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Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:54 pm

Now that Emirates is pushing Boeing into building the B787-10, I have been wondering what would be the probability of Airbus doing a stretch of the A350-900.

An eventual A350-1000 may fit well between the B777-200 and B777-300. While at the same time offering greater economics.

Would we see a new wing to support the stretch or would the current wing be sufficient for such a stretch? What other changes should we expect from such a derivative? Engines, Landing Gear?

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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:59 pm

Airbus should dump the A346E proposal completly. I cant see why The A346 wings cant be adopted onto a streched A350 body with GE90 or similar engines. Im surprised this possible aircraft has not been discussed much before.
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 10:02 pm

Interesting. Are you imagining something with the wings, engines and systems of an A350 but the body of, say, an A346? Or maybe not quite that long? Could the GEnx and Trent 1700 lift such a plane? What kind of range would it have?

But do Airbus really need to stretch the A350 yet? I haven't memorised all the numbers but - correct me if I'm wrong - I was rather under the impression that the 787-10 was in part a response to the existing A350-900 which was closer to EK's requirements than the 787-9. Would the 787-10 match the A359 in capacity or leap-frog it?

And, while we're at it, doesn't this just reveal again the unnecessary clumsiness of starting with -8s and -9s or -800s and -900s? They leave themselves with nowhere to go but into four figures which, to my traditionalist mind, looks ugly. (Minor rant. Ignore it.)
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 10:27 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
Interesting. Are you imagining something with the wings, engines and systems of an A350 but the body of, say, an A346? Or maybe not quite that long? Could the GEnx and Trent 1700 lift such a plane? What kind of range would it have?

I think the weight savings offered by the A350s materials could be enough to make an 'A346 sized' A350 with GE90 or equiviant engines possible. Im not sure that the GENX could be developed to lift something that big, perhaps sombody with broad knowledge could give us an insight to this.

[Edited 2006-01-04 14:28:06]
 
mohamed
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 11:10 pm

To make it short improbably.
The current wing is already to it's limits . I could guess they may be able to stretch it a further 3m maximum . Notice also a noticable range penalty then. If u mean one A346 style one , Airbus could build one using modified A346 wings. Wouldn't be to problematic but with one major problem. Engines !
Such a plane would need 773ER style engines with about 110K or 115K pounds. Airbus won't use the GE simply because it is not a RR. It also will probably not have enough space below the wing. RR building such engines is also unlikely -> RR proposed such ones for the 773ER but they got put down. Such ones would need major work and the aircraft just cannot get the development back , the market is small and already filled largely. The A346 E would be way better.
A346E is an A346 with A350 fuselage , nose , similar tail and GENX/Trent 1000 engines. Add to this modified gears and slightly modified wings using more composites , AluLi and A350 winglets and you have got probably roughly 15%lower fuel burn over current A346 + more payload at same MTOW (380t) and more range. That is 7 better then 773ER . The latter cannot improve much more without major work A350 style. Even just modifying the engines cannot get more then a few percent , because the current engines already have much GENX technology in it. Add to that lower trip costs (excluding fuel), lower purchase price and more range for the A346E .
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 11:11 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
But do Airbus really need to stretch the A350 yet? I haven't memorised all the numbers but - correct me if I'm wrong - I was rather under the impression that the 787-10 was in part a response to the existing A350-900 which was closer to EK's requirements than the 787-9. Would the 787-10 match the A359 in capacity or leap-frog it?

In a minute someone will come along and scream about cabin floor spaces of the 787 and A350, and state how similar the 788 is to the A358 and 789 to the A359. However i'd be more interested in seeing the cabin lengths, because for most airlines the seating acoss will be the same, despite the 787 having a wider cabin.
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 11:21 pm

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 4):
Airbus won't use the GE simply because it is not a RR. ... RR building such engines is also unlikely -> RR proposed such ones for the 773ER but they got put down.

What do Airbus have against GE? They have no trouble with GE on the A350.  confused 

And what makes you think Airbus are so pro-RR? They gave GE a free run at the A345/A346. They only turned to RR and PW when GE chose not to continue.

