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Flying Belgian
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Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sat Dec 17, 2005 7:45 pm

Hello all,

I was wondering now that the QF A vs. B saga is over, is the DL-US-AA 767s replacement market THE market of the decade ?

I guess soon, they'll have to replace all those older 767s. And we could witness an epic battle (revenge ?) A350 vs. B787.

Any hints about the intentions of those U.S carriers ?  Cool


FB.
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A388
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:08 pm

You definately right about that. The next BIG orders will come from the U.S. Looking at the all-Boeing fleets of most of today's major U.S. based airlines my guess will be the 787 for CO, DL and AA. When looking at the combined 767 AND 757 fleets these airlines have, we can expect very large orders from these airlines. I don't think Airbus will have much chance in winning orders from these airlines as much as I would like to, but it won't happen.

In any way good luck to both A and B in this new and very interesting battle...

A388
 
A340Spotter
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:12 pm

CO already has ordered the 787...as has NW...

Airbus has already won an A350 order from US...

DL and AA may not need to order anything for a few years with the equipment they already have in place.

My two cents
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manni
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:21 pm

Quoting Flying Belgian (Thread starter):
I guess soon, they'll have to replace all those older 767s.


I guess in order to place orders for new aircraft, they need to survive first. If they could afford new jets, they would already have ordered some. DL recently sold 10 737NG's, that weren't even delivered yet. Possibly some of the big international US airlines will never see the A350 or 787 in their livery.  Wink
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pavlin
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:31 pm

It won't be the market of the future considering their current status

Quoting Flying Belgian (Thread starter):

I was wondering now that the QF A vs. B saga is ove

You got that right. I would't give leahy much chances here
 
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:29 pm

If anything, look for AA to order the 783 to replace the AB6 fleet at some point. They'll EVENTUALLY look to the 787 family for 762 and 763 replacements, but the AB6 fleet will be the first overall fleet type changed out.

US has already ordered the A350 thanks to their quid pro quo agreement with Airbus, so that's a done deal to replace the 762 fleet.

DL and UA - assuming the former survives and the latter eventually begins making money again - will be the largest potential orders, since they'll need to replace their 762 and 763 fleets. Look for the 783 and 788 to clean up here.
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DeltaWings
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:41 pm

Once things get better, it will probably be like this

CO already ordered the 787, but they will get a lot more
DL is an obvious customer of the 787, so no A350s there
NW may have a mix fleet of both 787 and A350
AA will get the 787, as it will suit them best and they will probably not order Airbus
US will just have the A350
UA will most likely only get the 787, since they have never operated Airbus widebodies before.
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Lumberton
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replace

Sun Dec 18, 2005 1:12 am

Quoting A388 (Reply 1):
he next BIG orders will come from the U.S.

What about LH, AF, and BA?

Quoting Manni (Reply 3):
I guess in order to place orders for new aircraft, they need to survive first. If they could afford new jets, they would already have ordered some.

AA will be there for sure; DL and NW will most likely stay in bk for awhile like UA did / is doing. But I agree with you that none of these airlines are likely to place new orders for 767 replacements soon. I would love to see it, but they have other funding priorities right now, such as fuel and payroll....
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Flying Belgian
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 1:17 am

Indeed I forgot to mention United's 767 replacement in my topic.

Any idea of the age of the oldest 767 flying for UA, AA or DL ?

Continental's are the youngest ones I assume with their 767-200ER.


FB.
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A342
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 1:36 am

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 6):
UA will most likely only get the 787, since they have never operated Airbus widebodies before.

A ridiculous reason. Operating an Airbus widebody was a first for many airlines. Same for the A32S. UA didn´t fly any Airbusses before, was that a reason for not ordering it ?
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:50 am

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 6):
UA will most likely only get the 787, since they have never operated Airbus widebodies before.

neither did NW before they ordered the A330.....
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StuckInCA
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:00 am

Quoting A388 (Reply 1):
Looking at the all-Boeing fleets of most of today's major U.S. based airlines

Not sure what you mean here. Maybe in terms of widebodies, but plenty of U.S. based airlines are flying large numbers of airbus aircraft.

