JAM747
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Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 1:24 am

Is there any possibility that there might be any more versions of the 747 after the 747-800? There have been many thoughts that a large twin will eventually replace the 747. Is it possible that further advances in engine technology and design change warrant further updated versions of the 747?
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 1:27 am

After the 747-8, I would like to see Boeing really counter the A380 by making a triple-decker. It should have two full decks, and a third partial deck. It should also have an elevator for the handicapped.
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garpd
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 1:27 am

Absolutely. I can't see it being any more competative as the 748 will get.

In my opinion, twins will become the dominant aircraft type over the years to come. With only a small percentage of aircraft being quads.

I am of course talking about 20 or so years down the line.
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jwenting
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 1:29 am

Of course it could be the last version. It could also not be the last version, only time will tell.
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Mir
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 1:44 am

I could see the chance for a small stretch.

-Mir
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Oykie
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 1:49 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 4):
I could see the chance for a small stretch.

doesn't a stretch require a new wing ala the 747-500X and -600X which was proposed some years ago? I do believe sadly that one day the Jumbojet will be replaced by a super Quad as it will reduce fuel consumption.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
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Stitch
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 2:34 am

The only thing I could really see would be a shrink to make a ULR plane ala the 747-500, but using still more composites and such to make the plane as light as possible, so you could carry 300+ folks and make the market economically viable.

I tend to agree with those who believe "the future" is large twins, leaving the A380 series to handle the truly huge loads (700-1000) between a "handful" (say 25-50) of the worlds largest hubs.

I'm not sure how much longer you could make a 777 without having to add fueselage gear bogies, but if you widened it a bit to a three-aisled plane and made it out of composites to keep the weight within the ability of two 125-135K engines to handle, you could carry the equivalent of a 747-8 in pax and payload.
 
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 2:43 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
I'm not sure how much longer you could make a 777 without having to add fuselage gear bogies, but if you widened it a bit to a three-aisled plane and made it out of composites to keep the weight within the ability of two 125-135K engines to handle, you could carry the equivalent of a 747-8 in pax and payload.

Perhaps you just described what will eventually become Boeing's Y3? From my understanding, widening the fuselage is almost as expensive as designing a plane from scratch. That is why the A350 fuselage has the same fuselage diameter as the A330/A340, right?
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
JAM747
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 2:49 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
The only thing I could really see would be a shrink to make a ULR plane ala the 747-500, but using still more composites and such to make the plane as light as possible, so you could carry 300+ folks and make the market economically viable.

I thought about that as well. Maybe a longer range version of the 747-8 will be possible with more weight saving materials or/and more efficient engines. I wonder if a fuselage length of the current 744 with the revised wing and new engines of the 748 allow a version that could do 9000 to 10000 nm range? If possible that could really be a good niche.
 
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 3:16 am

Quoting JAM747 (Reply 8):
I thought about that as well. Maybe a longer range version of the 747-8 will be possible with more weight saving materials or/and more efficient engines. I wonder if a fuselage length of the current 744 with the revised wing and new engines of the 748 allow a version that could do 9000 to 10000 nm range? If possible that could really be a good niche.

Basically it would require a belly tank, a more efficient/powerful Genex, and some other weight savings. But ultimately, it wouldn't do 10000nm. I think it is plausible for a 748I-LR, but would have similar prospects to the 744ER before it.
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Oykie
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 3:16 am

Quoting JAM747 (Reply 8):
Maybe a longer range version of the 747-8 will be possible with more weight saving materials or/and more efficient engines.

That would have been a fabulous plane. Although I believe it want happen, As Boeing said there was not enough market for both Airbus and Boeing to develop a BIG widebody. And they use the collapse of MDC and Lockheed from civil airplane production due to competing head on with the DC-10 and L-1011.

Perhaps they could have done more to reduce weight, but they must have calculated that the R&D wouldn't justify it. But I agree it would have been an amazing machine
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
Tom12
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 3:26 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 1):
After the 747-8, I would like to see Boeing really counter the A380 by making a triple-decker. It should have two full decks, and a third partial deck. It should also have an elevator for the handicapped

Yeah i agree, that would be pretty cool. I think there will be more versions!