Yes, RR were working on a big Trent 800 for 777 developments and the basic Trent design can grow well above 100,000lbs. GE got the nod from Boeing but RR could still do such an engine for a bigger A350/346 hybrid if asked.
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 11:35 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
What do Airbus have against GE? They have no trouble with GE on the A350. confused

Airbus have nothing against GE , but it for example offers the A345/6 only with RR. RR have got an exclusive deal from Airbus. Just like Boeing offers 772LR/773ER and the 747-8 only with GE because of exclusive deals. You can also see that Airbus prefers RR over GE as the A380 and probably the A350 too began testing with RR/ will go with RR's first. It has got GE's on the A350 because the market is big enough for both engines.

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
Yes, RR were working on a big Trent 800 for 777 developments and the basic Trent design can grow well above 100,000lbs. GE got the nod from Boeing but RR could still do such an engine for a bigger A350/346 hybrid if asked.

Would that engine be based on Trent or Trent 800? The difference is that the latter is a 10 year old design. Of course it could build such engines but they would cost much. Is the market worth the devolpment? I doubt. Also would such an engine find enough place below the A346E wing? Here i think using 4 GENX ir slightly modified Trent1000 (Trent 1500 maybe) would be better economely. The purchase price would be lower then with 2 engines, no ETOPS , lower maintenance and the pax feeling safer (OK, i know , but the pax don't). 2 Engines would offer (if possible) slightly lower fuel burn 1 or 2% and exact A350 type rating. That is it. What do you think would be better ?
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 11:37 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
Interesting. Are you imagining something with the wings, engines and systems of an A350 but the body of, say, an A346? Or maybe not quite that long?

Well what I has in mind was a stretch of the A350 to the size of the current A340-500. This would fit nicely between the B777-200 and -300.

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 5):
In a minute someone will come along and scream about cabin floor spaces of the 787 and A350, and state how similar the 788 is to the A358 and 789 to the A359. However i'd be more interested in seeing the cabin lengths, because for most airlines the seating acoss will be the same, despite the 787 having a wider cabin.

True, but Zvezda means well.

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
What do Airbus have against GE? They have no trouble with GE on the A350.

GE is already the leading engine choice in relation to the A350. RR is still to capture its first A350 client.

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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Wed Jan 04, 2006 11:44 pm

As someone else commented, why on Earth would Airbus need to stretch the A359 to respond to an eminent 787-10 when the -10 would be roughly the same size as the A359??? That would be like Airbus producing the A340-600 in response to the 777-200ER. It wouldn't make any sense.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:09 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 7):
Airbus have nothing against GE , but it for example offers the A345/6 only with RR. RR have got an exclusive deal from Airbus.

Not a good example. As I said above, Airbus first offered GE exclusivity on the A345/346. They never offered RR exclusivity. RR have exclusivity because GE weren't interested and PW said they'd only come to the party if they got exclusivity - which Airbus weren't prepared to give them. So RR ended up with exclusivity they hadn't demanded and more by luck than any bias on the part of Airbus.

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 7):
You can also see that Airbus prefers RR over GE as the A380 ... began testing with RR.

Nope. RR will power the first flight of the A380 not because of any preference on the part of Airbus but because Singapore Airlines chose RR over GP and they were (are) the lead customer. If SQ had chosen the GP7000 then that would be the lead engine.

(Similarly, the 787 will make its maiden flight with RR - not because they're favoured by Boeing [over GE?!] but because the lead customer - ANA - chose RR over GE.)

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 7):
You can also see that Airbus prefers RR over GE as ... probably the A350 too ... will go with RR's first.

It would be extraordinary if the A350 flew with the RR Trent 1700 before GEnx since the engine won't be available for delivery to customers until mid-2011. Moreover, RR have yet to secure a single customer whereas GE has at least six customers so far for the GEnx on the A350 amounting to over 100 airframes.

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 7):
It has got GE's on the A350 because the market is big enough for both engines.

That remains to be seen  Wink. But your implication is that RR were a given on the A350 whereas GE just scraped on board because Airbus felt there was enough to go round. That's not the way I read it. GE were on board from the word go but RR didn't sign up until last October.
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:14 am

If you say so then I will just sit silently . Always thought A prefers RR and B prefers GE.

Quoting PM (Reply 10):
That remains to be seen Wink. But your implication is that RR were a given on the A350 whereas GE just scraped on board because Airbus felt there was enough to go round. That's not the way I read it. GE were on board from the word go but RR didn't sign up until last October.

