keesje
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Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:30 am

Flight International thinks the requirement for long haul larger aircraft will start early 2006.

FI says the ULH requirements are still on the table. I believe Dixon said he saw them as not economical viable..

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...tas+deal+sees+launch+of+787-9.html



Other intersting info: the Qantas 787 slots appeared to have been reserved for Qatar.

The 787-9 will enter service in 2011. Smart planning by Boeing IMO. The A350 won´t be available earlier & it gives the 772 some extra selling time.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
CX747
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:38 am

I would assume that the 777-200LR is in the lead slightly.
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:43 am

So the rumor Boeing held QR's slots for QF are true, then.

As for the ULR order, I would imagine it depends on how quickly QF wants these birds. An A345E program would probably have an EIS towards the end of the decade, in which time the 772LR will have almost five years of in-flight service under her belt and one can expect Boeing will continue to refine and improve her performance as they have with the 773ER since it entered service.

However, end of decade could also give Boeing a shot at trying to make a 787-9ULR, but I'm kinda (if not pretty) doubtful they could launch it in that timeframe, since they'll still be pushing to get the baseline 787-9 out the door.

If QF is serious about launching the service, Boeing may win it with the 772LR just because it is the only option available this decade.
 
PlaneDane
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:50 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Other intersting info: the Qantas 787 slots appeared to have been reserved for Qatar.

Well, this is good news for Airbus too. We can now see that Qatar is definitely committed to the A350 and not to the B787 anymore. Of course, the airline will still need to firm up this order at some point.

[Edited 2005-12-19 23:19:07]
 
sllevin
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:53 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
I believe Dixon said he saw them as not economical viable..

No, he said there wasn't a case with the aircraft presented.

If someone presents the 'Holy Grail' of a SYD-LHR machine -- without having to resort to a lower density layout such as SQ uses on its A340-500's -- he'd gobble it up.

Without it, QF is simply playing in what will become EK's turf, only without a hub that's more central to leverage.

Steve
 
keesje
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:53 am



"Neither the Boeing 777 or A340 provide an economical solution to our desire to have some of our services overfly midpoint hubs

As well, our commercial people did not feel the savings in elapsed time between the non-stop and one-stop journey was great enough to appeal to a wide enough passenger base"

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/251993_qantas14.html

Boeing has said the 777-200LR, which recently set a world non-stop distance record on a direct flight from Hong Kong to London, can do the Qantas mission. With three additional fuel tanks in its belly, the 777-200LR will be the world's longest-range jetliner when it enters service next year.

But Dixon disagreed, even though Boeing was offering Qantas a 777-200LR with six additional fuel tanks.
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:55 am

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 3):
We can now see that Qatar is definitely committed to the A350 and not to the B787 anymre.

I would agree with you that there is good chance but to say its definitely... hmm I dont know.... We all have seen a lot of crazy stuff happen through the years when it comes to LOI... They really dont mean much some of the time...

You still have slots for 2008 for Primaris... so those slots could potentially be released to some other airliner??
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FriendlySkies
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:56 am

Here's my question...why doesn't Boeing just put the tanks in, fill the airplane with volunteers, and prove that the LR can do it?
 
atmx2000
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:03 am

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 3):
Well, this is good news for Airbus too. We can now see that Qatar is definitely committed to the A350 and not to the B787 anymre. Of course, the airline will still need to firm up this order at some point.

Well, I suppose Boeing would have refunded the deposits holding the slots as soon as QR made their order public, since they were prime slots. Boeing wouldn't want QR to be sitting on slots that they could be offering to other prospective customers.
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DAYflyer
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:04 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Other intersting info: the Qantas 787 slots appeared to have been reserved for Qatar.

Then I would think we know where Qatar stands on the A-350 v 787 battle.

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 7):
Here's my question...why doesn't Boeing just put the tanks in, fill the airplane with volunteers, and prove that the LR can do it?

Put the Qantas execs on it and let them do it themselves along with the volunteers. That way they know and can see and feel what it would be like to be holed up for 23 hours. Max her out on weight and give it a shot with those 6 tanks.
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Trolley Dolley
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:13 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 7):
Here's my question...why doesn't Boeing just put the tanks in, fill the airplane with volunteers, and prove that the LR can do it?

