eugdog
Posts: 426
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2001 11:32 pm

Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:20 am

Concorde was a brilliant engineering success but a commercial flop not selling a single aircraft (300 sales were forecasted!)

The A380 is also a brilliant engineering success but is not selling very well.

The A380 like Concorde was conceived by politicians who saw it as a demonstration of European superiority over the US. Did not Chirac, Blair and Schroeder attend the first flight ceremonies? Large or supersonic planes may be politically sexy but are not always the right thing to do.

The main selling difficulty with the A380 is that it needs improved airport facilities - only a few airports are willing make the necessary improvement.

Another problem with high capacity aircraft is that whilst they have great economics if they are full - in the low season they fly half full hence negating the economic benefits. By using smaller aircraft you can reduce capacity in the low season by reducing the number of flights.

Some people have argued that nearly 800 747 will need to be replaced over the decade. But I think these will be replaced by 777 and A340 (if they improve it!) because of the ability to offer more flexible capacity.

The A380 has been a very bad mistake for Airbus - it put all it political and financial capital into the aircraft at the expense of the more lucrative 787/350 market. Even worse is that Airbus can no longer expect European politicians to give large subsidies to new models becuase of the fallout over the A350 fiasco.

Airbus demanded large subsidies for the A350 which was only conceived to compete against the 787. The US went ballistic over this. The result is the abrogation of the Airbus/Boeing subsidy agreement between the US and Europe by the US. Airbus is unlikely to get any thing like the same subsidies as it did before. Even Mandelsohn the Europe trade commisioner has proposed major reductions in the development subsidies (which have been rejected by the US).

Airbus have had to fund the A350 without government subsidy. It cannot afford to develop a brand new plane like the 787. It will also have to do something about the A340 (replace it or greatly improve it as it is outclassed by the 777) and think about a A320 replacement. And it will have to do it with far less government subsidy!

A
 
kyair
Posts: 339
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2004 5:51 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:26 am

I'm not sure how the 380 will eventually play out for Airbus, but it's certainly no Concorde!! The Concorde was limited to essentially one route - New York-Western Europe - due to range and noise problems. While the 380 needs airport improvements/expansions, these have been or are being done.

There's a market for this aircraft, as well as for the 747-8I. Time will tell who had the best idea.

Let the a vs. b crap begin.
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened - Dr. Seuss
 
PlaneDane
Posts: 347
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 3:08 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:32 am

Oh, Eugdog. It helps that you're European and that you do have some positive things to say about the A380, so I hope you don't get pummeled for starting this thread.

Take care...
 
mham001
Posts: 4287
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:46 am

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
Airbus have had to fund the A350 without government subsidy. It cannot afford to develop a brand new plane like the 787.

The question is why they can't do it without subsidy. They claim they can. They already recieve many of the same benefits they claim Boeing gets. I think the biggest issue for them is that the project will have to be built more on solid business principles and less on euro pride. They have yet to have to make a bet-the-company decision.
 
FriendlySkies
Posts: 3540
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:57 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:00 am

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
Concorde was a brilliant engineering success but a commercial flop not selling a single aircraft (300 sales were forecasted!)

Just thought I'd mention it before someone else, there were a handful Concordes sold and delivered, many more sold but most orders were cancelled.
 
GDB
Posts: 12653
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:01 am

Only someone with a very limited knowledge of both aircraft, their history, the circumstances of the time, would think this.

As for the other subject, go speak to the Japanese government, you know, those paying for 787 wing construction.

Until the, I think the early 1970's, certainly through the 50's and 60's, the US had a 30% import tax on aircraft.

History and rhetoric not marrying up I'm afraid, enjoy your flamefest, don't let facts spoil it now.

P.S I know a good few industry insiders, who lurk here now and then, but have no intention of ever contributing, because of threads like this.

[Edited 2005-12-20 22:03:49]
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:04 am

I agree with many of the points brought up here, but I think the analogy between the A380 and concorde (outside of the nationalistic reasons) isn't particularlly valid.

