airfrnt
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Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:30 am

A great article from The Australian

Quote:

BOEING appears set to win the lion's share of the Qantas fleet order for 100 mid-sized medium- and ultra-long-range aircraft.

The order is worth $15 billion and is to be announced next week.

This week, Boeing was handed unexpected help in the high-stakes poker game that pits its ultra-long-range 300-seat 777-200LR and its 230 to 280-seat, medium-to-long-range 787 against Airbus's A340 and A350.

In an unusual attack, Emirates president Tim Clark has stung Europe's Airbus in the Flight International journal, saying his airline must be convinced that the 250 to 290-seat A350 would not repeat the "misses" by Airbus in performance and delivery, if the Europeans were to beat the Boeing 787. Emirates has held off ordering either aircraft as it tries to convince Boeing to build a larger version of the 787, the 787-10 - which is the airline's preferred option.

Boeing also said yesterday that it had reduced the Boeing 777-300ER/200LR fuel burn by 1.4 per cent with aerodynamic improvements and weight savings.

The fuel burn reduction comes on top of the 2 per cent improvement achieved during the flight test program, which finished late last year for the 777-300ER. These improvements mean the 777-200LR will be capable of a Sydney-London non-stop flight with an economical payload, Qantas insiders say.

While the 777-200LR appears to be a clear winner over the A340-500 for the ultra-long-range hub-busting mission for Qantas, the race for the larger order, between the 787 and A350, is closer run, with the 787 a short nose in front.

Given how successfull Boeing has been at Family pricing the 777 and 787 together, I really doubt that QF would split this order. I also find it interesting that the paper thinks that the EK warning shifted things more to Boeing's advantage. QF and EK are hardly fast friends.

A couple of other interesting quotes:

Quote:

That comment came after Mr Chew and Qantas CEO Geoff Dixon sat through a dinner at June's International Air Transport Association conference in Tokyo, where Airbus's Mr Leahy told an amazed audience of airline CEOs the A380 delays were due to special airline specifications.

That glib remark irritated airline CEOs, who pointed out that the features they were specifying were nothing compared with the McDonald's, duty-free shops etc that Airbus was touting in its advertising and marketing presentations for the A380.

And

Quote:

But on guarantees, Boeing's conservatism generally pays off with the manufacturer typically exceeding its contract promises.

That conservatism is starting to pay big dividends on the 787 with Boeing able to promise Qantas special versions to meet its particular requirements for extra range on the one hand, and a lighter version on the other for domestic routes.
 
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Richard28
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:44 am

I'm staying clear of the usual A vs B, but just to add balance, the original Flight International article also quoted Emirates airline president Tim Clark saying “The A350-900 is a brilliant machine if it does what Airbus says it will"

Rich.
 
StuckInCA
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:48 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Thread starter):
I also find it interesting that the paper thinks that the EK warning shifted things more to Boeing's advantage. QF and EK are hardly fast friends.

In my mind it sort of makes the whole article sketchy. Even if EK and QF were "fast friends," I don't see how EK making such a statement would impact QF's purchase decision.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:00 am

3 words: Wait & See... I think however that the majority of the order will go to Airbus.  yes 



...lmao.
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airfrnt
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:03 am

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 1):
I'm staying clear of the usual A vs B, but just to add balance, the original Flight International article also quoted Emirates airline president Tim Clark saying “The A350-900 is a brilliant machine if it does what Airbus says it will"

This statement as well as EK's decision to base their fleet around the 777 rather then the A340 indicates that he has doubts that it will.

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 2):
In my mind it sort of makes the whole article sketchy. Even if EK and QF were "fast friends," I don't see how EK making such a statement would impact QF's purchase decision.

I think the fact that EK (which is a customer that has single handidly given creditability to the A380) issued such a public demarche was a huge slap at Airbus. It's one thing to complain about Airbus failing to meet commitments after they actually fail. To warn publically about it while still evaluating the A350 versus the 787-10 is another matter.

If the 787-10 is built, it will have been expressly for EK.

All that being said I would be shocked if QF didn't go for Boeing at this point, simply because the LHR <-> SYD trip to them is the holy grail. Every plane that Airbus or Boeing have pushed QF has asked for more range. The headwinds make it so that even larger capacity is needed.

