Pe@rson
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A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:07 am

I have, for sometime, been thinking about the viability of a low-cost, no-frills airline based in Istanbul - at Sabiha Gokcen, not the main airport, Ataturk. I won’t be starting this; instead, it’s just for fun.

There seems to be a lot of potential for flights to the EU, particularly Germany, especially as airfares are ordinarily expensive; there is a good and ever-growing demand; and flight times aren't really that long. What's more, it would be possible to use almost all secondary airports, thereby further reducing costs.

Here's a list I have compiled regarding potential routes, although expansion wouldn't be that quick:

(Note: all the distances in brackets, e.g. (677 NM), are from Sabiha Gokcen to the stated place. * denotes the probability of at least 1-2 daily flights eventually if not initially. + denotes the routes which would most probably be the most demanded.)

Bratislava - for Vienna (677 NM)*+
Ciampino - for Rome (756 NM)
Bergamo - for Milan (903 NM)
Salzburg - for Munich (812 NM)*+
Friedrichshafen - for Zurich (941 NM)*
Karlsruhe - for Strasbourg/Stuttgart (1017 NM)
Hahn - for Frankfurt/Luxembourg*+
Niederrhein - for Colonge/Bonn/Dusseldorf/Dortmund (1151 NM)*+
Lubeck - for Hamburg (1078 NM)*
Schonefeld - for Berlin (945 NM)*
Malmo - for Copenhagen (1081 NM)
Nykoping - for Stockholm (1173 NM)
Charleroi - for Brussels (1185 NM)*
Rotterdam - for Amsterdam (1218 NM)*
Stansted - for London (1363 NM)*+
Beauvasis - for Paris (1254 NM)*+
St. Etienne - for Lyon (1127 NM)
Grenoble - for Geneva (1082 NM) (or possibly EBU)*
Toulon - for Nice (1041 NM)
Girona - for Barcelona (1195 NM)

I also think that there would be sufficient demand for twice-to-four-times-weekly frequencies to Dublin (1616 NM); East Midlands (for Birmingham, West Midlands, East Midlands, etc; 1435 NM); Liverpool (for Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Bradford, etc.; 1496 NM); Prestwick (for Glasgow, wider Scotland, possibly Newcastle, etc.; 1594 NM); and possibly even Altenburg (for Leipzig; 924 NM).

I have completely ignored Eastern Europe for now, although there is good potential there.

There don't seem to be that many useable secondary airports, at least not yet, in Eastern Europe, so unless excellent deals could be done with the relevant authorities of the primary airports, this region would either not be served or possibly served through slightly more distant airports, like Plovdiv (I used to live there) for Sofia (213 NM), Novi Sad for Belgrade (486 NM), Banja Luka for Sarajevo (582 NM) and Maribor for Ljubljana (680 NM). I believe that airfields/airbases are to be turned into civil airports close to both Warsaw and Budapest, although I don't yet have any details.

Here's a map showing all of the aforementioned potential routes:



On the longer flights, it would be possibly to fly westwards in the evening and to then fly eastwards overnight . thus arriving into Istanbul at 0500-0600. For example, you could depart Istanbul at 2100 and arrive into Stansted at 2255. You could then depart Stansted at 2320 and arrive into Istanbul at about 0500 the next day.

There are some potential problems:

1) Acquiring permission to operate these flights - Turkey isn't yet in the EU;

2) The relatively low usage of the Internet in Turkey, although this is growing - and travel agencies aren't appealing due to commissions; and

3) Whether customers would make sufficient all-important auxiliary purchases, like car hire, hotels, etc, although I’m sure onboard refreshments and non-consumables would do well, particularly as they’d be cheaper than usual (to encourage extra purchases; hell, on longer flights you could offer the equivalent of 50p/£1 voucher to encourage people to buy lots).