Quoting A388 (Reply 1):
I don't think Airbus will have much chance in winning orders from these airlines as much as I would like to, but it won't happen

You may just end up pleasantly surprised. As someone else pointed out, US already ordered A350's.  Smile
 
Islandboy
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:25 am

CO - Already Orderered.
NW - Already Orderered.
AA - I believe will go the B787 way..simply because of the A300 crash where them and Airbus threw blame around at each other.
DL - More than likely B787
US - A350.
UA - Could go any which way.

I believe UA might be Airbus best chance to introduce the A350 with another US carrier.
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dutchjet
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:30 am

The 787 family will dominate the 767 replacement market in the US - thats more or less a given, lets take a look:

CO - already ordered the 787 to supplement their 767 fleet and over time replace it.

NW- already ordered the 787 to supplement their A330 fleet and NW has every intention of flying the 787 and A330 side by side for many years to come (Note that NW never operated the 767).

DL - a very loyal Boeing customer - DL will look to the 787 to supplement and in the long term replace its extremely large 763/763ER/764 fleet when finances permit. Although its now ancient history, DL and Airbus had some issues when DL quickly phased out its A310 fleet years ago.

AA - another very loyal Boeing customer that will eventually place an order for the 787 - first as a A300/762 replacement and, over time, to replace its large 763ER fleet. The relationship between AA and Airbus was damaged by the A300 crash at JFK.

US - US/HP already committed to the A350; the A350 order was a controversial provision included in the financing agreement between Airbus and the newly combined US/HP (both large Airbus operators).

UA - UA could go either way when selecting between the 787 and A350, although UA is a big Boeing customer, it suprised many when, years ago, it selected the A319/A320 as a 72S replacement. UA could be an opportunity for Airbus, time will tell. Note that compared to DL and AA, UA's 763ER fleet is rather small.....UA being more focused on the 777/744 for its transpacific routes.

AS - a longshot and not a 767 operator, but AS is growing with a route system that now streches from coast to coast and down the Pacific Coast from Alaska to Mexico - at some point AS may outgrow the 737NG family since longerhaul routes could develop (for example, would AS launch a SEA-LHR service in the future if the bilaterals are modified and it was possible.......who knows?) I could certainly see a small number of 787s in the AS fleet for new longhaul routes and high demand routes, such as SEA-ANC or select service to Mexico.

JetBlue - dont laugh but JetBlue at some point in time may look overseas for even further expansion......not in the short term future but say within the next ten years?! The cutting-edge 787 is just the type of aircraft that JetBlue would purchase......I know that they are a large A320 operator, but they have already suprised a lot of people by ordering the E190 over the A318, and I think that they would do it again if they required longhaul aircraft for expansion.

Hawaiian - Hawaiian has become a rather significant 763 operator in recent years, with a mix of new build and second hand aircraft.....if Hawaiian decided in the medium-term future to move along to the next generation of airliners, they could go either way as I would guess that they would look to replace their entire 763 fleet with either the A350 or 787.
 
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:02 am

According to Airfleets.net, UA has 36 active 767s and a whopping 97 active 757s. Especially the replacement of the latter can be interesting.. the oldest one was delivered in 1989. I wonder what they'll do.. opt for a small wide-body like the 787-10, or go for the A32XNG or 737NNG..
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SPREE34
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:10 am

Quoting A342 (Reply 9):
Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 6):UA will most likely only get the 787, since they have never operated Airbus widebodies before.
A ridiculous reason. Operating an Airbus widebody was a first for many airlines. Same for the A32S. UA didn´t fly any Airbusses before, was that a reason for not ordering it ?

UA having 320 series now may find savings with "commonality" in going with Airbus for widebody replacement.
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UALMMFlyer
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:12 am

I have been hoping for UA to take a look at A330 for a long time, but based on the timing of potential delivery, it appears 787/350 are more logical choices.