Boeing is offering a plane smaller that can make this flight economically. Airbus offered way to few seats on a A340. That in my mind will seal this deal.

A key word in this article is "hub buster." QF has to fly non stops directly to Australia from their markets to effectivly compete with EK and their Dubai hub. Flying over Dubai from LHR without a stop in DXB gives them a small advantage over EK.
 
airfrnt
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:03 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 3):
3 words: Wait & See... I think however that the majority of the order will go to Airbus.

Any reasons why?
 
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:05 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 3):
3 words: Wait & See... I think however that the majority of the order will go to Airbus.

Any reasons why?

i think he might have been joking...............
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TinkerBelle
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:10 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 3):
3 words: Wait & See... I think however that the majority of the order will go to Airbus.

Per the article, I'd say majority of orders goes to Boeing but you're right about one thing, let's wait and see coz it could go either way.
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kaitak
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:21 am

I don't think TC's words will influence QF per se, but he was certainly saying something out loud that other airlines are probably thinking to themselves and in that sense, Airbus's misses and late deliveries will certainly have an effect on the orders tally.

Frankly, I think Airbus has been quite demoralised recently; 2005 has unquestionably been Boeing's year and next Wednesday (which may not see the last Boeing order of the year) will see a huge boost to its numbers. Remember, Boeing has been in this position before - the 764 must have been a big disappointment and there were certainly times when observers suspected that Boeing had lost its way; however, with the departure of Stonecipher, Boeing got a much more aggressive leader and we're seeing the fruits of that now - AI, AC, CX, EK and soon, QF. Airbus just has to pull itself up by its bootstraps and take an objective look at where it has been going wrong. Much of its problems are problems which Boeing (and indeed Airbus itself) have previously suffered and have recovered from. It has a good product line (although the A340 is clearly yesterday's plane) and it needs to plan forward - learn lessons from 2005, but put it behind them.
 
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:13 am

I look forward to this QF decision and I'd say that if Boeing can grab the lion's share of the 787/350 battle then it will come down to EK's eventual decision in this category that makes or breaks the 350. If EK launches the 78-10 at the expense of the 359 it will be a brutal day at Airbus, not only from a numbers perspective but also from a customer quality point of view. From that point forward, the cash flow health for Airbus's mid-size segment will rely almost exclusively on AF, LH and BA. I only see Boeing having a realistic shot at BA in this group because if EK goes Boeing the political pressure on AF and LH to buy Airbus will be staggering. Outside of that the 350 will have side sticks so LH will be an automatic. And for AF the 350 will have the option of GE engines so a much easier decision than the 777 vs. 345/6. As for the US carriers I expect the same pressure and most orders will go to Boeing.

I expect both manufacturers to offer EK the absolute lowest total price in this battle because it will be the pivotal battle of 2006. A win for Boeing would practically guarantee absolute success of the 787 over the 350 and for Airbus it will be crucial to stop this from happening.
 
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 5:23 am

Quoting Wingman (Reply 9):
From that point forward, the cash flow health for Airbus's mid-size segment will rely almost exclusively on AF, LH and BA.

Are these the only airlines left on that planet? And AF and LH won't make an A350/B787 decision anytime soon.

Quoting Wingman (Reply 9):
only see Boeing having a realistic shot at BA in this group because if EK goes Boeing the political pressure on AF and LH to buy Airbus will be staggering.

Oh, the same political pressure which forced AF to order A346s?  Yeah sure

Quoting Wingman (Reply 9):
I expect both manufacturers to offer EK the absolute lowest total price in this battle because it will be the pivotal battle of 2006. A win for Boeing would practically guarantee absolute success of the 787 over the 350 and for Airbus it will be crucial to stop this from happening.

Interesting that EK is now regarded by many people as such an important airline after placing record orders for the B777 and after showing interest in the stretched B787...some time back when they ordered the A380 the same people called them a crazy state-owned airline from an unstabile region...  scratchchin 


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keesje
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:21 am

what an impressive objective article by

Geoffrey Thomas, co-author of Boeing 787 Dreamliner - Flying Redefined.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
redflyer
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:48 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 8):
however, with the departure of Stonecipher, Boeing got a much more aggressive leader and we're seeing the fruits of that now - AI, AC, CX, EK and soon, QF.

