NYC777
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The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Sat Dec 10, 2005 12:10 am

In the same vein as the thread for Singapore, I thought that we can centralize a lot of the discussions in this thread including posting the first word on the order on Wednesday.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Sat Dec 10, 2005 12:21 am

Something that people have overlooked is this article - http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au.../0,5744,17506558%255E23349,00.html from The Australian newspaper today.

It's about the Jetstar going international, and right at the bottom it says -

"Mr Joyce said the airline would boost its domestic fleet with Airbus A320s or 321s from 2007 and it could easily reach 30 aircraft in the next five years.

It also had firm orders for 10 international aircraft as well as options for up to 20 others."

This leads me to believe that more A320s and perhaps A321s will be ordered for Jetstar, but the real clincher is the bottom part -

It has firm orders for 10 international aircraft and 10 options?! What? Does that mean that as part of the QF order, 10 + 20 of whatever aircraft type is ordered is for Jetstar, guaranteed?

I found it really surprising.

Trent.
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EI747SYDNEY
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Sat Dec 10, 2005 12:22 am

This is being dragged out so much.

Let's see them orders already.

Rob  wave 
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NYC777
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 12:58 am

Ok, it's Dec. 13th (already Dec. 14th). We're very close to the "largest order of the year."! Let the pre-decision speculation begin (again)!
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
kiwiandrew

RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:04 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 3):
Let the pre-decision speculation begin (again)!

I confidently predict that QF will abandon all longhaul routes having decided after 75 years that enough is enough . Instead they will be the (re-)launch order for REKKOF ordering 100 Rekkof/Fokker 100s (because it seemed like a good idea to order 100 of something called the 100) to give them unrivalled frequency on the SYD-MEL sector with shuttle flights departing at 5 minute intervals in both directions.  Wink
 
pilotdude09
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:17 am

Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 4):
I confidently predict that QF will abandon all longhaul routes having decided after 75 years that enough is enough . Instead they will be the (re-)launch order for REKKOF ordering 100 Rekkof/Fokker 100s (because it seemed like a good idea to order 100 of something called the 100) to give them unrivalled frequency on the SYD-MEL sector with shuttle flights departing at 5 minute intervals in both directions.

HAHAHAHAHA Good one, You wouldnt know with Qantas.....

I wish they would just tell us what they have ordered  

[Edited 2005-12-13 17:18:25]
Qantas, Still calling Australia Home.........
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:20 am

Well, it's 7am Wednesday, Sydney time... which means they'll be meeting in a couple of hours. We'll probably hear something in about 12-14 hours from now.

Trent.
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NYC777
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:22 am

Does anyone know the timing for the official announcement?
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keesje
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:40 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 1):
It has firm orders for 10 international aircraft and 10 options?! What? Does that mean that as part of the QF order, 10 + 20 of whatever aircraft type is ordered is for Jetstar, guaranteed?

& they'll start early 2007. So no 787's or A350's. Perhaps 767-400ER's, they can do 10 hour flights.  expressionless 
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ClassicLover
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:55 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
& they'll start early 2007. So no 787's or A350's. Perhaps 767-400ER's, they can do 10 hour flights.

I reckon the QF 330-200s will go to JQ, and perhaps they'll have A350s ordered for them with 330s to tide them over until first deliveries.

I'm still betting on 787s for QF though.

Trent.
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UALMMFlyer
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 2:35 am

What happens if the decision is too close to call, and Qantas delay the decision further?

I, for one, would go nuts.... hissyfit 

Seriously, I still expect 772LR to be ordered. Everything else is too close to call.....

I also expect the meeting today to be either very short or very long.... either you have an announcement by lunch time/early afternoon or drag out to the late evening or tomorrow morning. Why? I compare this event to the American Superbowl or the Soccer World Cup.... when the stake is so high, the match is usually a blow out or decided in the last minute..... hope my analogy makes any sense.  smile 
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keesje
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 3:55 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 9):
I reckon the QF 330-200s will go to JQ


And Qantas stops flying them. That is a serious capasity reduction in a booming market, I say.

 boggled 
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Ken777
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 4:00 am

If you look at the short term for JQ, what planes have been parked that would take care of JQ until the 787/350s could be delivered? Any chance of getting something parked by UA? Does BA have more 767s (or even 757s) that they would lease out?

For me (and I'm just a pax) I can't see QF investing heavily (buying) for short term solutions when the money needs to be held for the big investments in the future - for both QF and JQ.

If short term solutions are available then the potential order becomes more interesting in terms of the 350 or the 787.
 
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keesje
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 4:10 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 12):
If you look at the short term for JQ, what planes have been parked that would take care of JQ until the 787/350s could be delivered?

Maybe move the old Boeings to the JQ leisure fleet & get some spanking new A330-300´s for QF? More seats then a 787-9 & available.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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jedward
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 4:12 am

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 10):
I, for one, would go nuts....