I think a better analogy may be the L-1011. Lockheed simply got the market wrong for the plane, and some of the engineering challanges around the plane took a while to get ironed out. If you read the excellent book "Hard Landing" the carriers who adopted the L-1011 early were almost put out of business because of technical issues with the planes.

Another way to put is that smaller planes allow fragmentation to occur. When the A310, 757 and 767 were introduced they caused massive fragementation to occur that killed all of the 3-holers and put a sizable dent even in the formidable 747.

Airbus has set themselves up for a similar problem. The 777, 350 and 787 will allow for the same type of fragmentation across the pacific.

Simply put, I still do not think there is a sizable enough market for this plane to justify the investment that Airbus has made in it. I think you can see the fruits of this decision in the recent domination of the A340 by the 777 and the A330 and A350 by the 787.
 
Ken777
Posts: 9064
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:07 am

The 380 will do fine as long as the aviation market continues to grow. Its main risk is external, as we saw with the dot com bust, 9/11 and SARS.

I consider the 380 to be a work horse, moving a lot of people at a time. This is going to be interesting as the airlines are going to need to fill a lot of cheap seats as well as First and Business. That, however, is the airlines' job - not Airbus'.

Low season may well be a challenge and we might see airlines within an alliance working together to shift 380s and 747s around to take advantage of the changing seasons. (Remembering that winter down under is summer up north.)

The decision to go with the 380 was a bold one - just as the decision to go with the original 747 was. It's going to take time for the wisdom of that decision to be determined, but I think the long term outlook is a minimum of break even. In terms of profitability I think that the 747-8 will be ahead, simply because it has a significantly lower development cost. It's going to be interesting to see how both work out over time.

The 350 is going to need to stand on its own as Airbus is going to be faced with a need to deliver a 32E before it can deliver a 360 to replace the 350.
 
c680
Posts: 428
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 6:03 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:08 am

Whilst I agree with most of your post, if you are trying to draw a connection between Concorde and A380, I'm not sure I concur.

Concorde's issues were environmental (pollution, both noise and emissions) as well as poor economics (high fuel consumption per seat mile during a global petroleum market shortage)

A380's issues are access (modification of airport infrastructure to accommodate A380)

A380's problems can be overcome if there is both political will and funds available to do so.

Concorde could not change its pollution, noise, or high fuel burn.
My happy place is FL470 - what's yours?
 
BWIA 772
Posts: 1613
Joined: Sun May 12, 2002 2:33 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:12 am

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
The A380 has been a very bad mistake for Airbus - it put all it political and financial capital into the aircraft at the expense of the more lucrative 787/350 market. Even worse is that Airbus can no longer expect European politicians to give large subsidies to new models becuase of the fallout over the A350 fiasco.

I think that it is to early to come to that conclusion. The A380 is yet to enter service as well as the 787. Yes the Boeing 787 has pushed Airbus' hand with the A350 however that doesnt mean that the 350 is doomed. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/787family/programfacts.html

Also remeber that the 787/350 battler is the preshow interesting and fun to watch but none the less before IMHO the war of the 737/A320 replacement.

Regard
BWIA 772
Eagles Soar!
 
lehpron
Posts: 6846
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 3:42 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:15 am

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

That has yet to be determine, afterall the century began 5 years ago.

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
Concorde was a brilliant engineering success but a commercial flop not selling a single aircraft (300 sales were forecasted!)

16 commercial versions fly for revenue service. But the Concorde was a political toy, end of story. I do not consider that plane even worth the economic argument. It was built to triumph against the Americans for stealing their Jetage from the imfamous Comet, I suspect. The shear lack of sonic boom studies showed they didn't think it would be the downfall. Had the US not aided Isreal in the war with Egypt, the OPEC would not have placed an embargo on the west making fuel prices go to hell. It's all politics. IMO, Concorde, though a technological marvel, was built to support this nature. It really annoys me when people claim Concorde this or that from an economic or business perspective. I am certain others will claim the makers tried to make their case, what's the point?

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
The A380 is also a brilliant engineering success but is not selling very well.