The main objective would, of course, be to maximise profitability. To achieve this, I have devised at least seven broad aims, under which each is numerous other aims. Here are the seven broad aims:

1) To reduce costs as much as possible and to thus maximise efficiency and productivity;

2) To increase ticket sales and yields as much as possible;

3) To increase auxiliary sales (i.e. non-ticket sales) as much as possible;

4) To foster unbeatably good relationships with all stakeholders;

5) To offer continually unbeatably good customer helping;

6) To market and advertise aggressively albeit humourously; and

7) To always have an adaptive - and not an inert - culture in everything you do, in order to always be on the ball and to never become complacent.

The 73H, i.e. the 737-800 with fuel-efficient winglets, in a 189-seat configuration, seems the best choice.

That'll do for now.

Any comments or suggestions? Fire away!

[Edited 2006-01-05 01:29:03]
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BAxMAN
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:17 am

Goodness...you certainly have been thinking.....

Quoting Pe@rson (Thread starter):
Bratislava - for Istanbul (677 NM)*+

Even by FR's standards, that's pretty extreme.
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Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:20 am

Quoting BAxMAN (Reply 1):
Even by FR's standards, that's pretty extreme.

Sorry, I meant for Vienna.  Silly
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bennett123
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:28 am

677M is still a long way.

How much cheaper would you anticipate being, compared to airlines that fly to the destinations that your customers want.
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:39 am

Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 3):
677M is still a long way.

Probably about 1 3/4 hours westwards (because of head wind) and about 1.5 hours eastwards (because of tail wind). Not bad at all. In reality, SAW-STN would be about 3 hours westwards and about 3.25-3.5 eastwards (when I flew LHR-SOF, which is only about 220 less than to SW, it took about 2.5 hours). Again, not bad at all.

As I said, I meant Bratislava is for Vienna not Istanbul.

Probably between a quarter and a half of the usual fares - which are expensive/very expensive - with occasional extraordinarily special deals (if have sufficient reserves to do this). If you also had 'fare tops,' i.e. a maximum fare for reach route, like a walk-up fare, then that could be marketed to your advantage. It's obviously essential to use yield management effectively.

Low-cost airlines gain an awful lot of revenue from non-ticket sales, so you'd have to ensure that this is achieved - and always increased - while your costs are always controlled and reduced (where possible).

Don't forget that you'd also have a low cost-base, although the airline couldn't acquire as good bulk-buying discounts as, say, Ryanair, as it'd be far smaller - as any start-up is (obviously).

If you have a low cost-base, you can have a higher profit margin or charge and sustain low prices or sometimes do both.

In terms of aircraft and staff utilisation on a long route, a 73H could, as an example, fly from Istanbul to Stansted thrice-daily, including an overnight leg from STN to SAW, and including 1.5 hours in SAW for the daily mx. So, not bad - especially on a rather longer flight. A downside is that the crew would probably be able to only for SAW-STN-SAW on one shift, although on the shorter sectors, like SAW-BTS-SAW, they could probably also do, say, SAW-CIA-SAW.

[Edited 2006-01-05 01:55:40]
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bennett123
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:42 am

I have just tried www.travelocity.co.uk looking for a flight to Istanbul on 05/02/2006 and coming back on 08/02/2006.

London (LHR) with Turkish £153 return.

Birmingham with Lufthansa £188.60 return with 1 stop.

Manchester with Turkish £194.10 return.

Personally I would tend to opt for an airline that I had heard of.

IMO to break down customer resistance you need to be much cheaper.
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:48 am

Yes, flights from the UK are typically cheaper than from other EU countries, but for all but LHR they're relatively expensive and inconvenient and time-consuming: they all involve a stop enroute (except from MAN with TK, although AZ is normally cheaper). The airline would offer:

Far cheaper price;

Unbeatable punctuality;

Unbeatably good simple customer service/helping - always fantastically helpful, courteous, professional and friendly, but with a sense-of-humour;

A far quicker journey;

Less stress and tiredness because it'd be quicker and non-stop;

Less time at the airports;

Less time to collect luggage;

Far fewer lost begs;

A quick-and-simple way to buy tickets with no fuss or hassle;

An unbeatably quick way to check-in (ideally via online);

And so forth.

There is FAR more to low-cost carriers than merely the occasional very low price.

