KarlB737
Topic Author
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Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:34 am

Courtesy: Charlotte Business Journal

Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

http://www.bizjournals.com/industrie...s/2005/12/19/charlotte_daily5.html
 
Bridogger6
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:38 am

This is so exciting... Southwest really wants to put up a fight, I think the new US will give em a good one!
 
iowaman
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:33 am

I wonder who is at the top of the list.. other cities on the list are probably MSP, MEM, CVG, and maybe ATL.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:56 am

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 2):
I wonder who is at the top of the list.. other cities on the list are probably MSP, MEM, CVG, and maybe ATL.

Please CVG or DAY........
One Nation Under God
 
jmc1975
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:57 am

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 2):
wonder who is at the top of the list..

Let's not forget RIC, CAE, SWF.

Also, at CLT they have the challenge of facility availability. Southwest can't move in until the completion of significant terminal expansion. Once US Airways fully adopts HP's pricing structure, the CLT O&D fares will drop significantly and there will be less benefit for WN to move in.
.......
 
A330323X
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 11:55 am

Quoting Bridogger6 (Reply 1):
This is so exciting...

Exciting? This story appears every six weeks, I guess the reporters figure they're bound to be right one of these days. CLT has been "WN's next city" for about four city additions now. Wake me when something actually happens.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
kbuf737
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 12:06 pm

What about GSO?


filler

-KBUF
The tower? Rapunzel!!!!!!
 
OPNLguy
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 12:24 pm

Quoting A330323X (Reply 5):
Exciting? This story appears every six weeks, I guess the reporters figure they're bound to be right one of these days. CLT has been "WN's next city" for about four city additions now. Wake me when something actually happens.

Ah, yes... Even a broken clock is correct twice a day...  Wink

The reality is that SWA has lots of cities on the radar, but not all are equally likely "targets" for service as far as timeframe are concerned. Someone has to be #1 on the list, and someone has to be #-Last on the list.

As far as which cities are reallynext, I have no idea, nor (really) does anyone else. The folks that make these decisions have their own criteria, as well as other marching orders, and they keep very closed-mouth about things. (DEN was a complete surprise).
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
FATFlyer
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 12:34 pm

Quoting A330323X (Reply 5):
This story appears every six weeks, I guess the reporters figure they're bound to be right one of these days.

You can read the full story here.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05353/624857.stm
Kelly's quote about new cities is:
"Mr. Kelly: Right now we have half a dozen cities high on the list. There's only one we've said publicly that I will repeat: Charlotte (N.C.). And obviously Charlotte isn't rising to the top of the list yet. It was beat by (the most recent expansion cities) Fort Myers (Fla.) and Denver. I don't know whether we'll have another new city next year. A lot of our decision will depend on how fast Denver develops, but also what else happens. So if there is a dramatic change in Big City A, maybe that's an opportunity for us.

WSJ: What about New York? Some speculation has put Southwest in LaGuardia Airport at some point.

Mr. Kelly: The only thing we've said about LaGuardia is we want to stay on top of the changes in (traffic and airline restrictions) there, and next year is a big year for that. It's a high-cost airport, so there are lots of issues for Southwest. Could we make it work? I don't know. Maybe. But we won't disclose what we have in mind.

It is true it's the largest market in the world, and obviously in the U.S., so it's something that you just can't ignore. And it's somewhere our customers want to go. But LaGuardia or New York would have to pass the threshold test, which is: Is it a place where we can be successful financially? And I haven't given you an answer on that."


Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 7):
The reality is that SWA has lots of cities on the radar

Although no one really knows, my understanding has always been that there there is a short list or group of cities that receive closer attention. (I was told 5 cities years ago but this article says 6) The positions aren't really relevant until the number crunching indicates that things have changed in one city that make it stand out.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
dalneighbor
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 1:01 pm

Given WN's recent appetite for very large market opportunities, I'm guessing that LGA and/or EWR are at the very top of the list.
Wright Amendment = Federally Engineered AA Price Gouging
 
supa7E7
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Oh brother... who needs Southwest when we already have Comair? Seriously.



Southwest... the airline that "might" fly all kinds of places... someday. Wimps.
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
RDUDDJI
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 2:24 pm

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 4):
Also, at CLT they have the challenge of facility availability. Southwest can't move in until the completion of significant terminal expansion.

I guarantee you if WN wanted in to CLT, the airport would make it happen. When they came to RDU years ago (99 maybe?), the airport had no available gates, so they erected the 5 gate "trailer" that's still at the south end of Term A to allow for "temporary" expansion to accommodate WN. WN is like Walmart to a degree...if they want in your town...they'll get in.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
stirling
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 2:35 pm

Why not Fresno?

Why is always about the East Coast?
Delete this User
 
vega
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 2:45 pm

Quoting Stirling (Reply 12):
Why not Fresno?

Why is always about the East Coast?

Because East Coast people don't know that Fresno is "California's New Frontier".
We are but a moment in this vast Universe and when gone we will never have existed.
 
cltguy
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 2:46 pm

Well the only space available right now is on Concourse D....so SWA would have to pay a premium and be stationed at the International gates if it wanted to come to CLT today. Now, if Fly I goes down, then that opens up a gate in the A Concourse for SWA...or more likely, jetBlue.

Honestly I don't think that SWA will be coming to CLT in 2006. They have bigger fish to fry.

There is no more room at CLT to expand Concourse A...they just expanded it less than 2 years ago as close to the taxiway as regulations would allow. Their next domestic gate expansion will be Concourse B in 2007.
 
Go3Team
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 2:49 pm

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 4):
Let's not forget RIC

Only a stones throw from ORF, and RDU/BWI are equal in distance from RIC. FL recently started service in RIC, and B6 is scheduled to start next year. If WN decides to include RIC, I will be suprised.
Yay Pudding!
 
FATFlyer
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Tue Dec 20, 2005 3:05 pm

Quoting Stirling (Reply 12):
Why not Fresno?

Why is always about the East Coast?

I think FAT lost its chance when WN decided they could make money in places like PHL. Now there are a lot more cities of larger size in the mix. Fresno is probably in there but now has moved down the list from where it was just a few years ago.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
r311music
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:05 am

"Only a stones throw from ORF, and RDU/BWI are equal in distance from RIC. FL recently started service in RIC, and B6 is scheduled to start next year. If WN decides to include RIC, I will be suprised."