Now, yes. Are you impatient with the rate of orders and options? Big grin

While I can interpret the lack of orders/options since the first 150 may show that nobody wants one, keep in mind the thing is still in testing, it hasn't even flown for revenue yet. I see a market for 800 (despite Airbus' claims for 1300) over the nest 30 years. Which comes out to an average of 26 per year. Since 150 orders/options have been made, it may be another 2 years before we see another order. It is by itself in the market place, don't expect it to sell like hotcakes.

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
The A380 like Concorde was conceived by politicians who saw it as a demonstration of European superiority over the US.

If that is your belief then say so, though I think your reasoning is way off. I honestly do not see this plane as a technological achievement, it is no different than any other aircraft, following all the same rules. There are bigger planes, there are bigger structures that have 'taken to the air'. Only those ignorant to what humans have been able to do are claiming otherwise. As for the business case, that is between the customers and the company. Weither we believe there is a market or not is irrelevant. All companies do trend work analysis, Airbus simply offered a product that few carriers now believe they need down the road. This is like basic Business and Economics, how is this hard to understand? Unless you do not want to believe, then I'll let it go.

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
Did not Chirac, Blair and Schroeder attend the first flight ceremonies?

They were invited, so what? What does that have to do with a company's actions or intentions?

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
The main selling difficulty with the A380 is that it needs improved airport facilities - only a few airports are willing make the necessary improvement.

Again, now yes. What makes you believe this will not change over the next 20+ years?

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
Another problem with high capacity aircraft is that whilst they have great economics if they are full - in the low season they fly half full hence negating the economic benefits. By using smaller aircraft you can reduce capacity in the low season by reducing the number of flights.

Hence the point of QF's ordering both 787 and A380.

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
Some people have argued that nearly 800 747 will need to be replaced over the decade. But I think these will be replaced by 777 and A340 (if they improve it!) because of the ability to offer more flexible capacity.

Pardon me, but, doesn't the capacity of the 747 make them unique? Why crowd an airport with planes that do not have as much capacity just to be "flexible"?

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
The A380 has been a very bad mistake for Airbus

You are assuming that because no one has ordered it in the past year or more. Dude this program has beena round for 5 years and it may not be retired or replaced for another 30 YEARS. Do you honestly believe nothing will happen in that time? Politics, Environmentalism, and fuel prices killed Concorde. Where is this claim of similarity with Concorde. And please state your beliefs.

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
it put all it political and financial capital into the aircraft at the expense of the more lucrative 787/350 market.

Lucrative? Oh yeah, A350 is selling well against 787...  irked  (I was using your logic while being sarcastic, btw)


I am not going to go into the government subsidy issues as I do not know enough to argue either way.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
kyair
Posts: 339
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2004 5:51 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:21 am

Quoting BWIA 772 (Reply 9):
the war of the 737/A320 replacement.

True, very true. THAT one will be like tanks at 20 paces, can't wait to see it develop over the next few years! "Airbus and Boeing, please report to the playing field in full pads, turf shoes and protective cup!"
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened - Dr. Seuss
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 4837
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:28 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 6):
When the A310, 757 and 767 were introduced they caused massive fragementation to occur that killed all of the 3-holers and put a sizable dent even in the formidable 747.

"A sizable dent"? Well, maybe, but the 747 is still the best-selling widebody ever by quite a margin. Seems that Boeing got it right when they gambled forty years ago. Who's to say that Airbus won't win too?
 
ltbewr
Posts: 12427
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:33 am

Concorde failed for many reasons. Those include: enviromental (limiting it's potential routes), lack of range (also limiting it's routes to the North America-Europe, instead of North America-Asia or Europe-Asia), high fuel usage (with those costs), operational costs, that it was a tempermental and high maintenance aircraft and along with so few made, it could never be parctical. Then it became a point of political posturing/pride by the UK and France in the 1970's until it's ultimite WFU after 9/11.
I would not say that the A380 will be comparable to the Concorde as a commercial failure. Weather it will make break even for it's investment by Airbus is the real issue. Several key airports already are and in the near future more will be ready to service the A380. You also have routes/airports that are almost always at very high load levels and have to turn away customers. With the A380, you will have more room on those flights. That will be especially true for flights between North America and LHR, other cities in Europe, and Asia as well as between Europe and Asia where their is limited slots at key airports and the only way to grow capacity is to use A380's.
 
