Byrdluvs747
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At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 2:32 am

With the 787 and 748 programs underway, I'm wondering when Boeing could reasonably begin to apply the 787 technology to the 777?

Would it be after the 737 replacement or during?
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zvezda
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 2:40 am

Do you realize just how close in size the B777 and B787 are? The B787 will replace the B777-200ER at least. Someday it may replace other B777 family members.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 2:54 am

The technology employed in the 787 will supplant all aircraft in the Boeing linup eventually, but not yet. It needs further refinement. Therefore the 777 is safe for the moment, unless the -10 becomes reality.

Should that happen, it is only a matter of time until the 777 (and all other aluminum based airframes) becomes the next 767 in terms of obsolecence. Both companies (A & B) and all airlines know this. That is why both are already considering incorporating these new technologies into existing lines (747-8 and 340-derivatives for example) as a stop-gap measure until they develop the next generation of successive products.

It is therfore only a matter of time until the technology importation happens to the 777 family as a stop gap. I would give it only a couple of years until this happens.
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sphealey
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Proj

Fri Dec 23, 2005 3:23 am

Assuming the 787 composite technology works as described, the key will be the price of oil. Airlines can survive with current technology at the current price of oil, and probably somewhat higher. If oil increases in price by 2x or 3x, then fuel economy will overwhelm all other considerations and (if the world economic system still needs long-distance transportation) then every platform will be on the table for replacement with the lightest possible design.

sPh
 
UNDBoeingNut
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 4:06 am

You may not see a wealth of the technologies come over but you might see small ones here and there as they are proven in service. The lighter interiors, engine technologies especially the combustor, and maybe more composite parts for structure rather than the honeycomb they use now.


First Airliners post...been reading the forums for over 4 years and finally decided to join in.
AE
 
MidnightMike
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 4:10 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Thread starter):
With the 787 and 748 programs underway, I'm wondering when Boeing could reasonably begin to apply the 787 technology to the 777?

Would it be after the 737 replacement or during?

Going to be quite some time before the 777 gets modified, will probably be after the 737 project.

Amazing how Boeing is going to look in the future, after all their different aircraft, should be narrowed down to the 737, 787, 777, 747......
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AJRfromSYR
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 5:06 am

But the 10 wont have the cargo MTOW capacity of the 772 will it. Even if they up the MTOW the fuselage will be smaller and the cargo hold right?
-AJR-
 
TheSonntag
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 5:19 am

Problem with the 777ADV would be engines. The GE90 is rather new, as are the other engines in this size. Developing something new in this size will not happen now, although I guess we might see it some day. On the other hand, the 747-800, 787 and A350 all use almost the same size of engines, so it was easier to get new designs in this size...
 
zvezda
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 6:27 am

Quoting AJRfromSYR (Reply 6):
But the 10 wont have the cargo MTOW capacity of the 772 will it. Even if they up the MTOW the fuselage will be smaller and the cargo hold right?

MTOW is not a capacity.
 
11Bravo
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 7:36 am

The major determining factor that will dictate Boeing's decision process on whether or not to “NG” the B777-200ER will be what Airbus decides to do in this market sector. If Airbus decides, as I expect they will eventually, to build a new aircraft utilizing a composite fuselage in this size class, it would be a serious mistake for Boeing to answer with a derivative of the B777.

Composite construction has changed this industry in a fundamental way. The weight penalty of aluminum construction is just too much to overcome even with clever aerodynamic changes, exotic alloys, and new engines. I think we are seeing that dynamic play out with the B787 and the A350 right now.
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Ruscoe
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 7:48 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 7):
Problem with the 777ADV would be engines.

Boeing could leave the engine thrust as it is, and lighten the structure to achieve improvements in efficiency, but there is capacity to extract 140,000 lbs thrust from the GE90 without major redesign, I am told.

Ruscoe
 
B2707SST
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 7:50 am

I agree with most of the above posts. In the near term, the 787-10X will replace the 777-200ER and counter the threat from the A350-900. The 777-200LR and -300ER should do quite well for some years to come, as the A340-500 and -600 cannot match their performance and the "E" versions of those aircraft are a long way away (and the 777s will continue to make incremental improvements in the meantime). The 747-8 should establish its own niche and could sell a few hundred frames.

In the longer term, the 777-300ER, 747-8, and A380-800 ranges will be the territory of Y3, which will likely follow Y1 (the 737/757 replacement) with EIS in the 2018-2020 time frame (expect Y1 in 2012-2014). Further upgrades to the 787 series should allow the 787-10 to match or exceed the 777-200LR's performance on ULH routes. Barring some unforeseen marketplace changes, a 777ADV does not seem to fit in Boeing's future product lineup. In fact, the 777-200LR and -300ER essentially are the 777ADV, and are probably the last major developments of the line. I do think the 777F may remain in production for a long, long time, though.

