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ClassicLover
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Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:58 am

From The Australian article "Lord of the Flyers" by Steve Creedy dated 17 December 2005 -

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au.../0,5744,17591854%255E23349,00.html

The article interviews people involved with the decision and has many exceptionally interesting points. A couple are below -

* But there was to be one last twist in the tale: just before the Qantas board was about to make a decision on December 7, both manufacturers lowered their prices at the last minute and it was back to the models.

* "The revised offers were significant - I would go as far as to say very significant - and we wanted to check all of that," says Gregg. "But even after that, and we don't how they did it, they were still within a bee's knee of each other.

* Qantas in the past had placed incremental orders for 10 or 20 planes and the blunt-talking Gregg believed this meant the airline was getting screwed.

* Gregg told his newly hired head of strategy, former US-based Lend Lease executive Simon Hickey, that the manufacturers saw Qantas as easy pickings. They didn't see the airline's business as a big deal, even though the smaller orders ultimately locked in the airline as a customer for a decade or more. What was needed was an order that would sit up and make them notice.

Absolutely excellent article! You have to read it!

Trent.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
Joni
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Ch

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:09 am

Indeed quite interesting:

Gregg says the decision could have gone either way and probably would have gone to Airbus had it been made earlier.

"Boeing must have moved quite a few big boulders out of the way to suddenly give us access to the 787 far, far earlier than we ever expected we could get it.

"Without that, they would have been very hard pressed to have won the deal."


And later


When all the calculations were done, there was little between the planes in terms of cost or operating abilities.


[Edited 2005-12-16 17:11:44]

[Edited 2005-12-16 17:12:37]

[Edited 2005-12-16 17:13:46]
 
DIA
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:13 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Thread starter):
What was needed was an order that would sit up and make them noticed.

The size of the order took most everyone by surprise...so I would say they achieved what they set out to do.
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
daus
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:16 am

As they say, the battle is generally won before it even begins. Boeing won this deal when they launched the right aircraft first. No amount of redesign of the 350 can make them available in '08. That said, the playing field will level once Boeing sells out it's slots and has to offer comparable delivery slots.
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Ch

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:17 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 1):
"Boeing must have moved quite a few big boulders out of the way to suddenly give us access to the 787 far, far earlier than we ever expected we could get it.

"Without that, they would have been very hard pressed to have won the deal."

When all the calculations were done, there was little between the planes in terms of cost or operating abilities.

Hmm... This quote really reflects that the B787 and the A350 are really very competitive and matched against each other. Maybe this news helps other airlines in their choice. Also, with these planes being this alike, I wonder if Airbus can win some orders due to the fact that the slots at Boeing are becoming full.

Good article! Thanks for the heads-up ClassicLover!

Cheers!  wave 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:19 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 2):
The size of the order took most everyone by surprise...so I would say they achieved what they set out to do.

Well, the comments appear quite honest. Apparently it's a Ryanair strategy to order in bulk to get a better deal and then sell the surplus aircraft and make a profit. Makes a lot of sense to order in bulk... and QF certainly did have a history of ordering in small pieces beforehand.

Quoting Daus (Reply 3):
No amount of redesign of the 350 can make them available in '08.

This is true, but as the article says - it would have been an Airbus order had Boeing not given Qantas slots for 2008.

Trent.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
daus
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:25 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 4):
it would have been an Airbus order had Boeing not given Qantas slots for 2008.

Exactly to my point. The battle was already won. Only Boeing could supply what Airbus really wanted. The differences in the 787 and 350 became minutia.

I sure hope the sales guys share the commisions with the product management guys.  Smile
 
flyinghippo
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:34 am

Very interesting article indeed!! Thanks for posting it.

It looks like A350 compares very well with B787, according to Gregg, one of the factors for choosing 787 was Boeing able to secure early delivery slots for QF (I guess they have to build that second production line, eh?).

Glad to see Boeing being more flexible to customer's needs, such as changing the design for -9.
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:39 am

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 7):
Glad to see Boeing being more flexible to customer's needs, such as changing the design for -9.

Yeah, it's nice to see them getting back to their roots. After all, they shortened the 707-100 for QF to swap payload for range back in the 1950s, so it's good to see them coming to the party a bit more.