Glom
Posts: 2051
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:38 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:44 am

The A380 doesn't cruise at mach 2, nor FL600. I don't see the connection.
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:00 am

Eugdog,

That your thread has survived this long is simply amazing...and can be attributed solely to your European identity. You may have had a shot as a Canadian but even that is questionable.

Frankly, I do agree with you to an extent but not completely. At its core, I think the A380 is a vanity project for Airbus and the EU eager to show up the United States at a game which the U.S. has dominanted for so long. The risk/return on the project is questionable and I have serious doubts about whether Airbus would have pursued the project but for the benefit of launch aid. In contrast, programs like the A320-series are inherently sound enough that they make sense with or without launch aid.

But I think the A380 is a far more practical and soberly conceived project than the Concorde. It is a bit more than a technological showpiece. There is a market for aircraft of such size that will continue to grow...(Just not entirely clear it is worth $12-$15 billion to get a piece of that market)
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:28 am

Quoting PM (Reply 12):

"A sizable dent"? Well, maybe, but the 747 is still the best-selling widebody ever by quite a margin. Seems that Boeing got it right when they gambled forty years ago. Who's to say that Airbus won't win too?

The conditions are completly different. When the 747 became popular it was partially because it was the only plane that _could_ fly the distance. If you look at the historical record, typically once a smaller plane can fly a longer route with a similar casm, that route almost always fragments.
 
lapa_saab340
Posts: 391
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2001 8:42 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:41 am

It was built to triumph against the Americans for stealing their Jetage from the imfamous Comet, I suspect

Do you seriously believe that believe that the money and time spent on development of Concorde (more than a decade!) was done to "get back at the Americans"? That both the French and British would spend such resources on development for a stupid political gesture?

Concorde is many times compared to Project Apollo (generally by Americans, in my own experience), in that they were both done for prestige purposes. I never agreed with this point of view. Apollo and the Moon landing were driven by purely political reasons...the advantages in technology that came with it were secondary benefits that were never the driving factor.

Concorde was developed with the aim of producing a viable SST, national prestige was a side benefit of that - and also the reason, in my view, for much of the criticism towards the airplane from this side of the ocean. That the plane didn't turn out an economic success can be attributed to many reasons, some which simply couldn't be forecasted back then (Arab oil embargo and subsequent rise in fuel prices being one). The fact that the plane was banned from flying the transatlantic routes it was designed for certainly did its share of damage to the program. I'm convinced that should the American SST had gone ahead, the "difficulties" experienced by Concorde to finally operate out of the USA (particularly New York) would not have been there.

Claims of national prestige as the reason for development of Concorde stem from national jealousy in my view (the fact that at the time of cancellation, Boeing had spent more on the 2707 project and had nothing to show but a mockup, while pre-production Concordes were already flying certainly doesn't make the American SST effort look good!). In hindsight, some people remark how wise the US Congress was to cancel funding for the SST...And of course, the Soviets must have remarked how wise it was to abandon their plans for such a wasteful mission as a Moon landing  Wink
 
keesje
Posts: 8864
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:43 am

More then $230 billion will be spend in the next 20 years on aircraft sized 747 and larger. A period in which air traffic will triple, congesting reach unprecedented levels and 800 747s will be de-activated.

According to Boeing that is, the Airbus forecast is more optimistic. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/pdf/cmo2005_OutlookReport.pdf

The A380 is experiencing "overwhelming" interest and has already secured more then 220 "commitments"  Wink
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mirrodie
Posts: 6789
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2000 3:33 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 8:14 am

for the original poster, please, bite your tongue.

Its a shame, but GDB has it right. WE'd probably have more valuable input from posters here if such threads didnt exist.
Forum moderator 2001-2010; He's a pedantic, pontificating, pretentious bastard, a belligerent old fart, a worthless st
 
MidnightMike
Posts: 2810
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 10:07 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 8:22 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 14):
The A380 doesn't cruise at mach 2, nor FL600. I don't see the connection.