I wouldn't be suprised. Southwest made a deal with the governor of VA that if WN served ORF, they would eventually have to come over to RIC. Although I don't know if RIC has much room these days with all the new airlines showing up.
confusing use of time
 
Tornado82
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:36 am

Quoting A330323X (Reply 5):
Exciting? This story appears every six weeks,

Yep, especially in what is quickly becoming the only bigger rag for airline-based nonsense than the Indy Star... the Pittsburgh PG.

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 8):
You can read the full story here.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05353/624857.stm
Kelly's quote about new cities is:

...Surprise! The PG is printing an article that would make USAirways appear in a negative light by bragging up WN possibly/maybe/woulda/coulda/shoulda coming to US' biggest (in terms of mainline) hub. They all but performed "favors" for WN when they announced Pittsburgh, but since a little of that luster is fading as the novelty fades away, and since PIT had no significant "Southwest effect" because the "no-longer-monopolized effect" had begun long before Southwest came to town... the PG needs something new to talk about other than how its cheaper to fly to Philly than drive now (though still slower in many instances). If it involves Southwest, USAirways, or cities where USAirways is also big in... the Pittsburgh PG has lost nearly all credibility folks, in their (semi-deserving, but now overboard) hatred of USAirways. Sorry. In the ideal world the Pittsburgh PG would stick to what it does best, complaining about Mayor Murphy and talking about PA's on/off gambling... and the Indy Star would stick to what it does best, racing coverage and creating the Danica Patrick fake stardom. In the end, they're both just propaganda wagons when it comes to the airline industry that think because an airline used to be hubbed there, they are the end-all be-all of aviation industry knowledge.

WN is an O&D based airline. What the heck do they want out of CLT, with (in WN standards of how they think travelers will drive hours to airports) RDU right down the road already.

For the other rumors here... LGA/EWR... wow... that'll be funny for their fleet utilization and quick-turns. A quick turn at LGA is what, maybe 2 hours? If I were US/Comair/AEagle and WN came rolling into LGA after slots got axed... I'd send every RJ I own to LGA just to force WN into an even longer line.

DAY? Smack between IND and CMH? Come on. It's a nice little airport for an FL, but WN ain't goin' there. CVG, maybe. Their latest penchant seems to be going head to head with what they perceive as a dying carrier's non-fortressed or downgraded hubs. CVG fits the PIT/PHL/DEN mold. Why would WN want to go to DAY and fight an already-established FL who provides a better service (assigned seating, XM radio IFE, Biz class available) for similar fares when CVG is like fresh meat for LCCs?

[Edited 2005-12-20 16:38:40]

[Edited 2005-12-20 16:40:16]
 
globalflyer
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:49 am

Well I have a hand written letter from Herb himself from a few years ago telling me that WN will never serve ATL in its current state. Impossible for the quick turns that WN is famous for. Unless something dramatic happens to DL (and I think that they will defend ATL until their last breath) then we will not see WN here in ATL.

However with the Dobbins ARB in Marietta closing, would it be possible to see commerical service there? Runways handle the big military planes they would just need a terminal and we know from the Boeing Field debacle that they can afford this! It would be a great place for service but back in the 1980s Lamar Muse wanted to start a mini-hub for Muse Air at Fulton County Airport (Charlie Brown Field) on the West side of the city and this was quashed by city leaders and (probably DL as well)  Smile Then a new up start Skybus Airlines wanted to start 737-200s out of there in the mid-late 80s and the same fate happened so I would expect the same to happen if Dobbins ever came up for service?
Landing on every Continent almost on an annual basis!
 
jmc1975
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:52 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 18):
DAY? Smack between IND and CMH? Come on. It's a nice little airport for an FL, but WN ain't goin' there. CVG, maybe. Their latest penchant seems to be going head to head with what they perceive as a dying carrier's non-fortressed or downgraded hubs. CVG fits the PIT/PHL/DEN mold. Why would WN want to go to DAY and fight an already-established FL who provides a better service (assigned seating, XM radio IFE, Biz class available) for similar fares when CVG is like fresh meat for LCCs?

DAY would probably eventually also be good for a couple of daily JetBlue E-190 flights to JFK.
.......
 
BishopOfPHL
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:52 am

Tornado,

Good post....you're right-on with the PG. My in-laws are out there in PIT-area, and I've always noticed that the PG has some pretty steep grudges with certain organizations/companies/individuals. Their coverage of WN's arrival was a bit over the top, even made the comparable Phila. Inquirer's coverage of WN's PHL entry seem tame.

I'd agree, CVG has got to be tops on the proverbial WN list. I can't think of an airport more prime for LCC service, and without all the East-coast ATC delay issues. Heck, as much as I tend to stick to legacies, I'd much rather fly WN to CVG from here in PHL than what is slowly becoming an all RJ operation via DL.
 
Tornado82
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 1:01 am

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 20):
DAY would probably eventually also be good for a couple of daily JetBlue E-190 flights to JFK.

I'd think CMH over DAY for that, CMH has alot of high-yield type stuff... alot which has been alienated away from US and their legacy counterparts... hence the NetJets explosion. JetBlue might be an LCC in technicality, but it's pretty high class and beats everyone else's RJ's to NYC.

Quoting BishopOfPHL (Reply 21):
Tornado,

Good post....you're right-on with the PG.

Thanks, glad to see I'm not alone.

Quoting Globalflyer (Reply 19):
Impossible for the quick turns that WN is famous for.

So is PHL, but they're evidentally prospering there, despite the ATC/delay issues.
 
FATFlyer
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 1:40 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 18):
Surprise! The PG is printing an article that would make USAirways appear in a negative light

Uhmmm, Tornado check the byline. The PG is reprinting an article written by the Wall Street Journal. The PG didn't write it.

The WSJ site wasn't free so I found a link from elsewhere. The PG's editorial policies was not the reason I chose it, their subscription policy on the website was.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
Tornado82
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 1:55 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 23):
Uhmmm, Tornado check the byline. The PG is reprinting an article written by the Wall Street Journal. The PG didn't write it.