The downside is that it would, from EMA, LPL and PIK, be 2-4-times-weekly.

What you must realise is that there would be a hellava lot of Turkish people flying - because they either couldn't afford to pay the much higher fares or don't want to. This will be especially important when Turkey enters the EU. There is a HUGE amount of Turkish workers in Germany. You might even get people travelling overland from Syria, Iran, Armenia, etc., to Istanbul to connect. A bit like Ryanair transporting a lot of Polish/Latvians/Lithuanians who couldn't previously afford to travel.

[Edited 2006-01-05 02:06:06]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:27 am

Very good plan James, I particularly like the notion of return flights flying through the night back to Turkey. If you are on a really tight budget this will save spending a night in a hotel/hostel.

Any idea of a name yet Wink

Dan Smile
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Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:33 am

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 7):
Very good plan James, I particularly like the notion of return flights flying through the night back to Turkey. If you are on a really tight budget this will save spending a night in a hotel/hostel.

Yes. On longer flights, such as STN/BVA/EMA/LPL/PIK/DUB/etc., that'd be a good - and essential - way to help increase staff and aircraft utilisation.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 7):
Any idea of a name yet

I have a very good name for a low-cost carrier, but I don't think it'd be as good once it's in Turkish. It's Fly.com or Flynow.com. The slogan for either is 'And you're there!' So:

Fly.com - and you're there!

Or

Flynow.com - and you're there!

Think about it. It's very clever, even if I do say so myself.   Wink The 'And you're there!' bit is obviously indicative of the ease and simplicity with which it is to fly with the airline. No hassle, no bullshit.

[Edited 2006-01-05 02:47:35]
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:05 am

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 6):
What you must realise is that there would be a hellava lot of Turkish people flying - because they either couldn't afford to pay the much higher fares or don't want to. This will be especially important when Turkey enters the EU. There is a HUGE amount of Turkish workers in Germany. You might even get people travelling overland from Syria, Iran, Armenia, etc., to Istanbul to connect. A bit like Ryanair transporting a lot of Polish/Latvians/Lithuanians who couldn't previously afford to travel.

Looks like you have spent a quiet a lot of time on this business plan, on the other hand there are few things I am not so sure of:

-SAW is a very small airport, and a longs way from IST for all those transfers.

-One of the biggest reasons Turkish people are not flying to Europe is not the cost, but the visas, and the $50 exit fee. You mentioned "when she enters EU". That is not likely.

-Recently there were some posts about TK starting a LCC with a different name and an image with its 734's most likely from SAW, so you are on the right track.

-And Pegasus started using SAW for their domestic flights, and they ordered if I am not mistaken 8 or so 738's, so you are very much on the right track.

-But I think it is going to be very hard to compete with TK after 50 more jets join its fleet in the coming years, and still expecting 787/350 and a E-190 orders.

Enjoyed the post, thanks.
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:28 am

Quoting TK787 (Reply 9):
-SAW is a very small airport, and a longs way from IST for all those transfers.

Hmm. How long from central IST? 1-2 hours is fine.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 9):
One of the biggest reasons Turkish people are not flying to Europe is not the cost, but the visas, and the $50 exit fee. You mentioned "when she enters EU". That is not likely.

True. But I think Turkey will be in the EU. Also, don't forget that a lot of Turkish people live in the EU - large amounts of Turks (over 1 million) live in Germany alone, with sizeable amounts in, for example, the Netherlands and the UK.

If domestic flights are to operate from SAW, then I sure-as-hell think international flights would be fine.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 9):
But I think it is going to be very hard to compete with TK after 50 more jets join its fleet in the coming years, and still expecting 787/350 and a E-190 orders.

He who dares and possesses a very good business plan which is properly utilised, coupled with the motivation and determination, often wins.

By the way, I'm not actually going to do this - it was just-for-fun. I like coming up with ideas, esp. involving efficiency.

