future customer. Same amount of pax, but a little more cargo seems to do it pretty well for them

I don't see them buying total new 747-800 all PAX though!

somebody posted last week in one of the other threads on the 747-8 that there are new regulations coming in for combis and that KL might not be able to replace their current ones when they come up for retirement . I posted asking for more info - but haven't heard anything - hopefully if someone does know more about this they will respond  Smile
 
CHI787ORD
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 7:33 am

AI will have to replace their large but aging 747 fleet soon. Unless they are using the T7s to replace them (doesnt seem like it), there could be another AI boeing order for 747adv in 4-6 years. This is all assuming that AI doesnt go for the A380. AI is more or less a traditional Boeing customer.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 9:45 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 29):
You're probably right Shenzen. Those of us who aren't "in the industry" don't have anything worthwhile to contribute to aviation forums, do we? Maybe we should all just leave, and let you get on with it...

Why are you miss quoting? I guess you couldn't search your answer.

Cheers
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:14 am

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 39):
If Boeing were to offer a choice between the current shorter fuselage 747-8 vs. a longer 747-8 fuselage for passenger aircraft, the customer will be presented with opportunity to purchase either size airframe.

There is in reality only one 748.

But the pax version has the long upper deck hump of the -300/400 while the F version has the short hump of the -100/200.

To compensate for the lighter short hump and keep balance the F has a slightly larger extra fuselage plug in front of the wing compared to the -400.

If they made a pax version with the long F fuselage AND the long and heavier hump, then it would have called for some major redesign.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
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Aloha717200
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:34 am

Northwest will order them to replace their DC-9s.  Wink


But seriously, I expect there will be a few orders. I wouldn't be surprised if a few A380 operators were to also buy 748, since although they compete within the same market - VLA - they aren't true competitors when it comes to seat count. The A380 seats 100 more people than the 748. It's entirely possible for a carrier to operate them both in a complimentary fashion, 748 taking over routes that are just slightly too small for the A380, or routes that would require more frequency rather than more seats.

Will many airlines do this? doubtful. If it happens it might be one to three carriers that would opt to fly both in their fleets. But the VLA market isnt that big to begin with so that's actually pretty decent.

I think the 748I will be a slow but steady seller, maybe selling 2-5 a month, perhaps, once the program gets going.
 
manni
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:45 pm

Quoting Baw716 (Reply 34):
Until the A380 goes into operation next year, I don't think you'll see many orders for the 747-8 passenger. However, if what I believe will happen to the A380 will come about, then if Boeing is ready with a solid 747 alternative ready to go to market in 2009, there will be plenty of options that could be cancelled for the A380 that could be converted to the 747-8.

Sorry for being curious, but could you share with us what you believe will happen to the A380?  scratchchin 
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Shenzhen
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 4:05 pm

Flight International now has a list of potential 747-800 customers.

Cheers
 
Oz777
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 4:50 pm

One of the design issues with the B747-8 is the ability of the aircraft (in pax version) to fit at existing gates. When you consider that the freight versions sit at different ramps, the extra length is not an issue - but weight and balance will be.

The passenger version is being optimised for EXISTING B747 operators and their current route networks. When you track who Boeing is talking to at the moment (earnestly rather than 'sales calls'), it makes for some very interesting readind and speculation.

Forget SQ (unless the 380 becomes a dog - they are looking for capacity)
Forget QF at the moment - again the 380 is fine for their trans-pacific and Kangaroo operations.

UA and NW are possibles but are a much longer term client if they survive. Forget CO - they are committed to the "frequency beats capacity" model and will retain the T7 as their largest unit.

KL, OZ, CX are there, as is NZ who will be looking to replace their existing B744's about 2009/10, right in the slot for Boeing once the 787 technology is proved. JAL is interesting, but again there are several issues that mitigate against them plumping for the 747-8 - one being a consertative approach to the new composite construction until it is proved. That in itself makes them a late starter.

OZ777
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 5:18 pm

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 15):
So who will buy the 748? I think most if not all current 744 owners are going to look at this bird. My guess would be a 40% retention rate. All others will opt for the A380 or downsize to the 773ER...

Are you predicting 40% of operators or 40% of airframes?
 
cloudy
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Thu Nov 24, 2005 5:43 pm

Quoting DistantHorizon (Reply 30):
That is called "dumping", and is illegal - in the States and in the EU.



Quoting Oz777 (Reply 44):
JAL is interesting, but again there are several issues that mitigate against them plumping for the 747-8 - one being a consertative approach to the new composite construction until it is proved. That in itself makes them a late starter.

If I remember correctly, there will not be that much "new composite" construction in the 747-8. The main improvement will come from the engines. Boieng also intends to use new alloys initially developed by alluminum suppliers to compete with composites for the Sonic Cruiser. Some other systems will be modernized with 7E7 technology. But no major structures will be replaced with composites....or so I have heard.
 
co7772wuh
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Fri Nov 25, 2005 9:33 pm

Quoting Piercey (Reply 33):
CO I can actually see ordering it. They have a route network that can compliment it greatly and could free up some 777/787 for asia.

CO's asia stategy certainly looks impressive & even better if they get Shanghai in 06' ? However , I just do not see them going for the 747-8 . Boeing's 777s & 787s appear to fit the needs at this time . However , it would be great to see a CO 747-8 .
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Sat Nov 26, 2005 12:37 am

Quoting A388 (Reply 14):
Other airlines I see as likely candidates are: KL/AF

I think KLM won't be one of the airlines who will order the B747-800. KLM only flies like 5 full pax B747-400's and those aren't even full for most of it's flights. There won't be any combi Jumbo coming, so I think KLM will replace it's full pax Jumbo's with B777-300's. KLM's CEO Leo van Wijk said that only 5 planes of one type is not enough to suffice an order.

Cheers!  wave 
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art
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RE: Boeing 747-8 : Will Airlines Buy Pax Version?

Sat Nov 26, 2005 2:47 am

Quoting Baw716 (Reply 34):
If the A380 can't make 7000 miles, then the plane is just a big high density aircraft.

If the a.net Aircraft Data figures are right, the range is 8000 miles. No way would it have gone down 1000 miles. If anything, the "performance better than expected" comment to SQ suggests range 8000+ miles.

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