manni
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ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 8:55 pm

Interesting read here. ANA is sying that it will phase out it's 747s and replace them with the 777-300ER. ANA is also saying that they have no plans to aquire the A380 in the near term, but if it feels they can't compete with those who do operate them, they will aquire them. No mention of the 747-800 at all here.

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...oor+open+for+A380+despite+777.html
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MidnightMike
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:21 pm

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
Interesting read here. ANA is sying that it will phase out it's 747s and replace them with the 777-300ER. ANA is also saying that they have no plans to aquire the A380 in the near term, but if it feels they can't compete with those who do operate them, they will aquire them. No mention of the 747-800 at all here.


You read the story too quickly, though, in your defense, it was confusing.



Quote:
“If as other carriers introduce the A380 we feel we can’t compete, then we will acquire it, but the medium-term plan is not to order the aircraft,” he says.

In other words, ANA is playing it smart, if the ANA flys as published, they'll consider ordering it, but, as this point, there is no plan, as you noticed, ANA never said that can not compete against an A380 carrier.....
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:25 pm

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 1):
You read the story too quickly, though, in your defense, it was confusing.

No he didn't - he said exactly the same thing as you "they have no plans to aquire the A380 in the near term, but if it feels they can't compete with those who do operate them, they will aquire them."  wink 
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Thorben
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:40 pm

I guess in the long run the Japanese carriers can't go around buying the A380 to handle increasing demand on routes with slot-restricted airports.
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MidnightMike
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:43 pm

Scbrimi

You added the word near, in fact, if you search the word near, it never appears..... Smile

[quote]ANA president and chief executive Mineo Yamamoto told Flight International at a Star Alliance chief executives’ gathering in Montreal last month that its medium-term fleet plan calls for the phase-out of the 747s and replacement by the 777-300ER due to the latter’s superior efficiency. Although it has no plans to acquire the A380 in the medium term, Yamamoto does not rule out an order for the aircraft in the longer term. “If as other carriers introduce the A380 we feel we can’t compete, then we will acquire it, but the medium-term plan is not to order the aircraft,” he says.[quote]
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Francoflier
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:46 pm

I still think many potential buyers are waiting for the A380 to enter commercial service to see how it 'behaves', especially regarding economics and dispatch reliability compared to what Airbus claims.
Especially since no aircraft has ever stirred so much controversy, rumors and hearsay as this one...

Airbus has not been building a good reputation regarding that during their last aircraft launch (A340-600/500)...
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Thorben
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:54 pm

Quoting Francoflier (Reply 5):
I still think many potential buyers are waiting for the A380 to enter commercial service to see how it 'behaves', especially regarding economics and dispatch reliability compared to what Airbus claims.
Especially since no aircraft has ever stirred so much controversy, rumors and hearsay as this one...

Airbus has not been building a good reputation regarding that during their last aircraft launch (A340-600/500)...

I agree. And the delay of the A380 has not improved the reputation too much.
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N79969
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:09 pm

I do not think this represents a positive development for the A380...but not a negative one either. ANA is doing the same thing as Cathay Pacific, BA, and a number of airlines which is to wait and see if the A380 operators are able to skim the premium, high yield traffic from non-operators.
 
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:10 pm

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 4):
You added the word near, in fact, if you search the word near, it never appears.....

We seem to be talking slightly at cross purposes - I cut and paste directly from Manni's opening post, not the link.
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MidnightMike
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:16 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8):
We seem to be talking slightly at cross purposes - I cut and paste directly from Manni's opening post, not the link.

Scbrimi

Oh, yeah, if cut & paste from Manni's quote, which was wrong in the first place, I understand how you made the mistake.... Best to go to the link, as what Manni said was wrong.....

No worries.....
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manni
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:28 pm

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 9):
Best to go to the link, as what Manni said was wrong.....

So the article says medium term, and I wrote near term. Big deal, and yes it was unintentionally. Near and medium are open to interpretation, and not limited to a certain amount of time.

We could however assume that 'medium' here is something in the vicinity of 3 years. In 3 years time the A380 will have flown 2 years in commercial service, I'd guess that's a reasonable amount of time for ANA to make up their balance, wether they can stay competitive or not without the A380. So 'medium' here could be as little as 3 years away.... Hmmm, that's pretty near, not?  Wink
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Halibut
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:53 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 10):
We could however assume that 'medium' here is something in the vicinity of 3 years. In 3 years time the A380 will have flown 2 years in commercial service, I'd guess that's a reasonable amount of time for ANA to make up their balance, wether they can stay competitive or not without the A380. So 'medium' here could be as little as 3 years away.... Hmmm, that's pretty near, not?

