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clickhappy
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Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 3:07 am

Has anyone heard any more about the 100 A320's that IndiGo 'ordered' back in June?

They announced at the time of the order they would start flying between Nov 2005 - February 2006, and yet I don't think there has been any news. I would assume they would have planes in production and be doing route proving by now?

Also, did Airbus count this 100 plane order in their 2005 totals, or was it (more than likely) never finalized.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 3:14 am

The deal was finalized and signed in November: 70 A320s and 30 A321s.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 3:16 am

did they start ops with other jets?
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 3:26 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Thread starter):
They announced at the time of the order they would start flying between Nov 2005 - February 2006, and yet I don't think there has been any news. I would assume they would have planes in production and be doing route proving by now?

Don't know much about Indigo other than they have some high-caliber executives who held senior positions at USAirways, United, and Air France.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 3:31 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 3):
high-caliber executives

Including fomer CEO of US airways as a major investor.

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 1):
70 A320s and 30 A321s

Very impressive order
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clickhappy
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 4:19 am

so, they are on track for launch by mid-Feb? Anyone have a picture of their livery?
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 12:03 pm

"Has anyone heard any more about the 100 A320's that IndiGo 'ordered' back in June?"

Rakesh Gangwal strikes again...
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 12:18 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 1):
The deal was finalized and signed in November: 70 A320s and 30 A321s.

are you sure about this? link?
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 12:24 pm

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 7):
Quoting Scorpio (Reply 1):
The deal was finalized and signed in November: 70 A320s and 30 A321s.

are you sure about this? link?

Most definately is the answer to that question. Here is a link

http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/orders_and_deliveries/#

Open the spreadsheet and look at the orders tab and you'll see it listed on November 18 2005.

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dan2002
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 1:02 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 4):
Including fomer CEO of US airways as a major investor.

We all see how well US was doing :P

Dan
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 1:03 pm

When Rakesh Gangwal was CEO of US, they were amongst the most profitable airlines out there.

N
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 1:47 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 10):
When Rakesh Gangwal was CEO of US, they were amongst the most profitable airlines out there.

Oops. It was a tongue in cheek (joke, whatever) statement anyways, hence the :P.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:23 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
did they start ops with other jets?

No - they've not started ops in India so far. I'm actually surprised to hear that they went ahead and confirmed the order for 70+30. All the best to them!

The last (rumours) were that they were been given a tough time by the Govt, since there's really no parking space for a 100 aircraft at the major metro airports. Their main choice would have been to park at non-metros, and even that would be a stretch to park more than a few. Is the delivery schedule for these 100 published anywhere? My guess is that a lot of the aircraft are a long way away from delivery.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:30 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 10):
When Rakesh Gangwal was CEO of US, they were amongst the most profitable airlines out there.

I'd be a bit happier if you had included Stephen Wolf in that.

I know he and Rakesh Gangwal were a double act (Wolf-gang) but It was Stephen Wolf who had turned US around - with Gangwal as COO.

Gangwal became CEO in 1998 and the airline made $538 million, but obviously Wolf had sewn the seed.

After that, it was all down hill again, with big losses by 2000 and huge losses by 2001, when Gangwal left.

cheers

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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 4:30 pm

The other investor in the project - the majority investor is Interglobe Enterprises - A Delhi registered and Gurgaon HQed Travel Agency, Hotel Operator and GSA (who operate Galileo in India) which is owned by a character known as Rahul Bhatia. While they make money it is nowehere in the league of the at least $ 5 billion they will need to raise to finance the planes and start operations. That said, if you notice employment supplements such as Times of India's Ascent on Wednesday you will notice that they (along with the Wadia's GoAir) are taking out ads for ground staff, cabin crew and pilots. I don't know where they will raise the moolah for the airline, banks in India are getting wary of financing wild start-ups, and though the economy is awash in cash, Indigo's business model is nothing unique.
As for the parking bay shortage, at the rate planes are being added to the Indian skyline, we'll have to start parking planes in Pakistan and Nepal.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 4:38 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Thread starter):
Also, did Airbus count this 100 plane order in their 2005 totals, or was it (more than likely) never finalized.

Why not simply check on Airbus.com? You would have easily found this:
http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/orders_and_deliveries/#

Talking about vaporware orders... nothing can beat Primaris  Wink
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 4:52 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 15):
Talking about vaporware orders... nothing can beat Primaris

And just where do you find Primaris listed by Boeing as a firm order? I don't see it on the Orders & Deliveries page.

100 does seem rather excessive for a start-up in India. It exposes Airbus to a lot of risk. They perhaps should have started with 20 firm, and 80 options, since the customer has no track record.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 5:22 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 16):
They perhaps should have started with 20 firm, and 80 options

I don't think manufacturers will ever allow more options than firm orders.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 5:28 pm

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 17):
I don't think manufacturers will ever allow more options than firm orders.