Not to split hairs, but it was Condit's departure that allowed Boeing to turn itself around. Stonecipher led the push for a makeover and a more aggressive attitude towards Airbus. He just happened to fall victim to a few indescretions. But his legacy is living on and all the campaigns for the airlines you mention were in fact started under his watch.

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 10):
Interesting that EK is now regarded by many people as such an important airline after placing record orders for the B777 and after showing interest in the stretched B787...some time back when they ordered the A380 the same people called them a crazy state-owned airline from an unstabile region...

I noticed that myself, JM. But at least unlike the others, I still think they are a "crazy state-owned airline from an unstable region".  Big grin
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:51 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Thread starter):
A great article...

Not if you're Airbus...
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airfrnt
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:58 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 13):
Not to split hairs, but it was Condit's departure that allowed Boeing to turn itself around. Stonecipher led the push for a makeover and a more aggressive attitude towards Airbus. He just happened to fall victim to a few indescretions. But his legacy is living on and all the campaigns for the airlines you mention were in fact started under his watch.

More to the point, promoting Mullally is one of the best decisions Boeing has ever made. Leahy may be flashy but Boeing has more creditability with him at the help. Stonecipher was very effective, but Boeing has kept the momentum after Stonecipher left.
 
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:59 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 8):
Frankly, I think Airbus has been quite demoralised recently; 2005 has unquestionably been Boeing's year

I can't see why they're that "demoralised". They are closing in on 1000 orders and committments for the year, even if preponderance are in the narrow body A320 family. Still a fantastic performance.


Quoting Kaitak (Reply 8):
don't think TC's words will influence QF per se, but he was certainly saying something out loud that other airlines are probably thinking to themselves and in that sense, Airbus's misses and late deliveries will certainly have an effect on the orders tally.

IMO,you framed the debate nicely and put the quote in the context the author intended.
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airfrnt
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:01 am

Quoting Wingman (Reply 9):
I expect both manufacturers to offer EK the absolute lowest total price in this battle because it will be the pivotal battle of 2006. A win for Boeing would practically guarantee absolute success of the 787 over the 350 and for Airbus it will be crucial to stop this from happening.

EK is in no way a make or break battle for Boeing.

Boeing has already taken out two of the largest A330 carriers in NW and AC with the 787. The have most of the blue chip carriers already committed to the platform. With AA (Boeing loyalist - large boeing backorder), AC (dumped their 330s and going 787), DL (Boeing loyalist - large boeing backorder), CO (replacing 767 with 787) and NW (dumped the 330 for the 787) in the pocket, the only large battle for the 787 versus A340/350 is going to be over at UA (mixed fleet of both boeing and airbus, large airbus backorder).

If you want to fly the A350 in the largest airplane market in the world, you may be restricted to US and maybe UA.

Airbus's best chance for take aways has been the the Trifecta of CX, SQ and QF. Airbus will have unhappy investors on their hands if they loose all three of thoose orders. CX should have been the easiest for them to pick up, and they just lost that order to Boeing perhaps for a generation (CX has indicated that the 777 will now be the backbone of their fleet). SQ is already the largest Boeing carrier which makes them the hardest to pick up. Given EK's statements and CX's decision to move to the 777 I think it is fair to consider the A340 problems confirmed which also will make it hard for SQ to pick another 340 brand aircraft. QF is a target that Airbus has wanted for a while, but I really don't see a way that Airbus will get this order. They physically don't have a plane that will accomplish what QF wants. (Long range hub buster).

Looking further Airbus wants BA and they want EK. EK should have been a walk in the park for them. The original A350 was clearly aimed at them (given EK's complaints about the 787 being too small) and they are the foundation for the A380. EK's decision to go boeing for their "mid-size" (about the only time you will see that describing the 777) and possibly for small (787) planes would be a huge problem for Airbus.

BA is the crown jewels. BA gives creditability just because of the percentage of international travel and european travel it controls. BA is a long time Boeing playground. Getting into that market gives them marketing advantages.
 
airfrnt
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:01 am

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 10):

Interesting that EK is now regarded by many people as such an important airline after placing record orders for the B777 and after showing interest in the stretched B787...some time back when they ordered the A380 the same people called them a crazy state-owned airline from an unstabile region...