[Edited 2006-01-05 03:31:11]
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TK787
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:49 am

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 10):
Hmm. How long from central IST? 1-2 hours is fine

just about, one major problem though, no subways.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 10):
But I think Turkey will be in the EU

I actually used to think that way, and gave a speech for it in college here in the US, hmmmm. let me see like 18 years ago.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 10):
If domestic flights are to operate from SAW, then I sure-as-hell think international flights would be fine.

Oh yes they do, one LCC "Corendon" flies with 737's to mainly Eindhoven.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 10):
He who dares and possesses a very good business plan which is properly utilised, coupled with the motivation and determination, often wins.

I totally agreee, just look at Jetblue.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 10):
By the way, I'm not actually going to do this - it was just-for-fun. I like coming up with ideas, esp. involving efficiency.

That is exactly why i loved your post, beacuse I am the same way.
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:29 pm

Thanks, TK.  Smile

Quoting TK787 (Reply 11):

That is exactly why i loved your post, beacuse I am the same way.

LOL!  Silly I am actually working on something else at the moment, which is aviation-related. I've had a business before which was very successful, albeit small, and non-aviation-related.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 11):
just about, one major problem though, no subways.

You worry too much! If you have low prices, people will travel. If you have everything aforementioned you're going to be fine.

I very much believe that SIMPLICITY is absolutely essential.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:03 pm

Quoting TK787 (Reply 9):
-SAW is a very small airport, and a longs way from IST for all those transfers.

It would not offer connections; instead, it'd be a point-to-point airline. It would focus on VFR traffic and tourists, although businesspeople would undoubtedly use it as-and-when necessary, although the use of secondary airports might put them off unless: a) the alternative fares are extremely expensive; b) the alternative flights aren't any good for them, time-wise or frequency-wise or whatever; c) there's no alternative; or d) for other reasons.
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BestWestern
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:58 pm

Pearson, I’ll start with this, and come back to the Turkish airport question later

Market size
It is estimated that there are approximately 3,6 million Turkish nationals living abroad of which about 3,2 million are in European countries.

Source: http://www.esiweb.org/pdf/esi_turkey_tpq_id_7.pdf

This is a tremendous market to be tapped into, especially if focused on the correct European markets:

Targeting the correct airports to fly to
Pearson, I feel that you have tried to fly to low cost airports, rather than population centres where Turkish people live – first identify where they live then find an airport.

Firstly, where do Turks live in Europe.
Host country Population of Turkish origin (in thousands)
Germany 2,014.3 (66.4%)
France 261 (8.6%)
Netherlands 260.1 (8.6%)
Austria 142.2 (4.7%)
Belgium 119.0 (3.9%)
Switzerland 79.4 (2.6%)
United Kingdom 58.2 (1.9%)
Sweden 35.7 (1.2%)
Denmark 35.7 (1.2%)
Italy 15.0 (0.5%)
Norway 10.0 (0.3%)
Total (Western Europe) 3,034.5 (100%)

Using this data, the majority of capacity should be focused on Germany, France, the Netherlands and Austria. however Belgium, Switzerland and Denmark can all be targeted with one airport each unlike Germany and France (RTM, CRL, ZRH, CPH), making these markets no brainers.
Targeting airports in larger markets

Germany
35% of the 2.014 million Turks living in Germany are settled in North Rhineland-Westphalia (Nordrhein-Westfalen). Close to 1/4 (23.1%) of Europe's Turkish immigrants thus live in this German state.
Airports: DTM CGN
Berlin with 136,400 Turks, hosts all by itself close to 5% of the Turkish immigrants in Europe.
Airport: SXF
UK
Thus, 64% of the Turkish population in the UK live in Greater London,
Airport: LTN
Scandinavian
Half of Sweden's Turks are in Stockholm, while half of Denmark's Turks live in Copenhagen.
Airports: CPH NYO
Austria
one-third (32%) of Austria's Turkish immigrants live in Vienna
Airports: BTS MUC (covering southern Germany and Western Austria)
France
a quarter of France's Turks live in and around Paris.
Airport: BVA
Switzerland
21% of the Turks who have settled in Switzerland live in the canton of Zurich. - virtually all the remainder live in German speaking Switzderland
Airport: ZRH
Data Source: http://www.flwi.ugent.be/cie/umanco/umanco3.htm
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vfw614
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:08 pm