Long term could also mean they will not consider the A380 ?! Since Boeing should annouce there next aircraft Y3 sometime next decade . In the Medium term ANA may consider the WhaleJet since there will not be another aircraft availible . ANA , being a Japanese airline will have a headsups on Boeing's next move !

Just my 2 cents .

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DAL767400ER
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:23 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 3):
I guess in the long run the Japanese carriers can't go around buying the A380 to handle increasing demand on routes with slot-restricted airports.

True, but at the same time, you also have to consider that more and more people are using the Shinkansen bullet trains, giving Japanese Railways a constantly growing percentage vs airlines. There are more trains, and they even get faster still. And with all the hassle of driving to the airport, going through security and other stuff, there is a chance that neither JAL nor ANA will need the A380s capacity, as bullet trains have caught such a large percentage of traffic that a 773, or perhaps even a 772 would be more than enough. And international-wise, there are not that many routes that require an A380's capacity, and with ANA going towards three fleet members (737NG/787/777), IMHO it is doubtful they would then add a 4th subfleet again.
 
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:30 pm

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 12):
True, but at the same time, you also have to consider that more and more people are using the Shinkansen bullet trains, giving Japanese Railways a constantly growing percentage vs airlines

Seeing how ANA talks about 'other carriers introduce the A380', I think they are talking about purchasing the A380 for their international network, should the need arise.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 12):
And international-wise, there are not that many routes that require an A380's capacity,

Many of these not so many routes will link with Tokyo.
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mohamed
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:43 pm

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 12):
And international-wise, there are not that many routes that require an A380's capacity, and with ANA going towards three fleet members (737NG/787/777), IMHO it is doubtful they would then add a 4th subfleet again.

You have to remember that Japan's Airport are quite slot restricted. Remember that Airlines like LH are trying to get Slots at Narita for years now, to make the Muenchen flight daily. The A380 is maybe about 60 or 70% bigger then the B773ER!

The article didn't colmpletley rule out the B747-8. Also it hasn't mentioned it, it maybe telling Boeing "propose it to us".

Quoting Halibut (Reply 11):
Since Boeing should annouce there next aircraft Y3 sometime next decade

Isn't Y3 a B773ER-B747-8 size aircraft? Also i don't think it will come soon, it would compketley kill off the B748
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bmacleod
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:51 pm

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
ANA is sying that it will phase out it's 747s and replace them with the 777-300ER.

No surprise being a STAR member, they would follow AC. Come to think of it with ANA also ordering the 787, they will have very similar fleets...
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MidnightMike
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:52 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 10):
So the article says medium term, and I wrote near term. Big deal, and yes it was unintentionally. Near and medium are open to interpretation, and not limited to a certain amount of time.

We could however assume that 'medium' here is something in the vicinity of 3 years. In 3 years time the A380 will have flown 2 years in commercial service, I'd guess that's a reasonable amount of time for ANA to make up their balance, wether they can stay competitive or not without the A380. So 'medium' here could be as little as 3 years away.... Hmmm, that's pretty near, not?

You are making your own news, medium term is a big difference from short term, and no we can not assume that medium means "3" years, as you said, it is open to interpretation.

All ANA said is that they are going to take the look & see approach with the A380, which is a good business decision.

[quote]ANA president and chief executive Mineo Yamamoto told Flight International at a Star Alliance chief executives’ gathering in Montreal last month that its medium-term fleet plan calls for the phase-out of the 747s and replacement by the 777-300ER due to the latter’s superior efficiency. Although it has no plans to acquire the A380 in the medium term, Yamamoto [b]does not rule out an order for the aircraft in the longer term.[/b] “If as other carriers introduce the A380 we feel we can’t compete, then we will acquire it, but the medium-term plan is not to order the aircraft,” he says.[quote]
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manni
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RE: ANA And The A380

Thu Jan 05, 2006 11:57 pm

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 16):
medium term is a big difference from short term

Did I say short term? I think I wrote near term. That's also different, short term seems a lot nearer than near term... but near term sems a lot nearer to medium term than short term seems to be to medium term.  crazy 
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Thorben
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:12 am

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 12):

Interesting points. The Shinkansen really have an interesting network. But I was rather talking about international flights. Like those to FRA, LHR, and North America.
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Halibut
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:13 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 14):
Isn't Y3 a B773ER-B747-8 size aircraft? Also i don't think it will come soon, it would compketley kill off the B748

You'll really have to ask the Z-man that " Zvezda" . I'm not sure . However , I do recall him saying it could be around 450 pax .. So you are in fact correct !