Because it is not an issue of capability, as there is no doubt that the 777LR can fly between SYD & LON, but economics. One has to weigh up the cost of slots at LHR, the limited number of services allowed by the UK/Australia bilateral, the overall market demand, the limited number of viable departure times ex LON that result in a market friendly departure/arrival time when flying to Sydney and the passenger and cargo loads of the flight. I read in the very interesting book, "Flightpaths" that something like only 5% of the world's air routes would be profitable by only carrying passengers. If Boeing and Airbus have to compromise on either revenue earning area- by reducing pax configuration or taking up hold space with fuel tanks- this is of key interest to operators. The capabilities of the A & B ULR offerings are too economically marginal for such an extreme route at the moment.
 
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:22 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Other intersting info: the Qantas 787 slots appeared to have been reserved for Qatar.

Interesting development or, rather, revelation. Boeing appears to have pulled the trigger on QR, forcing them to deal with Airbus. Not a good position to be in from a buyer's perspective since your supplier knows you have no alternatives; certainly not a better (read quicker to market) alternative. Of course, that's assuming QR was still sitting on the fence; hence, the reason no firming up of their 350 order.
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Confuscius
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:32 am

Interesting quote...hmmm...

“Whereas Boeing is viewed as an engineering-led company, Airbus is seen as being sales-led,” one chief executive of a 787 customer airline told Flight International recently. “The 787 is superior...Airbus can compete by being cheaper.”



http://www.flightinternational.com/A...ng+triumphs+in+twinjet+tussle.html
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AJRfromSYR
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:33 am

Maybe QR wants 789's and not the 788?
-AJR-
 
Ken777
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:38 am

QR is in an interesting situation now, having lost the 787 production slots.

I think Airbus would be in error if they think they now have leverage over QR on the 350. They are still going to need to sell the planes and get the contract and the longer QR drags out the negotiations the better chance Boeing has of delivering an interesting proposal - especially if Boeing opens a second 787 production line.
 
nirvarma
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:38 am

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 12):
Interesting quote...hmmm...

Have to agree with you on than one and perhaps it's true considering the issues A has had with the A345/6 and the delays on the A380.

NV
 
StuckInCA
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:48 am

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 12):
Interesting quote...hmmm...

“Whereas Boeing is viewed as an engineering-led company, Airbus is seen as being sales-led,” one chief executive of a 787 customer airline told Flight International recently. “The 787 is superior...Airbus can compete by being cheaper.”

Note that the quote is from a 787 customer airline. It is in his interests to pronounce the 787 superior and better engineered. Without opining on whether or not this is true, I think everyone should agree that he'd be a tool to say anything otherwise. If his airline had selected the A350 he'd be saying positive things about it and about Airbus.
 
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:05 am

Quoting Trolley Dolley (Reply 10):
it is not an issue of capability, as there is no doubt that the 777LR can fly between SYD & LON, but economics.

A B787-8ER would offer much better economics flying SYD-LHR than would the B777-200LR. Seating could be 6 abreast in Business and 8 abreast in Economy. 200 seats total with generous pitch. 2 belly tanks would be needed for extra fuel -- unless the raked winglets could be fitted with tanks.
 
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garpd
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early

Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:20 am

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 16):
Note that the quote is from a 787 customer airline. It is in his interests to pronounce the 787 superior and better engineered. Without opining on whether or not this is true, I think everyone should agree that he'd be a tool to say anything otherwise. If his airline had selected the A350 he'd be saying positive things about it and about Airbus.

It can also be stressed that the CEO was not named, nor was his/her airline. So its still possible the statement is largley true.

From what I've seen and heard in my little circle of friends, it fits.

[Edited 2005-12-20 00:39:11]
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HanginOut
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:36 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 17):
A B787-8ER would offer much better economics flying SYD-LHR than would the B777-200LR. Seating could be 6 abreast in Business and 8 abreast in Economy. 200 seats total with generous pitch. 2 belly tanks would be needed for extra fuel -- unless the raked winglets could be fitted with tanks.

Since the revision to the 789's range and capacity, I've wondered why Boeing didn't the same for the 788 (as an HGW version) as well? As Zvezda has suggested, perhaps Boeing may be contemplating/be convinced to develop a 788LR.

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aeropiggot
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:38 am

Quote:
Quoting Confuscius (Reply 12):
Interesting quote...hmmm...

“Whereas Boeing is viewed as an engineering-led company, Airbus is seen as being sales-led,” one chief executive of a 787 customer airline told Flight International recently. “The 787 is superior...Airbus can compete by being cheaper.”

