BlueSky1976
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Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:14 am

So...
We're into a third day of Dubai Air Show.
So far no announcement about the famed A350 order from EK. The more into the air show we are, the more I think that EK is willing to wait it out and actually becoma a launch customer for 787-10 with 50 frames. My reasoning behind it is as follows:

1) Tim Clark got pissed off at Leahy back in Paris when Mr. Big Mouth was telling everyone and their mother that Airbus will announce the EK order at Le Bourget,

2) Boeing finally addressed the EK request for a 787-derivative that's bigger than -9 and presented it in its "proposed" form,

3) If EKs A350 order was solid, it would have been already announced at Dubai - especially since Tim Clark said they would make decision in October,

4) No way their newly ordered 777-300ERs and -200LRs will be used as a replacement for 777-200ERs. Everyone here knows EK wants a 300 seater with a range of 777-200ER but with smaller fuel burn.

So here it is: Clark will wait until Boeing gets the official go-ahead for 787-10 in order to formally offer it to EK. The 787 family has a lower list-price than A350. Factor in the launch customer discount. If Airbus will not beat the deal, then I think we'll see the EK actually getting 787-10.

Anyone care to elaborate?

[Edited 2005-11-23 00:15:29]
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keesje
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:23 am

Could be however I doubt EK is wlling to wait for 6 years or so.

Boeing upgraded the -9. They probably have their hands full on three significantly different versions already.

How hard does EK want the extra 18 feet, I don´t know..
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whitehatter
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:25 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Thread starter):
The 787 family has a lower list-price than A350

not necessarily, you are basing that on two assumptions. One is that the Airbus A350 price will not be heavily discounted, the other that Boeing will not substantially jack up the cost of a 787-10 over the stated cost of the 788 and 789. Engines are going to be more expensive for a start.

As for the EK potential order for the A350, nobody was saying it was going to happen today except speculators. That 'order' can't even be regarded as a possibility at the moment as EK could decide to wait and see who offers what. Their growth plans may not require anything in that sector for a while, if at all.

If anything is happening it will be behind closed doors.
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DfwRevolution
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:28 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Thread starter):
So far no announcement about the famed A350 order from EK. The more into the air show we are, the more I think that EK is willing to wait it out and actually becoma a launch customer for 787-10 with 50 frames.

I don't think EK are waiting for the 787-10X so they can order it, they are simply waiting to evaluate both aircraft. This is only logical, as they can arrive at the best solution. I see nothing that would suggest they (yet) have a preference for the 787-10X.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Thread starter):
So here it is: Clark will wait until Boeing gets the official go-ahead for 787-10 in order to formally offer it to EK

What everyone is waiting for is a thumbs-up from GE or RR in regards to the high-end thrust of the GEnx or T1000.

EK wants an aircraft of A350-900 size but 789 range, but the engine OEM's have not yet pledged to engines in the 80-85klbf range. Until then, Airbus will not be able to offer a longer-ranged A359 (tentativly dubbed A350-1000) or a stretched, longer-ranged 787-10X.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Thread starter):
The 787 family has a lower list-price than A350.

The 787-3/8 has a lower list price than the A350. The 787-9 is closer to A350 pricing, and a 787-10X would likely be A350-priced.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Thread starter):
Anyone care to elaborate?

I think EK are just waiting to get the most balanced evaluation possible. They aren't blue-balling Airbus/Boeing for dirt cheap aircraft yet, they simply want to see the variants they want: A350-1000 v. 787-10X

EK is in no hurry, so it's up to Airbus/Boeing and their suppliers to meet EK's requirements...
 