And the PG is still printing an article which would have no significance to PIT whatsoever (WN surely wouldn't run PIT-CLT flights, the O&D isn't there enough to dig into the established Dividend Miles base.) Once again, they (re)printed an article to vilify USAirways and/or pontificate Southwest. The classic SOS SOP at the PG. And they wonder why they're losing readership in the Steel City.
 
quickmover
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 1:59 am

"Mr. Kelly: The only thing we've said about LaGuardia is we want to stay on top of the changes in (traffic and airline restrictions) there, and next year is a big year for that."


What "big changes next year" is he talking about?
 
iowaman
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 4:41 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 18):
send every RJ I own to LGA just to force WN into an even longer line.

O good, let's screw up LGA more than it already is.  banghead 

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 24):
And the PG is still printing an article which would have no significance to PIT whatsoever (WN surely wouldn't run PIT-CLT flights, the O&D isn't there enough to dig into the established Dividend Miles base.)

The O&D isn't there because if the high fares US charges. If WN started that it would be like PIT-PHL, fares would drop and there would many more travelers.
 
Tornado82
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:01 am

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 26):
it would be like PIT-PHL

Are you still on that kick?  Silly

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 26):

O good, let's screw up LGA more than it already is

IF they do get rid of slots, it'll be screwed beyond belief anyways.
 
A330323X
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:09 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 18):
A quick turn at LGA is what, maybe 2 hours? If I were US/Comair/AEagle and WN came rolling into LGA after slots got axed... I'd send every RJ I own to LGA just to force WN into an even longer line.

They'd do that with or without WN, wouldn't have anything to do with them. It's what happened last time LGA got rid of slots for RJs. US/AA/DL (and even CO) all overran the airport.

And again, as I noted in several other threads, WN could start service to LGA right now, with 10 daily roundtrips, using Air21 slot exemptions. Wouldn't need any changes in the rules. How do you think B6 et al were able to start LGA service? And before WN cries that 10 isn't enough, they operate plenty of other stations with a similar number of daily flights.

What I like which doesn't get reported is that, contrary to popular belief, US is just a wee bit larger at PHL that it was a year ago. Guess who's added the majority of the flights, and who's made the delays worse?

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 26):
The O&D isn't there because if the high fares US charges. If WN started that it would be like PIT-PHL, fares would drop and there would many more travelers.

The O&D isn't there because the O&D isn't there. The PIT-PHL O&D market was 3x the size of the PIT-CLT O&D market, before WN entered it. I have no doubt that WN would increase the size of the PIT-CLT market, but it wouldn't be enough to make the market viable for them.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
c680
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:17 am

Quoting KarlB737 (Thread starter):
Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Mainly because the captain tilted it down 5 degrees as he set up his approach to BWI...  Smile
My happy place is FL470 - what's yours?
 
Tornado82
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:32 am

Quoting A330323X (Reply 28):

What I like which doesn't get reported is that, contrary to popular belief, US is just a wee bit larger at PHL that it was a year ago. Guess who's added the majority of the flights, and who's made the delays worse?

The PG couldn't write something against the chosen ones though. Never. Nor could any of the other media. PHL needs to go slots, and then some belt tightening by all. Some of US' former prop flights that became RJ's now that US has more RJ's than brains aren't helping that congestion either I wouldn't think... but no doubt that WN's additional 737's are putting an even bigger clamp on the operation.

Quoting C680 (Reply 29):
Mainly because the captain tilted it down 5 degrees as he set up his approach to BWI... Smile

I was thinking RDU... which will remain the NC gateway for WN. For that matter, doesn't RDU have higher O&D than CLT??

Quoting A330323X (Reply 28):
The PIT-PHL O&D market was 3x the size of the PIT-CLT O&D market, before WN entered it. I have no doubt that WN would increase the size of the PIT-CLT market, but it wouldn't be enough to make the market viable for them.

There's alot of intrastate commerce between Philly and Pittsburgh, many companies having offices on both ends of the state and whatnot. These new "Turnpike shuttles" as they've been nicknamed by some are basically no different than the East coast shuttles going DCA-LGA-BOS and whatnot. I know it's hard for many outsiders to believe, but there is a significant amount of PIT-PHL commerce. (For that matter, PIT was the highest O&D market from ABE even, for the same reason.) So much, that even way back in the day there were numerous engineering studies at making a second line off of what was then the Pennsylvania Railroad's Northeast Corridor (the same as the Acela/Amtrak NE corridor region now) to run from PHL to PIT... but it got nixed by that little impediment known as the Allegheny Mountain range/Horseshoe Curve, etc. Prior to WN coming in, the Turnpike Shuttles were just that, people driving back and forth on the PA Turnpike and saving the airways for those privledged enough or who thought their time was valuable enough to pay what it takes to fly. Today people fly it thanks to WN, even though, as I've done the math on here before, you only gain an average of 20 minutes city-center to city-center, and on an overcast IFR day you typically lose time. There is nothing like that PIT-CLT, there never will be, and WN would have to be moronic to begin PIT-CLT flights as they did PIT-PHL, because the business isn't there, and could not be developed regardless of fares. You could give dirt cheap flights from PIT to say CID too... that doesn't mean anyone would ever have a need to go to CID to use said dirt cheap flight.
 
BNinMSY
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:44 am

I just wish they would start up in SHV with service to MSY-MCO; BNA-BWI; STL-MDW; or HOU; DEN-OAK!
 
ScottB
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 9:16 am

Quoting A330323X (Reply 28):
What I like which doesn't get reported is that, contrary to popular belief, US is just a wee bit larger at PHL that it was a year ago. Guess who's added the majority of the flights, and who's made the delays worse?

Not just "a wee bit larger." In September, 2004, prior to Bankruptcy II, US had 403 daily departures from PHL (201 mainline & 202 Express). According to the current corporate fact sheet, excluding flights operated by America West, US now has 469 daily departures from PHL (152 mainline & 317 Express). The net increase of 66 US-coded departures (excluding AWA) is significantly more than the 50-odd departures added by Southwest since they entered PHL. So US Airways is as much to blame as Southwest for the increase in delays at PHL, if not more so.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 18):
since PIT had no significant "Southwest effect" because the "no-longer-monopolized effect" had begun long before Southwest came to town

Actually, PIT is seeing a "Southwest effect"; it's just been drowned out by the no-longer-a-hub effect so far. Total passenger numbers are down due to the scale-down of the hub, but O&D traffic is up so much that the County had to build an alternate security checkpoint to handle it. It's not entirely due to WN; AirTran and Independence have also brought needed competition and lowder fares to PIT. The US Airways pulldown was going to happen with or without Southwest; having at least some of that capacity replaced at lower fares is good for the region.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 18):
What the heck do they want out of CLT, with (in WN standards of how they think travelers will drive hours to airports) RDU right down the road already.