Boeing's Y-3 aircraft " 450 pax " could hit the A380 hard , due to its far superior ecomomics and flexablity .

Halibut
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Thorben
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 19):
Boeing's Y-3 aircraft " 450 pax " could hit the A380 hard , due to its far superior ecomomics and flexablity .

Not enough pax and no superior economics.
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manni
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:19 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 19):
Boeing's Y-3 aircraft " 450 pax " could hit the A380 hard , due to its far superior ecomomics and flexablity .

No offense intended but... perhaps it should be a good idea to wait until more, or even anything is known about the so called 'Y3', before talking about his superior performance and flexability, not?
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N79969
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:24 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 21):
No offense intended but... perhaps it should be a good idea to wait until more, or even anything is known about the so called 'Y3', before talking about his superior performance and flexability, not?

I agree with Manni on this one. The Y3 is a concept rather than the design for an airplane.

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 16):
You are making your own news, medium term is a big difference from short term, and no we can not assume that medium means "3" years, as you said, it is open to interpretation.

All ANA said is that they are going to take the look & see approach with the A380, which is a good business decision.

Agree with Mike. I do not see a difference between what they are saying and what British Airways and Cathay Pacific have stated about the A380. For ANA their chief concern must be the actions of JAL.
 
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:25 am

I've yet to see any airline ruling out the A380 in the longer term.

ANA & JAL don't seem unlikely customers.

At some point those 100 747s have to go.

Fuel is expensive, slots restricted

Traffic will more then double during this period.

Hard to avoid IMO.
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Halibut
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:37 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 20):
Not enough pax and no superior economics.



Quoting Manni (Reply 21):
No offense intended but... perhaps it should be a good idea to wait until more, or even anything is known about the so called 'Y3', before talking about his superior performance and flexability, not?



Quoting N79969 (Reply 22):
I agree with Manni on this one. The Y3 is a concept rather than the design for an airplane.

I picked a bad day to quit alcohol !  drunk 

I do not disagree with the your replys . I just feel that if Boeing goes forward with a 450 pax aircraft, say 10 years from now, it will be a threat to the current A380-800 .

Just my 2 cents .

Halibut
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Thorben
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:41 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 24):
I do not disagree with the your replys . I just feel that if Boeing goes forward with a 450 pax aircraft, say 10 years from now, it will be a threat to the current A380-800 .

Ten years will allow a lot of new technology, but 450 pax will still not be 550 pax by then.
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whitehatter
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 25):
Ten years will allow a lot of new technology, but 450 pax will still not be 550 pax by then.

if anything they would want to see what happens with the A389 when it finally appears. High capacity versions for their routes which could justify it.

hence no interest today but maybe in the future, if Airbus can offer a suitable version for their heaviest traffic routes. It's basically a non-story which just confirms that the A380 has plenty of 'watchers' who are waiting to see what happens.

The same was definitely true of another manufacturer which made grand claims for an aircraft which offered a substantial capacity jump, with Boeing and the 747.
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N79969
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:57 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 23):
I've yet to see any airline ruling out the A380 in the longer term.

ANA & JAL don't seem unlikely customers.

At some point those 100 747s have to go.

Fuel is expensive, slots restricted

Traffic will more then double during this period.

Hard to avoid IMO.

Some of the reasons you cite seem like reasons to actually not buy the A380. If the price of fuel is going up, you don't want to buy a fleet of the largest gas tanks in the world to fill up everyday especially when high fuel prices exert down ward pressure on the demand for travel...and you are based in a country in which the population is about to start shrinking.

If the wake turbulence issue is not resolved, would you want to burn through two slots for one aircraft? Japan is worse than most place when it comes to slot shortages.

Hard to avoid? I think it could be a bullet to dodge frankly.

What ANA and others seem to be saying is that if they are cornered in the competition for premium customers and the A380 is the way out, we will probably buy it. Otherwise...let's talk about the nice wines from around Tolouse now.

The A380 is not a "killer app" airplane that airline are airlines are grasping for in a high fuel cost environment.
 
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:05 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 24):
I do not disagree with the your replys . I just feel that if Boeing goes forward with a 450 pax aircraft, say 10 years from now, it will be a threat to the current A380-800 .