See above. I really think that EK's growth is rather suicidal. The fact that they are using 777 as their "mid capacity" airliner boggles the mind. As market liberalization occurs I think that EK will have to shift more and more of it's resources over to the 787/777/350 market space to compete with the carrier's frequencies.

Maybe EK can flourish where PeopleExpress, PanAM, TWA et all failed. But I wouldn't put money on it.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:03 am

Quoting Wingman (Reply 9):
From that point forward, the cash flow health for Airbus's mid-size segment will rely almost exclusively on AF, LH and BA

What about IB?
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redflyer
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:17 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 17):
QF is a target that Airbus has wanted for a while, but I really don't see a way that Airbus will get this order.

Actually, I could see at the QF order going to Airbus. They've lost CX and if they lose or are informed that they will lose SQ then I could see them making the proverbial "Hail Mary pass" - a last minute offer that makes it just too irresistable for QF to walk away from. Desperate men [read manufacturers] do desperate things.

(NOTE: I'm not saying Airbus is a desperate company; just that they may be willing to take a dump in order to win at least one of three high-profile campaigns.)
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aeropiggot
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:20 am

Gentlemen,
Do not count Airbus out, Airbus is a tenacious competitor, and if they can't beat you on economics/technology, they will beat you on price. I don't particularly like Leahy or Foregard, but I respect them tremendously. If I were Boeing, I would not count my chickens too early. Also, if Airbus know they are going to loose this deal, then why not lower your price to the extent that your competitor loose money on the deal by trying to match your price level.

Stay tune!!
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:22 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Thread starter):
Emirates has held off ordering either aircraft as it tries to convince Boeing to build a larger version of the 787, the 787-10 - which is the airline's preferred option.

I thought EK preferred the A350 option, obviously I'm totally wrong

Will be interesting to see whats ordered and in what quantity on december 9th
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N328KF
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:23 am

Quoting AeroPiggot (Reply 21):
Do not count Airbus out, Airbus is a tenacious competitor, and if they can't beat you on economics/technology, they will beat you on price. I don't particularly like Leahy or Foregard, but I respect them tremendously. If I were Boeing, I would not count my chickens too early. Also, if Airbus know they are going to loose this deal, then why not lower your price to the extent that your competitor loose money on the deal by trying to match your price level.

You can only lower your price so far before you attract the attention of anti-dumping authorities, and Airbus already has a magnifying glass on them, in this respect.
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StuckInCA
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:31 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 23):
You can only lower your price so far before you attract the attention of anti-dumping authorities, and Airbus already has a magnifying glass on them, in this respect.

Seriously? I'm not doubting you... I have no knowledge of this subject, but is this a fact? A-net authorities, or actual ones (holding the current magnifying glass)?

[Edited 2005-12-01 23:34:07]
 
airfrnt
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:38 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 20):
Actually, I could see at the QF order going to Airbus. They've lost CX and if they lose or are informed that they will lose SQ then I could see them making the proverbial "Hail Mary pass" - a last minute offer that makes it just too irresistable for QF to walk away from. Desperate men [read manufacturers] do desperate things.

There is only so much Airbus can do. They can get rid of their profit margins on the planes (but what good does selling it do), they can put more fuel tanks on a A340, but the bottom line is that they can't get a A340 to fly non-stop from LHR to SYD with a economic payload.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 22):
I thought EK preferred the A350 option, obviously I'm totally wrong

EK has asked Boeing for a plane custom made for them. The A350 as spec'd is targeted directly at them. That basically turns the whole thing into a Boeing versus Airbus battle. If Airbus had launched the A350 as it currently stands the same time as Boeing launched the 787 I suspect EK would have ordered 50 of them. Given the A380 schedule miss, Boeing's momentum with the 787 and the 772LR, and the large EK 777 order, I am not so sure now.
 
ozglobal
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:44 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Thread starter):
A great article from The Australian

Why? Because it's pro-Boeing?

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 10):
Quoting Wingman (Reply 9):
only see Boeing having a realistic shot at BA in this group because if EK goes Boeing the political pressure on AF and LH to buy Airbus will be staggering.