Based on the competitors' choices so far, GE being the creditor providing exist financing, technology and advancement of the 787, and Star partners choices (NH, NZ, Polish Air, and potentially SQ), I consider 787 to be the right choice for UA.

I also believe AA and DL will also choose 787 when it's time to replace their A300 and 767.
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jacobin777
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replace

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:27 am

Quoting EHHO (Reply 14):
According to Airfleets.net, UA has 36 active 767s and a whopping 97 active 757s. Especially the replacement of the latter can be interesting.. the oldest one was delivered in 1989. I wonder what they'll do.. opt for a small wide-body like the 787-10, or go for the A32XNG or 737NNG..

EHHO, it seems that the 787 might still be too big as a 757 replacement..u're right about the A32X 737NNG's though....I think UA will with those as 757 replacements.....

As for the 767 replacements, while its true that they could go with Airbus' A350, the various 787's lines will provide UA with the flexibility it needs......

from what I've read, UA got the A319/A320 series because when UA needed to order single isle seat planes, Boeing didn't take them too seriously (which they did to many other operators also).......I think they will take UA very seriously now, especially if UA comes out of BK lean and running smoothly for a few years...
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:35 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 17):
from what I've read, UA got the A319/A320 series because when UA needed to order single isle seat planes, Boeing didn't take them too seriously

How could Boeing not take the largest carrier in the world ( at the time) seriously. Never read that.
 
gigneil
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:43 am

Well, Boeing didn't believe them when they said they'd take their business elsewhere was really what it was.

N
 
N1120A
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:55 am

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 6):
NW may have a mix fleet of both 787 and A350

That wont happen. A mix of 787 and A330, yes, because their A330s are nearly brand new.

Quoting Flying Belgian (Reply 8):
Any idea of the age of the oldest 767 flying for UA, AA or DL ?

Well, DL and UA recently rid themselves of their oldest 762As which were near 23 years old. United's oldest 763ER is from 1991, Delta's oldest 763A is from 1986 and American's oldest is a 1985 vintage 762ER.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
it suprised many when, years ago, it selected the A319/A320 as a 72S replacement.

It wasn't much of a surprise to anyone but Boeing. United was very clear about the aircraft they wanted and Boeing didn't build it until it was too late.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
AS

AS will never operate the 787 or A350
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dutchjet
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:58 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 20):

AS will never operate the 787 or A350

Never say never when it comes to the airline industry......
 
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 5:02 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 21):
Never say never when it comes to the airline industry......

Never is a good word when describing the ultra-careful Alaska Airlines. They once had a 741 on order and never took it and looked at the 757 several times and considered it too large for their network. The 737 will give them all the growth they need and they certainly don't need to suddenly jump up 100 seats in capacity.
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dutchjet
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 5:07 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 22):

Never is a good word when describing the ultra-careful Alaska Airlines. They once had a 741 on order and never took it and looked at the 757 several times and considered it too large for their network. The 737 will give them all the growth they need and they certainly don't need to suddenly jump up 100 seats in capacity.

I agree that Alaska is ultra-conservative, and I am well aware of their 741 order and flirtations with the 757 series.....but times change - years ago, who would have thought that AS would offer transcons services? Years ago, who thought that the 737 would be a transcontinental airliner for that matter.

In my original post I said that AS operating a 787 or A350 would be a longshot - under the right circumstances, even ultra-conservative Alaska could consider longrange flights and need larger aircraft.
 
irelayer
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:06 am

Quoting EHHO (Reply 14):
According to Airfleets.net, UA has 36 active 767s and a whopping 97 active 757s. Especially the replacement of the latter can be interesting.. the oldest one was delivered in 1989. I wonder what they'll do.. opt for a small wide-body like the 787-10, or go for the A32XNG or 737NNG..

Probably a bit of both. The 757 is a unique aircraft that fills a niche that no other aircraft currently does. I bet UA does a mix of slightly lower capacity narrowbodies and higher capacity widebodies to replace their 757 fleet...