I don't think that GE "just" came. HOWever , don't try to tell me that no one will order the RR1700 . Abwarten und tee trinken .
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:16 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 7):
Would that engine be based on Trent or Trent 800?

Gosh, I'm no engineer. I doubt if the Trent 800 will be developed further now but that was the plan back in the 1990s. All that matters is that RR could surely build a big enough engine to power a big Airbus twin if anyone asked them to. It'd be a Trent of some sort but almost certainly would have a 'new' (and odd) number. It guess it could be based on the T1000, the T1700 or pretty much any other Trent for that matter.

Or they could just use GE90s...  Wink
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:18 am

An A345/6E offers some advantages. The GE90 is going to start running up against efficiency barriers because of its size. Sure, its efficient, but it can't ever be as efficient as a GEnx.

An A345/6E with Trent 1700s or GEnx will reduce burn by 6 percent or so, maybe more by the time such an engine would enter service. A350 weight improvements will bring the 345/6E in line with the 773ER.

Then, the 1700 or GEnx can also grow a fair bit more (up to 65 - 70k) giving the plane growth potential in range and payload the 777 cannot match.

There was a fantastic article in FI a few weeks ago about this.

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 4):
Airbus won't use the GE simply because it is not a RR.

Airbus has already said they would offer the A345/6E with the GEnx.

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 7):
RR have got an exclusive deal from Airbus.

That's actually NOT true. No such agreement exists.


At any rate, I'm skeptical of all of it, but I have read things that do make sense with regards to the 345/6E working out.

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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:26 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 11):
Always thought A prefers RR and B prefers GE.

There's a history there. The very first A300 was intended to have RRs (the RB209, I seem to remember) but RR jilted Airbus in favour of doing the RB211 for the TriStar. Airbus wasn't best pleased and RR had to wait until the mid-1980s to get onto any Airbus programme by which time GE and PW had built up good customer bases on the A300 and A310. Indeed, at the turn of the millennium (just six years ago) there were only 50 Airbuses anywhere (all A330s) with RR compared to hundreds of GE and PW planes. Even now RR have their engines on just 235 Airbuses (A330s, A340s, A380s). They've definitely come in from the cold vis-a-vis Airbus but it took thirty years or so!

And Boeing's love affair with GE is also fairly recent but that's another story.

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 11):
don't try to tell me that no one will order the RR1700

Wouldn't dream of it! I'm sure they will. I've even seen it suggested that by waiting longer than GE and customising the Trent 1700 for the A350 they may end up with the better engine and, in the long run, higher sales. And, since I hold a small but emotionally important stake in RR, I very much hope they sell a bucketload of Trent 1700s!
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:36 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 13):
Airbus has already said they would offer the A345/6E with the GEnx.

Strictly speaking, the FLIGHT article dated 29th October says:

"The -600E would be powered by an engine developed from the Trent 1000/1700 family under development for the Boeing 787 and A350."

and

"Flight International understands the manufacturer has dubbed the proposed engine the “Trent 1500”, which would be a Trent 1000/1700 derivative."

and

"a version equipped with the General Electric GEnx has also been considered."

I think that falls somewhat short of stating that they will ofer a GEnx version. Would the market be big enough to warrant offering two engines?

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 13):
Quoting Mohamed (Reply 7):
RR have got an exclusive deal from Airbus.

That's actually NOT true. No such agreement exists.

As I've argued above, RR ended up with exclusivity by default. But I've seen it argued here on A.Net in other threads that RR do have the field to themselves until some time soon (later this year? 2007?) after which time PW (or whoever) is welcome to offer an engine. Though it seems quite unlikely now that any such thing will happen!
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:45 am

Thanks PM for the information. Quite interesting .
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:55 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 16):
Thanks PM for the information. Quite interesting .

You're welcome!

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 11):
If you say so then I will just sit silently.

That's the last thing I'd want you to do! Post your ideas and impressions on A.Net and see if they fly. The worst that will happen is that some smartarse (like me) will disagree and you'll get into an interesting discussion. Both parties (and onlookers) will probably learn something. I've learned a lot here by stating what I understood to be the case and then having others correct me. We're all learning all the time.
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:56 am

Quote : Messier-Dowty has just been selected to provide the main landing gear, which has been conceived to allow for future growth of the aircraft.

http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/new...awst_story.jsp?id=news/12125p3.xml
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 1:07 am

Quoting PM (Reply 17):

That's the last thing I'd want you to do! Post your ideas and impressions on A.Net and see if they fly. The worst that will happen is that some smartarse (like me) will disagree and you'll get into an interesting discussion. Both parties (and onlookers) will probably learn something. I've learned a lot here by stating what I understood to be the case and then having others correct me. We're all learning all the time.