Don't worry guys, Neeleman have said the say thing about his decision to buy the A320 over the 737NG for Jet Blue.  yawn 
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dalecary
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:39 am

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 3):
Well, this is good news for Airbus too. We can now see that Qatar is definitely committed to the A350 and not to the B787 anymore. Of course, the airline will still need to firm up this order at some point.

Well not committed to the 788 anyway. They could be still looking at the 789 with 2011 EIS and the possible 787-10X with EIS of 2012+.
FWIW, I think QR will stay with the 350.
 
PHXinterrupted
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:43 am

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 16):
Quoting Confuscius (Reply 12):
Interesting quote...hmmm...

“Whereas Boeing is viewed as an engineering-led company, Airbus is seen as being sales-led,” one chief executive of a 787 customer airline told Flight International recently. “The 787 is superior...Airbus can compete by being cheaper.”

Note that the quote is from a 787 customer airline. It is in his interests to pronounce the 787 superior and better engineered. Without opining on whether or not this is true, I think everyone should agree that he'd be a tool to say anything otherwise. If his airline had selected the A350 he'd be saying positive things about it and about Airbus.

The executive in question could have been from an airline that operates both Boeing and Airbus. And regardless of the 787 statement, the general statement about Boeing and Airbus speaks volumes about Boeing's products in my opinion.
Keepin' it real.
 
StuckInCA
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:52 am

Quoting PHXinterrupted (Reply 22):
The executive in question could have been from an airline that operates both Boeing and Airbus. And regardless of the 787 statement, the general statement about Boeing and Airbus speaks volumes about Boeing's products in my opinion.

Indeed it COULD have been...

I'm only saying that if you are a chief executive of a company that buys a product, you are going to say good things about that product versus it's competition. It's him saying good things about his airline's product against some of his competition. We don't know who said it. I don't care. I don't have enough information to agree or disagree with the assertion, I just would be wary of accepting it as truth just because an executive of an airline who purchased the 787 says Boeing is engineering led while Airbus is sales led.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:58 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 17):
A B787-8ER would offer much better economics flying SYD-LHR than would the B777-200LR. Seating could be 6 abreast in Business and 8 abreast in Economy. 200 seats total with generous pitch. 2 belly tanks would be needed for extra fuel -- unless the raked winglets could be fitted with tanks.

As I understand it, Boeing offered the 772LR with 200 seats and Airbus the A345 with 120 for QF's ULR RFP, so a 787-8LR would offer identical passenger payload to the 772LR (and I am guessing close to that in cargo) with more efficiency.

But will 2010ish be too late to meet QF's needs? By then most everyone will have A388s plying LHR-xxx-SYD. Or will all that capacity be the trigger that convinces QF to launch non-stop service?
 
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:24 am

I feel that Qantas may have made a mistake here; under-estimated the demand for a nonstop all-business service. Worth remembering that Singapore Airlines has an RFP out at the moment, and already has experience of making a reasonable success out of ULH routes. If Singapore do happen to place some orders for ULH types and announce that THEY are going to set up some nonstop Oz-UK services, Qantas might finish up with a deal of egg on their faces?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:33 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 25):
I feel that Qantas may have made a mistake here; under-estimated the demand for a nonstop all-business service. Worth remembering that Singapore Airlines has an RFP out at the moment, and already has experience of making a reasonable success out of ULH routes. If Singapore do happen to place some orders for ULH types and announce that THEY are going to set up some nonstop Oz-UK services, Qantas might finish up with a deal of egg on their faces?

Can SQ launch SYD-LHR without the approval of the Australian Government? They put the kebosh on SQ's bid for non-stop SYD-LAX service, for example.

And as for SIN-LAX/EWR, does anyone know how that is doing? (preferably by reference to published SQ financials and not "my cousin Earl tells me..."   ) I have heard SQ does not charge a premium for Raffles vs. connecting via NRT and that Economy fares are very reasonable for what you get.

With 200 folks in a 772LR, I would expect we'd be looking at either all Business Class or something like SQ's A345s with half business and half a very premium Economy with wide seats and plenty of legroom. Can QF command enough of a premium over their own A388s/744s to make it worth the effort? Mr. Dixon's comments could imply they can't...

[Edited 2005-12-20 01:33:51]

[Edited 2005-12-20 01:34:34]
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:58 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
Can SQ launch SYD-LHR without the approval of the Australian Government?