Along with countless, undoubtedly stressed out, hardworking sales execs on both sides! As much as it puts us on the edge, can you imagine actually working and re-working this at the 11th hour?! Nerve-racking! I hope when this is over both sides can enjoy a well earned Christmas holiday.
As Christ died to make men holy, let men die to make us rich. --S.C.
 
norcal
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 4:12 am

how many A330s are available on the used market?
 
norcal
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 4:16 am

If Qantas doesn't order tomorrow, both Boeing and Airbus should get together and tell Qantas to either take their deals as they stand or to go f*ck themselves

Edit: I do know this would never happen, but it would make an interesting turn of events......just think about it John and Randy standing next to eachother at a press release and then standing up and flipping off the Qantas board of directors and walking out of the room. That would be funny

[Edited 2005-12-13 20:18:34]
 
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scbriml
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 4:41 am

Quoting NorCal (Reply 15):
how many A330s are available on the used market?

Scientifically, I think it would be described as "a number approaching zero."
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NYC777
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 4:47 am

I don't think there are any twin widebodies out there to lease or buy unless a carrier goes belly up. There's been a huge demand for these planes to open up new international routes.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 4:48 am

I'm ready to b****slap QF's mgmt. They were supposed to announce this on my birthday.

They're taking way too long to make a decision.
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norcal
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 5:05 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 17):
Scientifically, I think it would be described as "a number approaching zero."

If that is the case then how many could Airbus deliver them in time for the 2007 launch of Jetstar?

Could QF get used 767s (there has got to be a ton of those in the desert) and then transfer the A330s to Jetstar as an interm solution until the A350? Maybe sub some 772's for the A333s? I just think it is a waste to order a bunch of A330s and then phase them out of service when the A350 comes along.

I think this will be a split order, not sure who will get the "lion's share." Will be a race to the wire since both companies have good products to offer
 
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scbriml
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 5:38 am

Quoting NorCal (Reply 20):
If that is the case then how many could Airbus deliver them in time for the 2007 launch of Jetstar?

I would be surprised if Airbus couldn't deliver new-build A330s in 2007 - either directly from production or via a leasing company.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Gemuser
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 6:01 am

Its just gone 8:00 am here. If there is no announcement within 2 hours, ie before 10:00am (which is very, very, very unlikley) then the earliest it could be is 4:30pm, more likley 5:00pm. So sorry guys its at least 9 hours away and maybe 26 hours away.

Gemuser
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dalecary
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 6:05 am

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 22):
Its just gone 8:00 am here. If there is no announcement within 2 hours, ie before 10:00am (which is very, very, very unlikley) then the earliest it could be is 4:30pm, more likley 5:00pm. So sorry guys its at least 9 hours away and maybe 26 hours away.

Geoff Dixon has been quoted many times in the last week as saying they hope to finalise the fleet plans at today's extraordinary board meeting with possible public announcement on Thursday. So, I won't be holding my breath for an announcement today.
 
NYC777
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 7:35 am

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 23):
Geoff Dixon has been quoted many times in the last week as saying they hope to finalise the fleet plans at today's extraordinary board meeting with possible public announcement on Thursday. So, I won't be holding my breath for an announcement today.

Hopefully it'll leak out before Thursday, QFA001, where are you?  psst   nosy   mischievous   gnasher   footinmouth 
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 8:22 am

How about moi? Not to detract from QFA001

By Vesna Poljak
Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia's biggest airline, will today announce its order for new planes, valued at as much as A$20 billion ($15 billion). Chief Executive Geoff Dixon will hold a briefing at 2 p.m. in Sydney, the company said in a statement e-mailed to Bloomberg


Regards, PanAm_DC10
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corey07850
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 8:35 am

So 1400 Sydney time is 2200 US East Coast time?
 
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Stitch
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 8:44 am

My pure speculation based on what I would do as an armchair CEO with no experience and absolutely no data on QF or JQ.  Silly

If QF chooses the 772LR for ULR, I think they will choose the 773ER for their 743/744 replacements, trading capacity for frequency or just lowering capacity to improve yields a bit should JQ becomes the "cheap long-haul" option. A decent 777 order would probably sway them into choosing the 787 to replace their 763s and A330s. This would be a big win for Boeing, and if JQ also went 777/787, a massive one.

If QF chooses the A345GHW for ULR, then I think they will choose the A358 and A359 for their widebodies and consolidate some frequencies to support more A388 runs (since they're going to lose a lot of capacity with an A359 vs. a 743/744). That would also imply more A330s for them and both A33x/A35x for JQ. This would be a massive win for Airbus.

Or QF decides to go Boeing (772LR/773ER/787) and JQ goes Airbus (A330/A350). That way, both manufacturers win big and QF has a fleet tailored to smaller capacities (befitting a premium carrier) and JQ can load up on passengers (befitting an LCC).
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 9:17 am

Qantas: 777-300ER/777-200LR/A350-800/787-3
JetStar: A330-300/A350-900

 Smile
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bill142
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:19 am

Current Sydney time is 12:15.