Trent.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
phollingsworth
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:44 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 4):
Hmm... This quote really reflects that the B787 and the A350 are really very competitive and matched against each other. Maybe this news helps other airlines in their choice. Also, with these planes being this alike, I wonder if Airbus can win some orders due to the fact that the slots at Boeing are becoming full.

This actually reflects the fact that neither aircraft actually exists. Therefore, it is not possible to really second guess what the manufacturers tell you about performance. When you add uncertainty to the equation (especially the naive use of uncertainty) it becomes very hard to differentiate. As the aircraft actually come online and the external environment shifts about you will see more differentiation of the aircraft. Things like fuel burn and actual maintenance burden will be established. These will not be the same for both aircraft, and depending on the environment at the time of actual operation may make a huge difference in the actual value. Also the engines are where a lot of the improvements come from and they are basically shared between the two families.

One other thing to consider. If the aircraft are identical in every aspect, including performance and price, and you are ordering them today with a deposit of $10 million. The aircraft that gets delivered two years sooner has a much higher NPV than the one delivered two years later.
 
cwapilot
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:46 am

Are you trying to get a point across that the only reason the 787 was chosen was because of availability, and not on the merits of the aircraft? Or maybe that the 350 will somehow match oall of the advantages of the 787? You conveniently leave out:

"Qantas wanted to get Jetstar International up and running as quickly as possible and to give it the cost advantages of the best new technologies, including wider use of carbon fibre composites.

Ultimately, according to Gregg, the weight of both those arguments tipped the decision in favour of Boeing."

So, a combination of availability and more advanced technology...not such an even match. With all things apparently being equal, namely PRICE, the 787 won out based on its technology, with availability being the deal breaker.

Quoting Joni (Reply 1):
Indeed quite interesting:

Gregg says the decision could have gone either way and probably would have gone to Airbus had it been made earlier.

"Boeing must have moved quite a few big boulders out of the way to suddenly give us access to the 787 far, far earlier than we ever expected we could get it.

"Without that, they would have been very hard pressed to have won the deal."


And later


When all the calculations were done, there was little between the planes in terms of cost or operating abilities.
Southside Irish...our two teams are the White Sox and whoever plays the Cubs!
 
atmx2000
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:50 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 4):
Hmm... This quote really reflects that the B787 and the A350 are really very competitive and matched against each other. Maybe this news helps other airlines in their choice. Also, with these planes being this alike, I wonder if Airbus can win some orders due to the fact that the slots at Boeing are becoming full.

I would imagine their modeling includes lots of assumptions that are likely more conservative for the 787 with its greater use of untested technology. It is unlikely the two aircraft have similar costs and capabilities in any given area given how different they are in size and technology. The overall number may come out the same based on the current assumptions of capabilities and costs. But we will have firm data sooner for the 787 and that will have an impact one way or the other on later evaluations for other carriers, just as data from in service A340NGs and 777LRs have had an impact on the 777/A346 decisions.

On the otherhand, Qantas's CFO might be obfuscating their analysis results because they don't want to give away the fruits of their analysis to their competition for free and reveal their own future operating plans completely. They would like their competition to make bad decisions, and by not providing an complete and accurate representation of their analysis they aren't helping their competition.
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nijltje
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:52 am

Good that you where at the meetings Cwapilot...
 
Aither
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:00 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 11):

Or maybe you're just a victim of Boeing propaganda...
Never trust the obvious
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:01 am

Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 9):
This actually reflects the fact that neither aircraft actually exists.

You have a valid point here. I was just wondering. When the first B787 data is dripping in, Airbus can make some last minute adjustments to their A350's... Ah well, it will keep the business in balance and that's the biggest win for all airlines out there!

Cheers!  wave 
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
atmx2000
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:09 am

Quoting Aither (Reply 13):
Or maybe you're just a victim of Boeing propaganda...

Really, what Boeing propaganda do you see in my statement? All I have said is common sense regarding modeling of aircraft not in service and divulging results of internal analyses as well as the facts regarding current A340NG and 777LR competitions.

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 14):
When the first B787 data is dripping in, Airbus can make some last minute adjustments to their A350's...