Don't know off-hand, Stitch. But even if they do need permission, Qantas could hardly object on grounds of 'unfair competition' in respect of a route that they themselves consider uneconomic.  Smile

Singapore would have maintenance/crewing problems anyway with such a service - they'd be overflying home base. But that could be overcome by out-sourcing maintenance and by switching crews between ULH and ordinary longhaul (which is what they already do on their NYC services).

I think all of us admire Qantas for driving such a hard bargain over the 787. But that's the sort of thing they're good at. The 'downside' of Qantas is that they've always taken a conservative attitude to innovation; until someone else does the new thing, then they follow suit........

I'd love to see SIA or Virgin even suggest such a service. My guess is that Qantas would change its tune quite quickly.  Smile
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AJRfromSYR
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:02 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 27):
I think all of us admire Qantas for driving such a hard bargain over the 787. But that's the sort of thing they're good at.

I'll disagree, if it wasn't for Boeing selling them 10 planes at a time in the past with minimal discount, they wouldn't have changed the plan and hunted for a large order with large price cuts.
-AJR-
 
Gemuser
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:12 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 27):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
Can SQ launch SYD-LHR without the approval of the Australian Government?

Don't know off-hand, Stitch. But even if they do need permission, Qantas could hardly object on grounds of 'unfair competition' in respect of a route that they themselves consider uneconomic.

No SQ cannot operate Oz-UK non stop without renegotiating BOTH the Oz/SIn & UK/SIN bi-lateral treaties, not something I would think would be really easy to do, because what is SIN going to give the UK & Australia in return??

In fact the whole point of Oz - UK non stop is to cut SQ, EK, MH, TG, CX, etc,etc,etc out of the market.

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whitehatter
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early

Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:17 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
With 200 folks in a 772LR, I would expect we'd be looking at either all Business Class or something like SQ's A345s with half business and half a very premium Economy with wide seats and plenty of legroom. Can QF command enough of a premium over their own A388s/744s to make it worth the effort? Mr. Dixon's comments could imply they can't...

I've posted many times here on just this subject, in depth, and been flamed by cheerleaders who just can't see exactly what Geoff Dixon has confirmed.

The 772LR may be great, but it can't do the route with the kind of economics QF want or the performance envelope to handle it comfortably. Add to that the kangaroo route is no great money maker, and also the issue of ULH psychology on the passengers. Unless someone can come up with an aircraft spec that covers these bases:

1. SYD-LHR-SYD nonstops
2. Premium passenger layout to make it bearable
3. Some cargo at least to offset reduced back cabin space and sales

then it's just not worth wasting hundreds of millions of dollars. Not even a 787/A350 variant would be easy to try and engineer to this. The economics of such an operation are just too difficult to get right, and it is hard to sell a 20+ hour slog to customers unless it can be made comfortable. Many passengers would try it once then book on a stopper next time round, depleting the potential business class pool of users for the service.

That 'half way' stop for fuel is a powerful factor in making longhaul flights bearable.
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:25 am

No need for us to disagree, AJR - you're right, we'll never know how much of the 'bulk purchase' idea came from Boeing. In any event, like most successful negotiations, it seems to have come out as a 'win-win'.

Gemuser, as I said, even Qantas might have difficulty arguing against SIA (or Virgin for that matter) being granted 'permission' to lose money.  Smile

There is another possibility, though. With SIA having an RFP out at the moment, it might suit Dixon to leave them thinking that Qantas has no ULH ambitions. For now.
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AJRfromSYR
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:29 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 31):
No need for us to disagree, AJR - you're right, we'll never know how much of the 'bulk purchase' idea came from Boeing. In any event, like most successful negotiations, it seems to have come out as a 'win-win'.

I'll agree on the win-win, just sounded like you were saying QF has a long history of bargain hunting. QF did a great job negotiating on this deal though.
-AJR-
 
glennstewart
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:42 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 5):
But Dixon disagreed, even though Boeing was offering Qantas a 777-200LR with six additional fuel tanks.

I'm sure that with 6 fuel tanks and a full load of PAX, the 777-200LR could do SYD-LHR. But that's not the point...
Qantas hasn't earned it's close to $1 billion profit after tax this year by luck.

I think Qantas's idea of flying economically is to have room for full PAX as well as additional room for cargo. Cargo loads have increased in recent years. Six fuel tanks in cargo area would only further reduce revenue earning space.