Yes, but you do have to remember that JL and NH use their 747-400Ds and 747SR in a high density configuration. I believe on the 744D, those figures could come to up to 550 per aircraft, 5 less than the standard capacity of a single three class A380. Surely they could cram in over 800 people in an A380, but beyond could be overkill. I believe they even have their 777-300s configured with almost the same capacity as their current VLA fleet.

I personally don't really see both ordering any new VLAs in the future. JL has posted a loss in the last quater IIRC and in any case, both are loyal Boeing customers (with the exception of the A320s and A321s at NH and the A300 JL obtained after the merger with JAS). I could see them going for the 747-8 in a domestic version, configured for up to 650 to 700 people in a high density configuration.

[Edited 2006-01-05 17:09:19]
 
aerosol
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:07 am

N79969:
You have not heard about the theory of econmies of scale, have you?

The lets talk about nice operating systems from Seattle, or nice mobiles from Chicago  Wink
 
Halibut
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 1:56 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 25):
Ten years will allow a lot of new technology, but 450 pax will still not be 550 pax by then.



Quoting LTU932 (Reply 28):
Yes, but you do have to remember that JL and NH use their 747-400Ds and 747SR in a high density configuration. I believe on the 744D, those figures could come to up to 550 per aircraft, 5 less than the standard capacity of a single three class A380. Surely they could cram in over 800 people in an A380, but beyond could be overkill. I believe they even have their 777-300s configured with almost the same capacity as their current VLA fleet.

I personally don't really see both ordering any new VLAs in the future. JL has posted a loss in the last quater IIRC and in any case, both are loyal Boeing customers (with the exception of the A320s and A321s at NH and the A300 JL obtained after the merger with JAS). I could see them going for the 747-8 in a domestic version, configured for up to 650 to 700 people in a high density configuration.

What will take place in the coming years will most certainly be interesting to see what materializes in commercial aviation . The a380 , 777-200LR & 787 now offer airlines many more choices on how or what they can to do regarding flights & what they can offer pax ..

As to Japanese airlines going a380 ??? I am not educated enough in the aviation field to say for sure what will happen . However , I will comment on my flights to Shanghai from JFK on JAL .

From JFK to Tokyo the plane was full . The 747 had economy on the upper deck & a large business section on the main deck . However, the flight from Tokyo to Shanghai the JAL 747 was NO where near full . I had the entire rear part of the plane to my self . No joke !

Halibut

[Edited 2006-01-05 18:30:19]
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Stitch
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:07 am

How efficient would an A380 be for a short-haul run like HND-FUK? NH and JL went with the 777-300 because it carries 501 folks (per Boeing) in a single-class config which is close to what the 74SR and 744D models did, but offering better efficiency.

And like BA and VS at LHR, JL and NH enjoy at NRT somewhat "protected" status when it comes to slots - in other words, they don't need to worry about keeping the slots they currently have.

Also, NH is downgauging their international fleet from 744s to 773ERs, so evidently they feel they have more then enough slots to meet current traffic demands. And if they end up needing more space, well there is the 747-8 ready and willing to give them an extra 50-100 seats across four classes (First/Business/Premium Economy/Economy).

So yes, the A380 could fit NH's and JL's capacity needs and desires down the road (like 2015), but by then Boeing will probably be in the final stages of preparing to launch Y3 and they could be launch customers for that program just as they were for Y2 (the 787).
 
N79969
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:16 am

Quoting Aerosol (Reply 29):
N79969:
You have not heard about the theory of econmies of scale, have you?

If you read my post carefully you will see that I implicitly say that the economies of scale argument starts coming apart in some circumstances...

Much more importantly than what I have to say companies such as JAL, ANA, BA, and CX which should have something to gain from economies-of-scale passed on launch customer discounts and still are relatively cool on the A380. The most enthusiam for the A380 seems to be at FedEx.

[Edited 2006-01-05 18:26:36]
 
astuteman
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 2:37 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 24):
I just feel that if Boeing goes forward with a 450 pax aircraft, say 10 years from now, it will be a threat to the current A380-800 .

FWIW Halibut, I don't think the current A380 will even be on offer 10 years from now. The A380's being offered in 10 years time will be a much different (and much more effective) aircraft.
A
 
Halibut
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:23 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 33):
FWIW Halibut, I don't think the current A380 will even be on offer 10 years from now. The A380's being offered in 10 years time will be a much different (and much more effective) aircraft.
A

True,
However , its sounds like an exspensive endeavour for a small market . Maybe not ! The A380 being offered currently will be delivered into early next decade . Boeing will have the luxury of seeing & getting a better idea of the future aviation market needs in 5 years & applying the most modern technology in a VLA aircraft , just around the time the WhaleJet may start to get traction . As impressive as the A380 is , it's almost a late 90's aircraft . Interesting times in commercial aviation !