I'm sure they will be tweaking things throughout the development process, but so will Boeing after rollout. I'm sure how much adjusting you can make that far into development though that would take into account actual 787 data.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:14 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 14):
When the first B787 data is dripping in, Airbus can make some last minute adjustments to their A350's.



Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 15):
I'm sure they will be tweaking things throughout the development process, but so will Boeing after rollout. I'm sure how much adjusting you can make that far into development though that would take into account actual 787 data.

Exactly. Look at how Boeing is still ekeing performance increases out of the 777-300ER/-200LR.
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RichardPrice
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:18 am

If Airbus are smart, they can do to Boeing with the A350 what Boeing did to the A340 with the B777. Wait until the market is halfway down the upgrade route, introduce a superior product based on 6+ years advancement in technology.

Just my 2 cents tho.
 
cwapilot
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:53 am

Quoting Nijltje (Reply 12):
Good that you where at the meetings Cwapilot...

No, I wasn't, smart ass...I just read the same article everyone else has. Nothing I have said wasn't in the article.
Southside Irish...our two teams are the White Sox and whoever plays the Cubs!
 
Ken777
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 3:19 am

The article is interesting in that it shows the 350 is closer to the 787 than some people think. Both A & B are going to have to work hard for orders when the planes can be competitive. Until such time as Boeing comes in with actual flight data there will be a reasonable balance between the two planes. If Boeing has been overly conservative in their fuel burn estimates then Airbus is going to have to get back to work.

Boeing's other challenge is to work with component suppliers to ensure that slots are available for sales.
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 4:19 am

The most interesting part of the article is that Boeing have "rewritten" the spec on the 787-9 significantly by the improvement in range. I wonder if this is the 787-9LR that Widebodyphotog included in a chart posted on Oct.4th under the thread "Is Boeing rebranding the 787?"
 
dutchjet
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 4:50 am

Thanks for the link, interesting article and a good summary of the drama that goes on leading to a major aircraft order......most interesting was QF's perception that it had to place a big order to be taken seriously by A and B, one would think that both A and B would pay serious attention to a customer like QF - a leading airline regardless of the size of the order.

I am not surprised that A has come up with a serious competitor to the 787....did anyone really think otherwise? The 787 and A350, atleast on paper, are well matched competitors.......they have to be, the world's airlines would not accept any other scenario. The question is whether these two paper airplanes meet their performance targets, and here, Boeing has the advantage as their products usually exceed performance guarantees, while Airbus has had difficulty in recent years meeting performance expectations with certain models. Its gonna get even more interesting as these two new aircraft develop and mature and enter service.

What else was confirmed by this article? Despite all of the drama and A vs B discussions here at a.net.......price and delivery positions are the two key components in the manufacturers landing an order. Who can get airplanes to an airline faster and cheaper will usually take an order.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 5:02 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 17):
If Airbus are smart, they can do to Boeing with the A350 what Boeing did to the A340 with the B777. Wait until the market is halfway down the upgrade route, introduce a superior product based on 6+ years advancement in technology.

Except a lot of the problems with the A340 stem from being a quad and perhaps structural deficiencies of the long, thin fuselage. In contrast, look at the A333 which Boeing never displaced despite being later to the market with the 772A.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
zvezda
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 5:32 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 20):
The most interesting part of the article is that Boeing have "rewritten" the spec on the 787-9 significantly by the improvement in range. I wonder if this is the 787-9LR that Widebodyphotog included in a chart posted on Oct.4th under the thread "Is Boeing rebranding the 787?"

Not quite. The original B787-9 proposal was for a MTOW of 500,000 lbs. Widebodyphotog speculated about a hypothetical 562,000 lb. B787-9 because that is the limit of the undercarriage. The actual B787-9 will be 540,000 lbs. MTOW. The B787-10X, if produced, will probably be about 562,000 lbs. MTOW.
 
SWISSER
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 5:45 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 17):
If Airbus are smart, they can do to Boeing with the A350 what Boeing did to the A340 with the B777. Wait until the market is halfway down the upgrade route, introduce a superior product based on 6+ years advancement in technology.

Just my 2 cents tho.

You are absolutely right.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 22):
Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 17):
If Airbus are smart, they can do to Boeing with the A350 what Boeing did to the A340 with the B777. Wait until the market is halfway down the upgrade route, introduce a superior product based on 6+ years advancement in technology.