--B2707SST
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BlueSky1976
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 7:58 am

I think that if there would ever be a 777NG, with the way things at Boeing are developing currently, it would most likely be a 777-300ER and 777-200LR with composite wings and empennage - similar to what Airbus is doing with A350 Family. With all the 787-10X talk 777-200ER will be gone within next 3 years as far as orders go*. 777-200LR/-300ER still have potential if Boeing decides to implement the same improvements they just did with 747-8. This way the 777NG update would create a nice stop-gap product assortment with most sales going to 777-300ER and -200LR being a tie-in product for the C-Market routes. I truly believe that 777-200LR will eventually crack the SYD-LHR range barrier, once 787 technologies are adopted to it. This way Boeing would have a competitive product range in URL 300 seater and LR 350 - 450 market for another 10 years or so until Y3 morphs into something more solid than a design study.

*) I hate to be saying it, but looks like that's the shape of things to come. My money is on EK being a launch customer for 787-10 within next 3 - 6 months.
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AJRfromSYR
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 8:32 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 8):
MTOW is not a capacity.

MTOW got between cargo and capacity. My sentence looked like it went through a word scramble before posting let me do this again.


The 78-10 wont have the cargo capacity of the 772 because of weight issues and a smaller fuselage - right?
-AJR-
 
Ken777
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 9:08 am

Future 777 developments are going to be related to the sales war between A & B. Right now I think that B is in the lead with the 787 and can add significant pressure on A with Y1.

While Y1 might have been planned for around 2012 I believe that the pressure of fuel costs will force B to move that forward, which is going to be a difficult challenge for A. B is simply getting too much technology transfer from the 787 program for A to catch easily.

Personally I see the Y1 program starting soon after the first 787 flight. Airlines like WN are going to push hard and, by that time, B will be ready to add the pressure onto A.

After the Y1 is flying there will be time to look at Y3. By then the operational performance of the 380 will be known, allowing B to ensure they design something that will hit the 380 in the pocket book. It's going to be fun to watch.
 
BG777300ER
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 2:59 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 10):
Boeing could leave the engine thrust as it is, and lighten the structure to achieve improvements in efficiency, but there is capacity to extract 140,000 lbs thrust from the GE90 without major redesign, I am told.

Wow, I didn't know that. Can anyone confirm this?
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iwok
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 3:09 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 10):

Boeing could leave the engine thrust as it is, and lighten the structure to achieve improvements in efficiency, but there is capacity to extract 140,000 lbs thrust from the GE90 without major redesign, I am told.

Ruscoe

I think the issue is: part of the 787 advantage is the increased efficiency of the engines and bleedless design. Wouldn't it take quite some time to do the same upgrades to the GE90?

iwok
 
whitehatter
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 3:11 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Thread starter):
With the 787 and 748 programs underway, I'm wondering when Boeing could reasonably begin to apply the 787 technology to the 777?

after they fix the reliability problems with the existing 773ER.

Ask Emirates. They just LOVE how theirs keep breaking down...and must now be considering whether their outstanding orders are a good idea.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
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glideslope
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 9:59 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 14):
Future 777 developments are going to be related to the sales war between A & B. Right now I think that B is in the lead with the 787 and can add significant pressure on A with Y1.

While Y1 might have been planned for around 2012 I believe that the pressure of fuel costs will force B to move that forward, which is going to be a difficult challenge for A. B is simply getting too much technology transfer from the 787 program for A to catch easily.

Personally I see the Y1 program starting soon after the first 787 flight. Airlines like WN are going to push hard and, by that time, B will be ready to add the pressure onto A.

After the Y1 is flying there will be time to look at Y3. By then the operational performance of the 380 will be known, allowing B to ensure they design something that will hit the 380 in the pocket book. It's going to be fun to watch.

Could not agree more. Thats a nice Crystal Ball you have there. WN is already pushing VERY hard.  Smile  

[Edited 2005-12-23 14:00:12]
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zvezda
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Fri Dec 23, 2005 10:17 pm

Quoting AJRfromSYR (Reply 13):


The 78-10 wont have the cargo capacity of the 772 because of weight issues and a smaller fuselage - right?

In terms of weight, the B787-10X will have about the same cargo capacity as the B777-200ER. In terms of volume, the B787-10X will carry far more than the B777-200ER.

Quoting BG777300ER (Reply 15):
Wow, I didn't know that. Can anyone confirm this?