Beautifully said PM. Welcome to my respected users list. You have deserved it.

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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 1:52 am

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
Now that Emirates is pushing Boeing into building the B787-10, I have been wondering what would be the probability of Airbus doing a stretch of the A350-900.

An eventual A350-1000 may fit well between the B777-200 and B777-300. While at the same time offering greater economics.

Would we see a new wing to support the stretch or would the current wing be sufficient for such a stretch? What other changes should we expect from such a derivative? Engines, Landing Gear?

The A350-900 already has substantially less range than both the A350-800 and the 787-9 (7,500 vs. 8,800nm and 8,600-8,800nm), so a double-stretch without a commensurate increase in takeoff weight will further reduce range, possibly below 7,000nm. This would greatly hinder the A350-1000's ability to compete with the 772ER and 773ER. The 787-10x will also suffer some loss in range, but word is Boeing can push the 787's takeoff weight to about 560,000 lbs. (compared to the -9HGW at 540,000 lbs.) without redesigning the wing or landing gear to help recoup some lost range.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 8):
Well what I has in mind was a stretch of the A350 to the size of the current A340-500. This would fit nicely between the B777-200 and -300.

The A340-500 is slightly smaller than the 777-200 and the A340-600 is noticeably smaller than the 777-300, so an A350-1000 would have to be quite a bit longer than the A345 to pose a threat to the 777-300.

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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 2:06 am

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 20):
The 787-10x will also suffer some loss in range, but word is Boeing can push the 787's takeoff weight to about 560,000 lbs. (compared to the -9HGW at 540,000 lbs.) without redesigning the wing or landing gear to help recoup some lost range

It will also need much more powerful engines to this. Such engines would also benefit the A350, which has stretch to 570 000 lb built in to the existing design.
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 2:14 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 5):
A346E is an A346 with A350 fuselage , nose , similar tail and GENX/Trent 1000 engines.

How can the A346E have those sort of changes and merely be an enhanced A346 when those changes produced the A350 as a completely new aircraft? Shouldn' this new aircraft be called the A360?
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 4:06 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 22):

How can the A346E have those sort of changes and merely be an enhanced A346 when those changes produced the A350 as a completely new aircraft? Shouldn' this new aircraft be called the A360?

Good point. Never thought of it. I would like to Add that the A350 has a completeley new Wing where the A346 would properly use it's current wing with slight modifactions.

Quoting PM (Reply 17):
That's the last thing I'd want you to do! Post your ideas and impressions on A.Net and see if they fly. The worst that will happen is that some smartarse (like me) will disagree and you'll get into an interesting discussion. Both parties (and onlookers) will probably learn something. I've learned a lot here by stating what I understood to be the case and then having others correct me. We're all learning all the time.

I have been an onlooker for over 1 and a half years, that is where all my knowledge come from. What I meant is what is the point in arguing when it seems that you are right and I am wrong logically. At least for this time.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 4:21 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 23):
You may have won the battle , but you haven't won the war !

But I hope we're both on the same side: disinterested seekers of the truth!  Wink
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 4:33 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 21):
It will also need much more powerful engines to this. Such engines would also benefit the A350, which has stretch to 570 000 lb built in to the existing design.

Why? It's only a 3.7% increase in gross weight. The -10X's reduced rotation margin might demand an additional slight increase, but nothing terribly dramatic. Just a few months ago, Boeing didn't seem to have any problems pushing the 787-9's MTOW from 500,000 lbs. to 540,000 lbs. at QF's behest. This was a much larger increase -- twice the gross weight difference between the -9 and the -10X.

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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 4:38 am

Quoting PM (Reply 24):
But I hope we're both on the same side: disinterested seekers of the truth! Wink

Of course we are looking at the truth! Although I doubt the same side!  mischievous 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 4:49 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 26):
Of course we are looking at the truth! Although I doubt the same side!