He was talking about the economics and timing of both aircraft......  Smile
NO URLS in signature
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 8:42 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 18):
The A380 is experiencing "overwhelming" interest and has already secured more then 220 "commitments"


Gas Fire... Boom.

The A380 is not the Concorde, The 787 is not the Comet, and so far the A380 is not a success.

[Edited 2005-12-21 00:51:50]
 
AJRfromSYR
Posts: 439
Joined: Tue May 17, 2005 6:03 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 8:45 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 18):
The A380 is experiencing "overwhelming" interest and has already secured more then 220 "commitments"

Commitments don't count, the Concorde had 300.


Not to say the A380 won't be a very good profitable plane for Airbus because it probably will. But let's not build it up beyond what it is currently.
-AJR-
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 2474
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 9:05 am

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

In a word: No

No comparison between the two aircraft and their missions. One main difference is that the A380 was built for the masses, and if anything, will bring the cost of flying down. Concorde, OTOH, was for the ultra-wealthy from the beginning and never had a chance to be commercially sucessful. This of course is on top of all the other limitations cited above by others.
 
cairo
Posts: 889
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:41 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 9:12 am

A lot of determination about whether the A380 will go the way of the Concorde will depend on what plays out in terms of airport use in a few key markets.

A key theory behind the A380 is that airports are or will be too full to handle more movements, therefore the growth in passengers that will without a doubt arrive, will in theory only be handled via larger aircraft.

LHR is critical - in fact, if LHR were a completely un slot controlled airport with unlimited space, a tremendous amount of impetus for the A380 disappears. NRT is also very important for similar reasons.

If the other 3 or 4 airports in the London area start handling long range international traffic, its hard to believe that the A380 will be required to deal with the increase in passengers. The same is true elsewhere - the A380 has no market in the US because there is no slot controlled international airport now, nor is there likely to be anytime soon.

The A380 works if LHR continues to control long range international traffic and if likewise airports across the world don't expand or offer suitable alternative airports. If more airports appear or traffic can be handled by the current airport infrastructure, the A380 is limited in success at best.

I feel it will be a limited success - barely breaking even compared to its investment.

Cairo
 
474218
Posts: 4510
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:27 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 1:38 pm

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 4):
many more sold but most orders were cancelled.

Please explain? Which airlines paid for the Concord then cancelled?

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 6):
L-1011 early were almost put out of business because of technical issues with the planes.

Please explain? What technical problems the L-1011 had and which airlines almost went out of business because of the L-1011. TWA disappeared after parking their L-1011's, Eastern went out of business, but not because of the L-1011, Delta went bankrupt several years after parking the last L-1011, maybe they should have kept them. These were launch customers and the L-1011 didn't put any of them out of business.
 
magyar
Posts: 528
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2000 4:11 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:26 pm

Wait till the patient dies before starting the funeral.
I understand that some here wants to see this plane
belly up and cannot wait to start the celebration, but
the event has not yet happened (if it ever will).
So be patient! I certainly hope that the party will be
badly spoiled but who knows.
 
sllevin
Posts: 3312
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 1:57 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 3:05 pm

I prefer to think of the A380 more as the modern 747SP.

It will be dearly loved by the airlines who ordered it, and will make them a lot of money. On that basis, it will be a great success.

For Airbus, financially, I don't believe it will be a huge, runaway success. The market is moving away from it every day. Already, one of the airlines that ordered the A380 (QF) has ordered a large number of smaller, point to point machines, and is pushing both Boeing and Airbus for a viable 'hub buster.'

Historically, the A380 will end up being viewed as the right plane at the wrong time.

Steve
 
NoUFO
Posts: 7397
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2001 7:40 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 3:20 pm

I'm usually not one of those who are always quick saying that this or that has been discussed to dead, but sometimes we all would be better off if certain thread starters would make use of the search function.