-IR
 
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:09 am

Delta could order the 787-3 after bankruptcy to replace the 767-200s and eventually the 767-300As. The 787-8 would also be a good addition due to international expansion, supplementing the 767-300ERs, 767-400ERs, and 777-200ERs. The 767-300ER, 767-400ER, and 777-200ER are still rather young, so don't expect them to be replaced in the short term. While the 787-8 can well supplement the 767-300ER, Delta will prob ably focus on replacing the MD-88/MD-90 before replacing the 767-300ER. I would expect GEnx engines from Delta.

American could also order the 787-3 and 787-8. The 787-3 can replace the A300s and 767-200s. I would expect Trent 1000 engines from AA.
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jacobin777
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:48 am

Quoting Bobnwa (Reply 18):

How could Boeing not take the largest carrier in the world ( at the time) seriously. Never read that.



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 19):
Well, Boeing didn't believe them when they said they'd take their business elsewhere was really what it was.

 thumbsup 
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WunalaYann
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 8:17 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 25):
The 787-8 would also be a good addition due to international expansion, supplementing the 767-300ERs, 767-400ERs, and 777-200ERs.

From what I have read on Boeing's website, the 788 should offer significantly lower capacity than both the 764 and 772. If I remember correctly, the 788 should accomodate 210 to 250 pax depending on the class configuration. The 764 would be in the 250s range and the 772 is into the 300s.

Were you thinking about the 789 or 787-10 instead?
 
atmx2000
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 8:22 am

Quoting WunalaYann (Reply 27):
From what I have read on Boeing's website, the 788 should offer significantly lower capacity than both the 764 and 772. If I remember correctly, the 788 should accomodate 210 to 250 pax depending on the class configuration. The 764 would be in the 250s range and the 772 is into the 300s.

Were you thinking about the 789 or 787-10 instead?

The 788 is long haul plane, and he was talking about international expansion when he said supplement, not replacement (supplant).
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whitehatter
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 8:23 am

The hard part is going to be financing any purchase.

NW did theirs before Chapter 11, which locks in better rates before the S&P rating goes into the toilet. UA and DL will find it hard to borrow for some years, should they even survive in their current form (UA should but DL still has some way to go).

So anyone making predictions is just talking absolute crap. Anyone can walk into a car showroom and order what they want, it's getting the finance approved which is the hard part. Look at how TW struggled to finance their 717 fleet and the high rates on those leases.

Except for the few carriers who are not currently suffering (the smaller outfits mainly) and probably AA, nobody will be buying anything for a few years yet. UA and DL could even be constrained by agreements with debtors from taking on any new debt or leasing for a fixed period.

The USA airline market is going to be hard work for either manufacturer for the next few years. Everyone is struggling.
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dutchjet
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 8:35 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 29):
The hard part is going to be financing any purchase.

NW did theirs before Chapter 11, which locks in better rates before the S&P rating goes into the toilet. UA and DL will find it hard to borrow for some years, should they even survive in their current form (UA should but DL still has some way to go).

So anyone making predictions is just talking absolute crap. Anyone can walk into a car showroom and order what they want, it's getting the finance approved which is the hard part. Look at how TW struggled to finance their 717 fleet and the high rates on those leases.

Except for the few carriers who are not currently suffering (the smaller outfits mainly) and probably AA, nobody will be buying anything for a few years yet. UA and DL could even be constrained by agreements with debtors from taking on any new debt or leasing for a fixed period.

The USA airline market is going to be hard work for either manufacturer for the next few years. Everyone is struggling.

I agree with everything you say - the US carriers coming out of bankruptcy are going to have problems financing aircraft acquisitions, this will be the next big issue that the airlines are going to have to face. Even CO, for example, which is not in bankruptcy, has been very reluctant to purchase widebodies due to financing concerns....CO insisted that Boeing agree to provide back-stop financing for its two ordered 772ERs just in case it could not finance the aircraft on the conventional markets.