There are countless flights by Turkish airlines from German airports. They are mostly sold through Turkish travel agents to the expat community, so the distribution channels are slightly different from the norm Also these tickets are often dirt cheap, so it is difficult to differentiate the product by competitive pricing. Ohter problems involved IMHO are that the average distances will restrict the number of daly segments per aircraft, driving up the ticket price compared to the average LCC ticket price. Also, Turkish people tend to travel with tons of luggage (also making 20min turnaround close to impossible) and if you only allow like 15kg and charge outrageous fees for additional luggage, you will not lure those folks into your planes.
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:09 pm

Thanks, B.W.

I disagree about the airports: they're easily sufficiently convenient for the respective places, although there could be, needless to say, some tweaking, like LTN instead of STN. Furthermore, they would enable even lower fares, through cost-cutting, which would enable more people to fly more often. They would also result in other benefits, such as quicker turnaround times, less lost baggage, better punctuality, etc. All key ingredents.

MMX is less than 1 hour from CPH, so that's fine.
SZG is less than 1 hour from MUC, so that's fine.
FDH is, what, 1-1.5 hours from ZRH, so that's fine.
NRN is not that far CGN and DTM, so that's fine, although DTM or CGN could be possibilities because of low-cost nature of some operators
SXF is obviously fine.
RTM is close to AMS, so I don't see why that would be a problem
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Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:13 pm

Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 15):
these tickets are often dirt cheap, so it is difficult to differentiate the product by competitive pricing.

When why can't I ever find a particularly cheap deal?

Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 15):
Ohter problems involved IMHO are that the average distances will restrict the number of daly segments per aircraft

As I said, it would be possible to, for example, fly SAW-STN thrice-daily including 1.5 hours for MX per day. That's less than other low-cost carriers but it's still six daily rotations.

BW - thanks again for your in-depth reply with lots of facts and figures. I'll have a think about the airports you recommended, particularly CPH, MUC and ZRH themselves.  Smile
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vfw614
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:22 pm

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 17):
When why can't I ever find a particularly cheap deal?

Are you shopping at your local Turkish travel agent or on the internet ? I was referring to tickets on airlines such as Onur Air, MNG Pax, Atlas, Pegasus, Sky etc.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 17):
As I said, it would be possible to, for example, fly SAW-STN thrice-daily including 1.5 hours for MX per day. That's less than other low-cost carriers but it's still six daily rotations.

It is pushing it. You should not under-estimate the problem of ground handling those tons of luggage.


In addition to BestWestern's remark on the need not to focus on LCC airports for the network, but on the areas where Turkish communities are abroad, it is also helpful to understand that a big number of those expatriates do not come Istanbul, but from Anatolia and other rural areas in the Asian part of Turkey. This is the reason why there is a growing number of flights from German airports to places like Gaziantep, Kayseri, Trabzon, Samsun, Ankara and Adana.
 
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:25 pm

OK, so concentrating on the larger, so the key, markets, you could have from SAW to:

DTM
CGN
SXF (how many live in FRA area?)
MUC
BVA/ORY/CDG (how many live in/around Strasbourg, Lyon and Nice?)
AMS
BTS
CRL/BRU

Smaller markets. So, from SAW to:

ZRH (how many live in/around GVA?)
LTN
Possibly CPH and NYO/ARN
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Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:26 pm

As I said, this is all just-for-fun, so worry not.  Smile
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Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:32 pm

Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 18):
but from Anatolia and other rural areas in the Asian part of Turkey. This is the reason why there is a growing number of flights from German airports to places like Gaziantep, Kayseri, Trabzon, Samsun, Ankara and Adana.

Yep. You're very right. But a number still come from the IST area and don't forget tourists (an ever-growing number, a good number of whom visit IST, although you do have a lot visiting the seaside places and some visiting the fantastic Cappadocia area) and businesspeople.