Does "truth" depend on which "side" you're on? Hmmm, who out there has heard of the IB Diploma course, 'ToK'? You have your truth and I have mine. Therefore there is no such thing as "truth". Discuss!
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 4:59 am

Actually in our case it matters.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 5:25 am

I think Airbus should develop the A350 in both directions, longer and shorter. The A358 is 59m long, the A359 is 65m long. IMO the need two longer versions, maybe 70m and 75m long, with a new wing, maybe even with four engines, and a pair that is 55m and 50m long, with a smaller wing, to offer something between the A358 and the A321. But I have doubts that they will do this, because they go rather for profit than for market-share. Besides, the engineers and planners are probably busy enough with the A380 variations, the A350 itself, and the A400M, maybe even A32NG.

The proposed A345/6E show the advantages of Airbus' fuselage concept. The A350 improvements can be applied to the A345/6 way easier than the 787 advantages to the 777.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 5:40 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 28):
You are disinterested while i am interested !

I'll take you at face value and assume that you know the difference between 'disinterested' and 'uninterested'. I try to be the former but am definitely not the latter!
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 5:42 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 29):
IMO the need two longer versions, maybe 70m and 75m long, with a new wing, maybe even with four engines,

That is the A346E , the 70m version could be either the A345E (IF build) or an A350 with 2 wings and standard engines with only about 7000km range ,as an oponent to the B773 A
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 5:52 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 29):
IMO the need two longer versions, maybe 70m and 75m long, with a new wing, maybe even with four engines, and a pair that is 55m and 50m long, with a smaller wing, to offer something between the A358 and the A321. But I have doubts that they will do this, because they go rather for profit than for market-share.

Well, that would be an insane plan. 6 variants in a smaller market than for a narrowbody jet, none of which being by enough capacity, particularly at the upper end. And there is probably a reason why didn't make a smaller A350 to begin with to compete more directly with the 788. The weight differences for the two platforms would be bigger percentagewise for smaller aircraft, just like they are with 772LR and A345 compared with the 773ER and A346.

[Edited 2006-01-04 21:56:44]
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 5:53 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 31):
...as an oponent to the B773A

Is it worth it? The 777-300 sold well at first but has been a non-event subsequently. Put it this way. Boeing have sold 60 so far. Of these, forty (40) were sold in four months between September and December 1995 - fully ten years ago. Since then they've sold another twenty in ten years - that's just two a year - and gained exactly no (count them - 0) new customers since ILFC ordered two in March 1996. No doubt the -300 has been a profitable addition to an already successful programme but it hardly looks like a market that Airbus badly needs to go after.
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 6:02 am

Quoting PM (Reply 33):
Is it worth it? The 777-300 sold well at first but has been a non-event subsequently. Put it this way. Boeing have sold 60 so far. Of these, forty (40) were sold in four months between September and December 1995 - fully ten years ago. Since then they've sold another twenty in ten years - that's just two a year - and gained exactly no (count them - 0) new customers since ILFC ordered two in March 1996. No doubt the -300 has been a profitable addition to an already successful programme but it hardly looks like a market that Airbus badly needs to go after.

Well, it's market has been cut short by the 773ER and A346. I would imagine airlines would rather abuse the 773ER in a larger fleet than add 773As, just as SQ did with 772ERs. You have much more flexibility.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:21 am

@ PM , actually i think it isn't worth it. In some time i will make a new thread about modifactions for the A350 i think could be worth it . Tomorw or the day after.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 34):
Well, it's market has been cut short by the 773ER and A346. I would imagine airlines would rather abuse the 773ER in a larger fleet than add 773As, just as SQ did with 772ERs. You have much more flexibility.

Yes but it is different here. Unlike the 772ER the 773ER is only offered with GE's and is the most expensive Boeing now ! So if you ,for example, operate 10 B772 and for example have 10 routes , but only 2 out of them would have advantages with the 772A then it might be better to go with all ER. Apply the same case for the B773 and you might be better getting 877ER and 2 773A . You will save about 60 million on purchase alone !
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Stitch
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:37 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 29):
I think Airbus should develop the A350 in both directions, longer and shorter. The A358 is 59m long, the A359 is 65m long. IMO the need two longer versions, maybe 70m and 75m long, with a new wing, maybe even with four engines...



Quoting Mohamed (Reply 31):
That is the A346E...