Why not? It depends on the price of the option they want to pay.

IIRC, KLM ordererd 6 A330-200s and took options on 18.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 5:50 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 16):
And just where do you find Primaris listed by Boeing as a firm order?

You can't, hence it is vaporware.

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 17):
I don't think manufacturers will ever allow more options than firm orders.

Wasn't Northwest's 787 order for 18 plus 50 options, or were those purchase rights or something? Also the recent Cathay Pacific order was for 12 777s and 20 options.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 5:56 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 13):
I'd be a bit happier if you had included Stephen Wolf in that.

I don't disagree... I was just pointing out the specific incidence in time.

N
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 6:53 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 10):
When Rakesh Gangwal was CEO of US, they were amongst the most profitable airlines out there.

Actually, he was CEO as the wheels were coming off the bus. US Airways lost money in 2000 -- a year in which Delta posted an enormous operating profit of over $1.6 billion and Southwest made $1 billion as well. In 1999, US's operating profit of $136 million lagged most of their peers; Continental's was over 350% larger at $615 million while Southwest's was nearly 500% higher at $782 million.

While US Airways posted healthy profits during the mid-1990's, the Wolf-Gangwal leadership team failed to effectively prepare US Airways for a foreseeable wave of LCC competition across the company's network. September 11 only hastened the day of reckoning, especially at US since management had spent its profits on stock buybacks (to pump up the share price) rather than on reducing debt. The UAL merger (or merger with any larger carrier) was really the only exit strategy possible.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:24 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Thread starter):
Has anyone heard any more about the 100 A320's that IndiGo 'ordered' back in June?

You really should do some checking before starting you next round of Airbus bashing!

Quoting Nimish (Reply 12):
since there's really no parking space for a 100 aircraft at the major metro airports.

It's not like they're all going to be delivered next week is it?

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 16):
And just where do you find Primaris listed by Boeing as a firm order? I don't see it on the Orders & Deliveries page.

Exactly the point!  wink 

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 16):
It exposes Airbus to a lot of risk.

How exactly? If Indigo flourishes they're an Airbus customer, if they fail it costs Airbus nothing (they'll probably even have planes that can be delivered to other customers more quickly). Hardly a lose-lose situation!  wink 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:46 pm

http://www.blonnet.com/2005/11/23/stories/2005112303300900.htm

PRIVATE low cost carrier Indigo Airlines on Tuesday said it might launch operations by February next year by taking aircraft on lease.

"The induction of aircraft will start from July next year but we are exploring if we want to accelerate the launch of the airline to February by doing short-term leases of aircraft. We hope to announce the launch date in 6-8 weeks. It could be as early as February or March and no later than July next year," Mr Rahul Bhatia, Managing Director of Interglobe Enterprises Ltd, said.

The airline is being jointly promoted by Mr Rakesh Gangwal and Interglobe Enterprises.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 8:45 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 16):
100 does seem rather excessive for a start-up in India. It exposes Airbus to a lot of risk

No guts no glory. Just like when JetBlue ordered 100 a320's. It was a big risk for aribus, but it turned out ok (so far)

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 1):
The deal was finalized and signed in November: 70 A320s and 30 A321s.

They have even already selected the IAE engine for their aircraft. Definitely not vaporware. Especially with the backing of InterGlobe, and people who know the industry.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 9:37 pm

I thought this was the A320s titles Go-Air, which have been flying around for a couple of months now? I saw VT-WAZ in BOM and apparently they have a VT-WAY now as well, A320s. The tails are different colours apparently.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 9:43 pm

Quoting Kappel (Reply 24):
Especially with the backing of InterGlobe, and people who know the industry.

Lets not let any facts ruin a 'lets put airbus down' story.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 9:53 pm

Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 25):
I thought this was the A320s titles Go-Air

Go Air is again a different LCC startup in India.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 26):
Lets not let any facts ruin a 'lets put airbus down' story.

With my albeit limited knowledge of the industry I think that after Jet and Deccan(who are already established), Kingfisher and IndiGO have the best chance of surviving with their backing. again, just my humble opinion.

[Edited 2006-01-02 13:53:43]
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 10:11 pm

Quoting Kappel (Reply 27):
Kingfisher and IndiGO have the best chance of surviving with their backing

This thread was about clickhappys belief that airbus had a vaporware order, which suited his pro boeing monologue. The order is now confirmed, and Indigo has enough backing (financial, and political) to carry the launch through.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 11:10 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 22):
t's not like they're all going to be delivered next week is it?