Except a lot of the problems with the A340 stem from being a quad and perhaps structural deficiencies of the long, thin fuselage. In contrast, look at the A333 which Boeing never displaced despite being later to the market with the 772A.


A333 is a completely different market then A343-B772.
In fact it is quite a niche plane originally intended for medium range high capacity charter work, a 757 on steriods like some called it in the first days of the A333's life.

Many airlines are comfortable with the 2-2-2/ 2-4-2 setup of the Airbus wide body's, but you are right on the cargo capacity advantage of the 777.
Boeing designed the 777 as the first Boeing jetliner without the double bubble to get advantages on the cargo compartment. However Airbii did it right from the start with the A300-B4

[Edited 2005-12-16 21:59:13]
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Lumberton
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 5:52 am

I found the references to Qantas' strategy of by-passing the great hubs of Asia particularly interesting. Sounds like "point-to-point" has a convert in QF.

Quote:
Gregg says hubs such as Singapore and Bangkok should be worried about the airline's ability to fly directly to far-flung parts of Asia. ... "They should be afraid," he says. "They should be very afraid."

What does the future hold for their 380 options?  stirthepot 
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Joni
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 5:55 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 14):
You have a valid point here. I was just wondering. When the first B787 data is dripping in, Airbus can make some last minute adjustments to their A350's... Ah well, it will keep the business in balance and that's the biggest win for all airlines out there!

This is true, Airbus has certain room to maneuvre since Boeing will have to freeze their plane sooner than Airbus does, so Airbus can spend a while working to build their plane to out-do a known 787 configuration. This is what Airbus did with the 320 (designed to out-do 737) and Boeing with 777 (designed to out-do 340).
 
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STT757
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 5:57 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 17):
If Airbus are smart, they can do to Boeing with the A350 what Boeing did to the A340 with the B777. Wait until the market is halfway down the upgrade route, introduce a superior product based on 6+ years advancement in technology.

At that point Boeing then unveils the 737 replacement based on the 787, to which Airbus again will scrabble to come up with a competitor. The 787 is not just a single type of aircraft, it's the foundation of a new family of aircraft based on the technology from it's development.
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Ruscoe
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:26 am

So what he is saying is that the price was almost the same between thr 350 &787; so the 787 won on technical reasons. It is the fact that the 787 is at the beginning of its development and the 350 at the end, which allowed Boeing to whip out an extra 1000 miles, and ? increase capacity, and tempt with a ten. A 30 year old just design cannot do that.

What surprised me most were the frank comments of the CFO.

Ruscoe
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:39 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 23):
The actual B787-9 will be 540,000 lbs. MTOW.

Can you point me in the direction of any data for this MTOW version?
Thanks
 
BR076
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:47 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 28):
So what he is saying is that the price was almost the same between thr 350 &787; so the 787 won on technical reasons.

Than I suggest you read again, because that's not what he was saying, the price was indeed almost the same and so were the technical specifications , they wanted the A350 but the 787 was available earlier.
ú
 
atmx2000
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:49 am

Quoting SWISSER (Reply 24):
A333 is a completely different market then A343-B772.
In fact it is quite a niche plane originally intended for medium range high capacity charter work, a 757 on steriods like some called it in the first days of the A333's life.

The 772A is in the same market. It was intended for domestic operations and medium hall. Sold less than 100 and came out in 1995, a couple of years after the A333. The A333 has fared much better, despite being earlier to market. Now it did receive some upgrades using improvements in the A332, and perhaps that has helped boost its sale, but those weren't major changes. Making the 772A a A333 competitor would be difficult without a significant weight reduction program.

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 29):
Can you point me in the direction of any data for this MTOW version?
Thanks

http://boeing.com/commercial/787family/787-9prod.html
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:50 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 28):
So what he is saying is that the price was almost the same between thr 350 &787; so the 787 won on technical reasons. It is the fact that the 787 is at the beginning of its development and the 350 at the end, which allowed Boeing to whip out an extra 1000 miles, and ? increase capacity, and tempt with a ten. A 30 year old just design cannot do that.