CLT is relatively uncongested and according to 1Q05 DOT figures, has the highest fare premium of any airport in the U.S. at 40%. RDU had 34% more O&D traffic than CLT in that period in spite of having 25% less metro-area population. Charlotte is one of the few metro areas with more than one million people without WN service. Unless and until US Airways changes its pricing, CLT is an extremely attractive target for low-fare carrier incursion.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 30):
WN would have to be moronic to begin PIT-CLT flights as they did PIT-PHL, because the business isn't there

Probably, but you can bet that they'd fly PHL-CLT and sell the tickets for about a quarter of the average US Airways fare. I imagine they'd happily fly people PIT-PHL-CLT for about half of what US charges now -- and still make a profit.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 30):
Prior to WN coming in, the Turnpike Shuttles were just that, people driving back and forth on the PA Turnpike and saving the airways for those privledged enough or who thought their time was valuable enough to pay what it takes to fly. Today people fly it thanks to WN

My goodness, what a horrible crime, making air travel affordable even to people who aren't privileged! This is a terrible disservice to the passengers who preferred paying $250 one-way in the past; I am sure they are cursing Southwest for coming to PIT.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 30):
The PG couldn't write something against the chosen ones though.

Well perhaps the Pittsburgh media will change its tune once Southwest decides to lay off thousands of employees in the region, cuts service by over 60% at PIT, cuts pay by double-digit percentages to those lucky enough to still have jobs, dumps its lease obligations through the bankruptcy courts, dumps pension obligations via bankruptcy, violates its labor contracts, offshores jobs that had been performed by PIT-area residents, etc.

Quoting Cltguy (Reply 14):
Honestly I don't think that SWA will be coming to CLT in 2006. They have bigger fish to fry.

I agree with this assessment; they have a slew of expansion opportunities at MDW, PIT, PHL, BWI, PHX, LAS, and possibly DEN. Plus they'll probably be rebuilding their MSY station as New Orleans continues to recover.

For what it's worth, my opinion is that this ought to be a wake up call to "LCC" management. I honestly don't see how they'll meet with any greater success than FlyI by throwing about 300 high-cost regional aircraft into East Coast markets; the number of markets that will support those yields will continue to diminish over time. Failing to fix the airline's pricing will mean that WN, B6, and FL will continue to expand into US Airways' core East Coast markets.
 
Tornado82
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 11:14 am

Please put down the Kool-aid.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
but O&D traffic is up so much that the County had to build an alternate security checkpoint to handle it. It's not entirely due to WN; AirTran and Independence have also brought needed competition and lowder fares to PIT.

And like I said... and you kind of alluded to it... this increase began BEFORE Southwest. The all-time O&D record was initially broken @ PIT before Southwest ever came to town. It continues to increase now, but it's just riding the wave now... Southwest grabbed a rising wave and is riding it to the crest, which hopefully for PIT never happens.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
PIT-PHL-CLT for about half of what US charges now

Who the hell wants to go all the way to PHL to get to CLT. That'll take a whole damn day when you figure the flight to PHL plus the connection time (let's be generous and say only 45 minutes) plus the standard 45 minutes of taxi time at PHL and you've already wasted 2.5 hours vs that direct PIT-CLT flight. That doesn't even account for a typical PHL flow control/ground stop/ATC delay. There isn't much leisure going PIT-CLT O&D, and for the quite-limited business travel between the two cities, they're not going to want to go AT LEAST 2.5 hours out of their way both directions just to save some money. All of the sudden you've gone from a leave PIT in the morning, return in the evening after your meeting business trip to an overnighter... and those lodging expenses will negate the airfare savings.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
I am sure they are cursing Southwest for coming to PIT.

Nobody said they are. But there's no need for the PG to constantly kick the dead horse of the fact that US dehubbed, and no need for them to still perform the editorial equivalent of sexual favors for Herb, Gary, and Co. Look as so:

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 18):
the Pittsburgh PG has lost nearly all credibility folks, in their (semi-deserving, but now overboard) hatred of USAirways. Sorry. In th

Notice "Semi-deserving, but now overboard"

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
My goodness, what a horrible crime, making air travel affordable even to people who aren't privileged!

Once again nobody said it was a crime. I was just saying why there is so much O&D between PIT-PHL, but NEVER would be between PIT-CLT. There's no current I-79/77 market to CLT, like there was hopping across the mountains on the turnpike, to become an airline market just like happened in the PIT-PHL runs.
 
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:42 pm

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 33):
It continues to increase now, but it's just riding the wave now... Southwest grabbed a rising wave and is riding it to the crest, which hopefully for PIT never happens.

I'd say that Southwest is helping to increase the size of the wave well beyond what it would have been otherwise, but we will just have to agree to disagree.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 33):
But there's no need for the PG to constantly kick the dead horse of the fact that US dehubbed, and no need for them to still perform the editorial equivalent of sexual favors for Herb, Gary, and Co.

Frankly, I don't find that this article is either. It's a story (an interview, actually) that ran in the Wall Street Journal. US Airways is not mentioned a single time in the article; the greater focus of the questions (to me) seems to be on the challenges Southwest faces going forward. Moreover, Southwest is now holds the second-highest market share at PIT, is likely to continue growing there, and may eventually eclipse US Airways in market share there; thse facts make the story relevant to people in Pittsburgh.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 33):
Who the hell wants to go all the way to PHL to get to CLT

It really all depends on how much the difference in cost is; you know as well as I do that people will spend hours to save a couple hundred dollars. In any case, I'm not sure I see the point of harping on why or why not Southwest would offer PIT-CLT; Charlotte was mentioned by the CEO in a broad-ranging story which was written for the national business newspaper of record. The P-G merely picked up the interview. There's no content which makes the remotest suggestion that Southwest intends to fly to Charlotte from Pittsburgh.
 