TinkerBelle
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:28 am

Interest concept you throw out there that makes a whole lot of sense. My take is if EK didn't make an announcement on the A350 in Paris, it's probably not gonna happen. EK has said themselves they are showing interest in the 787-10 if Boeing decided to build it and can't find a better launch customer than EK. As much as the 787-10 spells doom for Boeing's own 772ER, I think they should go ahead with the project coz if they don't 350 will eat up into that market. Maybe EK will replace their 772ER's with the 787-10 which makes sense. If all this happens, and I hope it does, Airbus will be in deep dodo with the A330 on steroids....I mean A350. Once again, Leahy and his boys will have stuffed their feet in their mouths big time.
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TinkerBelle
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:30 am

Damn, where's Ikramerica when you need him most? ;D
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
N60659
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:35 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 3):
I think EK are just waiting to get the most balanced evaluation possible. They aren't blue-balling Airbus/Boeing for dirt cheap aircraft yet, they simply want to see the variants they want: A350-1000 v. 787-10X

A news story highlighted on another thread here today, alluded to the possibility of EK leasing 787/A350 from ILFC. This could be a way to bridge the capacity gap for this sector while a suitable A350/787 derivative becomes available.

http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/BusinessNF.asp?ArticleID=194099

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Lumberton
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:46 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 2):
If anything is happening it will be behind closed doors.

I believe what is happening at this moment "behind closed doors" is EK and QR saying to Mr. Leahy, "hey, John, we want to help you get to your stated goal of 200 firm orders, and to get to 50-50 against Boeing. We really, really, do. But we need another 5 or 10 percent of the price we had negotiated last week (before you threw the numbers out in public!). So how about it, huh? We're here to help you, John."

NEVER put out a number with a date. Didn't Boeing learn this lesson in 2004? However, if anyone can pull this off, it's probably Leahy!
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
atmx2000
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:59 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 3):
I think EK are just waiting to get the most balanced evaluation possible. They aren't blue-balling Airbus/Boeing for dirt cheap aircraft yet, they simply want to see the variants they want: A350-1000 v. 787-10X

This is my view as well. However, there is another possibility and that is EK might be looking again at the higher MTOW 787-9. The increase in cabin width should make 9 abreast seating more attractive, improving economy capacity by around 25 seats, while the increased MTOW should allow the aircraft to carry that payload well over 8000nm.
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DAYflyer
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 11:44 am

EK has stated at the time they placed the 777 order that they had simply not reached a decision yet on the airframe they intended to buy. This means they are still evaluating it, and perhaps B has asked them to hold off for a few more weeks until the 787-9HGW or 787-10 can be presented to them. Either way we will not know before the end of the year, as EK has stated.

That being said, I am willing to speculate it will be the steal of the year if they go with the 787, since this order is the A-350's to lose. EK has demonstrated a preference for the Airbus product, excepting the 777 of course, which they own in droves now.

"Sheikh Ahmed said his fast-growing airline had yet to decide on whether it will buy the Airbus A350 or the Boeing (BA) 787.

"We will decide when we are ready," said Sheikh Ahmed."


[Edited 2005-11-23 03:48:18]
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Byrdluvs747
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:36 pm

How committed to the A350 is Airbus, especially if they lose EK to Boeing? Would they still go forward with the aircraft?
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 1:29 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 10):
How committed to the A350 is Airbus, especially if they lose EK to Boeing? Would they still go forward with the aircraft?

With as many non-EK commitments as they have, I can't imagine them pulling the plug. While not an exact match to the 787, it certainly sounds like a decent aircraft - enough so to garner a substantial number of orders in the face of the 777/787 competitors.

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United Airline
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:32 pm

From what I read, Boeing seems to be reluctant in building the B 787-10 and it is definitely not on the priority list since the B 777-200/200ER is still VERY NEW and it is the best selling model.

It will probably take a while before we see the B 787-10. Even if we do, I suppose both aircraft can co-exist.
 
sq212
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:57 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 12):
the B 777-200/200ER is still VERY NEW and it is the best selling model.

The sale of those models has slow down significantly. Even more so with the introduction of A359. As Aboulafia pointed out "The only thing worse than cannibalizing your own market is having the other guy do it. Boeing needs to bite the bullet. Take the 777 damage and get on with the 787-10."

Cheers
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:16 pm

One thing is for certain, Boeing doesn't want to launch the 787-10 until the eninges are ready so that it will have the legs of the other 787s. If they launched it today, they would need to launch a 787-10ER in a few years time.

My guess is you won't see a 787-10 until Boeing can be assured of its performance, otherwise they would have an A350-9 on their hands that can fly long distances without payload, or much shorter distances with payload.