Its actually the other way round, Qantas awarded Boeing the contract mainly on two things:

1. The difficulty they had retasking their A330s for different routes after Qantas ordered them with certain options

2. This is the biggy - Boeing offered delivery slots in 2008.

The 787 is out of development and into the initial production and certification phase, the design is fixed (barring production changes due to difficulties in certification) while the A350 hasnt even had a design freeze yet. Technically Airbus can go away and redesign the A350 from the ground up, providing the new design passes muster with the airlines who currently hold options with it.

But Qantas wanted the aircraft ASAP, and the ability for Boeing to offer early delivery slots basically won the order. You cant beat that. The Qantas CEO is even quoted in another thread as saying there was nothing between the aircraft.
 
whitehatter
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:50 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 27):
At that point Boeing then unveils the 737 replacement based on the 787, to which Airbus again will scrabble to come up with a competitor.

sorry to stop your cheerleading but Airbus already have the A320 replacement in the pipeline. Nice try, must do harder...

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 28):
So what he is saying is that the price was almost the same between thr 350 &787; so the 787 won on technical reasons. It is the fact that the 787 is at the beginning of its development and the 350 at the end, which allowed Boeing to whip out an extra 1000 miles, and ? increase capacity, and tempt with a ten. A 30 year old just design cannot do that.

just what are you on about?

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 25):
What does the future hold for their 380 options?

another failed cheerleader.

The A380 order has nothing to do with their midrange fleet renewal. It is going to operate the high capacity and long range routes which are currently 744 territory.

QF have already said they will be looking at increasing the A380 fleet size. You cheerleaders do love to distort facts, like accusing Airbus of misrepresenting orders then doing EXACTLY the same with this QF 787 deal which is NO WHERE near as big as some of the airheads here claim.

Purchase rights are not the same as options. It is merely a quote and delivery estimate. QF gets the right to increase the orders and options at a preset price.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
FCKC
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:08 am

According to some observers , report Les Echos , Qantas has had a 50% discount price !!! Meaning as the price of a 787 is 160 M $ , they will only pay 80 M $ each unit !!! Also meaning Boeing has "only sold" about 60 787s , and "gave" 60 others !!!!!! Tremendous !!!!!!
Also in this deal , Australia got some Millions $ economic compensations.Do not forget Australia is involved in the 787 programm.
The catalog price doesn't mean many thinks , either for Boeing or for Airbus.
In fact in this so hard competition between A and B , airlines are the great winners , and it's...........great.
Another point :Probably it will be the same discount price way for both the next battles , namely SIA and Emirates , as both manufactuers want abolutly win them.........
 
NYC777
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:16 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 32):
Technically Airbus can go away and redesign the A350 from the ground up, providing the new design passes muster with the airlines who currently hold options with it.

True but then you can say bye bye to a 2010 EIS.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:19 am

Quoting BR076 (Reply 30):
the price was indeed almost the same and so were the technical specifications

Anyway who knows anything about the two airplanes can say that the specifications have significant differences in capacity.

Quoting BR076 (Reply 30):
they wanted the A350 but the 787 was available earlier.

Where do you get this idea they wanted the A350 but only took the 787 because it was available earlier? They expected that they couldn't get the 787 early because delivery slots weren't available and thought they could get the A350 before slots were available (plus probably A330s to fill the gap), but Boeing managed to get early 787 delivery slots for them.

Quoting Joni (Reply 26):
This is true, Airbus has certain room to maneuvre since Boeing will have to freeze their plane sooner than Airbus does, so Airbus can spend a while working to build their plane to out-do a known 787 configuration. This is what Airbus did with the 320 (designed to out-do 737) and Boeing with 777 (designed to out-do 340).

The A320 was a new aircraft competing against the second generation of the 737, which was still an aircraft of the 60s and 70s. The A320 was able to take advantage of significant improvements in electronics and avionics to implement FBW in a commercial aircraft and as well as improved aerodynamic design ability to improve performance.

The 777 outdid the A340 because it was designed after a critical technology transition point, the availability of large engines powerful enough and reliable enough to power a large, long range aircraft using only two engines. The resulting platform was better performing and more efficient.

Simply being later to the market is no guarantee of anything. There has to be some significant advancement to take advantage of to gain from being later to market. Can you point to anything in the A350 program that might fit into that category? It doesn't seem to me that there is an obvious technological transition coming up that will let Airbus do to the 787 what Boeing did to the A340 with the 777.
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atmx2000
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:24 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 34):
Also in this deal , Australia got some Millions $ economic compensations.Do not forget Australia is involved in the 787 programm.