I wish you'd have read my post a bit more carefully. The very next line after the one you quoted was "My guess is that a lot of the aircraft are a long way away from delivery.", by which I meant exactly what you're trying to point out.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 11:30 pm

Quoting Nimish (Reply 29):
I wish you'd have read my post a bit more carefully. The very next line after the one you quoted was "My guess is that a lot of the aircraft are a long way away from delivery.", by which I meant exactly what you're trying to point out.

I posted just a bit too quickly - wasn't intended as a criticism of your post. But basically, we're agreeing.  smile 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Mon Jan 02, 2006 11:41 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 28):
Indigo has enough backing (financial, and political) to carry the launch through.

Um, if you read my earlier post, you will see that the political and financial aspects aren't exactly clear.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:45 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 22):
How exactly? If Indigo flourishes they're an Airbus customer, if they fail it costs Airbus nothing (they'll probably even have planes that can be delivered to other customers more quickly). Hardly a lose-lose situation!

I don't follow your reasoning. You seem to imply that Airbus can't lose in this situation, whereas I would say they have a lot to lose if the venture fails, namely huge cancellations.

If you look at Indigo's competitors - Air India Express, Indian, Deccan, Jet Airways and Spice Jet, to name a few, they started out small and grew. It just seems more prudent in such a risky market.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:07 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 32):
You seem to imply that Airbus can't lose in this situation, whereas I would say they have a lot to lose if the venture fails, namely huge cancellations.

Let's say Indigo takes delivery of their first 10 A320s, then dies. At that point Airbus loses the remaining 90 orders from Indigo, but has production line slots available (for the best selling plane in the World) that can then be offered to existing or new customers earlier than expected. Yes Airbus loses the immediate income from those sales to Indigo, but they can sell the planes again. It's not like nobody else in the World wants to buy A320s! wink 

Given the size of the current A320 backlog it's not exactly a terrible problem. Now, if Indigo's order was 60-70% of the whole A320 backlog, then I would agree about the risk. But it's not.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:11 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 33):
(for the best selling plane in the World)

what is your source for that.
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dhefty
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:20 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 33):
Given the size of the current A320 backlog it's not exactly a terrible problem. Now, if Indigo's order was 60-70% of the whole A320 backlog, then I would agree about the risk. But it's not.

Well, by your line of reckoning, Boeing should list 100 to Jet, 100 to Spice and any other startup that comes along, since the 737 is an equally hot product with a huge backlog. Boeing must see that there is a fair amount of risk or they would do the same.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:26 am

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 17):

I don't think manufacturers will ever allow more options than firm orders.

Its rare and has risk. For an airline like KLM to get more options is more likely than a start up. It also depends on how the options are set up. (Payment schedule would be key.)

It seems that all of the large start up LCC's are doing well. They seem to have experience senior staff, good financial backing, and "mind share" due to their explosive growth.

India is very underserved already. As all of those newly hired employees start to travel, I have no doubt their air travel market is set to grow explosively. Does this mean Indigo is a sure fire success? Of course not.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 32):

If you look at Indigo's competitors - Air India Express, Indian, Deccan, Jet Airways and Spice Jet, to name a few, they started out small and grew. It just seems more prudent in such a risky market.

To a degree, true. But look at the market in the US. B6 is now larger than Airtran, Spirit, or F9 and arguably has easier access to capital now in part due to their fast growth. While DH could be the counter example, I would argue they picked the wrong equipment, etc.

Speaking of DH, could Indigo pick up a few A319's to "jump start" their fleet?  spin 

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N79969
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:45 am

Wolf and Gangwal are competent managers. But I think they are ultimately shakedown artists. Considering the services they provided, the compensation they demanded and received was utterly outrageous.

When Wolf and Gangwal ran USAirways the entire airline industry was profitable. The underlying economy was strong and people were willing to fork over $1,500-$2000 for a coach class domestic ticket while on business during that. USAirways fundamentally bad cost structure was insulated from reality during that time.

However India is a completely different market. I think Gangwal's experience and expertise will prove very useful to this new airline.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:51 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Thread starter):
Has anyone heard any more about the 100 A320's that IndiGo 'ordered' back in June?

Answer is:-

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 8):
Open the spreadsheet and look at the orders tab and you'll see it listed on November 18 2005.



Quoting BestWestern (Reply 23):
The induction of aircraft will start from July next year but we are exploring if we want to accelerate the launch of the airline to February by doing short-term leases of aircraft



Quoting Kappel (Reply 24):
They have even already selected the IAE engine for their aircraft

All of this information was contained in the FI article last month which covered the firming of the order. IAE were also quoted as saying they were "extremely impressed" with the Indigo Business Case.