Another guess is the A350-9 wasn't ordered by Emirates because of the range/payload curve. They seem to want long distance airplanes.

Cheers
 
atmx2000
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:46 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 12):
it is definitely not on the priority list since the B 777-200/200ER is still VERY NEW and it is the best selling model.


The 772A definitely is not a best seller and has faired poorly against the A333. Moreover it will be 15 years since EIS in 2010. The 772ER, while it was a best seller, is no longer the sales leader for the 777 family. The 773ER is the best selling 777 at the current point in time. 772ER annual orders are slight less than annual deliveries so it is unlikely that the 772ER will contribute to the 777 backlog. In 2010, it will have been on the market for 13 years. By 2012 it will be 15 years, which is a long time.
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United Airline
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:55 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 15):
The 772A definitely is not a best seller and has faired poorly against the A333. Moreover it will be 15 years since EIS in 2010. The 772ER, while it was a best seller, is no longer the sales leader for the 777 family. The 773ER is the best selling 777 at the current point in time. 772ER annual orders are slight less than annual deliveries so it is unlikely that the 772ER will contribute to the 777 backlog. In 2010, it will have been on the market for 13 years. By 2012 it will be 15 years, which is a long time.

Well the B 777-200ER is still selling well. NZ has placed a large order last year. I suppose airlines are satified with their B 777-200ER fleet for now. When they need more they might order more.

The B787-10 is smaller than the B 777-200ER from what I heard so it might not be an ideal replacement. Maybe the B 777-200LR but again not everyone needs such a long range aircraft.

Again I doubt the B 777-200ER will be replaced anytime soon and it will continue to act as an important B 777 model.

Just my 2 cents...... my opinion only.
 
flyAUA
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:13 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Thread starter):

Well as you have implied yourself, this thread is pure speculation and is not based on any facts, so there is no need to make it sound like a B787-100X order is imminent due to happenings at Duabi  sarcastic 

First of all, there is nothing apart from a proposal in place for the B787-100X so Emirates have nothing solid to work from (You will need new engines, a new stretched airframe, and then launch the whole programme). Before that takes place....  relieved 

Second, As Astuteman has already mentioned, Boeing already have enough work with the three variants they are offering at the moment in the B787 family. If they were to offer a 4th variant to match the size of the A359, then you can bet your ass on it that it will be as expensive if not more than the Airbus variant. This is due to many reasons, but also due to the fact that the Boeing variant comprises of more composites by percentage than the Airbus variant. They are already finding it diffucult enough (as with any new programme - just like the A388) to make an aircraft that actually does what the initial design states.

Third, I guess you are assuming that Airbus are going to sell the aircraft without a significant discount which I doubt will be the case. Could be pure speculation but Emirates is one of Airbus' largest customers and has recieved significant discounts in the past for its orders. When you are one of these customers, you can tell Airbus how high to jump! By bet is that Emirates are just playing the usual game, normal business.

To conclude, both the A350-900 and B787-100X are suitable for the needs of Emirates. I believe they are just waiting until they have something "concrete" from Boeings side. They will then compare prices, and strike a deal with whoever offers them the better price... as most airlines would do. Of course there are politics that also come into play, but keep in mind that both the A350 and B787 would blend in nicely with the existing Emirates fleet (in terms of commonality) since they are large operators for the A330 and B777.

So this whole thread is purely speculation on behalf of people who think they know more than what is actually going on. Nobody here knows what's really going on behind the scenes, so why not just wait and see?
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HS748
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:18 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Thread starter):
1) Tim Clark got pissed off at Leahy back in Paris when Mr. Big Mouth was telling everyone and their mother that Airbus will announce the EK order at Le Bourget,

2) Boeing finally addressed the EK request for a 787-derivative that's bigger than -9 and presented it in its "proposed" form,

3) If EKs A350 order was solid, it would have been already announced at Dubai - especially since Tim Clark said they would make decision in October,

4) No way their newly ordered 777-300ERs and -200LRs will be used as a replacement for 777-200ERs. Everyone here knows EK wants a 300 seater with a range of 777-200ER but with smaller fuel burn.