ACAfan
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:59 pm

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 4):
Once US Airways fully adopts HP's pricing structure, the CLT O&D fares will drop significantly

 laughing   laughing   laughing   laughing   laughing   laughing   laughing 
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A330323X
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:10 pm

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 30):
Some of US' former prop flights that became RJ's now that US has more RJ's than brains aren't helping that congestion either I wouldn't think

Sorry, but you're wrong. The number of prop flights at PHL is exactly the same as it's been. There are more RJ flights, but they're replacing mainline flights, not props.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
Not just "a wee bit larger." In September, 2004, prior to Bankruptcy II, US had 403 daily departures from PHL (201 mainline & 202 Express). According to the current corporate fact sheet, excluding flights operated by America West, US now has 469 daily departures from PHL (152 mainline & 317 Express). The net increase of 66 US-coded departures (excluding AWA) is significantly more than the 50-odd departures added by Southwest since they entered PHL. So US Airways is as much to blame as Southwest for the increase in delays at PHL, if not more so.

September 2004 isn't a year ago.  Yeah sure

It's prior to the PIT pull-down, and yes, that made them add capacity at PHL. I don't have the numbers for 12/04, but in 1/05 they had 459 flights at PHL, compared to 469 today. I'd call that a wee bit larger.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
For what it's worth, my opinion is that this ought to be a wake up call to "LCC" management. I honestly don't see how they'll meet with any greater success than FlyI by throwing about 300 high-cost regional aircraft into East Coast markets; the number of markets that will support those yields will continue to diminish over time.

I guess it's a good thing then that the US fleet plan doesn't call for 300 high-cost regional jets, but you already knew that.

136 high-cost 50-seat regional jets, not 300. Oh, and I'd add that they're not only high-cost, but high-RASM as well.

52 70-seat jets that are a lower cost than the 50-seat jets.

65 90-seat jets that are lower cost than the 70-seat jets, and much lower cost than the 50-seat jets.

All together, even counting the larger jets, that's 253, not 300. But again, you already knew that.
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cltguy
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:14 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 32):
RDU had 34% more O&D traffic than CLT in that period in spite of having 25% less metro-area population.

The latest figures show that with the introduction of AirTran service to CLT the O&D differential with RDU was more than cut in half to 12%.
 
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 3:10 pm

Quoting A330323X (Reply 36):
September 2004 isn't a year ago. Yeah sure

It's prior to the PIT pull-down, and yes, that made them add capacity at PHL. I don't have the numbers for 12/04, but in 1/05 they had 459 flights at PHL, compared to 469 today. I'd call that a wee bit larger.

January 2005 isn't a year ago either, and whether the 66 flights were added over 15 months or 11 is really immaterial; US Airways is as much to blame or more so than anyone else for the delays at PHL.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 36):
I guess it's a good thing then that the US fleet plan doesn't call for 300 high-cost regional jets, but you already knew that.

136 high-cost 50-seat regional jets, not 300. Oh, and I'd add that they're not only high-cost, but high-RASM as well.

52 70-seat jets that are a lower cost than the 50-seat jets.

65 90-seat jets that are lower cost than the 70-seat jets, and much lower cost than the 50-seat jets.

All together, even counting the larger jets, that's 253, not 300. But again, you already knew that.

Whether they are 50-, 70-, or 86-seat jets is pretty immaterial; they are still significantly higher-cost than mainline aircraft. As a point of comparison, Frontier breaks out the CASM it sees for the 70-seat CRJ's operated on its behalf by Horizon; in the most recent quarter, that CASM was 12.87 cents. For reference, Frontier's mainline CASM was 8.68 cents in that quarter.

Guess all those high-RASM regional jets are doing great for FlyI, Delta, and Northwest, right? The problem with the whole drive-RASM-up-with RJ's strategy is that it is simply unsustainable in the long term! It was a broken strategy leading up to the last bankruptcy, and it is STILL a broken strategy. RJ's (and props) are useful in a limited number of markets, but using RJ's from your East Coast hubs to ATL, IAH, DFW, MSP, STL, MCI, etc. is not workable when the competition is flying mainline with far lower unit costs.

Yields are going to continue to decline on the East Coast. WN, B6, and FL together have well over 50 new aircraft entering their fleets this year, and those high-RASM RJ markets are looking pretty good to them.

Also, you will note that I said high-cost regional aircraft; while props offer lower costs than RJ's, they are certainly not low-cost by any means.

The combined airline contemplates operating 350 regional aircraft according to its SEC filings; it is likely that the vast majority of these will be on the East Coast.
 
A330323X
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 4:06 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
January 2005 isn't a year ago either, and whether the 66 flights were added over 15 months or 11 is really immaterial; US Airways is as much to blame or more so than anyone else for the delays at PHL.

You're right, a year less ten days is a much more inappropriate comparison than a year plus three months.  Yeah sure

And US won't be adding any more capacity to PHL anytime soon. WN is allegedly adding another 60 flights this year.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
As a point of comparison, Frontier breaks out the CASM it sees for the 70-seat CRJ's operated on its behalf by Horizon; in the most recent quarter, that CASM was 12.87 cents.

Horizon is a high-cost provider. US Airways also breaks out its regional CASM, which was 12.11 cents in the third quarter, excluding the at-risk operators. As the number of 50-seat RJs decline and the number of 70- and 90-seat RJs increase, I expect that number to drop to 10.5-11 cents.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
Guess all those high-RASM regional jets are doing great for FlyI, Delta, and Northwest, right?

You know full well that US has a higher RASM than any of those carriers, far higher than FlyI. I think you're the first person to describe the regional jets at FlyI as being high-RASM. US also has had far better market selection with its RJs than DL, not sending them to low-yielding Florida markets. US Airways Express was operating at break-even before the merger. (HP Express was losing money, which is one reason they've been sending CR9s out east.)

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
Yields are going to continue to decline on the East Coast. WN, B6, and FL together have well over 50 new aircraft entering their fleets this year, and those high-RASM RJ markets are looking pretty good to them.

Yields on the east coast for US are up nearly 20% year-over-year this quarter, and most analysts and US itself expect double-digit yield growth to continue for all of next year. The east coast is performing far better than the west coast.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
but using RJ's from your East Coast hubs to ATL, IAH, DFW, MSP, STL, MCI, etc. is not workable when the competition is flying mainline with far lower unit costs.