Oh, the same political pressure which forced AF to order A346s?

No, the more threatening type that the US government exerts in Japan, I think he means.
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:48 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 25):
EK has asked Boeing for a plane custom made for them. The A350 as spec'd is targeted directly at them. That basically turns the whole thing into a Boeing versus Airbus battle. If Airbus had launched the A350 as it currently stands the same time as Boeing launched the 787 I suspect EK would have ordered 50 of them. Given the A380 schedule miss, Boeing's momentum with the 787 and the 772LR, and the large EK 777 order, I am not so sure now.

Very true. If the 359 had EIS of 2008, the order would be set in stone. The problem is the 359 has an EIS of late 2010/early 2011. EK was able to go to B and say: "can you get us our custom 787 by then?" and Boeing has been figuring out how to do it through trying to speed up production (to make room for those deliveries) and working to increase MTOW (see the 789 changes) and available thrust (see threads on engine maker efforts and "revised" Genex engines by 2009/10!). And Boeing DOES do custom jobs. See 739, 764, 744ER. One would hope the 787-10X would have much longer legs and more sales, but even if only EK orders them, it would likely more than break even and take away from A350 sales at the same time.

If Boeing can make a compelling case, it still doesn't mean a done deal by any respect, but it does mean that what looked like a slam dunk in the 359 is now just 1 of 2 equal options to replace 772ERs on most routes, and it also means that EK can help dictate EXACTLY what the 787-10X can do while the A359 is already committed as defined to other carriers. Airbus missed the proverbial boat both by waiting 1 year to respond to the 787 correctly (330 with new engines wasn't the right answer despite what they were saying in 2004), and then waiting TWO years to EIS the first version of the A350. Now, by offering nothing superior and having a recent history of overpromising, EK is willing to strongly consider the 787-10X because of how happy they are with the 773ER.

Just my POV.
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:48 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 22):
I thought EK preferred the A350 option, obviously I'm totally wrong

So did I and I was amazed they didn't order it at Dubai and was surprised by the size of the 777 order they placed. Since Dubai we've seen Tim Clarks comments so we at least have part of the picture to their thinking and, no, you weren't "totally wrong" sir.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 22):
Will be interesting to see whats ordered and in what quantity on december 9th

It will be though I still expect the order to be split. As has been discussed AO, JQ & FJ could all be candidates for A350's if QF Group split the order. Also let's not forget that it's been reportd the order could be placed in tranches so we may only see part of the story next week.

Regards, PanAm_DC10
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airfrnt
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:01 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 23):
You can only lower your price so far before you attract the attention of anti-dumping authorities, and Airbus already has a magnifying glass on them, in this respect.

They have a american magnifying glass on them. I doubt the political will exists in Europe to haul Airbus in.
 
aeropiggot
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:05 am

Quote:
PanAm_DC10: Also let's not forget that it's been reportd the order could be placed in tranches so we may only see part of the story next week.

No airline put down deposits for 100 wide body airplanes all at once. They will probably announce an order for 25 with follow on options for 50 more. Why tie up all that cash, when you don't have to. They might even use ILFC to defer some of the up front acquistion cost.
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:36 am

Quoting AeroPiggot (Reply 30):
No airline put down deposits for 100 wide body airplanes all at once. They will probably announce an order for 25 with follow on options for 50 more. Why tie up all that cash, when you don't have to. They might even use ILFC to defer some of the up front acquistion cost.

Respectfully, is that the best you can get me on? Give it a break and look at what I said, You just repeated it for me. No, QF will most likely not use ILFC as they prefer to order direct from the OEM. If they did use ILFC this time it would set a precedent fr them and whose to say GECAS isn't crunching numbers with thenm either?

Regards, PanAm_DC10
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N79969
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:44 am

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 26):
No, the more threatening type that the US government exerts in Japan, I think he means.

Living in France can cause people to have such hallucinations
 
N79969
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:49 am

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 26):
Why? Because it's pro-Boeing?

Why not? Because the current conditions favor Boeing's product line and they are reporting the facts?
 
aerokiwi
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:50 am

"Noses ahead"? Are you kidding??!! The 787 order is in the bag. Airbus simply doesn't have a medium range offering in the 230-250 seat category to replace the 767s.