I agree. As is, the A350 offers better economy to existing A342/A343 operators, so it's a natural upgrade path for them, especially if they also operate A332 and A333 equipment. A 75m stretch would have an MTOW closing on (if not surpassing) 600,000 pounds, so she'd have the same thrust issues the 787-10 is facing.

An A346E would narrow the gap to the 773ER and make it much more inviting to current A346 operators looking for more capacity and/or range.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 29):
(A)nd a pair that is 55m and 50m long, with a smaller wing, to offer something between the A358 and the A321.

It is true Airbus is leaving somewhat of a whole at the lower end as they are at the upper. The 787-3 and 777-300ER pretty much have no competition from an equivalent Airbus product. The A346E would help address the latter, but I am not sure the lower end of the market (787-3) is big enough to really chase. The US domestic short-haul market favors the 787-3 (since they'd be replacing 762s and 763s), and while airlines like LH might be a possible customer for an A306 replacement, they may just decide to go with more frequencies with A321s...

Quoting PM (Reply 33):
The 777-300 sold well at first but has been a non-event subsequently. Put it this way. Boeing have sold 60 so far. Of these, forty (40) were sold in four months between September and December 1995 - fully ten years ago. Since then they've sold another twenty in ten years - that's just two a year - and gained exactly no (count them - 0) new customers since ILFC ordered two in March 1996. No doubt the -300 has been a profitable addition to an already successful programme but it hardly looks like a market that Airbus badly needs to go after.

Especially since the 777-300 favored short-haul/high-capacity routes like intra-Japan that were being handled by high-density 742s and 743s. Once the handful of airlines that needed/wanted them bought them, interest appears to have dried up.
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:54 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 29):
The proposed A345/6E show the advantages of Airbus' fuselage concept. The A350 improvements can be applied to the A345/6 way easier than the 787 advantages to the 777.

Point is, these improvements will only make A340E competitive against current B777. While 787 advantages applied to 777 will (again!) make 340 an outsider. I don't see it happening, however, as Y3 will come instead, and I don't see 777 dramatically losing its market share before that. Still, 345/6E makes much sense as it will be a competitive product with minimum investment. To me, looks no less interesting than 747-8.
 
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 8:31 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 35):
Yes but it is different here. Unlike the 772ER the 773ER is only offered with GE's and is the most expensive Boeing now ! So if you ,for example, operate 10 B772 and for example have 10 routes , but only 2 out of them would have advantages with the 772A then it might be better to go with all ER. Apply the same case for the B773 and you might be better getting 877ER and 2 773A . You will save about 60 million on purchase alone !

Well, that's assuming that the discounted price is $26 million more per 773ER frame. I expect that the actual difference is far less. There is significant commonality between the 773 and 773ER frames.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 6:05 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 32):
Well, that would be an insane plan. 6 variants in a smaller market than for a narrowbody jet, none of which being by enough capacity, particularly at the upper end.

Not more insane than Airbus with the A310, A300, A330, A340, A345, and A346.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
An A346E would narrow the gap to the 773ER



Quoting RIX (Reply 37):
Point is, these improvements will only make A340E competitive against current B777.

The A346E would clearly outperform the 773ER. The A346 already has better economics, only a slightly higher fuel burn. The E version would take care of the weight advantage the 777 has, then it would be far better. Can Boeing simply replace the 777 fuselage with a 787 fuselage? Not that easy. I already wonder who will dump their 773ERs first.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 6:52 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 39):
The A346E would clearly outperform the 773ER. The A346 already has better economics, only a slightly higher fuel burn. The E version would take care of the weight advantage the 777 has, then it would be far better. Can Boeing simply replace the 777 fuselage with a 787 fuselage? Not that easy. I already wonder who will dump their 773ERs first.

Um, if the A346 had better economics, they would be selling.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:03 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 1):
Airbus should dump the A346E proposal completly. I cant see why The A346 wings cant be adopted onto a streched A350 body with GE90 or similar engines. Im surprised this possible aircraft has not been discussed much before.

The A346E will not be dumped simply because there are too many people and resources allocated to the program at this current stage and also because Airbus' hands are full with too many projects at this point.