A start-up carrier would have to start somewhere, and for reasons of simplicity one base, i.e. SAW, would initially be best. If you start with 10 routes from 10 different airports you're going nowhere except down. Your brand would be more segmented than an orange.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
Curious
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:37 pm

how many aircraft and how much money needed to start, and what about all those other carriers like pegagus onur etc?
 
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:40 pm

Quoting Curious (Reply 22):
how many aircraft

Well, if you started with two or three routes max, you'd start with about 2.

On the key routes you'd have at least a daily frequency, although I suspect that particular routes could easily have at least a twice-daily frequency eventually, which means you'd be able to compete very well on choice/convenience/flexibility and not just price/punctuality/reliability/service, etc.
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Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:55 pm

So, as aforementioned, the key countries would be: Germany; France; Netherlands; Austria; and Belgium. So:

Germany: DTM, CGN, MUC, SXF
France: CDG/ORY
Netherlands: AMS
Austria: VIE/BTS
Belgium: BRU

There are probably other places in France which could be served, like NCE/LYS/Strasbourg, although I don't yet have the figures for those places. Likewise, I'm not too sure about the Frankfurt area of Germany.

Then you could serve countries with a smaller, but nevertheless still great, amount. So:

Switzerland: ZRH
UK: LTN (possibly other places, like EMA/BHX and LPL/MAN)
Sweden: ARN/NYO
Denmark: CPH

I'm not sure about Geneva and the French-speaking area of Switzerland.
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Curious
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:00 am

how about another name: Turk Europa?
 
eha
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:01 am

Quoting TK787 (Reply 11):
just about, one major problem though, no subways.

There is a "metro" in Istanbul, together with a tramway system.

Contrary to what has been said in one reply, internet and ADSL in Istanbul is no problem....

About the market, I would not rely on the turkish base expatriated in Europe only, but better on tourist base which all year round is visiting the country.

There are tons of italian flying to Turkey and many nationalities indeed, including russian, bulgarian, and the usual bunch of brits/spaniards/german/dutch/french...

I would also fly to Ankara, to be a bit closer to touristy spots, and strike a deal with travel agency to provide (flight+hotel) packages on resorts along the coast.
737-800 and A320 would do fine from France/Spain/GB/Germany.

Istanbul is a awesome! (just returned from it 3 days ago....).
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:03 am

Quoting Eha (Reply 26):
About the market, I would not rely on the turkish base expatriated in Europe only, but better on tourist base which all year round is visiting the country.

Indeed, hence VFR/tourists/businesspeople.

Quoting Eha (Reply 26):
Istanbul is a awesome!

Yep.  Big grin I'm hoping to live there for about 6 months.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
BestWestern
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:26 am

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 17):
CPH, MUC and ZRH themselves.

CPH and MUC will offer discounts to LCC's


Right, what about what airport to fly from in Turkey - why no domestic flights? The country is huge, and so many people still travel by coach. The rail network is a joke.
You will find that many Turkish migrant traffic to Europe dont come from Istanbul, so perhaps flying to the regional capitals will also provide significant traffic flows, especially to the DTM / CGN markets. You could have a

Istanbul - regional city - Europe - regional city - Istanbul routing sold as separate sectors, enabling a reduction in journey length and increased utilisation, as well as opening the domestic market.
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:35 am

Yes, you're totally right. I had been thinking about domestic flights, even flights to DAM, ALP, BEY, AMM, TLV and CAI (only 1.5-2 hours), but I wasn't trying to be too ambitious - hell, you need a simple plan to begin with and make sure you do that brilliantly before you consider anything else. But, yes, you're right.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
Curious
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:35 am

I think that turkish expat is a better market due to possible Visa restrictions for the turks in entering Europe?
 
BestWestern
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:39 am

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 29):
I think that turkish expat is a better market due to possible Visa restrictions for the turks in entering Europe?

Thats one problem with operating to one country from an airport in another nearby market. (BTS for Austria, for example).
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:40 am

Quoting Curious (Reply 30):
I think that turkish expat is a better market due to possible Visa restrictions for the turks in entering Europe?