Halibut
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mohamed
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:36 am

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 28):

I personally don't really see both ordering any new VLAs in the future. JL has posted a loss in the last quater IIRC and in any case, both are loyal Boeing customers (with the exception of the A320s and A321s at NH and the A300 JL obtained after the merger with JAS). I could see them going for the 747-8 in a domestic version, configured for up to 650 to 700 people in a high density configuration.

I diasagree Partly. It was mentioned earlier that trains are gaining market share in Japan. Add to that the B773 seems just perfect as a VLA for domestic use. I don't think going with B748 would be a wise chioche , and it would only seat about 600-620pax. BTW , are there no LCC's in Japan?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
but by then Boeing will probably be in the final stages of preparing to launch Y3

I believe they will go A380 a bit earlier, and that if they launch it in 2015 then it will fly in about 2020 and it won't carry 550pax (probably).
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FCKC
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:38 am

The strategic year for the A380 will be 2007 , after one year of full scheduled services.We all will see how it performs.
Do not expect too many orders for it in 2006 , perhaps except Jet Aw.All not yet A380 customer airlines will wait after one year in commercial service , before going ahead or not.
I am pretty sure , even if the 747-8 is not very comparable to the European manufacturer product , Boeing will work very hard in 2006 to secure launch passenger version customers, before airlines not yet A380 customers will NOT become , before they see the A380 is a very capable machine , and a very economical one to exploit.
..........In fact all will depend if Airbus is really 100% exact to deliver the plane as they promised they will do.
The reliabily of Airbus will depend of this fact.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:47 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 23):
ANA & JAL don't seem unlikely customers.

At some point those 100 747s have to go.

Fuel is expensive, slots restricted

Traffic will more then double during this period.

Hard to avoid IMO.

It doesn't happen very often, but here I have to agree with you.
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astuteman
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:54 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 34):
As impressive as the A380 is , it's almost a late 90's aircraft

Even though the A380 is my personal favourite, I have to say I agree with you, hence my comment.
I don't think Airbus can afford not to apply some of the new technologies, even if its just the new gen engines, and exchanging the metal in some areas for a less dense, more modern alloy.
A
 
Dougloid
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 4:21 am

Quoting Aerosol (Reply 29):
9:
You have not heard about the theory of econmies of scale, have you?

Are you speaking about White Star Lines and the RMS Titanic?
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 5:44 am

Quoting Francoflier (Reply 5):
Especially since no aircraft has ever stirred so much controversy, rumors and hearsay as this one...

...for a Frenchman, you seem to have a rather short memory:

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LTU932
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 6:08 am

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 35):
Add to that the B773 seems just perfect as a VLA for domestic use. I don't think going with B748 would be a wise chioche , and it would only seat about 600-620pax. BTW , are there no LCC's in Japan?

You've got a point. BTW, I was always under the impression that VLAs are only aircraft like the 747 or A380. I'm still new to that term, so I'd appreciate if someone could explain it.
 
ikramerica
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 6:18 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 39):
Are you speaking about White Star Lines and the RMS Titanic?

most major cruise lines have ships larger than this these days.

it was poor design and poor navigation that caused the wreck, not a bad concept.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
mbj2000
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 8:08 am

Has anyone considered the fact that it was a japanese(!) CEO who made that comment. Japanese would never say a direct 'no' but definitely mean it.

Actually his comments could be translated to "no way! we won't buy the A380!"

On the other hand if his japanese competitor suddenly decides to buy a couple of them, you can be sure they will order it 7 days later as well!  Smile
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DfwRevolution
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 10:55 am

Quoting MBJ2000 (Reply 43):
Has anyone considered the fact that it was a japanese(!) CEO who made that comment. Japanese would never say a direct 'no' but definitely mean it.

IMO, this is no change in ANA's stance, and thus, not "news" at all. There position has long been, they will continue evaluating the A380 during and after EOS. If need arises, they will order it.

Tantamount to WN and second fleet types.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 25):
Ten years will allow a lot of new technology, but 450 pax will still not be 550 pax by then.

If the 747-8 arrives as promised, it will do so in less than five.

The A380-800 configuration has noteable compromises that a whole range of aircraft could exploit in the future.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 20):
Quoting Halibut (Reply 19):
Boeing's Y-3 aircraft " 450 pax " could hit the A380 hard , due to its far superior ecomomics and flexablity .