Points 2, 3 and 4 seem fair comment. Point 1 demonstrates a lack of understanding of business issues. Do you seriously think a businessman is going to make multi-billion dollar decisions based on whether or not someone's comments pissed them off? I think not.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Wed Nov 23, 2005 10:12 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 16):
Well the B 777-200ER is still selling well. NZ has placed a large order last year. I suppose airlines are satified with their B 777-200ER fleet for now. When they need more they might order more.

NZ ordered 4, not exactly a large number. Total orders for 772ERs were 12 last year. Deliveries were 22. The backlog was decreasing even last year. Total 777 orders were 42, with 28 being 773ERs. There were 2 773s as well.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 16):
The B787-10 is smaller than the B 777-200ER from what I heard so it might not be an ideal replacement. Maybe the B 777-200LR but again not everyone needs such a long range aircraft.

The 787-10 would have similar or slightly greater passenger capacity. It would have greater cargo capacity due to the aircraft being longer than the 772. It would have a lower MTOW and lower max structural payload but would have be able to carry comparable payloads to the 772ER on long range routes due to the aircraft's efficiency. It wouldn't be able to carry as much on short routes.
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ODwyerPW
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:39 am

Story about EK and the B787/A350 this morning

I have to admit, I was surprised by the statement that the "A350-900 isn't where it needs to be yet" (forgive me if the quote isn't exact). I thought it was a plane tailored for EK's requirements. Is it that it's not defined enough, or not big enough (EK hoping Airbus will grow the A359? or release a A3510?).

Regardless, it does appear EK is really wanting Boeing to offer a 787-10 for them to consider. If the 359 isn't there yet, one would have to wonder how far along a 7810 would be in terms of being Defined. Could it be launched soon, and would EK be convinced it's definition is complete enough to get an accurate feel for what they want?

I like the 787 (I like A350 too). I love the idea of the 787-10...lower CASM can only benefit me as a consumer. However, the A359 would appear to have a slight advantage in terms of Airline takeup because it is based on a proven air frame (A330). So, again I was surprised that EK felt it "wasn't there yet".

[Edited 2005-11-23 16:48:21]

[Edited 2005-11-23 16:49:38]
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Glareskin
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:49 am

Airbus was in a winning mood when EK ordered a bunch of A380. Now Boeing is in a winning mood when EK ordered a bunch of 777.
For both parties: don't push you luck! You'll never know what EK will decide.
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FCKC
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:54 am

As already mentionned the EK order for A350s or 787s will not be announced at the Show.
Airbus is working on 2 new A350 versions.
One is a 900 with more range , similar to this of the 787-9.
The other one is a larger version of the 900 (1000?) .
Qatar seems to be interested in both of them.

In another way , Cathay Pacific will not chose between the 787 and A350 , before 1 or 2 years.They are still studying both 747-8 and A380.A decision about their choice is NOT imminent.
 
HS748
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:07 am

Quoting ODwyerPW (Reply 20):
I love the idea of the 787-10...lower CASM can only benefit me as a consumer.

How? It's more likely to benefit the airline in terms of more profit. Contrary to what some airline chiefs would have us believe, they're in business to make money not provide a social service.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:14 am

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 17):
As Astuteman has already mentioned, Boeing already have enough work with the three variants they are offering at the moment in the B787 family. If they were to offer a 4th variant to match the size of the A359,



Quoting FCKC (Reply 22):
Airbus is working on 2 new A350 versions.
One is a 900 with more range , similar to this of the 787-9.
The other one is a larger version of the 900 (1000?) .

It looks like Airbus is working on a total of four versions (358, 359, 359HGW, 3510) so it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that Boeing could be working on five versions as well (783, 788, 789, 789HGW, 7810). (Designations are guesses on my part, not official nomenclature).

Airbus is turning up the heat, so Boeing is probably at least strongly considering the impact of NOT offering the 7810 anytime soon.

