LAXDESI
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India England Bilateral And Market Size

Sun Nov 27, 2005 4:22 pm

British Airways estimates the current passenger traffic between India and London to be about 750,000 passengers per year, of which 375,000 is O&D, and the rest goes on to North America and Europe.

The current India-England bilaterals allow for 22,000 seats per week, each side, starting in summer of 2006- that is about 1.15 million seats per annum for each side. That is a total of about 2.3 million seats, far more than the current demand of 750,000 seats. With time, more of the North American market will be served with non stop flights from India, which in turn will reduce the demand on the India-London sector. It does not seem likely that the capacity of 2.3 million will ever be utilized. What is needed is open skies policy during winter and summer months to meet the highly concentrated demand.

Are British Airways number correct on the demand side? I welcome comments/corrections.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: India England Bilateral And Market Size

Sun Nov 27, 2005 5:02 pm

LINK
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atmx2000
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RE: India England Bilateral And Market Size

Sun Nov 27, 2005 7:48 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
British Airways estimates the current passenger traffic between India and London to be about 750,000 passengers per year, of which 375,000 is O&D, and the rest goes on to North America and Europe.

I thought it was larger. See this speech:

http://www.ficci.com/ficci/media-roo...ons/2004/july/july5-us-mrdutta.htm

Secondly, with the rapid growth in the Indian diaspora in the US in the last few years, and the growth of business and tourist traffic, the volume of origin/destination traffic between the two countries has grown at a very rapid rate in the last few years. According to our latest market assessment, the Origin/Destination US - India passenger traffic was approximately 2.3 million in 2003 as compared to approximately 1.3 million between India and the UK, only 0.8 million between India and Germany and France combined and 2 million between India and the three South East Asian countries, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.

Maybe BA is talking about its own traffic.
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Concorde001
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RE: India England Bilateral And Market Size

Sun Nov 27, 2005 8:18 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
The current India-England bilaterals

Sorry to be so picky, but it's a India-UNITED KINGDOM bilateral!
 
LAXDESI
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RE: India England Bilateral And Market Size

Mon Nov 28, 2005 1:50 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 2):
the Origin/Destination US - India passenger traffic was approximately 2.3 million in 2003 as compared to approximately 1.3 million between India and the UK, only 0.8 million between India and Germany and France combined and 2 million between India and the three South East Asian countries, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.
Maybe BA is talking about its own traffic.

Thanks Atmx2000 for the link. I too had my doubts about BA assessment for the total market. Your quoted figures seem more reasonable. In any event, the total potential capacity of 2.3 million seats(correction: starting in winter 2006), if ever offered, is more than sufficient assuming a load factor of 70%.
 
LAXintl
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RE: India England Bilateral And Market Size

Mon Nov 28, 2005 2:01 am

Also dont forget, that hopefully with additional seats and carriers in the market will help drive down prices and subsequently increase overall demand.
Also the continued consumer oriented shift of the Indian economy will undoubtedly increase air travel demand in the future, so dont read too much into todays static O&D numbers, as dont say much in regards to future demand.
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vv701
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RE: India England Bilateral And Market Size

Mon Nov 28, 2005 9:30 am

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
British Airways estimates the current passenger traffic between India and London to be about 750,000 passengers

Are you sure these are BA figures? Seems to me the last thing any airline would do is to reveal its estimate of a market size to all of its competitors! And the number certainly does not corelate with the actual and planned services between the UK and India particularly if you take into account the indirect services operated by the likes of Emirates, Air Astrana and Turkmenistan.
 
jaysit
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RE: India England Bilateral And Market Size

Tue Nov 29, 2005 1:13 am

The figures you post are 2003 figures.

Even if the US-India market has grown by the very conservative figure of only 10% annually (I believe it is actually about 15-20%) since 2003, that would mean a jump from 2.3 million pax annually to about 2.8 million annually. Do the math and you will see that the growth in the number of flights is necessary.
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LAXDESI
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RE: India England Bilateral And Market Size

Tue Nov 29, 2005 4:19 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 7):
that would mean a jump from 2.3 million pax annually to about 2.8 million annually

2.3 million figure is for the India-USA market. India-UK 2003 figures are 1.3 million, and assuming a 15% growth, the current figures should be about 1.75 million. I am not arguing against the current bilateral capacity, on the contrary, I would prefer to see open skies between India-UK.