Not enough pax and no superior economics.

You need to refresh your 747 vs. A380 numbers. The 747-8 should offer comperable or superior seat/mile economics despite reduced seating capacity. The A388's edge is revenue area and Boeing is even gunning that.

Quoting Manni (Reply 21):
perhaps it should be a good idea to wait until more, or even anything is known about the so called 'Y3', before talking about his superior performance and flexability, not?

Waiting is exactly what ANA will do.

If you are ANA, the fact that Boeing has allocated any sort of concept, timetable, or designation toward an aircraft that could potentially appeal much more than the A388 further strenghtens the "wait-and-see" mentality.

Quoting FCKC (Reply 36):
The strategic year for the A380 will be 2007

Why wasn't 2005? This year was a record-breaking sales year for both Airbus and Boeing, and yet the A388 was remarkably quiet. This despite successful roll-out and first flight.

I think we will see a much more conservative number of A380 ordered in the future with an outlook market of approx 350-450 units, not in the volume Airbus initially predicted.
 
manni
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 11:32 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 44):
Waiting is exactly what ANA will do.

If you are ANA, the fact that Boeing has allocated any sort of concept, timetable, or designation toward an aircraft that could potentially appeal much more than the A388 further strenghtens the "wait-and-see" mentality.

With the 748 recently launched an eventual succesor could be atleast 10 years away. I doubt ANA will wait for that. Boeings current answer to the A380 is the 748. A 'potentially better aircraft', 10 years down the road, is no surprise. And an even better aircraft 25 years down the road, an eventual succesor to the A380 will be even better. At some point airlines will need to order, should the need arise. Can you blame the 727 operators for purchasing the aircraft when it was the hottest thing around, only to find out 25 years later that the 737-800 is a much better aircraft?
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N79969
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 11:57 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 45):
With the 748 recently launched an eventual succesor could be atleast 10 years away. I doubt ANA will wait for that. Boeings current answer to the A380 is the 748. A 'potentially better aircraft', 10 years down the road, is no surprise.

Let's think this through. Why would ANA buy the A380? Are the lower seat mile costs the big draw?

I think the answer is clearly "no." If that were really a high priority, they would not be phasing out their late vintage 747-400 fleet in favor of 777-300. So I do not think it is a matter of them of choosing the A380 now versus a Boeing 747 successor 10 years down the road. The underlying necessity for a very high-capacity people mover is not apparent.

The main driver would be some premium amenities available only in the A380 that can pull away ANA's best customers that cannot be replicated in cheaper to operate B777-300ER or B747-400. I think A380 operators are going to do some really cool stuff in the A380 but whether it will be ultimately compelling enough to force the competition into also buying A380s is a big question. Airbus is not playing up the movie theatres and gyms as much these days.

[Edited 2006-01-06 04:22:41]
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:18 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 45):
should the need arise

Did you feel the need to insert the last word, because you basically repeated verbatum what I said:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 44):
There position has long been, they will continue evaluating the A380 during and after EOS. If need arises, they will order it.
 
N79969
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:41 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 22):
For ANA their chief concern must be the actions of JAL.



Quoting Aerosol (Reply 29):
N79969:
You have not heard about the theory of econmies of scale, have you?

A thought just to occured to me. As I said above, ANA's chief competitive challenge is JAL. If JAL goes for A380s so they can offer provide some unique premium amenity, then ANA will likely have to follow suit to keep their core customer base (Japanese business travelers) happy.

But this would ultimately create a nightmarish scenario for both airlines. The A380 would be such a jump in capacity that it would drive yields into the toilet. This is the ugly side of economies of scale. I do not think JAL and ANA would provoke one another by being the first to go for the A380.

If it happens, the spur to buy the A380 would have to come from the outside (Singapore or Korean Air etc)and then both ANA and JAL may be pushed into the waiting arms of Airbus. Even then, I think both would want to have only small fleets to avoid previously mentioned capacity glut and resulting war.
 
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distanthorizon
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RE: ANA And The A380

Fri Jan 06, 2006 6:45 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 7):
I do not think this represents a positive development for the A380...

Really?! When ANA is admitting it may buy the plane, then anything is possible!... Maybe Israel is next!

Quoting Mohamed (Reply 14):
The article didn't colmpletley rule out the B747-8. Also it hasn't mentioned it, it maybe telling Boeing "propose it to us".

I believe Boeing already did, long ago. ANA is (was?) one of Boeing best hopes...
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