-Dave
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ODwyerPW
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:17 am

Quoting HS748
"How? It's more likely to benefit the airline in terms of more profit. Contrary to what some airline chiefs would have us believe, they're in business to make money not provide a social service."

exactly..a profitable airline is more likely to provide better service.
you did think I was suggesting I'd get a cheaper seat?
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Ken777
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:50 am

If Boeing is waiting on the engines then EK is well aware of this and is probably happy to wait until the results are in. If you focus attention to the engines instead of the planes themselves it is logical to see what GE or RR can come up with - especially since it will have a long term impact on performance. This is one time when it is wise to wait.
 
norcal
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:58 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 22):
As already mentionned the EK order for A350s or 787s will not be announced at the Show.
Airbus is working on 2 new A350 versions.
One is a 900 with more range , similar to this of the 787-9.
The other one is a larger version of the 900 (1000?) .
Qatar seems to be interested in both of them.

Would this larger version be capable of competing with the 773ER or would the smaller size of the A350 fueselage prevent it from doing so?
 
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Aloha717200
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 2:28 am

I'm not getting my hopes up.

As much as I'd love to see the 787-10 I fear that it will go the way of the 717-300.
 
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ODwyerPW
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 5:20 am

"Quoting FlyAUA
So this whole thread is purely speculation on behalf of people who think they know more than what is actually going on. Nobody here knows what's really going on behind the scenes, so why not just wait and see?"

I think most contributors to this speculative thread readily admit they aren't privy to any inside information. It's just awfully exciting to to speculate on activity as it relates to a broadening of the 787 line, which gives us an idea of the range covered by the Y2 project. It's the first step in Boeing having a new generation of products to cover every segment.

No doubt 772LR,773ER,748 put off Y3 for sometime. Which is ok, because the segments will be cared for by products that are truly competive.

Where Boeing gets stomped is above the 737 and below the 772. It would be neat to see them cover that entire range with Y2.

Likewise, as exciting is Airbus not ceeding anything by staying flexible with the A358/A359 project.

These times are allot more exciting than a few years ago when everyone was just developing derivatives.
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glideslope
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 5:30 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 24):
Airbus is turning up the heat, so Boeing is probably at least strongly considering the impact of NOT offering the 7810 anytime soon.

It's tough to turn up the heat when you have nothing left in your tank.  Smile
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JetMaster
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 5:43 am

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 30):
It's tough to turn up the heat when you have nothing left in your tank.

Without EK's strong interest in the A359 - a plane larger than the B789 and aiming at the B772ER - Boeing wouldn't even evaluate a stretched B787 version intensively at this point of time. So it's totally justified to conclude Airbus turned up the heat here.

A bit less cheerleading and some more objective thoughts would help sometimes...


Regards,
JM
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dalecary
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:32 am

Sounds like to me EK will still go A359, but they probably want a HGW version with 8,000nm range. Boeing has to come up with a 330 seater to win this order, which means the -10 will have to be launched for EK to bite. Clark also said it was unlikely they would order both and they are comfortable with an order of 50+ for the type. So, when can we expect the engine technology to be available for the 359HGW/787-10 to be launched???
 
atmx2000
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 7:45 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 22):
One is a 900 with more range , similar to this of the 787-9.
The other one is a larger version of the 900 (1000?) .
Qatar seems to be interested in both of them.


Source? I was under the impression that the -1000 was a proposal for a long range -900.
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atmx2000
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RE: Speculation: EK Will Launch 787-10

Thu Nov 24, 2005 8:01 am

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 32):
Sounds like to me EK will still go A359, but they probably want a HGW version with 8,000nm range. Boeing has to come up with a 330 seater to win this order, which means the -10 will have to be launched for EK to bite. Clark also said it was unlikely they would order both and they are comfortable with an order of 50+ for the type. So, when can we expect the engine technology to be available for the 359HGW/787-10 to be launched???

Where did they pull this 330 number from? Last time they said they were interested in 290+ seats. Sounds like they want a 787-10 with 9 across seating in economy. I can seeing Boeing being somewhat resistant about launching the 787-10, because it starts to encroach on the 773ERs territory when both aircraft are configure with 9 across seating in economy. Of course the 773ER has more space for premium seating so that maybe a differentiator.
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