It certainly seems to me that perhaps US was just ahead of the curve, as I see DL slashing capacity to OAL hubs, and NW reducing a number of OAL hub freqencies to RJs, and even AA reducing routes like PIT-DFW, DCA-ORD, PHL-ORD to some or all RJs.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
Also, you will note that I said high-cost regional aircraft; while props offer lower costs than RJ's, they are certainly not low-cost by any means.

The combined airline contemplates operating 350 regional aircraft according to its SEC filings; it is likely that the vast majority of these will be on the East Coast.

They certainly don't contemplate operating 350 regional aircraft. That number must include the aircraft operated by Colgan and Air Midwest. Their fleet plan provides for 253 small jets, as I posted above, and they currently have 58 Dash 8s flying for them, and that number is falling.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
ScottB
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 4:48 pm

Quoting A330323X (Reply 39):
You're right, a year less ten days is a much more inappropriate comparison than a year plus three months.

Which is still avoiding the fact that US Airways has tried to jam even more flights into PHL than Southwest; even worse, they've done this by adding over 100 Express flights and cutting 40-odd mainline.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 39):
Horizon is a high-cost provider. US Airways also breaks out its regional CASM, which was 12.11 cents in the third quarter, excluding the at-risk operators.

Bzzzzzt. Read the 3rd quarter earnings release more carefully. The 12.11 cent CASM you cite is actually derived from the full quarter's AWA numbers and about 4 days of US East. If you read down to the US Airways, Inc. figures, you see that the US Airways Express (East) CASM was a mind-boggling 15.92 cents.

The America West Express CASM of 11.76 cents is probably close to as low as you'll get, considering that they were already operating a predominantly CR9 fleet.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 39):
I think you're the first person to describe the regional jets at FlyI as being high-RASM.

Sarcasm is lost on some.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 39):
You know full well that US has a higher RASM than any of those carriers

I also know that this is why the real LCC's will continue to add capacity in US's markets -- precisely because those high yields mean markets which are primed for low-fare stimulation.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 39):
Yields on the east coast for US are up nearly 20% year-over-year this quarter, and most analysts and US itself expect double-digit yield growth to continue for all of next year.

US didn't expect to be back in bankruptcy within a year-and-a-half, either. US's yields (and I mean US East here) were up 5.8% for the quarter, year-over-year. Now yields were up nearly 20% for AWA year-over-year, but I suspect that Virgin America may change things out West next year.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 39):
It certainly seems to me that perhaps US was just ahead of the curve, as I see DL slashing capacity to OAL hubs

I guess I missed seeing Delta cutting back PIT, PHL, CLT, ORD, DFW, IAH, MSP, DTW, etc. to all-RJ service. Delta has been generally scaling back domestic service as a result of filing Chapter 11. Not that I think that the other network carriers' reliance on RJ's is workable long-term, either.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 39):
They certainly don't contemplate operating 350 regional aircraft.

Read the disclosures filed with the SEC this summer. They anticipated 360 mainline and 350 Express.
 
A330323X
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:49 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 40):
Bzzzzzt. Read the 3rd quarter earnings release more carefully. The 12.11 cent CASM you cite is actually derived from the full quarter's AWA numbers and about 4 days of US East. If you read down to the US Airways, Inc. figures, you see that the US Airways Express (East) CASM was a mind-boggling 15.92 cents.

You're right, I apologize, I was in a hurry and didn't look at the numbers carefully. I would submit that the US numbers are way higher than they should be due to the transition from Mesa/Trans States to Air Wisconsin (and from MidAtlantic to Republic), which they're really doing in an inefficient manner. I'm sure that added a great deal to CASM due to vastly decreased utilization and integration issues. They've also negotiated significantly reduced rates for the Air Wisconsin flying as opposed to the Mesa/Trans States flying, and the rates for Chautauqua flying are coming down greatly as well. And the fact remains that US Airways Express has been operating around break-even (15.96 cent RASM), so I'd imagine they'll be doing better yet when they get the CASM down.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 40):
The America West Express CASM of 11.76 cents is probably close to as low as you'll get, considering that they were already operating a predominantly CR9 fleet.

Well HPX itself reported a 10.42 cent CASM last year in the 3rd quarter, so I'd say they certainly have room to go down. I still think an 11 cent Express CASM is realistic for end 2006 and 2007 when they have the optimal fleet mix.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 40):
US's yields (and I mean US East here) were up 5.8% for the quarter, year-over-year.

When I said this quarter's US/East yields were up 20%, I was referring to the fourth quarter so far, as heard in earnings calls, investor presentations, and traffic releases, along with analysts' reports. US/West yields are up in the low double digits, the East network is performing stronger and is expected to continue to do so.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 40):
I guess I missed seeing Delta cutting back PIT, PHL, CLT, ORD, DFW, IAH, MSP, DTW, etc. to all-RJ service. Delta has been generally scaling back domestic service as a result of filing Chapter 11. Not that I think that the other network carriers' reliance on RJ's is workable long-term, either.

PIT-CVG on DL is all RJ. PIT-DFW on AA is all RJ. PIT-EWR on CO is all RJ. PIT-CLE on CO is all Beech 1900. PIT-MEM on NW is all RJ. PIT-IAD on UA is RJ/prop. PIT-ORD on AA is all RJ. PIT-MKE on YX is all RJ. PIT-YYZ on AC is all RJ.

CLT-ORD on AA is all RJ. CLT-STL on AA is all RJ. CLT-CLE/EWR/IAH on CO is all RJ--no mainline from CO at all in CLT. CLT-CVG on DL is all RJ. CLT-MEM on NW is all RJ. CLT-IAD on UA is all RJ. CLT-YYZ on AC is all RJ.

PHL-STL on AA is all RJ. PHL-YUL on AC is all RJ. PHL-YYZ on AC is all RJ. PHL-MEM on NW is all RJ. PHL-IAD on UA is all RJ.

And that's not counting the scores of routes that are partly or mostly RJs.

And you're acting as if US has completely cut all mainline service to DFW, CLE, DTW, ORD, et al. They certainly have not.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 40):
Read the disclosures filed with the SEC this summer. They anticipated 360 mainline and 350 Express.

I'm sure they have used the 350 Express number, I'm just saying it includes the Colgan and Air Midwest aircraft, whose costs aren't really relevant to US.