Tom
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flydreamliner
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 3:28 am

I don't see Boeing stretching 747 any bigger than 748. I mean, certainly the ability is there to drag it bigger, but I doubt they will. I don't think Boeing sees that big of a market for aircraft the size of A380. If you remember, McDonnell Douglas proposed an aircraft almost identical to the A380 10 years ago, and couldn't find a single buyer (MD-12). There is a limited market for it, Airbus wouldn't have built it if there weren't. Boeing claims a competitive advantage in per seat mile fuel cost with the 748 over A380. I'm sure A380 will carve out a niche for itself in the market, but the 748 is more of a stop-gap, like the 73G, to hold over customers who already fly 747s, and are looking to replace aging birds and expand capacity and efficiency, but ultimately, it's to hold over until Y3 comes around. The question I have is what Y3 is going to look like, whether it will be a twin or 4 engine plane, and single or double decker. That may itself be dictated by the success of 380.
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DfwRevolution
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 3:39 am

The 747-8 is almost certainly the end of the line for the 747 series.

The 747 is most structurally efficent at the -8 fuselage length, and any further begins to cause logistic complications and structural inefficency. Boeing wants to consolidate to a three-product family, which at some point, means an all-new product to merge the 777 and 747 series.

In 2020, I think we will see some approximation of:

Y1 737NG replacement
100 seats ?
150 seats
200 seats
250 seats

Y2 787
787-3/8 225 seats
787-9 275 seats
787-10 325 seats

Y3 777/747 replacement
375 seats
475 seats
575 seats ?
 
Oykie
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 3:50 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 13):
Y1 737NG replacement
100 seats ?
150 seats
200 seats
250 seats

Y2 787
787-3/8 225 seats
787-9 275 seats
787-10 325 seats

Y3 777/747 replacement
375 seats
475 seats
575 seats ?

Looking at those numbers I just realize that the 787 will cover the smallest pocket sizewise ranging from 100 to 575 seats.

Y1 - 150 seats between smallest/largest
Y2 - 100 seats between smallest/largest
Y3 - 200 seats between smallest/largest.

Could there be an additional 787 as a 767-200 replacement (787-7), and an 777-300 replacement in the (787-11) Could this be done economically?
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
flydreamliner
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 3:59 am

I'm guessing Boeing will be cautious to see where the demand is in overlap. I wouldn't expect to see a 250 seat Y1 right away (read 753), and a larger and smaller 787 are both possible, if demand is there.
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kc135topboom
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 5:07 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 2):
In my opinion, twins will become the dominant aircraft type over the years to come. With only a small percentage of aircraft being quads.

Isn't it that way today? The only commerical 4 engine jets, still in production is the B-747, A-340, and A-380. Everything else is a twin.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
The only thing I could really see would be a shrink to make a ULR plane ala the 747-500, but using still more composites and such to make the plane as light as possible, so you could carry 300+ folks and make the market economically viable.

Why? Doesn't the B-777-300ER fit into that group?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
I tend to agree with those who believe "the future" is large twins, leaving the A380 series to handle the truly huge loads (700-1000) between a "handful" (say 25-50) of the worlds largest hubs.

I agree, too. But, I really don't see a 700-1000 seater coming. If they did build it, I know my bag will always be the last one unloaded. The A-380-900 is already beyond the capabilities of 99.5% of the airports in the world. Even today, you really don't see to many airports jumping up to do the airfield modifications for the -900s smaller brother, the A-380-800.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
I'm not sure how much longer you could make a 777 without having to add fueselage gear bogies, but if you widened it a bit to a three-aisled plane and made it out of composites to keep the weight within the ability of two 125-135K engines to handle, you could carry the equivalent of a 747-8 in pax and payload.

A wider airplane is just as difficult to support as a longer one (like the A-380). Most taxiways are only 75' or 100' wide, runways 150' to 200'. With the required safety areas, these are up to 500' wide. A wider fuselage means a wider wing span, too. With the wing span of the A-380 (261' 8") and the B-747-800 (224' 7"), these airplane are about all you can stuff into the airport parking 262' X 262' box.
 