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 4):
A346E is an A346 with A350 fuselage , nose , similar tail and GENX/Trent 1000 engines. Add to this modified gears and slightly modified wings using more composites , AluLi and A350 winglets and you have got probably roughly 15%lower fuel burn over current A346 + more payload at same MTOW (380t) and more range. That is 7 better then 773ER . The latter cannot improve much more without major work A350 style. Even just modifying the engines cannot get more then a few percent , because the current engines already have much GENX technology in it. Add to that lower trip costs (excluding fuel), lower purchase price and more range for the A346E .

Actually the A346E will only have new engines and some composite wing panels but not much else, at least at the current stage.
The purchase price will be lower than the 777 but I have no idea where you got the lower trip costs.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 13):
An A345/6E offers some advantages. The GE90 is going to start running up against efficiency barriers because of its size. Sure, its efficient, but it can't ever be as efficient as a GEnx.

This is right when comparing one GenX to one GE90, but with the 346E vs 777 it's one GE90 vs two GEnX. It is correct though, the growth potential of the GE90/777 combination has probably reached its limits.

An A345/6E with Trent 1700s or GEnx will reduce burn by 6 percent or so, maybe more by the time such an engine would enter service. A350 weight improvements will bring the 345/6E in line with the 773ER.

100% correct

Then, the 1700 or GEnx can also grow a fair bit more (up to 65 - 70k) giving the plane growth potential in range and payload the 777 cannot match.

Also 100% correct

Quoting Thorben (Reply 29):
I think Airbus should develop the A350 in both directions, longer and shorter. The A358 is 59m long, the A359 is 65m long. IMO the need two longer versions, maybe 70m and 75m long, with a new wing, maybe even with four engines,

Uuumm, they have, it's called A346E

Quoting Thorben (Reply 39):
The A346E would clearly outperform the 773ER. The A346 already has better economics, only a slightly higher fuel burn. The E version would take care of the weight advantage the 777 has, then it would be far better. Can Boeing simply replace the 777 fuselage with a 787 fuselage? Not that easy. I already wonder who will dump their 773ERs first.

I still don't know what better economics you people are talking about. It is cheaper to acquire, yes, but that's all. The fuel burn is higher than the 777 (it's not a fuel guzzler like some people suggest though) and there are also a lot more reliability issues than the 777.

The 346E is still a good idea in my opinion, a much cheaper alternative to a A350-1000 (which isn't gonna happen by the way) and an aircraft that will be 100% competitive to the 777ER.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:27 pm

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 41):
The 346E is still a good idea in my opinion, a much cheaper alternative to a A350-1000 (which isn't gonna happen by the way) and an aircraft that will be 100% competitive to the 777ER.

There were some around here who stated the -1000 was not a stretch but simply the study name for the higher MTOW A359. It seems likely there will be such an aircraft.

I don't know about the A346E, it seems like Airbus has continously invested money into the A340 family, and not seen much return from those investments because Boeing one ups them a very short time later. If they keep on making A340 derivatives, pretty soon industry pundits will be commenting on how all Airbus creates are derivatives, even though they involve substantial modifications. I don't see how they are going to get a return on the $3 to $4 billion spent on the A340NG even if they spend significant additional money to upgrade it. They are just going to add to the price tag of the aircraft to create a product competitive with the 773ER, which is likely to be a moving target.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:44 pm

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
Now that Emirates is pushing Boeing into building the B787-10, I have been wondering what would be the probability of Airbus doing a stretch of the A350-900.

An eventual A350-1000 may fit well between the B777-200 and B777-300.



Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 42):
There were some around here who stated the -1000 was not a stretch but simply the study name for the higher MTOW A359. It seems likely there will be such an aircraft.

This thread is about an A359 stretch, not a HGW version, and that's what I meant isn't going to happen.
I haven't heard anything about a HGW version yet but I wouldn't rule that out, a 500nm range boost would be good for the 359!
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:36 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 40):
Um, if the A346 had better economics, they would be selling.

Uuummmmm. They are selling, there is still a backlog of around three years. The other factor is that these airplanes are supposed to fly another twenty years. If the fuel prices are going to become higher and higher, after a while the 773ER will be of advantage.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 41):
Actually the A346E will only have new engines and some composite wing panels but not much else, at least at the current stage.
The purchase price will be lower than the 777 but I have no idea where you got the lower trip costs.

Uuuuuummmmmm. Maybe you should read the source.