1:45 minutes till the breifing where an order might be announced.
 
QF744
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:26 am

I'm not sure JQ will order the A350. They will need planes in 2006/2007 and not 2010 at this stage. Who knows, it might fail.
My tip:
JQ - 10x A333
QF - 772LR, 772/773ER, 787 and I would say the bulk would be 787s, maybe even up to 40 to replace the 763s. That would then mean about 40-50 777s.
This order is HUGE.
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norcal
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:34 am

what about the 772ER for JQ?
 
hz747300
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:46 am

12:46pm in Sydney, do you know where Geoff Dixon is?
Keep on truckin'...
 
Iloveboeing
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:54 am

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 10):
What happens if the decision is too close to call, and Qantas delay the decision further?

Oh please don't do that again! We've all waited long-enough!

I really think they'll go Boeing.......The 777s are superior to the A340s in economics as are the 787s to the A350s. But I'd probably expect Airbus to be doing some extreme discounts here......
 
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Stitch
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:55 am

I guess it depends on what size of plane JQ needs right now.

If they can use a "small" widebody, then an A330 moving into an A350 could work.

If they need a 772ER-sized plane now, then this order is probably all-Boeing.
 
QF744
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:14 am

Remembering all JQ pilots and cabin crew will be airbus trained, I think JQ will take A330s.
QF almost cerainly all-Boeing.
I'll post the press release as soon as I get it on this and a separate thread for a "double whammy"...
Qf744
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DLKAPA
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:33 am

What time is it in Sydney now?
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QFA001
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:35 am

I believe that this Orders scoop is accurate: Click Here

 airplane QFA001
 
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Stitch
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:43 am

And for those of us who are not members of the group... any hints?  Smile
 
UALMMFlyer
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:44 am

I think the A330 will be an excellent choice for JQ considering neither the 787 or A350 will be available based on the timing of JQ's international rollout. A330 is an outstanding aircraft based on the operating history of CX, TG, KA and others on routes within Asia. I am, however, not too sure about A350.... too little information.

It is less than 20 minutes away from 2 pm Sydney time, and I still think Boeing will get 772LR/773ER/787 orders from QF.
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hz747300
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:44 am

From Dow Jones >

DJ MARKET TALK: Boeing's Dreamliner May Be Airbus Nightmare

1323 [Dow Jones] Boeing's (BA) 787 Dreamliner may have won Qantas (QAN.AU) favor,
tipping the balance in the airline board's fleet replacement decision. Boeing
promotes Dreamliner as being 20% more fuel efficient than aircraft of similar
size, with ability to generate up to 45% more cargo revenue. Clincher may be
aircraft's range, which will give Qantas an advantage over competitors Singapore
Airlines (S55.SG) and Emirates (EA.YY), who fly through hubs of Singapore and
Dubai. Point-to-point services the higher growth sector, especially for
higher-yielding business travelers, one analyst says. (BBA)

Contact us in Sydney. 61 2 8235 2950;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Keep on truckin'...
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:45 am

How do you join the orders group? I know somebody else told me that on the orders group, Leahy wasn't attending the conference....
 
Korg747
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:47 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 41):
How do you join the orders group? I know somebody else told me that on the orders group, Leahy wasn't attending the conference....

Yes that's what it says.
Please excuse my English!
 
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:48 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
And for those of us who are not members of the group... any hints?

Join the group  Wink

Regards, PanAm_DC10
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airfrnt
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:49 am

My guess is that this order will go Boeing simply because part of the spec was a hub buster. That only leaves the 772LR.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:49 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 41):
How do you join the orders group?
 
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Stitch
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:50 am

I would, but I have a feeling I will find out here before I am approved.  Smile
 
nirvarma
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:51 am

I've just signed up...waiting approval....  zzz 

NV
 
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
I would, but I have a feeling I will find out here before I am approved.

What about the next order? And the next order after that? Many orders are discussed there, and is always a great read if you are interested in that sort of thing.

James
Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
 
ikramerica
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RE: The Official Qantas Orders Watch Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:55 am

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 39):
think the A330 will be an excellent choice for JQ considering neither the 787 or A350 will be available based on the timing of JQ's international rollout. A330 is an outstanding aircraft based on the operating history of CX, TG, KA and others on routes within Asia. I am, however, not too sure about A350.... too little information.

I agree. I have thought for a while that JQ will get 330s, not 350s, including taking over 330s from QF. 350s have more range than JQ need, and the 330 is available now (especially since QF already owns some). Order for 10+10 330s, with order for 787s freeing up more 330s as they come into fleet in 2009?

We'll see.

I think 773ER has been a done deal for a while. Just a hunch, but one reason is any existing long route the a 773ER flies will free up a 744, as will the routes the 380 flies, and thus the ETOPS issue isn't as big because A380s and 773ERs free up 744 quads for routes that still need them (JNB, South America, Mexico, etc.)
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