That being said, two things to consider:

1. Everyone, including banks, leasing companies, and financing concerns, tend to have very short memories....once UA and DL work their ways through the bankruptcy court, and once conditions further improve and the US carriers are making money again (and they should make lots of money at some point after all of the cost cutting that they have done), credit will be made available to the airlines and everyone will want to do business with them again. Its amazing how quickly the past is forgotten when there is the potential to make money. Ask anyone who has gone personally bankrupt.....a few weeks after their debts are discharged, offers for new credit cards magically appear in the post.

2. If an airline wants to purchase airplanes, and a manufacturer is motivated to sell airplanes, a way to get the airplanes to the airline will be figured out in most cases.......just look at US/HP.......US had not yet emerged from bankruptcy and was just finalizing its merger with HP when Airbus made its financing offer......and a part of that deal is that HP/US will get twenty brand sparkling new A350s.
 
USADreamliner
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 8:48 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 20):
Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
AS

AS will never operate the 787 or A350

Agree with this comment.
They try the 727-200, did it work..? Mmmmh...  biting 


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Stitch
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 8:52 am

UA has consistently been interested in larger and more capabale 777s. They were involved in the 777-200X (now 777-200LR), the 777-300X (now 777-300ER) and wanted a freighter 777 (now the 777F). That alone makes me believe the A359 is not an option for them because they would not allow them to scale beyond their current 772 and 772ER fleets. Unless they go wild and order 50+ 748Is (they had 32 744s in service as of June), the 773ER, 772LR, and 77F are most likely in their future, though if they decide to wait it out, they can go straight to Boeing's Y3.

And if UA does go for the 748I in the two dozen range (while adding 773ERs and 772LRs), then the 787 really becomes the inside track.

The A358 is probably too big to replace the 763ER, so that means the 787-3 for their 763ER two-class birds and 787-8s for their 763ER three-class. 787-9s could also cover the 772ER mission profiles, to say nothing of their 772 ones (both two and three-class).

UA bought the A319 and A320 because the 737NG was not yet developed/available. So while this will keep them from looking at the 737NG, I expect UA will buy the 797/Y1 as their next long-term narrowbody.

So UA may wait and just do a combined total fleet overhaul of new Y1s (797), Y2s (787) and Y3s (7747).

CO will stay with the 787 and larger 777s (if necessary).

AA has never shown much interest in larger or longer-ranged 777s, but I believe they too will stay Boeing based on past actions and desires.

DL wanted 772LRs, but they couldn't afford to order them. In the end, they don't need them to get to China with trans-polar routing, so... I expect they too will choose the 787 and possibly the 772LR/773ER.

NW could very well go for the A350. I am surprised they ordered the 787, to be honest, but perhaps they want the 787 to start some specialized long-haul runs and will buy A350s for something larger. Or they are just going to eschew the large twin market and go straight to a large 748I order to replace their 742s and 744s.

As for AS, AA will buy them before they need 787s or A350s.  Smile

[Edited 2005-12-18 00:55:18]
 
Worldliner
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:29 am

After securing air canadas orders eventually maybe other airlines will folow such as AA and Dl. also with Dl taking up so many new routes teyll need a few new planes after retiring some 772s

[Edited 2005-12-18 01:32:22]
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1337Delta764
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:31 am

Quoting WunalaYann (Reply 27):
Were you thinking about the 789 or 787-10 instead?

I said SUPPLEMENTING the 767-300ERs, 767-400ERs, and 777-200ERs, not replacing them. The 767-400ERs and 777-200ERs are still very young, and do not need to be replaced in the short term.
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WunalaYann
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 10:11 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 34):
I said SUPPLEMENTING the 767-300ERs, 767-400ERs, and 777-200ERs

My bad. Sorry, I did not understand.

So you think the 788 will come in and help on lower-density routes than the 764ERs, is that right?

Cheers,

Y.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 10:45 am

Quoting WunalaYann (Reply 35):
So you think the 788 will come in and help on lower-density routes than the 764ERs, is that right?