I'd suggest to lock this thread and send Eugdog back to bed.
I support the right to arm bears
 
Alessandro
Posts: 4962
Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2001 3:13 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:01 pm

I don´t think so, A380 is more aiming at at cargo market as well as passenger,
the Concorde only aimed at passenger market.
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
pavlin
Posts: 391
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:34 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:46 pm

In my opinion A380 is going to be a great plane and a real sucesss. After all boeing did decide to launch 747-8, maybe someday iBoeing will launch even bigger plane. But until then a380 will rock
 
UALMMFlyer
Posts: 122
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2005 8:51 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:04 pm

IMHO, it is too earlier to tell the success and failure of A380. Let's give it a chance before any conclusion is made.

There have been several wide-body aircraft not selling well, but that does not mean they were failures.

L-1011 (250 sold)
MD-11 (200 sold)
DC-10 (446? sold)

All three did not sell as projected, but they have remained in services or converted into freighters.

A380 has incorporated new technologies and innovative designs. Airbus should be commended for making such a bold move in changing the commercial aviation landscape. I firmly believe there is a market for the A380, but the uncertainties are timing and performance.

I am looking forward to fly the A380 on one of the *A carriers once they enter service.  Smile
Treat others like you'd like to be treated!
 
Glareskin
Posts: 1002
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:35 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 8:26 pm

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 10):
That has yet to be determine, afterall the century began 5 years ago.

 checkmark 

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 31):
IMHO, it is too earlier to tell the success and failure of A380.

 checkmark 
Allthough it is fair to say that it is enjoying more success than Concorde allready. The 300 commitments for Concorde where not as secure as the current A380 orders.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 21):
so far the A380 is not a success.

Why not? Because it doesn't have the same salesfigures as the 787? Don't forget it's a VLA and it is an unprecedented capacity... About 150 orders before entering service doesn't sound too bad for the moment. As the comments of Lehpron and UALMMFyer suggest: let's just wait a little longer before judging the Giant a failure.
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 8:43 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 18):
The A380 is experiencing "overwhelming" interest and has already secured more then 220 "commitments"



Quoting AJRfromSYR (Reply 22):

Commitments don't count, the Concorde had 300.

At that rate, if the WhaleJet manages to convert commitments to deliveries at the same rate as the last pride-driven european airliner, then we can someday expect to see at least 20 WhaleJets flying. Of course, it's possible that WhaleJet commitments might turn into deliveries at an even better rate than the Concorde, but that remains to be seen.  duck 
 
YYZ4RADD
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2004 11:32 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 8:48 pm

Is it my imagination or so many people are crying foul over the A380....many are hoping it will fail and everytime someone makes a purchase for the a380, so many cry foul over that.

Realistically speaking, the world population is going up and a plane this size is needed, whether people like it or not. The 747 was the first in a series of large planes and the a380 is the next evolution.

GDB is right, I was looking for some industry views, not some idiot arm-chair views from people who dont even understand the industry properly.

Comparing concorde to the a380 cannot be done, there are many things different, so that is a non issue.

YYZ4ARADD
 
eugdog
Posts: 426
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2001 11:32 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 9:19 pm

I made the comparision between Concorde in the area of of Political, European and technical success vs comerical failure. It would be foolish to say that there is no simularities.

But the fallout from the A380 is the end of the bilateral agreement over subsidies. Airbus will have to exist on reduced government subsidies from now on.

I think I posted a message earlier year saying that Airbus must not ask for subsidy for the A350 as it will infuriate the Americans.

before the A350 Airbus and Boeing avoided direct competition in the next generation of long haul aircraft by with the A380 and the 787 respectively. As long as this was happening the issue of Airbus subsidies was not such a big issue. But when Airbus decided to launch a direct competitor to the 787 it was inevitable that there would trouble!!!

Look at the result - A350 had to be financed with no subsidies and the A380 has not sold very well at all. It is ironic that Boeing get a significant subsidies on the 787 (Gov of Japan and various state subsidies) yet the A350 will get none.

It is highly unlikely that the next generation or Airbus post A350 will get the same degree of subsidy.

BTW Concorde was given to the airlines for free!

Also some people take these discussion too personally and resort to insults - I think that drives away posters!
 
RichardPrice
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 5:12 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 9:26 pm

Quoting Eugdog (Reply 35):
BTW Concorde was given to the airlines for free!