When Turkey enters the EU, it'd be fantastic.

I don't understand why few people have mentioned the tourist traffic from non-Turks. There would also be some business traffic.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
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TK787
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:53 am

Quoting Eha (Reply 26):
There is a "metro" in Istanbul, together with a tramway system.

You are right about the "metro" but it has a handful of stops and it is on the European side, not the SAW side. So if you are living on the E. side and want to fly from SAW it would cost you $40 one way and there goes your LCC, and without mass transit from IST forget about people transferring from "Syria, Iran, Armenia."
 
Curious
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:57 am

I think that your quite right about the tourist market into turkey, can be quit egood esp from outside tradional areas like Germans. But dont hold your breath too much over the turkish entry. It will happen in maybe 7-8 years but at first there will probably restrictions on the movements of Turks into Europe for a few years more.

So do you think that its viable? how much money do you think it will need to start $10M?
 
Pe@rson
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:00 am

Quoting Curious (Reply 34):
So do you think that its viable?

Yes. I especially like what B.W. proposed: domestic flights too. That'd also enable higher aircraft and staff utilisation and to target other essential markets.

Quoting Curious (Reply 34):
how much money do you think it will need to start $10M?

I don't know. How much is in your bank?  Silly
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
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TK787
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:55 am

Quoting Curious (Reply 34):
I think that your quite right about the tourist market into turkey, can be quit egood esp from outside tradional areas like Germans.

About 13mil. tourists a year visit Turkey, and Germans are on top of the list, followed by Russians. As far as I know, Turkey wants to surpass Spain as a tourist destination in the next 20 years, that's the goal. On the other hand, what to do with the excess fleet during Nov-March, low season. There are ski resorts, mainly the ones on the east. And if they could be improved, now it could become a ski destination also, maybe competing with low cost resorts like the ones in Bulgaria.
 
debonair
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:21 am

Quoting TK787 (Reply 11):
Oh yes they do, one LCC "Corendon" flies with 737's to mainly Eindhoven.

No, No!! There are MANY, MANY more... Corendon will start new services soon- e.g. Paris! Offering flights to BRU, AMS etc.!
And don't forget germanwings, flying to Germany: CGN,STR,SXF and HAM- fares started as low as 6EURO ow incl. Tax!!! *special x-mas promo*


Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 20):
As I said, this is all just-for-fun, so worry not.

No! It's not... THY is palnning (strong rumors from inside the company!) to transfer its B737-400 fleet to a new Lo-Co airline based in Istanbul, as new Airbus-models will arrive...!
 
BestWestern
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:51 am

Quoting Debonair (Reply 37):
No! It's not... THY is palnning (strong rumors from inside the company!) to transfer its B737-400 fleet to a new Lo-Co airline based in Istanbul, as new Airbus-models will arrive...!

Perfect - THY are making the first mistake - thinking that this will solve their problems - what it actually does is ensure that the parent believes that they dont have to cut their own costs.

It also looks that THY are planning to protect Istanbul, and thats when the regional -> europe strategy may work - no competition - empty airports - under the THY radar. Turkey is a huge country, with a massive population that is amazingly underserved from Europe. (no Ankara -> london flights with BA for example) There is a market to be stimulated, and stolen from the coach operators.

For example - http://www.metroturizm.com.tr/ is just one of the Turkish coach companies who I have met recently - they carry 8.4 million people annually and only have a 10% market share. Total long haul domestic coach business = 84 million... capture 5% = 4.5m passengers.
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
Humberside
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RE: A Potential New Turkish Low-cost Carrier

Fri Jan 06, 2006 4:32 am

Musn't forget the potential of the coastal destinations - Antalya, Izmir, Bodrum and Dalaman.

Taking the UK-Dalaman market as an example, most UK airports have at least one summer charter flight there. Comparing it to a market with similar frequencies such as Larnaca, Paphos or Malta, there may be potential once or twice weekly scheduled flights from the larger UK airports. I know KTHY have some flights continuing to Northern Cyprus, but hw many people in the UK have heard of them?
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