The A340 is a dead and buried aircraft by all accounts, so I suspect the 773ER is in for that role along with the 772LR if the range fits.

That leaves maybe the A350 against the 772ER, which could go either way, but likely the 772.

If Airbus wins this order, I'll gladly quit this forum in shame  Smile If it's split, I'll stay on, but only begrudgingly  Silly
 
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:55 am

I have to agree with most of the posts, I think that Boeing is going to be the big winner here, ending an astonishing year of sales for the men and women in Seattle (oops, Chicago).

The 772LR/773ER/787 combines to make an amazing lineup....these three longhaul aircraft simply work well together and will allow Qantas to redefine its route system.

We will know next week!
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:58 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 35):
The 772LR/773ER/787 combines to make an amazing lineup....these three longhaul aircraft simply work well together and will allow Qantas to redefine its route system.

Poor 748. Nobody gives it a chance, but for those who fly the 773ER/772LR/788 and already fly the 744, the 748 does slot in nicely, if in a niche, considering all the things it shares among it's stable mates.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
wingman
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 9:49 am

Well Udo, I still think EK is a very risky proposition from a long term perspective. I know the airlne can fill a good portion of their widebodies but I still can't fathom how they will profitably opearte everything they have on order. But more importantly, they are fast becoming a marquee brand that other arilines will measure themselves up to, much like SIA. Over the long-term this may not last if their business model collapses. My two problems with EK are predictions of radical and explosive growth in traffic going through Dubai and then just explosions of the radical kind. The region is very volatile and Dubai is clearly catering to a crowd that isn't high on Osama's favorites. We'll see if civilian attacks in Saudi, Egypt and Jordan find their way to the new Las Vegas, city of sin and greed.

In terms of your AF comments, this airline has ordered comparable products from Airbus every time GE/SNECMA have been a choice of engine types. I think they easily bowed out of the 346 consideration due in part to the RR "exclusivity". And while there are many airlines out there, the 787 customer list looks very tight compared to the 350's. Only QR and the leasing companies stand out. If SIA and QF go with the 787, followed by EK, it won't leave many marquee, high growth and fianncially proven carriers left for Airbus. But I personally don't see Airbus letting EK get away.
 
sq212
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 10:54 am

Quoting Wingman (Reply 37):
And while there are many airlines out there, the 787 customer list looks very tight compared to the 350's. Only QR and the leasing companies stand out.

Agreed. IMO, QR is likewise risky but to a lesser degree than EK. It will be interesting to watch if EK and QR aggressive expansion is going to bear fruits in the future.

Cheers
 
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glideslope
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:06 am

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 1):
I'm staying clear of the usual A vs B, but just to add balance, the original Flight International article also quoted Emirates airline president Tim Clark saying ?The A350-900 is a brilliant machine if it does what Airbus says it will"

Rich.

Of course it will be, "If it does what Airbus says it will." This problem has been coming to a head ever since the 346 and it's issues. People spend hours dismissing it as Airbus bashing, A vs B, B vs A, and everything in between.

Mr. Leahy is responsible for 95% of the unrealized hype that is taking chunks out of Airbus' APU as we speak.

Do people really think Tim Clarke is the ONLY one with this view? How many operators are waiting to see the 380's numbers prior to consideration?

People can bash me all they want. This is by far Airbus' #1 problem, and unless they make changes at the top, soon, things won't change. The industry will not benefit from a suspect manufacturer.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
lehpron
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:28 am

In a small way I find it facinating how Boeing can pitch multiple 777 orders but not the pax version of their new 748 in fewer numbers (to relieve slot restrictions and much better efficiency and range). Talk about curving the market, by doing do Boeing is giving the impression that they do not want pax orders for the new 748...giving credence to the idea that A380 is way over Airbus' head.

Again, that is one preception (not the only one for me anyway), I'm sure it changes with different people, I'm sure people change their minds. I just wonder despite Boeing's insitency that they do not expect pax orders for 748, what exactly is immature about pitching the plane with carriers now?