Yes, that is what I mean.
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whitehatter
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Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 6:52 am

RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 10:49 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 30):
1. Everyone, including banks, leasing companies, and financing concerns, tend to have very short memories....once UA and DL work their ways through the bankruptcy court, and once conditions further improve and the US carriers are making money again (and they should make lots of money at some point after all of the cost cutting that they have done), credit will be made available to the airlines and everyone will want to do business with them again. Its amazing how quickly the past is forgotten when there is the potential to make money. Ask anyone who has gone personally bankrupt.....a few weeks after their debts are discharged, offers for new credit cards magically appear in the post.

2. If an airline wants to purchase airplanes, and a manufacturer is motivated to sell airplanes, a way to get the airplanes to the airline will be figured out in most cases.......just look at US/HP.......US had not yet emerged from bankruptcy and was just finalizing its merger with HP when Airbus made its financing offer......and a part of that deal is that HP/US will get twenty brand sparkling new A350s.

Much depends on the numbers in the few years following their exit, and whether any debtor conditions are attached to the emergence. New fleets can be financed as you say, but at what cost in the short term.

If there is a chance of another bankruptcy then rates will get loaded for insurance against default. The US/HP situation was more complex as there is the merger and rework of their operations, which made the deal more attractive. UA and DL carry a lot more financial baggage.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
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ER757
Posts: 2507
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 12:18 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
AS - a longshot

To say the least....but as you stated "never say never." If they eventually expand to international routes they'll need more than 738's.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
Hawaiian - Hawaiian has become a rather significant 763 operator in recent years

 checkmark  Most of their 763's are pretty new, but if they plan further expansion, and I think they do, the 787 is a natural.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
UA could go either way when selecting between the 787 and A350

Agreed - many here seem to hand this one to Boeing just because UA has always operated Boeing widebodies. I think if Airbus made a convincing offer on the A350 when the time comes for UA to order, there's no reason to believe UA might not go that way.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replace

Sun Dec 18, 2005 12:50 pm

How big a market is there for the 787-300 in the US?

This seems to belong to Boeing as there is no Airbus product like it.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 1:21 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 38):
Agreed - many here seem to hand this one to Boeing just because UA has always operated Boeing widebodies. I think if Airbus made a convincing offer on the A350 when the time comes for UA to order, there's no reason to believe UA might not go that way.

I tend to think UA would not want the A359 because it covers their current 772(ER) fleet, but those planes will be getting along in the mid 2010s. However, the majors don't mind running frames into the ground (witness the DC-10s and 762s).  Wink

Still, I do agree that UA could "upgauge" to 773ERs and swap their 772s and 772ERs with A358s and A359s. Or they could order A358s and A359s to replace the 772(ER)s and just grab 748Is to replace their 744s and allow a bit more capacity on the top end.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 39):
How big a market is there for the 787-300 in the US?

It's a bit big for those operating 753s, but should nicely cover the domestic 762, 763, and 764 fleets. So you could see hundreds of frames just within the US.
 
cslusarc
Posts: 553
Joined: Wed May 04, 2005 2:29 pm

RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:03 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 39):
How big a market is there for the 787-300 in the US?

Well, in the future I expect US legacies will shift their attention from chasing "higher RASM" to chasing "lower CASM". If this occurs I would expect that there would be upwards of 300 787-3s ordered by US carriers. [note: today there are less that 50 757-300s and less than 50 (non-ER) 767-300 flying with US carriers.]
--cslusarc from YWG
 
MrMcCoy
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:11 pm

I think it all boils down to the fact that Airbus decided to take the original Boeing strategy and make a super-capacity bird in the 380, and had to put the 350 on the backseat. Boeing, already producing a large capacity bird (albeit not AS large, but large) went straight for the A350 competition and therefore has a much more solid plan for their newest baby. It's going to be epic!

Boeing's order list for the 787 is amazing..
It only takes five years to go from rumor to standard operating procedure.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:14 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):
So you could see hundreds of frames just within the US.