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 5:44 am

It is my true belief that the super-sized aircraft is on its way out, and that mid-size to moderately large extra-long range flights, flying more often are the future. It's becoming the most economically viable option. Just look how much money has to be spent to make it possible for airports to accomodate the 380. Aircraft like the 777 and 787, A330, and to some degree, A340 are backbones of long range international travel. A380 and 748 are niche players, small number unique role aircraft. I'm kind of impressed A380 even got built, I think it's really cool that they could go for that, and find enough airlines willing to do it too, even if I don't believe it's terribly practical.
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AvObserver
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 5:53 am

Yes, I think the 747-8 will likely be THE LAST 747 variant. While a further stretch is feasible, I highly doubt it would be undertaken, unless BCA did it for only a freighter version. The only way to keep its basic vintage design viable is to position it in a unique market niche as they've done. Too close to the A380-800 in size makes no sense, at least for a passenger version. The A380 owns the 500+ passenger airliner sector and I don't believe a 747 to closely approach that capacity is reasonable, given the age of its basic design. The 747-8 splits the capacity difference between the A346/773ER "mini-jumbos" and the A388. giving it a niche to itself (I reiterate that Airbus's proposed A380-700 shrink will not be launched' due to excessive weight statistics for its size). However, BCA needs to start design on its own "superjumbo" because air travel growth will in time increase the need for A380 sized airliners and there's no reasonable growth left in the 747 design after this new stretch.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 6:00 am

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 14):
Looking at those numbers I just realize that the 787 will cover the smallest pocket sizewise ranging from 100 to 575 seats.

Y1 - 150 seats between smallest/largest
Y2 - 100 seats between smallest/largest

Y1 will likely span a greater market because hints point at multiple wing variants. It may be "one and a half" aircraft in reality.

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 14):
Could there be an additional 787 as a 767-200 replacement (787-7)

Almost certainly not. As the early availability of growth variants shows, the optimal point for the 787 appears to be in the 787-9 to 787-10 range. A shink of the -8 would not have impressive economics.

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 14):
and an 777-300 replacement in the (787-11)

It's certainly possible, although taking the 787 into the A346/773ER range would require substantial redesign. The conceptual -10 is as large as the 787 can be taken without landing gear, wing, and propulsion modification.
 
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 6:13 am

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 14):
Looking at those numbers I just realize that the 787 will cover the smallest pocket sizewise ranging from 100 to 575 seats.

Y1 - 150 seats between smallest/largest
Y2 - 100 seats between smallest/largest
Y3 - 200 seats between smallest/largest.

Those numbers are not in the same class format. Y1 is being given in 1 or 2 class and Y2 and Y3 are given in 3 class. 2 class Y2 lower bound is ~280 and upper bound is 410-420. 1 class is ~350 and 3 class ~500. These numbers affected depending on economy seating being in 8 or 9 across.
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Oykie
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 7:41 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 20):
Those numbers are not in the same class format.

No, I was aware of that, but still it shows that the range of 787 (Y2) planes are far less than a possible Y1 and Y2. That made me wonder whether a 787-7 or 787-11 or both would be available.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
mbj2000
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 7:52 am

Mine is it not!
If people will be able to choose between a 350 euro flight in a A380 or one for 500 euro in a 787 CDG-NYC guess who'll win!
FYI, I flew CDG-IAH-CDG a couple of days ago in AF 773ER and guess what, the planes were filled up to the last single seat...

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 17):
It is my true belief that the super-sized aircraft is on its way out, and that mid-size to moderately large extra-long range flights, flying more often are the future.
Like most of life's problems, this one can be solved with bending -- Bender Unit 22
 
Oykie
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 8:28 am

Back to the topic. I do fear that this will be the last 747. Some has mentioned the possibilities of a passenger version with the same length as the 747-8 freigher. Is this possible?
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
wukka
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Sun Jan 08, 2006 5:51 pm

Quoting Tom12 (Reply 11):
Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 1):
After the 747-8, I would like to see Boeing really counter the A380 by making a triple-decker. It should have two full decks, and a third partial deck. It should also have an elevator for the handicapped

Yeah i agree, that would be pretty cool. I think there will be more versions!