Thats actually untrue. BA and AF paid for most of their airframes, and were given some others free or at a nominal charge. The Consortium didnt recover development costs, but both BA and AF were able to operate Concorde at a profitable level for most of their operational lives.

http://www.britishairways.com/concorde/faq.html#6
 
frequentflyer
Posts: 708
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 3:22 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 10:19 pm

Am not the biggest Airbus fan, however the futile nature of this initial post makes me wonder whether some people should at all be participating in here... brings the level of the conversation down, really.
Take off and live
 
col
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 2:11 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 11:42 pm

Orders for the 380 are at about 159.

At service entry the following are approx where some Boeing widebodies were:
747: 178
767: 112
777: 137
Airbus I cannot comment on, as I don't know how they stood with the 300/310/330/340.

With a year to go to service entry, I would say the order book is in a good position with the worlds most profitable airlines purchasing.
 
na
Posts: 9170
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Wed Dec 21, 2005 11:56 pm

Sorry, but I think this topic is ridiculous.
Before entry into service there have been more A380s ordered than the 773ER for example covered in 6 years! Would you call the 773 a failure?
 
Geo772
Posts: 439
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 11:40 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 12:06 am

The A380 is certainly an engineering marvel. A demostration of what can be acheived. I also think that it very much has its place within many airlines. There are certainly some routes that you can keep providing more and more capacity and they will not get saturated. However most routes are not like this.

Likewise the B787 is also an engineering marvel, totally new techniques of building an aircraft using a quite different design philosophy to previous generation aircraft. The promise of superb efficiency is a strong selling point but the idea of more direct point to point services can only be an advantage for the consumer.

I believe there is a place for both these aircraft in a modern longhaul fleet. I also reckon that the A350 will make an excellent successor to A340 and A330 fleets, although it doesn't yet look like the quantum jump in technology that the B787 represents.

None of these aircraft are like Concorde was. They all have mass market appeal, both for improving service levels but also economics. Concorde very much embraced technology and offered a service that was unlike any other but was not an economic aircraft either before or after the 1970's fuel crisis. These modern aircraft have all been designed when fuel is and is expected to remain enormously expensive and so have been built to weather the modern age of airline operations.
Flown on A300B4/600,A319/20/21,A332/3,A343,B727,B732/3/4/5/6/7/8,B741/2/4,B752/3,B762/3,B772/3,DC10,L1011-200,VC10,MD80,
 
Kangar
Posts: 362
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2000 8:11 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 12:16 am

For someone with 375 posts, I can't imagine how you've lasted this long. Your reasoning is completely spurious, and in short, the answer to the topic is no, the A380 bears about as much resemblance to the Concorde as it does to a hummingbird, in that all three demonstrably fly and land again, but from there on, the similarities start to tail off......Too tired to even bother debating the various points in the original post. Given that you're from the UK, I can only assume you one of the people who believe Tony Blair betrayed your country by giving back some of the UKs rebate in exchange for an overall EU spending review....
 
PlaneDane
Posts: 347
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 3:08 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 12:28 am

Quoting Col (Reply 38):
Orders for the 380 are at about 159.

At service entry the following are approx where some Boeing widebodies were:
747: 178
767: 112
777: 137
Airbus I cannot comment on, as I don't know how they stood with the 300/310/330/340.

With a year to go to service entry, I would say the order book is in a good position with the worlds most profitable airlines purchasing.

Yes, you could make this comparison and say that the A380 is in a good position. But then you would need to ignore what we have with the A380 and the present situation such as:

different existing and future airport facilities
different size of existing and potential markets
different eras in commercial aviation
different airlines
different reasons for buying
different financing of sales
different technologies
different sizes of development costs and funding
different expectations for future sales
different potential levels of performance promised
different politics
different trade policies
etc., etc.

Otherwise, as the A380 closes in on service entry next year, yes, we can compare the A380 service entry to those Boeing aircraft you mentioned...
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 12:31 am

Quoting KYAir (Reply 1):
The Concorde was limited to essentially one route - New York-Western Europe

Didn't Concorde also serve Washington IAD?
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
NumberTwelve
Posts: 1393
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 8:57 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 12:49 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 7):
The 380 will do fine as long as the aviation market continues to grow. Its main risk is external, as we saw with the dot com bust, 9/11 and SARS.