And won't most of those airlines who buy the 783 also go with the 788 and/or 789 if they need long haulers?

It's quite amazing how this plane turned everything around for Boeing.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
D L X
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:40 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
US - US/HP already committed to the A350; the A350 order was a controversial provision included in the financing agreement between Airbus and the newly combined US/HP (both large Airbus operators).

What's so controversial about the US/A350 deal? I don't know if that can accurately be described as "controversial."

Also, how can an A350 replace a 762? It seems to me that US may want something that fits in between their 321s and their 332s/333s/350s that they will supposedly have in the next decade. That's a big gap to fill when you take out the 757s and the 767s. What product will Airbus have to fill the gap?

Maybe 787-3's aren't completely out of the question.
 
CTHEWORLD
Posts: 463
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 5:27 am

RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:03 pm

Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 6):
UA will most likely only get the 787, since they have never operated Airbus widebodies before.

....but are one of the largest operators of Airbus narrow bodies, so why would they rule out the A350 if the price were right?
 
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glideslope
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:20 pm

Quoting A342 (Reply 9):
A ridiculous reason. Operating an Airbus widebody was a first for many airlines. Same for the A32S. UA didn´t fly any Airbusses before, was that a reason for not ordering it ?

...since they have never operated Airbus' before.  Big grin
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
dutchjet
Posts: 7714
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:04 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 44):

What's so controversial about the US/A350 deal? I don't know if that can accurately be described as "controversial."

Also, how can an A350 replace a 762? It seems to me that US may want something that fits in between their 321s and their 332s/333s/350s that they will supposedly have in the next decade. That's a big gap to fill when you take out the 757s and the 767s. What product will Airbus have to fill the gap?

Maybe 787-3's aren't completely out of the question.

Please re-read what I said......I said that the US/HP + Airbus financing deal included a controversial PROVISION.....that provision being that US/HP agreed to purchase 20 A350 airliners in connection with the financing package. You must agree that its a bit extraordinary that US, an airline just emerging from its second bankruptcy in three years and that is about to merge with HP - an airline with a different corporate culture, agreed to purchase twenty brand new widebody airliners that they may or may not need. One must assume that the A350s are for a planned longhaul expansion by US/HP, after all US already has a fleet of rather new A333s (that have lots of years of flying left), US also has A332s on order for delivery in the near-term future (originally ordered as 762ER replacements), and, as you said, the A330/350s are rather big to replace US's aging 762ER fleet. Taken together, my opinion is that provision by which US/HP placed an A350 order is a controversial, especially when considering its was part of a financing package. Illegal - no, incorrect - no, controversial, yes.

That being said, US may run into some difficulties by, in the future, flying the A332 as its smallest long range airliner.....it will be difficult for US to effectively serve "smaller" European destinations from its PHL hub without a smaller aircraft, but I do not expect US/HP to order any version of the 787......US/HP is likely to settle on a A32X/752/A33X fleet until the A350s are delivered.
 
D L X
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:24 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 47):
Please re-read what I said......I said that the US/HP + Airbus financing deal included a controversial PROVISION.....that provision being that US/HP agreed to purchase 20 A350 airliners in connection with the financing package.

Right, I'm familiar with the provision. My question is still, why is this so controversial? It appears to me to just be a good business deal. It definitely seems to have been very good for US. It's too early to say definitively, but US's exit from BK may be a model for the rest of the American commercial aviation industry. I know the market loves it: LCC stock has increased 60% since September, and continues to rise. (5% on friday!)

But what plane will fit inbetween the 332 and the 321s? Do you think the 757s will be around that much longer? I suppose it's possible, but if that's the case, then US is committing to having one type separate from the Airbus cockpit anyway.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Market Of The Decade: U.S Carriers 767 Replacement

Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Delta would be an excellent customer for the 787-3. It would make an ideal replacement for the 767-200s and 767-300As. It can fit into many domestic gates that the 762/763 can fit, and burn less fuel than the 787-8.
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