Absolutely! I can't wait for the day when an aircraft is twice as tall as it is long. A 58' octo-decker comes to mind. Just imagine the awe inspired look of the tower controllers glaring skyward at that massive tailfin as it rolls down taxiway Bravo... all the while, Stephen Hawking is pondering string-theory while enjoying his ride on the bank of quad elevators... but only for the way up. The hi-cap spiral superslide for the way down would make it both an airliner and an amusement park. Too bad it wouldn't be quite long enough for a bowling alley and its pinsetters or an olympic sized swimming pool. Oh well... some sacrifices might be worth it.
We can agree to disagree.
 
cloudy
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Mon Jan 09, 2006 12:34 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
A wider fuselage means a wider wing span, too. With the wing span of the A-380 (261' 8") and the B-747-800 (224' 7"), these airplane are about all you can stuff into the airport parking 262' X 262' box.

That is true unless you make significant use of fusalage lift. One possibility would be a blended wing body or semi-blended wing body. But this would be a major risk.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Mon Jan 09, 2006 12:39 am

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 23):
Some has mentioned the possibilities of a passenger version with the same length as the 747-8 freigher. Is this possible?

No, this isn't likely.

The 747-8F is longer than the -8I for balance issues. The extra passenger capacity from the extra stretch would be minimal, and would likely affect the aircraft's CG.
 
art
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Mon Jan 09, 2006 12:49 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 12):
I don't see Boeing stretching 747 any bigger than 748. I mean, certainly the ability is there to drag it bigger, but I doubt they will. I don't think Boeing sees that big of a market for aircraft the size of A380.



Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 13):
The 747 is most structurally efficent at the -8 fuselage length, and any further begins to cause logistic complications and structural inefficency. Boeing wants to consolidate to a three-product family, which at some point, means an all-new product to merge the 777 and 747 series.



Quoting AvObserver (Reply 18):
While a further stretch is feasible, I highly doubt it would be undertaken, unless BCA did it for only a freighter version. The only way to keep its basic vintage design viable is to position it in a unique market niche as they've done.

3 good arguments that the 747-8 will be the last version.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Mon Jan 09, 2006 3:28 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
Why? Doesn't the B-777-300ER fit into the (300+ pax ULR) group?

I imagine the 773 is a not a good platform for a ULR plane, otherwise Boeing would not have proceeded with the 772LR and instead just launched a 773ER, 773LR, and 773F program.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
I agree, too. But, I really don't see a 700-1000 seater coming. If they did build it, I know my bag will always be the last one unloaded. The A-380-900 is already beyond the capabilities of 99.5% of the airports in the world. Even today, you really don't see to many airports jumping up to do the airfield modifications for the -900s smaller brother, the A-380-800.

Yet the future is the future. As airports upgauge for A388s, they will upgauge for A389s and A3810s. And their infrastructures will evolve to handle the extra passengers and payloads.
 
flydreamliner
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Mon Jan 09, 2006 3:40 am

How many aircraft really need to fly as far as the B772LR? Moreover, they don't have a bigger engine. GE90-115 can move 772LR, but runway performance would suffer on a heavier 773LR. 772LR is set against the A345, a low volume, super long range class, whereas the 773ER, which has a long range by any account, even if not as far as 772LR, fills its need well, and sets it as a more attractive competitor to 346.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
HS748
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Mon Jan 09, 2006 4:24 am

Quoting JAM747 (Thread starter):
Is there any possibility that there might be any more versions of the 747 after the 747-800?

Well Boeing certainly has a tradition of taking 40 year old designs and tweaking them a bit, so no reason to believe they won't still be trying to improve their 1960s design in another 20 years.
 
MidnightMike
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Mon Jan 09, 2006 4:32 am

Until an aircraft is developed that has a nose-loader, there will always be a market for the 747 freighter, as for a passenger version, who knows.....

I am also waiting for those that are going to post a picture of an Antonov... Smile
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Rj111
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Mon Jan 09, 2006 4:48 am

Boeing once proposed a semi-URL 747 based on the 744ERF's fuselage, including the shoter upper deck. I belive BR were interested but obviously nothing came of it.

Would be interesting to see what range they could give an aircraft of this size today if they had incorporated the 748 advances.

8500-8700nm's perhaps? I guess such a design would clash with the 773ER, although offer a nice range advantage.

Or what about a 748SP?  laughing 
 
wdleiser
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RE: Could The 747-800 Be The Last Of The 747 Series?

Mon Jan 09, 2006 5:31 am

748SP!!!! Wonder how far that baby would go??? Outspace!?!? lol

If they got it light enough it MIGHT work.