Is there anything new, or is this just what Boeing was always planning on making at its Australian subsidiary, Hawker de Haviland?
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dutchjet
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:25 am

What a surpirse, we are having an A vs B war over an interesting article......with people reading things into the article that are not stated. Come on, people, Boeing won this one, good for them and somehow, I dont think the folks in Toulouse are celebrating the loss of this order.

Please read what the article says: the 787 and A350 are very, very close when it comes to performance (just like the 737NG and A320)......thus, both airplanes are very, very capable and a big step forward. Going forward, orders will be won and lost by the manufacturers based primarily on price and delivery slots (plus the occassional preference of a particular airline for one manufacturer over the other for various reasons)......Boeing took this very big and very important order and they should be congradulated. By the way, QF has stated that the firm orders and options are basically a done deal....thus 65 new orders for the 787. As for discounts, well, Airbus has also been know to cut their price dramatically.....remember all of the stories that QF got the A330s almost for free in connection with their A380 order, so its probably best not to go there.

Moving along, it will be interesting to see what SQ and EK will do.......and will delivery positions for the 787 become a big issue?
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:40 am

In my view there are great amounts of dis-information , smoke and mirrors in the press releases and follow up articles.
The model that QF used to analyse the two contenders is only known to them. The difference in price per frame for each type could be quite significant . This is only one input into the model , there are probably a zillion others. All have a bearing on what the model "spits" out.
The statement that it was close means no more than that both A and B would be pricing their aircraft based on what their best estimate would be of the various component costs that QF input. It would seem to me that Boeing got it closer than AirBus.
 
QFA001
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:20 am

Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 9):
This actually reflects the fact that neither aircraft actually exists. Therefore, it is not possible to really second guess what the manufacturers tell you about performance.

I think you hit a nail on the head. To a certain extent, airlines have to believe what the OEMs are telling them, especially the ones without in-house expertise. Great point(s), thanks.

Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 9):
One other thing to consider. If the aircraft are identical in every aspect, including performance and price, and you are ordering them today with a deposit of $10 million. The aircraft that gets delivered two years sooner has a much higher NPV than the one delivered two years later.

Another thing to consider is airplane value. QF did not imply that the two airplanes had the same pricetag, but they were around the same value. The difference can be large (I'm not suggesting that it is or isn't in this case). Price concessions can trade-away performance shortfalls from one model to the next and make two unequal models seem equal.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 19):
The article is interesting in that it shows the 350 is closer to the 787 than some people think.

Even at A.net, most posters form opinions of which airplane is better based on performance. At no point in the article did Gregg say that the performance was similar enough to be near-equal. Infact, to date all QF has claimed in article after article is that the B787-9 met their requirement for a full payload US West Coast airplane. Anyhow, more on this below...

Quoting SWISSER (Reply 24):
Boeing designed the 777 as the first Boeing jetliner without the double bubble to get advantages on the cargo compartment.

FWIW, the B747 was not a double-bubble tube beyond the hump.

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 25):
What does the future hold for their 380 options?

They'll probably be converted to firm orders...

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 28):
So what he is saying is that the price was almost the same between thr 350 &787; so the 787 won on technical reasons.

Hold on, folks.

Gregg did not say that the price of the two airplanes were about equal. Infact, he implied value was an issue. QF is too sophisticated to buy airplanes on price alone:

"And we did that for every one of the routes that we thought these planes would fly for all the years we thought they would fly on them. That came to $80 billion worth of cash flows."

What they do is determine the cash revenue and costs of each airplane and determine a basic value for each type. Then, they 'plug-in' the numbers that come from the OEMs on price to make a final determination about which airplane is better for them. That is, long-term value. Some people call it NPV. It is that value that would have been about equal, not price.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 28):
It is the fact that the 787 is at the beginning of its development and the 350 at the end, which allowed Boeing to whip out an extra 1000 miles, and ? increase capacity, and tempt with a ten. A 30 year old just design cannot do that.