Edited to add: I'm off to bed, so if you reply, I won't respond until morning.

[Edited 2005-12-21 09:50:22]
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Tornado82
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Wed Dec 21, 2005 10:37 pm

Quoting A330323X (Reply 36):
I guess it's a good thing then that the US fleet plan doesn't call for 300 high-cost regional jets, but you already knew that.

http://www.expressjet.com/fleet.asp Hmmm.... Continental sure seems to be making a bit of money with 266 of "high-cost regional jets," so they're surely not impossible to make a profit with. Although the ERJ is a bit cheaper to run than the CRJ.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 40):
Which is still avoiding the fact that US Airways has tried to jam even more flights into PHL than Southwest

It's their hub so they can do what they want. I see it as no problem, pushing Southwest further to the back of the line for takeoff. US' strategy doesn't care about quick-turns as much as Southwest's, if WN doesn't like it there are clear taxiways and empty gates at Lehigh Valley International.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 40):
Virgin America may change things out West next year.

No, they won't. Virgin America is like a JetBlue with a hub in SFO instead of JFK. If JetBlue didn't kill transcons for everyone else, Slutty Europe (my new nickname for them since it's just a European airline with some cooked ownership books) won't either. And as for up and down the west coast... HP has been fighting off bargain-basement Southwest for years, Slutty Europe isn't going to be cheaper than that, unless they like losing money.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
US Airways is as much to blame or more so than anyone else for the delays at PHL.

Not really. US' Dashes can still leap off runways that an RJ or Southwest's 737's couldn't dream of.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
it is likely that the vast majority of these will be on the East Coast.

Really? It is likely you are wrong. Ever look at HP's network in the west. A whole lot of RJ's out there, and some props running around the mountains too. What do you consider a vast majority? To me that would mean 80-90%, and that's wrong to me. Although, look at the networks. Alot more flights occur in the east coast than the west, so when you look at things proportionally, it would make sense, wouldn't it?

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
and whether the 66 flights were added over 15 months or 11 is really immaterial;

No, it's not immaterial. The PIT cutbacks were a big deal for both PIT and PHL. It was when PHL went from bad, to worse, operationally. Since then US learned their lesson, tried debanking the hub, and all kinds of other tricks... Southwest on the other hand kept adding more and more.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 41):
PIT-YYZ on AC is all RJ.

False. Dash 8s. As is most of AC's Great Lakes region market.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 41):
PIT-ORD on AA is all RJ

Because they've always been a #3 player in that market for years now, and if you count WN at Midway AA is the #4 player.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 41):
PIT-EWR on CO is all RJ. PIT-CLE on CO is all Beech 1900.

The CLE flight is obviously just for connections because nobody in their right mind would O&D that route... and I'd venture to say wouldn't exist at all if it weren't for US dropping a ton of those Great Lakes region routes which were easily served by props from PIT just like they are from CLE, over the past few years. SBN, FWA, GRR, etc connections are probably what keeps that route running for CO. I can remember as far back as '02 CO was always the cheapest answer on PIT-Great Lakes routes, even before US' drawdown, but who wanted to ride 2 legs on a B1900? I like 'em, but not that much, and US would take me to MGW for about $40 more. PIT-EWR is overserved with too much frequency from both CO/US, in some cases the flights are probably drafting off of each other. It's all RJ's from both ends. If someone would sit back and realize the irrationality of the schedule and the problems that insane frequencies like that cause at EWR, I could see CO cutting back frequency, and putting a 735 on the route on a 2-1 replacement with ERJ's... but CO actually makes money on their ERJ's and doesn't mind it. They might complain about 735 CASM's, but they're better than 2x ERJ's.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 41):
PIT-MEM on NW is all RJ.

NW's MEM-everywhere is all RJ for the most part and will probably get worse as the Avros take a hike to the desert. That would be like comparing to a CO route from CLE or a DL route from CVG.
 
A330323X
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Thu Dec 22, 2005 1:32 am

I fully know *why* a number of those routes are run on RJs. My point to ScottB was just that there is a very long list of other airlines running all RJs between their hubs and US hubs, and that it's not just a US thing.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 42):
No, it's not immaterial. The PIT cutbacks were a big deal for both PIT and PHL. It was when PHL went from bad, to worse, operationally. Since then US learned their lesson, tried debanking the hub, and all kinds of other tricks... Southwest on the other hand kept adding more and more.

Yes, and among other things, US has *cut* flights from 495 in March to the 469 today. And that's only partially attributable to the fleet shrinking, they could have kept the flights there and made cuts elsewhere if they wanted to.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 42):
PIT-EWR is overserved with too much frequency from both CO/US, in some cases the flights are probably drafting off of each other. It's all RJ's from both ends. If someone would sit back and realize the irrationality of the schedule and the problems that insane frequencies like that cause at EWR

I know you love to say that, but it's just not true. PIT-NYC is a very large O&D market (962 pax), and a lot of that goes to EWR. Additionally, you have connections at both ends. US also has a bigger following at EWR than their service would indicate, as they once had a large mini-hub presence there. The business travelers that fly the route demand the frequencies. Do some of the flights go out with low load factors? Probably, but that's not the point. There's a reason why EWR is the PIT market for US that has more frequency than any other market that's not a hub/focus city. Heck, only DCA/PHL have more frequencies from US at PIT. EWR at 6 is the same as BOS/CLT/LGA. And that reason is that the average one-way fare is $233.57, providing for a yield of almost 69 cents! With those yields, and heavy pax numbers, both US and CO have to offer a number of frequencies.

And yes, I'm sure ScottB will now chime in and say that PIT-EWR is the ideal market for an LCC. He's probably right, though I don't know who would do it. FL failed in the PIT-LGA market (and two others), so I don't think they'll be rushing into it. WN of course doesn't and isn't about to serve EWR, and if they did enter LGA, they'd only get 10 roundtrips, and they wouldn't serve PIT with them. B6 from JFK is of course a possibility, but that would compete with the LGA traffic much more than the EWR traffic.
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Tornado82
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Thu Dec 22, 2005 1:52 am

Quoting A330323X (Reply 43):
I know you love to say that,

Yeah but let's face it... "schedules" at EWR are more like "suggestions" with the troubles they have there, especially by late afternoon/early evening. So all that 60-90 minute frequency is pretty moot when you're delayed for 2 hours anyways. Especially when in some cases US and CO's flights are within 5 minutes from each other... there is a frequency glut. I'm not saying US needs to go mainline, I'm actually saying CO. Although US might be in a better position if they put a CR9 or E70 on there to dump a frequency... CO has nothing between the ERJ145 and the 735.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 43):
And yes, I'm sure ScottB will now chime in and say that PIT-EWR is the ideal market for an LCC. He's probably right, though I don't know who would do it.