A little research goes a long way.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:51 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 35):
Boeing must see that there is a fair amount of risk or they would do the same.

Well it takes two to tango - if Spice wanted to buy 100 737s are you saying Boeing wouldn't sell to them because it was too risky? How about 20 737s and 20 787s for Primaris? If Boeing "won't sell" to a certain airline, you'd have to ask them why not!

Quoting APFPilot1985 (Reply 34):
what is your source for that.

Simply the comparison of sales totals. What else would it be?  wink 
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dhefty
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:54 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 37):
Wolf and Gangwal are competent managers. But I think they are ultimately shakedown artists



Quoting N79969 (Reply 37):
I think Gangwal's experience and expertise will prove very useful

So shakedown artists are very useful? Hmmmm.....

Airbus now has $4 Billion on the order books for the "shakedown artists".
 
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Stitch
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:57 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 16):
100 does seem rather excessive for a start-up in India. It exposes Airbus to a lot of risk. They perhaps should have started with 20 firm, and 80 options, since the customer has no track record.

If a customer is willing to put delivery slot deposits down on 100 aircraft, who is Airbus or Boeing to tell them to shove off?

The customer has to put down a significant deposit before either Boeing or Airbus will start building the frame. So if IndiGo's finances are tenuous, they won't be able to make the deposit and Airbus won't start building the planes.

And Boeing and Airbus may even have (or require) some type of "insurance policy" once construction of the frame begins just in case a carrier makes the initial deposit and makes the construction deposit, but can't make the delivery deposit.

By the time the frame begins, at least 25% of the plane is paid for and then I believe additional payments are due regularly as the plane is being built so long before they're fitting out the interior and preparing the plane for paint, which is when the manufacturer is "stuck", it's well over half-paid for (probably close to 75%).

So by that time, IndiGo either has made all the necessary payments and is in position to complete them and take delivery or they've liquidated and Airbus has moved up other slots and will outfit and paint them to the new customer's requirements.
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:09 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 39):
Simply the comparison of sales totals. What else would it be?

A documented un-biased source? Or is that too much to ask?
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:11 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 37):
When Wolf and Gangwal ran USAirways the entire airline industry was profitable. The underlying economy was strong and people were willing to fork over $1,500-$2000 for a coach class domestic ticket while on business during that. USAirways fundamentally bad cost structure was insulated from reality during that time.

 checkmark 

There was something fundamentally wrong with the US Air business model that led it into Chapter 11 twice in a very short period of time. Prior management has responsibility for that. It will be interesting to see how former US Air execs that have ended up in India perform for their respective airlines.
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:18 am

Quoting APFPilot1985 (Reply 42):
A documented un-biased source? Or is that too much to ask?

www.boeing.com
www.airbus.com
 
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:21 am

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 44):
www.boeing.com
www.airbus.com

oh ok, thanks
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/737...amily/news/2005/q4/051221a_nr.html
"total orders for the all-time, best-selling 737 surpassed the 6,000 mark."

Compared to 2584 for the A320 seems like someone was a bit off eh?
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Scorpio
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:28 am

Quoting APFPilot1985 (Reply 45):
Compared to 2584 for the A320 seems like someone was a bit off eh?

You're actually going to start this crap here? But oh well...

Look at the sales figures for the last, say, five years, and tell me which one is selling the most (remember he said 'selling', as in now, not 'of all time'). Oh and your Airbus number is about 1000 off.

I think that settles it. Unless you want to start making this into a semantics contest, in which case I suggest you start your own thread, as this is off-topic here.
 
APFPilot1985
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:36 am

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 46):
Look at the sales figures for the last, say, five years, and tell me which one is selling the most (remember he said 'selling', as in now, not 'of all time'). Oh and your Airbus number is about 1000 off.

My airbus number is taken right from their site. If you want to arbitrarily pick terms then go ahead and do it. But to say the best selling could go either way...
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ual747-600
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:51 am

Does anyone else recall an interview with the Indigo CEO right after the order was placed saying how they originally only planned on ordering 20??

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Scorpio
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RE: Vaporware Order - 100 A320's For IndiGo

Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:55 am

Quoting APFPilot1985 (Reply 47):
My airbus number is taken right from their site.

Sure, but it's the wrong number: it's the number of aircraft in operation today. The number of orders (end of November) is 3914. Your Boeing number is the number of orders. Slight difference.

Quoting APFPilot1985 (Reply 47):
If you want to arbitrarily pick terms then go ahead and do it. But to say the best selling could go either way...

Considering he was talking in reference to how Airbus is doing NOW in reference to A320 orders and the risk with current backlogs, he was absolutely correct in what he said: the A32X has been consistently outselling the 737 in recent years.

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