Just because it can do it, doesn't mean that it can do it and earn the airline enough revenue. We don't have a Chapter 11 equivalent in Australia, and it doesn't look like Qantas will need one the way it continues to grow.

In addition, the design of the cabin would have to be changed to make it more comfortable for PAX. I doubt Boeing has taken into account the need to reduce PAX numbers in order to increase comfort for such an ULH flight.
Mind you, Qantas generally puts economics ahead of PAX requirements.
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lightsaber
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:43 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):

The 787-9 will enter service in 2011. Smart planning by Boeing IMO. The A350 won´t be available earlier & it gives the 772 some extra selling time.

 scratchchin  Hmmm... I'm not sure there are that many more 772 orders left. Not when rumors of a 787-8ER are going about.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 27):

I'd love to see SIA or Virgin even suggest such a service. My guess is that Qantas would change its tune quite quickly.

 checkmark  But with LHR slots being worth so much...  scratchchin  I assume the plan to use the LHR runways mixed mode is going forward very slowly?

Lightsaber
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 12:13 pm

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 34):
I assume the plan to use the LHR runways mixed mode is going forward very slowly?

As far as I know it's definitely going to happen, Lightsaber, but not for five years or so. God help the West London people; I lived there myself for a while, the noise level was criminal even then!

Me, I'd look immediately at the possibility of Perth-LHR direct (if I had a spare billion  Smile). The 772LR would already do that easily both ways with a full load. I don't know the passenger figures, but surely Qantas could fill it (and solve any slot problem) by substituting it for their current 747 services from Perth, and also 'feeding' it with passengers from other 'provincial' cities who currently have to stage through Sydney or Melbourne (i.e. two-stop to Heathrow)?

Come to that, I'd pay a reasonable premium to use such a service from here (Melbourne). If I have to go one-stop, I'd much prefer a short trip and a long one rather than two medium-length legs. Especially if I got more space for a 'propah' sleep on the long leg.
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SLUAviator
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 12:40 pm

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 6):
You still have slots for 2008 for Primaris... so those slots could potentially be released to some other airliner??

You took the words right out of my mouth!
What do I know? I just fly 'em.......
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 1:01 pm

Quoting Glennstewart (Reply 33):
I doubt Boeing has taken into account the need to reduce PAX numbers in order to increase comfort for such an ULH flight.

Boeing, like Airbus, just put in the seats that the airlines deliver in the places the airlines tell them to put them in.  Smile

So it was SQ that decided on the boutique config for their A345s, though payload considerations most likely influenced SQ's decision. The same applies to QF with the 772LR and A345, since both aircraft had significant passenger cuts (33% on the 772LR and 66% on the A345). So no doubt either plane would have been powerfully comfy, but as WhiteHatter noted, even if they sold out, they'd be powerfully empty.  Wow!
 
Gemuser
Posts: 4308
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 2:26 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 31):
Gemuser, as I said, even Qantas might have difficulty arguing against SIA (or Virgin for that matter) being granted 'permission' to lose money.

No they would not! Thats called dumping, which most governments and their Tresuary departments frown on strongly!! The anti dumping arguments are very well known but amount to "letting THEM sell THAT product at a loss, takes sales away from OUR profitable product, thereby reducing OUR viablability!

Not hard to argure!

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
windshear
Posts: 2258
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 4:45 pm

RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:23 pm

Ha that is what I posted in an earlier discussion about the B787 order, people were quick to say that the A340/777 orders were scrapped  Smile

Feels good to be right sometimes  Wink

Boaz....
"If you believe breaking is possible, believe in fixing also"-Rebbe Nachman
 
keesje
Posts: 8746
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:36 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 787-9 will enter service in 2011.

I think this is good news for the A330.

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
na
Posts: 9160
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:24 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Flight International thinks the requirement for long haul larger aircraft will start early 2006.

Everyone is talking about 787 vs.A50 here. The topic as I understand is about the bigger jets to be ordered in 2006 or a little later. So it´ll mainly be about 747-8Is, A380s, 773ERs and A346s. I see the chances of each type in that particular order. Size-wise, economy-wise the 747-8I seems to be almost unavoidable for QF, though you´ll never know if Airbus has been stung by the desaster of last week and offers unbeatable prices for a A380/A346 combination (which still leaves agap for 747s).
 
Slarty
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:22 am

From your link, I thought this was also a notable quote:

"...