Considering the back log, its not like they'll get their planes any earlier...
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
wingman
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:40 am

Glideslope makes an excellent point but I would add that there's nothing suspect about Airbus per se, it's their very excellence which makes them what they are today. Their problem is in setting expectations. The cited article makes a salient point in describing Leahy's comments about the 380 delays and the reaction from the CEO's impacted by them. As far as I know not a single carrier is doing anything I would consider radical in terms of interior design and when you compare this fact against Leahy's tireless bullshit about shops and gyms and it ends up sounding rather lame. So we have two key problems, high expectations for the 380 and 346 which have not been met in the airlines' eyes and this is leading EK to make public its disatisfaction. I still think they will go with the 350 but one thing is certain, that contract will set a new standard in clawbacks and peformance guarantees, my guess is full 100% refunds on anything less than 99% performance guarantee matching across the spectrum after 1 full year in service. Anything less and those planes are going back to Toulouse. One more prediction, if QF and SIA give their orders to Boeing then Leahy will be sacked.
 
N79969
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:47 am

Quoting Wingman (Reply 41):
One more prediction, if QF and SIA give their orders to Boeing then Leahy will be sacked.

This is an interesting prediction. Why do you think they would get rid of him? Their recent sales trends have more to do with the products and less with good salesmanship.
 
aileron11
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 12:14 pm

I would like to say “if isn’t Boeing I aint going” so now you all know I am Boeing fan  duck   duck 
Jersey Lou
 
brons2
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 2:02 pm

Quoting Wingman (Reply 41):
Anything less and those planes are going back to Toulouse. One more prediction, if QF and SIA give their orders to Boeing then Leahy will be sacked.

That would be quite a development. Don't think it will happen though. Were he to be fired, I don't think he would have to honor a no-compete agreement, would he? I'm sure Boeing would be willing to make room for a sharp salesman.
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
 
drewfly
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 2:09 pm

Quoting Brons2 (Reply 44):
I'm sure Boeing would be willing to make room for a sharp salesman.

Boeing appears to be doing quite well without someone like him. I can't imagine Leahy stepping foot into Boeing headquarters, unescorted that is.  Silly
A-10 Thunderbolt II, ugly as hell, efficient as hell, would you like to meet my boomstick?
 
MEA
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 2:14 pm

The article is written by Geoffrey Thomas who is pro Boeing and will always blow their trumpet. If you have a look at any of his articles you will find they all tend to favour Boeing.

Was Thomas the journalist who also predicted many years ago that QF would choose the B777 over the A330?
 
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N328KF
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 2:45 pm

Quoting MEA (Reply 46):
Was Thomas the journalist who also predicted many years ago that QF would choose the B777 over the A330?

If he was, he could still be right!  Wink
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
sq212
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:03 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 47):
Was Thomas the journalist who also predicted many years ago that QF would choose the B777 over the A330?

I agree that he is a pro Boeing guy. And many of his prediction is right. His latest remark in ATWOnline: "Cathay played a major supporting role for Boeing's recent 777-200LR 23-hr. 42-min. record-breaking flight from Hong Kong to London eastbound and although the 777-200LR was not mentioned at the order announcement, insiders expect the airline will include that model in the options."
 
dhefty
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:05 pm

Quoting MEA" class=quote target=_blank>MEA (Reply 46):
The article is written by Geoffrey Thomas who is pro Boeing and will always blow their trumpet. If you have a look at any of his articles you will find they all tend to favour Boeing.

Hmmm. I'm afraid I will have to disagree with you here MEA. Mr. Thomas seems to be even-handed with regard to Airbus and Boeing if you read his many ATW articles. He has been skeptical of both manufacturers from time to time. And yes, he does seem to favor certain products in certain selected markets. Why not? That doesn't mean he is biased. Far from it. He is probably calling it like he sees it. The fact is that Boeing does have a superior product in the B777-300ER. Quads are on life-support.

The jury is still out with regard to the B787/A350 competition. And to show that I am not biased, let me say this: "May the best Seattle product win!".
 
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scbriml
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RE: Boeing Nose Ahead In Qantas Order Race

Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:44 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 23):
You can only lower your price so far before you attract the attention of anti-dumping authorities, and Airbus already has a magnifying glass on them, in this respect.

When was Airbus accused of "dumping" aircraft, and by whom? How do you explain record profits?
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