IMO, it could. The A340-300 was 275t and the A350 is somewhat based on the A340, right? The limiting factor for Airbus is engine thrust. If they had an 85klb engine, they could more easily move the -900 into the higher echelons of payload/range.

 airplane QFA001
 
nrcnyc
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:27 am

After reading the article a few times, I don't see where the article said the 787 and 350 have equal or close performance. What I read was that after QF did their research with their models, they realized that the costs were comparable. We have no idea what the up front costs of the planes were or what their operating costs were. We don't know what operating specs they used either. Its possible that the up front cost of one of the planes was higher, but its operating costs were lower, bringing the total cost to be about the same. That's all speculation, and my point is that we donate really know the details. What we only know is that Boeing made a better deal for QF, we have no idea about the performance of the planes.
 
radelow
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:46 am

Couple of things. I think if I was Qantas I would have more hestitation on believing the numbers of the A350 (a plane still being designed) versus the numbers of the 787 (a plane much further in the engineering/design process). Secondly, I don't possibly see how the A350 (which is not a fundamentally ALL NEW plane) couple compare on running economics to the 787. I am not against Airbus on this but truth be told the 787 is a much more advanced aircraft that the A350.
 
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glideslope
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:48 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 8):
Yeah, it's nice to see them getting back to their roots. After all, they shortened the 707-100 for QF to swap payload for range back in the 1950s, so it's good to see them coming to the party a bit more.

Agreed, only this time they left with the valuables.  Smile
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FCKC
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:51 am

Mrcnyc

Totally agree with you.
In fact we have no idea of the performance of both competitors.
It's so childish to say that one is better than the other one.
 
zvezda
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:52 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 25):
What does the future hold for their 380 options?

Most likely QF will evaluate the WhaleJet's CASM in actual service and then judge whether or not they think the B747-8 can beat it and by how much. Then QF will write an RFP. By then, the GEnx and T1000 engines will be in static testing and their SFC will be more clear.
 
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glideslope
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:02 am

Quoting BR076 (Reply 30):
Than I suggest you read again, because that's not what he was saying, the price was indeed almost the same and so were the technical specifications , they wanted the A350 but the 787 was available earlier.

One aspect of Technical Specs....

is the growing appearance that Boeing's performance claims are far more reliable than Airbus. A growing number of operators these days wait to see an actual revenue experience prior to trusting Airbus claims.

The 787 was very likely a product with a greater amount of trust. Gregg while unwilling to say so publicly, could very well hold the same reservations as Emirates Management on 350 performance.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
QFA001
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:03 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 44):
In fact we have no idea of the performance of both competitors.

Bollocks. Aeronautics isn't some zany black art which noone knows about. Some airlines employ people for the expressed purpose of figuring out where OEMs are stretching the truth and where they are not.

A couple percent here and there in the end when the airplane enters service doesn't mean we have no idea now. It's not a perfect picture, but neither is the canvas blank.

 airplane QFA001
 
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Stitch
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:17 am

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 46):
...is the growing appearance that Boeing's performance claims are far more reliable than Airbus. A growing number of operators these days wait to see an actual revenue experience prior to trusting Airbus claims.

I often hear that Airbus "overpromises and underperforms", but honestly, even if it is true, the differences have to be in the very low single-digit percentages, as QFA001 notes. Airbus' engineers are not idiots and computer modeling is not some new-fangled technology in it's infancy.

I can't believe Airbus is missing targets in the tens of percent range. If they were, they would not be doing as well as they are.

Same if Boeing was consistently "underpromising and overdelivering". They never would have been replaced by Airbus or they'd never lose an order because Airbus was a few million cheaper, since either the Airbus product would lose money because it was unable to meet spec or the Boeing product would be expected to exceed spec and make more money.

I think airliners.net people put too much faith in this, just as others put too much faith in Boeing products being uncompetitive because they are "decades old designs" when in fact about the only thing that is that old is the fuselage diameter measurements.
 
lehpron
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RE: Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:36 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Thread starter):
Excellent Article On The Qantas 787 Vs A350 Choice

The word 'excellent' should not have been there.

Quoting ClassicLover (Thread starter):
Absolutely excellent article! You have to read it!

No opinions is the thread topic, how many times do I have to say it? Do it later, be part of the discussion. Why curve the topic like that?  irked 
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