Who has gates at EWR to spare, does FL even? Routes like that are probably where FlyI missed the boat. Instead of strictly hubbing through IAD for any intra-Northeast travels, some key P2P's like that could have been golden regardless of CRJ's. Of course instead of just dropping fares to say $250 r/t, they would have done something crazy like $29 o/w, and defeated the purpose.
 
Tornado82
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Thu Dec 22, 2005 2:03 am

It's definitely for another thread... but I bet between A.net we could come up with a couple dozen P2P routes that Southwest will never touch through the Northeast that could be extremely profitable on an RJ LCC like FlyI... similiar to that aforementioned EWR-PIT.

As for that EWR... I'll be taking the girlfriend back to EWR to fly home to her parents' in DAY in a few hours. Bought about a month in advance CO was $169 direct on the ERJ, in competition with FL's DAY-ATL-EWR routings of $149. Packed full ERJ's, @ about $60 in "fare" each way, on a route of under 500 miles... looks marginally profitable, not to mention that when I tried to buy a similar flight from within the magical 14 day window it suddenly cost in the neighborhood of $400, and you know some business people were still buying it then too. Who says RJ's can't make money on reasonable LCC fares?
 
A330323X
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RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Thu Dec 22, 2005 2:28 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 44):
Especially when in some cases US and CO's flights are within 5 minutes from each other... there is a frequency glut.

Well there are obviously certain times of the day when businessmen like to travel, and neither US nor CO is about to cede those customers to the other, so they have departures at the same time. It's not like they can sit down and coordinate their schedules and say you take these pax, I'll take those. I think you'll find the same in most business markets where two carriers compete, it's not a PIT-EWR thing.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 44):
Although US might be in a better position if they put a CR9 or E70 on there to dump a frequency

US has had the EMB-170 on PIT-EWR before (and I mean after the PIT cuts), it's too big. The 6 frequencies are really needed. Any fewer and the pax will go to CO out of necessity, even if they're loyal to US otherwise.
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Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:14 am

Quoting A330323X (Reply 46):
Any fewer and the pax will go to CO out of necessity, even if they're loyal to US otherwise.

It'll be the best decision of their lives. I know it's scary to get rid of that Dividend Miles card, but I survived. The support group really helped.  Wink
 
iowaman
Posts: 3864
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 2:29 am

RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Thu Dec 22, 2005 5:51 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 27):
Are you still on that kick?

Yes, becuase you didn't believe PIT-PHL until later in this thread.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 27):
IF they do get rid of slots, it'll be screwed beyond belief anyways.

 checkmark 

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 33):
And like I said... and you kind of alluded to it... this increase began BEFORE Southwest

Southwest added to this hike in O&D pasengers greatly

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 33):
was just saying why there is so much O&D between PIT-PHL, but NEVER would be between PIT-CLT

See, you said how I was "still on that kick"when I said there is O&D betweeen PIT and PHL and now you are saying there is so much O&D between PIT-PHL but not PIT and CLT. PIT-CLT on WN would make O&D jump and could easily be done.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 42):
if WN doesn't like it there are clear taxiways and empty gates at Lehigh Valley International.

No, cause you'd bitch about that too.
 
ScottB
Posts: 5815
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

RE: Charlotte Remains On Southwest's Radar

Thu Dec 22, 2005 6:18 am

Quoting A330323X (Reply 41):
They've also negotiated significantly reduced rates for the Air Wisconsin flying as opposed to the Mesa/Trans States flying, and the rates for Chautauqua flying are coming down greatly as well.

I have seen no indications that Air Wisconsin's rates are any lower than Mesa's or Trans States'. ZW didn't get the US Express flying because they're a low-cost provider; they're getting it because they invested $125 million in the business. In fact, they lost the United Express flying because they were a high-cost provider -- to be replaced by Mesa and Trans States, among others. Chautauqua agreed to reduce its guaranteed profit margin by about 3 percent to 8 percent, if memory serves. That would put the CASM passed through to US at around 13.34 cents for CHQ, going from their 3rd quarter report.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 41):
And the fact remains that US Airways Express has been operating around break-even (15.96 cent RASM), so I'd imagine they'll be doing better yet when they get the CASM down.

This assumes two things -- that US Express won't face RASM pressure as low-cost carrier presence expands and that the division of revenue between mainline and Express is meaningful on routes where US keeps all the revenue.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 41):
Well HPX itself reported a 10.42 cent CASM last year in the 3rd quarter, so I'd say they certainly have room to go down.

This assumes fuel costs will go down to last fall's levels; I don't see it happening absent a significant worldwide decrease in demand for petroleum.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 41):
And you're acting as if US has completely cut all mainline service to DFW, CLE, DTW, ORD, et al. They certainly have not.

CLE gets one mainline flight per day, DTW gets two. My point isn't that no one flies hub-hub flights with RJ's; rather that serving some of the nation's largest markets (like ATL, DTW, IAH, DFW) mostly or entirely with RJ's is not competitive on costs or product.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 43):
And yes, I'm sure ScottB will now chime in and say that PIT-EWR is the ideal market for an LCC. He's probably right, though I
don't know who would do it.

Yes, it is a great market for an LCC. No, I don't know who would serve it today. Yes, I think someone will seize the opportunity to serve it in the next five years -- whether that is jetBlue, AirTran, or someone else remains to be seen. The potential traffic density and yields are simply too attractive.

Quoting A330323X (Reply 43):
FL failed in the PIT-LGA market (and two others), so I don't think they'll be rushing into it.

They failed in the MDW-MSP market before as well and are jumping back in. I'd add that the industry looked far different in 2000/2001 than it does today. AirTran is a far more potent, financially stable competitor now; US Airways has less ability to engage in protracted fare wars, especially in what are now non-core markets. If AirTran is willing to go into MDW-EWR, I can certainly see them going into PIT-EWR.

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