No doubt, the aviation market will grow - in a couple of years people will laugh about the idea that the 380 is too big.
I can remember the days when B introduced the 747 - Lufthansa had biggest problems to fill the planes in the 70's. ID 90 were no problem at all - heaps of free seats in the 747.
The "step" from a 747 to a 380 is not that big as some people here may tell us - and the boarding and de-boarding times only "take hours" when the airports still are asleep as with the 747. What a low standard if boarding is only possible via one door. Airports have to grow and play their part in the aviation history - they earn some money with all the fees, so they have to bring service too.
signature censored by admin - so check my profile
 
User avatar
ClassicLover
Posts: 3954
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 12:53 am

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
Concorde was a brilliant engineering success but a commercial flop not selling a single aircraft

You lost me with your first line. Not selling a single aircraft? My eyes must have been playing tricks on me when I saw British Airways and Air France Concorde's in the sky.

FYI, they bought 7 aircraft each. 5 for BA, 4 for AF, then the remaining aircraft were assigned to the respective carriers in exchange for them taking on all of the ongoing support costs that were usually the manufacturers responsibility.

Quoting Eugdog (Thread starter):
The A380 is also a brilliant engineering success but is not selling very well.

The plane costs a lot of money, and it's quite large - which is why you won't see many orders. There isn't a massive market for it. I think people are too used to seeing the massive order tally of 737s and A320s and thinking the success of all aircraft is measured like this. It's not.

Trent.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
MD80Nut
Posts: 972
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 6:43 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 1:05 am

I think it's way, way too early to be reaching any conclusions about the A380. The thing is still in flight testing and about a year or so from entering service. I believe the main reason orders have not increased past 150 is airlines are sitting back waiting to see how it performs once it's in revenue service.

I think there is a need for this aircraft, maybe not as many as Airbus thinks, but if it meets or gets close it's performance targets and performs well in service, they will sell many more than 150. Remember, it has no direct competitor. Let's wait and see.

Cheers, Ralph
Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
 
PlaneDane
Posts: 347
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 3:08 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 1:39 am

Quoting MD80Nut (Reply 46):
I believe the main reason orders have not increased past 150 is airlines are sitting back waiting to see how it performs once it's in revenue service.

Perhaps, MD80Nut.

But it seems to me that the airlines didn't show such hesitation to order when other aircraft models from both Airbus and Boeing were introduced. I doubt that the A380's performance isn't such a mystery now. There are people at Airbus who already have a very good idea where the numbers will come in at.

Remember, too, that this aircraft has been available for airlines to order for nearly 4 years now. And since the original business plan called for A380's to replace B744's on a one-to-one basis, shouldn't there be far more orders by now?

[Edited 2005-12-21 17:40:06]

[Edited 2005-12-21 17:42:40]
 
UAMAYBACH1239
Posts: 213
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2004 12:46 am

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 1:58 am

Quoting GDB (Reply 5):
P.S I know a good few industry insiders, who lurk here now and then, but have no intention of ever contributing, because of threads like this

Who cares!
 Cool

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 6):
I think a better analogy may be the L-1011. Lockheed simply got the market wrong for the plane, and some of the engineering challenges around

This is a much better example.
 Cool
I think one major region (Asia) should have been bagged by A before the launch of this plane. Unfortunately I think what's going on around the world with oil, among other things has some affect on airlines boards, and instead of thinking how many pax the can put on board they are worrying about how many empty seats will remain. Once a few carriers begin to operate them things will pick up.  Cool
a/c flown 737-222/322/522 757/747-1-2-4, 767-2-3, 777-2-3, A319-20, DC10-10-30, L1011-3-5, 727-222adv, MD85-90 flyourfri
 
FCKC
Posts: 1630
Joined: Sun Nov 21, 2004 9:39 pm

RE: Is The A380 The Concorde Of The 21 Century?

Thu Dec 22, 2005 2:27 am

Eugdog

This thread is a stupid joke !!!