The GE-90 has been tested on the ground up to 127,900 lbs of thrust. Certification up to 125,000 lbs should be straight-forward. 140,000 lbs would require some serious work. Anyway, by the time Y3 is developed, the GE-90 will be old. It will be time to develop new engines.
 
malmoaviation
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Sat Dec 24, 2005 12:22 am

When there are five types of 777 excluding ER and LR it will start, I think.  Wink
 
TK
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Sat Dec 24, 2005 2:38 am

Regarding the 777-advance. Lets have a look at how much further the airframe can grow. In this case we are clearing assuming the following
a. Linier scaling of the aircraft.
b. A future 777-extra long will use the same wing as the 777-200LR/300ER.

Boeing stated tri-class capacity for 777-300 LR = 368
Boeing stated tri-class capacity for 747-400 = 416

Current length = 73.9 M
Current empty weight = 370,000 Pounds.

A further stretch of the 777 series to 80M (6.1M increase, Assumes 80m x 80m airport box limitation)
Seating capacity increase will be ~412 pax.
Assuming linier scaling.
New OEW will be: 400,500 pounds (B744ER is 406,000)
Assuming no further increases of MZFW over the 777-300LR. Payload will drop to 123,000lb. 404 pax = 80800 lb (200lb per pax).
Assuming there are is not additional drag penalties related to the extra length.
It will give a max range with full pax load to ~6700NM in still air conditions.
Lets assume that there is a 200NM diversion requirement, + additional 300NM for headwinds. Real range will be around ~6200NM

Who would want to buy such a 747-400 sized B777. Well the current big B-744 operators. Such as BA,JAL,SQ,OF,CX. Would it fit their missions?
For QF, can it do SYD=>LAX (6507NM) NO
For BA, can it do LHR=> SIN (5879NM) OK
For JAL, can it do NRT=>JFK (5861NM) OK
For SQ, can it do SIN=>LAX (7621NM) NO (but even A380 can't do it)
For CX, can it do HKG=>LAX (6309NM) NO

Conclusion ? Boeing will definately need to up. The MTOW, the MZFW by at least 30,000 to 50,000 pounds to make such a aircraft possible. Plus, alot of these airlines have significant cargo business and would like to be able to load some stuff under the floors of their Transpacific jets.

This means.
a.) Strengthened Airframe (more materials needed for re-enforcement)
b.) More powerful engines
c.) New Landing gear (more material for stronger performance)
d.) All this mean even more weight.
e.) Assuming that the new plane will need a MTOW of 807,000lb. Wing loading will increase to 171lb/sqft. Thats very high and unlikely, boeing will have to increase the wing area. (looks like we will need a new wing)

So, the key question is. Will a new 777 offer the same or better performance than a enhanced 747-400ER. A 744ER can carry its 416 pax 7750NM...hmm,, looks like a new super stretch 777 isn't quite as capable as the existing 744ER and thats why Boeing decided to refresh its 747 with the 747-8 instead of making a new super sized 777.

So, and adavance 777, it probably won't be able to replace the 744.
So what about a even more efficent one. Well, the big question is, Airbus currently have nothing in their pipeline that can match the curret 777 lines so there is no need for a enhanced version yet. The A330 series will not scale well to 777-300 sizes.

[Edited 2005-12-23 18:46:28]
 
UNDBoeingNut
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Sat Dec 24, 2005 2:47 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 17):

"We have had very positive results with the Boeing 777s already in our fleet," said Emirates Chairman H.H. Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum. "These new airplanes are perfectly suited to our business model for continued growth, both in cargo and passenger traffic, while maintaining the high level of comfort and exceptional service our passengers expect." http://www.aeroknow.com/industrynews.htm

I don't know about you, but it sounds like they like them very much...
AE
 
zvezda
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Proj

Sat Dec 24, 2005 2:54 am

Quoting TK (Reply 21):
Regarding the 777-advance. Lets have a look at how much further the airframe can grow. In this case we are clearing assuming the following
a. Linier scaling of the aircraft.
b. A future 777-extra long will use the same wing as the 777-200LR/300ER.

Actually, I think the discussion was not about the B777-400X, but rather about improving the efficiency of the B777-200LR and B777-300ER by means of weight reduction, lower SFC, and aerodynamic tweaks.

I think the last hopes for a B777-400X ended with the formal launch of the B747-8.
 
akelley728
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RE: At What Point Could Boeing Start A 777Adv Project?

Sat Dec 24, 2005 2:07 pm

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 17):
after they fix the reliability problems with the existing 773ER.

Ask Emirates. They just LOVE how theirs keep breaking down...and must now be considering whether their outstanding orders are a good idea.

Well, EK must think their outstanding orders are okay since they just ordered 24 777-300ER (plus 10 777-200LR and 8 777LRF) last month at the Dubai airshow on top of the 26 777-300ers they ordered back in 2003.
 Yeah sure  Yeah sure

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