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...Enhanced+A340+to+take+on+777+.html

Clearly says that it will have the same AL fuselage like the A350.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 41):
Uuumm, they have, it's called A346E

It's not a firm program, it's just a study.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 41):
I still don't know what better economics you people are talking about. It is cheaper to acquire, yes, but that's all. The fuel burn is higher than the 777 (it's not a fuel guzzler like some people suggest though) and there are also a lot more reliability issues than the 777.

Again, read the source.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:55 pm

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 41):

Actually the A346E will only have new engines and some composite wing panels but not much else, at least at the current stage.
The purchase price will be lower than the 777 but I have no idea where you got the lower trip costs.

Besides the already mentioned fuselage, it will get the new A350 style nose, a modified A350 tail wich ads 20 seats to get it to 773 size and lower CASM and the new crew rest in nose/tail for better space usage.
About the lower Trip cost i read many many many times here on A.net even read many sources, however those tripcosts are excluding fuel. The only B773ER is fuel, wich is of major importance today.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 41):
and there are also a lot more reliability issues than the 777.

As good as i know, most of these issues are about fuel systems and engines, which will be renewed.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:05 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 38):
Well, that's assuming that the discounted price is $26 million more per 773ER frame. I expect that the actual difference is far less. There is significant commonality between the 773 and 773ER frames.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/prices/index.html

The Boeing 777-300 costs 198.5 -- 225.5
The Boeing 777-3ER costs 226.0 -- 253.0

From the lower end the difference is about 27,5 million and same for the upper end!

Quoting RIX (Reply 37):

Point is, these improvements will only make A340E competitive against current B777. While 787 advantages applied to 777 will (again!) make 340 an outsider. I don't see it happening, however, as Y3 will come instead, and I don't see 777 dramatically losing its market share before that. Still, 345/6E makes much sense as it will be a competitive product with minimum investment. To me, looks no less interesting than 747-8.

That is true, but unlike teh Airbus the 777 cannot be improved much. The GE115 already have a very big share of GENX technology inside, so they can't upgrade it to much. A A350 style fuselage upgrade would cost way to much, Boeing already thinks it is to expensive to completly upgrade the B747-8 one.
Don't expect the Y3 to early, too. If it comes in 2015 (doubtful , i know) then the B747-8 will live only 6 years! So the Y3 sill has some time to go.
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RE: Probability Of A350-1000 Launch?

Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:46 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 39):
The A346 already has better economics, only a slightly higher fuel burn.

I don't know what this "better economics is", but the way you put it sounds like 773ER and 346 are "more or less equal", like 320 and 737NG. I'm afraid that exaggeration like "773 kills, crashes, massacres 346" (something like this was posted here not long ago) is much closer to reality than "better economics" of 346...

Quoting Thorben (Reply 39):
The E version would take care of the weight advantage the 777 has, then it would be far better.

- remains totally unclear.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 39):
Can Boeing simply replace the 777 fuselage with a 787 fuselage? Not that easy.

- I'd even say, not easy at all, to say the least. But that is not going to be their priority. I'd even rather expect 787-11 to appear before Y3, if necessary ("not that easy", but way easier than apply 787 technology to 777; then A346E is a toast), but, again, it remains totally unclear whether it will be necessary.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 39):
already wonder who will dump their 773ERs first.

- we'll hardly see more 773ERs dumped than 380s dumped replaced by 747-8I. Which is, I'm afraid, will be hardly more than we saw 330s dumped replaced by 764s...

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 46):
unlike teh Airbus the 777 cannot be improved much

- again, Boeing will answer with 787 derivatives, not 777. May be "not easy" and "not cheap", as basic 787 design looks to be reaching its "upper end" with 787-10, but way easier than "777E" and better than doing nothing.

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 46):
Don't expect the Y3 to early, too. If it comes in 2015 (doubtful , i know) then the B747-8 will live only 6 years!

Y3 was mentioned just to say that Boeing knows what to do in this market. When will it come, and what will be done before that - we can only guess (and my guess is, 787 has enough potential to take care about any 340/350 modification - it is wider and lighter). As for 747-8 to live only 6 years - 747-8F may last much longer, while 747-8I may never appear... Plus, Y3 may start with 773 segment, not touching 747-8, if Airbus doesn't do it first - like 787 started with 767 market, not touching 772 market until Airbus did it.