The 787 had a number of factors in its favour, including price, groundbreaking technology, fuel efficiency and range, he says.

..."
 
astuteman
Posts: 6341
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:41 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
An A345E program would probably have an EIS towards the end of the decade, in which time the 772LR will have almost five years of in-flight service under her belt

If the assumptions about the A345E are correct, it could be quite an aircraft.

The Airbus website lists the range of the A345HGW as 9000 nm (up from 8650 for the non-hgw). The FI article on the A345/6E indicated this would be the basis.
If RR come up with the 6-8% improvements identified (say 6% to be safe), and Airbus apply the same aerodynamic enhancements as made to the A350 (from A330) - say 2%, you could be looking at a range of 9750 Nm.

Finally, adopting the Al-li fuse elements of the A350, without increasing MTOW, should get you some 10 000lb - 15 000lb weight savings. Translate that into additional fuel, and you may well exceed 10 000 Nm range nominal, and have a plane easily capable of economic LHR-SYD-LHR ops.

I would assume they'll also use the A350 wider, higher pressure, more humid cabin.

Boeing will obviously also respond with further enhancements to the 772LR.

The issue for Airbus would have to be - is the A345E worth the R+D money? I suspect it might not be.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:17 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 43):
If the assumptions about the A345E are correct, it could be quite an aircraft.

The Airbus website lists the range of the A345HGW as 9000 nm (up from 8650 for the non-hgw). The FI article on the A345/6E indicated this would be the basis.
If RR come up with the 6-8% improvements identified (say 6% to be safe), and Airbus apply the same aerodynamic enhancements as made to the A350 (from A330) - say 2%, you could be looking at a range of 9750 Nm.

Finally, adopting the Al-li fuse elements of the A350, without increasing MTOW, should get you some 10 000lb - 15 000lb weight savings. Translate that into additional fuel, and you may well exceed 10 000 Nm range nominal, and have a plane easily capable of economic LHR-SYD-LHR ops.

I would assume they'll also use the A350 wider, higher pressure, more humid cabin.

Boeing will obviously also respond with further enhancements to the 772LR.

The issue for Airbus would have to be - is the A345E worth the R+D money? I suspect it might not be.

If the choice is between a 345E and ceeding dominance of the most profitable (per frame) market to Boeing, can they afford not too?
 
kaitak
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RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:56 am

I saw a quote on PPRUNE (D&G Reporting Points - the Aussie section!) about the new QF orders and it suggested a price of less than $70m for each of QF's 787s. How accurate that info is, I don't know - you wouldn't expect QF or Boeing to comment!

If that's the case, it looks like Airbus can't even compete on price!

My view on the hub-buster is that it's still in the offing; apparently, QF issued some new requirements close to the decision date, including some new routes which it would need to operate (can't remember what these are, nor where I saw the article!). It may well be that Boeing is being pushed by QF to improve the fuel economy by a few percentage points, to allow it to add a few more J/F class seats, which - at about £5k/A$12k a go - clearly makes a difference. (Airbus, on the other hand is just being pushed!)

I've always felt that there is a market for n/s PER-LHR, because there are a lot of airlines operating from PER to LHR via various Asian and M/E destinations; being able to operate nonstop would certainly help attract a lot of that traffic and since the aircraft would operate well south of the main Asia-Europe links, avoiding India (which always has some kind of costly limitations), it would save fuel. That could be a potential 777LR route.

So, I think it's a runner. Hopefully it will be. If QF selects 772LR, it will also need to prove to QF that its successor - the 789LR - will be able to operate any route the 772LR can do.
 
astuteman
Posts: 6341
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:38 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 44):
If the choice is between a 345E and ceeding dominance of the most profitable (per frame) market to Boeing, can they afford not too?

Do you mean most profitable per frame for QF orders? How many will QF order?


Or do you mean most profitable per frame in the whole marketplace?
I suspect that the most profit per frame is not in the A345E/772LR market, but rather the A380/747-8 market.
A
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: Airbus And Boeing To Renew Qantas Talks Early 06

Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:51 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 46):
Or do you mean most profitable per frame in the whole marketplace?
I suspect that the most profit per frame is not in the A345E/772LR market, but rather the A380/747-8 market.
A

That is dependent on how much development costs are factored into the price of an aircraft. I suspect the 777LR family profitability is fairly high, but not as the 744. The 748 will be fairly profitable if the development costs aren't too high. The A380 is another matter altogether.

Anil
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!

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